click it
2-2-0 yesterday, though it was nice to finish on a two game upswing. My first pick was the Baltimore Orioles. They took an early lead in the 1st inning as Loux gave up two singles and walked a third batter to load the bases. Adam Huff hit a sacrifice fly to score one run and the Angels got out of the inning down 1-0. Uehara was putting the start on a fine game with 5 strikeouts and no walks, while allowing 2 hits in the first three innings before an Izturis single and RBI triple by Morales evened the score at 1-1. The two teams continued to duel through the sixth inning as Uehara neared his 100th pitch. The Orioles scored the winning runs in the top of the 7th as Hunter and Morales lead off with solo pops to make the score 3-1. The Orioles came back with an RBI single by Markakis in the bottom of the 8th but Fuentes was equal to their efforts and held on for the 3-2 win. The Orioles wasted two opportunities given by Moeller hitting deep for a double and a triple in this game and Uehara earned his second loss of the season.
My next pick was the Chicago Cubs. Doug Davis and Ryan Dempster were near opposites in this game. Dempster gave up 5 runs on 6 hits while walking 3 batters and striking out 4. Davis pitched a full 7 innings and allowed zero runs and only two hits, while striking out 7 batters and walking 3. The game moved out of reach in the 7th inning when Arizona scored 5 runs; two runs being walked in by Marmol and a 3 RBI double by Upton given up by Samardzjia. The final score was Arizona 10, Chicago Cubs 0.
My third pick was Ryan Zimmerman to record more total bases. Zimmerman grounded into a double play in the 1st inning while Utley struck out. In the 3rd inning Zimmerman came up to bat with the bases loaded and was walked to tie the game at 1-1. Utley grounded out in his next two at bats while Zimmerman hit a lead off double in the top of the 6th inning. Zimmerman fouled out and flied out in his last two at bats and Utley was walked in his final at bat. Zimmerman finished with 2 total baes to 0 for Utley and the Nationals won the game 4-1.
My final pick was 197 points or fewer in the Nuggets/Hornets game. The pace was good for 198 points or more until the final 5 minutes of the first half when the teams combined for 12 points. A 4 minute period in the third quarter with 8 points combined being scored kept the score low, and it was mainly a flurry of three pointers by J.R. Smith that kept 198 points within reach. Down the stretch Denver built up a 20 point lead and with 90 seconds remaining the starters came out of the game. Denver kept playing defense but the offenses of both teams were reduced to three point shooting. Denver advanced to the second round with a 107-86 win over the Hornets. So, I suppose it’s on to the picks.
1) Angel Cabrera vs. Retief Goosen – Goosen cards a lower front 9 score
2) Shakhtar Donetsk @ Dynamo Kiev – Shakhtar Donetsk win or draw
3) Anthony Kim vs. Phil Mickelson – Kim cards a lower first round score
4) Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers – Texas
5) Hamburg SV @ Werder Bremen – Werder Bremen win
6) Boston Celtics @ Chicago Bulls – Chicago
7) Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays – Boston
8) Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers – Arizona
9) Chicago Blackhawks @ Vancouver Canucks – Vancouver
10) Portland Trail Blazers @ Houston Rockets – 181 points or more
11) San Diego Padres vs. M. Ramirez and M. Kemp – Padres total runs
The money line ‘dog in Vegas has been the straight up winner for the last 9 MLB matchups on here. I’m not kidding. Good luck youses!
Analysis
1) This is only the seventh year this event has been on the Tour, where it was known as the Wachovia Championship. The course has undergone many changes over the years and some of the new changes are discussed in this hole-by-hole tour of the course. The greens are sharply sloped and the fairways are lined with trees making driving accuracy a necessity, unlike on other courses where the rough is the main hazard off the fairway. Angel Cabrera has a putting average of 1.787, driving accuracy of 49.6%, and a scoring average of 70.21. He also averages 3.67 birdies per round. Retief Goosen has a putting average of 1.793, driving accuracy of 61.5%, and a scoring average of 70.51. He averages 3.08 birdies per round. Cabrera has played this event once, carding front 9 scores of -3, +1, -1, and +8. Goosen has played twice, in 2007 and 2006, and carded -2 twice, -1 three times, even par once, and +1 and +2 once each. Remember, driving accuracy is just the number of fairways hit off the tee with a driver so it has no bearing on how badly each player may hook or slice. This is a very even matchup if one tosses out Cabreras final round 44 on the front 9 here last year.
