click it
1-0-0 today as my baby streak entered the terrible twos and keeps yelling at me that “No!” it does not want to turn 3. Hopefully you checked here prior to 6:30pm or so when I changed away from Anaheim, Boston, and Colorado. My one and only pick for the day was L.A. Lakers winning margin. The game started out tightly contested with the Jazz forcing quite a few turnovers and knocking down shots. The first quarter ended with the score knotted at 26. The Lakers put some distance between them in the second quarter and went up by 13 while Deron Williams recorded 6 assists.
The third quarter had the Lakers extending their lead to 23 and Williams failing to get a single assist before being subbed out for Ronnie Price. This prop was put to bed… or so it seemed. At some point in the fourth quarter Price and Paul Millsap decided to up the intensity to ‘11’ and keyed a comeback by the Jazz that forced Jackson to put his starters back in the game. At one point the Lakers’ lead was down to 6 points and after a turnover Price and Williams ran down the court, with Price bouncing the ball to Deron. Williams missed the layup and from there the Lakers held on to win by 11 points. Williams did not record a single assist in the second half and finished the game with 6, easiliy in his bottom 10% of games this season. So on to the picks.
Oh yea, and 121-63?
1) Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. Simone Bolelli – Bolelli
2) Chelsea @ Barcelona – Barcelona win
3) Derrick Rose vs. Rajon Rondo – Rondo pts.
4) New York Rangers (lose by 1 or win) @ Washington Capitals (win by 2 plus) – Washington
5) New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers – Detroit
6) Florida Marlins @ New York Mets – New York
7) Carolina Hurricanes @ New Jersey Devils – New Jersey
8) Tampa Bay Rays @ Minnesota Twins – Minnesota
9) Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox – Seattle
10) Spurs (vs. Mavericks) vs. Trail Blazers (vs. Rockets) – Trail Blazers win margin
11) Chad Billingsley vs. San Francisco Giants – Giants total hits
Analysis
1) Philipp Kohlschreiber has more experience on the ATP Tour and is currently ranked 39th. Simone Bolelli is a relative newcomer and is ranked 41st. Bolelli has won four Challengers and Futures events on clay courts, but Kohlschreiber has won an ATP event on clay, in April of 2007. Just this year Bolelli played Rafael Nadal and won the first set, before losing the second set and the third set in a tiebreak. In their only previous meeting Bolelli defeated Kohlschreiber in straight sets, 6-4 6-3. You can read more about Kohlschreiber by clicking here and about Bolelli by clicking here. Their head-to-head comparison can be found here and you can click on each players’ name to see their career stats and playing histories.
2) Chelsea visit the Nou Camp to take on Barcelona in the first leg of the Champions League semi-finals. Barcelona are without defender Gabriel Milito who has been injured for a long while. Chelsea are without defenders Ashley Cole and Paulo Ferreira, which will force much of their backfield to play in unfamiliar positions as they attempt to stop Messi, Eto’o, and Henry. European sportsbooks have Barcelona at -167 while a Chelsea win is +450 and the draw is +260. Against a team like Barcelona the absence of Cole will be felt. I think Barcelona win 3-1 or 3-2, but a 2-2 draw is also a well favored result.
3) This is an interesting prop as Derrick Rose has been the more consistent of the two in scoring over 15 points during , while Rondo has been the more consistent during the series. Here are their distributions for games in which they played 35 minutes or more. One can see that Rose has a clear advantage. In games where Kevin Garnett has not played or in games against the Bulls, however, Rondo actually has a bit better odds. This should be very close unless one player or the other breaks out and scores 25 or more points. I think Rose has shown he can play poorly in this series, while Rondo has been nearly unstoppable for the Bulls. I give the advantage to Rondo based on that, but it should be within 5 points.
6) Ricky Nolasco and Livan Hernandez are starting for the Florida Marlins and New York Mets, respectively. Neither has gotten off to a good start this season with Nolasco recording a 6.86 ERA in 21 innings to go with a 1.67 WHIP and Hernandez pitching 16 innings to the tune of a 7.31 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. Last year Nolasco had a 3.52 ERA and 1.10 WHIP so he will be looking to return to that form tonight. The Mets have done well off of Nolasco in the past, however, with a career batting average of .351 and slugging average of .573. The Marlins have also batted well against Hernandez. Of the two Nolasco is more likely to pitch a good game and give the Marlins the lead. He will need help from the offense which has been hard to come by lately. In their last three games the Marlins are batting .178 and slugging .267. I think both teams will improve their batting numbers in this game, and the Marlins might take a small lead in a high scoring game, but their weak bullpen (5.16 ERA and 1.62 WHIP) will allow the Mets to win in the end.
