May 7th, 2009 Picks

2-0-0 day, and Lord was it a close one. I stuck with Barçelona even though they were hurting in the backfield. It looked bad very early on, as Barçelona's game plan was supposed to involve dominating the possession and giving few shots to Chelsea. In the 9^th minute Frank Lampard attempted a cross that caroomed off of a Barça defender straight towards Michael Essien. Essien caught the rebound mid-air and launched a rocket that dropped right, bouncing off the bottom of the top beam and into the goal. It was an incredible goal, and Chelsea took the 1-0 lead. Barçelona was doing well controlling the ball, but they could not quite make the final play, with Dani Alves booting his crosses across the end line all day and Chelsea keeping a man between Cech and the ball at all times.

This continued through the second half, and Chelsea were probably robbed of opportunities to go ahead by more with the officials refraining from calling penalties in the box. At the 65^th minute Eric Abidal was sent off for a mild touch and it was all but over for the Catalans. Impressively, Barçelona played some of their best football while a man down, especially on the defensive end. Gerrard Pique, standing in for Puyol and Marquez provided much of the spark. As the match entered injury time Barçelona made a final push. Essien attempted a clearance, but Lionel Messi got a foot on it and crossed to an open Andrés Iniesta who booted it over Cech from 20 yards out. Stamford Bridge erupted, and Barçelona held on to advance to the finals, with the aggregate score 1-1, and Barça holding a 1-0 advantage on away goals.

My second pick was the Los Angeles Lakers' winning margin. It looked like it would be an easy win in the first quarter as the Lakers scored 39 points and took a 14 point lead. Houston's bench would not let the Rockets fade, as Carl Landry and Kyle Lowry played intense basketball, forcing turnovers and grabbing offensive rebounds. It was a tie game at the half and Ron Artest had 5 field goals. The Lakers came out strong behind Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol in the third as they regained a 9 point lead. Artest had 8 field goals, but mid-way through the fourth quarter was ejected for arguing a loose ball foul called on him. The Lakers finished strong to win by 13, 111-98, and Artest finished with 8 field goals made. And so on to the picks.

1) Luke Donald vs. Ian Poulter – Donald cards a lower front 9 score
2) Atlanta Braves @ Florida Marlins – Atlanta
3) Padraig Harrington vs. Steve Stricker – Stricker cards a lower first round score
4) Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals – Kansas City
5) Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres – San Diego
6) Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds – Milwaukee
7) Josh Smith vs. Mo Williams – Williams pts.
8) Roberto Luongo vs. Nikolai Khabibulin – Luongo more saves
9) Vancouver Canucks @ Chicago Blackhawks - Vancouver
10) Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox – Chicago
11) Penn State vs. Southern California – Penn State
12) Aaron Hill vs. Bobby Abreu – Hill total bases
13) Detroit Red Wings @ Anaheim Ducks – 5 goals or fewer
14) Detroit Red Wings @ Anaheim Ducks - Detroit

Analysis
1) TPC Sawgrass is widely considered one of the more difficult courses on the PGA Tour. You can get some information on slope ratings at tpc.com and there’s a nice graphical tour of the course there. From 2003 to 2008 Luke Donald has played 18 rounds at Sawgrass, carding even par or better on the front 9 eight times. His median score is 1-over par, and his average score is 0.1-over par. He’s carded as low as 5 under, and as high as 4 over. Ian Poulter has played 18 rounds on the course as well, from 2004 to 2008. He’s carded even par or better on the front 9 eight times and also has a median score of 1-over par. His average is 0.6-over par, and his range of scores has been from 3 under to 4 over. You can check out Donald’s stats here, and Ian Poulter’s stats here. What jumped out at me was Donald having a lower putting average per green-in-regulation (GIR) by 0.076, a better scoring average by 0.82 strokes, and a higher birdie average by 0.33 per round. Keep in mind the scoring average is weighted by slope ratings and other factors to normalize for the differences in the courses played. I think each player is likely to be within -1 to +1, so it will be close, but with Donald having proven he can shoot 5-under par I have to give him the edge.

3) Traditionally, Padraig Harrington has done better than Steve Stricker at the Stadium Course at Sawgrass. His median score in 28 rounds is an even par 72 and he's shot 16 of his 28 rounds at even par or better. Stricker's median score is 74 in 16 rounds, only 5 of which have been even par or better. His best round was a 3-under 69, while his worst has been a 6-over 78. It's funny because Stricker has done better on that island par-3, birdying it 4 times and hitting bogey or worse 3 times in 16 rounds, while Harrington has only managed to score birdie three times, and hits bogey or worse 5 times. It's the rest of the the course giving Stricker more trouble. In the past three years neither golfer has been able to score better than 70. Right now Stricker has been the much better player on the tour, winning nearly $2 million dollars in 10 events, whilel Harrington is having to make do with just over $300,000 from 9 events. You can see Harrington's stats and Strickers' stats and come to your own conclusions. Either take the more successful golfer or take the golfer who's done better at Sawgrass, historically.

5) Dan Haren faces off against Chris Young in this game of low powered offenses. The Diamondbacks have scored 6 runs in their past three games while the Padres have scored 9 runs. Both teams are batting under .240 on the season and slugging under .390. Dan Haren would appear to be the far superior pitcher as he's started the season with a 1.47 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP. He's been a great strikeout pitcher with his split-finger fastball, striking out 9.8 batters per 9 innings and 6.7 batters for every one he walks. Chris Young has been solid only about half the time this season, with three terrific games shutting teams down, and two awful games, against the Phillies and the Rockies, where he gave up 6 or more runs before the end of the 4^th inning. After each of those shellings Young came back with good games, once recording 7 shutout innings and most recently limiting the Dodgers to 1 run in 7 innings at Dodger Stadium. The Padres' batting order has done well against Haren in their careers, posting a combined .320 batting average and .467 slugging average. Still, Haren hasn't always been this nasty so I would put 3 or 4 runs as the most he could possibly be expected to concede. With the run support the Diamondbacks have been providing that could be 3 or 4 runs too many.

