Odds On Most Any Matchup: 5dimesSkyBetBetFairBetUS

And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Wednesday, October 28, 2009

October 28th 2009 Picks

(skip to picks)Well, if you followed my picks at the start of October you noticed quite a few losers, and I started my campaign for the monthly on a bitter and sour note (something like 6W-18L-1P). The past couple of weeks have been a bit kinder and I made a brief run up the monthly leaderboard but the last two days have been killers. Japan let me down against Switzerland, giving up 4 unanswered goals after being up 2-0 and eventually falling 4-3. Then VfB Stuttgart continued their stunning run of futility with a 1-0 loss to SpVgg Greuther Fürth (a fucking 2.Bundesliga team). I was originally going to pick against Stuttgart because the DFB Pokal takes a back-seat to Bundesliga and Champions League matches. I then read an article on vfb.de where their coach stated a focus on winning the match today, not that it did them much good. Apparently they had plenty of shots on goal but could not finish on a single one. Later the Cavs disappointed, and from what I saw (the 2nd quarter) they just did not look good offensively, aside from LeBron. The day wrapped up with a win, 105 points or more. It only took a barrage of free throws and made baskets in the final minute of the half to do it. So, it's on to another day of picks, and a furious attempt to at least hit 70 wins for the month (10 to go). Good luck everybody!

1) Gambia vs. Netherlands - Netherlands win
2) Costa Rica vs. Turkey - Turkey win
3) Iran vs. Colombia - 0 or 1 goals scored in the 1st half
4) AC Milan @ Napoli - 2 goals or fewer
5) Liverpool @ Arsenal - Arsenal win
6) Buffalo Sabres @ New Jersey Devils - New Jersey
7) Ottawa Senators @ Florida Panthers - Florida
8) Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees - Philadelphia
9) Which Starting Pitcher Will Allow Fewer Hits: Cliff Lee or Tie vs. C.C. Sabathia - Lee or tie
10) David West vs. Richard Jefferson - West points
11) Detroit Pistons @ Memphis Grizzlies - Memphis
12) Carmelo Anthony's 1st Half Points: 14 Or Fewer vs. 15 Or More - 14 or fewer
13) L.A. Kings vs. San Jose Sharks - 2nd Period has more goals

Sunday, October 4, 2009

October 4th, 2009 Picks

(skip to picks)It was just another day where college football kicked my ass. Started out the day with Tottenham Hotspur only managing a draw against Bolton for the loss, but at least it was an entertaining match. Then picked up a win with the Chicago Blackhawks taking revenge on Florida, 4-0. My third pick was another loss with Vancouver failing to beat the Avalanche at home. Colorado is off to a good start this season with two home victories over playoff teams from last season. I finished the day with a win as the Tampa Bay Rays outlasted the Yankees 5-3. Plenty of NFL action today so good luck and on to the picks!

1) Liverpool @ Chelsea - Liverpool win or draw
2) Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots - New England
3) Chicago Bears (v. Lions) vs. Indianapolis Colts (v. Seahawks) - Indianapolis larger winning margin
4) Washington Redskins (v. Buccaneers) vs. Houston Texans (v. Raiders) - Washington larger winning margin
5) New York Giants Winning Margin vs. Kansas City Chiefs 2nd Half Points - Giants winning margin
6) Cincinnati Bengals Winning Margin vs. Cleveland Browns TDs and FGs - Cincinnati winning margin
7) Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars - Jacksonville
8) Scott Piercy or Matt Kuchar vs. Rest Of Field - Rest of field
9) New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays - Tampa Bay
10) Tony Stewart vs. Jeff Gordon - Stewart has a better final position
11) Phoenix Mercury @ Indiana Fever - Phoenix
12) Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins - Buffalo
13) New York Jets TDs and FGs vs. New Orleans Saints Winning Margin - Jets TDs and FGs
14) Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers - Los Angeles
15) Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos - Dallas
16) St. Louis Rams 2nd Half Points vs. San Francisco 49ers Winning Margin - Rams 2nd half points
17) San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers - San Diego

Saturday, October 3, 2009

October 3rd, 2009 Picks

(skip to picks)Yesterday was much better on the picks front. I started out with a win when Steve Flesch turned his game around and went -3 on the front nine. Picked up my lone loss of the day when Cristobal Huet gave up two goals on seven shots to the Panthers in the third period, including the tying goal with under three minutes left. Of course he was not up to the task in the shootout and Vokoun led Florida to victory. I then got lucky with St. Louis scoring three unanswered goals against Detroit to take the victory. Finished up the night with BYU doubling up Utah State plus one with the final score of 35-17. We've got a smorgasbord of picks on the menu today so good luck and on to the picks!

