May 4th, 2009 Picks

1-2-1 today and I’ll consider myself lucky to get that. My first pick was Cagliari to win or draw. Palermo came out the aggressors and after a goal directly from a free kick by Fabrizio Miccoli at 38’ allowed the pink-blacks to take a 2-0 lead into the half. Jeda pulled Cagliari back to within one shortly after halftime but Palermo responded with 3 straight goals. Palermo collected three points and won the match 5 to 1.

My second pick was Sporting Gijon. After Cagliari was deicmated it was certainly a “Ah hell, Gijon it is” moment. Gijon took the lead at 61’ and appeared to be headed to victory, but Etxeberría headed a pass on over to Amorebieta who headed it on in for the equalizer in injury time. The final score was Sporting Gijon 1, Athletic Bilbao 1 for the push.

My third pick was the Houston Astros. Both Wandy Rodriguez and Jo-Jo Reyes gave up three runs before being relieved in the 6th inning with Reyes being credited for a fourth earned run after a batter he had walked was batted in by a sacrifice fly. Houston did a great job advancing and scoring runners with 4 of their 7 runs coming from sacrifices. Atlanta’s bullpen gave up a couple of extra runs to decide the game, Houston 7, Atlanta 5. LaTroy Hawkins got the save for the Astros.

My final pick was the Chicago White Sox. I really should stop being so stubborn as the absences of Dye, Thome, Pierzynski, and Getz were certainly felt. The Sox were able to get hits off of Harrison, but with runners in scoring position Harrison did a great job of avoiding walks and preventing hits. The infielders for the Rangers also did a terrific job. Ian Kinsler started the game with a solo home run for the second time in this series and the Rangers combined for 10 hits and 5 runs in 5¹/₃ innings off of Danks. So on to the picks.

1) Deccan Chargers vs. Chennai Super Kings – Chennai
2) Empoli @ Bari – Empoli win or draw
3) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals – Washington
4) Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees – New York
5) Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics – Boston
6) Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals – St. Louis
7) Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics – Oakland
8) Yao Ming vs. Kobe Bryant – Ming pts. and reb.

Analysis
1) For this match cricinfo.com has one of the most informative previews I’ve seen for any sporting event. Click here to get the scoop on lineups, stats, and recent form this season. Deccan Chargers won their first meeting with Chennai this season mainly due to a fast start by Deccan and a poor finish by the Super Kings’ batsmen. Chennai have a run rate of 9.00 per over this season compared to 8.30 per over for Deccan. Deccan have the better bowlers, so Chennai will need their fielders to prevent outs and will need more solid batting all down their order. There’s a real risk Deccan could win the game by taking wickets, but they haven’t done too well in that aspect so far this tournament. Chennai are favored 4/6 to 6/5 for Deccan in this match.

2)

Bari are currently 1st in Serie B with a game in hand on 2nd place Parma. They are virtually guaranteed a spot in Serie A next season as they are 10 points clear of 3rd place Livorno who have 12 points possible from their remaining four matches. A win over Empoli would clinch their promotion to Serie A. Unfortunately, Bari have had difficulty collecting three points at home against opponents in the top half of the table with a loss to Parma, and draws against Ascoli and Vicenza in their 6 most recent home matches. Empoli are playing for a chance at promotion to Serie A. They are currently one point behind Grosseto for the final playoff spot. They lead Grosseto in goal differential so even a draw at Bari would give them that spot for the moment. Empoli have been quite inconsistent on the road with a draw at 3rd place Livorno and 6^th place Grosseto, but a loss to 14^th place Pisa in their last 5 away matches. Bari are favored to win with a 45% chance, and a draw is being given 32% odds. Bari is only favored given their chances of winning by 1, 2, 3, or more goals, however. A draw is the most likely single result, with Bari by 1 the next most likely and Empoli by 1 the third most likely result. If either team is leading at the half they will have a great advantage, as Bari have lost or drawn all 5 home matches in which they’ve trailed at the half and Empoli have lost all 5 such away matches.