6) The Milwaukee Brewers have been absolutely crushing the ball lately. They have scored 30 runs in their past three games by batting .336 and slugging .522 in 113 at bats. Yesterday they faced Cincinnati Reds ace Bronson Arroyo and put 9 runs on the board before he could even get his fourth out. They can be expected to plummet back to Earth, but probably not against Micah Owings. Owings has a 4.84 ERA and a poor 1.61 WHIP to start the season. In his first start of the year he faced Looper and the Brewers and did well to limit them to 6 hits and 4 earned runs in 5 innings. The Brewers ended up with 9 runs after shelling the Reds' bullpen. Braden Looper is starting for Milwaukee and he has done well. With a 3.10 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in his first 6 starts he has been a steady presence on the mound. His second start of the year was against the Reds, against whom he picked up his first win of the season. The Reds got 6 hits and 3 runs off of Looper in the 6 innings he pitched and his bullpen did well to maintain their lead. Milwaukee is sure to disappoint their fans in the near future, but I don't see it being tonight.

7)

Josh Smith Vs. Mo Williams - Points

Above are graphs showing Josh Smith's actual point production in away games with the expected distribution overlaid, and the same for Williams, but using data from his home games this season. One can see that Williams averages about 4 points more per game at home than Smith does on the road. One can also see the Josh Smith has scored 13 points 9 times on the road and that he's a wide-ranging scorer; he's had a single game scoring 10, 14, 19, 22, etc. points. Mo Williams' point totals are more bunched up; in 41 of his 45 games he has scored between 11 and 24 points. It's worth noting that Williams' chart leaves off games of 43 and 44 points, though those numbers were included in his average. Head-to-head Smith won the prop in Game 1, outscoring Williams 22 to 21. It was the first time this season Smith had scored more than 12 points, in Atlanta or in Cleveland. It was also the lowest number of points Williams had recorded against Atlanta all year. In Game 2 I expect Joe Johnson, Flip Murray, and Zaza Pachulia to get back on track and contribute more, leading to Smith scoring less than 20 points, which he has done in 25 of 35 road games. Mo Williams should be able to run circles around Mike Bibby and I see him scoring at least 20 points, a feat he's accomplished in 19 of 43 home games.

8) Any goalie worth starting in the NHL is going to make a save on over 90% of the shots taken at them. During the season both Roberto Luongo and Nikolai Khabibulin had a .920 SV%, though during the playoffs Luongo has made saves on 93.5% of the shots taken at him, while Khabibulin has only made saves on 89.7% of shots. With 30 shots on goal that's really not a huge difference, so for the most part this prop is really about which team will take more shots on goal. The Chicago Blackhawks trail the Vancouver Canucks 2-1 in this best of 7 series and they will be heading back to Vancouver after tonight, so the Blackhawks really need to win this game. One might think that would lead them to take more shots, but that has not always been the case. In a do-or-die Game 7 the Blackhawks took only 18 shots on goal against Calgary in winning 4-1, and Khabibulin made 43 saves. Looking at the chart to the side one sees the Blackhawks average about 5 more shots on goal. One can also see that there is significant overlap between 25 to 40 shots taken between the two teams, but in an exceptional game the Blackhawks take a large number of shots, while Vancouver takes a small number of shots. With Luongo being better in the playoffs, and Chicago taking many more shots on goal in this series, and during the season, Luongo is the better pick.

11) Here's a brief preview of the NCAA Men's Volleyball Final Four, being held in Provo, Utah. Penn State are the defending champs, but USC play in the best conference in the nation and are more used to playing at high altitudes (Provo is at 4551 feet above sea level).

12) Aaron Hill and Bobby Abreu are two sluggers for the Toronto Blue Jays and the Los Angeles Angels, respectively. One his having a fantastic season, batting .366 with 7 home runs while the other is just good, batting .343 with 0 home runs. In terms of total bases Aaron Hill is dominating, averaging 2.5 per game compared to Abreu who is averaging 1.6 per game. Jered Weaver is pitching for the Angels, and he has given up two doubles and a single in 5 at bats to Aaron Hill. Robert Ray is pitching for the Blue Jays, his second start. While he's never faced Abreu he did well in his first start. In the minor leagues he was a good strikeout pitcher with a WHIP of 1.37 through 351¹/₃ innings. The chart to the right shows the proportion of games in 2008 and 2009 each player had a certain number of total bases. It's apparent that Abreu is more likely to go hit-less while Hill is much more likely to hit a double or two singles. I don't see a home run being given up to either of these batters and without that the odds are squarely on Aaron Hill for this one. Of course, betting on Hill is also a bet on a minor league pitcher having two solid starts in a row in the Majors.

May 6th, 2009 Picks

2-2-0 today, ...WLWL... and so on lately. My first pick was Mischa Zverev, who was defeated by Andreas Beck in straight sets, 3-6 4-6. 'Nuff said. My second pick was the San Francisco Giants. Things started off right when Renteria and Aurilia singled, bringing Bengie Molina up to bat. Molina nailed the first pitch over the plate to put the Giants up 3-0. Lincecum had a solid game, allowing 2 runs off of 4 hits, while striking out 7 batters in 7 innings. Still, the Giants found themselves up only 3-2 entering the 8th inning. Sean Marshall walked Renteria and gave up a single to Aurilia prompting the Cubs to bring in Samardzija for a little relief pitching. He provided little as he hit Molina with a pitch and then proceeded to give up a 2 RBI double and an RBI single. Cotts was brought in with runners on first and second and he did well to induce an inning-ending double play. Valdez and Affeldt secured the remaining 6 outs on 8 batters in the 8th and 9th to secure a 6-2 win for the Giants, Lincecum's third of the season.

