May 5th, 2009 Picks

2-1-0 today no thanks to those lousy Celtics. Ahh, I can't be too hard on them, more on that later. My first pick of the day was the Chennai Super Kings. They got what they needed from their secondary batsmen, racking up 178 runs in 20 overs. After that it was up to the Chennai bowlers to keep Gilchrist and Gibbs from racking up the runs. Keep in mind, Chennai's bowlers had been some of the weakest in the Indian Premier League, so it was incredible that they got Gilchrist and Gibbs out with the two combining for one run. Smith batted strong for the Chargers, but it was far from enough as Chennai got the tenth Deccan batsman out with nearly 5 overs remaining. The final score was Chennai 178, Deccan 100.

My second pick of the day was the Boston Celtics. At one point in the third quarter they were down by 28 points. Paul Pierce picked up his second foul 3 minutes in to the 2^nd quarter and sat for 5 minutes. When he entered the game he picked up his 3^rd foul 15 seconds later and left the game for the remainder of the half. The Magic went on a 15-4 run in the last 4 minutes of the 1^st half while Pierce was on the bench. The Celtics came back throughout the fourth quarter and were down by 4 with the ball and 1:12 remaining. Rashard Lewis stole a pass by Rondo, Rondo's seventh turnover, and the Magic held on to win by 5, 95-90.

My third pick of the day was Yao Ming's points and rebounds. He did a good job scoring early and getting uncontested rebounds, but he drew two quick fouls on Andrew Bynum, leaving Pau Gasol to guard Ming. Gasol did a much better job of fronting Yao and keeping the ball out of his hands. Kobe Bryant was the facilitator for much of the first half and had 8 points going in to the 3^rd quarter. The Rockets increased their lead to 10 and Bryant responded with more and more scoring, making shot after shot with a hand in his face. Bryant did miss some, however; he is human. For every 3 points Bryant scored Yao scored 2 and maintained his lead. Mid-way through the fourth quarter Kobe drove right into Yao and bumped knees with him. For a moment it appeared as though Yao would have to leave the game, but he shrugged off the Rockets' trainers and came back a couple of minutes later. Down the stretch Yao was the go-to man for free throws and that was enough to hold off Kobe's scoring barrage. In the end Yao had 28 points and 10 rebounds, while Kobe had 32 points off of 31 field goal attempts. The Rockets won the game 100 to 92. So on to the picks.

1) Andreas Beck vs. Mischa Zverev - Zverev
2) San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs - San Francisco
3) Manchester United @ Arsenal - Arsenal win
4) New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves - New York
5) Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers - Minnesota
6) Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh
7) Joe Johnson and Al Horford vs. LeBron James - James pts.
8) Vancouver Canucks @ Chicago Blackhawks - 6 goals or more
9) Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres - Colorado
10) Detroit Red Wings @ Anaheim Ducks - Anaheim
11) Jason Kidd vs. Denver Nuggets win margin - Denver win margin

Analysis
1) Andreas Beck is 2-0 in his career against Mischa Zverev. Beck is currently ranked 58^th in the world while Zverev is ranked 56^th. Those rankings matter little, however, as it is not uncommon for players to move up or down 30 spots after a single tournament. Those are the highest rankings Beck and Zverev have achieved and are only due to their recently reaching the quarterfinals of a tournament. To see their stats click here for Andreas Beck and click here for Mischa Zverev. Beck is 6-2 in clay court matches this year while Zverev is 7-4. To see the odds from various online books on each player click here. The odds are either even, or have Zverev as the slight favorite.

2) Let me start off by saying the Cubs are the safer pick. With the Giants combining for 4 runs total in their past 3 games, and facing Marshall, a pick for the Giants is depending on 7 or 8 shutout innings from Lincecum. In those past 3 games the Giants have a .198 batting average and a .260 slugging average. The Cubs, by comparison, have scored 16 runs in their last 3 games, batting .263 and slugging .495. Marshall is having a great start to his season, as well. His 3.32 ERA and 1.32 WHIP rival Lincecum's, though he's nowhere near Tim's 12.4 K/9 rate or 4.3 K/BB ratio. In 36 career at bats the Giants' order have a .306 batting average and .333 slugging average, so run support may not be as hard to come by as it seems on the surface. Surely the Giants are due to break out of that sub-.200 batting average. If you feel Lincecum will give up even 1 or 2 runs to Soriano, Lee, Fukudome et al. you're better off taking the Cubs.

