March 26th, 2009 Picks

Back to a 1-2-0 day. It started out with CASHPOINT SC Rheindorf Altach managing their first draw of the season on the road against Kapfenberg SV. Kapfenberg scored early in the second half to go up 1-0 but then gave up a goal 16 minutes later. Kapfenberg created more and better scoring opportunities but could not capitalize. SC Rheindorf Altach made a wicked goal from the left side of the box, the guy had his back to the goal but still managed to whip it into the upper right corner. End result, 1-1 draw.

I then took Notre Dame and they did a good job shooting their three pointers. Notre Dame advanced to the NIT semi-finals with a 77-67 victory over Kentucky. Kentucky only had 10 turnovers in the game but Notre Dame improved on their #1 ranking for fewest turnovers per game by having only 6. Jodie Meeks had a nice outing with 21 points on 6 for 10 shooting but Luke Harangody was the difference as he went for 30 points and 11 rebounds. Kentucky never really threatened in the second half with Notre Dame leading by at least 5 after the break.

My last pick was St. Mary’s over SDSU. It was a blowout right from the start as the Aztecs took a 15-0 lead. Patty Mills shot 7 for 24 from the field and made a few huge mistakes at the end that prevented the Gaels from tying SDSU or taking the lead. Billy White had a great game for SDSU scoring 17 points on 8 for 12 shooting. The Aztecs played strong defense, keeping St. Mary’s below 40 percent shooting for the night. St. Mary’s never fully recovered from the first five minutes of the game and San Diego State advances with a 70-66 win. So on to the picks.

1) Charles Howell III vs. Pat Perez – Howell III cards a lower front 9 score
2) Tiger Woods’ First Round Score: 68 or under vs. 69 or over – 68 or under
3) Calgary Flames @ Columbus Blue Jackets – Columbus
4) Connecticut win margin vs. Pittsburgh win margin – Connecticut win margin
5) Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls – Chicago
6) Vancouver Canucks @ St. Louis Blues – St. Louis
7) Villanova vs. Duke – Duke
8) Edmonton Oilers @ Phoenix Coyotes – Edmonton

Analysis
1) Analysis. I’m a bit lax on the use of that word here. I flipped a coin and it ended up heads so I picked Howell III. It’s a mere coincidence that of the five tournaments he and Perez have both played Perez has never shot a lower score on the front 9. Howell has gone lower 3 times and they tied twice.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

2) It’s a par 70, 2 under isn’t much. Woods shot 1 under, 2 under, 4 under, and 4 under at the Transitions Open last week. He’s slowly getting better and I think there’s a good chance he can continue to progress in this tournament.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

4) Connecticut handed Texas A&M a 26 point loss, while Pittsburgh only pulled away from Oklahoma State near the end to win by 8. The Aggies and Cowboys were each 9-7 in Big 12 play and split their two games over the regular season. Now Pittsburgh is playing another team who can shoot the three point shot with Xavier going at a 39.9% clip. To top it off Xavier is bigger and more physical than Oklahoma State, with a +8.4 rebounding margin compared to Oklahoma State’s -1.1 margin. Connecticut will have size on Purdue, with advantages in rebounding margin, adjusted points, and three more blocks per game. Purdue shoots and makes more three pointers, but I expect them to be outmatched by Connecticut while Xavier will give Pittsburgh a good game.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

7) Duke and Villanova match up very closely statistically. Villanova’s biggest advantage is in field goal percentage defense where they limit opponents to 40.6% from the field compared to Duke’s opponents who have shot 43.4%. Villanova also has an advantage in rebounding margin. Duke forces more turnovers than Villanova and have a higher adjusted points rating, mainly due to Villanova having nearly two extra empty possessions. Duke will need to force those turnovers to win in a close game and have great shooting nights from Singler, Scheyer, and Henderson. Villanova has a mob of great athletes that gives them the advantage in my opinion, but Duke is a two point favorite in Vegas. That, along with the advantage in blocks, steals, and adjusted points leads me to believe Duke should win a very, very close game.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

8) Edmonton is a -130 favorite on the road and Phoenix is a +110 underdog. Edmonton is 3-0-0 against Phoenix this season. Dwayne Roloson has a 2.75 goals against average with 91.6 SV% for the Oilers. Ilya Bryzgalov has a 2.92 GAA with a 90.9 SV%. The Oilers are 3-1-1 in their last 5 road games and Phoenix is 2-2-1 in their last 5 home games. Phoenix’s two home wins recently were against San Jose and Vancouver so they are dangerous, but the trends and the odds say to go with Edmonton here.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

March 25th, 2009 Picks

2-1-0 day today. It started off shaky with Hereford scoring an early goal on Carlisle before 10 minutes had even gone by. The quickly upped their lead to two twenty minutes later. Carlisle got a goal in first half injury time to give hope to those who had picked them to win but the Hereford United defense remained strong and both sides went scoreless in the second half. Hereford United picked up their third away win in 20 matches. Then I went with Auburn on the three point prop. It was close most of the way through the game with 7 threes apiece down into the final three minutes. Auburn hit a couple of threes to cut into Baylor’s threes and Baylor made sure to take shots from the paint with the dwindling lead. Jerrell, Carter, and Dunn combined for 6 of Baylor’s 7 threes. Reed and Waller hit four threes and Rasheem Barrett stepped up big with 3 of 5 shooting from behind the arc. Baylor held on to win 74-72.

