March 29th, 2009 Picks

Mired in the depths of the 1-3-0 day I knew I was lucky just to win one. My first pick was Bart Bryant to have the lower front 9 score, going against my coin which had failed me the two days previous. Bryant started out with two bogeys and was down two strokes going into the third hole. Amazingly Bryant holed out from 140 yards for an eagle while Lehman two putted from three feet for a double bogey putting Bryant up two strokes. Bryant bombed from there hitting into the water on the 6th and double bogeying that double dog leg. The round was tied after that but Lehman birdied the 8th hole and Bryant parred out to lose 38 strokes to 37.

My next pick was the home favorite, Wales. They were dominant in midfield in the first half spending most of their time in the danger zone of the Finns. Their attack was stalled, however, as they failed to take aggressive shots. Most of their attacks ended with pass after pass eventually being stolen by the Finnish defenders. In the 45th minute Hennessey made a huge blunder and left the net to try and reach a ball before Johansson could reach it. He was unable to and Johansson booted a shot which was partially deflected but still had enough juice to reach the net. Finland went into the half up 1-0. In the second half Finland rode that momentum and fairly outplayed the Welshmen. Finland tacked on a second goal in the 90th minute to wrap the game up, winning 2 to nil.

My third pick was the over in the Missouri/UCONN game. The first half went well with UCONN shooting 70% from the field and the teams combining for 82 points. They came out dull in the second half as the defenses began to wear on each other. Both teams shot under 30% for a good portion of the second half and it was just under seven and half minutes remaining before the first three pointer of the half was made. Missouri kept the game close and Matt Lawrence made a three with 45 seconds remaining to encourage the Tigers to keep fouling. Kemba Walker played amazing and made some incredible shots down the stretch for the Huskies. UCONN made their free throws and the two teams ended up scoring 157. Final score: UCONN 82, Missouri 75.

My final pick of the day was Ottawa over Atlanta. I had changed my pick away from Atlanta based on the information that Kari Lehtonen had been injured in their previous game against the New York Rangers on Thursday night. His replacement, Johan Hedberg, had some poor stats in 28 games this season. He gave up three goals and saved only 85% of Ottawa’s shots, but it was more than enough as Atlanta won 6-3. The key for Atlanta was a 2:58 period in the 2nd in which they scored three goals. Down 5-2 Ottawa was unable to mount a comeback and only hurt their chances in the third as they allowed frustration to mount resulting in penalties and power plays for the Thrashers. So on to the slim pickin’s!

1) Tiger Woods’ 4th Round Score: 68 or lower vs. 69 or higher – 69 or higher
2) Michigan State vs. Louisville – 140 points or more
3) Chivas USA vs. FC Dallas – Chivas USA win or draw
4) Oklahoma vs. North Carolina – 164 points or more
5) San Antonio Spurs vs. New Orleans Hornets – San Antonio

I’m really not sure about the OK/UNC o/u but the MSU/L’ville over seems pretty solid, though as we all know a poor shooting night can ruin an over. Good luck tomorrow everybody!!

Analysis
1) When I posted 68 or lower last night the weather report for Bay Hill had the sun coming out and the winds calming down to 10-15mph by the time of Tiger Woods’ round. Now the weather report says “WINDY”. Difficult pin placements on the green for the final round are normal. Tiger has hit a 66 and a 76 the last two years at Bay Hill since it went to a par 70 for the Tour.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

2) Louisville have Williams, Clark, Sosa, Smith, McGee. Five players who can shoot the three ball competently. I’m a little concerned about how much production Michigan State can expect from Kalin Lucas with Louisville’s defense seeming to specialize in shutting down guards. Raymay Morgan suffered a broken nose in the game against Kansas and will be wearing a non-fitted mask for protection against Kansas. Goran Suton, however, should be able to score 20 again on Samardo Samuels. Michigan State will need players like Draymond Green and Travis Walton to step up here. Based on their combined adjusted points rating I would give this a 70% chance of going over.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

4) Based on the two teams’ adjusted points ratings this one has just under a 55 percent chance of going over. Gonzaga and North Carolina went over 163 easily and I did not see much in Oklahoma’s defense to make me think they would do any better than Gonzaga against North Carolina. Oklahoma’s offense, on the other hand, is terrific with Willie Warren, Austin Johnson, Taylor Griffin, and obviously Blake Griffin.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

5) San Antonio is 22-13 on the road and New Orleans is 26-11 at home. The Hornets are on a two game losing streak and are 3-2 at home recently. The Spurs are on a three game winning streak an dare 3-2 on the road recently. Ginobili is playing again for the Spurs, while Peja Stojakovic is still out for New Orleans. Tyson Chandler (ankle) is also out for the Hornets tonight. James Posey (elbow) will certainly miss the game tonight now as he’s been suspended by the NBA for throwing a ball at a referee on Friday. Hilton Armstrong will start for Chandler even though he also has an ankle injury. The line for this game has moved from “pick ’em” to the Spurs being a 1.5 point favorite.
Confidence: W4 streak or less