May 1st, 2009 Picks

1-2-0 day for me. My first pick was Retief Goosen to card a lower front 9 score. Cabrera took the first lead with a birdie on the par-5 fifth hole. On the next par 5, however, Cabrera bogeyed and Goosen hit his first birdie of the front 9 to take a one stroke lead. Goosen birdied again on the 8th hole to take a two stroke lead into the final hole. Both players hit par and Goosen won the prop with 34 strokes to 36 for Cabrera.

My second pick was the Texas Rangers. Braden and Padilla did well for the first five innings, giving up zero runs and less than a half dozen hits apiece. Padilla loaded the bases after hitting Suzuki with a pitch but then struck out Buck to end one inning. Braden also displayed some fine pitching in a tight spot, stirking out Andrus after walking Teagarden in the 4^th inning to load the bases. Padilla gave up the first run on a sacrifice fly in the 5^th, and then loaded the bases after giving up three consecutive singles before being relieved. Guardado proceeded to walkin the next run, and the second reliever, Jennings, gave up a third run before retiring the side. A lead off homer by Blalock brought the Rangers within two runs, but Holliday got it right back with a solo shot of his own in the 8^th. Young hit a double, but was thrown out trying to stretch it into a triple leaving Jones to hit a solo home run in the 9^th instead of a two run homer. Wuertz held on for the save and the Athletics won 4-2.

My third pick of the day was the Boston Red Sox. Two words. Matt Garza. OK, three words. Matt Garza, domination. Garza went into the seventh inning with a perfect game before Ellsbury hit a single to lead off the 7^th. It was the only hit Boston would get in their 27 at bats. In the meantime the Rays were getting busy abusing Beckett, Hunter Jones, and Lopez to the tune of 18 hits and 13 runs. Evan Longoria led the way with three hits and 4 RBIs. A terrific game for the Rays and a nightmare for those who picked the Sox. And now on to another day of mostly losing picks. Perhaps.

1) Rory Sabbatini vs. Sean O’Hair – O’Hair cards a lower front 9 score
2) Jim Furyk or David Toms vs. Tiger Woods – Woods cards a lower 2nd round score
3) Florida Marlins @ Chicago Cubs – Chicago
4) Hannover 96 @ VfL Bochum – VfL Bochum win
5) Detroit Red Wings (v. Anaheim) vs. Boston Bruins (v. Carolina) – Detroit goals
6) New York Mets @ Philadelpia Phillies – New York
7) Kyle Busch vs. Carl Edwards – Busch has a better final position
8) Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays – Tampa Bay
9) Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat – Miami
10) Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers – Chicago
11) San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers – Los Angeles

The streak of 12 straight Vegas underdogs winning on SFTC ended tonight when the Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Diamondbacks 4-1.

Analysis
1) The ex-Wachovia Championship has been played at Quail Hollow since 2003. Some of the more recent changes made to the course since then are described in this hole-by-hole tour. The greens are sharply sloped and the fairways are lined with trees making driving accuracy a necessity, unlike on other courses where the rough is the main hazard off the fairway. Rory Sabbatini has a putting average of 1.716, driving accuracy of 61.02%, and a scoring average of 70.18. He also averages 4.03 birdies per round. Sean O’Hair has a putting average of 1.742, driving accuracy of 65.36%, and a scoring average of 69.57 while averaging 4.34 birdies. In 8 rounds at Quail Hollow O’Hair has an average front 9 score of -0.375 and a median score of 0.5 over par. His best score has been 4 under par and his worst 2 over par. Rory Sabbitini has played 23 rounds at Quail Hollow, averaging even par on the front 9. His front 9 scores have ranged from 5 under par to 5 over par. After playing a round his front 9 score has improved in the succeeding round 5 times out of 16 and otherwise stayed the same or worsened. This is very close compared to previous front 9 props, but of the two Sabbatini is the one who has shown a propensity for melting down on the front 9 at Quail Hollow.