My third pick was the Minnesota Twins. Rick Porcello showed why he's one of Detroit's top prospects as he pitched 7 shutout innings, allowing only 4 hits by the Twins. Nick Blackburn had a downright atrocious outing as he made it through only 3-1/3 innings, giving up 9 runs, 6 of them earned. The Tigers scored all 9 of their runs in the first four innings and the Twins could never get that one last hit to drive their men home. Detroit won easily, 9-0.

My last pick was Denver's winning margin. Denver led by 8 after the first quarter, but Dallas came back to make it a 3 point game at the half. Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony were struggling mightily, and it was mostly Kenyon Martin, J.R. Smith, and Chris Andersen who kept them from falling behind. The third quarter was back-and-forth but the Nuggets maintained their 3 point margin. In the 4th Billups and Anthony got back on track in a serious way. Anthony scored 7 points in the first three minutes and the Nuggets raced out to a 12 point lead. 'Melo kept on going from there, scoring 8 more points in the quarter. Denver was able to nurse a 15 to 17 point lead and the Nuggets won by 12, 117-105. Jason Kidd finished the game with 7 assists, his season long average in road games. So on to the picks!

1) Barçelona @ Chelsea – Barçelona advance
2) Alex Ovechkin vs. Sidney Crosby – Ovechkin pts.
3) Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles – Baltimore
4) Philadelphia Phillies vs. Johan Santana – Philadelphia total hits
5) Boston Bruins @ Carolina Hurricanes – Boston
6) Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics – Boston
7) Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals – Pittsburgh
8) Los Angeles Galaxy @ Real Salt Lake – Real Salt Lake win
9) Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics – Texas
10) Ron Artest vs. Los Angeles Lakers win margin – Los Angeles win margin

Analysis

1) I'll start off with a nice analysis by Phil Thompson at SkySports. He's calling a 3-2 win by Barçelona. Here's a slightly anglocentric preview from the BBC. They point out that the home side has advanced in 66.8% of all Champions League ties after a 0-0 draw away. Goal.com's preview points out Chelsea's emphasis on not conceding an away goal. It will be difficult for Barçelona to score on a defensively focused Blues side, but it shall also be difficult for Chelsea to score on the possession dominating Blaugrana. Their prediction: Barçelona advance with a 1-1 score. The Telegraph give a nice preview in which they analyze key one-on-one matchups on the pitch. They also predict each team bring out a 4-3-3 formation for this leg of the tie.

As for my thoughts on the match, it’s tough to gauge how this leg will go since Chelsea didn’t really show their offense in the 1^st leg and Barçelona’s defense was not tested too greatly. The near goal by Drogba off a Barçelona error is an example of how Chelsea’s size and skill can allow them to score. I think Barçelona have the better keeper in Valdes, but Chelsea will test their possession style of play. Chelsea will also be dangerous on corners with such height, should they get any. I might switch to Chelsea in fact, because what I saw from Barçelona is what I saw from Arsenal in their 1^st leg; an unwillingness to take risky and difficult shots, instead passing the ball around to set up gimmie shots on goal. On the other hand, if Chelsea move even one man out past 18 yards Barçelona should be able to find that 'gimmie'. Chelsea are 15-9-2 at Stamford Bridge, with two of those draws being scoreless. With any draw where a goal is scored resulting in Barçelona advancing the Blues are essentially 15-9 at home. Barçelona are 18-6-3 away from the Nou Camp, with one of their draws being 0-0, making them 23-3 away for purposes of this matchup. Barçelona are the odds on favorites to come out on top by a goal or more, and with non-clean sheet draws sending them through to Rome Barçelona are heavy favorites. I computed odds along the lines of Barçelona at -130 to +160 for Chelsea. Skybet has Barçelona at -200 to advance, and Chelsea at +110.

3) Baltimore are starting Mark Hendrickson on the mound who has had an awful start to his season, recording a 5.79 ERA and a 2.01 WHIP. His first game of the season he did well, limiting Tampa Bay to 1 run and 6 hits in 5¹/₃ innings. Baltimore ended up winning that game 5-4. Other than that a typical game from Hendrickson has involved 5 innings pitched and a half dozen runs or more being given up. He's not injured, and he was not this poor last season so I would expect him to settle down at home and have a fairly good outing, giving up 3 to 4 runs at most. Minnesota has not been heavy with the bats in their last three games, batting .252 and slugging .330. That last number has not been helped by the fact that the Twins have not found the yard in their past three games. Kevin Slowey is starting for Minnesota, and his numbers suggest he's been pretty good for the year. He has a 1.47 WHIP and a 5.17 ERA to go along with a 4-0 record. His strikeout to walk ratio is 11.5 as he's only walked two batters all year. I just don't see that continuing for Slowey, and do not see a middle-of-the pack pitcher on a team like the Twins going 5-0 to start the season.