I’d like to apologize for the misinformation about Jonas Hiller playing for Anaheim against Nashville. Giguere played great and the game went to a shootout. The Predators missed their first two attempts before they forced Giguere to make some saves. Eventually Rinne let one through and Anaheim prevailed. My last pick was Williams and Boozer to score more points. The two duos were within three points of one another all the way. Deron hit a jumper with two minutes to go to put the Jazz duo up by 1. 30 seconds later Adelman conceded the game and took Artest and Yao off the court. Williams and Boozer outscored Ming and Artest 32 to 27 and the Jazz won 99-86. So for now we will go onward unto the picks.

1) SC Rheindorf Altach @ Kapfenberg SV – Kapfenberg SV win
2) Kentucky @ Notre Dame – Notre Dame
3) Calgary Flames @ Pittsburgh Penguins – Pittsburgh
4) Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic – Boston
5) San Jose Sharks @ Chicago Blackhawks – San Jose
6) Anaheim Ducks @ Colorado Avalanche – Anaheim
7) St. Mary’s @ San Diego State – St. Mary’s
8) Utah Jazz @ Phoenix Suns – Utah

Analysis
1) SC Rheindorf Altach is 1-11-0 (W-L-D) in away matches this season. Their single victory was against LASK Linz who have a minus 10 goal differential at home this season. Kapfenberg SV have a plus 2 goal differential. They’re not a very good team either, but are 6-5-2 at home. SC Rheindorf Altach have given up 42 goals in 12 away matches, 3.5 per match! They’ve only scored 13 goals in those 12 matches as well. Of course SC Rheindorf Altach could win or draw in this game, but since they never have drawn a match on the road and since they’ve won less than 10% of their matches on the road I’ll go with Kapfenberg SV.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

2) Notre Dame is at home against Kentucky tonight. The Wildcats should have an advantage on the boards though Zeller and Harangody should do well against a generally undersized Kentucky team. Against Creighton Kentucky had the biggest men on the court, but in this game Notre Dame will have that advantage so look for Meeks to have a bigger role over Patterson tonight. Kentucky is a good defensive team with their opponents shooting only 38.8% from the field compared to Notre Dame’s opponents who shoot 42.7%. Kentucky should also have the advantage in blocks and steals. Notre Dame will have to make their three pointers when Harangody is double teamed to maintain and extend a lead against Kentucky and they should with 39.6% shooting from beyond the arc this season. Kentucky averages an astounding 17.2 turnovers per game. Notre Dame averages 9.7 turnovers per game. So if Kentucky can play good defense, disrupting Notre Dame, and avoid turning the ball over constantly they have a good chance to win this game. If Notre Dame can manage to shoot 40% from the field, prevent Kentucky from scoring too many dunks and layups, and force even 12 turnovers they will almost assuredly win.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

7) Even as a Mountain West fan I, like most of America, have rarely seen San Diego State play. San Diego State is favored by 3.5 at home. St. Mary’s has a pretty sizable advantage in adjusted points and rebounding margin so I expect Samhan and Simpson to do well on the boards for the Gaels. San Diego State has more empty possessions than St. Mary’s and fewer total possessions on average. St. Mary’s gets more blocks, but San Diego State grabs more steals. San Diego State’s opponents shoot a lower percentage from the field and from three point range than St. Mary’s opponents. The Aztecs shoot the three ball at 34.7% compared to 33.6 percent for St. Mary’s. When San Diego State lost by 3 to St. Mary’s on a neutral court they shot 33.3% from the free throw line, yet are a 70% shooting team on the season, ergo St. Mary’s was lucky to have won that game. I have to give St. Mary’s the advantage based on offensive efficiency in the end, but if Kyle Spain is lighting things up San Diego State should win.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

8) Phoenix is on a five game winning streak following a six game losing streak, with two of those wins being against teams with a better than .500 record and all but one game being at home. The Utah Jazz are at full strength and have been playing well since the All-Star break with an NBA best 14-3 record. All three losses came on the road to Atlanta, Miami, and Orlando. Phoenix is without Leandro Barbosa for this game and Stoudemire is out for the season. Phoenix won at home against the Jazz by 2 earlier in the season. Carlos Boozer was out with injury for that game and Phoenix still had Raja Bell, Boris Diaw, Leandro Barbosa, and Amare Stoudemire. Phoenix has added Matt Barnes and Jason Richardson since then, but I don’t see them making up for the loss of Bell, Diaw, Barbosa, and Stoudemire. The Jazz are 14-20 on the road with 13 of those wins coming against sub-.500 teams. Phoenix is a 3 point favorite. I’ll be going with the better team here and give them a shot on the road now that they’re at full-strength.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

March 24th, 2009 Picks

An ugly 2-2-0 day though not bad considering my picks went below .500 for the day. The day started out nicely with FK Tom’ Tomsk scoring a goal in the first minute of their match against CSKA Moscow. They went into lockdown mode after that and managed to keep CSKA from finding the net for the rest of the game. Needless to say CSKA returned the favor and the match ended as a 1-0 win for FK Tom’ Tomsk. I then went with Kidderminster Harriers. The game was a 0-0 draw until the last moments of the game when Kidderminster scored a goal in injury time to seal the win.

