Dirk vs. 'Melo; Sharp vs. Smooth; Soft vs. Soft

Above are plots identical to those used in the Wade vs. Johnson prop. The Poisson estimations use Nowitzki's road games and Anthony's home games as their basis. The same with the bar graphs. One can see that during the regular season Nowitzki averaged nearly 6 more points on the road than Anthony did at home. One can also see that Nowitzki's production in the playoffs has not even been close to what it was during the regular season. Anthony, on the other hand, has picked up his production in the playoffs. Both players scored over 20 points per game during the season when they met head-to-head. One interesting note is that Nowitzki's season high of 44 came in a game at Denver and that Anthony's season high of 43 came in a game at Dallas. Nowitzki's struggles in the playoffs can be forgiven a bit because Gregg Popovich's Spurs always have good strategies for containing their opponents' stars, but the Nuggets will present just as many, if not more problems, for Nowitzki to contend with.

Dwyane Wade vs. Joe Johnson - What's Wrong With Joe?

The graphs above show two things for both Dwyane Wade and Joe Johnson. The bar charts show how many games Wade scored a certain number of points on the road this season and in the playoffs, and for Johnson the number of points, rebounds, and assists he accumulated in home games during the season. The vertical axis is the number of games. The line graphs show the Poisson distribution of games with a certain number of points over a large number of games. The additional line graph for Joe Johnson shows the Poisson distribution of his points, rebounds, and assists over a large number of games based on his production at home in the playoffs. One can see that Johnson's numbers have dropped considerably from his regular season numbers and that during the regular season he could very well be expected to outscore Wade in this prop. In the playoffs Wade has scored more points in 5 of the 6 games played, and had the same number of points as Johnson's points, rebounds, and assists in the other game. It's possible Johnson might break out of his funk, but it's at least as likely that Wade will take over and dominate in this make or break Game 7.

Ragin' Rondo vs. The Rosenfeld Railroad (Part 2)

Above are the discrete Poisson distribution of points for Derrick Rose and Rajon Rondo. One can see that Rose has picked up his production in the playoffs by about 2 points to around 20 points per game. He scored 36 and 23 in the first two games, then was limited to 10, 9, and 14 points before scoring 28 in the Bulls' double overtime Game 6 victory. I think he'll be aggressive in Game 7, and with Hinrich, Ben Gordon, and even Brad Miller emerging as threats inside and out the Celtics will be forced to defend him one-on-one. I would expect at least 20 points from Rose, but also that the Celtics' physical defense will keep him from scoring more than 25.

Rajon Rondo averaged only 14 points per game this season when he played 35 minutes or more, but many of those games were with Kevin Garnett on the court. Without Garnett one can see that Rondo averaged closer to 19 points per game. In these playoffs Rondo has also increased his scoring a couple of points to 21 points per game. He's been very consistent in this series, scoring 19 to 28 points in the first five games before scoring only 8 in Game 6 while doling out 19 assists. He is the fastest player on the court and should be able to get shots, albeit tough ones, off at will from close range. The Celtics cannot expect Ray Allen and Paul Pierce to score so many points and win the game so I can see Rondo being aggressive and scoring 25 or more here.

Manny, Matt... I am your Padre.

Here I made a couple of graphs, one for Ramirez and Kemp's total bases and one for the Padres' runs scored. I looked at their average total bases and runs scored over the past 182 games to build a Poisson distribution. The Poisson distribution does a good job at predicting the probabilities near the average but underestimates low-scoring/low-hitting games and high-scoring/high-hitting games. So I also looked at the actual proportion of games with 'N' total bases or 'N' runs being scored. The results are below.

Looking first at Ramirez and Kemp's total bases one can see that in nearly 75% of games Ramirez and Kemp get 3 or fewer total bases. Looking at the Padres' runs scored one can see that they score 6 runs or fewer in over 80% of their games. Overall this slightly favors the Padres' runs scored since they score 0 to 2 runs in under 40% of their games while Ramirez and Kemp combine for 0 to 2 total bases in just over 50% of their games. The Dodgers' bullpen is tough with Broxton, Ohman, and Troncoso, but if the Padres can score just 4 runs off of McDonald I think they have a good chance of winning this.

