April 13th, 2009 Picks

0-2-1 today which is pretty terrible in my opinion when I had winners picked in my blog in 3 of the 4 time windows for the day. My first pick was Kevin Sutherland to card a lower front 9 score. Sutherland started his round off with a bogey to go behind Weir by a stroke but he promptly gained it back with a birdie on the second hole. The two remained all square until Sutherland lost another stroke with a bogey on the fifth hole. Weir birdied the par 3 sixth hole to take a two stroke lead with three holes remaining. Weir gave back a stroke on the next hole, a par 5, with a bogey. Sutherland was down a stroke on the last hole but managed to save a push with a birdie. Rory McIlroy was the only other golfer of the 50 competing to score a birdie on #9.

My next pick was Nick Watney to card a lower front 9. Watney and Ames each hit par for the course except for a birdie on #2 to put things all square through four holes. Ames hit a bogey on the par 4 fifth hole to go down a stroke. Watney kept that one stroke lead for one more hole until he put in one the worst finishes at Augusta on the front 9. Watney gave back his lead with a bogey on the seventh hole, went down a stroke with a bogey on the next hole and failed to save a push when Ames bogeyed the ninth hole when he bogeyed it himself. Watney was the only player to card three consecutive holes over par in the final round and only the third to do so after the cut.

My third and final pick was the Philadelphia Flyers. Henrik Lundqvist was a late decision to start with most sources stating Tellqvist would start as goalie. The Flyers still struck quickly scoring a goal in their first three shots. A puck over the glass penalty gave the Rangers a power play which they converted at the end. The Flyers converted their first power play but made one of the more dreaded mistakes when they not only failed to convert their next power play and gave up a short handed goal. The Flyers took an early lead in the second period but were unable to hold on as the Rangers scored two of their own in the first half of the final period. The Flyers ended up losing 4-3.

Other notable events: Johan Santana losing his first game started since last June despite recording a 0.00 ERA, and Kenny Perry bogeying the final two holes at the Masters to set up a playoff which Angel Cabrera won. And now on to the picks.

1) Ipswich Town @ Bristol City – Ipswich Town win or draw
2) Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers – Chicago
3) Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals – Philadelphia
4) New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays – New York
5) San Diego Padres @ New York Mets – New York
6) Orlando Magic @ Milwaukee Bucks – Milwaukee
7) St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks – St. Louis

Analysis
1) Wow, I just completely forgot to write something about this last night but with English Championship League soccer who really cares right? Ipswich and Bristol are 3 points removed in the tables. Ipswich have more away wins (8) than Bristol have home wins (7). Bristol are missing three key starting defenders. I generally say do not pick against the win/draw option unless the team with the win option is far far ahead in the standings.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

2) The Detroit Tigers are -120 favorites but the White Sox are only +110 underdogs. Road dogs have been doing fairly well so far in this young season, especially when they are heavy favorites to cover a 1.5 run spread. In this case Chicago is favored to cover at -180 to +160 for Detroit. Zach Miner had a 9.00 ERA last April and walked nearly as many batters as he struck out. He gives up hits and home runs at slightly higher rates to the White Sox batters than Gavin Floyd does to the Tigers’ batters. Gavin Floyd had a 3.16 ERA last April and a 3.68 ERA against Detroit. He has struck out three times as many of Detroit’s batters as he has walked.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

5) The Mets are -200 favorites in many casinos this morning and are even odds to cover the spread of 1.5 runs. Silva is new to the league this year and in his first game had only one strikeout compared to four walks, but gave up more than a few grounders leading to two double plays. Pelfrey had a strong finish to the season in 2008 but April has been one of his weaker months. His ERA against the Padres in 12²/₃ innings is 2.13 but the Padres have gotten 11 hits, including two home runs, in 31 at bats against Pelfrey.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

6) Orlando is without Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu for tonight’s game and Stan Van Gundy has been reported as saying he’ll be looking to limit Dwight Howard’s minutes with the season coming to an end and no chance for Orlando to move up or down in the seeding. Look for Marcin Gortat to pick up those minutes and for a slew of other players to get their first meaningful minutes of the season. Vegas casinos are not putting lines out on the NBA at this point in the season but the online oddsmakers have Milwaukee winning by anywhere from 3.5 to 5.5 points.
UPDATE: Vegas has opened books for this game with the spread at 3.5 points favoring Milwaukee
Confidence: W1 streak or less