4) Johan Santana is on one of the hottest stretches in his career. He's averaging 8.8 strikeouts per game over his past 5 starts. Last season the most he'd averaged over a 5 game period was 7.6 in his final 5 starts. Part of the reason for this is it's not altogether uncommon for him to record 5 or fewer strikeouts in a 7 inning start. He's had 5 or fewer strikeouts 15 times in his last 39 starts. He's also had 8 or more strikeouts 11 times in that period. You can see how many games with a particular number of strikeouts Santana has had by looking at the graph below. You can also see that the Phillies average a couple more hits per game, and that they average one fewer hit per game against Santana than they do against all pitchers combined. Of course, they only batted against Johan 5 times last season. In those 5 games the Phillies had more hits three times, 7-6, 13-4, and 8-6; they pushed once, 6-6; and they lost once, 10-5. I think Santana is due to have a mundane start, and the Phillies will do well to avoid striking out when they fall behind on the count, instead fouling out, popping or grounding out, or getting a hit.
6) Boston lost Game 1 to Orlando after being down by 28 points early in the 3^rd quarter and coming back to within 4 points late in the 4^th. All the reasons I gave for why Boston should have won Game 1 apply to this game. I fully expect Rajon Rondo to be more aggressive on Rafer Alston, and for Paul Pierce to avoid foul trouble in this game.

8) First off, Real Salt Lake have been absolutely dominant at Rio Tinto Stadium so far this year. They defeated last season's MLS champions, Columbus, 4-1 and followed that up with a solid 2-1 win over Eastern Conference leaders DC United. Their third road game was a 6-0 thrashing of New England where the Revolution were completely outclassed. Here is a very fine preview from goal.com. Real are dealing with injuries to their keeper, Nick Rimando, but have a solid prospect in Seitz to replace him. They will also be missing Javier Morales at mid-field, and Jamison Olave on defense through suspension. For the Galaxy, their best strategy will be to keep men back, play for the draw, and hope that Landon Donovan can make something happen on their counters. With Robbie Findlay and Movsisyan headlining one of the most powerful home attacks in Major League Soccer I think Real will be too strong for the Galaxy to overcome.

10) After the Rockets won in L.A. by 8 points in Game 1, with Artest making 8 field goals, I was inclined to think Houston could keep Game 2 close with Artest making at least 6. Then I looked at their numbers over the regular season and in these playoffs. Artest is averaging 6.4 field goals per game on the road, and in four games against the Lakers this season he has averaged 5.8 field goals. This graph shows the expected distribution of field goals made (FGM) for Artest on the road and the Lakers' winning margins at home, based on this season's averages. The bar graphs show the actual counts of games with a certain number of FGMs or wins by a certain amount. One thing to keep in mind is that there are 5 Lakers' home wins left off the high end of the graph, including a 27 point win over Houston at the beginning of the season. I can see Yao Ming playing fewer minutes in this game, especially if his knee is swelling, and consequently Artest making more baskets. Of course, if Yao is limited then Artest can go ahead and score, but the Rockets' chances will still be worse. I think the Lakers can turn this one around and win by 10, which would be enough to outpace Artest in 87% of his road games.

May 5th, 2009 Picks

2-1-0 today no thanks to those lousy Celtics. Ahh, I can't be too hard on them, more on that later. My first pick of the day was the Chennai Super Kings. They got what they needed from their secondary batsmen, racking up 178 runs in 20 overs. After that it was up to the Chennai bowlers to keep Gilchrist and Gibbs from racking up the runs. Keep in mind, Chennai's bowlers had been some of the weakest in the Indian Premier League, so it was incredible that they got Gilchrist and Gibbs out with the two combining for one run. Smith batted strong for the Chargers, but it was far from enough as Chennai got the tenth Deccan batsman out with nearly 5 overs remaining. The final score was Chennai 178, Deccan 100.

My second pick of the day was the Boston Celtics. At one point in the third quarter they were down by 28 points. Paul Pierce picked up his second foul 3 minutes in to the 2^nd quarter and sat for 5 minutes. When he entered the game he picked up his 3^rd foul 15 seconds later and left the game for the remainder of the half. The Magic went on a 15-4 run in the last 4 minutes of the 1^st half while Pierce was on the bench. The Celtics came back throughout the fourth quarter and were down by 4 with the ball and 1:12 remaining. Rashard Lewis stole a pass by Rondo, Rondo's seventh turnover, and the Magic held on to win by 5, 95-90.

My third pick of the day was Yao Ming's points and rebounds. He did a good job scoring early and getting uncontested rebounds, but he drew two quick fouls on Andrew Bynum, leaving Pau Gasol to guard Ming. Gasol did a much better job of fronting Yao and keeping the ball out of his hands. Kobe Bryant was the facilitator for much of the first half and had 8 points going in to the 3^rd quarter. The Rockets increased their lead to 10 and Bryant responded with more and more scoring, making shot after shot with a hand in his face. Bryant did miss some, however; he is human. For every 3 points Bryant scored Yao scored 2 and maintained his lead. Mid-way through the fourth quarter Kobe drove right into Yao and bumped knees with him. For a moment it appeared as though Yao would have to leave the game, but he shrugged off the Rockets' trainers and came back a couple of minutes later. Down the stretch Yao was the go-to man for free throws and that was enough to hold off Kobe's scoring barrage. In the end Yao had 28 points and 10 rebounds, while Kobe had 32 points off of 31 field goal attempts. The Rockets won the game 100 to 92. So on to the picks.

1) Andreas Beck vs. Mischa Zverev - Zverev
2) San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs - San Francisco
3) Manchester United @ Arsenal - Arsenal win
4) New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves - New York
5) Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers - Minnesota
6) Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh
7) Joe Johnson and Al Horford vs. LeBron James - James pts.
8) Vancouver Canucks @ Chicago Blackhawks - 6 goals or more
9) Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres - Colorado
10) Detroit Red Wings @ Anaheim Ducks - Anaheim
11) Jason Kidd vs. Denver Nuggets win margin - Denver win margin

Analysis
1) Andreas Beck is 2-0 in his career against Mischa Zverev. Beck is currently ranked 58^th in the world while Zverev is ranked 56^th. Those rankings matter little, however, as it is not uncommon for players to move up or down 30 spots after a single tournament. Those are the highest rankings Beck and Zverev have achieved and are only due to their recently reaching the quarterfinals of a tournament. To see their stats click here for Andreas Beck and click here for Mischa Zverev. Beck is 6-2 in clay court matches this year while Zverev is 7-4. To see the odds from various online books on each player click here. The odds are either even, or have Zverev as the slight favorite.