9) Felix Hernandez for the Mariners faces off against John Danks for the White Sox in the second game of a doubleheader tonight. Hernandez is one of the best young pitchers, if not the best, in the major leagues. After a rocky start with a twisted ankle he’s pitched 13 innings while allowing only 1 run and 11 hits and striking out 13 batters to 4 walks. The White Sox have done well against Hernandez in the past, especially when he hasn’t been fully healthy. Last year he had a 9.00 ERA and 2.80 WHIP against the Sox. In 57 at bats the White Sox have batted .368 and slugged .825! John Danks has gotten off to a stellar start, pitching 19 innings and recording an ERA of 0.95 and WHIP of 0.84. The Mariners have done well against Danks in the past, however, batting over .300 in 59 at bats. This is supposed to be a pitchers’ duel but I think there be more than a few runs scored by each team. I think the Mariners have the stronger bullpen with Aardsma, White, and Kelly while the only top performers for the White Sox have been Linebrink and Jenks. If Aardsma, White, and Kelly do not pitch in the first game they should be able to carry the Marlins through in the second. It might also be a good idea to see who have the hot bats in the first game.
11) Since this involves the Giants’ total hits for the entire game rather than just off of Billingsley I have to give them the advantage here. Billingsley should be good for 5 to 9 strikeouts, but the Giants average 8 hits per game. If Billingsley pitches any less than his absolute best the Giants should outpace his strikeouts and then run away with the prop when the bullpens come in. I can see Billingsley having more strikeouts by the time he is relieved and the Giants then getting enough hits to push or win the prop by one at the end. Here are some probabilities to mull over while making your choice.
And So It Goes....
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Will Billingsley Get More Strikeouts Than The Giants Get Hits?
Above is a graph showing the probability of Chad Billingsley recording a specific number of strikeouts, of giving up a certain number of hits, and of the Giants recording an exact number of total hits. If it were strikeouts versus the number of hits the Giants got off of Billingsley then Billingsley would be a good pick, but the Giants will get at least 1 and probably 2 or 3 innings to add on to their total hits. The Dodgers have a strong bullpen with a combined WHIP this season of 1.14, but that is still enough to allow two or three more hits for the Giants at the end of the game.
Rondo vs. Rose - Who Will Score More Points
Below is a pair of graphs showing the distribution of points one could expect in a typical game from Derrick Rose and Rajon Rondo. I used the data from games where Rose and Rondo played 35 minutes or more to try and reduce the effect of low-scoring, low-minute games. As usual, click on the graph to get a close-up view.
You can see that Rondo's average is only slightly higher than his overall season average and that is due solely to his 36 point overtime performance in Game 1. Rondo averaged quite a bit less in games where he played 35 minutes or more, during the regular season. Without Kevin Garnett in the lineup his numbers are very comparable to Rose's and his numbers against the Bulls were at that level whether or not Garnett played. Overall I would say Rose is the safer bet since one would be counting on Rondo to 'take over the game', essentially. The Celtics defense is terrific, but has had a diffficult time slowing up Rose so far. If you think Game2/Game 3 Rose is due to show then Rondo is a great pick. If Game1/Game4 Rose shows up then it's more of a toss-up and Rose could still win with Rondo deferring to his teammates.
You can see that Rondo's average is only slightly higher than his overall season average and that is due solely to his 36 point overtime performance in Game 1. Rondo averaged quite a bit less in games where he played 35 minutes or more, during the regular season. Without Kevin Garnett in the lineup his numbers are very comparable to Rose's and his numbers against the Bulls were at that level whether or not Garnett played. Overall I would say Rose is the safer bet since one would be counting on Rondo to 'take over the game', essentially. The Celtics defense is terrific, but has had a diffficult time slowing up Rose so far. If you think Game2/Game 3 Rose is due to show then Rondo is a great pick. If Game1/Game4 Rose shows up then it's more of a toss-up and Rose could still win with Rondo deferring to his teammates.
