May 6th, 2009 Picks

2-2-0 today, ...WLWL... and so on lately. My first pick was Mischa Zverev, who was defeated by Andreas Beck in straight sets, 3-6 4-6. 'Nuff said. My second pick was the San Francisco Giants. Things started off right when Renteria and Aurilia singled, bringing Bengie Molina up to bat. Molina nailed the first pitch over the plate to put the Giants up 3-0. Lincecum had a solid game, allowing 2 runs off of 4 hits, while striking out 7 batters in 7 innings. Still, the Giants found themselves up only 3-2 entering the 8th inning. Sean Marshall walked Renteria and gave up a single to Aurilia prompting the Cubs to bring in Samardzija for a little relief pitching. He provided little as he hit Molina with a pitch and then proceeded to give up a 2 RBI double and an RBI single. Cotts was brought in with runners on first and second and he did well to induce an inning-ending double play. Valdez and Affeldt secured the remaining 6 outs on 8 batters in the 8th and 9th to secure a 6-2 win for the Giants, Lincecum's third of the season.

My third pick was the Minnesota Twins. Rick Porcello showed why he's one of Detroit's top prospects as he pitched 7 shutout innings, allowing only 4 hits by the Twins. Nick Blackburn had a downright atrocious outing as he made it through only 3-1/3 innings, giving up 9 runs, 6 of them earned. The Tigers scored all 9 of their runs in the first four innings and the Twins could never get that one last hit to drive their men home. Detroit won easily, 9-0.

My last pick was Denver's winning margin. Denver led by 8 after the first quarter, but Dallas came back to make it a 3 point game at the half. Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony were struggling mightily, and it was mostly Kenyon Martin, J.R. Smith, and Chris Andersen who kept them from falling behind. The third quarter was back-and-forth but the Nuggets maintained their 3 point margin. In the 4th Billups and Anthony got back on track in a serious way. Anthony scored 7 points in the first three minutes and the Nuggets raced out to a 12 point lead. 'Melo kept on going from there, scoring 8 more points in the quarter. Denver was able to nurse a 15 to 17 point lead and the Nuggets won by 12, 117-105. Jason Kidd finished the game with 7 assists, his season long average in road games. So on to the picks!

1) Barçelona @ Chelsea – Barçelona advance
2) Alex Ovechkin vs. Sidney Crosby – Ovechkin pts.
3) Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles – Baltimore
4) Philadelphia Phillies vs. Johan Santana – Philadelphia total hits
5) Boston Bruins @ Carolina Hurricanes – Boston
6) Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics – Boston
7) Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals – Pittsburgh
8) Los Angeles Galaxy @ Real Salt Lake – Real Salt Lake win
9) Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics – Texas
10) Ron Artest vs. Los Angeles Lakers win margin – Los Angeles win margin

Analysis

1) I'll start off with a nice analysis by Phil Thompson at SkySports. He's calling a 3-2 win by Barçelona. Here's a slightly anglocentric preview from the BBC. They point out that the home side has advanced in 66.8% of all Champions League ties after a 0-0 draw away. Goal.com's preview points out Chelsea's emphasis on not conceding an away goal. It will be difficult for Barçelona to score on a defensively focused Blues side, but it shall also be difficult for Chelsea to score on the possession dominating Blaugrana. Their prediction: Barçelona advance with a 1-1 score. The Telegraph give a nice preview in which they analyze key one-on-one matchups on the pitch. They also predict each team bring out a 4-3-3 formation for this leg of the tie.

As for my thoughts on the match, it’s tough to gauge how this leg will go since Chelsea didn’t really show their offense in the 1^st leg and Barçelona’s defense was not tested too greatly. The near goal by Drogba off a Barçelona error is an example of how Chelsea’s size and skill can allow them to score. I think Barçelona have the better keeper in Valdes, but Chelsea will test their possession style of play. Chelsea will also be dangerous on corners with such height, should they get any. I might switch to Chelsea in fact, because what I saw from Barçelona is what I saw from Arsenal in their 1^st leg; an unwillingness to take risky and difficult shots, instead passing the ball around to set up gimmie shots on goal. On the other hand, if Chelsea move even one man out past 18 yards Barçelona should be able to find that 'gimmie'. Chelsea are 15-9-2 at Stamford Bridge, with two of those draws being scoreless. With any draw where a goal is scored resulting in Barçelona advancing the Blues are essentially 15-9 at home. Barçelona are 18-6-3 away from the Nou Camp, with one of their draws being 0-0, making them 23-3 away for purposes of this matchup. Barçelona are the odds on favorites to come out on top by a goal or more, and with non-clean sheet draws sending them through to Rome Barçelona are heavy favorites. I computed odds along the lines of Barçelona at -130 to +160 for Chelsea. Skybet has Barçelona at -200 to advance, and Chelsea at +110.