3) The Cubs have struggled at the plate in their last three games; with a .214 batting average and .369 slugging average it’s fair to say they’re in a slump. Graham Taylor is pitching for the Marlins today. In his first and only MLB start, against the Phillies, he gave up 4 hits for 4 earned runs while walking 6 batters and striking out 2 in 3²/₃ innings. Florida hasn’t been incredibly hot from the plate either, with a .233 batting average and .417 slugging average in their past three games. Against Rich Harden those numbers can be expected to go down after this game. Harden has a 3.86 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in four starts this season. In 25 starts last year he had a 2.07 ERA and 1.06 WHIP so one may expect him to do very well against the Marlins. The Cubs have a ‘bad news’ bullpen with a 5.37 ERA and the Marlins’ bullpen has done well but still give up plenty of bases with a 1.55 WHIP and 4.44 ERA. Chicago has been whiffing, but the pitching strongly favors them, and they are at Wrigley Field.

3) Jim Furyk and David Toms’ median scores at Quail Hollow are both 71, while Tiger Woods’ median score there is 69. Last year Furyk followed up an opening round 71 with a 67. The year before that his opening round 71 was followed by a 79. Somewhere in between those two scores is most likely today and the clear favorite here is Woods.

4) VfL Bochum is not a terrific team, currently 4 points behind Hannover 96 in the tables. Hannover 96 is by far the worst away side in the Bundesliga, with an 0-2-12 (W-D-L) record, they have collected 2 points in 14 matches while scoring 11 goals and conceding 40. Those 40 goals are 10 worse than any other club in the Bundesliga. VfL Bochum have scored 2 or more goals in 8 of their 15 home matches. Normally I would never pick against the win or draw team when their opponents are actually below them in the tables and here Hannover 96 is not a bad pick since VfL Bochum allow nearly 2 goals per home match. Hannover 96 score less than 1 per away match, however, and if there is any team Bochum should beat by scoring 2 or 3 goals it is Hannover 96.

5) Anaheim did a tremendous job stopping a strong, yet slumping, San Jose offense. The Sharks had been averaging 2.3 goals per game in the final 10 games of the season, but were limited to 1.5 goals per game in their series with the Ducks while being shut out twice. Jonas Hiller had a SV% of .957 for the series. Carolina did a pretty good job on New Jersey in their playoff series as well, limiting the Devils to 2.1 goals per game. New Jersey had been slumping even more down the stretch than San Jose, however, averaging 1.9 goals per game in their last 10 of the season. Cam Ward recorded a SV% of .938 in their series. Detroit averaged 4.5 goals per game in their series against Columbus, while Boston averaged 4.3 goals. I think Hiller and Ward will both come back to earth a bit in their second round series’ and I’m just guessing that Detroit will come out a little sharper than the Bruins.

9) Miami has the home court advantage and all the motivation in the world in an elimination Game 6. This matchup really depends on the players surrounding Dwyane Wade. If Udonis Haslem and Daequan Cook can step up their intensity on the defensive end, and Jermaine O’Neal can step it up on the offensive end then Miami has a very good chance of winning this game. The Atlanta Hawks will be without a fully healthy Al Horford, but have Zaza Pachulia who has been a tremendous contributor in this series. Miami has payback on their minds and Atlanta has the knowledge they have another chance to close this one out at home in a Game 7.

11) San Diego will be hoping their ace, Jake Peavy, can help them against a Los Angeles Dodgers team who have been unbeatable at Dodger Stadium this year. Peavy recorded a 2.85 ERA and 1.19 WHIP last year, but has struggled a bit in his last two games, allowing 11 runs in 11 innings to go with a WHIP of 1.82. With the Dodgers batting .370 and slugging .610 at Dodger Stadium in 7 games there this year it looks like Peavy has a lofty task ahead of him. Clayton Kershaw will be starting for Los Angeles. He has struggled even more than Peavy in his last two starts, allowing 15 earned runs in 9 innings which is fairly atrocious. Both pitchers should be expected to get a handle on their delivery. Unless one or the other has another off game the Dodgers’ batting gives them the advantage in this game.