Odds On Most Any Matchup: 5dimesSkyBetBetFairBetUS

And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Wednesday, July 29, 2009

July 30th, 2009 Picks

(skip to picks)1-2-0 today with Man U doing right by me but then just pure patheticry. First the danger in picking Duke I pointed out, they like to pull him early, was spot on. 7 shutout innings, 87 pitches, 6 hits. I guess that's not the kind of pitcher you want to keep in, not when you can pinch hit for them with two outs and nobody on base. Cain got a complete game shutout and a no-decision. Sad. Philadelphia then decided to celebrate the acquisition of Cliff Lee by tickling one another's taints in the dugout while spazzing out at bat, allowing Yusmeiro Petit to dominate them. I guess they figure pitching is their strength now. Hahah, but seriously nice one Petit, way to save your job. And on to the picks.

Anderson, Valencia Tally First Career Red Devils Goals In Defeat Of Boca
Manchester United 2 - 1 Boca Juniors
Manchester United showed they'll still be a tough club with or without Ronaldo and Tevez though Alex Ferguson did express some concern over their play.
``Anderson, whose 75 senior appearances for United have so far produced not a single goal, ended his barren run, albeit in a non-competitive fixture, with a curling left-foot free-kick on 23 minutes of this Audi Cup clash in the Allianz Arena. Had Ronaldo still been a United player, it is unlikely that Anderson would have been allowed anywhere near the set-piece, yet the former Porto midfielder displayed rare accuracy to send the ball past the statuesque goalkeeper Roberto Abbondanzieri. Ferguson has conceded that expecting Valencia to prove a direct replacement for Ronaldo would be a tall order, but the 23 year-old was bright and positive before he extended United's lead with a long range strike on 42 minutes. Having received the ball from Wayne Rooney 40 yards from goal, Valencia raced past two Boca defenders before aiming a right-foot effort goalwards from the edge of the penalty area. Abbondanzieri should have saved comfortably, but ball squirmed under the Argentina No 1's body, enabling Valencia to claim a welcome debut goal."
Read More....`Boca Were The Better Team In The Second Half'Manchester RecapBoca RecapHighlights
See Anderson's 1st Goal
See Valencia Put ManU Up 2-0

Cain Misses Chance For 13th Win As Giants Finally Tally In The Tenth
San Francisco Giants 1 - 0 Pittsburgh Pirates (in 10)
M. Cain 9 IP, 0 ER; Z. Duke 7 IP, 0 ER
It's difficult to truly criticize Pittsburgh for pulling Duke after 87 pitches even though he had not given up a run. His replacement, Grabow, pitched two perfect innings before Capps blew it in the 10th.
``Randy Winn lined an RBI single down the first-base line with two outs in the 10th inning and the San Francisco Giants beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 1-0 on Wednesday for a three-game sweep. Cain, named an NL All-Star but unable to participate because of an arm injury, struck out four and walked two in an impressive 111-pitch outing. He hasn't lost in six starts since a June 26 defeat at Milwaukee. Pirates left-hander Zach Duke hung tough with Cain, working out of some tough jams to keep the game scoreless. The Giants squandered scoring chances in the second, fourth, fifth and seventh innings."
Read More....Box ScorePhotos

Phucking Phillies Dominated By Yusmeiro
Arizona Diamondbacks 4 - 0 Philadelphia Phillies
Petit is a guy who got chased by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 41/3 innings in his last start. This kind of shit really happens in baseball. 9 runs in one inning against Cueto one day, zero runs in 9 innings against YPet the next.
``Facing the potent Phillies lineup, Petit gave up a leadoff single to Jimmy Rollins, then began to cruise. He allowed a single to Raul Ibanez leading off the second before retiring 15 of the next 16 batters, including 13 straight at one point. `It feels good, especially against that team,' Petit said through an interpreter. `It's a strong and pretty good-hitting club. It makes you feel good about yourself.' After Ryan Howard singled and Ibanez doubled to open the seventh, Petit left to a standing ovation from the Chase Field crowd. Juan Gutierrez came on and struck out Jayson Werth and Greg Dobbs before walking Carlos Ruiz to load the bases. Gutierrez escaped the jam by retiring pinch-hitter Pedro Feliz on a fly to center. `To come out of that unscathed is pretty much the story of the game in that one inning,' Arizona manager A.J. Hinch said."
Read More....Box ScorePhotos

1) Stuart Appleby vs. Scott Verplank - Verplank cards a lower front 9 score
2) Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets - New York
3) Boca Juniors vs. AC Milan - Boca Juniors
4) Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles - Kansas City
5) Tiger Woods' Score On The Four Par 5's: 18 strokes or fewer vs. 19 strokes or more - 18 or fewer
6) Larry Mize vs. Tom Watson - Watson cards a lower first round score
7) San Antonio Silver Stars @ Sacramento Monarchs - Sacramento
8) Manchester United @ Bayern Munich - Bayern Munich
9) Phoenix Mercury @ Atlanta Dream - Phoenix
10) Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis
11) Montreal Alouettes @ Edmonton Eskimos - 55 points or more
12) Philadelphia Phillies @ San Francisco Giants - Philadelphia
13) How Many Runs Will Be Scored In Innings 4 Through 6 (Philles @ Giants): 2 or less vs. 3 or more - 3 or more


Tiger Woods' Par 5 Scores
5) Tiger Woods has played this course each year from 2002 to 2006, making the cut all four years, and winning the tournament twice. This is his first year playing the Buick Open since then, however. In those five years he played 20 rounds and managed to complete the four par 5's in 18 strokes or fewer 13 times. In 2003 he took 14 strokes on the par 5's one round, carding two eagles and two birdies. In the five first rounds he played he took 18 or fewer strokes only twice, however. The par 5's on this course are all fairly easy with the most difficult of them being the 13th most difficult over the past 24 years. The average score on all four par 5's over those 24 years is under par. One might wish to look at completed rounds on the leaderboard to get a sense of how many players are taking 18 or fewer strokes on these holes but I imagine that list will include players who are not even going to make the cut. In other words, it won't take Tiger being Tiger to go under here today.

