Ragin' Rondo vs. The Rosenfeld Railroad (Part 2)

Above are the discrete Poisson distribution of points for Derrick Rose and Rajon Rondo. One can see that Rose has picked up his production in the playoffs by about 2 points to around 20 points per game. He scored 36 and 23 in the first two games, then was limited to 10, 9, and 14 points before scoring 28 in the Bulls' double overtime Game 6 victory. I think he'll be aggressive in Game 7, and with Hinrich, Ben Gordon, and even Brad Miller emerging as threats inside and out the Celtics will be forced to defend him one-on-one. I would expect at least 20 points from Rose, but also that the Celtics' physical defense will keep him from scoring more than 25.

Rajon Rondo averaged only 14 points per game this season when he played 35 minutes or more, but many of those games were with Kevin Garnett on the court. Without Garnett one can see that Rondo averaged closer to 19 points per game. In these playoffs Rondo has also increased his scoring a couple of points to 21 points per game. He's been very consistent in this series, scoring 19 to 28 points in the first five games before scoring only 8 in Game 6 while doling out 19 assists. He is the fastest player on the court and should be able to get shots, albeit tough ones, off at will from close range. The Celtics cannot expect Ray Allen and Paul Pierce to score so many points and win the game so I can see Rondo being aggressive and scoring 25 or more here.

Rondo vs. Rose - Who Will Score More Points

Below is a pair of graphs showing the distribution of points one could expect in a typical game from Derrick Rose and Rajon Rondo. I used the data from games where Rose and Rondo played 35 minutes or more to try and reduce the effect of low-scoring, low-minute games. As usual, click on the graph to get a close-up view.

You can see that Rondo's average is only slightly higher than his overall season average and that is due solely to his 36 point overtime performance in Game 1. Rondo averaged quite a bit less in games where he played 35 minutes or more, during the regular season. Without Kevin Garnett in the lineup his numbers are very comparable to Rose's and his numbers against the Bulls were at that level whether or not Garnett played. Overall I would say Rose is the safer bet since one would be counting on Rondo to 'take over the game', essentially. The Celtics defense is terrific, but has had a diffficult time slowing up Rose so far. If you think Game2/Game 3 Rose is due to show then Rondo is a great pick. If Game1/Game4 Rose shows up then it's more of a toss-up and Rose could still win with Rondo deferring to his teammates.