March 21st, 2009 Picks

Man, 1-4-0 today, the beatings continue. Started out with Immelman hitting zero birdies and one bogey, while Watney shot a cooool 2 under for the front nine. Then I went against my initial instinct and switched my pick to Tennessee. I didn’t get to see any of the game but looks like Oklahoma State was in the lead for most of the game. Then I got my single win of the day on the Dayton/West Virginia over/under. Looks like Dayton missed a couple of free throws at the end that could have put it over the top! Thank goodness for 64.6% free throw shooting.

My next pick was Boston College over USC. They took a 4 point lead into the half but USC came out firing strong. The Eagles stuck around for a while but when they went cold USC did not. End result USC 72, Boston College 55. My final game of the night I picked against my blog and went with Florida State. They looked good at the half, up 31-19. Finally, a win I wouldn’t have to sweat out. Well, Wisconsin came out and outscored FSU big time in the second half. In overtime things were close all the way but again the Seminoles couldn’t help themselves from turning the ball over. Toney Douglas had a shot with 12 seconds to go and a one point lead. Instead of getting the ball inside for an easy deuce he settles for a three, misses, and gives Wisconsin the ball. Trevon Hughes drove to the hoop and drew a foul while making an incredible shot on the Badgers’ final possession. Wisconsin won, and my bracket won, 61-59. So on to the picks.

1) Rocco Mediate vs. Brendan de Jonge – de Jonge cards a lower front 9 score
2) Chelsea @ Tottenham Hotspur – Tottenham Hotspur win or draw
3) Baylor @ Virginia Tech – Baylor
4) UCLA vs. Villanova – UCLA
5) Reading @ Crystal Palace – 2 goals or fewer
6) Ireland @ Wales – Wales win
7) Steve Stricker vs. Nick Watney – Nick Watney cards a lower 3rd round score
8) Clint Bowyer vs. Kevin Harvick – Harvick has a better finishing position
9) Memphis win margin vs. Connecticut win margin – Connecticut win margin
10) Purdue vs. Washington – Washington
11) Columbus Blue Jackets @ Florida Panthers – Florida
12) Duke win margin vs. Gonzaga win margin – Gonzaga win margin
13) Korea vs. Venezuela – Korea
14) Antawn Jamison pts. and reb. vs. Steve Nash pts., ast. and stl. – Jamison pts. and rebs.

With college basketball I’ve been looking at what statistical categories the winning team did better in over the course of the regular season. So far 9 out of 14 winners have had advantages in rebounding margin and adjusted points. 8 of 14 winners were better in steals and assist to turnover ratio. Half of those 14 were better in terms of fewer empty possessions. Most of my college basketball picks today (and yesterday) are (were) based on these assumptions.

Analysis
2) Both soccer clubs are performing well lately. Tottenham Hotspur are 2-4-0 (W-D-L) in their last 6 home matches. Chelsea are 2-2-2 in their last 6 away matches. Fulham and Everton are the only teams to tie a visiting Chelsea and Manchester United and Liverpool the only ones to defeat them this season. Tottenham Hotspur have tied Manchester United and Arsenal in those past six matches. The Spurs have only allowed 0.643 goals per home match this season and only 0.417 goals in their last 12 matches. Chelsea only allow 0.571 goals in away matches this season. Chelsea have only allowed a goal in 4 away matches, with 10 shutouts aside. I like the striking power of Robbie Keane and Darren Bent along with Aaron Lennon. A 0-0 draw seems possible here.
Confidence: W1

3) Baylor has the advantage in steals, adjusted points, empty possessions, and three point shooting. Virginia Tech’s main advantage is in rebounding margin. Baylor is 3-7 on the road this season and Virginia Tech is 10-5 at home. Virginia Tech is a four point home favorite. I still like Bayor’s chances to win here with their three point shooting.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

4) Villanova is the higher seed and are a 2 to 3 point favorite in Vegas. Villanova also has a slight edge in rebounding margin, +4.1 to +3.8. UCLA has the edge in assist to turnover ratio, adjusted points, empty possessions, and steals. If Washington is the most solid straight up pick then UCLA is the next most solid, but I still have to give Villanova some credit for being a great team.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

9) Memphis and Connecticut should both walk all over their opponents even being as highly regarded as they are. Memphis is a 9 point favorite and Connecticut is a 10 point favorite in Vegas. Connecticut has an advantage in all four of the most predictive categories, rebounding margin, assist to turnover ratio, steals, and adjusted points. Memphis has an advantage in three of these categories, with Maryland having the better overall assist to turnover ratio. Maryland is a stronger defensive team than Texas A&M, at least in terms of turnover margin, FG% defense, 3P% defense, steals, and blocks. Memphis does have a pretty huge advantage in rebounding margin, +6.2 to -1.6, so I may have to switch back to Memphis.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

10) Washington has a +8.3 rebounding margin in their previous 34 games. Purdue has a -0.3 rebounding margin. Washington also averages a possibly insignificant 0.4 more steals per game. Washington has the advantage in adjusted points as well. Teams with advantages in rebounding margin and adjusted points have been 5-1. Dayton is the only team to win without having an advantage in either category, so I won’t say Purdue won’t win, but Washington is the best bet of any of the straight up matchups today.
Confidence: W6 streak or less

12) Western Kentucky actually matched up with Illinois pretty well and had more than a few statistical advantages. Here Gonzaga has the edge in adjusted points, assist to turnover ratio, steals, and empty possessions. Western Kentucky has a +1.6 edge in rebounding margin. Gonzaga is an 11 point favorite. Texas has a +1.7 edge in rebounding margin over Duke, and an edge in empty possessions. Duke has the edge in steals, three pointers scored, and adjusted points. Duke is an 8 point favorite to win.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

14) Antawn Jamison averages 31.0 points and rebounds on the season compared to 25.0 points and assists for Steve Nash. In their last 10 games Jamison has averaged 33.0 points and rebounds per game while Nash has averaged 31.5 points and assists. In their previous meeting at Washington Jamison had 40 points and rebounds while Nash had 29 points and assists.
Confidence: W4 streak or less