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Saturday, February 28, 2009

February 28th, 2009 Picks

Oi, well 4 out of 12 is even worse than 6 of 13, but a feel a good day coming on. Niagara’s defense was too much for SIena as they missed their shots, Van Pelt had a five stroke swing in the negative while Haas had an eight stroke swing in the positive, and Ramo and Luongo had good games in net. And Chris Andersen with seven blocks coupled with a 10 for 31 shooting performance by Kobe led to the Lakers falling flat as well. That was a slap in the face, for sure. Undaunted I say on to the picks!

1) Rory McIlroy vs. Geoff Ogilvy – McIlroy
2) Ernie Els vs. Stewart Cink – Cink
3) Liverpool @ Middlesbrough – Liverpool win
4) Villanovas winning margin vs. Butler winning margin – Butler winning margin
5) J.J. Henry vs. Briny Baird – Baird
6) Clemson @ Florida State – Florida State
7) McIlroy/Ogilvy winner vs. Els/Cink winner – Els/Cink winner
8) Kevin Harvick vs. Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Harvick
9) Arizona State @ Washington State – Arizona State
10) Texas @ Oklahoma State – Oklahoma State
11) Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers – Orlando
12) Carolina Hurricanes @ Atlanta Thrashers – Carolina
13) USC @ Stanford – Stanford
14) Houston Rockets @ Chicago Bulls – Houston
15) St. Louis Blues @ Phoenix Coyotes – Phoenix
16) South Carolina @ Vanderbilt – South Carolina
17) Minnesota Wild @ Edmonton Oilers – Edmonton
18) Utah State @ Nevada – Utah State
19) Juan Manuel Marquez vs. Juan Diaz -Juan Diaz

Analysis
2) Els has won seven holes with par while Cink has won only three which suggests Els’ opponents have been hitting more bogeys than Cink’s. Els won’t win those holes against Cink. It’s dangerous to pick Cink, however, because he has hit 6 bogeys compared to only four for Els. It’s really tough to pick against Els, but once I’ve made up my mind, it’s made up.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

3) Liverpool is without Torres and Gerrard may be sitting on the bench for most of the game. Still, they scored on Real Madrid at a point in the game where Torres had left with injury and Gerrard had yet to sub into the match. I think Liverpool is the safer bet even though they have not won outright at Middlesbrough since 2002.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

5) Statistically Baird is the better golfer, with a lower putting average, more accurate drives, and more greens in regulation. At the Mayakoba Golf Classic Henry has been hitting the ball amazingly, with 100% fairways hit off drives in the first round and 86% in the second round. He’s also been putting better than he has on average in his career. For all that he’s still only one stroke up on Baird with the two hitting the same score in the second round. I think Henry drops off in this round and Baird maintains, to win by two strokes here.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

7) Hitting two rounds in one day isn’t going to tire these professionals out. If anybody suffers a lapse in concentration at some point in 36 holes I feel it will be one of the younger golfers.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

9) Arizona State is going to want to rebound well from that tough overtime loss to Washington the other night. Washington State has been playing well recently with victories over UCLA on the road and Arizona at home. The AP thinks the Sun Devils will need a good game from Jeff Pendergraph to win and they have been getting them lately. Arizona State is a slight favorite and I think they get the win they desperately want.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

12) Carolina is playing for a playoff spot, while Atlanta is just trying to stay out of last place in their confernece. The Hurricanes have beaten Atlanta in their most recent three games, one of those coming in Atlanta, after losing their first two to the Thrashers. Carolina has been experiencing some terrific goalie play. Atlanta’s home record is worse than Carolina’s road record.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

14) Chicago may be looking to rebound from their loss to Washington in front of Barack Obama. They’re playing a back to back, and Houston is rested. Chicago is 16 – 11 at home while Houston is only 13 – 15 on the road. This is Houston’s first road game since losing McGrady to injury and trading Rafer Alston. The Rockets are really hitting their stride and it will take a terrific game from the Bulls up and down the line for them to get this victory.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

16) South Carolina is coming off an impressive victory over Kentucky, while Vanderbilt has been playing well at home, going 3 – 2 with three recent victories over Alabama, Mississippi, and Kentucky and two losses before that to Tennessee and Florida. Vanderbilt gets most of their scoring from their guards while South Carolina has a bit more interior scoring. The Gamecocks also shoot the ball better from the field. They have more than one big man to tango with A.J. Ogilvy so even if they get into foul trouble they should be fine.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

18) For a team that had the longest winning streak in the nation before their loss at Boise State the Aggies are in meltdown mode. They have been losing on the road and not looking very impressive in their wins. Utah State needs to keep on winning to assure themselves a spot with a good seed in the tournament. I think Nevada will test them, however, and Utah State will win by a few points, if they win at all.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

Friday, February 27, 2009

February 27th, 2009 Picks

Well, 6 out of 13 correct is less than 50, but it’s more than 40. Very tiring day for me today with lots of interviews and whatnot. My morning picks were OK except Fiorentina and Ajax couldn’t find it in their hearts to put it in the goal once in the first half. Damn Vaden also; UAB could easily have won that game without him missing all 17 of his shots. After going something like 10-1 on over/unders since the middle of January I’ve missed the last two! I blame the refs for both of those, in the KSU/Mizzou game for not letting them play hard defense and in yesterday’s for letting them play too hard of defense. OK, OK, so maybe I need to think a little harder on those instead of just crunching numbers. Anyways, on to the picks.

1) Bo Van Pelt vs. Bill Haas – Van Pelt has the lower second round score
2) Luke Donald vs. Ernie Els – Els
3) Geoff Ogilvy vs. Camilla Villegas – Villegas
4) Arminia Bielefeld @ FC Cologne – Arminia Bielefeld win or draw
5) Wales @ France – France
6) Richard Hamilton vs. Hedo Turkoglu – Turkoglu
7) Siena @ Niagara – Siena
8) Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks – New York
9) Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets – Los Angeles
10) Illinois-Chicago @ Loyola (IL) – Loyola (IL)
11) Cleveland @ San Antonio – Cleveland
12) Tampa Bay @ Vancouver – 6 goals or more

Analysis
1) There’s a reason Bo Van Pelt is leading the field at El Camaleon golf course. He hit over 70% of his tee shots on the fairway and reached 13 of the greens with a chance to putt for birdie. Accuracy is important on this course since there is sand/wasteland bordering some fairways, small caves guarding greens, and thick tropical underbrush on other holes. Van Pelt is more accurate on his tee shots than Haas in general. He also putted excellently in the first round, taking the fewest number of putts overall and averaging the second lowest number of putts per green in regulation. Haas will have a difficult time if he can’t drive accurately since he won’t have the chance to gain strokes with his iron play and putting.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

2) Donald has had 6 bogeys in his two matches combined, Els has had zero. Singh had 5 bogeys in his match against Donald and still went 19 holes to lose by 1. Els has experience on his side here and I see him winning 2 and 1.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

4) FC Cologne has 3 outright victories on their home pitch. Both teams are playing very well at the moment. I read the original German press conference and FC Cologne will not be resting many ‘excellent’ players. Still, they’ve found 3 points hard to come by at home and I like Arminia’s chances to pull a draw having won or draw 6 times on the road. 0 – 0 or 1 – 1 seems likely.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