2) Let me start off by saying the Cubs are the safer pick. With the Giants combining for 4 runs total in their past 3 games, and facing Marshall, a pick for the Giants is depending on 7 or 8 shutout innings from Lincecum. In those past 3 games the Giants have a .198 batting average and a .260 slugging average. The Cubs, by comparison, have scored 16 runs in their last 3 games, batting .263 and slugging .495. Marshall is having a great start to his season, as well. His 3.32 ERA and 1.32 WHIP rival Lincecum's, though he's nowhere near Tim's 12.4 K/9 rate or 4.3 K/BB ratio. In 36 career at bats the Giants' order have a .306 batting average and .333 slugging average, so run support may not be as hard to come by as it seems on the surface. Surely the Giants are due to break out of that sub-.200 batting average. If you feel Lincecum will give up even 1 or 2 runs to Soriano, Lee, Fukudome et al. you're better off taking the Cubs.

3) Arsenal are down 0-1 in aggregate to Manchester United after their 1^st leg match at Old Trafford. Arsenal now have a chance to even things up at Emirates Stadium in their bid to advance to the Champions League finals. Andrei Arshavin played for Champions League competitors Zenit St. Petersburg at an earlier stage in the competition and so he is cup-tied, or ineligible to play. Other than that both Arsene Wenger and Alex Ferguson should have everyone at their disposal. Robin Van Persie is fighting to be fit for Arsenal, and Rio Ferdinand is trying to overcome a knock for Manchester United, and I expect to see both on the pitch for what is probably the most important match of the season for both clubs, thus far. Manchester United and Arsenal are being given the same odds by the sports books, but I think Arsenal would be the favorite in this match were it not for Manchester United's well-deserved reputation. I think Manchester United were lucky to have scored off of that O'Shea return shot, but had O'Shea not found the back of the net the Red Devils would likely have maintained the pressure until they had. Arsenal will need better performances from Adebayor and especially Theo Walcott. They'll need to be more aggressive with their shots as Manchester United will not give them m/any opportunities to set up for that 'perfect' attempt. I think a draw is very likely in this match (33%), with Arsenal winning by 1 (22%) being a bit more likely than Manchester United winning by 1 (18%).

5) At 20 years old Rick Porcello is a terrific prospect for the major leagues. His 1.38 WHIP and 2.0 K/BB ratio are respectable, and he's got terrific control on the ball, netting 1.14 times as many ground outs and fly outs. Unfortunately, he's yet to develop a consistent delivery. When he's on he's great, but he's generally unable to maintain that groove through even 6 innings. With a 6.23 ERA and 1-3 record he's apt to put the Tigers in a hole they have difficulty climbing out of. Nick Blackburn is only in his 2nd full year in the majors, but he's put in his time in the minor leagues and polished his game off a bit more than Porcello. His WHIP is 1.37, but with a 4.02 ERA he's giving up 1 or 2 runs less than Porcello in a typical 6 inning start. Both the Tigers and the Twins have been hitting the ball well in their past three games. The Tigers are batting .276 and slugging .418 resulting in 19 runs. The Twins are batting .301 and slugging .414 which have given them 19 runs. I like the Twins here with the more experienced pitcher on the mound, but the Tigers' bats are certainly capable of waking up and keeping them in the game.

7) Al Horford does not have much of a reputation as a scorer, so I was surprised to see he and Joe Johnson had combined for over 40 points on the road as often as they had (5 times).If you go by their regular season numbers Johnson and Horford are the clear choice here. Looking at their production thus far in the playoffs it's clear that James is the pick. In the regular season Atlanta played twice in Cleveland, with James outscoring Johnson and Horford in one game, 22-16, and the Hawks duo outpacing James in the other game, 30-24. I am thinking Horford is not fully healthy for this game and so Johnson will not get too much support there. Even still Johnson is capable of outscoring James by himself. If LeBron James plays like someone who wishes to prove that they really are the MVP he should take this. It may be foolhardy, just looking at the proportion of games Johnson and Horford have over 25 and the proportion James has at 25 points or less, but I'll stick with LeBron here.

11) Personally, I think this is one of the most lopsided props I've seen posted and I'll be taking this one later tonight. There's a reason Kidd averages 2 assists fewer on the road than at home. It comes down to the fact that he only gets an assist when one of his teammates make a shot, and Dallas typically tends to not shoot the ball well on the road. I think it's also no coincidence that Kidd's assists per game have dropped from 8 to 5 in the playoffs. His average was that high in the regular season because his teammates were making shots on poor defensive teams like Sacramento. One can see from the charts on the left that Denver has won at home by 10 or more in 67% of their games and their average margin of victory at home has been 11 points this season. Jason Kidd does have a number of games on the road this season with 10 or more assists, but it's less than half of his total road games. His season high is 20 assists, which came in a home game against the Phoenix Suns. Dallas played at Denver twice prior to the All-Star break this season. In those games Kidd had 9 and 7 assists in a 3 point and 2 point loss, respectively. That bodes well for Kidd in this prop, but Denver appears to have really found their groove towards the end of the season. In Game 1 Kidd had 4 assists in a 14 point loss. It wouldn't be too incredible for Dallas to play Denver close and for Kidd to win this prop, but I am not going to bet against the team who beat the Hornets by 58 points in New Orleans.

