Rondo vs. Rose - Who Will Score More Points

Below is a pair of graphs showing the distribution of points one could expect in a typical game from Derrick Rose and Rajon Rondo. I used the data from games where Rose and Rondo played 35 minutes or more to try and reduce the effect of low-scoring, low-minute games. As usual, click on the graph to get a close-up view.

You can see that Rondo's average is only slightly higher than his overall season average and that is due solely to his 36 point overtime performance in Game 1. Rondo averaged quite a bit less in games where he played 35 minutes or more, during the regular season. Without Kevin Garnett in the lineup his numbers are very comparable to Rose's and his numbers against the Bulls were at that level whether or not Garnett played. Overall I would say Rose is the safer bet since one would be counting on Rondo to 'take over the game', essentially. The Celtics defense is terrific, but has had a diffficult time slowing up Rose so far. If you think Game2/Game 3 Rose is due to show then Rondo is a great pick. If Game1/Game4 Rose shows up then it's more of a toss-up and Rose could still win with Rondo deferring to his teammates.