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And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Tuesday, February 24, 2009

February 24th, 2009 Picks

Well, went 6-4-0 yesterday, and I could just punch myself for passing up the chance to pick Boston and going with Golden State instead. Especially since I had more confidence in Boston (W7 vs. W3). On to the next streak and on to the picks.

1) AS Roma @ Arsenal – AS Roma win or draw
2) Manchester United @ Inter Milan – 2 goals or fewer
3) O.J. Mayo + Rudy Gay pts. vs. LeBron James pts. – Mayo and Gay
4) Colorado Avalanche @ Atlanta Thrashers – Colorado
5) Penn State @ Ohio State – 127 or over
6) Vancouver Canucks @ Montreal Canadiens – Vancouver
7) Portland @ Houston – Portland
8) Florida @ LSU – LSU
9) Florida State @ Boston College – Florida State
10) Texas A&M @ Nebraska – Nebraska
11) Brigham Young @ San Diego State – Brigham Young

1) Arsenal is missing strikers Adebayor and Walcott, midfielder Fabregas, and defender Silvestre while AS Roma is essentially at full strength. Roma has not won in England recently, but today is a day they should not lose.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

2) Internazionale (Inter Milan) has averaged a total score of 1.3 in their home matches in the Champions League; Manchester United has averaged a total score of 1.7 in their away matches. 0 of 3 home matches have gone 3 goals or over for Internazionale and 1 of 3 of Manchester United’s away matches have gone over. Even in their home leagues Inter averages a total score of 2.2 and Manchester United averages a total score of 1.7. Manchester United is missing a number of key defenders, notably Nemanja Vidic, Jonathan Evans, and Gary Neville, but they will have a strong defense on the field with or without O’Shea since they can play midfielders as defenders. Additionally, the only goals the Red Devils have conceded in Champions League play have been when Vidic, Rafael, or Neville have been on the field. Inter Milan is missing Mazzerati on defense, but more than make up for that with the addition of Chivu.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

5) It’s not that Penn State and Ohio State like to eke out victorys with monumental defensive efforts, but they can play that game if forced to (see: Penn St. 38-33 Illinois the other day). These teams know how to put up points and it seems unlikely PSU will shoot as poorly as they did against Illinois. Plus, you’d think OSU could get at least a few free throws, unlike Illinois. And I have a system for these.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

8) I’ll have to do more research but I don’t really see a reason to expect Florida will have a chance in this one on the road. LSU has been playing well lately and one shouldn’t expect Florida to defeat LSU at home when they’ve already lost to Tennessee and Georgia. Again, it seems unlikely they’ll have another 50+% game from beyond the arc when they’re only 37.3% from three on the season.
Confidence: W13 streak or less

10) Nebraska has a great defense, especially at home. They consistently force more turnovers than they give up. They also keep offenses from flowing, as evidenced by only one conference opponent getting 10 assists against them (all the rest had fewer than 10). They will probably be outrebounded by Texas A&M but the Aggies will need another 29 free throw edge to beat the Cornhuskers here.
Confidence: W20 streak or less

Good luck y’all!

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