May 4th, 2009 Picks

1-2-1 today and I’ll consider myself lucky to get that. My first pick was Cagliari to win or draw. Palermo came out the aggressors and after a goal directly from a free kick by Fabrizio Miccoli at 38’ allowed the pink-blacks to take a 2-0 lead into the half. Jeda pulled Cagliari back to within one shortly after halftime but Palermo responded with 3 straight goals. Palermo collected three points and won the match 5 to 1.

My second pick was Sporting Gijon. After Cagliari was deicmated it was certainly a “Ah hell, Gijon it is” moment. Gijon took the lead at 61’ and appeared to be headed to victory, but Etxeberría headed a pass on over to Amorebieta who headed it on in for the equalizer in injury time. The final score was Sporting Gijon 1, Athletic Bilbao 1 for the push.

My third pick was the Houston Astros. Both Wandy Rodriguez and Jo-Jo Reyes gave up three runs before being relieved in the 6th inning with Reyes being credited for a fourth earned run after a batter he had walked was batted in by a sacrifice fly. Houston did a great job advancing and scoring runners with 4 of their 7 runs coming from sacrifices. Atlanta’s bullpen gave up a couple of extra runs to decide the game, Houston 7, Atlanta 5. LaTroy Hawkins got the save for the Astros.

My final pick was the Chicago White Sox. I really should stop being so stubborn as the absences of Dye, Thome, Pierzynski, and Getz were certainly felt. The Sox were able to get hits off of Harrison, but with runners in scoring position Harrison did a great job of avoiding walks and preventing hits. The infielders for the Rangers also did a terrific job. Ian Kinsler started the game with a solo home run for the second time in this series and the Rangers combined for 10 hits and 5 runs in 5¹/₃ innings off of Danks. So on to the picks.

1) Deccan Chargers vs. Chennai Super Kings – Chennai
2) Empoli @ Bari – Empoli win or draw
3) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals – Washington
4) Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees – New York
5) Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics – Boston
6) Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals – St. Louis
7) Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics – Oakland
8) Yao Ming vs. Kobe Bryant – Ming pts. and reb.

Analysis
1) For this match cricinfo.com has one of the most informative previews I’ve seen for any sporting event. Click here to get the scoop on lineups, stats, and recent form this season. Deccan Chargers won their first meeting with Chennai this season mainly due to a fast start by Deccan and a poor finish by the Super Kings’ batsmen. Chennai have a run rate of 9.00 per over this season compared to 8.30 per over for Deccan. Deccan have the better bowlers, so Chennai will need their fielders to prevent outs and will need more solid batting all down their order. There’s a real risk Deccan could win the game by taking wickets, but they haven’t done too well in that aspect so far this tournament. Chennai are favored 4/6 to 6/5 for Deccan in this match.

2)

Bari are currently 1st in Serie B with a game in hand on 2nd place Parma. They are virtually guaranteed a spot in Serie A next season as they are 10 points clear of 3rd place Livorno who have 12 points possible from their remaining four matches. A win over Empoli would clinch their promotion to Serie A. Unfortunately, Bari have had difficulty collecting three points at home against opponents in the top half of the table with a loss to Parma, and draws against Ascoli and Vicenza in their 6 most recent home matches. Empoli are playing for a chance at promotion to Serie A. They are currently one point behind Grosseto for the final playoff spot. They lead Grosseto in goal differential so even a draw at Bari would give them that spot for the moment. Empoli have been quite inconsistent on the road with a draw at 3rd place Livorno and 6^th place Grosseto, but a loss to 14^th place Pisa in their last 5 away matches. Bari are favored to win with a 45% chance, and a draw is being given 32% odds. Bari is only favored given their chances of winning by 1, 2, 3, or more goals, however. A draw is the most likely single result, with Bari by 1 the next most likely and Empoli by 1 the third most likely result. If either team is leading at the half they will have a great advantage, as Bari have lost or drawn all 5 home matches in which they’ve trailed at the half and Empoli have lost all 5 such away matches.

5) The Boston Celtics open their second round series at home against the Orlando Magic. The Celtics will be without Kevin Garnett and Leon Powe who have both gone down with knee injuries. That leaves Kendrick Perkins, Glen 'Big Baby' Davis, and Brian Scalabrine to contain the inside presence of Dwight Howard, the outside presence of Hedo Turkoglu, and the inside-outside game of Rashard Lewis. The Celtics are wise to focus on their mismatches in the front court instead of relying on their advantages in the back court. Rajon Rondo should be able to dominate the game on both ends against Rafer Alston so look for him to have another all-star series. With Courtney Lee out the Magic will rely on J.J. Redick and Mickael Pietrus at shooting guard. The key for Boston will be keeping their big men out of foul trouble while still playing physical defense against Turkoglu and Howard and for Ray Allen, and Rondo, to exploit their matchups at the guard positions. Paul Pierce should do a fine job on Lewis, limiting his drives to the basket and his open three point attempts. Orlando will need to bother Pierce, Allen, and Rondo to have a chance here, but they'll have to do it without forgetting about Perkins and Davis who are quite capable of scoring upwards of 20 points. With the Celtics' bench featuring Eddie House, Stephon Marbury, Tony Allen, and Mikki Moore they are the deeper team and I expect that to make the difference should the game end up being close.