1) Tottenham Hotspru @ Bolton Wanderers - Tottenham Hotspur win
2) Wisconsin Badgers @ Minnesota Golden Gophers - Wisconsin
3) Chicago Blackhawks vs. Florida Panthers - Chicago
4) Michigan Wolverines @ Michigan State Spartans - Michigan State
5) Vancouver Canucks @ Colorado Avalanche - Vancouver
6) Kansas State Wildcats @ Iowa Sate Cyclones - Iowa State
7) Kyle Busch vs. Carl Edwards - Busch has a better final position
8) Air Force Falcons @ Navy Midshipmen - Air Force
9) North Carolina State Wolfpack @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons - Wake Forest
10) Florida State Seminoles @ Boston College Eagles - Florida State
11) Washington Huskies 2nd Half Points @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Winning Margin - Notre Dame Winning Margin
12) LSU Tigers @ Georgia Bulldogs - LSU
13) Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins - Kansas City
14) Philadelphia Flyers @ New Jersey Devils - New Jersey
15) Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers - Detroit
16) New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays - Tampa Bay
17) Texas A&M Aggies @ Arkansas Razorbacks - Texas A&M
18) Auburn Tigers @ Tennessee Volunteers - Auburn
19) USC Trojans @ California Golden Bears - USC
20) Oklahoma Sooners Winning Margin @ Miami(FL) Hurricanes TDs and FGs - Miami(FL) TDs and FGs
21) San Jose Sharks @ Anaheim Ducks - Anaheim
22) Colorado State Rams @ Idaho Vandals - Colorado State

Friday, October 2, 2009

October 2nd Picks, 2009

(skip to picks)Think of Oingo Boingo's "Just Another Day" but insert poor, atrocious, or shitty between 'Another' and 'Day'. That was how I picked yesterday. The worst of it came in the evening where I got the Flames and Habs NHL picks correct but blew it with the Bruins and Sharks. Of course I picked the Bruins and Sharks for my streak. So from here I feel I can only go up and so here we go and on to the picks!

1) Woody Austin vs. Steve Flesch - Flesch cards a lower or equal front 9 score
2) Florida Panthers vs. Chicago Blackhawks - Chicago
3) Bo Van Pelt vs. Rory Sabbatini - Van Pelt cards a lower or equal front 9 score
4) Sparta Rotterdam @ Vitesse Arnhem - Vitesse Arnhem win
5) Detroit Red Wings vs. St. Louis Blues - St. Louis
6) Philadelphia Flyers @ Carolina Hurricanes - Carolina
7) Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers - Chicago
8) New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays - New York
9) Pittsburgh Panthers Winnings Margin @ Louisville Cardinals TDs and FGs - Pittsburgh winning margin
10) Utah State Aggies points scored @ BYU Cougars winning margin - BYU winning margin
11) Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners - Seattle
12) Saskatchewan Roughriders @ BC Lions - BC

Thursday, October 1, 2009

October 1st Picks, 2009

(skip to picks)Again the soccer picks killed me. Took Australia to score first even though I knew Oceanic teams typically are weak, then hit the fail button again when I banked on Brazil's U-20 team to score early and often. They did not score at all. After that I took Manchester United at home, but they and Chelsea each won by one goal. Finally picked up a win when I switched my pick to Toronto with Boston resting nearly their entire starting lineup. Well, it's a new day of picks and a new chance to go for the monthly if that's how you want to swing it, so good luck and on to the picks!

