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And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Thursday, February 26, 2009

February 26th, 2009 Picks

Well, at 87% correct yesterday I had my best day by far. It still really gets my goat that of the two games I mis-called I actually picked those two games! Out of all the other choices…. I mis-called the Kansas State and Missouri game, it was only over by 16 points, mainly due to the teams combining for 68 free throws. But hey, that’s the Big12 for some teams. Liverpool looked strong as well, Madrid appeared to have lost some of their recent form. A great away victory for Liverpool, look for them to advance into the quarterfinals. And so on to the picks.

1) Brian Gay vs. David Toms – Gay has a better first round score
2) Aston Villa @ CSKA Moscow – CSKA Moscow advances
3) Woods wins by hole 10-15 vs. Woods wins by 16+ or loses – Woods wins on 16+ or loses
4) Fiorentina @ Ajax Amsterdam – 3 goals or more
5) Florida Panthers @ New York Rangers – Florida Panthers
6) West Virginia @ Cincinnati – Cincinnati has more three pointers
7) Xavier @ St. Joseph’s – 133 points or more
8) Cleveland @ Houston – Cleveland
9) Miami (FL) @ Virginia – Virginia
10) Columbus Blue Jackets @ Edmonton Oilers – 6 goals or more
11) Purdue @ Michigan – Purdue
12) Memphis vs. Murray State – Murray State has a larger winning margin
13) James Harden vs. Justin Dentmon – Harden pts.

1) Brian Gay won this event at this course last year. It’s a shorter course which will negate some of Toms’ advantage in driving distance. Gay hits more greens in regulation and is slightly more accurate with his drives which is important on this course with tropical winds being a factor. That should be enough to overcome Toms’ fewer putts per hole. Finally, in the three past events these two have played together Gay has had the lower first round score all three times.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

2) Aston Villa is resting the majority of their starters for this match and CSKA already has an away goal. With all the reserves playing for Aston Villa CSKA Moscow should comfortably pull this out.
Confidence: W15 streak or less

3) Woods had a couple of eagles in the first round, which is great, but he also had a couple of bogeys. Jones couldn’t capitalize on that but Clark should be able to. Clark had zero bogeys in the first round, so he would win those holes against Woods. If Jones could go 16 holes against Woods, Clark should be able to as well.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

5) Florida has had a day to rest while New York is traveling from Toronto after losing to the Maple Leafs yesterday. Vokoun should be back in net for the Panthers, but even if he is not Anderson has had the Rangers’ number this season. New York’s coach has been quoted saying his team looks too tired at the end of games as well. Florida bounces back on the road here with a 2 – 1 or 3 – 1 win.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

6) Cincinnati shoots a higher percentage on threes and has 4 players averaging one made three pointer. West Virginia makes close to the same number of threes and Cincy but have only three players averaging one three or more per game. West Virginia has a good defense and typically disrupts three point shooting teams, but Cincinnati has shot well against other teams in their conference who defend the three well.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

8) Cleveland is on a level above Houston being contenders to reach the Finals while Houston will count itself fortunate to achieve a first round win. Delonte West will be returning for the Cavaliers and they have LeBron. Houston doesn’t have the advantage in many of the matchups, except perhaps with Scola versus Wallace.
Confidence: W9 streak or less

9) Virginia is pretty good at the turnover game, one of Miami’s weaknesses. They’re also at home. I like the upset here and don’t think McClinton can beat Virginia on his own.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

12) Memphis at UAB is a major rivalry game pitting the top two C-USA schools against one another. UAB lost this game by 1 point last year, and Memphis had Derrick Rose. Tyreke Evans is good, but is he that good? Murray State plays in a weaker conference where 20 point swings from home to away games are common. Morehead State is not very good on the road and Murray State is playing well right now. Murray State wins by 15, Memphis wins by 7.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

13) Harden scores 1.66 points per shot while Dentmon shoots a terrific 1.53 points per shot. 0.13 difference is still significant with this stat. Dentmon had his best game of the season at ASU earlier in the year. I think it’s more likely he just had a great game than that ASU can’t defend him. Harden is the ‘safer’ choice, but not by much.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

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