5) France has been forced to make a number of changes to their lineup with many players not having the chance to practice together for even a week. Some of their guys are playing out of position too. France has only lost to Wales in France three times, going back to 1990, however. None of those losses has been by 10 or more points. France has won 6 times in that same period, by 33, 16, 12, 5, 28, and 11. France is the underdog here but they’ve done it before against Wales.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

6) Looks like Hedo has a home weighted average of 17.7 in his past 5 games versus Hamilton’s away weighted average of 16.0. Hedo also is at 1.25 points per shot on the season compared to 1.17 for Hamilton. Guess I’ll see if that pps stat helps for these NBA props too. Hamilton will be starting for the Pistons with AI most likely missing the game. This one will be close but with Hamilton having something to prove and with Prince guarding Turkoglu. Hamilton will have to show me he can shoot like his championship days before I’d take him here. Oh, and Hedo’s wife just had/is having a baby.
Confidence: W0 streak or less

7) Siena went to Allen Fieldhouse and gave the Jayhawks a good game, losing only by 7. Niagara lost at home once to Iona by 8, they also lost to Marist on the road. Siena is the underdog in Vegas but their past results scream favorite here.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

9) C’mon…. even if Nene were to make a miraculous recovery and play in this game it’s the Lakers. They’re playing great basketball right now.
Confidence: W13 streak or less

11) Tim Duncan is a game time decision for the Spurs which should make a big difference here. Tony Parker will have a tough time beating the Cavs by himself if he has to go off for 30 or 40 points again. Cleveland was embarrassed last night in Houston so they will be looking to get their confidence back by defeating a quality opponent. With Duncan I’m not sure, and without Duncan the Cavs win. See if you can’t get news on Duncan’s playing status 10 minutes before this locks before taking it.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

12) These two teams have not played each other previously this season. Last season Tampa Bay had Ramo in net, Vancouver had Luongo, and they scored 7 goals between them. Tonight Luongo should be in net for the Canucks, and the Lightning will have Ramo or McKenna, both of whom have been giving up goals lately. 6 of 10 of Tampa Bay’s most recent games have gone 6 goals or over and 7 of 10 of Vancouver’s have gone over.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

Thursday, February 26, 2009

February 26th, 2009 Picks

Well, at 87% correct yesterday I had my best day by far. It still really gets my goat that of the two games I mis-called I actually picked those two games! Out of all the other choices…. I mis-called the Kansas State and Missouri game, it was only over by 16 points, mainly due to the teams combining for 68 free throws. But hey, that’s the Big12 for some teams. Liverpool looked strong as well, Madrid appeared to have lost some of their recent form. A great away victory for Liverpool, look for them to advance into the quarterfinals. And so on to the picks.

1) Brian Gay vs. David Toms – Gay has a better first round score
2) Aston Villa @ CSKA Moscow – CSKA Moscow advances
3) Woods wins by hole 10-15 vs. Woods wins by 16+ or loses – Woods wins on 16+ or loses
4) Fiorentina @ Ajax Amsterdam – 3 goals or more
5) Florida Panthers @ New York Rangers – Florida Panthers
6) West Virginia @ Cincinnati – Cincinnati has more three pointers
7) Xavier @ St. Joseph’s – 133 points or more
8) Cleveland @ Houston – Cleveland
9) Miami (FL) @ Virginia – Virginia
10) Columbus Blue Jackets @ Edmonton Oilers – 6 goals or more
11) Purdue @ Michigan – Purdue
12) Memphis vs. Murray State – Murray State has a larger winning margin
13) James Harden vs. Justin Dentmon – Harden pts.

Analysis
1) Brian Gay won this event at this course last year. It’s a shorter course which will negate some of Toms’ advantage in driving distance. Gay hits more greens in regulation and is slightly more accurate with his drives which is important on this course with tropical winds being a factor. That should be enough to overcome Toms’ fewer putts per hole. Finally, in the three past events these two have played together Gay has had the lower first round score all three times.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

2) Aston Villa is resting the majority of their starters for this match and CSKA already has an away goal. With all the reserves playing for Aston Villa CSKA Moscow should comfortably pull this out.
Confidence: W15 streak or less

3) Woods had a couple of eagles in the first round, which is great, but he also had a couple of bogeys. Jones couldn’t capitalize on that but Clark should be able to. Clark had zero bogeys in the first round, so he would win those holes against Woods. If Jones could go 16 holes against Woods, Clark should be able to as well.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

5) Florida has had a day to rest while New York is traveling from Toronto after losing to the Maple Leafs yesterday. Vokoun should be back in net for the Panthers, but even if he is not Anderson has had the Rangers’ number this season. New York’s coach has been quoted saying his team looks too tired at the end of games as well. Florida bounces back on the road here with a 2 – 1 or 3 – 1 win.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

6) Cincinnati shoots a higher percentage on threes and has 4 players averaging one made three pointer. West Virginia makes close to the same number of threes and Cincy but have only three players averaging one three or more per game. West Virginia has a good defense and typically disrupts three point shooting teams, but Cincinnati has shot well against other teams in their conference who defend the three well.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

8) Cleveland is on a level above Houston being contenders to reach the Finals while Houston will count itself fortunate to achieve a first round win. Delonte West will be returning for the Cavaliers and they have LeBron. Houston doesn’t have the advantage in many of the matchups, except perhaps with Scola versus Wallace.
Confidence: W9 streak or less

9) Virginia is pretty good at the turnover game, one of Miami’s weaknesses. They’re also at home. I like the upset here and don’t think McClinton can beat Virginia on his own.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

12) Memphis at UAB is a major rivalry game pitting the top two C-USA schools against one another. UAB lost this game by 1 point last year, and Memphis had Derrick Rose. Tyreke Evans is good, but is he that good? Murray State plays in a weaker conference where 20 point swings from home to away games are common. Morehead State is not very good on the road and Murray State is playing well right now. Murray State wins by 15, Memphis wins by 7.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

13) Harden scores 1.66 points per shot while Dentmon shoots a terrific 1.53 points per shot. 0.13 difference is still significant with this stat. Dentmon had his best game of the season at ASU earlier in the year. I think it’s more likely he just had a great game than that ASU can’t defend him. Harden is the ‘safer’ choice, but not by much.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

February 25th, 2009 Picks

Well, I was pretty damn pleased when Inter Milan and Manchester United combined to score zero goals in their match. I was heartbroken when Nebraska completely shut down and lost to Texas A&M by two. Overall, not a great day, but I did get a few nice ones correct. So on to the next days picks!

