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Recaps
Picks
1) Iraq vs. Spain (How Many Goals Will Fernando Torres Score?): 0 or 1 vs. 2 or more - 0 or 1
2) Uzbekistan @ Bahrain - Bahrain win
3) North Korea @ Saudi Arabia - Saudi Arabia win
4) New Zealand vs. South Africa - 3 goals or more
5) How Many Strikeouts Will Tim Lincecum Have Against The Angels: 7 or fewer vs. 8 or more - 8 or more
6) Arkansas vs. Virginia - Virginia
7) Milwaukee Brewers @ Cleveland Indians - Milwaukee
8) Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto
9) Lance Berkman vs. Ian Kinsler - Kinsler records more total bases
10) Detroit Tigers @ St. Louis Cardinals - Detroit
11) Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres - San Diego
12) DC United @ Seattle Sounders FC - Seattle win
Previews
1) Fernando Torres set an all-time record for the Spanish national team for fastest hat trick when he scored three goals in an 11 minute span, all before 17', in La Furia Roja's 5 to nil defeat of New Zealand on Sunday. With a victory over Iraq Spain can ensure they advance past the Group stage of the Confederation Cup. Spain know they will not be able to romp over every opponent as they did the
Certainly, the Lions of Mesopotamia will not go down without as much of a fight as they can muster. Although they are currently ranked only 7th in the Asian Confederation the Iraqi squad continues to surprise and achieve positive results with Bora Multinovic at the helm. Multinovic is leading his eighth national team with Iraq and has achieved more success with the talent he has had to work with than possibly any other manager in modern football. He knows they have a monumental task ahead of them but has admitted he will play ``negative football" in order to achieve the result. With Kassid in goal and a 9 or 10 men back strategy Spain could find things crowded and difficult when they move forward for the score. Even then, it would seem Spain would only be limited to a convincing win rather than an overwhelming and thorough thrashing.
With the top notch quality in this competition there is a good deal of media coverage which you may sample by clicking here. Looking at the table below one can see Spain's most recent nine results. Spain have outscored their opponents 29 to 2 in those nine qualifying, Cup, and friendly matches and Fernando Torres has scored 5 of those goals. I would expect players like David Villa and Xabi Alonso to enter into the scoring fray after the recent outburst by Torres. After all, some of them have money riding on Villa.| Fernando Torres Int'l Results | |
| Spain | |
| Opponent | Torres |
| New Zealand (5:0) | 3 |
| Azerbaijan (6:0) | 1 |
| Turkey (2:1) | 0 |
| Turkey (1:0) | 0 |
| England (2:0) | 0 |
| Chile (3:0) | 1 |
| Belgium (2:1) | 0 |
| Estonia (3:0) | 0 |
| Armenia (4:0) | 0 |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina (1:0) | 0 |
| Overall (29:2) | 5 |
| All scores reported as (Spain:Opponent) | |
Fernando Torres now holds the Spanish record for fastest hat trick at 11 minutes.
“I will be happy if we play much more negative against Spain (than against South Africa) and we get a point."
---Iraq coach Bora Milutinovic
Incidentally, SkyBet is offering odds on Torres' goal scoring. One may quadruple a bet on him scoring 2 goals (+300) and triskadecatuple a bet on his scoring 3 (+1200).
 Uzbekistan will have to do without Dynamo Kiev striker Maksim Shatskikh in their last gasp effort in Bahrain. |
 Bahrain only need avoid losing by more than one to enter into the World Cup qualification playoff. |
Now they must travel to the small island nation to face Bahrain in Manama on the brink of elimination. Unfortunately for the Uzbeks their star striker, Maksim Shatskikh, has been ruled out due to injury. Worse still, Bahrain will be at full strength and have proven to be a nuisance to the best Asian teams even with major injury concerns. Most importantly for the Bahraini side will be the return of striker A'ala Hubail who missed out on their 0-2 defeat away at Australia. Also returning for Bahrain will be defenders Abdulla Al Marzooqi, Mohammed Hubail (younger brother of A’Ala), striker Ismail Abdullatif and midfielder Mahmood Abdulrahman. This information and more can be found in goal.com's preview, which predicts a 1-1 draw between these sides.
Looking at the table below it would appear Bahrain have been in stronger form more recently, but Uzbekistan has played the tougher schedule. Still, Bahrain has achieved their results while riddled with injuries and I think Bahrain is the stronger side. The main concern for Bahrain will be a let down in play with their main concern being to avoid defeat by 2 goals or more. If they see the match as preparation for the qualification playoff and play up to their potential they should win fairly easily.
| Recent Form/Results | |
| Bahrain | Uzbekistan |
| #72 Uzbekistan (0:1) | #74 Bahrain (0:1) |
| #35 Japan (1:0) | #87 Qatar (4:0) |
| #96 Qatar (1:0) | #32 Australia (2:0) |
| #126 Jordan (4:0) | #33 Bosnia (0:0) |
| #29 Australia (2:0) | #31 Japan (0:1) |
| All scores reported in (home:away) format | |
 With new found success under Jose Peseiro Saudi Arabia remain hopeful they can win against North Korea. |
 With a two goal lead on differential North Korea need only secure a draw in Riyadh to clinch a place in the World Cup. |
Saudi Arabia's campaign started out with the Green Falcons earning only 4 points from their first four matches which included a loss at home to South Korea and a loss away at North Korea. Since then they have installed 49-year old Portuguese international Jose Peseiro in the manager's role. Under his guidance they have earned another 7 points from their last three matches and now find themselves with the opportunity to book their place to South Africa at home in Riyadh. They will have to do it without Abdoh (knee) and Ahmed (suspension) Ateef who have appeared in 13 and 10 of their qualifying matches, respectively. Their loss will be tempered by the return of striker Yasser Al Qahtani who is capable of single-handedly turning the tide of this match.