5) The Boston Celtics open their second round series at home against the Orlando Magic. The Celtics will be without Kevin Garnett and Leon Powe who have both gone down with knee injuries. That leaves Kendrick Perkins, Glen 'Big Baby' Davis, and Brian Scalabrine to contain the inside presence of Dwight Howard, the outside presence of Hedo Turkoglu, and the inside-outside game of Rashard Lewis. The Celtics are wise to focus on their mismatches in the front court instead of relying on their advantages in the back court. Rajon Rondo should be able to dominate the game on both ends against Rafer Alston so look for him to have another all-star series. With Courtney Lee out the Magic will rely on J.J. Redick and Mickael Pietrus at shooting guard. The key for Boston will be keeping their big men out of foul trouble while still playing physical defense against Turkoglu and Howard and for Ray Allen, and Rondo, to exploit their matchups at the guard positions. Paul Pierce should do a fine job on Lewis, limiting his drives to the basket and his open three point attempts. Orlando will need to bother Pierce, Allen, and Rondo to have a chance here, but they'll have to do it without forgetting about Perkins and Davis who are quite capable of scoring upwards of 20 points. With the Celtics' bench featuring Eddie House, Stephon Marbury, Tony Allen, and Mikki Moore they are the deeper team and I expect that to make the difference should the game end up being close.

6) The St. Louis Cardinals return home, facing the Philadelphia Phillies in an attempt to keep pace with the Dodgers for best record in MLB. The Cardinals will start pitcher Kyle Lohse who is having a terrific start to the season. In 5 games started he has recorded an ERA of 1.97 to go with a WHIP of 1.03. His ground out to fly out ratio of 0.97 speaks to his control and ability to keep his pitches in the lower half of the strike zone. In 119 at bats the Phillies' current roster has a batting average of .202 and a .311 slugging average. Lohse has a sore knee, but he had that and a stomach virus when he faced the Braves last week and pitched 6 scoreless innings while giving up only 4 hits. The Phillies have struggled a bit at the plate in their last three games, batting .235 and slugging .373 while scoring only 11 runs. Every pitcher has a bad day, but Lohse's houdou figures to keep the Phillies' bats aslumber. That doesn't speak well for Joe Blanton who required a ton of run support just to garner two 'no decisions' in his first 4 starts. His 8.41 ERA is fairly bad, and his 1.97 WHIP is even worse. He stats from previous years suggest he is overdue for a solid performance, but it's unlikely he can match Lohse's game score. Philadelphia can win games by shelling the opposition's bullpen, but St. Louis can match them in that aspect. Truly, the only way I can see Philadelphia winning today is if Lohse's arm turns to rubber and the Cardinals' bullpen suddenly turns south.

8) Well, lesson learned from yesterday is that it's better to look at a players' production from the season and playoffs overall, rather than just the tiny subset of playoff games. Looking at the red line showing the distribution for Yao over the season and the yellow line showing Kobe's regular season distribution it appears Yao averages slightly more points and rebounds in away games than Kobe averages points in home games. Taking a look at the bar charts it's clear Yao has more games over 30 and that Kobe is the player who's shown he can defer on scoring and end up with under 20 points. In this Game 1 it will be interesting to see if Andrew Bynum gets his starting job back from Lamar Odom. I would not be surprised to see the offense run through Pau Gasol, and the risk with taking Ming here is that the Lakers will be trying to get Ming to commit fouls. The Rockets will rely on Shane Battier and, at times, Ron Artest to slow Bryant down. Look for Kobe to get his teammates involved on offense, and for that role to continue until the Lakers are down. Look for the Lakers to front Yao and defend him one-on-one until he turns inside to move towards the basket or take that fall away jumper. If the Lakers are quick with bringing the double team over Yao will find it difficult to score points. This should be close, but you never know when one player will be taken out of the offense.

May 3rd, 2009 Picks

Yarrrghghhgkslsk! Yarghklsk being a traditional Scythian pirate lament… unlike Manny Pacquiao avoided being drawn inside like 97.3% of the opponents Hatton had defeated I was drawn in to the Seattle Mariners like 97.3% of streakers who were defeated. I really thought Washburn would get a bit more support than all that. My first pick was Manchester City to win. They were aggressive right from the start and Calceido scored off of a rebound from in close at 27’. Robinho did the same at 34’ after a shot by Vincent Kompany was blocked, scoring from about 10 yards out in the center of the box. In first half injury time Blackburn Rovers were assessed a penalty for handball. Elano converted to make the score 3-0 Manchester City at the half. Blackburn Rovers started to realize they’d need a point in at least one of their final matches to avoid relegation and were extremely aggressive, but in their multitude of shots (10 in the second half) they were only able to get one goal, from Keith Andrews at 66’. The final score was Manchester City 3, Blackburn Rovers 1.