I then took Nate Robinson. 6 for 22 shooting for the night. 1 for 7 on threes, including a miss that could have tied the game and sent it into overtime. Nate Robinson was very nearly the worst Knick on offense this night. Dwight Howard had a nice game scoring 13 in the first quarter, 7 in the second, 6 in the third, and 3 in the fourth. Robinson was down 20 to 5 at the half and never seriously threatened. My final pick was St. Mary’s over Davidson. It was a close game for the first half with Davidson making just enough threes and forcing just enough turnovers to keep it close. St. Mary’s then began to gradually draw away in the second half. Patty Mills, Omar Samhan, and Diamon Simpson were terrific. Curry had a good game for Davidson as well but he did not have enough from his supporting cast to lift Davidson to victory. St. Mary’s won the game 80-68. So then, on with the picks.

1) Hereford United @ Carlisle United – Carlisle United win
2) Baylor @ Auburn – Auburn scores more three pointers
3) Washington Capitals @ Toronto Maple Leafs – 7 goals or more
4) Anaheim Ducks @ Nashville Predators – Nashville
5) Detroit Pistons @ Chicago Bulls – Chicago
6) Vancouver Canucks @ Dallas Stars – Dallas
7) Penn State @ Florida – 141 points or fewer
8) Ron Artest and Yao Ming vs. Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams – Ming and Artest pts.

Analysis
1) Hereford United is 2-2-15 (W-D-L) on the road this season. Their wins and draws have come against Colchester United, Brighton, Cheltenham Town, and Walsall. So they have defeated or drawn against teams higher in the tables than Carlisle United but half of their wins and draws have come against other relegation squads. Carlisle United are 7-4-7 at home. They lost to Tranmere Rovers at home who are 7th in the tables and have a losing record on the road, 5-4-10. They also lost to Hartlepool United who are 4-3-12 on the road. Their 9 other losses and draws at home have come against squads with more wins/draws than losses. Carlisle United are dealing with a few injuries with Livesey, Bridge-Wilkinson, Horwood, and Murphy out. Thirlwell is likely to play. All of these players missed the match against Hereford United earlier this season which Hereford won 1-0. Injury information for Hereford United is more difficult to come by so for now I’ll assume they are at full strength. The current odds have a Carlisle win favored at 54%.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

2) Baylor makes 8.1 three pointers per game and Auburn makes 7.1 three pointers per game. Neither team is very big so one might expect them to shoot fewer threes and score inside, yet both teams tend to shoot at least nearly 20 threes even if the largest defender on the court is 6’9". Baylor shoots 36.2% on threes, while Auburn shoots 33.4%. Baylor has three deadly shooters in Tweety Carter, Lacedarius Dunn, and Curtis Jerrells. Auburn’s main threats are DeWayne Reed and Tay Waller. Both schools have at least three other players who can and do shoot threes, however. Auburn’s opponents shoot 32.9% on threes and Baylor’s opponents shoot 33.9%. Auburn’s opponents also shoot a lower percentage from the field and Auburn forces more turnovers than Baylor. I like Auburn here to defend the perimeter and frustrate Baylor’s offense. Of course this will come down to which team has the hot hands, but I think Auburn has a better chance of that with their defense.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

4) Nashville is a pretty big favorite at home (-140) and Pekka Rinne is a terrific goalie. Anaheim will be trying out Jonas Hiller in net against the Predators as GIguere has not done so well against them this year. Nashville is 2-0-1 against the Ducks with an overtime loss in Anaheim just 6 days ago. Nashville is coming off a shootout loss to San Jose and should be looking to return to the form that gave them an 8-0 win over Detroit, the Red Wings’ only scoreless game this season. Anaheim is 4-1-0 in their last 5 games with overtime wins at home over Nashville and Vancouver. This is probably one of the safer picks on the board tonight.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

7) This looks to be another close over/under that comes down to the last few possessions. A number of measures are pointing to 136 to 138 points being scored here. One made three and an extra free throw could put it over, however. Cornley, Penn State’s second leading scorer, is questionable for the game tonight and Talor Battle is probable to play with a minor hip injury that has not affected his scoring too much. Either way Penn State can be expected to score around 60 points, so Florida will need to have an 80 point game to put this one over. They can do it, having scored 80 or more in 19 of their 35 games. If you take this pick, good luck.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

8) Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer outscored Yao Ming and Ron Artest 46 to 44 in the one matchup this season where all four played. Over the past 10 games Ming and Artest have been averaging 38.1 points and Williams and Boozer have been averaging 31.5 points. That total is skewed for the Jazz players by Boozer returning from an injury which kept him out for over 40 games. Williams also had a couple of low scoring games in there. Okur, Collins, Millsap, or Boozer won’t be able to stop Yao from scoring, but he may have a poor shooting night on his own. The best hope for the Jazz men is for Kirilenko and Harpring to slow down Artest. Then they will need Boozer to play up to form and score 20 or more points. In the 11 games since he’s returned Boozer has scored 20 or more three times, with a high of 23 points. On the other hand, Yao Ming has only scored 20 or more four times in the past 11 games. Boozer and Williams could definitely win this but it seems a bit more likely for Artest and Ming to end up on top. Of course, I’ll be picking Williams and Boozer.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

March 23rd, 2009 Picks

Alright, finally got a perfect 5-0-0 day! Started off with Ajax Amsterdam who were able to take advantage of NAC Breda’s injuries in winning 3-0 on the road. Then I went with Syracuse. Arizona State played a pretty good game, but they just couldn’t stop Syracuse. Onuaku and Jackson in particular were able to score at will down low. Jonny Flynn had 11 points and 7 assists. Kuksiks and Abbott tried to keep ASU in the mix hitting 12 threes between them, but Devendorf and Rautins had an answer for nearly every one. Syracuse led by 9 or more for much of the game and ended up winning 78-67.