6) The St. Louis Cardinals return home, facing the Philadelphia Phillies in an attempt to keep pace with the Dodgers for best record in MLB. The Cardinals will start pitcher Kyle Lohse who is having a terrific start to the season. In 5 games started he has recorded an ERA of 1.97 to go with a WHIP of 1.03. His ground out to fly out ratio of 0.97 speaks to his control and ability to keep his pitches in the lower half of the strike zone. In 119 at bats the Phillies' current roster has a batting average of .202 and a .311 slugging average. Lohse has a sore knee, but he had that and a stomach virus when he faced the Braves last week and pitched 6 scoreless innings while giving up only 4 hits. The Phillies have struggled a bit at the plate in their last three games, batting .235 and slugging .373 while scoring only 11 runs. Every pitcher has a bad day, but Lohse's houdou figures to keep the Phillies' bats aslumber. That doesn't speak well for Joe Blanton who required a ton of run support just to garner two 'no decisions' in his first 4 starts. His 8.41 ERA is fairly bad, and his 1.97 WHIP is even worse. He stats from previous years suggest he is overdue for a solid performance, but it's unlikely he can match Lohse's game score. Philadelphia can win games by shelling the opposition's bullpen, but St. Louis can match them in that aspect. Truly, the only way I can see Philadelphia winning today is if Lohse's arm turns to rubber and the Cardinals' bullpen suddenly turns south.

8) Well, lesson learned from yesterday is that it's better to look at a players' production from the season and playoffs overall, rather than just the tiny subset of playoff games. Looking at the red line showing the distribution for Yao over the season and the yellow line showing Kobe's regular season distribution it appears Yao averages slightly more points and rebounds in away games than Kobe averages points in home games. Taking a look at the bar charts it's clear Yao has more games over 30 and that Kobe is the player who's shown he can defer on scoring and end up with under 20 points. In this Game 1 it will be interesting to see if Andrew Bynum gets his starting job back from Lamar Odom. I would not be surprised to see the offense run through Pau Gasol, and the risk with taking Ming here is that the Lakers will be trying to get Ming to commit fouls. The Rockets will rely on Shane Battier and, at times, Ron Artest to slow Bryant down. Look for Kobe to get his teammates involved on offense, and for that role to continue until the Lakers are down. Look for the Lakers to front Yao and defend him one-on-one until he turns inside to move towards the basket or take that fall away jumper. If the Lakers are quick with bringing the double team over Yao will find it difficult to score points. This should be close, but you never know when one player will be taken out of the offense.

May 3rd, 2009 Picks

Yarrrghghhgkslsk! Yarghklsk being a traditional Scythian pirate lament… unlike Manny Pacquiao avoided being drawn inside like 97.3% of the opponents Hatton had defeated I was drawn in to the Seattle Mariners like 97.3% of streakers who were defeated. I really thought Washburn would get a bit more support than all that. My first pick was Manchester City to win. They were aggressive right from the start and Calceido scored off of a rebound from in close at 27’. Robinho did the same at 34’ after a shot by Vincent Kompany was blocked, scoring from about 10 yards out in the center of the box. In first half injury time Blackburn Rovers were assessed a penalty for handball. Elano converted to make the score 3-0 Manchester City at the half. Blackburn Rovers started to realize they’d need a point in at least one of their final matches to avoid relegation and were extremely aggressive, but in their multitude of shots (10 in the second half) they were only able to get one goal, from Keith Andrews at 66’. The final score was Manchester City 3, Blackburn Rovers 1.

My second pick was the aforementioned Seattle Mariners. Trevor Cahill had a fairly good outing, allowing 1 earned run off of 7 hits in 6 innings pitched. His three walks to one strikeout were terrible but not costly as the Mariners struggled to string together hits. Jarrod Washburn had a great outing with 1 earned run off of 5 hits, while striking out 6 batters and walking 2. The Mariners’ bullpen could not hold on to the 2-1 lead they inherited, however, as they gave up one run each in the 8^th and 9^th innings. Mark Lowe gave up three hits and the tying run in the 8^th and David Aardsma, normally a solid closer, walked Crosby onto base, then gave up a pop fly that allowed him to advance, and a single to Petit that drove home the go-ahead run. Michael Wuertz held on for Oakland, retiring the three batters he faced. So yarghklsk, the picks, they await.

1) Cagliari @ Palermo – Cagliari win or draw
2) Athletic Bilbao @ Sporting Gijon – Athletic Bilbao win
3) Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers – Cleveland
4) Dwyane Wade vs. Joe Johnson – Wade pts.
5) Houston Astros @ Atlanta Braves – Houston
6) Tiger Woods vs. Rest Of Field – Woods wins the tournament
7) Ryan Getzlaf vs. Niklas Lidstrom – Lidstrom goals and ast.
8) Dirk Nowitzki vs. Carmelo Anthony – Anthony pts.
9) Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners – Seattle
10) Carolina Hurricanes @ Boston Bruins – Boston
11) Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers – Texas

Analysis
1) Cagliari Calcio will be without their captain in the backfield, Diego Lopez. This could be a major detriment to their side, but they won 3-2 away at Juventus and tied 1-1 away at Internazionale Milan back in January, both games with Lopez missing. U.S. Città di Palermo will be missing defenders Moris Carrozieri and Cesare Bovo, both of whom have started in over two thirds of Palermo’s matches. Looking at goals scored, home for Palermo and away for Cagliari, I would have to give Palermo the advantage, but when it comes to goals allowed Cagliari’s chances of winning or drawing look much better. Cagliari have scored at least one goal in 75% of their games so limiting Palermo to one goal will be the task for the Isolani. Palermo is 12-0-4 (W-D-L) at home with a plus-11 goal differential in Serie A competition this year while Cagliari is 4-4-8 with a minus-4 differential in away matches.