My second pick was the aforementioned Seattle Mariners. Trevor Cahill had a fairly good outing, allowing 1 earned run off of 7 hits in 6 innings pitched. His three walks to one strikeout were terrible but not costly as the Mariners struggled to string together hits. Jarrod Washburn had a great outing with 1 earned run off of 5 hits, while striking out 6 batters and walking 2. The Mariners’ bullpen could not hold on to the 2-1 lead they inherited, however, as they gave up one run each in the 8^th and 9^th innings. Mark Lowe gave up three hits and the tying run in the 8^th and David Aardsma, normally a solid closer, walked Crosby onto base, then gave up a pop fly that allowed him to advance, and a single to Petit that drove home the go-ahead run. Michael Wuertz held on for Oakland, retiring the three batters he faced. So yarghklsk, the picks, they await.

1) Cagliari @ Palermo – Cagliari win or draw
2) Athletic Bilbao @ Sporting Gijon – Athletic Bilbao win
3) Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers – Cleveland
4) Dwyane Wade vs. Joe Johnson – Wade pts.
5) Houston Astros @ Atlanta Braves – Houston
6) Tiger Woods vs. Rest Of Field – Woods wins the tournament
7) Ryan Getzlaf vs. Niklas Lidstrom – Lidstrom goals and ast.
8) Dirk Nowitzki vs. Carmelo Anthony – Anthony pts.
9) Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners – Seattle
10) Carolina Hurricanes @ Boston Bruins – Boston
11) Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers – Texas

Analysis
1) Cagliari Calcio will be without their captain in the backfield, Diego Lopez. This could be a major detriment to their side, but they won 3-2 away at Juventus and tied 1-1 away at Internazionale Milan back in January, both games with Lopez missing. U.S. Città di Palermo will be missing defenders Moris Carrozieri and Cesare Bovo, both of whom have started in over two thirds of Palermo’s matches. Looking at goals scored, home for Palermo and away for Cagliari, I would have to give Palermo the advantage, but when it comes to goals allowed Cagliari’s chances of winning or drawing look much better. Cagliari have scored at least one goal in 75% of their games so limiting Palermo to one goal will be the task for the Isolani. Palermo is 12-0-4 (W-D-L) at home with a plus-11 goal differential in Serie A competition this year while Cagliari is 4-4-8 with a minus-4 differential in away matches.

2) No major injury concerns plague either Athletic Bilbao or Sporting Gijon for this match. Sporting Gijon are fighting to avoid relegation after being promoted from the Segunda Liga last season. Athletic Bilbao have bigger things on their mind with a Copa del Rey final against Barçelona looming in just over a weeks time. On the one hand it’s perfect motivation for Sporting Gijon to be aggressive and overpowering and for Athletic Bilbao to eventually concede the match with lacklustre play. On the other hand, Athletic Bilbao is playing in their domestic Cup final against Barçelona and Sporting Gijon are about to be relegated back to the Segunda Liga after one season in the Primera Liga. In the Copa del Rey Athletic Bilbao eliminated Sporting Gijon with a 2-1 win away at Gijon back in January. Athletic Bilbao should win this game with superior quality to their side, but Sporting Gijon will not go down without a fight. Hell, I might even take Gijon myself, as the odds are truly even for either side to win.

4) The graphical analysis can be found in an earlier post. Suffice it to say that Joe Johnson has been having some of his worst games of the year in this series and Dwyane Wade has won this prop in 5 of the 6 games and pushed in the other.

5) The Atlanta Braves have the better bats with .255 season batting average and .384 season slugging average. Compare those with the Astros’ season batting numbers, .249 and .315. In their past three games Atlanta’s and Houston’s batting numbers are nearly identical, however. Their bullpens are both prone to give up runs, with Houston’s being especially prone to home runs having given up 13 in 84 relief innings pitched. The deciding factor for me here is Wandy Rodriguez on the mound for the Astros versus Jo-Jo Reyes for the Braves. Rodriguez has a 1.69 ERA and 1.03 WHIP so far this season, and Atlanta has hit well off of him in the past so I don’t expect him to shut down the Braves by any means. Jo-Jo Reyes has a 4.26 ERA and 1.11 WHIP so far this season with the Astros also hitting well off of him. Last season Reyes’ WHIP was 1.65 so I expect him to give up a few more runs to the Astros.