1) Stewart Cink vs. Richard Sterne – Cink
2) Yukon/Northwest Territores vs. Nova Scotia – Yukon/Northwest Territory
3) Mike Weir vs. Hunter Mahan – Mahan
4) Woods wins on hole 10-15 vs. wins on hole 16+ or loses – Wins on 16+ or loses
5) Tim Clark vs. Retief Goosen – Clark
6) Liverpool @ Real Madrid – Real Madrid
7) Juventus @ Chelsea – 2 goals or fewer
8) Connecticut @ Marquette – Connecticut
9) Kentucky @ South Carolina – South Carolina
10) San Jose @ Detroit – Detroit
11) New York Rangers @ Toronto – Toronto
12) Brandon Roy pts+reb vs. Tim Duncan pts+reb – Roy pts+reb
13) Kansas State @ Missouri – 152 points or fewer
14) Kyle Singler vs. Greivis Vasquez – Singler gets more points
15) Texas Tech @ Texas – Texas Tech has more three pointers
16) Charlotte @ Sacramento – Charlotte

Analysis
2) Nova Scotia has only one victory, against Manitoba. Northwest Territory/Yukon only has two wins, but one of them is a come-from-behind victory over Team Canada.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

4) Pro golfers are good, some better than others. Until Tiger proves he’s back to top form I have to assume he’ll be taken the distance by whoever he plays.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

6) Liverpool returns Gerrard and Alonso which should help them a great deal, but Real Madrid is on a 9 – 0 – 0 tear in the Spanish Premier League, scoring 22 goals and allowing only 2. Plus, Atletico Madrid, a team that Liverpool pulled a draw against twice in group play has been beaten at home by Real Madrid 2 -1 when Real wasn’t playing with such form.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

7) Very dangerous to pick under with Juventus in the house and with Chelsea fielding Anelka and Drogba, two potent strikers. Chelsea should hold strong at home, however. I expect Juventus to do the same, losing to Chelsea 1 – 0 or 2 – 0.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

9) South Carolina has already beaten Kentucky at Kentucky, though it was on a last second shot. South Carolina is as good as the Wildcats this year with two main differences. One, the Gamecocks don’t have a player receiving as much media attention as Jodie Meeks, and two, their conference losses have come to opponents with 16 total losses while Kentucky’s losses have come to opponents with 22 total losses. South Carolina at home here is the clincher.
Confidence: W6 streak or less

11) The Rangers have a better record overall and have a better away record than Toronto has home record. New York is only 1 – 1 – 1 against Toronto, however, losing at Toronto, and losing at home in a shootout.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

13) Yea, these two teams are high powered offenses who should easily put up 153 points. They’re also not bad defensively. Lately they haven’t been scoring as much. In conference Kansas State has gone over in only 2 of 6 away games, and one of those required overtime to go over. Missouri has gone over in 3 of 6 home games. Their last game went over by 7 points, but that’s not a predictor here. Plus, I have a system.
Confidence: W8 streak or less

14) Singler is the more consistent scorer here with a 0.11 advantage in points per shot, which is significant. Vasquez will have to have another phenomenal game wherein he takes 20+ shots, and I don’t see Duke letting that happen after watching UNC go down.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

15) Texas Tech averages more threes per game than Texas and shoots at a higher percentage. Texas has mainly A.J. Abrams to rely on for threes while Tech has three players that average one three pointer or more per game. Even in a 71 – 49 loss Texas Tech shot 7 threes to 6 for Texas.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

Good luck today, sorry about the Nebraska pick if anybody picked them.

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

February 24th, 2009 Picks

Well, went 6-4-0 yesterday, and I could just punch myself for passing up the chance to pick Boston and going with Golden State instead. Especially since I had more confidence in Boston (W7 vs. W3). On to the next streak and on to the picks.

1) AS Roma @ Arsenal – AS Roma win or draw
2) Manchester United @ Inter Milan – 2 goals or fewer
3) O.J. Mayo + Rudy Gay pts. vs. LeBron James pts. – Mayo and Gay
4) Colorado Avalanche @ Atlanta Thrashers – Colorado
5) Penn State @ Ohio State – 127 or over
6) Vancouver Canucks @ Montreal Canadiens – Vancouver
7) Portland @ Houston – Portland
8) Florida @ LSU – LSU
9) Florida State @ Boston College – Florida State
10) Texas A&M @ Nebraska – Nebraska
11) Brigham Young @ San Diego State – Brigham Young

Analysis
1) Arsenal is missing strikers Adebayor and Walcott, midfielder Fabregas, and defender Silvestre while AS Roma is essentially at full strength. Roma has not won in England recently, but today is a day they should not lose.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

2) Internazionale (Inter Milan) has averaged a total score of 1.3 in their home matches in the Champions League; Manchester United has averaged a total score of 1.7 in their away matches. 0 of 3 home matches have gone 3 goals or over for Internazionale and 1 of 3 of Manchester United’s away matches have gone over. Even in their home leagues Inter averages a total score of 2.2 and Manchester United averages a total score of 1.7. Manchester United is missing a number of key defenders, notably Nemanja Vidic, Jonathan Evans, and Gary Neville, but they will have a strong defense on the field with or without O’Shea since they can play midfielders as defenders. Additionally, the only goals the Red Devils have conceded in Champions League play have been when Vidic, Rafael, or Neville have been on the field. Inter Milan is missing Mazzerati on defense, but more than make up for that with the addition of Chivu.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

5) It’s not that Penn State and Ohio State like to eke out victorys with monumental defensive efforts, but they can play that game if forced to (see: Penn St. 38-33 Illinois the other day). These teams know how to put up points and it seems unlikely PSU will shoot as poorly as they did against Illinois. Plus, you’d think OSU could get at least a few free throws, unlike Illinois. And I have a system for these.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

8) I’ll have to do more research but I don’t really see a reason to expect Florida will have a chance in this one on the road. LSU has been playing well lately and one shouldn’t expect Florida to defeat LSU at home when they’ve already lost to Tennessee and Georgia. Again, it seems unlikely they’ll have another 50+% game from beyond the arc when they’re only 37.3% from three on the season.
Confidence: W13 streak or less

10) Nebraska has a great defense, especially at home. They consistently force more turnovers than they give up. They also keep offenses from flowing, as evidenced by only one conference opponent getting 10 assists against them (all the rest had fewer than 10). They will probably be outrebounded by Texas A&M but the Aggies will need another 29 free throw edge to beat the Cornhuskers here.
Confidence: W20 streak or less

Good luck y’all!

Monday, February 23, 2009

February 23rd, 2009 Picks

Bad day, 25% correct is by far the worst I’ve done here. I did get the Genoa pick, Boston, the over/under on Duke and Wake and the Harden more points prop. Overall I’ve been doing great on over/unders in college basketball, but the straight up picks have been shite. And it looks like there are two early morning additions to the schedule and so on to the picks.

1) Tottenham Hotspur @ Hull City – 3 goals or over
2) Quebec vs. Alberta – Quebec
3) Louisville @ Georgetown – Louisville
4) Philadelphia 76ers @ New Jersey Nets – Philadelphia
5) San Jose @ Dallas – 5 goals or less
6) Tennesse-Martin @ Murray State – Murray State
7) Boston Celtics @ Denver Nuggets – Boston
8) Kansas @ Oklahoma – Oklahoma
9) Alberta vs. British Columbia – Alberta
10) Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers – Golden State

Analysis
1) Hull City has gone over in 75% of their home games and Tottenham has gone over in 58% of their away games. Average total goals scored in Hull City home matches: 3.2, average total goals scored in Tottenham away matches: 3.1. Still, on any given Monday a squad may fail to find the net.
Confidence: W3 streak or less.

