July 21st, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Today was a sparse day for the picks and I went along with the suggestion going 1-0-0 with the Atlanta Braves. Tomorrow looks like things are picking up a bit and I'm sure by Thursday we'll have a dozen or more to choose from. After a 12-4-0 day yesterday it was nice to stay above .500 though not by much. So let's get on to the picks then.

Recaps

Rookie Hanson Remains Unbeaten As Braves Beat Up On Giants Pen

Atlanta Braves 11 - 3 San Francisco Giants

Sanchez and Hanson took an inning or two to settle down but once they did it was 1-2-3 through both ends of the innings.

``Hanson struck out 11 to remain unbeaten, Chipper Jones hit a two-run homer, and the Atlanta Braves beat the San Francisco Giants 11-3 on Monday night in Jonathan Sanchez's first start since his no-hitter. Matt Diaz had a tiebreaking two-run triple in Atlanta's six-run seventh inning, helping the Braves snap a five-game skid against San Francisco. Sanchez struck out eight over six solid innings in his first game since his gem against San Diego on July 10. He gave up three runs and four hits. Sergio Romo (2-1) replaced Sanchez and failed to record an out, allowing four runs and four hits. Casey Kotchman had an RBI single after Diaz tripled, and pinch-hitter Ryan Church greeted Justin Miller with a two-run homer. Brian McCann added a run-scoring single."

Read More....Box ScorePhotos

Picks
1) Nationality Of Tour de France Stage 16 Winner: French, Italian, or Spanish vs. Other - French, Italian, or Spanish
2) Spain U19 vs. Turkey U19 - Turkey U19 win or draw
3) Indiana Fever @ Washington Mystics - Washington
4) San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves - San Francisco
5) Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers - Detroit
6) D.C. United @ Rochester Rhinos - D.C. United win by 2 goals or more
7) St. Louis Cardinals @ Houston Astros - Houston
8) Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago White Sox - Tampa Bay
9) Houston Dynamo @ Seattle Sounders F.C. - Seattle Sounders F.C. advance
10) Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics - Minnesota
11) Result Of Manny Ramirez's Second At Bat: Hit, Walk, Or Strikeout vs. Any Other Result - Hit, walk, or strikeout
12) Inter Milan @ Chelsea - Chelsea win

Previews

Stage 16 elevation profile (inset: final 5km).

1) Looking at the elevaton profile for this stage one can see this stage is going to the king of the mountains. Clicking on `climber' next to the polka-dot jersey in the standings one can see that Franco Pellizotti is currently king of the mountains and that 14 of the top 15 cyclists in the mountain climbing points standings are Spanish, Italian, or French.

Tour de France - Stage 16 - Odds
Rider	Nation	Odds
Contador	Spain	6/1
Pellizotti	Italy	8/1
Kirchen	Luxembourg	9/1
Sanchez	Spain	11/1
Nibali	Italy	12/1
Velits	Slovakia	14/1
Evans	Australia	14/1
A. Schleck	Luxembourg	16/1
Menchov	Russian	18/1
10 other riders with worse than 20/1 and better than 30/1 odds, 3 of 10 from Spain, Italy, or France

To the left is a list of the riders given better than 20/1 odds at SkyBet. Only four of those nine riders are from Spain, Italy, or France but all four are in the top 25 in the climber points standings. Only Andy Schleck and Cadel Evans from the other nations are in the top 25. Essentially the 'favorites' to perform well in a mountain stage are from Spain, Italy, and France but a strong showing by another rider like Andy Schleck could steal this particular stage win. Any other nation is a mild underdog in this case. Considering only the odds on these nine riders the odds are -120 for the winner being from France, Italy, or Spain and +120 for the other nations.

11) Manny Ramirez passed Mickey Mantle for 15^th all-time in home runs last night with number 537 in his second at bat of the night. That's a good omen if you're betting on Manny to hit, strikeout, or walk in his second at bat in tonight's game. In his other three plate appearances Manny struck out once, hit a single, and flied out to right field. Over the course of the season Ramirez has managed to hit, walk, or strikeout in 61.5% of his plate appearances ([47H+33BB+27SO]/174PA). Tonight he'll more than likely be facing Cincinnati starter Homer Bailey by the time he gets up to bat for the second time. In five starts this season, spanning just 28 innings, Bailey has walked, struck out, or given up hits to 48.4% of his batters faced, so on his side of the equation this is more of a tossup.

Homer Bailey may look goofy on his delivery but it still may be enough to strike out Manny Ramirez.

Where I think we see that Bailey is better than 50% likely to give up a hit, strike out, or walk Manny is in his platoon splits. First off, whether facing right or left handed batters his BB/9 is at or above 6.0, a number most starters can't survive. When it comes to striking batters out he's also at 6.0, but the bulk of those strikeouts are coming against right handers with a K/9 of nearly 9.0. Clicking on batting average on balls in play (BABIP) shows he tends to give up more hits to right handers when they make contact with the ball as well. Ramirez is a right handed batters. For Manny his strikeout rate, walk rate, slugging percentage, and batting average are all greater against right handed pitchers such as Homer Bailey. Overall Manny is going to hit, walk, or strikeout more often than not and Bailey is going to give up a hit, walk, or strike out a right hander like Manny more often than not. Obviously with a one-play-prop like this anything can happen but the 'any other' result is less than likely.