2) No major injury concerns plague either Athletic Bilbao or Sporting Gijon for this match. Sporting Gijon are fighting to avoid relegation after being promoted from the Segunda Liga last season. Athletic Bilbao have bigger things on their mind with a Copa del Rey final against Barçelona looming in just over a weeks time. On the one hand it’s perfect motivation for Sporting Gijon to be aggressive and overpowering and for Athletic Bilbao to eventually concede the match with lacklustre play. On the other hand, Athletic Bilbao is playing in their domestic Cup final against Barçelona and Sporting Gijon are about to be relegated back to the Segunda Liga after one season in the Primera Liga. In the Copa del Rey Athletic Bilbao eliminated Sporting Gijon with a 2-1 win away at Gijon back in January. Athletic Bilbao should win this game with superior quality to their side, but Sporting Gijon will not go down without a fight. Hell, I might even take Gijon myself, as the odds are truly even for either side to win.

4) The graphical analysis can be found in an earlier post. Suffice it to say that Joe Johnson has been having some of his worst games of the year in this series and Dwyane Wade has won this prop in 5 of the 6 games and pushed in the other.

5) The Atlanta Braves have the better bats with .255 season batting average and .384 season slugging average. Compare those with the Astros’ season batting numbers, .249 and .315. In their past three games Atlanta’s and Houston’s batting numbers are nearly identical, however. Their bullpens are both prone to give up runs, with Houston’s being especially prone to home runs having given up 13 in 84 relief innings pitched. The deciding factor for me here is Wandy Rodriguez on the mound for the Astros versus Jo-Jo Reyes for the Braves. Rodriguez has a 1.69 ERA and 1.03 WHIP so far this season, and Atlanta has hit well off of him in the past so I don’t expect him to shut down the Braves by any means. Jo-Jo Reyes has a 4.26 ERA and 1.11 WHIP so far this season with the Astros also hitting well off of him. Last season Reyes’ WHIP was 1.65 so I expect him to give up a few more runs to the Astros.

8) Once again the bulk of my analysis can be found here. Essentially the Spurs gave Dirk a lot of trouble and his playoff production has dropped significantly from what he was doing just in road games during the season. The Nuggets should give him just as much trouble, though it’s worth it to note that Nowitzki’s season high came in a game at Denver. Anthony has had no problems scoring against Dallas during the regular season and his scoring has increased during the playoffs so I have to take Anthony here.

11) John Danks is starting on the mound for the White Sox tonight in his first start since being knocked around for 4 innings against the Seattle Mariners. Danks picked up his first loss, a 9-1 loss for the Sox, giving up 5 earned runs on 8 hits. Even after that performance his ERA for the season is a very respectable 2.74 and his WHIP remains at 1.09. Matt Harrison is treading the opposite path, coming off his best start of the season after a horrendous start. He picked up his first win of the season, a 6-4 win over the Orioles, last Monday. It was a good thing he had the Rangers’ bats behind him as he gave up 4 runs on 7 hits in 7 innings. He struck out 3 batters and walked only 1, making it his first game of the season striking out more batters than he’d walked. Many people consider the White Sox to have one of the better batting orders in MLB, but if the White Sox are good then the Rangers are truly fearsome. They bat .273 on the season and slug an incredible .501 over 23 games. At Rangers Ballpark they are even better, batting .307 and slugging .556. The White Sox have a more solid bullpen when it comes to ERA and home runs given up per inning pitched and they’ll need that advantage against the Rangers tonight. If Danks gets knocked around again, and Harrison continues to find his groove, the White Sox could very well find themselves on the losing end of this series. I’m more inclined to think Harrison gets abused and taken out after 5 innings while Danks dials back in for this game.
UPDATE: The White Sox are missing a number of starters, including Jermaine Dye and Pierzynski. Their lead off man will be Jayson Nix, who is not even fully healthy and has posted poor numbers in the big leagues anyways. Corky Miller is batting .267 in 15 at bats and Wilson Betemit is batting .292 in 24 at bats, and both have shown an ability to rack up the total bases. I would still take the White Sox here.

Dirk vs. 'Melo; Sharp vs. Smooth; Soft vs. Soft

Above are plots identical to those used in the Wade vs. Johnson prop. The Poisson estimations use Nowitzki's road games and Anthony's home games as their basis. The same with the bar graphs. One can see that during the regular season Nowitzki averaged nearly 6 more points on the road than Anthony did at home. One can also see that Nowitzki's production in the playoffs has not even been close to what it was during the regular season. Anthony, on the other hand, has picked up his production in the playoffs. Both players scored over 20 points per game during the season when they met head-to-head. One interesting note is that Nowitzki's season high of 44 came in a game at Denver and that Anthony's season high of 43 came in a game at Dallas. Nowitzki's struggles in the playoffs can be forgiven a bit because Gregg Popovich's Spurs always have good strategies for containing their opponents' stars, but the Nuggets will present just as many, if not more problems, for Nowitzki to contend with.

Dwyane Wade vs. Joe Johnson - What's Wrong With Joe?

The graphs above show two things for both Dwyane Wade and Joe Johnson. The bar charts show how many games Wade scored a certain number of points on the road this season and in the playoffs, and for Johnson the number of points, rebounds, and assists he accumulated in home games during the season. The vertical axis is the number of games. The line graphs show the Poisson distribution of games with a certain number of points over a large number of games. The additional line graph for Joe Johnson shows the Poisson distribution of his points, rebounds, and assists over a large number of games based on his production at home in the playoffs. One can see that Johnson's numbers have dropped considerably from his regular season numbers and that during the regular season he could very well be expected to outscore Wade in this prop. In the playoffs Wade has scored more points in 5 of the 6 games played, and had the same number of points as Johnson's points, rebounds, and assists in the other game. It's possible Johnson might break out of his funk, but it's at least as likely that Wade will take over and dominate in this make or break Game 7.