3) Baltimore are starting Mark Hendrickson on the mound who has had an awful start to his season, recording a 5.79 ERA and a 2.01 WHIP. His first game of the season he did well, limiting Tampa Bay to 1 run and 6 hits in 5¹/₃ innings. Baltimore ended up winning that game 5-4. Other than that a typical game from Hendrickson has involved 5 innings pitched and a half dozen runs or more being given up. He's not injured, and he was not this poor last season so I would expect him to settle down at home and have a fairly good outing, giving up 3 to 4 runs at most. Minnesota has not been heavy with the bats in their last three games, batting .252 and slugging .330. That last number has not been helped by the fact that the Twins have not found the yard in their past three games. Kevin Slowey is starting for Minnesota, and his numbers suggest he's been pretty good for the year. He has a 1.47 WHIP and a 5.17 ERA to go along with a 4-0 record. His strikeout to walk ratio is 11.5 as he's only walked two batters all year. I just don't see that continuing for Slowey, and do not see a middle-of-the pack pitcher on a team like the Twins going 5-0 to start the season.

4) Johan Santana is on one of the hottest stretches in his career. He's averaging 8.8 strikeouts per game over his past 5 starts. Last season the most he'd averaged over a 5 game period was 7.6 in his final 5 starts. Part of the reason for this is it's not altogether uncommon for him to record 5 or fewer strikeouts in a 7 inning start. He's had 5 or fewer strikeouts 15 times in his last 39 starts. He's also had 8 or more strikeouts 11 times in that period. You can see how many games with a particular number of strikeouts Santana has had by looking at the graph below. You can also see that the Phillies average a couple more hits per game, and that they average one fewer hit per game against Santana than they do against all pitchers combined. Of course, they only batted against Johan 5 times last season. In those 5 games the Phillies had more hits three times, 7-6, 13-4, and 8-6; they pushed once, 6-6; and they lost once, 10-5. I think Santana is due to have a mundane start, and the Phillies will do well to avoid striking out when they fall behind on the count, instead fouling out, popping or grounding out, or getting a hit.
6) Boston lost Game 1 to Orlando after being down by 28 points early in the 3^rd quarter and coming back to within 4 points late in the 4^th. All the reasons I gave for why Boston should have won Game 1 apply to this game. I fully expect Rajon Rondo to be more aggressive on Rafer Alston, and for Paul Pierce to avoid foul trouble in this game.

8) First off, Real Salt Lake have been absolutely dominant at Rio Tinto Stadium so far this year. They defeated last season's MLS champions, Columbus, 4-1 and followed that up with a solid 2-1 win over Eastern Conference leaders DC United. Their third road game was a 6-0 thrashing of New England where the Revolution were completely outclassed. Here is a very fine preview from goal.com. Real are dealing with injuries to their keeper, Nick Rimando, but have a solid prospect in Seitz to replace him. They will also be missing Javier Morales at mid-field, and Jamison Olave on defense through suspension. For the Galaxy, their best strategy will be to keep men back, play for the draw, and hope that Landon Donovan can make something happen on their counters. With Robbie Findlay and Movsisyan headlining one of the most powerful home attacks in Major League Soccer I think Real will be too strong for the Galaxy to overcome.

10) After the Rockets won in L.A. by 8 points in Game 1, with Artest making 8 field goals, I was inclined to think Houston could keep Game 2 close with Artest making at least 6. Then I looked at their numbers over the regular season and in these playoffs. Artest is averaging 6.4 field goals per game on the road, and in four games against the Lakers this season he has averaged 5.8 field goals. This graph shows the expected distribution of field goals made (FGM) for Artest on the road and the Lakers' winning margins at home, based on this season's averages. The bar graphs show the actual counts of games with a certain number of FGMs or wins by a certain amount. One thing to keep in mind is that there are 5 Lakers' home wins left off the high end of the graph, including a 27 point win over Houston at the beginning of the season. I can see Yao Ming playing fewer minutes in this game, especially if his knee is swelling, and consequently Artest making more baskets. Of course, if Yao is limited then Artest can go ahead and score, but the Rockets' chances will still be worse. I think the Lakers can turn this one around and win by 10, which would be enough to outpace Artest in 87% of his road games.

