May 30th, 2009 Picks

2-1-0 today. Though the Dodgers lost my 5 game streak I got back two with the Blue Jays and Giants. I really wish the Azarenka match had not been pushed so far back it had to be suspended due to darkness. I would have taken that pick over the Dodgers any day.

Chicago Cubs 2 - 1 Los Angeles Dodgers

Chad Billingsley and Chris Lilly both had terrific starts in this game as the score was level 0-0 after 6 innings. Matt Kemp hit a home run in the top of the 7^th but the Cubs got the run back and one more in the bottom of the inning. The scoring stopped there and the Cubs took this game of the series 201.

Toronto Blue Jays 6 - 3 Boston Red Sox

The Toronto Blue Jays kept pace with the Red Sox for the first four innings then posted 5 runs on Tim Wakefield in the bottom of the 5^th. It would prove to be enough as they held on 6-3.

San Francisco Giants 4 - 2 St. Louis Cardinals

Joel Piniero walked his eighth batter of the season in the first inning and gave up two runs from two hits to put St. Louis in a hole early. San Francisco added two more runs in the fourth inning, Piniero's last of the game. The Cardinals' bullpen performed admirably but Matt Cain proved too much for St. Louis and the Giants went on to win 4-2. So on to the picks!

1) Corey Pavin vs. Bo Van Pelt – Pavin cards a greater or equal number of birdies
2) Gefle IF @ Trelleborgs FF – Trelleborgs FF win
3) Georgia vs. Missouri – Georgia
4) Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays – Toronto
5) Joey Logano vs. Jason Leffler – Logano has a better finishing position
6) Arizona vs. Alabama – Arizona
7) Holes Under Par Carded By Steve Stricker: 6 or fewer vs. 7 or more – 6 or fewer
8) Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays – Tampa Bay
9) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs – Chicago
10) Michigan vs. Georgia - Michigan
11) Houston Astros @ Pittsburgh Pirates – Houston
12) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Detroit Red WIngs – Pittsburgh
13) San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies – San Diego
14) Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic – Cleveland
15) Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
16) Arizona State vs. Alabama - Alabama

Analysis
1) Corey Pavin is a 49 year old golfer who was one of the top 10 in the world in the late 80's through the late 90's whose last Tour win came in 2006. This year he has failed to make the cut in 9 of the 13 tournaments he's participated in and has only made $154,000 to date.

Pavin celebrates after sinking a putt.

He is currently tied with Bo Van Pelt at one under par through the second round, 13 strokes behind the leader. Van Pelt has had a much better Tour this year, though not great by any means, making the cut in 9 of 13 events, and earning $598,000 from 2 top 10 finishes in them.

In terms of success at this event Pavin still outpaces Van Pelt whose best finish in the past five years was 5^th place in 2004. Pavin has three top 10 finishes at Colonial Country Club, 6^th in 2005, 3^rd in 2006 and 2^nd in 2008, a year in which Van Pelt finished tied for 70^th place. Each player has carded the same number of birdies (five) so far, but Van Pelt has three of those on the front nine, while Pavin has only one birdie on the first nine holes.

Based on the number of holes hit over and under par the front 9 is the more difficult half of the course, with holes 5, 3, and 4 being the most difficult of the course and holes 9, 8, and 7 rounding out the top 10 most difficult holes. Based on their performances on this more difficult side of the course so far this year neither player seems likely to card more than three birdies in the third round, especially considering the increase in difficulty that comes with new pin placements and tee arrangements. Looking at their stats one sees Van Pelt has a birdie average 0.81 better than Pavin so far this year, which is an average of about 1 extra birdie every other 9 holes played. It's a fairly large difference, given tour averages range from around 3.00 to 4.50, but not much over the course of 9 holes. I think neither player will hit birdie that often, but with Pavin being the more successful of the two on the course in recent times I actually like his chances to card more birdies straight up, with the draw being insurance. Previews of the holes can be found here.

<<--~~==¦Follow their round on ShotTracker¦==~~-->>

8) After wrapping up a road trip at cursed Progressive Field where the Rays have lost 16 in a row to the Indians Tampa Bay got back on course with a 5-3 win at home over the Minnesota Twins. Tampa Bay will be starting David Price to try and take game two today, with all the expectations in the world staked on his performance.