Then I took Xavier over Wisconsin. I have to admit Wisconsin looked pretty solid in the first half and for most of the second. Eventually, however, Wisconsin’s offense stalled and Xavier was able to run away down the stretch in a 60-49 win. I then took Michigan State, my ‘lock’ of the day. It was touch-and-go for a while. USC did a terrific job defending inside. Michigan State got plenty of offensive rebounds but they could not convert them into second chance points. Eventually they were just a play or two too good for USC in this game, winning 74-69. My final pick was Japan, who gave up a solo home run on the first at bat of the game. They came back however, and were able to outscore U.S.A. 9-4. So on to the picks.

1) FK Tom’ Tomsk @ CSKA Moscow – 3 goals or more
2) Kidderminster Harriers @ Wrexham – Kidderminster Harriers win or draw
3) Kentucky @ Creighton – Creighton
4) New Jersey Devils @ Philadelphia Flyers – Philadelphia
5) Carolina Hurricanes @ Florida Panthers – Florida
6) Dwight Howard pts. vs. Nate Robinson pts. – Robinson pts.
7) Stanford @ Wichita State – Stanford
8) Detroit Red Wings @ Calgary Flames – Calgary
9) Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns – Denver
10) Vermont @ Oregon State – Vermont
11) Korea vs. Japan – Korea
12) Davidson @ St. Mary’s – St. Mary’s

Well, after 30 NIT and NCAA games 23 winning teams have had a higher adjusted points rating, that’s over 75%. 20 have had the advantage in rebounding margin, 67%. 19 have had an advantage in steals and 17 have had an advantage in assist to turnover ratio, three point percentage, and empty possessions. 15 have had an advantage in blocks per game and three pointers made. Best of luck to everyone!

Analysis
1) Last season 3 or more goals were scored in 33% of CSKA Moscow’s home matches, and in 40% of FK Tom’ Tomsk’s away matches. Three of six of those overs for FK Tom’ Tomsk came in their first 4 away matches. Four of them came against teams in the top 6 table positions. Three of five of those overs for CSKA Moscow came against the bottom four teams in the tables. Currently the average odds are 55.5% favoring under 2.5 goals and 44.5% favoring over 2.5 goals. This is a real tossup with a lot favoring both sides and I just have a feeling CSKA Moscow has it in them to score 3 on their own.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

2) Wrexham have not been playing terrifically at home lately. In their past five games they have 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss. Their win was against Gray’s Athletic and the draws have been against such relegation squads as Northwich Victoria. Kidderminster Harriers haven’t been fantastic on the road lately either, with a loss to Barrow who lie below Wrexham. They do have an impressive victory against Torquay United, however. Wrexham are 5-2 at home with a halftime lead, 3-3 when it has been tied, and 1-3 when behind at the half. On the road Kidderminster are 3-0 with a half time lead, 4-3 when it has been tied, and 1-4 when behind at the half. As near as I can tell both squads are at or near full strength. I’ll go with Kidderminster to at least draw against Wrexham who have not had a win against a team above them in the tables since December.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

3) Creighton is a slight favorite at home here. The Bluejays average fewer empty possessions, have a slightly higher adjusted points rating, shoot better on three pointers, score more three pointers per game, have a better assist to turnover ratio, and get more steals per game. Kentucky has a much better rebounding margin and averages more blocks. So Creighton should win this game easily. Kentucky has a couple of 6’9" forwards, Patterson and Stevenson, that could mean big trouble for Creighton. Creighton have only a few bigs and will need big games out of them. The size of Kentucky will probably give Creighton’s small guards some problems. If Kentucky can score easily inside, get second chance points, and avoid too many turnovers they have a very good chance of winning this game. If Creighton is hitting threes and scoring off of turnovers, however, they should win in a close game.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

6) Nate Robinson has been averaging 23.7 points in his last 10 games compared to 20.9 points for Dwight Howard. Dwight Howard dominates in the paint most games, yet he doesn’t score tons of points. Many teams revert to fouling him and rely on his poor free throw shooting to keep him from scoring. Nate Robinson outscored Howard 32 to 24 the last time they played in New York, and 27 to 15 when they played in Orlando. Dwight Howard has scored 30+ points 7 times this season. Nate Robinson has scored 30+ points 7 times since February 1st. I like the player who has won the previous matchups and is more likely to blow up for big numbers.
Confidence: W6 streak or less

9) Denver is 1-1 against Phoenix this season, losing 101-108 at Phoenix and winning in overtime 119-113 at home. Amare Stoudemire and Leandro Barbosa played in both of those games and both will be out with injury for tonight. Shaq may have a good game, but Nene is as capable of a defender as anyone else in the league. In the game in Phoenix Shaq had 19 points, 9 rebounds, and 1 block. Nene had 20 points, 15 rebounds, and 2 blocks. Phoenix is a 3.5 point favorite at home. Denver is 18-17 on the road this season, which ties them for the 7th best road record in the NBA. Denver will keep Phoenix below their average points scored, but Denver will probably score more than average against a weak Suns defense.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