2) Dynamo Kiev are 12 points clear of 2nd place Shakhtar Donetsk in the Ukrainian Premier League. They have completely dominated that league. Both sides have impressive results in the Group stage of Champions League this year, with Shakhtar Donetsk drawing Inter Milan 1-1 at San Siro and Dynamo Kiev defeating FC Porto 1-0 at Estadio do Dragao. Dynamo Kiev have never been shutout in 22 home matches this season while Shakhtar Donetsk have been shutout in 8 away matches. Dynamo Kiev have scored 2 or more goals in 8 of 22 home matches while Shakhtar Donetsk have scored 2 or more goals in 14 of 22 away matches. Neither side has allowed any more than 2 goals to be scored in those 22 matches as well. I like Shakhtar Donetsk’s defense to keep Dynamo Kiev from scoring more than 2 and their counter attack to keep the score level.
4) Vicente Padilla is pitching for the Texas Rangers and Dallas Braden for the Oakland Athletics. The pitching matchup favors the A’s but Braden may have a difficult time finding support from his batters. Nomar Garciaparra and Ellis are out for the Athletics and Jason Giambi is probable, but may still be shrugging off the effects of injury. The A’s have a much stronger bullpen who have a combnied WHIP of 1.10 and ERA of 2.64 while Texas’ bullpen has a combined WHIP of 1.78 and 6.52 ERA. It may not be enough for Oakland, however. In 41 at bats the Rangers’ batters, minus the injured Hamilton, have a combined batting average of .341 and slugging average of .512 against Braden.
5) Werder Bremen have played two away matches against Hamburg SV, one a 2-1 loss and the other a 1-1 draw. Now they are playing at home. Hamburg SV are 1-0-3 (W-D-L) in their last 4 away matches, losing to Borussia Dortmund, Manchester City, and VfB Stuttgart. They have been outscored 6-3 in those 4 matches. Werder Bremen are 4-0-0 in their last 4 home matches, defeating VfB Stuttgart, Hannover 96, Udinese, and VfL Bochum. They have outscored their opposition 14-4 in those four matches. Werder Bremen have scored 3 or more goals in 10 of 21 home matches. A 2-1 win for Werder Bremen is most likely with a 1-1 draw being the next most likely result.
7) Josh Beckett has struggled a bit to start this season. His 6.00 ERA and 1.63 WHIP are off from last season’s 4.03 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He’s also a long ways off from last seasons 5:1 SO:BB ratio. Aside from one relatively poor outing against the Yankees, a 16-11 Red Sox win, Beckett has a 3.60 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 20 innings pitched. Garza is having a fairly good season and has done well against the Red Sox who have a career batting average of .216 against Garza. The Rays have a career batting average of .210 against Beckett to go along with a .262 on-base percentage, though. Garza has put Red Sox batters on base at a .368 rate. Overall the Red Sox have a much stronger bullpen and that could be the difference here. Kevin Youkilis and J.D. Drew may miss this game, however, so it would be prudent to check out the game day lineups beforehand.
11) Ramirez and Kemp get 0 or 1 total base each in over 50% of their games. They average a combined 4 total bases per game owing to the 8 or more total bases each has gotten two or three times in the past 182 games. The Padres score at least 3 runs 6 out of 10 times so they’re not a great offensive power, but they only need a few runs to be in good position to win this one. Here’s the breakdown of the Padres’ runs scored and Manny and Kemp’s total bases in each game in this season and last season.
And So It Goes....
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Manny, Matt... I am your Padre.
Here I made a couple of graphs, one for Ramirez and Kemp's total bases and one for the Padres' runs scored. I looked at their average total bases and runs scored over the past 182 games to build a Poisson distribution. The Poisson distribution does a good job at predicting the probabilities near the average but underestimates low-scoring/low-hitting games and high-scoring/high-hitting games. So I also looked at the actual proportion of games with 'N' total bases or 'N' runs being scored. The results are below.
Looking first at Ramirez and Kemp's total bases one can see that in nearly 75% of games Ramirez and Kemp get 3 or fewer total bases. Looking at the Padres' runs scored one can see that they score 6 runs or fewer in over 80% of their games. Overall this slightly favors the Padres' runs scored since they score 0 to 2 runs in under 40% of their games while Ramirez and Kemp combine for 0 to 2 total bases in just over 50% of their games. The Dodgers' bullpen is tough with Broxton, Ohman, and Troncoso, but if the Padres can score just 4 runs off of McDonald I think they have a good chance of winning this.