July 29th, 2009 Picks

(skip to picks)Gah, I knew I shouldn't have drowned that baby kitten the other day as I'm currently being raped by karma for it. 0-2-0 today with the Braves and Blue Jays. Two walk off hits, two losses. Whether it was a home run or a single chipped off the dirt (check out the Mariners video to see the hit) the team I picked against got what it needed. Oh well, I'm going to drown a baby kitten tomorrow anyways. Take that karma!

Florida Marlins 4 - 3 Atlanta Braves
Gload pinch hit in the bottom of the ninth and gave Rafael Soriano his second blown save in 18 tries this season. This kind of thing just happens.
``Starters Jair Jurrjens and Ricky Nolasco departed with the score 2-2. Jurrjens pitched six innings, Nolasco seven. Atlanta's Garret Anderson hit a go-ahead homer to lead off the top of the ninth against Leo Nunez (3-3). Pinch-hitter Ross Gload hit a two-run homer with one out in the bottom of the ninth, and the Florida Marlins rallied past the Atlanta Braves 4-3 on Tuesday night. Cody Ross walked against Rafael Soriano (1-2) to start the ninth and advanced on a sacrifice. Gload pulled a 3-1 pitch into the right-field seats and was mobbed by teammates when he reached the plate. Soriano blew a save for only the second time in 16 chances."
Read More....Box ScorePhotos

Seattle Mariners 4 - 3 Toronto Blue Jays
First off, I can't believe Ichiro hasn't had a walk-off hit before today. Second of all, check the 'read more' link. What a great hit. I still think baseball players are the least athletic of any sport though. Look at the medium trot the Blue Jays fielders use to try and get to that one. Plops down right between them.
``Ichiro Suzuki dumped an 0-2 pitch from Toronto reliever Scott Downs into center field with two outs in the ninth inning to score Rob Johnson, and the Seattle Mariners snapped their four-game losing streak with a 4-3 victory over the Blue Jays on Tuesday night. Suzuki golfed the pitch nearly off the dirt and served it over the head of shortstop Marco Scutaro and in front of center fielder Vernon Wells. It was the first game-ending hit of Suzuki's career. Seattle loaded the bases with no outs in the ninth off Downs. He got two quick outs, but couldn't sneak the last pitch past the league leader in hits."
Read More....Box Score

1) Boca Juniors vs. Manchester United - Manchester United win
2) AC Milan @ Bayern Munich - Bayern Munich win
3) Zach Duke vs. Matt Cain - Duke pitches more innings
4) Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles - Kansas City
5) New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays - Tampa Bay
6) Los Angeles Sparks @ Chicago Sky - Chicago
7) Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers - Detroit
8) Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis
9) Everton vs. MLS All-Stars - MLS All-Stars win
10) Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Philadelphia
11) Result Of Ryan Howard's 2nd Plate Appearance: Hit or Walk vs. Any Other Result - Hit or walk


This shows how often Duke and Cain have pitched a certain number of innings. Note: `6' is 6 to 6.2 innings.
Click image for larger view.
3) The graph on the right is a histogram showing how often Zach Duke and Matt Cain have pitched a certain number of innings. They've each started 20 games this season. Matt Cain's starts add up to 19 because he has one start where he pitched 12/3 innings and had to leave after being struck in the arm with a line drive. That was on July 11th and since then he's come back to pitch two games for 7 innings so he's fine, health-wise. Aside from that one game Cain is averaging 6.8 innings per start while Duke is averaging 7 innings per start. The graph shows that Cain has a couple more complete games under his belt but that Duke has finished 8 innings six times while Cain has gone through the 8th in only those three complete games. San Francisco has shown a greater willingness to let Cain finish games but Duke has shown a greater ability to get through innings efficiently.

Duke really is a more economical pitcher and that is the main reason I give him the nod in this prop. So far this season batters are swinging at 29% of his pitches outside the zone and making contact with 69% of those pitches. Compare that with Cain who is getting batters to chase on only 25.3% of his pitches. Batters are only making contact with 59.5% of those pitches. Overall, Duke gets batters to put the ball into play with fewer pitches then and with a 1.23 WHIP those are generally turning into outs. One can also look at each team's plate discipline. The Giants are `tops' in the league when it comes to swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone. The Pirates aren't great but nowhere near as bad as the Giants. The last time Duke pitched against San Francisco he used up 82 pitches to complete 7 innings. Matt Cain also pitched 7 innings in that game but it took him 107 pitches to get there. The one danger picking Duke is that Pittsburgh likes to relieve Duke early in his pitch count, especially in close games. They have a lot of faith in the bullpen.