Monday, April 27, 2009
April 27th, 2009 Picks
1-0-1 today so I have a newborn streak alive and well after some time in the ICU. My first pick was the Philadelphia Phillies. Jamie Moyer had another terrific outing as he pitched 6 innings allowing only 1 run and recording a WHIP of 1.33. He struck out 6 batters and walked only 1. Contrasting with this was Graham Taylor in his first major league start. He lasted 32/3 innings and gave up 4 earned runs in that time while walking 6 batters and striking out only 2. The Phillies were up 4-0 in the bottom of the 5th when Hanley Ramirez hit an RBI single to make it 4-1. The 7th and 8th innings were a nightmare for the Marlins’ bullpen as they gave up 9 runs total in the two innings, two of the runs being walked in with the bases loaded. The Phillies' bullpen held on to give Moyer his third win in four starts this season, Philadelphia 13, Florida 2.
My second pick was for Kevin Youkilis to record more runs, hits, and RBIs. Jeter and Youkilis each grounded out in their first at bat. Jeter reached first base on an error in his next at bat and Youkilis struck out swinging to keep their totals each at 0. Jeter singled in the top of the 5th and Youkilis was walked in the bottom of the inning. Youkilis was advanced to third on a ground rule double by Drew, but Bay struck out to end the inning. Jeter struck out in his final at bat and Youkilis hit a lead off single to record his first hit. Youkilis again advanced to third base, this time with zero outs, but Lowell hit a ground ball which was turned into a force out of Youkilis at home. In the end Jeter and Youkilis each had one hit, no runs, and no RBIs to end the prop in a push. The Red Sox won the game 4 to 1. So on to the picks.
1) Pakistan vs. Australia – Pakistan
2) Portsmouth @ Newcastle United – Portsmouth win or draw
3) St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves – Atlanta
4) Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Indians – Cleveland
5) Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Hornets – Denver
6) San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies – San Diego
7) Chicago Blackhawks @ Calgary Flames – Chicago
8) Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants – San Francisco
9) San Jose Sharks @ Anaheim Ducks – San Jose
10) Deron Williams vs. Los Angeles Lakers win margin – L.A. Lakers win margin
Analysis
1) Skybet has Australia favored at 4:6 and Pakistan at 11:10, which is about 57% for Australia and 43% for Pakistan. Australia will be resting three important players in anticipation of The Ashes, a test match between England and Australia. These players rested in the 1st ODI and Pakistan won a very close match. In the 2nd ODI Australia won in an even closer match. This looks like it will be another incredibly close match.
2) Newcastle United currently sit in the penultimate position at the bottom of the table, four points off of avoiding relegation this season. They have a couple of injury doubts with Steven Taylor, Joey Barton, and Jose Enrique who will be late decisions to the squad. Their absence would be a detriment to the defense and midfield for Newcastle United. Portsmouth also face a decision of whether to play David Nugent and Younes Kaboul, which could take away some of their attacking punch. Portsmouth are 6 points clear of relegationa nd relatively safe. Their away record is 2-7-7 (W-D-L) but they have been playing much better since Paul Hart took over as coach. Newcastle United are 4-6-6 at home and have also seen a boost with a new coach, Aaron Shearer. This could easily go Newcastle’s way with their being motivated to clear themselves of relegation, but I will not pick the tough form Paul Hart has installed in Portsmouth to lose here.
3) Joel Pineiro and Jair Jurrjens are the pitchers tonight for the St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves, respectively. Pineiro has had an average start to his recording a 4.12 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP which are not too far off from his numbers last season. Jurrjens has had a terrific start to the season with an ERA of 1.42 and a WHIP of 1.22. Last season he finished with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP so he is due to have a poor game, but not too poor, and not today I feel. Both teams are batting around their season averages recently with the Cardinals batting .278 and slugging .433 while the Braves are batting .252 and slugging .417 in their last three games. The Cardinals have not seen Jurrjens much before, though in one game last season Jurrjens pitched 7 innings, giving up 3 earned runs, walking 3 batters, and allowing 7 hits. Historically the Braves have done well against Pineiro, who recorded an 8.00 ERA and 1.78 WHIP against the Braves last season. The Braves’ current lineup have a combined career batting average of .304 and slugging average of .574. Overall the Cardinals have stronger relief pitching with a combined WHIP of 1.33 this season compared to a WHIP of 1.68 for the Braves. They have given up 11 home runs, however, while the Braves’ bullpen have only conceded 2. As long as Jurrjens does not get bombarded by the Cardinals today and the Braves can take a lead with the starting pitchers on the mound I think they will win this game at home.