3) We already saw this game on here and the Hoyas showed they don’t have what it takes to win this kind of game. Cardinals win, just like Marquette did.
Confidence: W12 streak or less

6) Murray State lost at Tennessee-Martin by four points and shot 50% from the foul line. They are a 70+% free throw shooting team, so they easily could have won that game. Murray State also has an impressive 9 point loss at Missouri in their non-conference schedule. Tennessee-Martin lacks a game like that on their schedule. Lester Hudson will give the Skyhawks a big push and it should be a close game. Murray State has also proven to have the capability to choke away close games. I still think they win at home.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

7) Surprising to see this matchup on here as Nene just went down for Denver during the final minute of their game against Milwaukee yesterday. Both teams are on the second of a back-to-back, with Boston hammering Phoenix in Phoenix and Denver losing to the Bucks. Kenyon Martin looks to return tonight with Renaldo Balkman also seeing a few minutes. Still, the Celtics are a mature team and Denver will be hard pressed to beat them a second time this season. Kenyon Martin may come back strong, or gingerly, depending on how tight his back is.
Confidence: W7 streak or less

10) Golden State is more talented with Al Thornton, Chris Kaman, and Marcus Camby all out. The loss of Monta Ellis will hurt, but they should get Biedrins back. With the Clippers looking like they’ve quit on the season by now the Warriors look like a solid pick.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

If I didn’t bold the pick it means I wouldn’t pick it. Though I’m tempted with Quebec/Alberta, the Quebecois have been doing well so far.

Sunday, February 22, 2009

February 22nd, 2009 Picks

Agghh! What a terrible day; while my picks went 9-9-0, mainly thanks to NASCAR, curling, and NHL, my entry obtained a record of 1-5-0 for the day. And so now, on to the picks.

1) Genoa @ Napoli – Genoa win or draw
2) Hamburg SV @ Bayer Leverkusen – Bayer Leverkusen win
3) Newfoundland/Labradour vs. British Columbia – Newfoundland/Labradour
4) New York Knicks @ Toronto Raptors – New York
5) Villanova @ Syracuse – Syracuse
6) Pete Weber/Chris Barnes vs. Mike Fagan/Jeff Carter – Weber/Barnes
7) Northern Trust Open Winner’s 4th round score – 67 or under
8) Boston Celtics @ Phoenix Suns – Boston
9) Yukon/Northwest vs. New Brunswick – Yukon/Northwest
10) Michigan @ Iowa – Michigan
11) Seton Hall @ St. John’s – Seton Hall
12) Dwayne Wade pts+ast vs. Dwight Howard pts+reb – Howard pts+reb
13) Jimmie Johnson vs. Kyle Busch – Johnson
14) Wake Forest @ Duke – 151 points or more
15) Allen Iverson vs. Mo Williams – Williams scores more points
16) Chase Buddinger vs. James Harden – Harden scores more points

1) Genoa has been ‘hot’ on the road winning or drawing their last 5 of their last 6, their most recent away match losing 3 – 0 to AS Roma. Napoli has lost or drawn their last 3 at home. Napoli is also without their first string goali (Iezzo) or their second strong goalie (Gianello). The return of Sculli should also buoy Genoa here.
2) Bayer Leverkusen are completely healthy while Hamburg is missing defender Bastian Reinhardt and striker Mladen Petric. Still, this could easily go Hamburgs way as Bayer have lost or drawn their last three matches at home. My gut says go with the lower % here, however.
5) Simple, Syracuse is at home and their conference is better represented in March Madness if Syracuse wins this game and locks up an at-large bid.
7) Mickelson leads by four strokes. If Mickelson shoots 4 under or better it’s guaranteed to be 67 or less.
9) Yukon/Northwest wins due to their unique form of beauty (see the large one on the left). I would say I’m confident in Newfoundland/Labradour, but it’s difficult to say if they are truly uglier than British Columbia.
10) Another team on the bubble who need to basically win out their final games to make it to the tournament. Should be a tough game but Michigan may be able to pressure and trap Iowa at will without fear of fouling near the end.
11) Wake and Duke are not Big10 teams who play 2-3 zone all game. The last game was well under at 138, but hey, I’ve got a system here.
16) Buddinger has a lower pps (points per shot) than Harden, significantly. If Harden can get some shots off and get to the line at home he should win.

That’s all for today, best of luck to all of ye. But bestest luck of all to me. =D

Saturday, February 21, 2009

February 21st, 2009 Picks

Another poor day for me today. I picked against myself on Borussia Dortmund and ended up with another loss due to goals scored after the 80th minute. SC Freiburg was unable to muster more than one goal, while FC Augsburg could not put in even one. Many shots off target in that match. Ogilvie birdied the final hole to tie Ernie Els in a close push. Niagara demolished Illinois State, and in retrospect I should have seen it coming. The numbers and home court supported Niagara. Nevada pulled out a close one against VCU, wish I’d picked that one. Orlando played a nice game, leading Charlotte by 13 or 15 for most of the game. Houston came back in the second half against Dallas and repulsed their runs in the fourth to take a victory at home. And in the final game of the night David West turned in a lazy performance, while Pau was Pau. West turned the ball over multiple times while driving to the basket and walked up the court on offense until overtime. New Orleans tried to bump and push Gasol to tire him out, but he played well, scoring on dunks when the defense lost him. Gasol 20, West 16. And now, the picks!

1) Chelsea @ Aston Villa – Aston Villa win or draw
2) Inter Milan @ Bologna FC – Inter Milan win
3) Notre Dame @ Providence – Providence
4) Geoff Ogilvie vs. Phil Mickelson – Ogilvie has a lower 3rd round score
5) Chicago Blackhaws @ Dallas Stars – Chicago
6) Marquette @ Georgetown – Georgetown
7) Ontario vs. Newfoundland/Labradour – Ontario
8) Kyle Busch vs. Ron Hornaday Jr. – Busch
9) North Carolina winning margin vs. Landon Milbourne points – UNC margin
10) Miami (OH) @ Evansville – Miami (OH)
11) Utah State @ St. Mary’s – St. Mary’s
12) Texas A&M @ Texas Tech – Texas A&M
13) Boston Bruins @ Florida Panthers – Boston
14) Greg Biffle vs. Carl Edwards – Edwards has a better final position
15) Oklahoma @ Texas – Oklahoma
16) Calgary Flames @ Edmonton Oilers – Calgary
17) New Brunswick vs. Prince Edward Island – Prince Edward Island
18) Brigham Young @ UNLV – Brigham Young

