Odds On Most Any Matchup: 5dimesSkyBetBetFairBetUS

And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Thursday, April 30, 2009

Manny, Matt... I am your Padre.

Here I made a couple of graphs, one for Ramirez and Kemp's total bases and one for the Padres' runs scored. I looked at their average total bases and runs scored over the past 182 games to build a Poisson distribution. The Poisson distribution does a good job at predicting the probabilities near the average but underestimates low-scoring/low-hitting games and high-scoring/high-hitting games. So I also looked at the actual proportion of games with 'N' total bases or 'N' runs being scored. The results are below.

Looking first at Ramirez and Kemp's total bases one can see that in nearly 75% of games Ramirez and Kemp get 3 or fewer total bases. Looking at the Padres' runs scored one can see that they score 6 runs or fewer in over 80% of their games. Overall this slightly favors the Padres' runs scored since they score 0 to 2 runs in under 40% of their games while Ramirez and Kemp combine for 0 to 2 total bases in just over 50% of their games. The Dodgers' bullpen is tough with Broxton, Ohman, and Troncoso, but if the Padres can score just 4 runs off of McDonald I think they have a good chance of winning this.

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