Odds On Most Any Matchup: 5dimesSkyBetBetFairBetUS

And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Saturday, February 21, 2009

February 21st, 2009 Picks

Another poor day for me today. I picked against myself on Borussia Dortmund and ended up with another loss due to goals scored after the 80th minute. SC Freiburg was unable to muster more than one goal, while FC Augsburg could not put in even one. Many shots off target in that match. Ogilvie birdied the final hole to tie Ernie Els in a close push. Niagara demolished Illinois State, and in retrospect I should have seen it coming. The numbers and home court supported Niagara. Nevada pulled out a close one against VCU, wish I’d picked that one. Orlando played a nice game, leading Charlotte by 13 or 15 for most of the game. Houston came back in the second half against Dallas and repulsed their runs in the fourth to take a victory at home. And in the final game of the night David West turned in a lazy performance, while Pau was Pau. West turned the ball over multiple times while driving to the basket and walked up the court on offense until overtime. New Orleans tried to bump and push Gasol to tire him out, but he played well, scoring on dunks when the defense lost him. Gasol 20, West 16. And now, the picks!

1) Chelsea @ Aston Villa – Aston Villa win or draw
2) Inter Milan @ Bologna FC – Inter Milan win
3) Notre Dame @ Providence – Providence
4) Geoff Ogilvie vs. Phil Mickelson – Ogilvie has a lower 3rd round score
5) Chicago Blackhaws @ Dallas Stars – Chicago
6) Marquette @ Georgetown – Georgetown
7) Ontario vs. Newfoundland/Labradour – Ontario
8) Kyle Busch vs. Ron Hornaday Jr. – Busch
9) North Carolina winning margin vs. Landon Milbourne points – UNC margin
10) Miami (OH) @ Evansville – Miami (OH)
11) Utah State @ St. Mary’s – St. Mary’s
12) Texas A&M @ Texas Tech – Texas A&M
13) Boston Bruins @ Florida Panthers – Boston
14) Greg Biffle vs. Carl Edwards – Edwards has a better final position
15) Oklahoma @ Texas – Oklahoma
16) Calgary Flames @ Edmonton Oilers – Calgary
17) New Brunswick vs. Prince Edward Island – Prince Edward Island
18) Brigham Young @ UNLV – Brigham Young

1) Chelsea is missing Ashley Cole, while Aston Villa is missing Martin Laursen, advantage even. Chelsea are also missing Essien who started in their most impressive road victory, against Wigan Athletic. The other injuries should not have a large effect, though Carvalho returning could give Chelsea a boost, as could Emile Heskey returning for Aston Villa. In the end, Chelsea has not shown they can defeat anybody in the promotion ranks away at their pitch.
2) Inter Milan should dominate this game. Burdisso and Chivu being out is not important, though if Stankovic sits to rest for Manchester United it would hurt Inter. Volpi being out for Bologna is not good, but not bad, they are really just hoping for Mundingayi to return. Bologna is just not a good home team, with the fewest number of wins and draws of any opponent Inter has faced, including relegation squads. It would be a major victory for Bologna to pull even a draw.
3) For college matchups some friends of mine have devised a simple formula, it’s been working so far for straight up matchups, and total points over/unders. It predicted Niagara yesterday, but I didn’t listen. Providence is at home, and should win by 10 or more.
4) Ogilvie drives about as far as Mickelson, averages more birdies per round, hits more greens in regulation, drives more accurately, and has fewer putts per hole.
5) Chicago is missing their main goalie Khabibulin, and their top goal scorer Patrick Sharp. Huet is the backup goalie and is 3-1 in his last four starts. Dallas is missing some big point men as well in Zubov, Richards, and Morrow. Both teams are hot right now, but Chicago should get more shots on goal and eventually prevail.
6) Marquette is a very slight favorite according to the formula, but Georgetown is at home and experience has shown that the home court advantage is enough to offset being a slight underdog. Georgetown by 3 in overtime.
7) Ontarios curling team is uglier than Newfoundland/Labroudor, plus they have some old women who must be really good at curling, otherwise why wouldn’t some younger, prettier lady be on the team?
8) Busch won the last truck race, he has a shot to win this one as well.
9) UNC is a 12 point favorite or so, Milbourne averages 13 points per game. The Tarheels defense will keep him quiet, however. He has had too many games with under 10 points and UNC should win by 10, 15, or even 20+.
10) Miami (OH) is the underdog but I think they’ll win by 6 or 7 and have a big lead at some point in the game.
11) St. Mary’s College looked pretty damn good against Gonzaga, and they’re at home. USU has a real shot to win this, but SMC should run away in the end.
12) Texas A&M is a 2 point favorite, and I agree.
13) Boston is the favorite, though the two teams are evenly matched in terms of GAA for the goalies, save%, and average shots on goal. Florida has been better in the past 10 games, but Chicago’s defeat of them Wednesday is the first taste of things to come.
14) Carl Edwards finished last years circuit hot and is continuing into this year.
15) Oklahoma may be on the road, but they have something to prove. I see them as big favorites and will hopefully finish the game strong, instead of starting strong and letting Texas back into it.
16) Calgary just lost their second leading scorer to injury, but Edmonton has lost two of their top defensemen. Without their help Calgary can look forward to another 6 to 4 type of win.
17) Prince Edward Island. Seriously, check out their team photo. See those two on the right? They’re the ones to watch out for.
18) Brigham Young and UNLV are pretty good shooting teams and will make you pay for leaving them open. BYU a little moreso than UNLV. Advantage, BYU, and a handy 7 point win.

18 games is quite a bit, here’s hoping you can find two or six in there to turn to your advantage. Good luck ever’buddy.

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