March 30th, 2009 Picks

Ouch, my first winless day of the month as I went 0-3-0. I need to pick it up to finish over .500 on 600+ picks this round. My first pick was the over on Louisville versus Michigan State. Things started off slow immediately as the two teams combined to score 10 points in the first five minutes of the game. Michigan State played great defense and Terrence Williams disappeared from the game as he went 1 for 7 from the field. Altogether the two teams combined for 99 shots, whereas on the season they averaged 115 shots per game. Michigan State pulled away in the middle of the second half and downed the Cardinals 64-52 to make it to the Final Four in Detroit!

My second pick was the over on the North Carolina versus Oklahoma game. The teams started out flat again scoring 10 points in the first five minutes. The pace was slow again as 105 shots were taken by two teams who had averaged a combined 123 shots per game during the season. Tyler Hansbrough was ineffective for most of the game, but the rest of the Heels did more than enough against the Sooners. Blake Griffin had a slow and steady 23 points and 18 rebounds, but aside from him, Willie Warren, and Juan Pattillo the rest of the Sooners had 10 points total. Final score, North Carolina 72, Oklahoma 60.

My final pick was the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs had a four point lead going into the half, but the Hornets used a 9-0 run at the end of the third to go up by five in the final quarter. Chris Paul made a couple of amazing plays near the end leading to turnovers by San Antonio and even 6 straight points in 8 seconds near the end of the game could not unseat the Hornets. The clincher involved Chris Paul driving down the court, getting fouled, and flinging up a prayer from 40 feet out. The refs determined he intended to shoot the ball and granted the continuation and Chris Paul nailed three free throws to seal it. New Orleans won the game 90-86 and kept up in the race for home court. So on to the fracking picks.

1) Cambridge United @ Woking – Cambridge United win
2) New Jersey Devils @ New York Rangers – New York
3) Orlando Magic @ Miami Heat – Miami
4) David Lee reb. vs. Utah Jazz win margin – Utah win margin
5) UTEP @ Oregon State – Oregon State

Time to have fun tomorrow! Good luck!

Analysis
1) Cambridge United have 7 wins on the road all season. They won two away matches in the first 6 months of the season and have won 5 in the last two months, going 5-1-0 (W-D-L) in their last 6 away matches. Woking have gone 2-2-2 in their last 6 home matches, losing to Kettering Town and Eastbourne Borough, yet drawing against Burton Albion who are tops in the tables. Given that Cambridge United are playing their best on the road right now and they are 52 percent favorites in the European sports books I like their chances here.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

2) New York is 5-4-1 in their last 10 and New Jersey is also 5-4-1. New York is 4-1-0 in their last five home games. New Jersey is 1-3-1 in their last five away games. New Jersey is 3-2-0 against the Rangers head-to-head this season, with Clemmensen being in net for all three victories and Brodeur and Weekes each picking up a loss. Henrik Lundqvist was in net for New York in all five games. The Rangers are on a two game losing streak and the Devils are on a four game slide. The line for this game has opened with both teams at -110. I like the Rangers but much less so if Clemmensen is in net.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

4) David Lee averages 11.9 rebounds on the season and the Utah Jazz are 11 point favorites in Vegas. David Lee has been averaging 11.9 rebounds per game in his last 10 and 10.8 rebounds in his last 5 away games. Utah is 31-6 at home with their average margin of victory being 13.4 points, while New York has lost 25 games on the road by an average of 10.6 points.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

5) UTEP is a 1 point favorite in Vegas even though they’re on the road. UTEP has a greater rebounding margin on the season, and averaged more blocks and assists than Oregon State did. They have a much higher adjusted points rating, but they do come out with more empty possessions than Oregon State. Oregon State shoots better from the field and makes more three pointers. UTEP is a good free throw shooting team and shoots over three times as many free throws as Oregon State per game. Oregon State plays a zone defense which UTEP has seen in only a few games this season. UTEP won each game against the zone. Oregon State must win this game with the next two games in the CBI championship series being played in El Paso. Stefon Jackson will need to be able to get to the line often to help crack Oregon State’s zone as the Miners are not a great outside shooting team.
Confidence: W3 streak or less