Looking first at Ramirez and Kemp's total bases one can see that in nearly 75% of games Ramirez and Kemp get 3 or fewer total bases. Looking at the Padres' runs scored one can see that they score 6 runs or fewer in over 80% of their games. Overall this slightly favors the Padres' runs scored since they score 0 to 2 runs in under 40% of their games while Ramirez and Kemp combine for 0 to 2 total bases in just over 50% of their games. The Dodgers' bullpen is tough with Broxton, Ohman, and Troncoso, but if the Padres can score just 4 runs off of McDonald I think they have a good chance of winning this.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
April 29th, 2009 Picks
Ouch, 0-1-1 today when I made the wrong MLB pick. My first pick was Bolelli which was cancelled fortuitously due to a long weather delay in Rome. My second pick was the Detroit Tigers. Edwin Jackson and Phil Hughes had dueled to a scoreless tie after 6 innings, with Jackson giving up 4 hits and Hughes only 2 hits. Jackson had reached 117 pitches by that point and so the bullpen was brought in for the Tigers. Suffice it to say it was the first time a scoreless tie through 6 or more innings was broken open with a 10 run inning by one team since 1913. A misread pop fly error, numerous walks, RBI singles, and a grand slam were all it took for the Yankees to run away in this game. In the end New York broke it’s losing streak with an 11-0 win over the Tigers. So on to the picks.
1) Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles – Baltimore
2) Josh Johnson vs. Johan Santana – Santana pitches more innings
3) Arsenal @ Manchester United – Arsenal win or draw
4) Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks – Chicago
5) St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves – Atlanta
6) Ryan Zimmerman vs. Chase Utley – Zimmerman records more total bases
7) New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers – 9 runs or fewer
8) Dwyane Wade vs. Atlanta Hawks win margin – Atlanta win margin
9) Tampa Bay Rays @ Minnesota Twins – Tampa Bay
10) New Orleans Hornets @ Denver Nuggets – 197 points or fewer
Analysis
2) Josh Johnson is a solid pitcher and has already recorded one complete game this season. Yes, against the New York Mets, in fact. From last season till now he has averaged just over 191/3 innings pitched. Johan Santana averaged just over 201/3 innings pitched in games last season till now. I would give Santana a slight edge based on his pedigree. In terms of pitches per batter retired Johnson averages 5.3 and Santana averages 5.2, essentially the same number. This could very easily go either way and depends more on how soon in the count batters are retired more than anything else.
3) Manchester United are at full strength while Arsenal are dealing with several injuries. Arsenal will be fielding the same team that drew away 4-4 at Anfield against Liverpool, with the additions of Cesc Fabregas and Johan Djourou. Based solely on their average number of goals scored and conceded in home and away matches I would give Arsenal a 53 percent chance of coming away with a win or a draw.
4) Ryan Dempster and Doug Davis are the starting pitchers for the Cubs and the Diamondbacks, respectively. Both are off to fairly good starts this season with Dempster recording a 4.88 ERA and 1.42 WHIP while Davis has a 3.67 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Davis has had a WHIP of over 1.50 for each of the past three seasons and without a real rocket of an arm many expect he will end up back there again. In the past three games the Cubs have been killing the ball with a batting average of .291 and slugging average of .518. Davis has done well against the Cubs lineup, but their heavy hitters have shown an aptitude for getting big base hits when facing his stuff. The Diamondbacks have also been hitting fairly well recently, but their career slugging average against Dempster is only .358. Both teams’ bullpens have not done terribly well this year, with ERA’s of over 4.00 and WHIP’s over 1.50. I think the Cubs will be able to build a lead of 4 or 5 runs against Davis and should end up with the victory here.
6) The bulk of my analysis, including some graphs showing probabilities of total bases per game for each player, and the actual distribution of games with ‘N’ total bases, can be found here. I mainly like Zimmerman here because his career slugging average is .667 against Brett Myers while Utley has a career slugging average of .464 against Scott Olsen.