David Price gets another chance to prove himself as a starter. Will he make the most of it?

Price was a terrific reliever for the Rays last season and in the playoffs, but the starting rotations struggles has seen him be called up to take on that role as well. In his first start of the year Price lasted all of 3¹/₃ innings. Although he gave up only 2 earned runs it took him 100 pitches to record 10 outs as he walked 5 batters and struck out 6. He will need to work on throwing more strikes in this game as the Twins, with power hitters Mauer, Cuddyer, Morneau, and others, could make the damage too great for Tampa Bay to overcome should he place men on base.

Minnesota will counter with Francisco Liriano, a 25 year old left hander who is still looking for a return to form two years after surgery. He has been up and down all season, alternating shut down performances with `where'd-the-strike-zone-go?' outings. His last twoMIN 5 - 6 BOS(L)
MIN 4 - 7 CWS(L) starts have seen him unable to control his pitches, something both he and his manager agree needs to be worked on.

I think Liriano will find that control, for this game at least, and be able to keep Tampa Bay from scoring more than 3 runs in 6 innings. He's generally followed poor outings with strong ones and I expect it to be the case here. Tampa Bay and Minnesota are both hitting around their average in the past three games so one side or the other could have a breakout performance, but I can see this being more a day for the pitchers. The x-factor will be David Price who is less tested in the starters' role. He has the talent to be a terrific starter, but he needs to work more on throwing strikes if his stuff is going to keep players from putting the ball in play and getting out. If he can last more than 4 innings without giving up too many runs then Tampa Bay will have a chance. Overall, I think Tampa Bay will play strong at home and Minnesota will struggle a bit more at the plate. Of course, with these teams' bullpens anything could happen.

13) The San Diego Padres attempt to get back to their winning ways against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field today. The Padres were 9-1 in their last 10 games before losing 3-0 yesterday to the Rockies.

Jason Hammel will try to keep the Friars of San Diego from belting out doubles all day long.

Colorado, currently 4.5 games back from San Diego and sitting at the bottom of the NL West, is just hoping to pick up wins where they can. With their bats providing little support recently (they are batting .198 and slugging .308 in their last three games) they will rely on Jason Hammel to have a superb outing today. Unfortunately for Colorado Hammel has not had much success home at Coors Field. On the road Hammel has an ERA of 1.64, but in the wide open spaces of Coors Field he has posted a 7.63 ERA in four career starts. ``I've looked at video, both on the road and at home,... Honestly, leaving pitches up is basically what's hurting me." Hammel is coming off a terrific outing against the Tigers in Detroit, but against the Padres things could be rough once again. San Diego are batting only .236 as a team this season they have a decent power rating, with 1.64 total bases per hit though they certainly failed to display that in their shut out yesterday. Hammel faced San Diego at Coors on April 27^th earlier this season and had a difficult time, giving up 4 earned runs from 7 hits in only 3 innings.

Colorado have had their own troubles at the plate recently, batting .198 and slugging .308 in their last three games while scoring only 10 runs. San Diego will hope Josh Geer can compound those probelms. Geer, who has recorded a 4.91 ERA along with a very nice 1.21 WHIP in 6 starts this season, is also coming off a nice start limiting the Cubs to 1 earned run in 6²/₃ innings. Neither pitcher has shown much consistency this season, however, so I would not be surprised to see both teams break free of their hitting troubles tonight.

Overall, I think Hammel will continue his struggles at Coors park, not only because of its hitters nature, but also because of the defensive outfield put out by the Rockies. Hammel has conceded 7 unearned runs in 37¹/₃ innings this season with the Rockies being a bit more error prone than the average team. They are also still recovering from a roster build up which included slugging bats, but did not take into account the speed required to defend a park like Coors Field. I think the Padres are better suited for it and as long as their bats wake up I think they will be able to outpace the Rockies in an offensive battle. Having Cliff Floyd return to the lineup won't hurt with that either. Considering the Padres' bullpen, which has contributed to San Diego winning a league leading 12 games decided by one run, has better numbers overall and in fielding independent statistics I have to give San Diego the advantage in a close game.