3) Arsenal are down 0-1 in aggregate to Manchester United after their 1^st leg match at Old Trafford. Arsenal now have a chance to even things up at Emirates Stadium in their bid to advance to the Champions League finals. Andrei Arshavin played for Champions League competitors Zenit St. Petersburg at an earlier stage in the competition and so he is cup-tied, or ineligible to play. Other than that both Arsene Wenger and Alex Ferguson should have everyone at their disposal. Robin Van Persie is fighting to be fit for Arsenal, and Rio Ferdinand is trying to overcome a knock for Manchester United, and I expect to see both on the pitch for what is probably the most important match of the season for both clubs, thus far. Manchester United and Arsenal are being given the same odds by the sports books, but I think Arsenal would be the favorite in this match were it not for Manchester United's well-deserved reputation. I think Manchester United were lucky to have scored off of that O'Shea return shot, but had O'Shea not found the back of the net the Red Devils would likely have maintained the pressure until they had. Arsenal will need better performances from Adebayor and especially Theo Walcott. They'll need to be more aggressive with their shots as Manchester United will not give them m/any opportunities to set up for that 'perfect' attempt. I think a draw is very likely in this match (33%), with Arsenal winning by 1 (22%) being a bit more likely than Manchester United winning by 1 (18%).

5) At 20 years old Rick Porcello is a terrific prospect for the major leagues. His 1.38 WHIP and 2.0 K/BB ratio are respectable, and he's got terrific control on the ball, netting 1.14 times as many ground outs and fly outs. Unfortunately, he's yet to develop a consistent delivery. When he's on he's great, but he's generally unable to maintain that groove through even 6 innings. With a 6.23 ERA and 1-3 record he's apt to put the Tigers in a hole they have difficulty climbing out of. Nick Blackburn is only in his 2nd full year in the majors, but he's put in his time in the minor leagues and polished his game off a bit more than Porcello. His WHIP is 1.37, but with a 4.02 ERA he's giving up 1 or 2 runs less than Porcello in a typical 6 inning start. Both the Tigers and the Twins have been hitting the ball well in their past three games. The Tigers are batting .276 and slugging .418 resulting in 19 runs. The Twins are batting .301 and slugging .414 which have given them 19 runs. I like the Twins here with the more experienced pitcher on the mound, but the Tigers' bats are certainly capable of waking up and keeping them in the game.

7) Al Horford does not have much of a reputation as a scorer, so I was surprised to see he and Joe Johnson had combined for over 40 points on the road as often as they had (5 times).If you go by their regular season numbers Johnson and Horford are the clear choice here. Looking at their production thus far in the playoffs it's clear that James is the pick. In the regular season Atlanta played twice in Cleveland, with James outscoring Johnson and Horford in one game, 22-16, and the Hawks duo outpacing James in the other game, 30-24. I am thinking Horford is not fully healthy for this game and so Johnson will not get too much support there. Even still Johnson is capable of outscoring James by himself. If LeBron James plays like someone who wishes to prove that they really are the MVP he should take this. It may be foolhardy, just looking at the proportion of games Johnson and Horford have over 25 and the proportion James has at 25 points or less, but I'll stick with LeBron here.

11) Personally, I think this is one of the most lopsided props I've seen posted and I'll be taking this one later tonight. There's a reason Kidd averages 2 assists fewer on the road than at home. It comes down to the fact that he only gets an assist when one of his teammates make a shot, and Dallas typically tends to not shoot the ball well on the road. I think it's also no coincidence that Kidd's assists per game have dropped from 8 to 5 in the playoffs. His average was that high in the regular season because his teammates were making shots on poor defensive teams like Sacramento. One can see from the charts on the left that Denver has won at home by 10 or more in 67% of their games and their average margin of victory at home has been 11 points this season. Jason Kidd does have a number of games on the road this season with 10 or more assists, but it's less than half of his total road games. His season high is 20 assists, which came in a home game against the Phoenix Suns. Dallas played at Denver twice prior to the All-Star break this season. In those games Kidd had 9 and 7 assists in a 3 point and 2 point loss, respectively. That bodes well for Kidd in this prop, but Denver appears to have really found their groove towards the end of the season. In Game 1 Kidd had 4 assists in a 14 point loss. It wouldn't be too incredible for Dallas to play Denver close and for Kidd to win this prop, but I am not going to bet against the team who beat the Hornets by 58 points in New Orleans.