May 5th, 2009 Picks

2-1-0 today no thanks to those lousy Celtics. Ahh, I can't be too hard on them, more on that later. My first pick of the day was the Chennai Super Kings. They got what they needed from their secondary batsmen, racking up 178 runs in 20 overs. After that it was up to the Chennai bowlers to keep Gilchrist and Gibbs from racking up the runs. Keep in mind, Chennai's bowlers had been some of the weakest in the Indian Premier League, so it was incredible that they got Gilchrist and Gibbs out with the two combining for one run. Smith batted strong for the Chargers, but it was far from enough as Chennai got the tenth Deccan batsman out with nearly 5 overs remaining. The final score was Chennai 178, Deccan 100.

My second pick of the day was the Boston Celtics. At one point in the third quarter they were down by 28 points. Paul Pierce picked up his second foul 3 minutes in to the 2^nd quarter and sat for 5 minutes. When he entered the game he picked up his 3^rd foul 15 seconds later and left the game for the remainder of the half. The Magic went on a 15-4 run in the last 4 minutes of the 1^st half while Pierce was on the bench. The Celtics came back throughout the fourth quarter and were down by 4 with the ball and 1:12 remaining. Rashard Lewis stole a pass by Rondo, Rondo's seventh turnover, and the Magic held on to win by 5, 95-90.

My third pick of the day was Yao Ming's points and rebounds. He did a good job scoring early and getting uncontested rebounds, but he drew two quick fouls on Andrew Bynum, leaving Pau Gasol to guard Ming. Gasol did a much better job of fronting Yao and keeping the ball out of his hands. Kobe Bryant was the facilitator for much of the first half and had 8 points going in to the 3^rd quarter. The Rockets increased their lead to 10 and Bryant responded with more and more scoring, making shot after shot with a hand in his face. Bryant did miss some, however; he is human. For every 3 points Bryant scored Yao scored 2 and maintained his lead. Mid-way through the fourth quarter Kobe drove right into Yao and bumped knees with him. For a moment it appeared as though Yao would have to leave the game, but he shrugged off the Rockets' trainers and came back a couple of minutes later. Down the stretch Yao was the go-to man for free throws and that was enough to hold off Kobe's scoring barrage. In the end Yao had 28 points and 10 rebounds, while Kobe had 32 points off of 31 field goal attempts. The Rockets won the game 100 to 92. So on to the picks.

1) Andreas Beck vs. Mischa Zverev - Zverev
2) San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs - San Francisco
3) Manchester United @ Arsenal - Arsenal win
4) New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves - New York
5) Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers - Minnesota
6) Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh
7) Joe Johnson and Al Horford vs. LeBron James - James pts.
8) Vancouver Canucks @ Chicago Blackhawks - 6 goals or more
9) Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres - Colorado
10) Detroit Red Wings @ Anaheim Ducks - Anaheim
11) Jason Kidd vs. Denver Nuggets win margin - Denver win margin

Analysis
1) Andreas Beck is 2-0 in his career against Mischa Zverev. Beck is currently ranked 58^th in the world while Zverev is ranked 56^th. Those rankings matter little, however, as it is not uncommon for players to move up or down 30 spots after a single tournament. Those are the highest rankings Beck and Zverev have achieved and are only due to their recently reaching the quarterfinals of a tournament. To see their stats click here for Andreas Beck and click here for Mischa Zverev. Beck is 6-2 in clay court matches this year while Zverev is 7-4. To see the odds from various online books on each player click here. The odds are either even, or have Zverev as the slight favorite.

2) Let me start off by saying the Cubs are the safer pick. With the Giants combining for 4 runs total in their past 3 games, and facing Marshall, a pick for the Giants is depending on 7 or 8 shutout innings from Lincecum. In those past 3 games the Giants have a .198 batting average and a .260 slugging average. The Cubs, by comparison, have scored 16 runs in their last 3 games, batting .263 and slugging .495. Marshall is having a great start to his season, as well. His 3.32 ERA and 1.32 WHIP rival Lincecum's, though he's nowhere near Tim's 12.4 K/9 rate or 4.3 K/BB ratio. In 36 career at bats the Giants' order have a .306 batting average and .333 slugging average, so run support may not be as hard to come by as it seems on the surface. Surely the Giants are due to break out of that sub-.200 batting average. If you feel Lincecum will give up even 1 or 2 runs to Soriano, Lee, Fukudome et al. you're better off taking the Cubs.