8) Once again the bulk of my analysis can be found here. Essentially the Spurs gave Dirk a lot of trouble and his playoff production has dropped significantly from what he was doing just in road games during the season. The Nuggets should give him just as much trouble, though it’s worth it to note that Nowitzki’s season high came in a game at Denver. Anthony has had no problems scoring against Dallas during the regular season and his scoring has increased during the playoffs so I have to take Anthony here.

11) John Danks is starting on the mound for the White Sox tonight in his first start since being knocked around for 4 innings against the Seattle Mariners. Danks picked up his first loss, a 9-1 loss for the Sox, giving up 5 earned runs on 8 hits. Even after that performance his ERA for the season is a very respectable 2.74 and his WHIP remains at 1.09. Matt Harrison is treading the opposite path, coming off his best start of the season after a horrendous start. He picked up his first win of the season, a 6-4 win over the Orioles, last Monday. It was a good thing he had the Rangers’ bats behind him as he gave up 4 runs on 7 hits in 7 innings. He struck out 3 batters and walked only 1, making it his first game of the season striking out more batters than he’d walked. Many people consider the White Sox to have one of the better batting orders in MLB, but if the White Sox are good then the Rangers are truly fearsome. They bat .273 on the season and slug an incredible .501 over 23 games. At Rangers Ballpark they are even better, batting .307 and slugging .556. The White Sox have a more solid bullpen when it comes to ERA and home runs given up per inning pitched and they’ll need that advantage against the Rangers tonight. If Danks gets knocked around again, and Harrison continues to find his groove, the White Sox could very well find themselves on the losing end of this series. I’m more inclined to think Harrison gets abused and taken out after 5 innings while Danks dials back in for this game.
UPDATE: The White Sox are missing a number of starters, including Jermaine Dye and Pierzynski. Their lead off man will be Jayson Nix, who is not even fully healthy and has posted poor numbers in the big leagues anyways. Corky Miller is batting .267 in 15 at bats and Wilson Betemit is batting .292 in 24 at bats, and both have shown an ability to rack up the total bases. I would still take the White Sox here.

Dirk vs. 'Melo; Sharp vs. Smooth; Soft vs. Soft

Above are plots identical to those used in the Wade vs. Johnson prop. The Poisson estimations use Nowitzki's road games and Anthony's home games as their basis. The same with the bar graphs. One can see that during the regular season Nowitzki averaged nearly 6 more points on the road than Anthony did at home. One can also see that Nowitzki's production in the playoffs has not even been close to what it was during the regular season. Anthony, on the other hand, has picked up his production in the playoffs. Both players scored over 20 points per game during the season when they met head-to-head. One interesting note is that Nowitzki's season high of 44 came in a game at Denver and that Anthony's season high of 43 came in a game at Dallas. Nowitzki's struggles in the playoffs can be forgiven a bit because Gregg Popovich's Spurs always have good strategies for containing their opponents' stars, but the Nuggets will present just as many, if not more problems, for Nowitzki to contend with.

Dwyane Wade vs. Joe Johnson - What's Wrong With Joe?

The graphs above show two things for both Dwyane Wade and Joe Johnson. The bar charts show how many games Wade scored a certain number of points on the road this season and in the playoffs, and for Johnson the number of points, rebounds, and assists he accumulated in home games during the season. The vertical axis is the number of games. The line graphs show the Poisson distribution of games with a certain number of points over a large number of games. The additional line graph for Joe Johnson shows the Poisson distribution of his points, rebounds, and assists over a large number of games based on his production at home in the playoffs. One can see that Johnson's numbers have dropped considerably from his regular season numbers and that during the regular season he could very well be expected to outscore Wade in this prop. In the playoffs Wade has scored more points in 5 of the 6 games played, and had the same number of points as Johnson's points, rebounds, and assists in the other game. It's possible Johnson might break out of his funk, but it's at least as likely that Wade will take over and dominate in this make or break Game 7.

May 2nd, 2009 Picks

2-1-0 day, which is pretty disappointing, considering the many fine picks available. My first pick was Sean O’Hair to card a lower front 9 score. I was asleep for this one, which is really for the best on these golf props. Exploring a suddenly labyrinthine childhood home is a helluva lot more fun than hoping Golfer X misses his 20 foot birdie putt. Sabbatini had a terrible start to his round hitting a double bogey on the 1^st hole and following it with a bogey on the 2^nd. He gained two strokes when O’Hair bogeyed the 4^th and Sabbatini birdied. Things got even more interesting on the par 5 7^th when O’Hair birdied but Sabbatini made a tough shot for eagle to even things up. Fortunately, it was Sabbatini who melted down, missing par putts on the final two holes. O’Hair won the prop 36 strokes to 38.

