Odds On Most Any Matchup: 5dimesSkyBetBetFairBetUS

And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Wednesday, April 29, 2009

The $40 Million Man Vs. That Slugger From The World Series Champions

For this prop I looked at three things. The Poisson distribution for Ryan Zimmerman and Chase Utley based on their total bases from each game played this season and last season, their actual proportion of games with 'N' total bases from those seasons, and a Poisson distribution based on their career statistics against the opposing pitcher. Those results can be seen in the clickable image below.

The first two graphs show that neither player is much more likely to record a small number of total bases, and that Utley has around a 1 in 20 chance of having a big game with 5 total bases. Zimmerman really has no chance of recording 5 or more total bases. Interestingly, Zimmerman had a double, or two singles, in just over a quarter of his games in the past two seasons. Utley is a good home run hitter, however, with 4 total bases in over 10% of his games. The stats that make me lean towards Zimmerman are the batter vs. pitcher stats. For the third graph I looked at each players' slugging average against the opposing pitcher and multiplied that by 4, as 4 is a high estimate on the average number of at bats per game. This 'average' was used to generate the Poisson distributions. In these one can see that Zimmerman is more likely to hit big off of Myers than Utley is off of Olsen. One home run by either player should wrap it up, so I choose Zimmerman with strong reservations. Good luck!


  1. Here's a topic I'd like your input on:

    At what point while building a streak do you stop picking the next available pick and become more selective?

    Having a 2 game streak obviously won't cut it...but what if you're working on like a 10 or 11 game streak? You figure you need to get to say 20-25 to win the month in any given month. So do you just focus and take the most 'lock' type picks...or do you just keep your fingers crossed?

  2. Oh man, this is a topic I keep switching sides on. On the one hand I'd think one would need a great deal of luck to get a streak up to 15 or 20, right? So why not just go for it and press your luck, if you've got it you'll win and if not you'll lose and no biggie because it's only a small streak.

    On the other hand look at the Streak 7 leaders. They pretty much just take one pick per day, and sometimes less. It seems like to build a serious streak you need to focus and take only the picks you think are a 'lock', the ones you feel strongly about.

    I was about to let my W1 streak ride after Zimmerman won, but then I read your comment and now I'm going for 2 with the under in the Denver game. *laugh* Well, whichever technique you use you'll need some luck. With the 'pick 'em all' strategy you just need a bit more.

    Of course, if you're going for the monthly you need to pick all of them and get 2 to 3 right every day. A little over 2.5 wins/day would win the past 3 monthly prizes