March 23rd, 2009 Picks

Alright, finally got a perfect 5-0-0 day! Started off with Ajax Amsterdam who were able to take advantage of NAC Breda’s injuries in winning 3-0 on the road. Then I went with Syracuse. Arizona State played a pretty good game, but they just couldn’t stop Syracuse. Onuaku and Jackson in particular were able to score at will down low. Jonny Flynn had 11 points and 7 assists. Kuksiks and Abbott tried to keep ASU in the mix hitting 12 threes between them, but Devendorf and Rautins had an answer for nearly every one. Syracuse led by 9 or more for much of the game and ended up winning 78-67.

Then I took Xavier over Wisconsin. I have to admit Wisconsin looked pretty solid in the first half and for most of the second. Eventually, however, Wisconsin’s offense stalled and Xavier was able to run away down the stretch in a 60-49 win. I then took Michigan State, my ‘lock’ of the day. It was touch-and-go for a while. USC did a terrific job defending inside. Michigan State got plenty of offensive rebounds but they could not convert them into second chance points. Eventually they were just a play or two too good for USC in this game, winning 74-69. My final pick was Japan, who gave up a solo home run on the first at bat of the game. They came back however, and were able to outscore U.S.A. 9-4. So on to the picks.

1) FK Tom’ Tomsk @ CSKA Moscow – 3 goals or more
2) Kidderminster Harriers @ Wrexham – Kidderminster Harriers win or draw
3) Kentucky @ Creighton – Creighton
4) New Jersey Devils @ Philadelphia Flyers – Philadelphia
5) Carolina Hurricanes @ Florida Panthers – Florida
6) Dwight Howard pts. vs. Nate Robinson pts. – Robinson pts.
7) Stanford @ Wichita State – Stanford
8) Detroit Red Wings @ Calgary Flames – Calgary
9) Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns – Denver
10) Vermont @ Oregon State – Vermont
11) Korea vs. Japan – Korea
12) Davidson @ St. Mary’s – St. Mary’s

Well, after 30 NIT and NCAA games 23 winning teams have had a higher adjusted points rating, that’s over 75%. 20 have had the advantage in rebounding margin, 67%. 19 have had an advantage in steals and 17 have had an advantage in assist to turnover ratio, three point percentage, and empty possessions. 15 have had an advantage in blocks per game and three pointers made. Best of luck to everyone!

Analysis
1) Last season 3 or more goals were scored in 33% of CSKA Moscow’s home matches, and in 40% of FK Tom’ Tomsk’s away matches. Three of six of those overs for FK Tom’ Tomsk came in their first 4 away matches. Four of them came against teams in the top 6 table positions. Three of five of those overs for CSKA Moscow came against the bottom four teams in the tables. Currently the average odds are 55.5% favoring under 2.5 goals and 44.5% favoring over 2.5 goals. This is a real tossup with a lot favoring both sides and I just have a feeling CSKA Moscow has it in them to score 3 on their own.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

2) Wrexham have not been playing terrifically at home lately. In their past five games they have 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss. Their win was against Gray’s Athletic and the draws have been against such relegation squads as Northwich Victoria. Kidderminster Harriers haven’t been fantastic on the road lately either, with a loss to Barrow who lie below Wrexham. They do have an impressive victory against Torquay United, however. Wrexham are 5-2 at home with a halftime lead, 3-3 when it has been tied, and 1-3 when behind at the half. On the road Kidderminster are 3-0 with a half time lead, 4-3 when it has been tied, and 1-4 when behind at the half. As near as I can tell both squads are at or near full strength. I’ll go with Kidderminster to at least draw against Wrexham who have not had a win against a team above them in the tables since December.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

3) Creighton is a slight favorite at home here. The Bluejays average fewer empty possessions, have a slightly higher adjusted points rating, shoot better on three pointers, score more three pointers per game, have a better assist to turnover ratio, and get more steals per game. Kentucky has a much better rebounding margin and averages more blocks. So Creighton should win this game easily. Kentucky has a couple of 6’9" forwards, Patterson and Stevenson, that could mean big trouble for Creighton. Creighton have only a few bigs and will need big games out of them. The size of Kentucky will probably give Creighton’s small guards some problems. If Kentucky can score easily inside, get second chance points, and avoid too many turnovers they have a very good chance of winning this game. If Creighton is hitting threes and scoring off of turnovers, however, they should win in a close game.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

6) Nate Robinson has been averaging 23.7 points in his last 10 games compared to 20.9 points for Dwight Howard. Dwight Howard dominates in the paint most games, yet he doesn’t score tons of points. Many teams revert to fouling him and rely on his poor free throw shooting to keep him from scoring. Nate Robinson outscored Howard 32 to 24 the last time they played in New York, and 27 to 15 when they played in Orlando. Dwight Howard has scored 30+ points 7 times this season. Nate Robinson has scored 30+ points 7 times since February 1st. I like the player who has won the previous matchups and is more likely to blow up for big numbers.
Confidence: W6 streak or less

9) Denver is 1-1 against Phoenix this season, losing 101-108 at Phoenix and winning in overtime 119-113 at home. Amare Stoudemire and Leandro Barbosa played in both of those games and both will be out with injury for tonight. Shaq may have a good game, but Nene is as capable of a defender as anyone else in the league. In the game in Phoenix Shaq had 19 points, 9 rebounds, and 1 block. Nene had 20 points, 15 rebounds, and 2 blocks. Phoenix is a 3.5 point favorite at home. Denver is 18-17 on the road this season, which ties them for the 7th best road record in the NBA. Denver will keep Phoenix below their average points scored, but Denver will probably score more than average against a weak Suns defense.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

10) Oregon State defeated visiting Houston, a fairly good Conference USA team, 49-45. Their defense dominated as Houston was held to under 30% shooting for the game. Vermont will present more of a problem I think. Oregon State has a slight advantage in three pointers scored by a small margin. Vermont own advantages in all the other important statistical categories. They are a better shooting team than Houston so I think Oregon State will not be holding them under 50 points in this game. Vermont is a much better three point shooting team than Houston so I think they will make Oregon State pay for clogging the middle.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

11) I really know very little about baseball. Here, all I know is Japan is 2-2 against Korea in the WBC this year. Korea is 2-0 when Jung Bong starts on the mound, and he will be starting tonight.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

12) Davidson has quite a few advantages that would suggest they should win this game. First they have a small advantage in adjusted points. They also have an advantage in steals, assist to turnover ratio, three pointers made, and three point percentage. St. Mary’s has the advantage in having fewer empty possessions, more blocks, and in rebounding margin. Normally I would choose Davidson as the vast majority, 83.3 percent, of winners in the 30 games I’ve looked at have been at least tied in number of predictive categories they have an advantage in. Here I think St. Mary’s puts a dent in that 83 percent. Davidson has nobody to stop Omar Samhan and it will be a contest to see who gets in foul trouble first, Samhan or Lovedale. St. Mary’s can at least put more bigs in, Davidson cannot. Patty Mills should help neutralize Davidson’s advantage of having Stephen Curry. As long as St. Mary’s can avoid turning the ball over excessively, they should win.
Confidence: W8 streak or less