9) The Tampa Bay Rays look to avenge a 4-3 loss to the Twins last night with Scott Kazmir on the mound. Kazmire has recorded a 3.97 ERA and 1.32 WHIP so far this year, while his overall stats last season were a bit better. In one game against the Twins last year he allowed 0 earned runs and gave up 5 hits and 1 walk in 6 innings. Overall the Twins’ batters have a .194 batting average and a .328 slugging average off of Kazmir. Nick Blackburn has done fairly well this season with a 4.44 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. In one game last year he had a dismal outing against the Rays, pitching 11/3 innings and giving up 6 earned runs, on 6 hits and walking 3 batters. Both teams have struggled at the plate a bit recently with batting averages of .222 and .223 for the Rays and Twins, respectively. The Rays have gotten a bit more out of those hits, however, with a slugging average of .384 leading to 11 runs in those last three games. The Twins have a slugging average of .309 and 7 runs in their last three. The Rays' bullpen outpaces the Twins’ in statistical categories such as ERA, WHIP, and home runs given up. The Twins’ bullpen leads in the most important category, however, with a 4-1 record compared to an 0-3 record for the Rays. Overall I think Kazmir’s pitching will allow the Rays to take a lead and the Twins’ generally weaker hitting will not be able to catch up.
10) Well, it should be clear to everyone that the Hornets will absolutely not turn in another performance like they did the other night in losing by 58 points at home to the Nuggets. Their offense should look sharper, and the Nuggets will most likely struggle a bit more than they did in that game. The Hornets may not be able to muster the motivation to be 100 percent effective on the offensive end of te court, however, and the Nuggets, being a good defensive team, should be able to limit their points. It could be very close to going over, especially if the Nuggets come out playing lackadaisically, but I don’t think either team will break 100 in this game.
1) Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles – Baltimore
2) Josh Johnson vs. Johan Santana – Santana pitches more innings
3) Arsenal @ Manchester United – Arsenal win or draw
4) Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks – Chicago
5) St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves – Atlanta
6) Ryan Zimmerman vs. Chase Utley – Zimmerman records more total bases
7) New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers – 9 runs or fewer
8) Dwyane Wade vs. Atlanta Hawks win margin – Atlanta win margin
9) Tampa Bay Rays @ Minnesota Twins – Tampa Bay
10) New Orleans Hornets @ Denver Nuggets – 197 points or fewer
Analysis
2) Josh Johnson is a solid pitcher and has already recorded one complete game this season. Yes, against the New York Mets, in fact. From last season till now he has averaged just over 191/3 innings pitched. Johan Santana averaged just over 201/3 innings pitched in games last season till now. I would give Santana a slight edge based on his pedigree. In terms of pitches per batter retired Johnson averages 5.3 and Santana averages 5.2, essentially the same number. This could very easily go either way and depends more on how soon in the count batters are retired more than anything else.
3) Manchester United are at full strength while Arsenal are dealing with several injuries. Arsenal will be fielding the same team that drew away 4-4 at Anfield against Liverpool, with the additions of Cesc Fabregas and Johan Djourou. Based solely on their average number of goals scored and conceded in home and away matches I would give Arsenal a 53 percent chance of coming away with a win or a draw.
4) Ryan Dempster and Doug Davis are the starting pitchers for the Cubs and the Diamondbacks, respectively. Both are off to fairly good starts this season with Dempster recording a 4.88 ERA and 1.42 WHIP while Davis has a 3.67 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Davis has had a WHIP of over 1.50 for each of the past three seasons and without a real rocket of an arm many expect he will end up back there again. In the past three games the Cubs have been killing the ball with a batting average of .291 and slugging average of .518. Davis has done well against the Cubs lineup, but their heavy hitters have shown an aptitude for getting big base hits when facing his stuff. The Diamondbacks have also been hitting fairly well recently, but their career slugging average against Dempster is only .358. Both teams’ bullpens have not done terribly well this year, with ERA’s of over 4.00 and WHIP’s over 1.50. I think the Cubs will be able to build a lead of 4 or 5 runs against Davis and should end up with the victory here.
6) The bulk of my analysis, including some graphs showing probabilities of total bases per game for each player, and the actual distribution of games with ‘N’ total bases, can be found here. I mainly like Zimmerman here because his career slugging average is .667 against Brett Myers while Utley has a career slugging average of .464 against Scott Olsen.