1) Steve Elkington vs. Joe Durant - Elkington cards a lower or equal front 9 score
2) Aaron Baddeley vs. Dustin Johnson - Johnson cards a lower front 9 score
3) Spain vs. Venezuela - Venezuela wins, draws, or loses by 1 goal
4) Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers - Detroit
5) Egypt vs. Italy - 2 goals or fewer
6) Dan Haren vs. Tim Lincecum - Haren pitches more innings
7) Washington Capitals @ Boston Bruins - Boston
8) Montreal Canadiens @ Toronto Maple Leafs - Montreal
9) Colorado Buffaloes Total Points @ West Virginia Mountaineers Winning Margin - Colorado total points
10) Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs - Chicago
11) Southern Miss Golden Eagles @ UAB Blazers - 61 points or more
12) Indiana Fever @ Phoenix Mercury - Phoenix
13) Vancouver Canucks @ Calgary Flames - Calgary
14) San Jose Sharks @ Colorado Avalanche - San Jose
15) Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners - Seattle
16) Home Runs Hit In Innings 4 Through 6 (Athletics @ Mariners): Zero vs. 1 Or More - Zero

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

September 30th, 2009 Picks

(skip to picks)Wow, pretty awful day for my picks mostly thanks to the soccer matches. Liverpool got handled by Fiorentina and I lost my W6, then Verlander went 129 pitches strong. He had 8 strikeouts and 5 hits after 7 innings and 110 pitches but Tim Leyland determined he needed to go one more inning in which he gave up 3 hits and got zero strikeouts so I lost that pick. Then I picked up another win with Chad Billingsley one-hitting the woeful Padres through 5 innings. Well, hopefully soccer can put me out on a better foot today and so on to the picks!

1) Australia vs. Costa Rica - Australia scores first
2) Beşiktaş @ CSKA Moscow - 2 goals or fewer
3) Czech Republic vs. Brazil - Goal scored in the 29th minute or earlier
4) Manchester United (v. VfL Wolfsburg) vs. Chelsea (@ APOEL Nicosia) - Manchester United have a larger margin of victory
5) Honduras vs. United Arab Emirates - United Arab Emirates win or draw
6) Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers - Detroit
7) Will Joba Chamberlain Get The Win (Royals @ Yankees): Yes vs. No - Yes
8) Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox - Toronto
9) Hawaii Warriors @ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs - Louisiana Tech
10) Los Angeles Dodgers (@ Padres) vs. San Francisco Giants (@ Diamondbacks) - Dodgers have a larger margin of victory
11) Oakland @ Seattle vs. Texas @ Los Angeles - Texas @ Los Angeles have more runs scored in innings 4-6

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

September 29th, 2009 Picks

(skip to picks)Well damn, that Pirates/Dodgers game sure did not go as expected. I mean, it's tough to get four straight wins, but Kuroda never even had a chance. I'm just glad this once I didn't get screwed by the pitcher who's throwing batting practice. After that I ended up taking the Witten/Smith prop and was just happy to walk away with the push at the end. Even though Witten caught all 9 passes thrown to him you can't fault the Cowboys for targeting him just once in the second half. I mean, the offense they were running was definitely working. Still, just one more pass to the guy would ya? UEFA Champions League is back in action tomorrow and there are a couple of baseball props up on the board which are always fun. I took Billingsley because the Padres are batting .220 at home this season while the Athletics are hitting .268 on the road. And so on to the picks!

1) Germany vs. Korea - 2 goals or more scored in the 1st half
2) Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers - Detroit
3) Inter Milan @ FK Rubin Kazan - 2 goals or fewer
4) Cameroon vs. United States - Cameroon win
5) Liverpool @ Fiorentina - Liverpool win
6) Minnesota Twins Hits Off Verlander Or Tie vs. Justin Verlander Strikeouts - Verlander strikeouts
7) St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds - St. Louis
8) Indiana Fever @ Phoenix Mercury - Phoenix
9) Felix Hernandez (v. Oakland) vs. Chad Billingsley (@ San Diego) - Billingsley allows fewer hits after 5 innings
10) Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants - Arizona
11) Total Runs Scored In Innings 4 Through 6: 2 Runs Or Fewer vs. 3 Runs Or More - 3 or more

Monday, September 28, 2009

September 28th, 2009 Picks

(skip to picks)I had a helluva Saturday night up on the mountains, hence the lack of picks for Sunday. I figured picks are pretty useless after the fact so fugeddaboutit, yea? Picked up a win with Sunderland this morning and went on to win with Mark Sanchez and the Jets at home to bring my streak to 5. So far there are only six picks on the board for tomorrow but I figure they'll throw up a couple more props before the end of the day. Probably. So on to the picks!

