March 25th, 2009 Picks

2-1-0 day today. It started off shaky with Hereford scoring an early goal on Carlisle before 10 minutes had even gone by. The quickly upped their lead to two twenty minutes later. Carlisle got a goal in first half injury time to give hope to those who had picked them to win but the Hereford United defense remained strong and both sides went scoreless in the second half. Hereford United picked up their third away win in 20 matches. Then I went with Auburn on the three point prop. It was close most of the way through the game with 7 threes apiece down into the final three minutes. Auburn hit a couple of threes to cut into Baylor’s threes and Baylor made sure to take shots from the paint with the dwindling lead. Jerrell, Carter, and Dunn combined for 6 of Baylor’s 7 threes. Reed and Waller hit four threes and Rasheem Barrett stepped up big with 3 of 5 shooting from behind the arc. Baylor held on to win 74-72.

I’d like to apologize for the misinformation about Jonas Hiller playing for Anaheim against Nashville. Giguere played great and the game went to a shootout. The Predators missed their first two attempts before they forced Giguere to make some saves. Eventually Rinne let one through and Anaheim prevailed. My last pick was Williams and Boozer to score more points. The two duos were within three points of one another all the way. Deron hit a jumper with two minutes to go to put the Jazz duo up by 1. 30 seconds later Adelman conceded the game and took Artest and Yao off the court. Williams and Boozer outscored Ming and Artest 32 to 27 and the Jazz won 99-86. So for now we will go onward unto the picks.

1) SC Rheindorf Altach @ Kapfenberg SV – Kapfenberg SV win
2) Kentucky @ Notre Dame – Notre Dame
3) Calgary Flames @ Pittsburgh Penguins – Pittsburgh
4) Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic – Boston
5) San Jose Sharks @ Chicago Blackhawks – San Jose
6) Anaheim Ducks @ Colorado Avalanche – Anaheim
7) St. Mary’s @ San Diego State – St. Mary’s
8) Utah Jazz @ Phoenix Suns – Utah

Analysis
1) SC Rheindorf Altach is 1-11-0 (W-L-D) in away matches this season. Their single victory was against LASK Linz who have a minus 10 goal differential at home this season. Kapfenberg SV have a plus 2 goal differential. They’re not a very good team either, but are 6-5-2 at home. SC Rheindorf Altach have given up 42 goals in 12 away matches, 3.5 per match! They’ve only scored 13 goals in those 12 matches as well. Of course SC Rheindorf Altach could win or draw in this game, but since they never have drawn a match on the road and since they’ve won less than 10% of their matches on the road I’ll go with Kapfenberg SV.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

2) Notre Dame is at home against Kentucky tonight. The Wildcats should have an advantage on the boards though Zeller and Harangody should do well against a generally undersized Kentucky team. Against Creighton Kentucky had the biggest men on the court, but in this game Notre Dame will have that advantage so look for Meeks to have a bigger role over Patterson tonight. Kentucky is a good defensive team with their opponents shooting only 38.8% from the field compared to Notre Dame’s opponents who shoot 42.7%. Kentucky should also have the advantage in blocks and steals. Notre Dame will have to make their three pointers when Harangody is double teamed to maintain and extend a lead against Kentucky and they should with 39.6% shooting from beyond the arc this season. Kentucky averages an astounding 17.2 turnovers per game. Notre Dame averages 9.7 turnovers per game. So if Kentucky can play good defense, disrupting Notre Dame, and avoid turning the ball over constantly they have a good chance to win this game. If Notre Dame can manage to shoot 40% from the field, prevent Kentucky from scoring too many dunks and layups, and force even 12 turnovers they will almost assuredly win.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

7) Even as a Mountain West fan I, like most of America, have rarely seen San Diego State play. San Diego State is favored by 3.5 at home. St. Mary’s has a pretty sizable advantage in adjusted points and rebounding margin so I expect Samhan and Simpson to do well on the boards for the Gaels. San Diego State has more empty possessions than St. Mary’s and fewer total possessions on average. St. Mary’s gets more blocks, but San Diego State grabs more steals. San Diego State’s opponents shoot a lower percentage from the field and from three point range than St. Mary’s opponents. The Aztecs shoot the three ball at 34.7% compared to 33.6 percent for St. Mary’s. When San Diego State lost by 3 to St. Mary’s on a neutral court they shot 33.3% from the free throw line, yet are a 70% shooting team on the season, ergo St. Mary’s was lucky to have won that game. I have to give St. Mary’s the advantage based on offensive efficiency in the end, but if Kyle Spain is lighting things up San Diego State should win.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

8) Phoenix is on a five game winning streak following a six game losing streak, with two of those wins being against teams with a better than .500 record and all but one game being at home. The Utah Jazz are at full strength and have been playing well since the All-Star break with an NBA best 14-3 record. All three losses came on the road to Atlanta, Miami, and Orlando. Phoenix is without Leandro Barbosa for this game and Stoudemire is out for the season. Phoenix won at home against the Jazz by 2 earlier in the season. Carlos Boozer was out with injury for that game and Phoenix still had Raja Bell, Boris Diaw, Leandro Barbosa, and Amare Stoudemire. Phoenix has added Matt Barnes and Jason Richardson since then, but I don’t see them making up for the loss of Bell, Diaw, Barbosa, and Stoudemire. The Jazz are 14-20 on the road with 13 of those wins coming against sub-.500 teams. Phoenix is a 3 point favorite. I’ll be going with the better team here and give them a shot on the road now that they’re at full-strength.
Confidence: W3 streak or less