10) Oregon State defeated visiting Houston, a fairly good Conference USA team, 49-45. Their defense dominated as Houston was held to under 30% shooting for the game. Vermont will present more of a problem I think. Oregon State has a slight advantage in three pointers scored by a small margin. Vermont own advantages in all the other important statistical categories. They are a better shooting team than Houston so I think Oregon State will not be holding them under 50 points in this game. Vermont is a much better three point shooting team than Houston so I think they will make Oregon State pay for clogging the middle.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

11) I really know very little about baseball. Here, all I know is Japan is 2-2 against Korea in the WBC this year. Korea is 2-0 when Jung Bong starts on the mound, and he will be starting tonight.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

12) Davidson has quite a few advantages that would suggest they should win this game. First they have a small advantage in adjusted points. They also have an advantage in steals, assist to turnover ratio, three pointers made, and three point percentage. St. Mary’s has the advantage in having fewer empty possessions, more blocks, and in rebounding margin. Normally I would choose Davidson as the vast majority, 83.3 percent, of winners in the 30 games I’ve looked at have been at least tied in number of predictive categories they have an advantage in. Here I think St. Mary’s puts a dent in that 83 percent. Davidson has nobody to stop Omar Samhan and it will be a contest to see who gets in foul trouble first, Samhan or Lovedale. St. Mary’s can at least put more bigs in, Davidson cannot. Patty Mills should help neutralize Davidson’s advantage of having Stephen Curry. As long as St. Mary’s can avoid turning the ball over excessively, they should win.
Confidence: W8 streak or less

March 22nd, 2009 Picks

Man, another sub-.500 day after going over .500 on my picks in here. 1-3-0. I forgot they play in twosomes after the cut on the PGA Tour so I avoided picking de Jonge needlessly. He was fortunate to win by a stroke as Mediate bogeyed #8 and #9 to give up two strokes. Baylor started the day off right as they just out executed Virginia Tech. The Hokies couldn’t make a shot in the first half and Baylor just rolled. Baylor ended up winning 84-66. Then things started to go wrong. I definitely underestimated Villanova as a Big East school and they decimated UCLA, 89-69. UCLA could not get their offense flowing and were mercilessly outhustled for rebounds. Villanova shot the ball great, finishing with 46% field goal shooting.

Then it was on to Purdue vs. Washington. Washington started off cold and got themselves into a 12 point deficit, 20-8, with 10 minutes to go. Other than that first 10 minutes the Huskies played well and made a strong run. In the end, however, Brockman couldn’t tip in every miss Washington had. Isaiah Thomas led the team with 24 points, but he had to take 20 shots to do it. Washington shot 50% on their last six free throw attempts. Purdue also played a great game and only let Washington back into it after cooling off a few minutes into the second half.

The last game I picked was Gonzaga margin of victory. Texas stuck with Duke for nearly the entire game, but failed to successfully make a single clutch play in the final 90 seconds. They lost by 5. Gonzaga had a 7 point lead with 2 minutes to go but Orlando Mendez-Valdez helped make sure Western Kentucky would stay close. Gonzaga ended up winning by only two on a last second shot. Western Kentucky was more efficient on the offensive end than was Texas and that made all the difference. I hope you excuse this extra long intro, because it’s on to the picks.

1) Ajax Amsterdam @ NAC Breda – Ajax Amsterdam win
2) Siena @ Fiorentina – 2 goals or fewer
3) Arizona State vs. Syracuse – Syracuse
4) Philadelphia Flyers @ Pittsburgh Penguins – Pittsburgh
5) Miami Heat @ Detroit Pistons – Miami
6) South Africa vs. U.S.A., Australia, South Korea – U.S.A., Australia, South Korea
7) Carl Edwards vs. Jeff Gordon – Edwards has a better finsihing position
8) Wisconsin vs. Xavier – Xavier
9) Cleveland State vs. Arizona – Cleveland State
10) Marquette vs. Missouri – Missouri
11) USC vs. Michigan State – Michigan State
12) United States vs. Japan – Japan
13) Colorado Avalanche @ San Jose Sharks – 6 goals or more

22 NCAA/NIT games I’ve looked at and adjusted points has been on the side of 15 winners, 14 have had an advantage in steals, 13 have had the rebounding margin on their side, and 12 have had a better assist/turnover ratio, 3P, turnover margin, and/or fewer empty possessions. Also, I may have just sealed the Spartans’ fate vs. the Trojans. Whenever I’ve put a wickedly high confidence rating on a game that pick has been wrong. Fair warning, and great luck for advancement for streak!

