April 28th, 2009 Picks

1-0-0 today as my baby streak entered the terrible twos and keeps yelling at me that “No!” it does not want to turn 3. Hopefully you checked here prior to 6:30pm or so when I changed away from Anaheim, Boston, and Colorado. My one and only pick for the day was L.A. Lakers winning margin. The game started out tightly contested with the Jazz forcing quite a few turnovers and knocking down shots. The first quarter ended with the score knotted at 26. The Lakers put some distance between them in the second quarter and went up by 13 while Deron Williams recorded 6 assists.

The third quarter had the Lakers extending their lead to 23 and Williams failing to get a single assist before being subbed out for Ronnie Price. This prop was put to bed… or so it seemed. At some point in the fourth quarter Price and Paul Millsap decided to up the intensity to ‘11’ and keyed a comeback by the Jazz that forced Jackson to put his starters back in the game. At one point the Lakers’ lead was down to 6 points and after a turnover Price and Williams ran down the court, with Price bouncing the ball to Deron. Williams missed the layup and from there the Lakers held on to win by 11 points. Williams did not record a single assist in the second half and finished the game with 6, easiliy in his bottom 10% of games this season. So on to the picks.

Oh yea, and 121-63?

1) Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. Simone Bolelli – Bolelli
2) Chelsea @ Barcelona – Barcelona win
3) Derrick Rose vs. Rajon Rondo – Rondo pts.
4) New York Rangers (lose by 1 or win) @ Washington Capitals (win by 2 plus) – Washington
5) New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers – Detroit
6) Florida Marlins @ New York Mets – New York
7) Carolina Hurricanes @ New Jersey Devils – New Jersey
8) Tampa Bay Rays @ Minnesota Twins – Minnesota
9) Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox – Seattle
10) Spurs (vs. Mavericks) vs. Trail Blazers (vs. Rockets) – Trail Blazers win margin
11) Chad Billingsley vs. San Francisco Giants – Giants total hits

Analysis
1) Philipp Kohlschreiber has more experience on the ATP Tour and is currently ranked 39th. Simone Bolelli is a relative newcomer and is ranked 41st. Bolelli has won four Challengers and Futures events on clay courts, but Kohlschreiber has won an ATP event on clay, in April of 2007. Just this year Bolelli played Rafael Nadal and won the first set, before losing the second set and the third set in a tiebreak. In their only previous meeting Bolelli defeated Kohlschreiber in straight sets, 6-4 6-3. You can read more about Kohlschreiber by clicking here and about Bolelli by clicking here. Their head-to-head comparison can be found here and you can click on each players’ name to see their career stats and playing histories.

2) Chelsea visit the Nou Camp to take on Barcelona in the first leg of the Champions League semi-finals. Barcelona are without defender Gabriel Milito who has been injured for a long while. Chelsea are without defenders Ashley Cole and Paulo Ferreira, which will force much of their backfield to play in unfamiliar positions as they attempt to stop Messi, Eto’o, and Henry. European sportsbooks have Barcelona at -167 while a Chelsea win is +450 and the draw is +260. Against a team like Barcelona the absence of Cole will be felt. I think Barcelona win 3-1 or 3-2, but a 2-2 draw is also a well favored result.

3) This is an interesting prop as Derrick Rose has been the more consistent of the two in scoring over 15 points during , while Rondo has been the more consistent during the series. Here are their distributions for games in which they played 35 minutes or more. One can see that Rose has a clear advantage. In games where Kevin Garnett has not played or in games against the Bulls, however, Rondo actually has a bit better odds. This should be very close unless one player or the other breaks out and scores 25 or more points. I think Rose has shown he can play poorly in this series, while Rondo has been nearly unstoppable for the Bulls. I give the advantage to Rondo based on that, but it should be within 5 points.

6) Ricky Nolasco and Livan Hernandez are starting for the Florida Marlins and New York Mets, respectively. Neither has gotten off to a good start this season with Nolasco recording a 6.86 ERA in 21 innings to go with a 1.67 WHIP and Hernandez pitching 16 innings to the tune of a 7.31 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. Last year Nolasco had a 3.52 ERA and 1.10 WHIP so he will be looking to return to that form tonight. The Mets have done well off of Nolasco in the past, however, with a career batting average of .351 and slugging average of .573. The Marlins have also batted well against Hernandez. Of the two Nolasco is more likely to pitch a good game and give the Marlins the lead. He will need help from the offense which has been hard to come by lately. In their last three games the Marlins are batting .178 and slugging .267. I think both teams will improve their batting numbers in this game, and the Marlins might take a small lead in a high scoring game, but their weak bullpen (5.16 ERA and 1.62 WHIP) will allow the Mets to win in the end.

9) Felix Hernandez for the Mariners faces off against John Danks for the White Sox in the second game of a doubleheader tonight. Hernandez is one of the best young pitchers, if not the best, in the major leagues. After a rocky start with a twisted ankle he’s pitched 13 innings while allowing only 1 run and 11 hits and striking out 13 batters to 4 walks. The White Sox have done well against Hernandez in the past, especially when he hasn’t been fully healthy. Last year he had a 9.00 ERA and 2.80 WHIP against the Sox. In 57 at bats the White Sox have batted .368 and slugged .825! John Danks has gotten off to a stellar start, pitching 19 innings and recording an ERA of 0.95 and WHIP of 0.84. The Mariners have done well against Danks in the past, however, batting over .300 in 59 at bats. This is supposed to be a pitchers’ duel but I think there be more than a few runs scored by each team. I think the Mariners have the stronger bullpen with Aardsma, White, and Kelly while the only top performers for the White Sox have been Linebrink and Jenks. If Aardsma, White, and Kelly do not pitch in the first game they should be able to carry the Marlins through in the second. It might also be a good idea to see who have the hot bats in the first game.

11) Since this involves the Giants’ total hits for the entire game rather than just off of Billingsley I have to give them the advantage here. Billingsley should be good for 5 to 9 strikeouts, but the Giants average 8 hits per game. If Billingsley pitches any less than his absolute best the Giants should outpace his strikeouts and then run away with the prop when the bullpens come in. I can see Billingsley having more strikeouts by the time he is relieved and the Giants then getting enough hits to push or win the prop by one at the end. Here are some probabilities to mull over while making your choice.