1) Chelsea is missing Ashley Cole, while Aston Villa is missing Martin Laursen, advantage even. Chelsea are also missing Essien who started in their most impressive road victory, against Wigan Athletic. The other injuries should not have a large effect, though Carvalho returning could give Chelsea a boost, as could Emile Heskey returning for Aston Villa. In the end, Chelsea has not shown they can defeat anybody in the promotion ranks away at their pitch.
2) Inter Milan should dominate this game. Burdisso and Chivu being out is not important, though if Stankovic sits to rest for Manchester United it would hurt Inter. Volpi being out for Bologna is not good, but not bad, they are really just hoping for Mundingayi to return. Bologna is just not a good home team, with the fewest number of wins and draws of any opponent Inter has faced, including relegation squads. It would be a major victory for Bologna to pull even a draw.
3) For college matchups some friends of mine have devised a simple formula, it’s been working so far for straight up matchups, and total points over/unders. It predicted Niagara yesterday, but I didn’t listen. Providence is at home, and should win by 10 or more.
4) Ogilvie drives about as far as Mickelson, averages more birdies per round, hits more greens in regulation, drives more accurately, and has fewer putts per hole.
5) Chicago is missing their main goalie Khabibulin, and their top goal scorer Patrick Sharp. Huet is the backup goalie and is 3-1 in his last four starts. Dallas is missing some big point men as well in Zubov, Richards, and Morrow. Both teams are hot right now, but Chicago should get more shots on goal and eventually prevail.
6) Marquette is a very slight favorite according to the formula, but Georgetown is at home and experience has shown that the home court advantage is enough to offset being a slight underdog. Georgetown by 3 in overtime.
7) Ontarios curling team is uglier than Newfoundland/Labroudor, plus they have some old women who must be really good at curling, otherwise why wouldn’t some younger, prettier lady be on the team?
8) Busch won the last truck race, he has a shot to win this one as well.
9) UNC is a 12 point favorite or so, Milbourne averages 13 points per game. The Tarheels defense will keep him quiet, however. He has had too many games with under 10 points and UNC should win by 10, 15, or even 20+.
10) Miami (OH) is the underdog but I think they’ll win by 6 or 7 and have a big lead at some point in the game.
11) St. Mary’s College looked pretty damn good against Gonzaga, and they’re at home. USU has a real shot to win this, but SMC should run away in the end.
12) Texas A&M is a 2 point favorite, and I agree.
13) Boston is the favorite, though the two teams are evenly matched in terms of GAA for the goalies, save%, and average shots on goal. Florida has been better in the past 10 games, but Chicago’s defeat of them Wednesday is the first taste of things to come.
14) Carl Edwards finished last years circuit hot and is continuing into this year.
15) Oklahoma may be on the road, but they have something to prove. I see them as big favorites and will hopefully finish the game strong, instead of starting strong and letting Texas back into it.
16) Calgary just lost their second leading scorer to injury, but Edmonton has lost two of their top defensemen. Without their help Calgary can look forward to another 6 to 4 type of win.
17) Prince Edward Island. Seriously, check out their team photo. See those two on the right? They’re the ones to watch out for.
18) Brigham Young and UNLV are pretty good shooting teams and will make you pay for leaving them open. BYU a little moreso than UNLV. Advantage, BYU, and a handy 7 point win.

18 games is quite a bit, here’s hoping you can find two or six in there to turn to your advantage. Good luck ever’buddy.

Friday, February 20, 2009

February 20th, 2009 Picks

Well, today was a turr-ible picking day for me, rather than going with a couple of winners in Lamont Mack and Mike Rosario I switched my picks to the Panthers, who got thwomped by the Blackhawks, and Fresno State, who lost a close one to the Rainbow Warriors at home. The soccer picks were fairly brutal too, with the Udinese match going over in the 81st minute and FC Copenhagen tying things up in the first minute of injury time. On a brighter note my over/under formula predicted total points in the Duke game to be 141.7 and they were actually 145, only 3.3 points off. And then, to make everything fine the Utah Jazz defeated Boston, 90-85. Yeah, yeah, Garnett was out for the second half, but Carlos Boozer was out for the entire game! Just to be complete, Weir dominated, taking the lead at the Northern Trust Open, Dudi beat Serra in straight sets, going to tie-breaks for both, Mack outscored Brown 12-2 in the second half to win, Wisconsin played great defense to make many more threes than Indiana, Columbus won in a shootout, and Minnesota took Calgary to overtime before falling. Finally, Darren Collison had a fine game, scoring 17 points with 5 assists to Thomas’ 12 points and 2 assists. So onto the picks.

1) Geoff Ogilvy vs. Ernie Els – Ogilvie will have a lower 2nd round score
2) FC Augsburg @ SC Freiburg – 3 or more
3) Borussia Dortmund @ Schalke 04 – Borussia Dortmund win or draw
4) Illinois State @ Niagara – Illinois State
5) Orlanda Magic @ Charlotte Bobcats – Orlando
6) Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets – Dallas
7) Virginia Commonwealth @ Nevada – Nevada
8) David West vs. Pau Gasol – David West scores more points

1) Ogilvie has been playing better this year overall and has fewer rounds at even or over par than Els.
2) Freiburg could easily put 3 on Augsburg on their own, but I see 2-1 as more likely.
3) Borussia Dortmund just had a road loss against Bayern Munich, they’ve followed a road loss with a road win or tie every time this year.
4) Illinois State just has more talented players than Niagara I think and are ranked slightly higher in RPI. They also play in a slightly tougher conference.
5) Charlotte doesn’t have a Chris Paul to attack Orlando with.
6) Houston is missing Rafer Alston, though Aaron Brooks should fill in nicely. Tracy McGrady is also out, but Houston is still pretty good without him. I see Dirk Nowitzki and Terry outpacing Yao and Artest here.
7) Nevada is a tough pick, VCU is good, but not so much on the road. Nevada has the size to avoid getting pushed around and stay up on VCUs big guards so I expect them to struggle a bit, giving Nevada the advantage. Plus, VCU rarely travels so far for a game. They did beat New Mexico in Cancun, but UNM players probably partied before that one anyways.
8) David West is almost a sure thing I think. Pau Gasol has been scoring below average at home recently, while West has been scoring above average on the road recently. Another 40 point game in L.A. for West?

I’ll be taking the 3+ and Borussia Dortmund in the morning then probably Illinois State and David West, though my mind could definitely be changed on ISU.

Thursday, February 19, 2009

February 19th, 2009 Picks

Yesterday I made the mistake of going with the over/under in hockey rather than rolling with Oklahoma State. I blame the 5-on-3 power play that led to the goal that put it over. CSKA Moscow and Florida State handled their business, however, to give me two green tacos. Overall the picks went 8-3-0, a little over 70%, not bad. And so on to the next days picks.

1) Phil Mickelson vs. Mike Weir – Weir will have a lower 1st round score
2) Dudi Sela vs. Florent Serra – Serra
3) Udinese @ Lech Poznan – 2 goals or less
4) Manchester City @ FC Copenhagen – Manchester City win
5) Derrick Brown vs. Lamont Mack – Mack has more points
6) Duke @ St. John’s – 139 points or more
7) Columbus @ Toronto – Columbus
8) Chicago @ Florida – Florida
9) Calgary @ Minnesota – Minnesota
10) Mike Rosario points vs. Villanova winning margin – Rosario points
11) Wisconsin @ Indiana – Indiana has more 3-pointers
12) Hawaii @ Fresno State – Fresno State
13) Isaiah Thomas vs. Darren Collison – Thomas has more points+assists

Udinese is apparently more concerned with Serie A so I see them as being content to play defense which should take away Lech Poznan’s counter-attack. I’m thinking 0-0 tie or 1-1 tie. As for FC Copenhagen they have lost to St. Etienne who is in danger of relegation in French Ligue 1. St. Etienne has been playing great in UEFA, taking out Greek uber-champ Olympiakos in Greece 3-1, but still. They also only managed a tie against a mid-level Norwegian club. Manchester City will be healthy and playing more of their top players who sat in the Santander game they lost on the road. I will probably be taking 2-, then Man. City, followed by Lamont Mack, Mike Rosario or Fresno State.