3) Arsenal are down 0-1 in aggregate to Manchester United after their 1^st leg match at Old Trafford. Arsenal now have a chance to even things up at Emirates Stadium in their bid to advance to the Champions League finals. Andrei Arshavin played for Champions League competitors Zenit St. Petersburg at an earlier stage in the competition and so he is cup-tied, or ineligible to play. Other than that both Arsene Wenger and Alex Ferguson should have everyone at their disposal. Robin Van Persie is fighting to be fit for Arsenal, and Rio Ferdinand is trying to overcome a knock for Manchester United, and I expect to see both on the pitch for what is probably the most important match of the season for both clubs, thus far. Manchester United and Arsenal are being given the same odds by the sports books, but I think Arsenal would be the favorite in this match were it not for Manchester United's well-deserved reputation. I think Manchester United were lucky to have scored off of that O'Shea return shot, but had O'Shea not found the back of the net the Red Devils would likely have maintained the pressure until they had. Arsenal will need better performances from Adebayor and especially Theo Walcott. They'll need to be more aggressive with their shots as Manchester United will not give them m/any opportunities to set up for that 'perfect' attempt. I think a draw is very likely in this match (33%), with Arsenal winning by 1 (22%) being a bit more likely than Manchester United winning by 1 (18%).

5) At 20 years old Rick Porcello is a terrific prospect for the major leagues. His 1.38 WHIP and 2.0 K/BB ratio are respectable, and he's got terrific control on the ball, netting 1.14 times as many ground outs and fly outs. Unfortunately, he's yet to develop a consistent delivery. When he's on he's great, but he's generally unable to maintain that groove through even 6 innings. With a 6.23 ERA and 1-3 record he's apt to put the Tigers in a hole they have difficulty climbing out of. Nick Blackburn is only in his 2nd full year in the majors, but he's put in his time in the minor leagues and polished his game off a bit more than Porcello. His WHIP is 1.37, but with a 4.02 ERA he's giving up 1 or 2 runs less than Porcello in a typical 6 inning start. Both the Tigers and the Twins have been hitting the ball well in their past three games. The Tigers are batting .276 and slugging .418 resulting in 19 runs. The Twins are batting .301 and slugging .414 which have given them 19 runs. I like the Twins here with the more experienced pitcher on the mound, but the Tigers' bats are certainly capable of waking up and keeping them in the game.

7) Al Horford does not have much of a reputation as a scorer, so I was surprised to see he and Joe Johnson had combined for over 40 points on the road as often as they had (5 times).If you go by their regular season numbers Johnson and Horford are the clear choice here. Looking at their production thus far in the playoffs it's clear that James is the pick. In the regular season Atlanta played twice in Cleveland, with James outscoring Johnson and Horford in one game, 22-16, and the Hawks duo outpacing James in the other game, 30-24. I am thinking Horford is not fully healthy for this game and so Johnson will not get too much support there. Even still Johnson is capable of outscoring James by himself. If LeBron James plays like someone who wishes to prove that they really are the MVP he should take this. It may be foolhardy, just looking at the proportion of games Johnson and Horford have over 25 and the proportion James has at 25 points or less, but I'll stick with LeBron here.

11) Personally, I think this is one of the most lopsided props I've seen posted and I'll be taking this one later tonight. There's a reason Kidd averages 2 assists fewer on the road than at home. It comes down to the fact that he only gets an assist when one of his teammates make a shot, and Dallas typically tends to not shoot the ball well on the road. I think it's also no coincidence that Kidd's assists per game have dropped from 8 to 5 in the playoffs. His average was that high in the regular season because his teammates were making shots on poor defensive teams like Sacramento. One can see from the charts on the left that Denver has won at home by 10 or more in 67% of their games and their average margin of victory at home has been 11 points this season. Jason Kidd does have a number of games on the road this season with 10 or more assists, but it's less than half of his total road games. His season high is 20 assists, which came in a home game against the Phoenix Suns. Dallas played at Denver twice prior to the All-Star break this season. In those games Kidd had 9 and 7 assists in a 3 point and 2 point loss, respectively. That bodes well for Kidd in this prop, but Denver appears to have really found their groove towards the end of the season. In Game 1 Kidd had 4 assists in a 14 point loss. It wouldn't be too incredible for Dallas to play Denver close and for Kidd to win this prop, but I am not going to bet against the team who beat the Hornets by 58 points in New Orleans.