6) Jason Hammel is scheduled to pitch for the Colorado Rockies after throwing for their bullpen in his first three games. He is reported to be limited to 70 pitches which would bring in a sub-par Rockies bullpen around the 5th or 6th inning, assuming he can keep his WHIP below 1.50. Chris Young is pitching for the Padres and he has had a fine start to the season with an ERA of 3.42 and a WHIP of 1.18 so far this season. The Rockies have a career batting average of .228 and a slugging average of .378 against Young so they’ll need a solid outing from Hammel to have a chance in this game. Fortunately, the Padres have struggled in their past three games with a batting average of .192 and a slugging average of .364. I expect them to improve those numbers in this game, but not by much. With a 1-4 record, 1.65 WHIP, 5.62 ERA, and only 3 saves on the season the Rockies’ bullpen cannot be expected to hold on to much of a lead and I think the Padres will be able to make up the difference in the final innings.
7) Dion Phaneuf was injured in Game 5 of this series which the Blackhawks won 5-1. That will hurt Calgary as he was one of their top defenders on the ice. Chicago has gone 7-2-0 against the Flames this season and in the playoffs so they have shown already they are capable of winning in Calgary. Mikka Kiprusoff has also been struggling in net for Calgary. He was pulled mid-way through the second period in Game 5 and has a .903 SV% for the series while allowing 16 goals. His backup, Curtis McElhinney did not have a great season, allowing over 3 goals per game and recording a .889 SV%. In the 30-plus minutes he was in during Game 5 he allowed 1 goal and turned away 9 shots. One can only imagine how he would fare against an aggressive Blackhawks attack. Chicago may be at a disadvantage on the road but they have the skill to overcome that and I see them closing out this series tonight unless Kiprusoff can put up the walls 35 to 40 times.
10) Deron Williams has averaged 10.74 assists in all 72 games he’s played this season and in the playoffs. He has averaged 12.0 assists in the 7 games he’s played against the Lakers this year. The Lakers have won by 13, 13, 13, and 10 points in L.A. and are coming off a 14 point win in Utah. Since 7 games is not a very large sample size I used Williams’ overall season average and a discrete Poisson distribution to estimate his chances in this prop. You can see the statistics here. Williams has had 14 or fewer assists in just over 90% of his games this year and can be expected to have 11 or 12 assists. I see Kobe asserting himself early in this game and the Lakers finishing the series on a high night with a 15 point win.
My second pick was for Kevin Youkilis to record more runs, hits, and RBIs. Jeter and Youkilis each grounded out in their first at bat. Jeter reached first base on an error in his next at bat and Youkilis struck out swinging to keep their totals each at 0. Jeter singled in the top of the 5th and Youkilis was walked in the bottom of the inning. Youkilis was advanced to third on a ground rule double by Drew, but Bay struck out to end the inning. Jeter struck out in his final at bat and Youkilis hit a lead off single to record his first hit. Youkilis again advanced to third base, this time with zero outs, but Lowell hit a ground ball which was turned into a force out of Youkilis at home. In the end Jeter and Youkilis each had one hit, no runs, and no RBIs to end the prop in a push. The Red Sox won the game 4 to 1. So on to the picks.
1) Pakistan vs. Australia – Pakistan
2) Portsmouth @ Newcastle United – Portsmouth win or draw
3) St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves – Atlanta
4) Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Indians – Cleveland
5) Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Hornets – Denver
6) San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies – San Diego
7) Chicago Blackhawks @ Calgary Flames – Chicago
8) Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants – San Francisco
9) San Jose Sharks @ Anaheim Ducks – San Jose
10) Deron Williams vs. Los Angeles Lakers win margin – L.A. Lakers win margin
Analysis
1) Skybet has Australia favored at 4:6 and Pakistan at 11:10, which is about 57% for Australia and 43% for Pakistan. Australia will be resting three important players in anticipation of The Ashes, a test match between England and Australia. These players rested in the 1st ODI and Pakistan won a very close match. In the 2nd ODI Australia won in an even closer match. This looks like it will be another incredibly close match.
2) Newcastle United currently sit in the penultimate position at the bottom of the table, four points off of avoiding relegation this season. They have a couple of injury doubts with Steven Taylor, Joey Barton, and Jose Enrique who will be late decisions to the squad. Their absence would be a detriment to the defense and midfield for Newcastle United. Portsmouth also face a decision of whether to play David Nugent and Younes Kaboul, which could take away some of their attacking punch. Portsmouth are 6 points clear of relegationa nd relatively safe. Their away record is 2-7-7 (W-D-L) but they have been playing much better since Paul Hart took over as coach. Newcastle United are 4-6-6 at home and have also seen a boost with a new coach, Aaron Shearer. This could easily go Newcastle’s way with their being motivated to clear themselves of relegation, but I will not pick the tough form Paul Hart has installed in Portsmouth to lose here.
