March 20th, 2009 Picks

2-3-0…. The front nine for Ryuji Imada and Sean O’Hair, 1st and 2nd place in last years tournament, battled to even par until the 9th hole where Imada got his first birdie of the day to win 35 strokes to 36. LSU got out to an early lead over Butler and were able to hold on for the win. I took BYU, however, and they got stomped. Texas A&M made their first 10 field goals and were 11 for 12 at one point where BYU was shooting 21.4%. BYU got the lead down to 9 and had two opportunities to make threes but couldn’t capitalize on the way to their seventh straight first round exit in the NCAA tournament. Then I took a gamble on California to ‘upset’ the ‘underdogs’, Maryland. It was a hard fought game but California failed to score for a couple of minutes in the second half and that was all it took for Maryland to go ahead by a dozen. Maryland ended up winning 84-71.

Notre Dame took on the visiting Lobos of New Mexico. They took a big lead early on going up 10 at the half. New Mexico played a terrific second half and had a five point lead with two minutes remaining. Notre Dame was able to score just enough points to end up 70-68. UCLA was much to same, going up 10 over VCU at the half and then giving the entire lead back. It all came down to the final possession as Maynor took the ball for VCU, down 1, with 12 seconds to go. He ended up getting a 12 foot jump shot with Darren Collison in his face. He tried to pump fake but Collison didn’t bite, and Maynor’s fall away jumper clanked off the front of the rim. Illinois was down 17 with four minutes remaining and fell just short of Western Kentucky 76-72. So on to the picks.

1) Trevor Immelman vs. Nick Watney – Immelman cards a lower front 9 score
2) Tennessee vs Oklahoma State – Tennessee
3) Syracuse win margin vs. Kansas win margin – Kansas win margin
4) Dayton vs. West Virginia – 129 points or fewer
5) VfL Bochum @ Borussia Monchengladbach – VfL Bochum win or draw
6) Charlotte Bobcats @ Toronto Raptors – Toronto
7) Arizona vs. Utah – Arizona
8) USC vs. Boston College – Boston College
9) Philadelphia Flyers @ Buffalo Sabres – Philadelphia
10) Siena vs. Ohio State – Siena
11) Wisconsin vs. Florida State – Wisconsin
12) Philadelphia 76ers vs. Golden State Warriors – Philadelphia

I’ll probably end up making a couple of changes here and there. Yesterday the guy with the better stats and better performance from last year lost on the front 9 so I literally flipped a coin on this one. Go Immelman! And good luck!

Analysis
2) Tennessee looks to have a major advantage on the boards in their game against Oklahoma State. Tennessee averages 4.6 boards more than their opposition while the Cowboys are out rebounded by 1.1 per game. Oklahoma State shoots a lot of three pointers, about 24 per game, and makes about 9 of them. Both teams force more turnovers than they give up, Oklahoma State has a +2.8 turnover margin and Tennessee is at +1.8. It looks like this will be a close game so with Oklahoma State shooting 74.3 from the line compared to 67.4% for the Volunteers I think the Cowboys have the advantage. Tennessee is a two to three point favorite in the sportsbooks.
UPDATE: On further analysis Oklahoma State has too many empty possessions in comparison to Tennessee. That, plus rebounding margin makes Tennessee the pick for me.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

3) Syracuse is a 12 point favorite over Stephen F. Austin and Kansas is a 10 point favorite over North Dakota State. North Dakota State has one player taller than 6’8", and that’s Lucas Moormann at 6’10" and 240 pounds. He’s the one player the Bison have who can possibly stop Cole Aldrich down low and he’s been known to get into foul trouble early. I expect him to play for more than his usual 21 minutes in this game. Stephen F. Austin’s biggest man is 6’9" 240lbs. Benson Akpan. Ongenaut, Jackson, Harris, and Onuaku should be able to have a field day on Stephen F. Ausin, but I have a feeling the Lumberjacks will surprise Syracuse with their offensive capabilities. In the end I think Kansas’ superior defense will keep North Dakota State from scoring while Syracuse will be forced to keep putting points up to extend their lead.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

5) Borussia Monchengladbach has been playing some terrific soccer lately with a 4-2 road win over FC Cologne and a 4-1 home win over SV Hamburg. VfL Bochum has been dealing with injury issues in their defensive front but have done well enough on the road pulling 1-1 draws at Arminia Bielefeld and Bayer Leverkusen. VfL Bochum will be missing an additional player from those squads, Marc Pfertzel. Borussia Monchengladbach have obviously been playing good football and they are favored to win with a Bochum win or a draw being just slightly favored when taken together. When Monchengladbach have been behind at the half at home they have never won. Bochum have lost four times and taken two draws when trailing at the half in away games. Monchengladbach have won once and lost twice at home when the match has been tied at the half. Bochum have drawn twice and lost once on the road when it has been tied at the half. VfL Bochum have allowed 18 goals in away matches and scored 8. Borussia Monchengladbach have allowed 22 goals at home and scored 19.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

8) Boston College is averaging 21 empty possessions per game compared to 19 empty possessions for Southern California. USC only makes 3.8 three pointers per game on average, and Boston College makes 6.4. USC has an assist to turnover ratio of 0.88. Boston College gets 1.11 assist to every turnover. Boston College plays at a faster pace, finally, so the empty possessions will end up hurting USC more.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

11) Florida State seems like they should be the lock of the day, even to me. Toney Douglas is a terrific ball player and the size of Florida State can give problems to anybody on the inside. Wisconsin out rebounds their opponents by 3.7 on average and Florida State only by 0.7. In the Big 10 where there are a lot of rebounds to grab and big players to grab them that says something. Wisconsin also has a much better assist/turnover ratio at 1.20 compared to 0.78 for Florida. Florida State turns the ball over quite a bit it seems. Wisconsin makes more three point shots per game and shoots a higher percentage than Florida State. The Seminoles should have an advantage when it comes to defense, however. I like Wisconsin having an advantage on rebounding and assist/turnover ratio, however, as five of six victors from yesterday had one or both of these statistical advantages. Florida State is a 2.5 to 3.5 point favorite.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

12) I just like the 76ers with Andre Miller, Samuel Dalembert, Thaddeus Young, Lou Williams, and Andre Iguodala. The Golden State Warriors can be very good at home, but have been only 3-3 at home lately with losses to Utah, Charlotte and Phoenix. Their victories have come against the L.A. Clippers, Dallas, and New Jersey. Philadelphia is 4-2 on the road recently with victories over the N.Y. Knicks, the L.A. Lakers, Memphis, and Washington. Their losses have been to Oklahoma City and Phoenix.
Confidence: W2 streak or less