9) The Tampa Bay Rays look to avenge a 4-3 loss to the Twins last night with Scott Kazmir on the mound. Kazmire has recorded a 3.97 ERA and 1.32 WHIP so far this year, while his overall stats last season were a bit better. In one game against the Twins last year he allowed 0 earned runs and gave up 5 hits and 1 walk in 6 innings. Overall the Twins’ batters have a .194 batting average and a .328 slugging average off of Kazmir. Nick Blackburn has done fairly well this season with a 4.44 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. In one game last year he had a dismal outing against the Rays, pitching 11/3 innings and giving up 6 earned runs, on 6 hits and walking 3 batters. Both teams have struggled at the plate a bit recently with batting averages of .222 and .223 for the Rays and Twins, respectively. The Rays have gotten a bit more out of those hits, however, with a slugging average of .384 leading to 11 runs in those last three games. The Twins have a slugging average of .309 and 7 runs in their last three. The Rays' bullpen outpaces the Twins’ in statistical categories such as ERA, WHIP, and home runs given up. The Twins’ bullpen leads in the most important category, however, with a 4-1 record compared to an 0-3 record for the Rays. Overall I think Kazmir’s pitching will allow the Rays to take a lead and the Twins’ generally weaker hitting will not be able to catch up.
10) Well, it should be clear to everyone that the Hornets will absolutely not turn in another performance like they did the other night in losing by 58 points at home to the Nuggets. Their offense should look sharper, and the Nuggets will most likely struggle a bit more than they did in that game. The Hornets may not be able to muster the motivation to be 100 percent effective on the offensive end of te court, however, and the Nuggets, being a good defensive team, should be able to limit their points. It could be very close to going over, especially if the Nuggets come out playing lackadaisically, but I don’t think either team will break 100 in this game.
The $40 Million Man Vs. That Slugger From The World Series Champions
For this prop I looked at three things. The Poisson distribution for Ryan Zimmerman and Chase Utley based on their total bases from each game played this season and last season, their actual proportion of games with 'N' total bases from those seasons, and a Poisson distribution based on their career statistics against the opposing pitcher. Those results can be seen in the clickable image below.
The first two graphs show that neither player is much more likely to record a small number of total bases, and that Utley has around a 1 in 20 chance of having a big game with 5 total bases. Zimmerman really has no chance of recording 5 or more total bases. Interestingly, Zimmerman had a double, or two singles, in just over a quarter of his games in the past two seasons. Utley is a good home run hitter, however, with 4 total bases in over 10% of his games. The stats that make me lean towards Zimmerman are the batter vs. pitcher stats. For the third graph I looked at each players' slugging average against the opposing pitcher and multiplied that by 4, as 4 is a high estimate on the average number of at bats per game. This 'average' was used to generate the Poisson distributions. In these one can see that Zimmerman is more likely to hit big off of Myers than Utley is off of Olsen. One home run by either player should wrap it up, so I choose Zimmerman with strong reservations. Good luck!
The first two graphs show that neither player is much more likely to record a small number of total bases, and that Utley has around a 1 in 20 chance of having a big game with 5 total bases. Zimmerman really has no chance of recording 5 or more total bases. Interestingly, Zimmerman had a double, or two singles, in just over a quarter of his games in the past two seasons. Utley is a good home run hitter, however, with 4 total bases in over 10% of his games. The stats that make me lean towards Zimmerman are the batter vs. pitcher stats. For the third graph I looked at each players' slugging average against the opposing pitcher and multiplied that by 4, as 4 is a high estimate on the average number of at bats per game. This 'average' was used to generate the Poisson distributions. In these one can see that Zimmerman is more likely to hit big off of Myers than Utley is off of Olsen. One home run by either player should wrap it up, so I choose Zimmerman with strong reservations. Good luck!
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
April 28th, 2009 Picks
1-0-0 today as my baby streak entered the terrible twos and keeps yelling at me that “No!” it does not want to turn 3. Hopefully you checked here prior to 6:30pm or so when I changed away from Anaheim, Boston, and Colorado. My one and only pick for the day was L.A. Lakers winning margin. The game started out tightly contested with the Jazz forcing quite a few turnovers and knocking down shots. The first quarter ended with the score knotted at 26. The Lakers put some distance between them in the second quarter and went up by 13 while Deron Williams recorded 6 assists.
The third quarter had the Lakers extending their lead to 23 and Williams failing to get a single assist before being subbed out for Ronnie Price. This prop was put to bed… or so it seemed. At some point in the fourth quarter Price and Paul Millsap decided to up the intensity to ‘11’ and keyed a comeback by the Jazz that forced Jackson to put his starters back in the game. At one point the Lakers’ lead was down to 6 points and after a turnover Price and Williams ran down the court, with Price bouncing the ball to Deron. Williams missed the layup and from there the Lakers held on to win by 11 points. Williams did not record a single assist in the second half and finished the game with 6, easiliy in his bottom 10% of games this season. So on to the picks.