Analysis
1) Ajax Amsterdam and NAC Breda are both dealing with a large number of injuries. Vertonghen is a big part of Ajax Amsterdam along with Gabri in midfield. They have been dealing well without one or the other or both lately. NAC Breda are missing a few more core players with Penders, Elshot, Mtiliga, Tamerus, van der Leegte, de Graaf, and Reuser out. All of these players have started for NAC Breda in midfield or on defense. They played without any of them and picked up a 3-0 victory on the road over Vitesse Arnhem, but lost to Feyenoord Rotterdam at home in the match before that. They’ve been playing well at home, but have yet to win at home with all these injury concerns.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

2) Fiorentina have gone over 6 out of 13 home matches and Siena have gone over 5 of 14 away matches. That means 59.3% of their matches have gone under. The under is favored on most any betting line, though not by much on some. Siena have gone under in 80% of their matches with teams who concede as few goals as Fiorentina. Fiorentina have gone under in 25% of their matches with teams who give up as many goals as Siena. Siena concede 1.36 goals on average in away matches. Fiorentina concede 0.77 goals on average in home matches. That’s 2.13 goals against combined. Their combined goals scored on average is 2.25. Either way it looks like two or less goals, but one never knows if that third will bounce off the post or not.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

3) This is another potentially close game, along with Cleveland State/Arizona. Arizona State has an advantage in turnover margin and assist to turnover ratio. They’ll need to take care of the ball and force more turnovers than they give up to have a shot at winning. They also have an advantage in three point shooting. Syracuse’s advantages are in fewer empty possessions, adjusted points, steals, and rebounding margin. I think Syracuse will capitalize on rebounding and do well with their big men scoring inside. Their physical presence will have to disrupt Arizona State’s offensive flow to take away their advantages in A/T and turnover margin. I think Syracuse can do these things and the Sun Devils will find themselves making too many mistakes to win.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

5) Wade is ailing a bit for Miami, but he will play. Rasheed Wallace and Allen Iverson will be out for Detroit and there’s a good chance Rip Hamilton will miss the game to rest his groin for a game. Add in that Jermaine O’Neal seems to have rediscovered his offensive game and I think Miami wins here.
Confidence: W6 streak or less

6) This prop is asking what the nationality of the Transitions Open will be. Tom Lehman (U.S.A.) leads Retief Goosen (S.Africa) by one stroke. The next closest competitors are three strokes back and include two Americans, an Australian, and a South African. The next closest South African is Brendan De Jonge, 10 strokes back. So basically it’s Goosen and Immelman vs. Rest of Field. Considering how difficult the course has been it’s really just Lehman vs. Goosen unless they both hit over par. So this is a real tossup and I’ll go with the guy with the one stroke handicap.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

9) At first I was thinking Cleveland State had outdone themselves in beating Wake Forest and Arizona should take this matchup. Cleveland State has fewer empty possessions, more steals, and a better turnover margin. Arizona has a better adjusted points rating, greater rebounding margin, and three point shooting. I like Cleveland State’s defense, however, and after Washington’s performance I’m not impressed by a PAC-10 team out rebounding their opposition. That means overall I have to give the advantage to the Vikings here.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

11) Michigan State has the number one rebounding margin in the nation, and they did it playing in the Big 10. USC is probably going to get murdered on second chance points in this game. Michigan State also holds advantages in adjusted points, turnover margin, three point shooting, and assist to turnover ratio. USC has been more efficient with fewer empty possessions on average this season.
Confidence: W20 streak or less

12) It’s Japan, the defending World Baseball Classic champions. For some reason the sports books have this game as even or U.S.A. as a slight favorite. I really think Japan controls this game, but I have not the baseball insight to say why.
Confidence: W9 streak or less

March 21st, 2009 Picks

Man, 1-4-0 today, the beatings continue. Started out with Immelman hitting zero birdies and one bogey, while Watney shot a cooool 2 under for the front nine. Then I went against my initial instinct and switched my pick to Tennessee. I didn’t get to see any of the game but looks like Oklahoma State was in the lead for most of the game. Then I got my single win of the day on the Dayton/West Virginia over/under. Looks like Dayton missed a couple of free throws at the end that could have put it over the top! Thank goodness for 64.6% free throw shooting.

My next pick was Boston College over USC. They took a 4 point lead into the half but USC came out firing strong. The Eagles stuck around for a while but when they went cold USC did not. End result USC 72, Boston College 55. My final game of the night I picked against my blog and went with Florida State. They looked good at the half, up 31-19. Finally, a win I wouldn’t have to sweat out. Well, Wisconsin came out and outscored FSU big time in the second half. In overtime things were close all the way but again the Seminoles couldn’t help themselves from turning the ball over. Toney Douglas had a shot with 12 seconds to go and a one point lead. Instead of getting the ball inside for an easy deuce he settles for a three, misses, and gives Wisconsin the ball. Trevon Hughes drove to the hoop and drew a foul while making an incredible shot on the Badgers’ final possession. Wisconsin won, and my bracket won, 61-59. So on to the picks.

1) Rocco Mediate vs. Brendan de Jonge – de Jonge cards a lower front 9 score
2) Chelsea @ Tottenham Hotspur – Tottenham Hotspur win or draw
3) Baylor @ Virginia Tech – Baylor
4) UCLA vs. Villanova – UCLA
5) Reading @ Crystal Palace – 2 goals or fewer
6) Ireland @ Wales – Wales win
7) Steve Stricker vs. Nick Watney – Nick Watney cards a lower 3rd round score
8) Clint Bowyer vs. Kevin Harvick – Harvick has a better finishing position
9) Memphis win margin vs. Connecticut win margin – Connecticut win margin
10) Purdue vs. Washington – Washington
11) Columbus Blue Jackets @ Florida Panthers – Florida
12) Duke win margin vs. Gonzaga win margin – Gonzaga win margin
13) Korea vs. Venezuela – Korea
14) Antawn Jamison pts. and reb. vs. Steve Nash pts., ast. and stl. – Jamison pts. and rebs.