The $40 Million Man Vs. That Slugger From The World Series Champions

For this prop I looked at three things. The Poisson distribution for Ryan Zimmerman and Chase Utley based on their total bases from each game played this season and last season, their actual proportion of games with 'N' total bases from those seasons, and a Poisson distribution based on their career statistics against the opposing pitcher. Those results can be seen in the clickable image below.

The first two graphs show that neither player is much more likely to record a small number of total bases, and that Utley has around a 1 in 20 chance of having a big game with 5 total bases. Zimmerman really has no chance of recording 5 or more total bases. Interestingly, Zimmerman had a double, or two singles, in just over a quarter of his games in the past two seasons. Utley is a good home run hitter, however, with 4 total bases in over 10% of his games. The stats that make me lean towards Zimmerman are the batter vs. pitcher stats. For the third graph I looked at each players' slugging average against the opposing pitcher and multiplied that by 4, as 4 is a high estimate on the average number of at bats per game. This 'average' was used to generate the Poisson distributions. In these one can see that Zimmerman is more likely to hit big off of Myers than Utley is off of Olsen. One home run by either player should wrap it up, so I choose Zimmerman with strong reservations. Good luck!

Will Billingsley Get More Strikeouts Than The Giants Get Hits?

Above is a graph showing the probability of Chad Billingsley recording a specific number of strikeouts, of giving up a certain number of hits, and of the Giants recording an exact number of total hits. If it were strikeouts versus the number of hits the Giants got off of Billingsley then Billingsley would be a good pick, but the Giants will get at least 1 and probably 2 or 3 innings to add on to their total hits. The Dodgers have a strong bullpen with a combined WHIP this season of 1.14, but that is still enough to allow two or three more hits for the Giants at the end of the game.

Rondo vs. Rose - Who Will Score More Points

Below is a pair of graphs showing the distribution of points one could expect in a typical game from Derrick Rose and Rajon Rondo. I used the data from games where Rose and Rondo played 35 minutes or more to try and reduce the effect of low-scoring, low-minute games. As usual, click on the graph to get a close-up view.

You can see that Rondo's average is only slightly higher than his overall season average and that is due solely to his 36 point overtime performance in Game 1. Rondo averaged quite a bit less in games where he played 35 minutes or more, during the regular season. Without Kevin Garnett in the lineup his numbers are very comparable to Rose's and his numbers against the Bulls were at that level whether or not Garnett played. Overall I would say Rose is the safer bet since one would be counting on Rondo to 'take over the game', essentially. The Celtics defense is terrific, but has had a diffficult time slowing up Rose so far. If you think Game2/Game 3 Rose is due to show then Rondo is a great pick. If Game1/Game4 Rose shows up then it's more of a toss-up and Rose could still win with Rondo deferring to his teammates.

Deron Williams Assists Vs. L.A. Lakers Margin Of Victory

Below is a series of graphs, which you may click on to get a closer view, which show the probabilities of Deron Williams getting a certain number of assists. The first graph shows the number of games this season, including the playoffs, in which Williams recorded 'N' number of assists. The second graph shows the probability of Williams recording a certain number of assists and the third graph shows the percentage of games played Williams is expected to record 'N' assists or fewer. These graphs were made using a discrete Poisson distribution and Williams' average number of assists per game over 72 games played.

Williams had 7 of 72 games this year with 15 or more assists, and just over 80% of his games he can be expected to record 13 or fewer assists. Unless the Jazz keep this game close and lose by 10 or less Williams has a poor shot at winning this prop.

Youkilis and Jeter Probabilities From This Season

Above are cumulative probability distribution functions and probability mass distribution functions for Kevin Youkilis' and Derek Jeter's combined runs, hits, and RBIs. The functions were computed using the data available from the 17 games they have played already this season. Click on the image to see a closer view. Essentially Youkilis has recorded more hits, runs, and RBIs is a larger proportion of his games, but if each player records a lower number, such as 2 or fewer, then Jeter has a greater probability of recording the higher number. With Masterson and Pettite recording WHIPS over 1.90 last season against the opposition and the bats hitting heavy lately for both teams the high end numbers favoring Youkilis are more likely.