3) Joel Pineiro and Jair Jurrjens are the pitchers tonight for the St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves, respectively. Pineiro has had an average start to his recording a 4.12 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP which are not too far off from his numbers last season. Jurrjens has had a terrific start to the season with an ERA of 1.42 and a WHIP of 1.22. Last season he finished with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP so he is due to have a poor game, but not too poor, and not today I feel. Both teams are batting around their season averages recently with the Cardinals batting .278 and slugging .433 while the Braves are batting .252 and slugging .417 in their last three games. The Cardinals have not seen Jurrjens much before, though in one game last season Jurrjens pitched 7 innings, giving up 3 earned runs, walking 3 batters, and allowing 7 hits. Historically the Braves have done well against Pineiro, who recorded an 8.00 ERA and 1.78 WHIP against the Braves last season. The Braves’ current lineup have a combined career batting average of .304 and slugging average of .574. Overall the Cardinals have stronger relief pitching with a combined WHIP of 1.33 this season compared to a WHIP of 1.68 for the Braves. They have given up 11 home runs, however, while the Braves’ bullpen have only conceded 2. As long as Jurrjens does not get bombarded by the Cardinals today and the Braves can take a lead with the starting pitchers on the mound I think they will win this game at home.
6) Jason Hammel is scheduled to pitch for the Colorado Rockies after throwing for their bullpen in his first three games. He is reported to be limited to 70 pitches which would bring in a sub-par Rockies bullpen around the 5th or 6th inning, assuming he can keep his WHIP below 1.50. Chris Young is pitching for the Padres and he has had a fine start to the season with an ERA of 3.42 and a WHIP of 1.18 so far this season. The Rockies have a career batting average of .228 and a slugging average of .378 against Young so they’ll need a solid outing from Hammel to have a chance in this game. Fortunately, the Padres have struggled in their past three games with a batting average of .192 and a slugging average of .364. I expect them to improve those numbers in this game, but not by much. With a 1-4 record, 1.65 WHIP, 5.62 ERA, and only 3 saves on the season the Rockies’ bullpen cannot be expected to hold on to much of a lead and I think the Padres will be able to make up the difference in the final innings.
7) Dion Phaneuf was injured in Game 5 of this series which the Blackhawks won 5-1. That will hurt Calgary as he was one of their top defenders on the ice. Chicago has gone 7-2-0 against the Flames this season and in the playoffs so they have shown already they are capable of winning in Calgary. Mikka Kiprusoff has also been struggling in net for Calgary. He was pulled mid-way through the second period in Game 5 and has a .903 SV% for the series while allowing 16 goals. His backup, Curtis McElhinney did not have a great season, allowing over 3 goals per game and recording a .889 SV%. In the 30-plus minutes he was in during Game 5 he allowed 1 goal and turned away 9 shots. One can only imagine how he would fare against an aggressive Blackhawks attack. Chicago may be at a disadvantage on the road but they have the skill to overcome that and I see them closing out this series tonight unless Kiprusoff can put up the walls 35 to 40 times.
10) Deron Williams has averaged 10.74 assists in all 72 games he’s played this season and in the playoffs. He has averaged 12.0 assists in the 7 games he’s played against the Lakers this year. The Lakers have won by 13, 13, 13, and 10 points in L.A. and are coming off a 14 point win in Utah. Since 7 games is not a very large sample size I used Williams’ overall season average and a discrete Poisson distribution to estimate his chances in this prop. You can see the statistics here. Williams has had 14 or fewer assists in just over 90% of his games this year and can be expected to have 11 or 12 assists. I see Kobe asserting himself early in this game and the Lakers finishing the series on a high night with a 15 point win.
Deron Williams Assists Vs. L.A. Lakers Margin Of Victory
Below is a series of graphs, which you may click on to get a closer view, which show the probabilities of Deron Williams getting a certain number of assists. The first graph shows the number of games this season, including the playoffs, in which Williams recorded 'N' number of assists. The second graph shows the probability of Williams recording a certain number of assists and the third graph shows the percentage of games played Williams is expected to record 'N' assists or fewer. These graphs were made using a discrete Poisson distribution and Williams' average number of assists per game over 72 games played.
