April 30th, 2009 Picks

2-2-0 yesterday, though it was nice to finish on a two game upswing. My first pick was the Baltimore Orioles. They took an early lead in the 1^st inning as Loux gave up two singles and walked a third batter to load the bases. Adam Huff hit a sacrifice fly to score one run and the Angels got out of the inning down 1-0. Uehara was putting the start on a fine game with 5 strikeouts and no walks, while allowing 2 hits in the first three innings before an Izturis single and RBI triple by Morales evened the score at 1-1. The two teams continued to duel through the sixth inning as Uehara neared his 100^th pitch. The Orioles scored the winning runs in the top of the 7^th as Hunter and Morales lead off with solo pops to make the score 3-1. The Orioles came back with an RBI single by Markakis in the bottom of the 8th but Fuentes was equal to their efforts and held on for the 3-2 win. The Orioles wasted two opportunities given by Moeller hitting deep for a double and a triple in this game and Uehara earned his second loss of the season.

My next pick was the Chicago Cubs. Doug Davis and Ryan Dempster were near opposites in this game. Dempster gave up 5 runs on 6 hits while walking 3 batters and striking out 4. Davis pitched a full 7 innings and allowed zero runs and only two hits, while striking out 7 batters and walking 3. The game moved out of reach in the 7^th inning when Arizona scored 5 runs; two runs being walked in by Marmol and a 3 RBI double by Upton given up by Samardzjia. The final score was Arizona 10, Chicago Cubs 0.

My third pick was Ryan Zimmerman to record more total bases. Zimmerman grounded into a double play in the 1^st inning while Utley struck out. In the 3^rd inning Zimmerman came up to bat with the bases loaded and was walked to tie the game at 1-1. Utley grounded out in his next two at bats while Zimmerman hit a lead off double in the top of the 6^th inning. Zimmerman fouled out and flied out in his last two at bats and Utley was walked in his final at bat. Zimmerman finished with 2 total baes to 0 for Utley and the Nationals won the game 4-1.

My final pick was 197 points or fewer in the Nuggets/Hornets game. The pace was good for 198 points or more until the final 5 minutes of the first half when the teams combined for 12 points. A 4 minute period in the third quarter with 8 points combined being scored kept the score low, and it was mainly a flurry of three pointers by J.R. Smith that kept 198 points within reach. Down the stretch Denver built up a 20 point lead and with 90 seconds remaining the starters came out of the game. Denver kept playing defense but the offenses of both teams were reduced to three point shooting. Denver advanced to the second round with a 107-86 win over the Hornets. So, I suppose it’s on to the picks.

1) Angel Cabrera vs. Retief Goosen – Goosen cards a lower front 9 score
2) Shakhtar Donetsk @ Dynamo Kiev – Shakhtar Donetsk win or draw
3) Anthony Kim vs. Phil Mickelson – Kim cards a lower first round score
4) Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers – Texas
5) Hamburg SV @ Werder Bremen – Werder Bremen win
6) Boston Celtics @ Chicago Bulls – Chicago
7) Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays – Boston
8) Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers – Arizona
9) Chicago Blackhawks @ Vancouver Canucks – Vancouver
10) Portland Trail Blazers @ Houston Rockets – 181 points or more
11) San Diego Padres vs. M. Ramirez and M. Kemp – Padres total runs

The money line ‘dog in Vegas has been the straight up winner for the last 9 MLB matchups on here. I’m not kidding. Good luck youses!

