Odds On Most Any Matchup: 5dimesSkyBetBetFairBetUS

And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Sunday, May 3, 2009

Dwyane Wade vs. Joe Johnson - What's Wrong With Joe?

The graphs above show two things for both Dwyane Wade and Joe Johnson. The bar charts show how many games Wade scored a certain number of points on the road this season and in the playoffs, and for Johnson the number of points, rebounds, and assists he accumulated in home games during the season. The vertical axis is the number of games. The line graphs show the Poisson distribution of games with a certain number of points over a large number of games. The additional line graph for Joe Johnson shows the Poisson distribution of his points, rebounds, and assists over a large number of games based on his production at home in the playoffs. One can see that Johnson's numbers have dropped considerably from his regular season numbers and that during the regular season he could very well be expected to outscore Wade in this prop. In the playoffs Wade has scored more points in 5 of the 6 games played, and had the same number of points as Johnson's points, rebounds, and assists in the other game. It's possible Johnson might break out of his funk, but it's at least as likely that Wade will take over and dominate in this make or break Game 7.

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