Williams had 7 of 72 games this year with 15 or more assists, and just over 80% of his games he can be expected to record 13 or fewer assists. Unless the Jazz keep this game close and lose by 10 or less Williams has a poor shot at winning this prop.
Williams had 7 of 72 games this year with 15 or more assists, and just over 80% of his games he can be expected to record 13 or fewer assists. Unless the Jazz keep this game close and lose by 10 or less Williams has a poor shot at winning this prop.
Sunday, April 26, 2009
April 26th, 2009 Picks
Arrr, 12-2-0 in my picks yesterday. I had a 6W streak built up but the Broncos’ selection of Knowshon Moreno destroyed that streak and spurred me on to keep picking. I then selected 9 in a row while skipping two others that turned out well in my blog. The final pick I was nearly certain the Bengals would take an offensive linesman with Robinskie and Nicks being off the board, but their selection of Rey Maualuga, who is listed as high as 260 pounds on a number of sites, but cut weight down to 249 for official purposes of the draft, ended that one as well. So on to the picks!
1) Philadelphia Phillies @ Florida Marlins – Philadelphia
2) Boston Celtics @ Chicago Bulls – Boston
3) Jerry Kelly or Steve Marino vs. Rest Of Field – Kelly or Marino win the tournament
4) Washington Capitals @ New York Rangers – Washington
5) Clint Bowyer vs. Matt Kenseth – Kenseth has a better final position
6) Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals – St. Louis
7) Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
8) Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers – Orlando
9) New Jersey Devils @ Carolina Hurricanes – Carolina
10) Derek Jeter vs. Kevin Youkilis – Youkilis hits, runs, and RBIs
11) New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox – Boston
Analysis
1) Philadelphia will be starting the elder Jamie Moyer against 25-year old minor leaguer Graham Taylor. Moyer was great last season with a 2.81 ERA and 0.97 WHIP against the Marlins, but so far this season he has recorded a 6.35 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. The Phillies have also been having difficulty htiting the ball lately with a .169 batting average and .309 slugging average in their last three games. It would be surprising to see those batting numbers go anywhere but up after this game, facing Taylor and the Marlins’ bullpen. Florida has not been spectacular in their last three games, batting .257 and slugging .419 and unless Moyer is feeling his age more than he did last year it does not look good for them to increase those numbers. I think Moyer will have a solid game as he did in his first start this season. As long as the game is close the Phillies have shown their superior relief pitching can lead them to wins against the Marlins.
3) At 10-under par Steve Marino leads the rest of the field by oen stroke, and Jerry Kelly leads by 4 strokes at 13-under. The lowest score carded in the first three rounds has been a 6-under par 66. So players currently six strokes back are realistically the only players with even the most remote of chances of catching the leaders. If someone like Charlie Wi or Rory Sabbatini can hit 3-under par for the final round and Marino and Kelly each card their worst round at over par they might end up losing to someone from the rest of the field. It’s not as unlikely as it seems at first glance, but there’s nothing suggesting that it will happen based on the first three rounds, so the best pick would be to pick the current leaders.
6) The Cubs are starting Rich Harden who currently has a 1.27 WHIP and 4.20 ERA. The current Cardinals’ lineup has only had 22 at bats against Harden, but have only managed three hits while being walked three times and struck out five times. Harden is probably due to pitch a solid game but should be tested by a Cardinals team who is batting .366 and slugging .574 while scoring 24 runs in their last 3 games. I am thinking the Cardinals struggle early on and manage only 1 or 2 runs off of Harden. Todd Wellemeyer is starting for the St. Louis Cardinals. He has a 5.29 ERA and 1.94 WHIP thus far this season which are much worse than his numbers from last year. The Cubs have been cold with their bats lately and Wellemeyer is due to have a solid game as well. In 77 at bats against Wellemeyer the Cubs have only hit .286 and slugged .351. Provided both pitchers play well this should be a very close game with few runs. With the Cardinals’ bullpen having a combined WHIP of 1.24 and the Cubs’ bullpen with a combined WHIP of 1.45 and the Cardinals being at home I think they’ll pull out the win at the end.