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

February 18th, 2009 Picks

Yesterday was below average. Took Burnley instead of Luton Town; Burnley managed to score one goal on something like 15 shots and 12 shots on goal. Very disappointing for them and us Burnley pickers. I then took Hazell rather than Purdue or the over points prop. Hazell was getting trounced and then decided to make a flurry of threes, free throws, and shots to end up losing by one in the last three minutes. Then the Lakers made things easy by trouncing Atlanta and holding Horford to 6 points in 21 minutes. I’m going to call a perfect day today, so on to the picks.

1) CSKA Moscow @ Aston Villa – CSKA Moscow win or draw
2) Hamburg SV @ NEC Nijmegen – NEC Nijmegen win or draw
3) Denver @ Philadelphia – Philadelphia
4) Miami (FL) @ Florida State – Florida State
5) Providence @ Louisville – 147 points or more
6) Luke Harangody vs. Da’Sean Butler – Harangody has more points
7) Orlando @ New Orleans – New Orleans
8) Virginia Tech @ Virginia – Virginia
9) Kansas vs. North Carolina – Kansas has a larger margin of victory
10) Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech – Oklahoma State
11) Anaheim Ducks @ L.A. Kings – 5 goals or fewer

These picks are a mixture of research, gut instincts, and outside opinion. Past four days these picks have been 45-70% correct. Going with CSKA this morning, the Florida State, and then…. hmmm…. the 5 and under. All picks will be final by the time the grass hockey games start this morning. Good luck ever’buddy!

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

February 17th, 2009 Picks

Went 3-3-1 yesterday with my picks, so going 2-1 on my actual picks and losing the one by 1 point in overtime it was a pretty good day overall. SC Freiburg took control of their match after subbing in Rodionov for Iddrisou. Delaware State made a host of bad plays to go down by one to NC A&T in overtime. The Thrashers and Kings took care of business and tallied 6 goals in the first period. So on to the picks.

1) Coventry City @ Burnley – Burnley win
2) Brighton @ Luton Town – Luton Town win
3) Michigan State @ Purdue – Purdue
4) Minnesota Timberwolves @ Washington Wizards – Minnesota
5) Buffalo @ Toronto – Buffalo
6) New Jersey @ Florida – New Jersey
7) Maryland @ Clemson – 145 points or over
8) Jeremy Hazell vs. Wesley Matthews – Hazell (by 4 points)
9) Kentucky @ Vanderbilt – Kentucky
10) Ottawa @ Colorado – Ottawa
11) Al Horford points vs. L.A. Lakers winning margin – Lakers winning margin

Probably going to roll with Burnley, then decide on the rest during game day. I like Hazell and the over and Purdue, so it’s a choice between those for the 2nd game. Then going with the Lakers winning margin. These teams are unchanged from the end of last year during which time Atlanta visited LA. Horford scored four points. The Lakers won by 29.

Monday, February 16, 2009

February 16th, 2009 Picks

Today was fairly good, went 3-2-0 with Atalanta, Illinois State, and Vancouver pulling me up and the Rangers and Valparaiso dragging me down. Today was also the day that saw me finally getting my red star! Now it’s on to the blue star. Razznmarbles in TACOS has gotten to W12 and should be on the leaderboard now, congratulations! Oh, and my picks for yesterday went 7-3-1; I’m having more and more of these above .600 days. And so, on to the picks.

1) Dustin Johnson vs. Rest of Field – Johnson wins
2) SC Freiburg @ Hansa Rostock – Freiburg wins
3) North Carolina A&T @ Delaware State – Delaware State
4) Pittsburgh @ Connecticut – Connecticut
5) Marist @ St. Peter’s – St. Peter’s
6) Texas @ Texas A&M – Texas
7) Atlanta @ Los Angeles – 6 goals or more

If I had to pick against myself here I would take Texas A&M. Delaware State has played against so many tough teams like Notre Dame, West Virginia, Kentucky, UCONN, Dayton, and Ohio State, their record is deceptive. I also like the 6 goals or more, with the Thrashers and Kings giving up a combined 6.24 goals per game and over 50% of their games ending with combined scores of 6 or more. Marist is 1-10 on the road and St. Peter’s is coming off solid wins over Canisius and Rider. Connecticut has Thabeet, they should be able to overcome Dyson’s absence at home. Any questions?

Sunday, February 15, 2009

February 15th, 2009 Picks

Dang, today was a nice day for me. Our formula for picking who scores the most points matchups went 2-0 today. Kansas overcame a 16 point deficit to defeat Kansas State. The Austin Peay game was exciting as well. The teams had 5 points in the first six minutes and only 61 points by halftime. It looked to be over. Even though the teams were scoring at the right pace for most of the game those first six minutes had put ‘em in too deep of a hole. Well, thank goodness for 21 points in the final minute! The final game I decided to pick against myself and go with Nevada who scored five straight points in the final 1:17 to win 47-46. whew With that, it’s on to the picks.

1) AS Roma @ Atalanta – Atalanta win or draw
2) Philadelphia Flyers @ New York Rangers – New York
3) Dustin Johnson vs. Rest of Field – Johnson wins
4) John Nolen vs. Rest of Field – Nolen wins
5) Rider @ Manhatten – Manhatten
6) San Jose Sharks @ New Jersey Devils – New Jersey
7) Dale Earnhardt Jr. vs. Jeff Gordon – Earnhardt Jr.
8) Illinois-Chicago @ Valparaiso – Valparaiso
9) Illinois State @ Drake – Illinois State
10) Eastern Conference vs. Western Conference – Western
11) Montreal Canadiens @ Vancouver Canucks – Vancouver

I’m liking Atalanta, Manhatten, Valpo, and Illinois State most. Feel free to ask if you’d like more of the reasoning behind the picks. Happy taco =]

Saturday, February 14, 2009

February 14th, 2009 Picks

Happy Valentines day! Don’t forget to get to get that special TACO something nice to show them you love them. Just wanted to quickly say the TACOS are awesome, great analysis, great sense of humor, and real solid folks. Yesterday was a bad day, lost all three of my picks with Perry, Hayward, and Loyola. Very entertaining to see ESPN, CBS, and Yahoo all have such difficulty determining how many points Hayward and Mayo scored. =D And now, for the picks.

1) Hull City Tigers @ Sheffield United Blades – Hull City wins
2) DaJuan Summers vs. Eric Devendorf – Devendorf scores more points
3) Pat Perez vs. Jason Gore – Perez
4) Tony Stewart vs. Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Stewart
5) A.J. Abrams vs. Corey Higgins – Higgins scores more points
6) Kansas @ Kansas State – Kansas
7) Deonta Vaughn points vs. Pittsburg winning margin – Vaughn points
8) Creighton @ Southern Illinois – Creighton
9) Pittsburgh @ Toronto – Pittsburgh
10) Tennessee State @ Austin Peay – 159 points or more
11) Kapono or Cook vs. The Rest – One of the rest wins
12) Ohio State @ Wisconsin – 124 points or more
13) Calgary @ Phoenix – Phoenix
14) Nevada @ Hawaii – Hawaii

I like Hull City, Devendorf, Deonte Vaughn, and the over on Austin Peay, Creighton, and Kansas the most. Should be an exciting day, so good luck to all on your quest for 6-0!

