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Above are cumulative probability distribution functions and probability mass distribution functions for Kevin Youkilis' and Derek Jeter's combined runs, hits, and RBIs. The functions were computed using the data available from the 17 games they have played already this season. Click on the image to see a closer view. Essentially Youkilis has recorded more hits, runs, and RBIs is a larger proportion of his games, but if each player records a lower number, such as 2 or fewer, then Jeter has a greater probability of recording the higher number. With Masterson and Pettite recording WHIPS over 1.90 last season against the opposition and the bats hitting heavy lately for both teams the high end numbers favoring Youkilis are more likely.
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wow...I'm going with Youkilis.
ReplyDeleteMasterson and Pettite both shut down the other team which was kind of unexpected. The 'if both get 2 or fewer then Jeter is more likely to win' scenario is coming to fruition! That really stank when he got walked and then advanced to third only to be stranded.
ReplyDeleteDude we totally got robbed on this one.
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