May 4th, 2009 Picks

1-2-1 today and I’ll consider myself lucky to get that. My first pick was Cagliari to win or draw. Palermo came out the aggressors and after a goal directly from a free kick by Fabrizio Miccoli at 38’ allowed the pink-blacks to take a 2-0 lead into the half. Jeda pulled Cagliari back to within one shortly after halftime but Palermo responded with 3 straight goals. Palermo collected three points and won the match 5 to 1.

My second pick was Sporting Gijon. After Cagliari was deicmated it was certainly a “Ah hell, Gijon it is” moment. Gijon took the lead at 61’ and appeared to be headed to victory, but Etxeberría headed a pass on over to Amorebieta who headed it on in for the equalizer in injury time. The final score was Sporting Gijon 1, Athletic Bilbao 1 for the push.

My third pick was the Houston Astros. Both Wandy Rodriguez and Jo-Jo Reyes gave up three runs before being relieved in the 6th inning with Reyes being credited for a fourth earned run after a batter he had walked was batted in by a sacrifice fly. Houston did a great job advancing and scoring runners with 4 of their 7 runs coming from sacrifices. Atlanta’s bullpen gave up a couple of extra runs to decide the game, Houston 7, Atlanta 5. LaTroy Hawkins got the save for the Astros.

My final pick was the Chicago White Sox. I really should stop being so stubborn as the absences of Dye, Thome, Pierzynski, and Getz were certainly felt. The Sox were able to get hits off of Harrison, but with runners in scoring position Harrison did a great job of avoiding walks and preventing hits. The infielders for the Rangers also did a terrific job. Ian Kinsler started the game with a solo home run for the second time in this series and the Rangers combined for 10 hits and 5 runs in 5¹/₃ innings off of Danks. So on to the picks.

1) Deccan Chargers vs. Chennai Super Kings – Chennai
2) Empoli @ Bari – Empoli win or draw
3) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals – Washington
4) Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees – New York
5) Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics – Boston
6) Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals – St. Louis
7) Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics – Oakland
8) Yao Ming vs. Kobe Bryant – Ming pts. and reb.

Analysis
1) For this match cricinfo.com has one of the most informative previews I’ve seen for any sporting event. Click here to get the scoop on lineups, stats, and recent form this season. Deccan Chargers won their first meeting with Chennai this season mainly due to a fast start by Deccan and a poor finish by the Super Kings’ batsmen. Chennai have a run rate of 9.00 per over this season compared to 8.30 per over for Deccan. Deccan have the better bowlers, so Chennai will need their fielders to prevent outs and will need more solid batting all down their order. There’s a real risk Deccan could win the game by taking wickets, but they haven’t done too well in that aspect so far this tournament. Chennai are favored 4/6 to 6/5 for Deccan in this match.

2)

Bari are currently 1st in Serie B with a game in hand on 2nd place Parma. They are virtually guaranteed a spot in Serie A next season as they are 10 points clear of 3rd place Livorno who have 12 points possible from their remaining four matches. A win over Empoli would clinch their promotion to Serie A. Unfortunately, Bari have had difficulty collecting three points at home against opponents in the top half of the table with a loss to Parma, and draws against Ascoli and Vicenza in their 6 most recent home matches. Empoli are playing for a chance at promotion to Serie A. They are currently one point behind Grosseto for the final playoff spot. They lead Grosseto in goal differential so even a draw at Bari would give them that spot for the moment. Empoli have been quite inconsistent on the road with a draw at 3rd place Livorno and 6^th place Grosseto, but a loss to 14^th place Pisa in their last 5 away matches. Bari are favored to win with a 45% chance, and a draw is being given 32% odds. Bari is only favored given their chances of winning by 1, 2, 3, or more goals, however. A draw is the most likely single result, with Bari by 1 the next most likely and Empoli by 1 the third most likely result. If either team is leading at the half they will have a great advantage, as Bari have lost or drawn all 5 home matches in which they’ve trailed at the half and Empoli have lost all 5 such away matches.

