March 24th, 2009 Picks

An ugly 2-2-0 day though not bad considering my picks went below .500 for the day. The day started out nicely with FK Tom’ Tomsk scoring a goal in the first minute of their match against CSKA Moscow. They went into lockdown mode after that and managed to keep CSKA from finding the net for the rest of the game. Needless to say CSKA returned the favor and the match ended as a 1-0 win for FK Tom’ Tomsk. I then went with Kidderminster Harriers. The game was a 0-0 draw until the last moments of the game when Kidderminster scored a goal in injury time to seal the win.

I then took Nate Robinson. 6 for 22 shooting for the night. 1 for 7 on threes, including a miss that could have tied the game and sent it into overtime. Nate Robinson was very nearly the worst Knick on offense this night. Dwight Howard had a nice game scoring 13 in the first quarter, 7 in the second, 6 in the third, and 3 in the fourth. Robinson was down 20 to 5 at the half and never seriously threatened. My final pick was St. Mary’s over Davidson. It was a close game for the first half with Davidson making just enough threes and forcing just enough turnovers to keep it close. St. Mary’s then began to gradually draw away in the second half. Patty Mills, Omar Samhan, and Diamon Simpson were terrific. Curry had a good game for Davidson as well but he did not have enough from his supporting cast to lift Davidson to victory. St. Mary’s won the game 80-68. So then, on with the picks.

1) Hereford United @ Carlisle United – Carlisle United win
2) Baylor @ Auburn – Auburn scores more three pointers
3) Washington Capitals @ Toronto Maple Leafs – 7 goals or more
4) Anaheim Ducks @ Nashville Predators – Nashville
5) Detroit Pistons @ Chicago Bulls – Chicago
6) Vancouver Canucks @ Dallas Stars – Dallas
7) Penn State @ Florida – 141 points or fewer
8) Ron Artest and Yao Ming vs. Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams – Ming and Artest pts.

Analysis
1) Hereford United is 2-2-15 (W-D-L) on the road this season. Their wins and draws have come against Colchester United, Brighton, Cheltenham Town, and Walsall. So they have defeated or drawn against teams higher in the tables than Carlisle United but half of their wins and draws have come against other relegation squads. Carlisle United are 7-4-7 at home. They lost to Tranmere Rovers at home who are 7th in the tables and have a losing record on the road, 5-4-10. They also lost to Hartlepool United who are 4-3-12 on the road. Their 9 other losses and draws at home have come against squads with more wins/draws than losses. Carlisle United are dealing with a few injuries with Livesey, Bridge-Wilkinson, Horwood, and Murphy out. Thirlwell is likely to play. All of these players missed the match against Hereford United earlier this season which Hereford won 1-0. Injury information for Hereford United is more difficult to come by so for now I’ll assume they are at full strength. The current odds have a Carlisle win favored at 54%.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

2) Baylor makes 8.1 three pointers per game and Auburn makes 7.1 three pointers per game. Neither team is very big so one might expect them to shoot fewer threes and score inside, yet both teams tend to shoot at least nearly 20 threes even if the largest defender on the court is 6’9". Baylor shoots 36.2% on threes, while Auburn shoots 33.4%. Baylor has three deadly shooters in Tweety Carter, Lacedarius Dunn, and Curtis Jerrells. Auburn’s main threats are DeWayne Reed and Tay Waller. Both schools have at least three other players who can and do shoot threes, however. Auburn’s opponents shoot 32.9% on threes and Baylor’s opponents shoot 33.9%. Auburn’s opponents also shoot a lower percentage from the field and Auburn forces more turnovers than Baylor. I like Auburn here to defend the perimeter and frustrate Baylor’s offense. Of course this will come down to which team has the hot hands, but I think Auburn has a better chance of that with their defense.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

4) Nashville is a pretty big favorite at home (-140) and Pekka Rinne is a terrific goalie. Anaheim will be trying out Jonas Hiller in net against the Predators as GIguere has not done so well against them this year. Nashville is 2-0-1 against the Ducks with an overtime loss in Anaheim just 6 days ago. Nashville is coming off a shootout loss to San Jose and should be looking to return to the form that gave them an 8-0 win over Detroit, the Red Wings’ only scoreless game this season. Anaheim is 4-1-0 in their last 5 games with overtime wins at home over Nashville and Vancouver. This is probably one of the safer picks on the board tonight.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

7) This looks to be another close over/under that comes down to the last few possessions. A number of measures are pointing to 136 to 138 points being scored here. One made three and an extra free throw could put it over, however. Cornley, Penn State’s second leading scorer, is questionable for the game tonight and Talor Battle is probable to play with a minor hip injury that has not affected his scoring too much. Either way Penn State can be expected to score around 60 points, so Florida will need to have an 80 point game to put this one over. They can do it, having scored 80 or more in 19 of their 35 games. If you take this pick, good luck.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

8) Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer outscored Yao Ming and Ron Artest 46 to 44 in the one matchup this season where all four played. Over the past 10 games Ming and Artest have been averaging 38.1 points and Williams and Boozer have been averaging 31.5 points. That total is skewed for the Jazz players by Boozer returning from an injury which kept him out for over 40 games. Williams also had a couple of low scoring games in there. Okur, Collins, Millsap, or Boozer won’t be able to stop Yao from scoring, but he may have a poor shooting night on his own. The best hope for the Jazz men is for Kirilenko and Harpring to slow down Artest. Then they will need Boozer to play up to form and score 20 or more points. In the 11 games since he’s returned Boozer has scored 20 or more three times, with a high of 23 points. On the other hand, Yao Ming has only scored 20 or more four times in the past 11 games. Boozer and Williams could definitely win this but it seems a bit more likely for Artest and Ming to end up on top. Of course, I’ll be picking Williams and Boozer.
Confidence: W1 streak or less