Oh yea, and 121-63?
1) Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. Simone Bolelli – Bolelli
2) Chelsea @ Barcelona – Barcelona win
3) Derrick Rose vs. Rajon Rondo – Rondo pts.
4) New York Rangers (lose by 1 or win) @ Washington Capitals (win by 2 plus) – Washington
5) New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers – Detroit
6) Florida Marlins @ New York Mets – New York
7) Carolina Hurricanes @ New Jersey Devils – New Jersey
8) Tampa Bay Rays @ Minnesota Twins – Minnesota
9) Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox – Seattle
10) Spurs (vs. Mavericks) vs. Trail Blazers (vs. Rockets) – Trail Blazers win margin
11) Chad Billingsley vs. San Francisco Giants – Giants total hits
Analysis
1) Philipp Kohlschreiber has more experience on the ATP Tour and is currently ranked 39th. Simone Bolelli is a relative newcomer and is ranked 41st. Bolelli has won four Challengers and Futures events on clay courts, but Kohlschreiber has won an ATP event on clay, in April of 2007. Just this year Bolelli played Rafael Nadal and won the first set, before losing the second set and the third set in a tiebreak. In their only previous meeting Bolelli defeated Kohlschreiber in straight sets, 6-4 6-3. You can read more about Kohlschreiber by clicking here and about Bolelli by clicking here. Their head-to-head comparison can be found here and you can click on each players’ name to see their career stats and playing histories.
2) Chelsea visit the Nou Camp to take on Barcelona in the first leg of the Champions League semi-finals. Barcelona are without defender Gabriel Milito who has been injured for a long while. Chelsea are without defenders Ashley Cole and Paulo Ferreira, which will force much of their backfield to play in unfamiliar positions as they attempt to stop Messi, Eto’o, and Henry. European sportsbooks have Barcelona at -167 while a Chelsea win is +450 and the draw is +260. Against a team like Barcelona the absence of Cole will be felt. I think Barcelona win 3-1 or 3-2, but a 2-2 draw is also a well favored result.
3) This is an interesting prop as Derrick Rose has been the more consistent of the two in scoring over 15 points during , while Rondo has been the more consistent during the series. Here are their distributions for games in which they played 35 minutes or more. One can see that Rose has a clear advantage. In games where Kevin Garnett has not played or in games against the Bulls, however, Rondo actually has a bit better odds. This should be very close unless one player or the other breaks out and scores 25 or more points. I think Rose has shown he can play poorly in this series, while Rondo has been nearly unstoppable for the Bulls. I give the advantage to Rondo based on that, but it should be within 5 points.
6) Ricky Nolasco and Livan Hernandez are starting for the Florida Marlins and New York Mets, respectively. Neither has gotten off to a good start this season with Nolasco recording a 6.86 ERA in 21 innings to go with a 1.67 WHIP and Hernandez pitching 16 innings to the tune of a 7.31 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. Last year Nolasco had a 3.52 ERA and 1.10 WHIP so he will be looking to return to that form tonight. The Mets have done well off of Nolasco in the past, however, with a career batting average of .351 and slugging average of .573. The Marlins have also batted well against Hernandez. Of the two Nolasco is more likely to pitch a good game and give the Marlins the lead. He will need help from the offense which has been hard to come by lately. In their last three games the Marlins are batting .178 and slugging .267. I think both teams will improve their batting numbers in this game, and the Marlins might take a small lead in a high scoring game, but their weak bullpen (5.16 ERA and 1.62 WHIP) will allow the Mets to win in the end.
9) Felix Hernandez for the Mariners faces off against John Danks for the White Sox in the second game of a doubleheader tonight. Hernandez is one of the best young pitchers, if not the best, in the major leagues. After a rocky start with a twisted ankle he’s pitched 13 innings while allowing only 1 run and 11 hits and striking out 13 batters to 4 walks. The White Sox have done well against Hernandez in the past, especially when he hasn’t been fully healthy. Last year he had a 9.00 ERA and 2.80 WHIP against the Sox. In 57 at bats the White Sox have batted .368 and slugged .825! John Danks has gotten off to a stellar start, pitching 19 innings and recording an ERA of 0.95 and WHIP of 0.84. The Mariners have done well against Danks in the past, however, batting over .300 in 59 at bats. This is supposed to be a pitchers’ duel but I think there be more than a few runs scored by each team. I think the Mariners have the stronger bullpen with Aardsma, White, and Kelly while the only top performers for the White Sox have been Linebrink and Jenks. If Aardsma, White, and Kelly do not pitch in the first game they should be able to carry the Marlins through in the second. It might also be a good idea to see who have the hot bats in the first game.