With college basketball I’ve been looking at what statistical categories the winning team did better in over the course of the regular season. So far 9 out of 14 winners have had advantages in rebounding margin and adjusted points. 8 of 14 winners were better in steals and assist to turnover ratio. Half of those 14 were better in terms of fewer empty possessions. Most of my college basketball picks today (and yesterday) are (were) based on these assumptions.

Analysis
2) Both soccer clubs are performing well lately. Tottenham Hotspur are 2-4-0 (W-D-L) in their last 6 home matches. Chelsea are 2-2-2 in their last 6 away matches. Fulham and Everton are the only teams to tie a visiting Chelsea and Manchester United and Liverpool the only ones to defeat them this season. Tottenham Hotspur have tied Manchester United and Arsenal in those past six matches. The Spurs have only allowed 0.643 goals per home match this season and only 0.417 goals in their last 12 matches. Chelsea only allow 0.571 goals in away matches this season. Chelsea have only allowed a goal in 4 away matches, with 10 shutouts aside. I like the striking power of Robbie Keane and Darren Bent along with Aaron Lennon. A 0-0 draw seems possible here.
Confidence: W1

3) Baylor has the advantage in steals, adjusted points, empty possessions, and three point shooting. Virginia Tech’s main advantage is in rebounding margin. Baylor is 3-7 on the road this season and Virginia Tech is 10-5 at home. Virginia Tech is a four point home favorite. I still like Bayor’s chances to win here with their three point shooting.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

4) Villanova is the higher seed and are a 2 to 3 point favorite in Vegas. Villanova also has a slight edge in rebounding margin, +4.1 to +3.8. UCLA has the edge in assist to turnover ratio, adjusted points, empty possessions, and steals. If Washington is the most solid straight up pick then UCLA is the next most solid, but I still have to give Villanova some credit for being a great team.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

9) Memphis and Connecticut should both walk all over their opponents even being as highly regarded as they are. Memphis is a 9 point favorite and Connecticut is a 10 point favorite in Vegas. Connecticut has an advantage in all four of the most predictive categories, rebounding margin, assist to turnover ratio, steals, and adjusted points. Memphis has an advantage in three of these categories, with Maryland having the better overall assist to turnover ratio. Maryland is a stronger defensive team than Texas A&M, at least in terms of turnover margin, FG% defense, 3P% defense, steals, and blocks. Memphis does have a pretty huge advantage in rebounding margin, +6.2 to -1.6, so I may have to switch back to Memphis.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

10) Washington has a +8.3 rebounding margin in their previous 34 games. Purdue has a -0.3 rebounding margin. Washington also averages a possibly insignificant 0.4 more steals per game. Washington has the advantage in adjusted points as well. Teams with advantages in rebounding margin and adjusted points have been 5-1. Dayton is the only team to win without having an advantage in either category, so I won’t say Purdue won’t win, but Washington is the best bet of any of the straight up matchups today.
Confidence: W6 streak or less

12) Western Kentucky actually matched up with Illinois pretty well and had more than a few statistical advantages. Here Gonzaga has the edge in adjusted points, assist to turnover ratio, steals, and empty possessions. Western Kentucky has a +1.6 edge in rebounding margin. Gonzaga is an 11 point favorite. Texas has a +1.7 edge in rebounding margin over Duke, and an edge in empty possessions. Duke has the edge in steals, three pointers scored, and adjusted points. Duke is an 8 point favorite to win.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

14) Antawn Jamison averages 31.0 points and rebounds on the season compared to 25.0 points and assists for Steve Nash. In their last 10 games Jamison has averaged 33.0 points and rebounds per game while Nash has averaged 31.5 points and assists. In their previous meeting at Washington Jamison had 40 points and rebounds while Nash had 29 points and assists.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

March 20th, 2009 Picks

2-3-0…. The front nine for Ryuji Imada and Sean O’Hair, 1st and 2nd place in last years tournament, battled to even par until the 9th hole where Imada got his first birdie of the day to win 35 strokes to 36. LSU got out to an early lead over Butler and were able to hold on for the win. I took BYU, however, and they got stomped. Texas A&M made their first 10 field goals and were 11 for 12 at one point where BYU was shooting 21.4%. BYU got the lead down to 9 and had two opportunities to make threes but couldn’t capitalize on the way to their seventh straight first round exit in the NCAA tournament. Then I took a gamble on California to ‘upset’ the ‘underdogs’, Maryland. It was a hard fought game but California failed to score for a couple of minutes in the second half and that was all it took for Maryland to go ahead by a dozen. Maryland ended up winning 84-71.

Notre Dame took on the visiting Lobos of New Mexico. They took a big lead early on going up 10 at the half. New Mexico played a terrific second half and had a five point lead with two minutes remaining. Notre Dame was able to score just enough points to end up 70-68. UCLA was much to same, going up 10 over VCU at the half and then giving the entire lead back. It all came down to the final possession as Maynor took the ball for VCU, down 1, with 12 seconds to go. He ended up getting a 12 foot jump shot with Darren Collison in his face. He tried to pump fake but Collison didn’t bite, and Maynor’s fall away jumper clanked off the front of the rim. Illinois was down 17 with four minutes remaining and fell just short of Western Kentucky 76-72. So on to the picks.