1) Will Hiroki Kuroda Get The Win (Dodgers @ Pirates): Yes vs. No - No
2) IF Elfsborg @ Halmstads BK - Halmstads BK win or draw
3) West Ham United @ Manchester City - Manchester City win by 2 or more goals
4) União Leiria @ Vitória Guimarães - Vitória Guimarães win
5) Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers - Detroit
6) Carolina Panthers 2nd Half Points vs. Dallas Cowboys Winning Margin - Panthers 2nd half points
7) DeAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart vs. Felix Jones and Tashard Choice - Jones/Choice score a TD first
8) Steve Smith vs. Jason Witten - Witten records more 2nd half receptions
9) Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels - Los Angeles

Saturday, September 26, 2009

September 26th, 2009 Picks

(skip to picks)2-1-0 as Paraguay's teens (under-20's) held Italy to a scoreless draw in Egypt at the U-20 World Cup. I picked up my win two with the over under prop featuring Spain playing Tahiti. Oceania is traditionally the weakest soccer zone and Tahiti was no exception. Spain opened up the scoring with a goal in the 11th minute and was up 4-0 before the first half was over. By the end Spain had three players with a brace and two others on the score sheet to win 8-0. Of course I got greedy, but not greedy enough as I let the Yankees and Rangers slide past me to settle on the Phoenix Mercury. Call me paranoid, but I just know Phoenix were paid off to throw that game, I just know it! Plenty of college football to keep you happy until the pros start up tomorrow so enjoy and on with the picks!

1) Bolton Wanderers @ Birmingham - Bolton Wanderers win or draw
2) #22 North Carolina Tar Heels @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets - North Carolina
3) Michigan State Spartans @ Wisconsin Badgers - Wisconsin
4) #9 Miami(FL) Hurricanes @ #11 Virginia Tech Hokies - Miami(FL)
5) #6 California Golden Bears @ Oregon Ducks - California
6) #14 TCU Horned Frogs @ Clemson Tigers - Clemson
7) Pittsburgh Panthers @ North Carolina State Wolfpack - Pittsburgh
8) Carl Edwards vs. Denny Hamlin - Edwards has a better final position
9) Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants - San Francisco
10) Troy Trojans @ Arkansas State Red Wolves - Arkansas State
11) Detroit Shock @ Indiana Fever - Detroit
12) Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox - Chicago
13) Notre Dame (@ Purdue) vs. Penn State (v. Iowa) - Notre Dame has a larger winning margin
14) Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers - Texas
15) #24 Washington Huskies @ Stanford Cardinal - Stanford
16) Texas Tech Red Raiders @ #17 Houston Cougars - Houston

Friday, September 25, 2009

September 25th, 2009 Picks

(skip to picks)2-4-0 yesterday, started the day with a Mike Weir loss followed by Egypt and Trini scoring in the 30th minute. What gets me is they scored 3 times in the next 27 minute period. I got off the losing way with Genoa getting the draw against Juventus then Tiger carding par on the 18th. After that I made a stupid mistake in going with Verlander's hits though it turned out to be a decent selection. Toronto was just swinging and missing all night, a team in the top 5 in strikeouts delivered Hernandez his season high in the stat. Then I fell asleep to van Damme in "Double Impact" while Brian Wilson blew a save to give me another loss. Really glad I wasn't watching that game. According to the recap the Giants are now 73-2 when leading after 8 innings *scoff*. Well, I feel a return to over .500 coming so on to the picks.

1) Italy U20 vs. Paraguay U20 - Paraguay win or draw
2) Heath Slocum vs. Phil Mickelson - Slocum cards a lower or equal front 9 score
3) Sporting Braga vs. Olhanense - Olhanense win or draw
4) Spain vs. Tahiti - 4 goals or more
5) Tiger Woods' Back 9 Score: 33 Or Lower vs. 34 Or Higher - 34 or higher
6) Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees - New York
7) Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers - Texas
8) Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals - Kansas City
9) Missouri Tiger's Winning Margin vs. Nevada Wolfpack's TDs and FGs - Missouri winning margin
10) Blaine Gabbert's Passing Yards: 265 Or Fewer vs. 266 Or More - 265 or fewer
11) BC Lions @ Calgary Stampeders - 55 points or more
12) Los Angeles Sparks @ Phoenix Mercury - Phoenix
13) Will Tim Lincecum Be The Winning Pitcher (Cubs @ Giants): Yes vs. No - Yes

Thursday, September 24, 2009

September 24th, 2009 Picks

(skip to picks)Well, I bust out the previews and end up with my worst day in two weeks. Fortunately the Detroit Shock kept my streak alive after the Angels extended the losing to two games thanks to some lousing hitting with RISP. Golden Arrows did nothing to change it. I'll probably preview a few today including the Verlander prop but mostly they'll just be quickies. So on to the picks!

