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And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Friday, February 27, 2009

February 27th, 2009 Picks

Well, 6 out of 13 correct is less than 50, but it’s more than 40. Very tiring day for me today with lots of interviews and whatnot. My morning picks were OK except Fiorentina and Ajax couldn’t find it in their hearts to put it in the goal once in the first half. Damn Vaden also; UAB could easily have won that game without him missing all 17 of his shots. After going something like 10-1 on over/unders since the middle of January I’ve missed the last two! I blame the refs for both of those, in the KSU/Mizzou game for not letting them play hard defense and in yesterday’s for letting them play too hard of defense. OK, OK, so maybe I need to think a little harder on those instead of just crunching numbers. Anyways, on to the picks.

1) Bo Van Pelt vs. Bill Haas – Van Pelt has the lower second round score
2) Luke Donald vs. Ernie Els – Els
3) Geoff Ogilvy vs. Camilla Villegas – Villegas
4) Arminia Bielefeld @ FC Cologne – Arminia Bielefeld win or draw
5) Wales @ France – France
6) Richard Hamilton vs. Hedo Turkoglu – Turkoglu
7) Siena @ Niagara – Siena
8) Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks – New York
9) Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets – Los Angeles
10) Illinois-Chicago @ Loyola (IL) – Loyola (IL)
11) Cleveland @ San Antonio – Cleveland
12) Tampa Bay @ Vancouver – 6 goals or more

1) There’s a reason Bo Van Pelt is leading the field at El Camaleon golf course. He hit over 70% of his tee shots on the fairway and reached 13 of the greens with a chance to putt for birdie. Accuracy is important on this course since there is sand/wasteland bordering some fairways, small caves guarding greens, and thick tropical underbrush on other holes. Van Pelt is more accurate on his tee shots than Haas in general. He also putted excellently in the first round, taking the fewest number of putts overall and averaging the second lowest number of putts per green in regulation. Haas will have a difficult time if he can’t drive accurately since he won’t have the chance to gain strokes with his iron play and putting.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

2) Donald has had 6 bogeys in his two matches combined, Els has had zero. Singh had 5 bogeys in his match against Donald and still went 19 holes to lose by 1. Els has experience on his side here and I see him winning 2 and 1.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

4) FC Cologne has 3 outright victories on their home pitch. Both teams are playing very well at the moment. I read the original German press conference and FC Cologne will not be resting many ‘excellent’ players. Still, they’ve found 3 points hard to come by at home and I like Arminia’s chances to pull a draw having won or draw 6 times on the road. 0 – 0 or 1 – 1 seems likely.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

5) France has been forced to make a number of changes to their lineup with many players not having the chance to practice together for even a week. Some of their guys are playing out of position too. France has only lost to Wales in France three times, going back to 1990, however. None of those losses has been by 10 or more points. France has won 6 times in that same period, by 33, 16, 12, 5, 28, and 11. France is the underdog here but they’ve done it before against Wales.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

6) Looks like Hedo has a home weighted average of 17.7 in his past 5 games versus Hamilton’s away weighted average of 16.0. Hedo also is at 1.25 points per shot on the season compared to 1.17 for Hamilton. Guess I’ll see if that pps stat helps for these NBA props too. Hamilton will be starting for the Pistons with AI most likely missing the game. This one will be close but with Hamilton having something to prove and with Prince guarding Turkoglu. Hamilton will have to show me he can shoot like his championship days before I’d take him here. Oh, and Hedo’s wife just had/is having a baby.
Confidence: W0 streak or less

7) Siena went to Allen Fieldhouse and gave the Jayhawks a good game, losing only by 7. Niagara lost at home once to Iona by 8, they also lost to Marist on the road. Siena is the underdog in Vegas but their past results scream favorite here.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

9) C’mon…. even if Nene were to make a miraculous recovery and play in this game it’s the Lakers. They’re playing great basketball right now.
Confidence: W13 streak or less

11) Tim Duncan is a game time decision for the Spurs which should make a big difference here. Tony Parker will have a tough time beating the Cavs by himself if he has to go off for 30 or 40 points again. Cleveland was embarrassed last night in Houston so they will be looking to get their confidence back by defeating a quality opponent. With Duncan I’m not sure, and without Duncan the Cavs win. See if you can’t get news on Duncan’s playing status 10 minutes before this locks before taking it.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

12) These two teams have not played each other previously this season. Last season Tampa Bay had Ramo in net, Vancouver had Luongo, and they scored 7 goals between them. Tonight Luongo should be in net for the Canucks, and the Lightning will have Ramo or McKenna, both of whom have been giving up goals lately. 6 of 10 of Tampa Bay’s most recent games have gone 6 goals or over and 7 of 10 of Vancouver’s have gone over.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

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