My second pick was Tiger Woods to card the lower second round score. Yes, I’m kicking myself somewhat for not going with the ‘gimmie’ of the day, but not too badly since Graham Taylor pitched a terrific game and Harden was pretty mundane. Woods came out swinging, and how! He came out swinging as if he’d just gotten off one of those tire swings where you twist the rope and let it spin round and round. He repeated his first round performance by missing most every fairway and his mid-range game was quite a bit worse as he birdied only three holes and those were canceled out with three bogeys. Furyk played a fantastic round, eagling the short par 4 14^th with a nice chip shot. He also birdied 6 other holes and would have been in the lead if not for two other bogeys. To add salt to the wound David Toms managed to stay at 1 under par, also beating Woods’ score. Furyk hit a 66, six strokes better than Tiger.

My final pick of the day was the Chicago White Sox, behind the pitching of Mark Buehrle. Buehrle was pretty damn good, but a solo home run against the first batter he faced, Ian Kinsler, and two more runs in the 3^rd inning put the Sox down 3-0 early. He finished well, allowing only 7 hits in 6 innings and recording an infinite SO:BB ratio with 2 strikeouts and 0 walks. Graham Taylor also did a terrific job, limiting the White Sox to one hit in the first 5 innings, and forcing ground outs on 7 of his first 9 outs. Taylor started out the 6^th inning well, striking out Ramirez and forcing Podsednik to ground out. It got bad after that as Getz and Fields singled, then advanced on a wild pitch before he walked Carlos Quentin to load the bases. Derek Holland came in to relieve him but gave up a grand double to Jim Thome, driving home all three runs and tying the game at 3-3. In the 7^th inning Holland gave up a single to Podsednik and a triple to Getz which gave the White Sox the 4-3 lead. Dotel and Linebrink held on for the Sox in the 7^th and 8^th innings and Bobby Jenks completed the save. So onward, upward, and whirling to the next picks.

1) Roger Federer vs. Novak Djokovic – Djokovic
2) Blackburn Rovers @ Manchester City – Manchester City win
3) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals – Pittsburgh
4) Phil Mickelson vs. Tiger Woods – Mickelson cards a lower 3rd round score
5) Camilo Villegas vs. Jim Furyk – Furyk cards a lower 3rd round score
6) New York Mets @ Philadelphis Phillies – New York
7) Dunkirk vs. Friesan Fire – Friesan Fire has a better finish
8) ‘I Want Revenge’ Final Position: 1st, 2nd, or 3rd vs. 4th or worse – 1st, 2nd, or 3rd
9) Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers – Arizona
10) Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays – Tampa Bay
11) Jeff Gordon vs. Jimmie Johnson – Gordon
12) Derrick Rose vs. Rajon Rondo – Rondo pts.
13) Chicago Blackhawks @ Vancouver Canucks – Vancouver
14) Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners – Seattle
15) Manny Pacquiao vs. Rick Hatton – Pacquiao wins by KO, TKO, or DQ

Analysis
1) Roger Federer is ranked #2 in the world and Novak Djokovic is ranked #3 at the moment. Novak Djokovic defeated Federer in their latest matchup 3-6 6-2 6-3 on hard court at the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Miami. You can look up each players year-to-date statistics and their head-to-head results on atptour.com. For your convenience here’s a link to Roger Federer’s profile and a link to Novak Djokovic’s profile. Djokovic is favored to win the match with 8:11 odds on him while Federer is at 11:10.

2) Manchester City have been playing very well lately, their latest result a 2-1 win away at Everton. Even more uplifting is the fact that Shaun Wright-Phillips and Craig Bellamy missed and Manchester City were still able to be aggressive and fairly dominate the match. Blackburn Rovers have also played well recently, with a 2-1 home win over Wigan Athletic most recently. Their away form has not been on the same level with a 0-1 loss at Stoke City and successive 0-4 losses to Liverpool and Arsenal most recently. Blackburn will be missing a number of players, most notably Jason Roberts and a number of other forwards, forcing defender Christopher Samba to play at that position. Manchester City are 11-0-6 (W-D-L) at home with a +19 goal differential while Blackburn Rovers are 4-4-9 away with a -15 differential. Check out RJtheGator’s blog for another perspective. Manchester City are truly better than their record shows and I think they have too much talent to miss out on three points at home against the Rovers.

