March 26th, 2009 Picks

Back to a 1-2-0 day. It started out with CASHPOINT SC Rheindorf Altach managing their first draw of the season on the road against Kapfenberg SV. Kapfenberg scored early in the second half to go up 1-0 but then gave up a goal 16 minutes later. Kapfenberg created more and better scoring opportunities but could not capitalize. SC Rheindorf Altach made a wicked goal from the left side of the box, the guy had his back to the goal but still managed to whip it into the upper right corner. End result, 1-1 draw.

I then took Notre Dame and they did a good job shooting their three pointers. Notre Dame advanced to the NIT semi-finals with a 77-67 victory over Kentucky. Kentucky only had 10 turnovers in the game but Notre Dame improved on their #1 ranking for fewest turnovers per game by having only 6. Jodie Meeks had a nice outing with 21 points on 6 for 10 shooting but Luke Harangody was the difference as he went for 30 points and 11 rebounds. Kentucky never really threatened in the second half with Notre Dame leading by at least 5 after the break.

My last pick was St. Mary’s over SDSU. It was a blowout right from the start as the Aztecs took a 15-0 lead. Patty Mills shot 7 for 24 from the field and made a few huge mistakes at the end that prevented the Gaels from tying SDSU or taking the lead. Billy White had a great game for SDSU scoring 17 points on 8 for 12 shooting. The Aztecs played strong defense, keeping St. Mary’s below 40 percent shooting for the night. St. Mary’s never fully recovered from the first five minutes of the game and San Diego State advances with a 70-66 win. So on to the picks.

1) Charles Howell III vs. Pat Perez – Howell III cards a lower front 9 score
2) Tiger Woods’ First Round Score: 68 or under vs. 69 or over – 68 or under
3) Calgary Flames @ Columbus Blue Jackets – Columbus
4) Connecticut win margin vs. Pittsburgh win margin – Connecticut win margin
5) Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls – Chicago
6) Vancouver Canucks @ St. Louis Blues – St. Louis
7) Villanova vs. Duke – Duke
8) Edmonton Oilers @ Phoenix Coyotes – Edmonton

Analysis
1) Analysis. I’m a bit lax on the use of that word here. I flipped a coin and it ended up heads so I picked Howell III. It’s a mere coincidence that of the five tournaments he and Perez have both played Perez has never shot a lower score on the front 9. Howell has gone lower 3 times and they tied twice.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

2) It’s a par 70, 2 under isn’t much. Woods shot 1 under, 2 under, 4 under, and 4 under at the Transitions Open last week. He’s slowly getting better and I think there’s a good chance he can continue to progress in this tournament.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

4) Connecticut handed Texas A&M a 26 point loss, while Pittsburgh only pulled away from Oklahoma State near the end to win by 8. The Aggies and Cowboys were each 9-7 in Big 12 play and split their two games over the regular season. Now Pittsburgh is playing another team who can shoot the three point shot with Xavier going at a 39.9% clip. To top it off Xavier is bigger and more physical than Oklahoma State, with a +8.4 rebounding margin compared to Oklahoma State’s -1.1 margin. Connecticut will have size on Purdue, with advantages in rebounding margin, adjusted points, and three more blocks per game. Purdue shoots and makes more three pointers, but I expect them to be outmatched by Connecticut while Xavier will give Pittsburgh a good game.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

7) Duke and Villanova match up very closely statistically. Villanova’s biggest advantage is in field goal percentage defense where they limit opponents to 40.6% from the field compared to Duke’s opponents who have shot 43.4%. Villanova also has an advantage in rebounding margin. Duke forces more turnovers than Villanova and have a higher adjusted points rating, mainly due to Villanova having nearly two extra empty possessions. Duke will need to force those turnovers to win in a close game and have great shooting nights from Singler, Scheyer, and Henderson. Villanova has a mob of great athletes that gives them the advantage in my opinion, but Duke is a two point favorite in Vegas. That, along with the advantage in blocks, steals, and adjusted points leads me to believe Duke should win a very, very close game.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

8) Edmonton is a -130 favorite on the road and Phoenix is a +110 underdog. Edmonton is 3-0-0 against Phoenix this season. Dwayne Roloson has a 2.75 goals against average with 91.6 SV% for the Oilers. Ilya Bryzgalov has a 2.92 GAA with a 90.9 SV%. The Oilers are 3-1-1 in their last 5 road games and Phoenix is 2-2-1 in their last 5 home games. Phoenix’s two home wins recently were against San Jose and Vancouver so they are dangerous, but the trends and the odds say to go with Edmonton here.
Confidence: W2 streak or less