7) The Seattle Mariners look to sweep the 3 game series with the Angels today. In the three games prior to facing the Angels the Mariners were batting .169 and slugging .303. After two games against them their three game batting average is up to .311 and slugging average at .462. I think those numbers will go back down a bit after today’s game. Jarrod Washburn for the Mariners faces off against Jered Weaver of the Angels for the second time this season. In the first game Washburn shut down the Angels and the Mariners won 11-3 in Seattle. Washburn has a 1.71 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in his first three starts of the season. Weaver has not done so bad himself with a 3.38 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in three starts. Historically the Angels have not been shut down against Washburn, batting .243 and slugging .388 in 276 at bats. Last season Washburn’s ERA against the Angels was 4.42 with a WHIP of 1.58. The Mariners have done very well against Weaver as well, with a career batting average of .312 and slugging average of .462. The Mariners’ bullpen has also done much better than the Angels’ this season. I think Weaver will put in at least 6 solid innings, and keep the bullpen out of the game, while Washburn will have a poor game overall so that the Angels will be the ones defending a lead. With their bats cracking, especially at the end of yesterday’s game, I think they’ll be able to keep that lead and win here, but this is far from a sure thing.
8) Basketball, and especially a 7 game series between two teams, can be one of the most tactical of all sports. The losing team, provided they are not completely overmatched, generally has the advantage after a loss. The winning coach may try to anticipate offensive and defensive changes to be made by the other team but is more likely to continue to emphasize what led to their victory in the game before. The losing coach can run new plays and change defensive strategy to bring the advantage back to their team. Here I think Orlando has the more talent and were on the losing side. Even though they are on the road they also have Hedo Turkoglu approaching full health which is a large factor in their ability to close out teams in the fourth quarter. I think Orlando can make the necessary adjustments to win. Dwight Howard is also young enough that he can put forth an all-star effort night in and night out.
10) A quick look at each players’ numbers will show that Youkilis has been hitting more, scoring more runs, and batting in more runs. Though Jeter is more consistent when it comes to getting at least one hit, run, or RBI Youkilis has a greater likelihood to get more of these in any single game. Masterson and Pettite both had poor games against the opposition last year with Masterson recording a WHIP of 1.93 and Pettite a WHIP of 2.15 so I think each player will record a large number of hits, runs, and RBIs and that favors Youkilis. Pettite is also a left handed pitcher, which favors the right handed Youkilis, while Masterson and Jeter are both right handed. Here is a graph showing the probability distribution and cumulative probability functions for each players’ combined runs, hits, and RBIs based on this seasons’ stats. Youkilis averages about 1 more combined run, hit, and RBI this season (3.59 to 2.65) and I can see him winning this one 5 to 4 today. Keep in mind that each game is not statistically independent and so the functions are based on invalid assumptions, but they do not suggest anything improbable and so have some utility.
1) Philadelphia Phillies @ Florida Marlins – Philadelphia
2) Boston Celtics @ Chicago Bulls – Boston
3) Jerry Kelly or Steve Marino vs. Rest Of Field – Kelly or Marino win the tournament
4) Washington Capitals @ New York Rangers – Washington
5) Clint Bowyer vs. Matt Kenseth – Kenseth has a better final position
6) Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals – St. Louis
7) Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
8) Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers – Orlando
9) New Jersey Devils @ Carolina Hurricanes – Carolina
10) Derek Jeter vs. Kevin Youkilis – Youkilis hits, runs, and RBIs
11) New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox – Boston
Analysis
1) Philadelphia will be starting the elder Jamie Moyer against 25-year old minor leaguer Graham Taylor. Moyer was great last season with a 2.81 ERA and 0.97 WHIP against the Marlins, but so far this season he has recorded a 6.35 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. The Phillies have also been having difficulty htiting the ball lately with a .169 batting average and .309 slugging average in their last three games. It would be surprising to see those batting numbers go anywhere but up after this game, facing Taylor and the Marlins’ bullpen. Florida has not been spectacular in their last three games, batting .257 and slugging .419 and unless Moyer is feeling his age more than he did last year it does not look good for them to increase those numbers. I think Moyer will have a solid game as he did in his first start this season. As long as the game is close the Phillies have shown their superior relief pitching can lead them to wins against the Marlins.
3) At 10-under par Steve Marino leads the rest of the field by oen stroke, and Jerry Kelly leads by 4 strokes at 13-under. The lowest score carded in the first three rounds has been a 6-under par 66. So players currently six strokes back are realistically the only players with even the most remote of chances of catching the leaders. If someone like Charlie Wi or Rory Sabbatini can hit 3-under par for the final round and Marino and Kelly each card their worst round at over par they might end up losing to someone from the rest of the field. It’s not as unlikely as it seems at first glance, but there’s nothing suggesting that it will happen based on the first three rounds, so the best pick would be to pick the current leaders.
