Odds On Most Any Matchup: 5dimesSkyBetBetFairBetUS

And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Sunday, July 12, 2009

July 12th, 2009 Picks

(skip to picks)Aw hell, terrible day at 1-3-0 which might help explain why it seemed like all of my picks were losing even though they ended up at 8-8-0. Started out with Woody Austin who played a decent front 9 at 1-under but it wasn't near enough against a solid Mark Calcavecchia. Then I picked Grasshoppers knowing that FC Aarau was the better pick. Looking at the highlights Grasshoppers had some great chances but just couldn't capitalize. I got my lone win of the day with the Angels. 14 runs, a couple homers, a few doubles, a triple, and I guess that qualifies as 'pesky' according to the douchebags at ESPN. Then it was back to a loss as Millwood was left in one inning too many. He gave up a single, a home run, and a double that was scored later in the inning before he was relieved without getting a single out. And so on to the picks.

Darron Stiles Takes Three Stroke Lead Into Final Day Despite Stricker's Course Record 61

Front 9 Scores: Mark Calcavecchia 31, Woody Austin 34 (misses cut)
It all started in the first round when Mark Calcavecchia and Michael Bradley made a pair of birdie putts from just under nine feet out. Woody Austin had an eight footer of his own for birdie but failed to make it and thus began a run of nine holes where Calcavecchia was just a bit better. There was one bogey on the front 9 between the members of the threesome, by Michael Bradley on the 8th hole, but otherwise it was all birdies and pars. Calcavecchia sank a sweet 14' 6" putt on the par-3 seventh and an even sweeter 32 foot putt on the ninth hole to end the front 9 three strokes in front of Austin. Both Calcavecchia and Austin went on to bogey a couple of holes on the back 9 but only Calcavecchia had the wiggle room to avoid missing the cut.
Wrap UpLeaderboardStroke-By-StrokePhotosHighlights

Grasshoppers Miss Out On Chances As New Aarau Captain Sandro Burki Makes His Mark
FC Aarau 1 - 0 Grasshoppers Club
F.C. Aarau had a corner kick in the first half. They got off a headed shot that was saved, cleared out poorly, then shot back towards goal again, bounced off the cross bar and then finally Burki caught the rebound and booted it in from up close.
``Aarau hatte allerdings auch das Glück, dass bereits die erste Torchance verwertete werden konnte. Nach einem Eckball und einem misslungenen Befreiungsschlag von Paulo Menezes, der auf diese Saison hin von Aarau zu GC gewechselt hat, traf Aaraus neuer Captain Sandro Burki zum 1:0 (22.). Danach konnte der FCA ganz seinen kämpferischen Tugenden und seiner Kontertaktik vertrauen."
Read more....Box ScorePhotosHighlights

Yankees' Five Home Runs Falls Six Runs Short Of Angels
Los Angeles Angels 14 - 8 New York Yankees
Los Angeles was just too much offensively for the Yankees to handle for the second day in a row.
``For the seventh time in the Angels' last eight games, they fell behind by at least four runs. And for the fourth time, they won -- including Friday night's 10-6 victory, when they overcame a 5-1 deficit against Joba Chamberlain. It's the first time they have won four games in this fashion on one homestand in the franchise's 49-year history. The Angels lead the majors with 26 comeback wins, one more than the Yankees. Mike Napoli hit a go-ahead two-run double off reliever David Robinson during a seven-run fifth inning and added a solo homer in the seventh, leading the Angels to a 14-8 victory on Saturday after the Yankees tied a season high with five home runs, including two from Alex Rodriguez. Brandon Wood, a perennial prospect recalled from Triple-A Salt Lake on Friday, hit a two-run homer during the fifth-inning rally and Howie Kendrick capped it with a two-run single. Former Yankees outfielder Bobby Abreu had three RBIs."
Read more....Box ScorePhotos

Mariners Pitchers Maul Rangers Bats
Seattle Mariners 4 - 1 Texas Rangers
Millwood was at 100 pitches but I guess Texas wanted one more inning from him. Rob Johnson took advantage to get his first home run of the season.
``Ichiro Suzuki added an RBI single later in the inning and Russell Branyan hit his 22nd home run in the third. Jarrod Washburn (6-6) gave up a run on Ian Kinsler's double in the third, and allowed only four hits in seven innings."
Read more....Box ScorePhotos

1) Steve Stricker vs. Darron Stiles - Stiles cards a lower or equal front 9 score
2) James Blake vs. Marin Cilic - Blake
3) Danica Patrick vs. James Wheldon - Patrick has a better finishing position
4) St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs - Chicago
5) Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets - Cincinnati
6) Who Will Win The Women's U.S. Open: Cristie Kerr vs. Rest Of Field - Kerr
7) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers - Milwaukee
8) Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins - Chicago
9) Cork City @ Sligo Rovers - Sligo Rovers win or draw
10) Atlético MG @ Cruzeiro - Atlético MG
11) Minnesota Lynx @ San Antonio Silver Stars - Minnesota
12) St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs - St. Louis