1) Luke Donald vs. Mike Weir - Weir cards a lower front 9 score
2) Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh
3) First Goal Scored (Trinidad & Tobago @ Egypt): 27th Minute Or Earlier vs. 28th Minute Or Later - 27th or earlier
4) Tiger Woods' Front 9 score: 33 Or Lower vs. 34 Or Higher - 33 or lower
5) Juventus @ Genoa - Genoa win or draw
6) Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics - Oakland
7) Tiger Woods' Par-3 18th Score: Par (3) vs. Any Other Score - Par (3)
8) Felix Hernandez Strikeouts (@Blue Jays) vs. Justin Verlander Hits Allowed (@Indians) - Verlander hits allowed
9) #4 Mississippi Rebels @ South Carolina Gamecocks - Mississippi
10) Will J.A. Happ Be The Winning Pitcher (Phillies @ Brewers): Yes vs. No - Yes
11) Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants - San Francisco
12) How Many Runs Scored In Innings 5 Through 9 (Cubs @ Giants): 3 Or Fewer vs. 4 Or More - 3 or fewer

Dempster has a 3.12 ERA in the 5th and 6th innings while Penny's is 3.16 there.
12) I'll try and post some numbers on Ryan Dempster's and Brad Penny's ERA in innings 5 and 6 this season and some bullpen numbers, for now I just don't trust the bullpens to keep this low.

Well, Dempster has a 3.12 ERA in innings 5 and 6 and has pitched them as shutout innings in 17 of 25 starts this season. The Cubs bullpen has a 4.14 ERA which comes out to about 1.4 runs allowed in innings 7 through 9. Brad Penny has an ERA of 3.16 in innings 5 and 6 and pitched them as shutout innings in 13 of 24 starts. The Giants bullpen has a stellar 3.51 ERA so overall 2 or 3 runs scored would be most likely, statistically (yeah, I hate that disclaimer too).

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

September 23rd, 2009 Picks

(skip to picks)1-1-0 on the day, picked up a win with Joe Blanton going 2 full innings further than Josh Johnson. After that got screwed by the Phillies who managed a full two hits against Anibal Sanchez as they wasted a quality start by Jamie Moyer and fell 3-0 to the Marlins. Of course the Phillies are going to put forth their worst effort on the season when they're up on SFTC with 92% of the people picking them, right? So another day and another round of picks!

1) Santos @ Golden Arrows - Golden Arrows
2) Napoli @ Inter Milan - Napoli win, draw, or lose by 1 goal
3) AC Milan @ Udinese - Udinese win or draw
4) New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels - Los Angeles
5) Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays - Rays lead after 41/2 innings
6) Cole Hamels Strikeouts Or Tie vs. Florida Marlins Hits Off Hamels - Hamels strikeouts or tie
7) Indiana Fever @ Detroit Shock - Detroit
8) Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox - Chicago
9) Phoenix Mercury @ Los Angeles Sparks - Los Angeles
10) Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics - Oakland
11) San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks - San Francisco

Inter Milan suit up their third game this week. Can they beat the fatigue and Napoli?
2) Inter Milan is a good favorite to win this match at 2/5 (-250) compared to 11/4 (+275) for a draw and 15/2 (+750) for Napoli to win. Take a look at the handicap betting a few lines down, however, and one can see Inter Milan are only 6/5 (+120) when Napoli is spotted a goal. Combining the handicap tie for Napoli and accounting for the sportsbooks profits Milan are +145 to win by 2 goals or more. Inter Milan will be missing Thiago Motta at midfield and will be playing their third game this week. I think this will be a difficult game for Inter Milan much like the match against A.S. Bari earlier this season. It will come down to whether their strikers are able to pin-point difficult shots. If they can, don't be surprised by a 4-1 scoreline in favor of Inter.