11) Since this involves the Giants’ total hits for the entire game rather than just off of Billingsley I have to give them the advantage here. Billingsley should be good for 5 to 9 strikeouts, but the Giants average 8 hits per game. If Billingsley pitches any less than his absolute best the Giants should outpace his strikeouts and then run away with the prop when the bullpens come in. I can see Billingsley having more strikeouts by the time he is relieved and the Giants then getting enough hits to push or win the prop by one at the end. Here are some probabilities to mull over while making your choice.
The third quarter had the Lakers extending their lead to 23 and Williams failing to get a single assist before being subbed out for Ronnie Price. This prop was put to bed… or so it seemed. At some point in the fourth quarter Price and Paul Millsap decided to up the intensity to ‘11’ and keyed a comeback by the Jazz that forced Jackson to put his starters back in the game. At one point the Lakers’ lead was down to 6 points and after a turnover Price and Williams ran down the court, with Price bouncing the ball to Deron. Williams missed the layup and from there the Lakers held on to win by 11 points. Williams did not record a single assist in the second half and finished the game with 6, easiliy in his bottom 10% of games this season. So on to the picks.
Oh yea, and 121-63?
1) Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. Simone Bolelli – Bolelli
2) Chelsea @ Barcelona – Barcelona win
3) Derrick Rose vs. Rajon Rondo – Rondo pts.
4) New York Rangers (lose by 1 or win) @ Washington Capitals (win by 2 plus) – Washington
5) New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers – Detroit
6) Florida Marlins @ New York Mets – New York
7) Carolina Hurricanes @ New Jersey Devils – New Jersey
8) Tampa Bay Rays @ Minnesota Twins – Minnesota
9) Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox – Seattle
10) Spurs (vs. Mavericks) vs. Trail Blazers (vs. Rockets) – Trail Blazers win margin
11) Chad Billingsley vs. San Francisco Giants – Giants total hits
Analysis
1) Philipp Kohlschreiber has more experience on the ATP Tour and is currently ranked 39th. Simone Bolelli is a relative newcomer and is ranked 41st. Bolelli has won four Challengers and Futures events on clay courts, but Kohlschreiber has won an ATP event on clay, in April of 2007. Just this year Bolelli played Rafael Nadal and won the first set, before losing the second set and the third set in a tiebreak. In their only previous meeting Bolelli defeated Kohlschreiber in straight sets, 6-4 6-3. You can read more about Kohlschreiber by clicking here and about Bolelli by clicking here. Their head-to-head comparison can be found here and you can click on each players’ name to see their career stats and playing histories.
2) Chelsea visit the Nou Camp to take on Barcelona in the first leg of the Champions League semi-finals. Barcelona are without defender Gabriel Milito who has been injured for a long while. Chelsea are without defenders Ashley Cole and Paulo Ferreira, which will force much of their backfield to play in unfamiliar positions as they attempt to stop Messi, Eto’o, and Henry. European sportsbooks have Barcelona at -167 while a Chelsea win is +450 and the draw is +260. Against a team like Barcelona the absence of Cole will be felt. I think Barcelona win 3-1 or 3-2, but a 2-2 draw is also a well favored result.
3) This is an interesting prop as Derrick Rose has been the more consistent of the two in scoring over 15 points during , while Rondo has been the more consistent during the series. Here are their distributions for games in which they played 35 minutes or more. One can see that Rose has a clear advantage. In games where Kevin Garnett has not played or in games against the Bulls, however, Rondo actually has a bit better odds. This should be very close unless one player or the other breaks out and scores 25 or more points. I think Rose has shown he can play poorly in this series, while Rondo has been nearly unstoppable for the Bulls. I give the advantage to Rondo based on that, but it should be within 5 points.