Will the Cubs' bats show up against Kyle Lohse? They do have a BAA of .381 life-time against him.
4) The St. Louis Cardinals wrap up the first half of the season with a doubleheader at Wrigley Field today. They've given the start in the day game to last season's superstar Kyle Lohse. Lohse has posted some terrific numbers this season, a 3.99 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 10 starts, but has had to deal with an unprecedented amount of adversity. He's been hit by pitches three times while trying to bunt, once during his most recent minor league rehab stint, he's injured his knee twice while fielding the ball, he's had a start shortened to two innings by rain, and he's had to pitch with the flu. Today will be his first major league start in over a month and comes off of two rehab starts over the past couple of weeks. His most recent start was with the AAA Memphis Redbirds and he turned in a fairly commanding performance, pitching for 6 innings and allowing only 2 hits while striking out 6 and walking 2.

Facing off against Lohse will be the Chicago Cubs' mercurial Carlos Zambrano. Zambrano has been a solid starter for the Cubs, racking up a 3.47 ERA and 1.31 WHIP through 15 starts. He's typically good to limit a team for under three earned runs in 6 or more innings as well. The one major blip on that record came against, you guessed it, the St. Louis Cardinals. On that day in April Zambrano pitched for 7 innings against the Cards, gaving up 7 earned runs from 9 hits, including three homers! The Cubs still won the game 8-7 and the Cardinals' lineup is only batting .252 with a .472 slugging average against him so I doubt the damage will be as bad this time around. One concern, however, is Zambrano's fastball which has lost some velocity in a big way recently. In his last two start's Big Z's fastball has averaged at or below 90mph.

Both teams are batting around their season average recently with a bit of a reduction in power so I would not be surprised to see two or three home runs in this game. I think Lohse, coming back from injury, will still be a little rusty and I think he'll continue to struggle against a team that has had his number in the past. Zambrano's worst game of the season so far was against St. Louis and I expect he'll also be touched up some in this game, especially if he continues to deliver 85mph fast balls. Alfonso Soriano needs to wake up for a big game to give the Cubs a good chance of winning this one and Chicago will probably need to take a lead of two or three runs at least into the latter innings. If they're behind I would certainly favor the Cardinals' bullpen to hold on to that lead. It won't be an easy one for the Cubs but I think they'll have enough offensive firepower to win a close one.

Sligo Rovers are 0-1-1 (W-D-L) against Cork City in league play and recently knocked them out of the FAI Cup with a 2-1 replay victory at The Showgrounds.
9) Cork City F.C. will visit The Showgrounds today to play Sligo Rovers for the third time in just over a month. They were knocked out of the FAI Cup by Sligo Rovers after a 2-2 draw at home followed by a 2-1 loss at The Showgrounds a week later. That brings Cork City's overall record against Sligo Rovers to 1-2-1 during this campaign and 1-1-0 (W-D-L) in league play. Each team has scored 5 goals in those four matches.
Sligo are a good squad and I don’t think people always remember that. They have some very good players and they are now an established Premier Division side, and will cause problems for any team.
---Cork City coach Paul Doolin

Cork City F.C. are trying to fight through a period of inconsistency as they have struggled to avoid losses lately which tend to nullify their wins. They still have a chance to leapfrog Derry City for third place in the tables if they win today, however. In terms of home and away records Cork City are the 4th best team in the league with a 5-2-2 record away from home and 14 goals scored to 7 conceded. Sligo Rovers, on the other hand, are the worst team in the tables when it comes to home record with a 2-3-4 record there and 8 goals scored to 12 conceded. If it weren't for Sligo Rovers success against Cork City this season along with their strong showing last season (they finished in 4th, two points ahead of Cork City) this would be a lopsided matchup.

Home/Away Results For Sligo/Cork
Sligo RoversCork City F.C.
Drogheda United (2:2)Galway United (2:0)
Derry City (0:1)Drogheda United (1:2)
Galway United (2:0)Bray Wanderers (2:0)

Both sides are relatively free of injury concerns for this match. Sligo Rovers will be missing Stephen Parkhouse(F, knee) and Owen Morrison(F) and Gavin Peers(D) will face late fitness tests. For Cork City Robert Mezeckis(D, Achilles) and Billy Dennehy(M, hamstring) are both still sidelined while Joe Gamble(M) is a doubt. If Morrison misses the match for Sligo it will blunt their attacking prowess though they will still have plenty of options. If Gamble remains out along with Mezeckis, along with Mezeckis it will hurt Cork City's attack more. Both of these sides play tough defense with Sligo Rovers allowing 1.3 goals per home match and Cork City allowing 0.8 goals per away match so I expect this to be a low scoring affair. Odds on the match have Cork City at evens, Sligo Rovers at + 240, and the draw at +225 which comes out to the win or draw being given a 54.6% chance. I think Cork City's best chance for a win is a clean sheet and they can do it, but I don't think they will here.