5) The Boston Celtics open their second round series at home against the Orlando Magic. The Celtics will be without Kevin Garnett and Leon Powe who have both gone down with knee injuries. That leaves Kendrick Perkins, Glen 'Big Baby' Davis, and Brian Scalabrine to contain the inside presence of Dwight Howard, the outside presence of Hedo Turkoglu, and the inside-outside game of Rashard Lewis. The Celtics are wise to focus on their mismatches in the front court instead of relying on their advantages in the back court. Rajon Rondo should be able to dominate the game on both ends against Rafer Alston so look for him to have another all-star series. With Courtney Lee out the Magic will rely on J.J. Redick and Mickael Pietrus at shooting guard. The key for Boston will be keeping their big men out of foul trouble while still playing physical defense against Turkoglu and Howard and for Ray Allen, and Rondo, to exploit their matchups at the guard positions. Paul Pierce should do a fine job on Lewis, limiting his drives to the basket and his open three point attempts. Orlando will need to bother Pierce, Allen, and Rondo to have a chance here, but they'll have to do it without forgetting about Perkins and Davis who are quite capable of scoring upwards of 20 points. With the Celtics' bench featuring Eddie House, Stephon Marbury, Tony Allen, and Mikki Moore they are the deeper team and I expect that to make the difference should the game end up being close.

6) The St. Louis Cardinals return home, facing the Philadelphia Phillies in an attempt to keep pace with the Dodgers for best record in MLB. The Cardinals will start pitcher Kyle Lohse who is having a terrific start to the season. In 5 games started he has recorded an ERA of 1.97 to go with a WHIP of 1.03. His ground out to fly out ratio of 0.97 speaks to his control and ability to keep his pitches in the lower half of the strike zone. In 119 at bats the Phillies' current roster has a batting average of .202 and a .311 slugging average. Lohse has a sore knee, but he had that and a stomach virus when he faced the Braves last week and pitched 6 scoreless innings while giving up only 4 hits. The Phillies have struggled a bit at the plate in their last three games, batting .235 and slugging .373 while scoring only 11 runs. Every pitcher has a bad day, but Lohse's houdou figures to keep the Phillies' bats aslumber. That doesn't speak well for Joe Blanton who required a ton of run support just to garner two 'no decisions' in his first 4 starts. His 8.41 ERA is fairly bad, and his 1.97 WHIP is even worse. He stats from previous years suggest he is overdue for a solid performance, but it's unlikely he can match Lohse's game score. Philadelphia can win games by shelling the opposition's bullpen, but St. Louis can match them in that aspect. Truly, the only way I can see Philadelphia winning today is if Lohse's arm turns to rubber and the Cardinals' bullpen suddenly turns south.

8) Well, lesson learned from yesterday is that it's better to look at a players' production from the season and playoffs overall, rather than just the tiny subset of playoff games. Looking at the red line showing the distribution for Yao over the season and the yellow line showing Kobe's regular season distribution it appears Yao averages slightly more points and rebounds in away games than Kobe averages points in home games. Taking a look at the bar charts it's clear Yao has more games over 30 and that Kobe is the player who's shown he can defer on scoring and end up with under 20 points. In this Game 1 it will be interesting to see if Andrew Bynum gets his starting job back from Lamar Odom. I would not be surprised to see the offense run through Pau Gasol, and the risk with taking Ming here is that the Lakers will be trying to get Ming to commit fouls. The Rockets will rely on Shane Battier and, at times, Ron Artest to slow Bryant down. Look for Kobe to get his teammates involved on offense, and for that role to continue until the Lakers are down. Look for the Lakers to front Yao and defend him one-on-one until he turns inside to move towards the basket or take that fall away jumper. If the Lakers are quick with bringing the double team over Yao will find it difficult to score points. This should be close, but you never know when one player will be taken out of the offense.