Friday, February 13, 2009

February 13th, 2009 Picks

Ouch, what a rough day today was. Overall my quick picks were very nice, going 7-3-1for the day. I went 1-1-1 in my three official picks. My Ebbsfleet pick turned out to be a good one with Ebbs leading Burton 1 – 0 in the 65th minute, but it was literally a blizzard out there. With the fans booing heartily the referee called off the game, forcing Ebbsfleet and Burton to play again later from the start with the score 0 – 0. Stony Brook turned out to be a good bet, downing Albany by 11. Then the over/under with Gonzaga and St. Mary’s. It was looking ‘over’ all night, but both teams went cold near the end. Gonzaga missed a three with 1:30 or so left and rebounded the ball, but they turned it over, passing it to St. Mary’s for an easy deuce. After that it was fouls and St. Mary’s burying threes. The game ended with 142 points scored by both teams, 5 too many for the ‘under’ pick. It was a sad one for me as I was finally going to obtain my red star with a five game streak. C’est la vie. On to the picks!

1) J.B. Holmes vs. Kenny Perry – Perry has a lower 2nd round
2) FC Utrecht win @ Willem II Tilburg win – Willem II Tilburg
3) Josh Mayo vs. Gordon Hayward – Hayward
4) Todd Bodine vs. Kyle Busch – Bodine
5) Iona @ Loyola (MD) – Loyola (MD)
6) Villanova @ West Virginia – Villanova

Thursday, February 12, 2009

February 12th, 2009 Picks

After a rough start yesterday with Albania failing to score against Malta things took a turn for the better. Spain defeated England 2-0, while A.J. Price hit 4 three pointers helping him along in defeating Jonny Flynn. Oklahoma had a tough time breaking away from Baylor, but in the end were not to be stopped. And now, onto the picks.

1) Davis Love III vs. Hunter Mahan – Davis Love III
2) Paul Goydos vs. Joe Ogilvie – Paul Goydos
3) Burton Albion win @ Ebbsfleet United win or draw – Ebbsfleet United
4) Temple @ St. Joseph’s – Temple
5) Albany @ Stony Brook – Stony Brook
6) Terrence Williams + Earl Clark vs. Luke Harangody – Harangody
7) UCLA @ Arizona State – Arizona State
8) Illinois @ Northwestern – Illinois
9) Brandon Roy vs. Stephen Jackson – Jackson
10) Calgary @ Los Angeles – Los Angeles
11) Gonzaga @ St. Mary’s – 137 points or fewer

I’m thinking Ebbsfleet, since they have only lost at home 4 times, to some of the better teams in the league. Then Luke Harangody, since Notre Dame is at home I’m hoping he gets some free throws. Williams and Clark are poor free throw shooters and only average FG shooters (~42% apiece). Then Illinois (hey they’re due for one on the road) or Arizona State (ASU is a good defense, they won’t let UCLA blow them out) and hopefully with the Gonzaga game on the same channel they’ll delay the matchup allowing us to pick Gonzaga @ St. Mary’s. The Gaels are missing their top scorer, but should still play hard with the winner being that much closer to the conference title. That should lead to a low scoring affair, so I’ll go with 137 points or less. Of course, I may change my mind before then. It’s best to keep ones options open. =]

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

February 11th, 2009 Picks

Well, yesterday was my worst day thus far as I went only 3-7-0. The three victories came with Michigan State and Michigan going for 96 total points, 37 points below the over/under, Seton Hall downed DePaul rather easily, and Golden State was a winner with 144 points! Every other pick I made was a total bust, though Cunningham came awfully close to winning that prop. Ah well, onto today’s picks.

1) Poland win vs. Wales win or draw – Wales
2) Albania win @ Malta win or draw – Albania
3) Argentina win @ France win – France
4) England win or draw @ Spain win – Spain
5) Mexico win or draw @ USA win – USA
6) Xavier @ Dayton – Dayton
7) Jonny Flynn pts. vs. A.J. Price pts.+ast. – A.J. Price
8) Terrance Woodbury pts. vs. Tennessee winning margin – Woodbury pts.
9) North Carolina @ Duke – North Carolina
10) Oklahoma @ Baylor – Oklahoma
11) Texas Tech @ Kansas State – 154 points or more
12) Montreal @ Edmonton – Edmonton
13) Calgary @ Anaheim – Anaheim

Now, going by yesterdays results you would do best to pick opposite these picks. As for my actual picks I’m thinking Albania, Spain, A.J. Price, and Oklahoma.

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

February 10th, 2009 Picks

3-2-0 yesterday, 31-36-1 overall. I really seem to be stuck at around .500. I wonder how my quick picks would do if I just flipped a coin. Leeds won their match 2-0, Blair scored more points 8-4, Florida A&M and Norfolk state score 165, the Lady Tar Heels won by 15, Carroll scored more points 22-9 and Alabama State made twice as many threes as MSVU 10-5. And now, on to todays picks.

1) Tranmere win or draw @ Colchester United win – Colchester United wins
2) Providence @ South Florida – South Florida
3) Old Dominion @ Hofstra – Old Dominion
4) Michigan State @ Michigan – 133 or under
5) Wesley Matthews vs. Dante Cunningham – Cunningham scores more
6) Oklahoma State @ Texas – Oklahoma State 3-pointers
7) Florida @ Kentucky – Florida
8) Clemson @ Boston College – Boston College
9) Seton Hall @ DePaul – Seton Hall
10) New York Knicks @ Golden State Warriors – Golden State

Lot of upsets here, let’s see if the day ends up as wild as I’m predicting. =D

Monday, February 9, 2009

February 9th, 2009 Picks

Today started out so well with my first 5 picks being correct, but quickly took a turn for the worse with my final 9 being wrong for a grand total of 5-9-0. Got my soccer pick correct which means I’m 11-3-1 in my last 15 soccer picks, but dang it! I should be doing better at basketball, a sport I’ve spent my entire life watching. Ah well, on to todays picks:

1) Millwall @ Leeds United – Leeds wins
2) Da’Sean Butler vs. DeJuan Blair – Blair scores more points
3) Florida A&M @ Norfolk State – 135 points or fewer
4) Duke @ North Carolina – North Carolina
5) Sherron Collins vs. DeMarre Carroll – Carroll scores more points
6) Mississippi Valley State @ Alabama State – Mississippi Valley State more 3’s

Good luck to everyone!

Sunday, February 8, 2009

February 8th, 2009 Picks

Yesterday was a terrible day for me, while my picks for the day were 6-8-0 overall I ended up picking five losers for my streak. All told my 4 day total is 23-25-1. Since I’m feeling like these analyses are just rationalizations, I’m going to skip the reasoning behind picks and just throw ’em all out there.