6) Ricky Nolasco and Livan Hernandez are starting for the Florida Marlins and New York Mets, respectively. Neither has gotten off to a good start this season with Nolasco recording a 6.86 ERA in 21 innings to go with a 1.67 WHIP and Hernandez pitching 16 innings to the tune of a 7.31 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. Last year Nolasco had a 3.52 ERA and 1.10 WHIP so he will be looking to return to that form tonight. The Mets have done well off of Nolasco in the past, however, with a career batting average of .351 and slugging average of .573. The Marlins have also batted well against Hernandez. Of the two Nolasco is more likely to pitch a good game and give the Marlins the lead. He will need help from the offense which has been hard to come by lately. In their last three games the Marlins are batting .178 and slugging .267. I think both teams will improve their batting numbers in this game, and the Marlins might take a small lead in a high scoring game, but their weak bullpen (5.16 ERA and 1.62 WHIP) will allow the Mets to win in the end.
9) Felix Hernandez for the Mariners faces off against John Danks for the White Sox in the second game of a doubleheader tonight. Hernandez is one of the best young pitchers, if not the best, in the major leagues. After a rocky start with a twisted ankle he’s pitched 13 innings while allowing only 1 run and 11 hits and striking out 13 batters to 4 walks. The White Sox have done well against Hernandez in the past, especially when he hasn’t been fully healthy. Last year he had a 9.00 ERA and 2.80 WHIP against the Sox. In 57 at bats the White Sox have batted .368 and slugged .825! John Danks has gotten off to a stellar start, pitching 19 innings and recording an ERA of 0.95 and WHIP of 0.84. The Mariners have done well against Danks in the past, however, batting over .300 in 59 at bats. This is supposed to be a pitchers’ duel but I think there be more than a few runs scored by each team. I think the Mariners have the stronger bullpen with Aardsma, White, and Kelly while the only top performers for the White Sox have been Linebrink and Jenks. If Aardsma, White, and Kelly do not pitch in the first game they should be able to carry the Marlins through in the second. It might also be a good idea to see who have the hot bats in the first game.
11) Since this involves the Giants’ total hits for the entire game rather than just off of Billingsley I have to give them the advantage here. Billingsley should be good for 5 to 9 strikeouts, but the Giants average 8 hits per game. If Billingsley pitches any less than his absolute best the Giants should outpace his strikeouts and then run away with the prop when the bullpens come in. I can see Billingsley having more strikeouts by the time he is relieved and the Giants then getting enough hits to push or win the prop by one at the end. Here are some probabilities to mull over while making your choice.
Will Billingsley Get More Strikeouts Than The Giants Get Hits?
Above is a graph showing the probability of Chad Billingsley recording a specific number of strikeouts, of giving up a certain number of hits, and of the Giants recording an exact number of total hits. If it were strikeouts versus the number of hits the Giants got off of Billingsley then Billingsley would be a good pick, but the Giants will get at least 1 and probably 2 or 3 innings to add on to their total hits. The Dodgers have a strong bullpen with a combined WHIP this season of 1.14, but that is still enough to allow two or three more hits for the Giants at the end of the game.
Rondo vs. Rose - Who Will Score More Points
Below is a pair of graphs showing the distribution of points one could expect in a typical game from Derrick Rose and Rajon Rondo. I used the data from games where Rose and Rondo played 35 minutes or more to try and reduce the effect of low-scoring, low-minute games. As usual, click on the graph to get a close-up view.
You can see that Rondo's average is only slightly higher than his overall season average and that is due solely to his 36 point overtime performance in Game 1. Rondo averaged quite a bit less in games where he played 35 minutes or more, during the regular season. Without Kevin Garnett in the lineup his numbers are very comparable to Rose's and his numbers against the Bulls were at that level whether or not Garnett played. Overall I would say Rose is the safer bet since one would be counting on Rondo to 'take over the game', essentially. The Celtics defense is terrific, but has had a diffficult time slowing up Rose so far. If you think Game2/Game 3 Rose is due to show then Rondo is a great pick. If Game1/Game4 Rose shows up then it's more of a toss-up and Rose could still win with Rondo deferring to his teammates.
You can see that Rondo's average is only slightly higher than his overall season average and that is due solely to his 36 point overtime performance in Game 1. Rondo averaged quite a bit less in games where he played 35 minutes or more, during the regular season. Without Kevin Garnett in the lineup his numbers are very comparable to Rose's and his numbers against the Bulls were at that level whether or not Garnett played. Overall I would say Rose is the safer bet since one would be counting on Rondo to 'take over the game', essentially. The Celtics defense is terrific, but has had a diffficult time slowing up Rose so far. If you think Game2/Game 3 Rose is due to show then Rondo is a great pick. If Game1/Game4 Rose shows up then it's more of a toss-up and Rose could still win with Rondo deferring to his teammates.
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