6) The Cubs are starting Rich Harden who currently has a 1.27 WHIP and 4.20 ERA. The current Cardinals’ lineup has only had 22 at bats against Harden, but have only managed three hits while being walked three times and struck out five times. Harden is probably due to pitch a solid game but should be tested by a Cardinals team who is batting .366 and slugging .574 while scoring 24 runs in their last 3 games. I am thinking the Cardinals struggle early on and manage only 1 or 2 runs off of Harden. Todd Wellemeyer is starting for the St. Louis Cardinals. He has a 5.29 ERA and 1.94 WHIP thus far this season which are much worse than his numbers from last year. The Cubs have been cold with their bats lately and Wellemeyer is due to have a solid game as well. In 77 at bats against Wellemeyer the Cubs have only hit .286 and slugged .351. Provided both pitchers play well this should be a very close game with few runs. With the Cardinals’ bullpen having a combined WHIP of 1.24 and the Cubs’ bullpen with a combined WHIP of 1.45 and the Cardinals being at home I think they’ll pull out the win at the end.
7) The Seattle Mariners look to sweep the 3 game series with the Angels today. In the three games prior to facing the Angels the Mariners were batting .169 and slugging .303. After two games against them their three game batting average is up to .311 and slugging average at .462. I think those numbers will go back down a bit after today’s game. Jarrod Washburn for the Mariners faces off against Jered Weaver of the Angels for the second time this season. In the first game Washburn shut down the Angels and the Mariners won 11-3 in Seattle. Washburn has a 1.71 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in his first three starts of the season. Weaver has not done so bad himself with a 3.38 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in three starts. Historically the Angels have not been shut down against Washburn, batting .243 and slugging .388 in 276 at bats. Last season Washburn’s ERA against the Angels was 4.42 with a WHIP of 1.58. The Mariners have done very well against Weaver as well, with a career batting average of .312 and slugging average of .462. The Mariners’ bullpen has also done much better than the Angels’ this season. I think Weaver will put in at least 6 solid innings, and keep the bullpen out of the game, while Washburn will have a poor game overall so that the Angels will be the ones defending a lead. With their bats cracking, especially at the end of yesterday’s game, I think they’ll be able to keep that lead and win here, but this is far from a sure thing.
8) Basketball, and especially a 7 game series between two teams, can be one of the most tactical of all sports. The losing team, provided they are not completely overmatched, generally has the advantage after a loss. The winning coach may try to anticipate offensive and defensive changes to be made by the other team but is more likely to continue to emphasize what led to their victory in the game before. The losing coach can run new plays and change defensive strategy to bring the advantage back to their team. Here I think Orlando has the more talent and were on the losing side. Even though they are on the road they also have Hedo Turkoglu approaching full health which is a large factor in their ability to close out teams in the fourth quarter. I think Orlando can make the necessary adjustments to win. Dwight Howard is also young enough that he can put forth an all-star effort night in and night out.
10) A quick look at each players’ numbers will show that Youkilis has been hitting more, scoring more runs, and batting in more runs. Though Jeter is more consistent when it comes to getting at least one hit, run, or RBI Youkilis has a greater likelihood to get more of these in any single game. Masterson and Pettite both had poor games against the opposition last year with Masterson recording a WHIP of 1.93 and Pettite a WHIP of 2.15 so I think each player will record a large number of hits, runs, and RBIs and that favors Youkilis. Pettite is also a left handed pitcher, which favors the right handed Youkilis, while Masterson and Jeter are both right handed. Here is a graph showing the probability distribution and cumulative probability functions for each players’ combined runs, hits, and RBIs based on this seasons’ stats. Youkilis averages about 1 more combined run, hit, and RBI this season (3.59 to 2.65) and I can see him winning this one 5 to 4 today. Keep in mind that each game is not statistically independent and so the functions are based on invalid assumptions, but they do not suggest anything improbable and so have some utility.
Youkilis and Jeter Probabilities From This Season
Above are cumulative probability distribution functions and probability mass distribution functions for Kevin Youkilis' and Derek Jeter's combined runs, hits, and RBIs. The functions were computed using the data available from the 17 games they have played already this season. Click on the image to see a closer view. Essentially Youkilis has recorded more hits, runs, and RBIs is a larger proportion of his games, but if each player records a lower number, such as 2 or fewer, then Jeter has a greater probability of recording the higher number. With Masterson and Pettite recording WHIPS over 1.90 last season against the opposition and the bats hitting heavy lately for both teams the high end numbers favoring Youkilis are more likely.
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