North Korea will be at full strength and will provide a difficult challenge for the Saudis and with the knowledge that a draw will send them through to the World Cup will be able to play without near the pressure facing the Green Falcons.SkyBet has odds on this match at -160 for Saudi Arabia to win, the draw at +250, and a North Korean win at +400. With Qahtani healthy and playing in top form and with Peseiro at the helm the Saudis have a good chance to win this game. North Korea will be playing staunchly knowing they can take the draw. I think the 110º temperatures will favor the Saudi Arabians, though not nearly as much as most people would believe. As long as Saudi Arabia can remain calm and avoid giving up a goal through counter attack I think they can pull off the desired result with a 1-0 win.
| Recent Form/Results | |
| Saudi Arabia | North Korea |
| #46 South Korea (0:0) | #52 Iran (0:0) |
| #122 U.A.E. (3:2) | #45 South Korea (1:0) |
| #42 Iran (1:2) | #116 U.A.E. (2:0) |
| #119 North Korea (1:0) | #55 Saudi Arabia (1:0) |
| #94 Oman (6:5) | #48 Iran (2:1) |
| Scores reported as (home:away)/only non-friendlies included | |
(top) Lincecum's strikeouts by game.(bottom) Lincecum's strikeouts/batter faced vs. Opponent's strikeouts/plate appearance over season.
Tim Lincecum is a blur even to the cameras.
The Los Angeles Angels average 6.2 strikeouts per game, but that includes their strikeouts against relief pitchers. In 6 innings then they may only strikeout an average of 4.1 times per game which would translate to 7.4 strikeouts for Lincecum. 7 innings would come out to 8.7 strikeouts. There are a number of ways to look at the stats, but they all agree on Lincecum getting anywhere from 7 to 10 or more strikeouts in an average 6 or 7 inning day. Throw in that Matt Palmer will be batting for the Angels and I feel 8 strikeouts is a fairly safe number. One might ask: ``What if Palmer can bat?", but a look at his minor league numbers should allay this fears. In 2008 and 2009 Palmer had 67 at bats, striking out 28 times and getting 6 hits and has been a sub-.200 batter for most of his career. Of course, all this is moot once the game begins as what will be, will be, but I'm thinking he will be very good today.
*To compute Lincecum's strikeout rate from a team's baseline rate simply take their plate appearances per strikeout and divide by Lincecum's batters faced per strikeout for that game.
8) Today will continue the tale of two pitchers whose seasons have charted opposing courses since the first day of April. Scott Richmond started out with a 2.67 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 4-0 record on hiw way to winning the NL Rookie of the Month award for April. Since that time he has 5.06 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and an 0-3 record. Philadelphia's 46 year old left hander Jamie Moyer has seen a change a bit more drastic. In his last five starts he has a 3.77 ERA and 1.10, which has only been good enough to bring his ERA to 6.11 with a 1.49 WHIP on the season.
Will Richmond and Moyer exchange fortunes or remain on their current course?
That Scott Richmond's record went from 4-0 to 0-3 with increases of only 0.09 in WHIP and 1.29 in ERA speaks more to a problem in Toronto's batting over the past month than with Richmond's pitching. Fortunately for Richmond the Blue Jays may have found power in their bats in the nick of time. Aside from scoring 5 runs in the 10th inning against Philadelphia yesterday the Blue Jays are batting .241 with a .398 slugging average in their past three games. Those numbers don't sound impressive, and they aren't, but it's still 1.68 total bases per hit, an improvement over their season average. If Toronto can continue to bat those dingers against Moyer it will give Richmond a great opportunity to pick up a win.
A seemingly strong factor in favor of Philadelphia in this game is Moyer's record against Toronto. In his extensive career Moyer is 14-8 with a 5.27 ERA against the Blue Jays over his career, but this is no flock of Common Loon's he's facing. Against the most recent iteration of the Blue Jays Moyer has a .364 bat against average with Toronto's lineup slugging .596 in 151 at bats. At 29 years old Richmond is at or possibly a year past his prime, while Moyer passed his over a decade ago. That Moyer has been pitching so well for nearly a month leads me to believe he's just waiting for the `right' team to bat around with. I think Toronto could be that team. The best chance for Philadelphia will be their offense, which has been batting just over .300 and slugging just under .500 in their past three games. They have been laying off the extra base hits in that time and while they are unlikely to bat .300 in this game they are more than likely to go long. Whether they will be able to get men on base ahead of those shots will play a big factor in determining if they can keep up with Toronto. With a 3.2 BB/9 ratio I favor Richmond to avoid recklessly populating the bases and without those multi-run homers I favor Toronto to keep the lead after 6.
9) Check out the graph below. Kinsler has a slew of games with more total bases than Berkman's had all season. Ortiz's DICE (defense independent component pitching) is worse than his actual ERA this season which is generally a good indicator that the pitcher will have a poor start at some point. Kinsler won't have a monster game, but a home run and a single are not out of the question.
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