1) Trevor Immelman vs. Nick Watney – Immelman cards a lower front 9 score
2) Tennessee vs Oklahoma State – Tennessee
3) Syracuse win margin vs. Kansas win margin – Kansas win margin
4) Dayton vs. West Virginia – 129 points or fewer
5) VfL Bochum @ Borussia Monchengladbach – VfL Bochum win or draw
6) Charlotte Bobcats @ Toronto Raptors – Toronto
7) Arizona vs. Utah – Arizona
8) USC vs. Boston College – Boston College
9) Philadelphia Flyers @ Buffalo Sabres – Philadelphia
10) Siena vs. Ohio State – Siena
11) Wisconsin vs. Florida State – Wisconsin
12) Philadelphia 76ers vs. Golden State Warriors – Philadelphia

I’ll probably end up making a couple of changes here and there. Yesterday the guy with the better stats and better performance from last year lost on the front 9 so I literally flipped a coin on this one. Go Immelman! And good luck!

Analysis
2) Tennessee looks to have a major advantage on the boards in their game against Oklahoma State. Tennessee averages 4.6 boards more than their opposition while the Cowboys are out rebounded by 1.1 per game. Oklahoma State shoots a lot of three pointers, about 24 per game, and makes about 9 of them. Both teams force more turnovers than they give up, Oklahoma State has a +2.8 turnover margin and Tennessee is at +1.8. It looks like this will be a close game so with Oklahoma State shooting 74.3 from the line compared to 67.4% for the Volunteers I think the Cowboys have the advantage. Tennessee is a two to three point favorite in the sportsbooks.
UPDATE: On further analysis Oklahoma State has too many empty possessions in comparison to Tennessee. That, plus rebounding margin makes Tennessee the pick for me.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

3) Syracuse is a 12 point favorite over Stephen F. Austin and Kansas is a 10 point favorite over North Dakota State. North Dakota State has one player taller than 6’8", and that’s Lucas Moormann at 6’10" and 240 pounds. He’s the one player the Bison have who can possibly stop Cole Aldrich down low and he’s been known to get into foul trouble early. I expect him to play for more than his usual 21 minutes in this game. Stephen F. Austin’s biggest man is 6’9" 240lbs. Benson Akpan. Ongenaut, Jackson, Harris, and Onuaku should be able to have a field day on Stephen F. Ausin, but I have a feeling the Lumberjacks will surprise Syracuse with their offensive capabilities. In the end I think Kansas’ superior defense will keep North Dakota State from scoring while Syracuse will be forced to keep putting points up to extend their lead.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

5) Borussia Monchengladbach has been playing some terrific soccer lately with a 4-2 road win over FC Cologne and a 4-1 home win over SV Hamburg. VfL Bochum has been dealing with injury issues in their defensive front but have done well enough on the road pulling 1-1 draws at Arminia Bielefeld and Bayer Leverkusen. VfL Bochum will be missing an additional player from those squads, Marc Pfertzel. Borussia Monchengladbach have obviously been playing good football and they are favored to win with a Bochum win or a draw being just slightly favored when taken together. When Monchengladbach have been behind at the half at home they have never won. Bochum have lost four times and taken two draws when trailing at the half in away games. Monchengladbach have won once and lost twice at home when the match has been tied at the half. Bochum have drawn twice and lost once on the road when it has been tied at the half. VfL Bochum have allowed 18 goals in away matches and scored 8. Borussia Monchengladbach have allowed 22 goals at home and scored 19.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

8) Boston College is averaging 21 empty possessions per game compared to 19 empty possessions for Southern California. USC only makes 3.8 three pointers per game on average, and Boston College makes 6.4. USC has an assist to turnover ratio of 0.88. Boston College gets 1.11 assist to every turnover. Boston College plays at a faster pace, finally, so the empty possessions will end up hurting USC more.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

11) Florida State seems like they should be the lock of the day, even to me. Toney Douglas is a terrific ball player and the size of Florida State can give problems to anybody on the inside. Wisconsin out rebounds their opponents by 3.7 on average and Florida State only by 0.7. In the Big 10 where there are a lot of rebounds to grab and big players to grab them that says something. Wisconsin also has a much better assist/turnover ratio at 1.20 compared to 0.78 for Florida. Florida State turns the ball over quite a bit it seems. Wisconsin makes more three point shots per game and shoots a higher percentage than Florida State. The Seminoles should have an advantage when it comes to defense, however. I like Wisconsin having an advantage on rebounding and assist/turnover ratio, however, as five of six victors from yesterday had one or both of these statistical advantages. Florida State is a 2.5 to 3.5 point favorite.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

12) I just like the 76ers with Andre Miller, Samuel Dalembert, Thaddeus Young, Lou Williams, and Andre Iguodala. The Golden State Warriors can be very good at home, but have been only 3-3 at home lately with losses to Utah, Charlotte and Phoenix. Their victories have come against the L.A. Clippers, Dallas, and New Jersey. Philadelphia is 4-2 on the road recently with victories over the N.Y. Knicks, the L.A. Lakers, Memphis, and Washington. Their losses have been to Oklahoma City and Phoenix.
Confidence: W2 streak or less