July 20th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Suh-weet, 2-0-0 today with Boo Weekley and the women's softball team limiting their slaughter of Australia to 8 runs. Of course, the day I determine to keep from going pick-happy is the day I couldn't miss. Ya better believe I'll be hoping for just one tomorrow. And on to the picks.

Recaps

Tom Watson Misses Clincher And Bows Out To Cink In Playoff

Front 9 Scores: Boo Weekley 35, Angel Cabrera 36

Boo Weekley got his game under control and managed to avoid bogeying three out of the last four holes on the front 9 as he did in the third round. Angel Cabrera wasn't too bad himself, he just couldn't manage the one birdie that separated his score from Weekley's. Of course, with the and draw option Cabrera would have needed two birdies on a front 9 that was killing the field.

Tourney Wrap Up & NewsLeaderboardHighlightsPhotos

United States Advances To Championship Game With Eight Run Mercy Win

United States 8 - 0 Australia (in 5)

This one could have easily been even worse for the Aussies. I think it was the third inning the US had runners on second and third with one out so Australia opted to intentionally walk the bases loaded. Unfortunately the Australian pitcher hit the next batter to walk in a run and then threw four balls to walk in another. Australia went with an 18 year old rookie who then gave up a grand slam to make it 7-0. 10 runs or under looked bad when the same rookie pitcher found herself in the same situation, bases loaded with one out. This time, however, she induced an inning ending double play and from there it was smooth sailing!

``Ashley Hansen clubbed a grand slam and Jennie Finch threw a two-hit shutout as the U.S. advanced to the World Cup of Softball championship game with a 8-0 win against Australia on Sunday."

Read more....Box Score

Picks
1) Halmstad BK @ Malmö FF - Halmstad BK win or draw
2) San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves - Atlanta
3) Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies - Chicago
4) Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago White Sox - Chicago
5) Will Australia Score Any Runs (USA vs. Australia): No, they are shutout vs. Yes, they score - No, shutout
6) Florida Marlins @ San Diego Padres - San Diego
7) Joey Votto vs. Manny Ramirez - Ramirez records more total bases

Previews

Proportion of games with 'N' total bases. Click image for timeline of total bases by game for each player since Manny's return and larger view of both graphs.

7) Joey Votto (.588 slugging in 216 at bats) and Manny Ramirez (.622 slugging in 135 at bats) would be two of the slugging leaders in the Majors if they had the minimum number of at bats required. Looking at the graph on the right one sees that Votto has had enough at bats to have developed a relatively normal looking total bases curve. It is a bit unusual for him to have more games with zero at bats than any other number, most players have a few more games with singles. Votto has a large number of games with 3 or more total bases, however, so that games when he does hit he tends to get more than one hit, including an extra base hit. Manny Ramirez's curve still looks rather jagged as he's only played in 40 games this season. Assuming his curve will tend to normalize he is going to have more games with at least one hit than not, but will have quite a few lone singles games (i.e. 1 total base). Overall this graph tells me Ramirez is more likely to get one total base and that Votto is more likely to get one or zero total bases.
Clicking on the graph one can see the total bases each player has gotten in each game played since Manny returned from suspension. One sees that both players have been very productive and have tended to alternate games with 4-plus total bases and games with 0 or 1 total base. Votto has had 4, 0, 0, and 2 total bases in his last four games while Ramirez has had 1, 0, 2, and 0 total bases. This graph here suggests both players are due for a home run, or a couple of doubles. I think Manny Ramirez is just a bit more due, however, especially playing at his home park.
Finally, I think the pitching matchup favors Manny Ramirez to get a big hit and rack up the total bases. Jason Schmidt is returning to the lineup for the Dodgers after sitting out most of the past two seasons with a shoulder injury. He's been pitching in AAA with the Albuquerque Isotopes for the past month and a half and has done semi-decent, racking up a 4.18 ERA in 32¹/₃ innings with a 1.30 WHIP. That's fairly comparable to Micah Owings' 4.94 ERA and 1.58 WHIP earned in the major leagues. Where I favor Schmidt to do a better job pitching is in terms of HR/9. Before Schmidt was injured he gave up quite a few home runs, but he was far more likely to concede one to a right handed batter, while Joey Votto bats left. That was in 2007, but he had given up 3 home runs in his AAA rehab stint so one might assume he's not pitching lobs to the plate. Micah Owings also gives up more home runs to right handers, which is the side of the plate Manny Ramirez bats from. The Dodgers' bullpen should be able to limit Votto far more than the Reds' bullpen can limit Ramirez as well.