3) The Pittsburgh Penguins travel to Washington D.C. to face the Washington Capitals in Game 1 of their second round series. The Capitals were 3-0-1 against the Penguins during the regular season, scoring 4.50 goals per game against Marc-Andre Fleury. The Capitals are starting Simeon Varlamov for this series who has performed remarkably well, allowing 1.40 goals in 6 games against the Rangers along with a .952 SV%. The Penguins defeated the Philadelphia Flyers in 6 games in their first round series, allowing 2.67 goals per game. Fleury recorded a .918 SV% on 194 shots against him. The Penguins scored an average of 3 goals in ithose 6 games and went 2-1-0 on the road in the series. Washington averaged 2.71 goals in their 7 game series and went 2-2-0 at home. If Simeon Varlamov can keep up the good work and Washington can limit Pittsburgh’s offense they should win this game, but I think Varlamov will be around .910 in saves and Pittsburgh wins in overtime.

5) This is the fourth time Jim Furyk has made the cut at Quail Hollow and the third time for Camilo Villegas. Click on the names for Jim Furyk’s and Camilo Villegas’ 2009 stats. Furyk has been more accurate off of the tee and has a slightly better scoring average than Villegas, but they are very well-matched statistically. In the 6 rounds Furyk has played after the cut at Quail Hollow he has carded scores of 71, 72, 68, 71, 69, and 66. In Villegas’ 4 post-cut rounds he has carded scores of 77, 75, 72, 72. You can also check out this hole-by-hole tour of Quail Hollow to see how difficult the course, and the greens especially, can be. I see Villegas as the more likely golfer to be overwhelmed and play a poor round.

6) In the past three years Jamie Moyer is 3-3 in 11 starts against the Mets and Oliver Perez is 1-3 in 9 starts against the Phillies. Perez has had a very poor start to his season with a 9.31 ERA and 1.97 WHIP and I expect him to get back on track in this game. The Mets have been batting .280 and slugging .480 in their last three games and I think they’ll begin to see more reward for their hitting than they have so far. If Perez does not have a good game the Phillies' bats are quite capable of outpacing the Mets'.

9) Dan Haren is starting for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and there is no other pitcher they’d rather have on the mound against a surging Brewers team. In his first 4 starts he’s recorded a 1.54 ERA and a WHIP of 0.74. Last season he had an incredible 5:1 SO:BB ratio and this year it’s even better at nearly 7:1. Braden Looper is starting for Milwaukee and he has been a strong point of their rotation this year. Last season he recorded an ERA of 4.16 and a WHIP of 1.31. Both pitchers have not quite mastered their control to keep their pitches in the lower half of the strike zone as each have gotten more fly outs than ground outs each season of their careers. Both teams are batting well, but not spectacular, with Milwaukee at .240 and Arizona at .234. Neither team’s bullpen is significantly better than the others, so whoever manages to score off of these starting pitchers will have a major advantage.

12) The Bulls’ role players, such as Kirk Hinrich, Brad Miller, and John Salmons, have all been stepping up big time in this series. That means the Celtics will not be able to focus on any one player. The Celtics’ best bet is to let Paul Pierce take on the task of containing Rose. Even if they choose to leave Rondo on Rose I like the Celtics’ physical defense to help in limiting his production. Rajon Rondo is so quick he should be able to get close range shots time and again. The bulk of my analysis can be found in my previous post.

15) Manny Pacquiao is 48-3-2 with 36 of those wins coming by knockout. Ricky Hatton is 45-1-0 with 32 knockouts. Even though Hatton is taller than Pacquiao by an inch Pacquiao has a longer reach, by two inches. You can check out Pacquiao’s stats and Hatton’s stats by clicking on their names. Vegas has Pacquiao as a large favorite at 10/27 and Hatton at 21/10.

Ragin' Rondo vs. The Rosenfeld Railroad (Part 2)

Above are the discrete Poisson distribution of points for Derrick Rose and Rajon Rondo. One can see that Rose has picked up his production in the playoffs by about 2 points to around 20 points per game. He scored 36 and 23 in the first two games, then was limited to 10, 9, and 14 points before scoring 28 in the Bulls' double overtime Game 6 victory. I think he'll be aggressive in Game 7, and with Hinrich, Ben Gordon, and even Brad Miller emerging as threats inside and out the Celtics will be forced to defend him one-on-one. I would expect at least 20 points from Rose, but also that the Celtics' physical defense will keep him from scoring more than 25.