1) Manchester United @ West Ham United – 2 goals or under
2) Seton Hall @ Rutgers – Seton Hall
3) Detroit Red Wings @ Pittsburge Penguins – Detroit
4) Tim Duncan vs. Paul Pierce – Duncan
5) Purdue @ Illinois – Illinois
6) John Rollins wins or not – John Rollins wins
7) Norm Duke wins or not – Norm Duke does not win
8) Creighton @ Northern Iowa – Northern Iowa
9) Wisconsin @ Penn State – Penn State
10) Los Angeles Lakers @ Cleveland Cavaliers – Cleveland
11) Kobe Bryant vs. LeBron James – LeBron James
12) Washington @ Stanford – Stanford
13) Phoenix Suns @ Detroit Pistons – Detroit
14) Utah Jazz @ Golden State Warriors – Utah

Saturday, February 7, 2009

February 7th, 2009 Picks

Much better yesterday, went 6-2-1 with Villegas, Dartmouth, Buffalo, Jamison, Dallas, and Jackson all winning. Canisius and Chris Henry lost, while Hertha Berlin tied Arminia Bielefeld. That brings my overall total to 17-17-1. Today looks like a major day with the possibility for as many as six(!) picks, if the college basketball games finish quickly. Well, on to the picks!

1) Fulham win or draw @ Wigan Athletic win – Wigan Athletic
2) France @ Ireland – France
3) Luke Donald vs. Camilo Villegas – Villegas gets a lower 3rd round score
4) Texas Longhorns @ Nebraska Cornhuskers – Texas
5) Southern Illinois Salukis @ Missouri State Bears – Southern Illinois
6) Northwestern Wildcats @ Iowa Hawkeyes – Iowa
7) Connecticut vs. Davidson – Connecticut has larger margin of victory
8) Buffalo @ Ottawa – Buffalo
9) Butler Bulldogs @ Wright State Raiders – Butler
10) Colorado @ St. Louis – Colorado
11) Memphis Tigers @ Gonzaga Bulldogs – Gonzaga
12) Mac Danzig vs. Josh Neer – Josh Neer
13) Chicago @ Vancouver – Chicago
14) Pacific Tigers @ Long Beach State 49ers – Long Beach State

I’m picking Wigan Athletic since Fulham has only scored 3 goals in 11 road games. The tie is a danger, but I don’t think they have it in them to pull off another 0-0 tie.

France is the underdog against Ireland, but Ireland has had trouble with France lately.

I like Villegas to win again in golf, Donald has had rounds of -3 and -2 while Villegas has had rounds of -9 and -2. Villegas is the lead horse, so why switch?

Texas @ Nebraska should be a close matchup, though most of the sports books have Texas as a 3-4.5 point favorite.

Southern Illinois has already beaten Missouri State, and they’ve played well against the top teams in the conference.

Iowa has a 10-2 home record while Northwestern has a 2-5 road record.

Connecticut is playing a Michigan team that has been giving up 18 point losses lately; Charleston lost to Davidson by 4 last time they played this season.

Buffalo is hot lately, plus Ottawa has a worse record.

Butler and Wright State are rivals, with Wright State playing some great games against Butler and beating them. Still, Butler hasn’t gotten to where they are by not being good on the road.

Picking Colorado since they seem to be nearly unbeatable lately.

I like Gonzaga to defend their home.

Josh Neer has been winning more fights than Danzig lately.

The Blackhawks have had Vancouvers number this season.

Long Beach State is favored in the sports books, they’re at home, and they’ve already beaten Pacific on the road this season.

Friday, February 6, 2009

February 6th, 2009 Picks

Wow, well yesterday turned out to be a bit of a bust with my picks overall performing at 4-9-0, bringing my record for the past two days to an unenviable 11-15-0. Fortunately I ended up at 2-1-0 for my official picks with PSV Eindhoven scoring six goals, the Jazz thrashing the Mavs, and Alonzo Gee having a mediocre game to lose to A.J. Ogilvy in the points+rebounds prop.

Today is a new day and so on to the picks.

1) Camilo Villegas vs. Padraig Harrington – Villegas gets the lower second round score
2) Hertha Berlin @ Arminia Bielefeld – Hertha Berlin wins
3) Fairfield @ Canisius – Canisius
4) Brown @ Dartmouth – Dartmouth
5) Montreal @ Buffalo – Buffalo
6) Carmelo Anthony vs. Antawn Jamison – Antawn Jamison more points+rebounds
7) New York @ Dallas – Dallas
8) Chris Henry vs. Yusaf Mack – Chris Henry
9) Stephen Jackson vs. Amare Stoudemire – Jackson gets more points

Villegas is 8 strokes ahead of Harrington so I say go with the better performer there and expect Villegas to do at least as well as Harrington. Hertha Berlin is riddled with injuries but they’re still a much better team than Bielefeld. Fairfield has two of their top guys out and Canisius is at home. Dartmouth is also at home, and since I don’t know much about Brown either I’ll go with the home crowd. Jamison is a beast and is liable to go for 40+, I’d be surprised if Carmelo got over 30. The Stars have been playing well lately and went down in a tough one against Colorado, while New York has been struggling lately. I’m looking for the home team to pull one off here tonight. Chris Henry is ranked a bit ahead of Yusaf Mack, but it’s difficult to tell who has the advantage without doing some in-depth research, so I went with the fan favorite here, Henry. Finally we have Jackson vs. Stoudemire. In their game on Wednesday Jackson went off for 30 points compared to Stoudemires 13. Stoudemire is capable of winning this but with trade rumors flying around he may be distracted.

Thursday, February 5, 2009

February 5th, 2009 Picks

Yesterday my overall record ended up at 7-6-0. Unfortunately I ended up at 1-2-0 for my actual picks. Thankfully, tomorrow is another day. So here are my picks:

1) Woody Austin vs. J.B. Holmes – Austin has a lower 1st round score
2) ADO Den Haag @ PSV Eindhoven – 4 goals or more
3) Alonzo Gee vs. A.J. Ogilvy – Gee has more points+rebounds
4) Temple @ Xavier – Under 136 points
5) Los Angeles @ Boston – Boston
6) Edmonton @ St. Louis – St. Louis
7) Dallas @ Colorado – Dallas
8) Illinois @ Wisconsin – Illinois
9) Tennessee-Martin @ Austin Peay – Tennessee-Martin
10) Chicago @ Calgary – Chicago
11) Dallas @ Utah – Utah
12) Washington @ California – Washington
13) Fresno State @ Hawaii – Fresno State

I’ll probably take the over on the soccer game, the under on the Xavier/Temple game, Tennessee-Martin, and Fresno State.

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

February 4th, 2009 Picks

Alright, this is more for my own edification, I’m going to pick all the games the night before they are played. So here we go:

1) Napoli @ Juventus – 2 goals or fewer
2) Liverpool @ Everton – Everton win or draw
3) W.Virginia @ Syracuse – Syracuse
4) New Jersey @ Washington – New Jersey
5) Boston @ Philadelphia – Boston
6) Wake Forest @ Miami(FL) – Wake Forest
7) Atlanta @ Minnesota – Minnesota
8) Villanova @ Providence – Providence
9) Portland @ Dallas – Portland
10) Duke @ Clemson – 142 or less
11) Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma St. – Oklahoma greater margin of victory
12) DeMarre Carroll vs. AJ Abrams – AJ Abrams scores more
13) Phoenix @ Golden State – Phoenix

I’m actually picking Everton, Wake Forest, and Phoenix