Udinese will have home field advantage as they seek to regain a place in Europe in 2010.
3) This match features two teams who are underachieving thus far this season. Udinese sits in 12th place with a 1-2-1 (W-D-L) record and with an even goal differential while AC Milan are currently 8th with a 2-1-1 record and -2 differential. Udinese will seek a place in Europe this year after last seasons quarterfinal run in the UEFA Cup. AC Milan are trying to seek another Champions League place where they are currently competing in the group stage. Both teams are dealing with a slew of injuries: Udinese are missing Kwadwo Asamoah (M), Christian Obodo (M), Damiano Ferronetti (D), Christian Zapata (D) and AC Milan are missing Daniele Bonera (D), Davide Di Gennaro (M), and Marco Borriello (F). Considering these injuries SkyBet have AC Milan at 5/4 (+125) and combining the win and draw odds and accounting for the sportsbooks profit we get Udinese to win or draw at -145.

(top) Teams' strikeout rate vs. Hamels, with 100% being average.
Click image for larger view.
6) Hamels has faced the Marlins twice this season and has managed to go 1-1 in terms of this prop. In the first game he struck out 5 and gave up 4 hits facing 20 batters and in the second game he struck out 4 and gave up 5 hits facing 25 batters. The difference was mainly in how often the Marlins struck out. To date this season the Marlins are average 5.11 plate appearances per strikeout good for 25th in the Majors. Looking at the graph on the right one can see the rate at which opponents strike out against Hamels compared to their average. One can see Hamels generally strikes out teams at or above their average, sometimes at more than twice their rate. He has struck out teams above their average rate for six straight starts nd I think if he can do that in this game he will win this prop. Hamels has had more strikeouts than hits in only 13 of 29 starts this season so it's by no means a sure bet, but I think Florida is one team he can do it against.

10) This one looks like a can't-miss for Texas. They're regarded as the better team offensively and the pitching matchup undeniably favors Texas. Tommy Hunter may not strikeout a lot of batters and he does not force too many groundouts but players have a tough time hitting off of him, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .259, which could be considered a sign of luck. He has a WHIP of 1.18 and his ERA is 3.25 which are near All-Star level. He also has a win at Oakland already this season, pitching 7 innings and allowing only 3 runs off of three hits and 2 walks.
Can the A's bats provide Mortensen with enough support against Tommy Hunter?

Oakland will counter with young Clayton Mortensen who was brought up from AAA earlier this season for the first time in his career. His numbers look pretty abysmal with a 1.60 WHIP and 6.12 ERA in 25 innings of work but those numbers are bloated from a poor pair of initial starts. In his third start of the season he pitched 6 quality innings at Minnesota and the A's won 12-5. Mortensen put up mediocre numbers in AAA with a 4.39 ERA and 1.39 WHIP but his ground-ball to fly-ball ratio has been outstanding in the Majors which is important since his home run-to-fly ball ratio is more than double that of Hunter's and the Rangers are a slugging team (3rd in MLB).

I think this conception of the Rangers as a power offense is where people are a bit off. Batting average wise the Athletics and Rangers are identical and the Rangers are far worse than Oakland in terms of plate appearances per strikeout (PASO) - Texas ranks 30th in PASO. Oakland may not have the slugging of Texas but at Oakland-Alameda County Stadium Oakland are typically the better offense. They've outscored their opponents by 53 runs in 76 games and have actually hit 3 more home runs than the opposition. Overall I think Oakland can hang with Texas offensively in Oakland and it will just be a matter of Mortensen getting a quality start. Look for Hunter to have a poor game because it happens to even the best of them.

Comparative Pitching Statistics
T. Hunter11.7%37.3%7.3%84.1%67.7%
C. Mortensen4.2%54%16.7%78.5%42.9%

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

September 22nd, 2009 Picks

(skip to picks)Another day, another losing pick in the evening. I started out with a win going for FC Midtylland in Danish soccer then picked up a second win when Dallas Clark went for 80 yards and tied the Monday Night Football record for quickest touchdown (12 seconds). Instead of being satisfied with two wins I went for another and lost as Joe Saunders showed the Yankees why they won't make it to the World Series this year. So on to a new day of picks then, yeah?