Rajon Rondo averaged only 14 points per game this season when he played 35 minutes or more, but many of those games were with Kevin Garnett on the court. Without Garnett one can see that Rondo averaged closer to 19 points per game. In these playoffs Rondo has also increased his scoring a couple of points to 21 points per game. He's been very consistent in this series, scoring 19 to 28 points in the first five games before scoring only 8 in Game 6 while doling out 19 assists. He is the fastest player on the court and should be able to get shots, albeit tough ones, off at will from close range. The Celtics cannot expect Ray Allen and Paul Pierce to score so many points and win the game so I can see Rondo being aggressive and scoring 25 or more here.

May 1st, 2009 Picks

1-2-0 day for me. My first pick was Retief Goosen to card a lower front 9 score. Cabrera took the first lead with a birdie on the par-5 fifth hole. On the next par 5, however, Cabrera bogeyed and Goosen hit his first birdie of the front 9 to take a one stroke lead. Goosen birdied again on the 8th hole to take a two stroke lead into the final hole. Both players hit par and Goosen won the prop with 34 strokes to 36 for Cabrera.

My second pick was the Texas Rangers. Braden and Padilla did well for the first five innings, giving up zero runs and less than a half dozen hits apiece. Padilla loaded the bases after hitting Suzuki with a pitch but then struck out Buck to end one inning. Braden also displayed some fine pitching in a tight spot, stirking out Andrus after walking Teagarden in the 4^th inning to load the bases. Padilla gave up the first run on a sacrifice fly in the 5^th, and then loaded the bases after giving up three consecutive singles before being relieved. Guardado proceeded to walkin the next run, and the second reliever, Jennings, gave up a third run before retiring the side. A lead off homer by Blalock brought the Rangers within two runs, but Holliday got it right back with a solo shot of his own in the 8^th. Young hit a double, but was thrown out trying to stretch it into a triple leaving Jones to hit a solo home run in the 9^th instead of a two run homer. Wuertz held on for the save and the Athletics won 4-2.

My third pick of the day was the Boston Red Sox. Two words. Matt Garza. OK, three words. Matt Garza, domination. Garza went into the seventh inning with a perfect game before Ellsbury hit a single to lead off the 7^th. It was the only hit Boston would get in their 27 at bats. In the meantime the Rays were getting busy abusing Beckett, Hunter Jones, and Lopez to the tune of 18 hits and 13 runs. Evan Longoria led the way with three hits and 4 RBIs. A terrific game for the Rays and a nightmare for those who picked the Sox. And now on to another day of mostly losing picks. Perhaps.

1) Rory Sabbatini vs. Sean O’Hair – O’Hair cards a lower front 9 score
2) Jim Furyk or David Toms vs. Tiger Woods – Woods cards a lower 2nd round score
3) Florida Marlins @ Chicago Cubs – Chicago
4) Hannover 96 @ VfL Bochum – VfL Bochum win
5) Detroit Red Wings (v. Anaheim) vs. Boston Bruins (v. Carolina) – Detroit goals
6) New York Mets @ Philadelpia Phillies – New York
7) Kyle Busch vs. Carl Edwards – Busch has a better final position
8) Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays – Tampa Bay
9) Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat – Miami
10) Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers – Chicago
11) San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers – Los Angeles

The streak of 12 straight Vegas underdogs winning on SFTC ended tonight when the Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Diamondbacks 4-1.

Analysis
1) The ex-Wachovia Championship has been played at Quail Hollow since 2003. Some of the more recent changes made to the course since then are described in this hole-by-hole tour. The greens are sharply sloped and the fairways are lined with trees making driving accuracy a necessity, unlike on other courses where the rough is the main hazard off the fairway. Rory Sabbatini has a putting average of 1.716, driving accuracy of 61.02%, and a scoring average of 70.18. He also averages 4.03 birdies per round. Sean O’Hair has a putting average of 1.742, driving accuracy of 65.36%, and a scoring average of 69.57 while averaging 4.34 birdies. In 8 rounds at Quail Hollow O’Hair has an average front 9 score of -0.375 and a median score of 0.5 over par. His best score has been 4 under par and his worst 2 over par. Rory Sabbitini has played 23 rounds at Quail Hollow, averaging even par on the front 9. His front 9 scores have ranged from 5 under par to 5 over par. After playing a round his front 9 score has improved in the succeeding round 5 times out of 16 and otherwise stayed the same or worsened. This is very close compared to previous front 9 props, but of the two Sabbatini is the one who has shown a propensity for melting down on the front 9 at Quail Hollow.

