September 9, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Lost my meager three game streak yesterday on that European Basketball Championship over/under but did manage to get back a couple wins with Marin Cilic defeating Andy Murray and the Yankees walking off with Nick Swisher's second home run of the game. I can already tell those two soccer matches are trying to trick me into losing my streak while attempting to get two picks in for the price of one. By lucky charms I'll have some sort of winning streak come 7pm. And so on to the picks.

Picks
1) Belgium @ Armenia - 2 goals or fewer
2) Poland vs. Turkey - 156 points or more
3) Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh
4) St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers - 26 hits+runs+errors or fewer
5) Netherlands @ Scotland - Netherlands win
6) Novak Djokovic vs. Fernando Verdasco - 40 games or more played
7) Melanie Oudin vs. Caroline Wozniacki - Wozniacki wins 2-0
8) Cliff Lee's strikeouts vs. Washington Nationals' Hits Off Lee - Nationals hits off Lee
9) Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees - Rays win or lose by 1
10) United States @ Trinidad & Tobago - Trinidad & Tobago win, tie, or lose by 1
11) Detroit Shock @ Minnesota Lynx - Minnesota
12) Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros - Houston
13) Roger Federer vs. Robin Soderling - Federer loses 13 games or fewer
14) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Arizona
15) Who Will Score More Runs In Innings 4 Through 6 (Dodgers @ Diamondbacks) - Arizona

Previews
1) I like 2 goals or fewer since Belgium defeated Armenia 2-0 in Belgium and now they're on the road so I would expect them to either win 1-0, 2-0, or draw 1-1, or lose 1-0. The only 3 goal or plus scoreline I see having a chance of occurring here is a 2-1 Belgium win. The odds at Skybet have under at -137.5 (8/11) and the over at even odds (+100).

3) The Cubs are 30-40 on the road while Pittsburgh is 36-33 at home. Carlos Zambrano is a pretty solid pitcher, but his ERA is only 4.60 in day games this season compared to 3.17 in night games. Kevin Hart has given up 3 or more earned runs in all 6 of his starts since being acquired by Pittsburgh from the Cubs. He has also made it out of the 6^th inning three times. Chicago actually looks like a decent pick here, I just don't like their losing record on the road.

Click image for larger view.

8) Looking at the graph on the right one sees Cliff Lee has been causing NL teams to strike out more often relative to their season average than AL teams. The red line represents strikeouts in relation to season average while the black line represents hits per strikeout in that particular game. Whenever the black line is over the red line it represents a loss in the context of this prop. Wins are when the red line is over the black line. One can then see that overall Lee is 8-17 with one push so far this season and has lost three in a row after dominating the NL for four games after being traded to Philadelphia. The Nationals are at the top of the bottom third of MLB in terms of plate appearances per strikeout though at 5.27; they also average 4.33 plate appearances per hit, which is poor overall. The Angels lead the MLB in plate apperances per hit with one every 3.91 while the worst team is San Diego with one every 4.69 plate appearances, so Washington's 4.33 is closer to the bottom. Cliff Lee could dominate Washington and win the prop 4 to 3, but I think Washington will get at least 6 hits and strike out no more than 6 times.