1) Liverpool @ Leeds United - Leeds United win, draw, or lose by 1 goal
2) Blackburn Rovers @ Nottingham Forest - Blackburn Rovers
3) Joe Blanton vs. Josh Johnson - Blanton pitches more or equal innings
4) Durham Bulls vs. Memphis Redbirds - Durham
5) How Many Runs Will Be Scored Before The 5th Inning (Cubs @ Brewers): 4 Or Fewer vs. 5 Or More - 4 runs or fewer
6) Philadelphia Phillies @ Florida Marlins - Philadelphia
7) Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals - Kansas City
8) New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels - Los Angeles

Leeds United will face off against a shadow squad from Liverpool.
1) Liverpool should easily defeat Leeds United and by more than two goals if they were to play Leeds like they would a team from the Premiership. Liverpool will be more focused on Champions League matches and winning the Premier League than they are on the Carling Cup, however. The preview on ESPN's site can be found here and suggests Liverpool will likely be playing a squad of reserves with their key players such as Torres and Gerrard on the bench to come in only if Liverpool finds themselves losing or tied. SkySports report the same here. They also report Leeds will also have their minds on a match against MK Dons as they attempt to promote themselves to the Championship from League One (3rd tier). With both sides focused more on their league matches than this Cup match I think we might see some dreary play with a 2-1 scoreline in favor of Liverpool - Beckford likely scores for Leeds. Click here for a bevy of news articles regarding this match.

2) Another match between a top-flight side, Blackburn Rovers, at a lower division side, Nottingham Forest of the 2nd tier Championship. Blackburn will be playing quite a few second teamers hoping for a spot against Wigan Athletic this weekend so it won't be a massacre here. SkyBet has odds for this match with Nottingham Forest at 2/1 (+200) and Blackburn Rovers at 11/8 (+135) and a draw (after 90 minutes) at +225 so we could very well see this match go into extra time and possibly penalties. I would take Blackburn in those situations as they are a bigger club with more depth.

Monday, September 21, 2009

September 21st, 2009 Picks

(skip to picks)Well, the NFL was definitely not as kind as college football was. I went 1-1-0 on my picks today winning with Everton and losing with the St. Louis Cardinals. Cardinals had a chance to walk off with the bases loaded and one out but some poor hitting and worse base running ended my streak. The less said the better and so on to the picks.

1) FC Midtylland @ AGF Aarhug - FC Midtylland win or draw
2) Olhanense @ Sporting Lisbon - 2 goals or fewer
3) Will Derek Lowe Be The Winning Pitcher (Braves @ Mets): Yes vs. No - Yes
4) St. Louis Cardinals @ Houston Astros - Houston
5) Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins - Indianapolis
6) Who Will Score First: Indianapolis vs. Miami - Indianapolis
7) How Many Receptions Will Reggie Wayne Record - 6 Or Fewer vs. 7 Or More - 7 or more
8) San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Arizona
9) New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels - New York
10) How Many Points Will Be Scored In The 2nd Half (Colts @ Dolphins): 19 Or Fewer vs. 20 Or More - 19 or fewer

Sunday, September 20, 2009

September 20th, 2009 Picks

(skip to picks)2-0-0 for my own picks today as I went for an eighth day in a row without falling below the .500-mark. Some of you may have noticed I lost out on all the 2nd half point props in college football, so maybe it's best to calculate the final score with over/unders and lines and go the opposite of that then. I picked up one win yesterday with Jahvid Best rushing for 5 touchdowns while Minnesota got 3 touchdowns total and picked up my other win with the Dodgers wailing on Brad Penny and the Giants' 'pen for 12 runs. Hopefully the NFL will be as kind and so on to the picks.

1) Blackburn Rovers @ Everton - Everton win
2) New England Patriots @ New York Jets - New England
3) New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles - Philadelphia
4) Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars - Jacksonville
5) Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs - Oakland
6) Houston Texans vs. Chris Johnson - Texans gain more rushing yards
7) Cincinnati Bengals 2nd Half Points @ Green Bay Packers Winning Margin - Bengals 2nd half points
8) Brett Favre vs. Matthew Stafford - Stafford passing yards
9) St. Louis Rams Points Scored @ Washington Redskins Winning Margin - Rams points scored
10) Jake Delhomme vs. Matt Ryan - Ryan passing yards
11) Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves - Atlanta
12) Kurt Busch vs. Mark Martin - Martin has a better final position
13) Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers - Seattle
14) Tampa Bay Buccaneers TDs Scored @ Buffalo Bills Winning Margin - Buccaneers TDs scored
15) San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers - Los Angeles
16) Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers - Baltimore
17) Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos - Cleveland
18) Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears - Pittsburgh
19) Los Angeles Sparks @ Seattle Storm - Seattle
20) Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis
21) New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys - New York