3) The Cubs have struggled at the plate in their last three games; with a .214 batting average and .369 slugging average it’s fair to say they’re in a slump. Graham Taylor is pitching for the Marlins today. In his first and only MLB start, against the Phillies, he gave up 4 hits for 4 earned runs while walking 6 batters and striking out 2 in 3²/₃ innings. Florida hasn’t been incredibly hot from the plate either, with a .233 batting average and .417 slugging average in their past three games. Against Rich Harden those numbers can be expected to go down after this game. Harden has a 3.86 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in four starts this season. In 25 starts last year he had a 2.07 ERA and 1.06 WHIP so one may expect him to do very well against the Marlins. The Cubs have a ‘bad news’ bullpen with a 5.37 ERA and the Marlins’ bullpen has done well but still give up plenty of bases with a 1.55 WHIP and 4.44 ERA. Chicago has been whiffing, but the pitching strongly favors them, and they are at Wrigley Field.

3) Jim Furyk and David Toms’ median scores at Quail Hollow are both 71, while Tiger Woods’ median score there is 69. Last year Furyk followed up an opening round 71 with a 67. The year before that his opening round 71 was followed by a 79. Somewhere in between those two scores is most likely today and the clear favorite here is Woods.

4) VfL Bochum is not a terrific team, currently 4 points behind Hannover 96 in the tables. Hannover 96 is by far the worst away side in the Bundesliga, with an 0-2-12 (W-D-L) record, they have collected 2 points in 14 matches while scoring 11 goals and conceding 40. Those 40 goals are 10 worse than any other club in the Bundesliga. VfL Bochum have scored 2 or more goals in 8 of their 15 home matches. Normally I would never pick against the win or draw team when their opponents are actually below them in the tables and here Hannover 96 is not a bad pick since VfL Bochum allow nearly 2 goals per home match. Hannover 96 score less than 1 per away match, however, and if there is any team Bochum should beat by scoring 2 or 3 goals it is Hannover 96.

5) Anaheim did a tremendous job stopping a strong, yet slumping, San Jose offense. The Sharks had been averaging 2.3 goals per game in the final 10 games of the season, but were limited to 1.5 goals per game in their series with the Ducks while being shut out twice. Jonas Hiller had a SV% of .957 for the series. Carolina did a pretty good job on New Jersey in their playoff series as well, limiting the Devils to 2.1 goals per game. New Jersey had been slumping even more down the stretch than San Jose, however, averaging 1.9 goals per game in their last 10 of the season. Cam Ward recorded a SV% of .938 in their series. Detroit averaged 4.5 goals per game in their series against Columbus, while Boston averaged 4.3 goals. I think Hiller and Ward will both come back to earth a bit in their second round series’ and I’m just guessing that Detroit will come out a little sharper than the Bruins.

9) Miami has the home court advantage and all the motivation in the world in an elimination Game 6. This matchup really depends on the players surrounding Dwyane Wade. If Udonis Haslem and Daequan Cook can step up their intensity on the defensive end, and Jermaine O’Neal can step it up on the offensive end then Miami has a very good chance of winning this game. The Atlanta Hawks will be without a fully healthy Al Horford, but have Zaza Pachulia who has been a tremendous contributor in this series. Miami has payback on their minds and Atlanta has the knowledge they have another chance to close this one out at home in a Game 7.

11) San Diego will be hoping their ace, Jake Peavy, can help them against a Los Angeles Dodgers team who have been unbeatable at Dodger Stadium this year. Peavy recorded a 2.85 ERA and 1.19 WHIP last year, but has struggled a bit in his last two games, allowing 11 runs in 11 innings to go with a WHIP of 1.82. With the Dodgers batting .370 and slugging .610 at Dodger Stadium in 7 games there this year it looks like Peavy has a lofty task ahead of him. Clayton Kershaw will be starting for Los Angeles. He has struggled even more than Peavy in his last two starts, allowing 15 earned runs in 9 innings which is fairly atrocious. Both pitchers should be expected to get a handle on their delivery. Unless one or the other has another off game the Dodgers’ batting gives them the advantage in this game.