Analysis
1) This is only the seventh year this event has been on the Tour, where it was known as the Wachovia Championship. The course has undergone many changes over the years and some of the new changes are discussed in this hole-by-hole tour of the course. The greens are sharply sloped and the fairways are lined with trees making driving accuracy a necessity, unlike on other courses where the rough is the main hazard off the fairway. Angel Cabrera has a putting average of 1.787, driving accuracy of 49.6%, and a scoring average of 70.21. He also averages 3.67 birdies per round. Retief Goosen has a putting average of 1.793, driving accuracy of 61.5%, and a scoring average of 70.51. He averages 3.08 birdies per round. Cabrera has played this event once, carding front 9 scores of -3, +1, -1, and +8. Goosen has played twice, in 2007 and 2006, and carded -2 twice, -1 three times, even par once, and +1 and +2 once each. Remember, driving accuracy is just the number of fairways hit off the tee with a driver so it has no bearing on how badly each player may hook or slice. This is a very even matchup if one tosses out Cabreras final round 44 on the front 9 here last year.

2) Dynamo Kiev are 12 points clear of 2nd place Shakhtar Donetsk in the Ukrainian Premier League. They have completely dominated that league. Both sides have impressive results in the Group stage of Champions League this year, with Shakhtar Donetsk drawing Inter Milan 1-1 at San Siro and Dynamo Kiev defeating FC Porto 1-0 at Estadio do Dragao. Dynamo Kiev have never been shutout in 22 home matches this season while Shakhtar Donetsk have been shutout in 8 away matches. Dynamo Kiev have scored 2 or more goals in 8 of 22 home matches while Shakhtar Donetsk have scored 2 or more goals in 14 of 22 away matches. Neither side has allowed any more than 2 goals to be scored in those 22 matches as well. I like Shakhtar Donetsk’s defense to keep Dynamo Kiev from scoring more than 2 and their counter attack to keep the score level.

4) Vicente Padilla is pitching for the Texas Rangers and Dallas Braden for the Oakland Athletics. The pitching matchup favors the A’s but Braden may have a difficult time finding support from his batters. Nomar Garciaparra and Ellis are out for the Athletics and Jason Giambi is probable, but may still be shrugging off the effects of injury. The A’s have a much stronger bullpen who have a combnied WHIP of 1.10 and ERA of 2.64 while Texas’ bullpen has a combined WHIP of 1.78 and 6.52 ERA. It may not be enough for Oakland, however. In 41 at bats the Rangers’ batters, minus the injured Hamilton, have a combined batting average of .341 and slugging average of .512 against Braden.

5) Werder Bremen have played two away matches against Hamburg SV, one a 2-1 loss and the other a 1-1 draw. Now they are playing at home. Hamburg SV are 1-0-3 (W-D-L) in their last 4 away matches, losing to Borussia Dortmund, Manchester City, and VfB Stuttgart. They have been outscored 6-3 in those 4 matches. Werder Bremen are 4-0-0 in their last 4 home matches, defeating VfB Stuttgart, Hannover 96, Udinese, and VfL Bochum. They have outscored their opposition 14-4 in those four matches. Werder Bremen have scored 3 or more goals in 10 of 21 home matches. A 2-1 win for Werder Bremen is most likely with a 1-1 draw being the next most likely result.

7) Josh Beckett has struggled a bit to start this season. His 6.00 ERA and 1.63 WHIP are off from last season’s 4.03 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He’s also a long ways off from last seasons 5:1 SO:BB ratio. Aside from one relatively poor outing against the Yankees, a 16-11 Red Sox win, Beckett has a 3.60 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 20 innings pitched. Garza is having a fairly good season and has done well against the Red Sox who have a career batting average of .216 against Garza. The Rays have a career batting average of .210 against Beckett to go along with a .262 on-base percentage, though. Garza has put Red Sox batters on base at a .368 rate. Overall the Red Sox have a much stronger bullpen and that could be the difference here. Kevin Youkilis and J.D. Drew may miss this game, however, so it would be prudent to check out the game day lineups beforehand.

11) Ramirez and Kemp get 0 or 1 total base each in over 50% of their games. They average a combined 4 total bases per game owing to the 8 or more total bases each has gotten two or three times in the past 182 games. The Padres score at least 3 runs 6 out of 10 times so they’re not a great offensive power, but they only need a few runs to be in good position to win this one. Here’s the breakdown of the Padres’ runs scored and Manny and Kemp’s total bases in each game in this season and last season.