May 3rd, 2009 Picks

Yarrrghghhgkslsk! Yarghklsk being a traditional Scythian pirate lament… unlike Manny Pacquiao avoided being drawn inside like 97.3% of the opponents Hatton had defeated I was drawn in to the Seattle Mariners like 97.3% of streakers who were defeated. I really thought Washburn would get a bit more support than all that. My first pick was Manchester City to win. They were aggressive right from the start and Calceido scored off of a rebound from in close at 27’. Robinho did the same at 34’ after a shot by Vincent Kompany was blocked, scoring from about 10 yards out in the center of the box. In first half injury time Blackburn Rovers were assessed a penalty for handball. Elano converted to make the score 3-0 Manchester City at the half. Blackburn Rovers started to realize they’d need a point in at least one of their final matches to avoid relegation and were extremely aggressive, but in their multitude of shots (10 in the second half) they were only able to get one goal, from Keith Andrews at 66’. The final score was Manchester City 3, Blackburn Rovers 1.

My second pick was the aforementioned Seattle Mariners. Trevor Cahill had a fairly good outing, allowing 1 earned run off of 7 hits in 6 innings pitched. His three walks to one strikeout were terrible but not costly as the Mariners struggled to string together hits. Jarrod Washburn had a great outing with 1 earned run off of 5 hits, while striking out 6 batters and walking 2. The Mariners’ bullpen could not hold on to the 2-1 lead they inherited, however, as they gave up one run each in the 8^th and 9^th innings. Mark Lowe gave up three hits and the tying run in the 8^th and David Aardsma, normally a solid closer, walked Crosby onto base, then gave up a pop fly that allowed him to advance, and a single to Petit that drove home the go-ahead run. Michael Wuertz held on for Oakland, retiring the three batters he faced. So yarghklsk, the picks, they await.

1) Cagliari @ Palermo – Cagliari win or draw
2) Athletic Bilbao @ Sporting Gijon – Athletic Bilbao win
3) Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers – Cleveland
4) Dwyane Wade vs. Joe Johnson – Wade pts.
5) Houston Astros @ Atlanta Braves – Houston
6) Tiger Woods vs. Rest Of Field – Woods wins the tournament
7) Ryan Getzlaf vs. Niklas Lidstrom – Lidstrom goals and ast.
8) Dirk Nowitzki vs. Carmelo Anthony – Anthony pts.
9) Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners – Seattle
10) Carolina Hurricanes @ Boston Bruins – Boston
11) Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers – Texas

Analysis
1) Cagliari Calcio will be without their captain in the backfield, Diego Lopez. This could be a major detriment to their side, but they won 3-2 away at Juventus and tied 1-1 away at Internazionale Milan back in January, both games with Lopez missing. U.S. Città di Palermo will be missing defenders Moris Carrozieri and Cesare Bovo, both of whom have started in over two thirds of Palermo’s matches. Looking at goals scored, home for Palermo and away for Cagliari, I would have to give Palermo the advantage, but when it comes to goals allowed Cagliari’s chances of winning or drawing look much better. Cagliari have scored at least one goal in 75% of their games so limiting Palermo to one goal will be the task for the Isolani. Palermo is 12-0-4 (W-D-L) at home with a plus-11 goal differential in Serie A competition this year while Cagliari is 4-4-8 with a minus-4 differential in away matches.

2) No major injury concerns plague either Athletic Bilbao or Sporting Gijon for this match. Sporting Gijon are fighting to avoid relegation after being promoted from the Segunda Liga last season. Athletic Bilbao have bigger things on their mind with a Copa del Rey final against Barçelona looming in just over a weeks time. On the one hand it’s perfect motivation for Sporting Gijon to be aggressive and overpowering and for Athletic Bilbao to eventually concede the match with lacklustre play. On the other hand, Athletic Bilbao is playing in their domestic Cup final against Barçelona and Sporting Gijon are about to be relegated back to the Segunda Liga after one season in the Primera Liga. In the Copa del Rey Athletic Bilbao eliminated Sporting Gijon with a 2-1 win away at Gijon back in January. Athletic Bilbao should win this game with superior quality to their side, but Sporting Gijon will not go down without a fight. Hell, I might even take Gijon myself, as the odds are truly even for either side to win.

4) The graphical analysis can be found in an earlier post. Suffice it to say that Joe Johnson has been having some of his worst games of the year in this series and Dwyane Wade has won this prop in 5 of the 6 games and pushed in the other.

5) The Atlanta Braves have the better bats with .255 season batting average and .384 season slugging average. Compare those with the Astros’ season batting numbers, .249 and .315. In their past three games Atlanta’s and Houston’s batting numbers are nearly identical, however. Their bullpens are both prone to give up runs, with Houston’s being especially prone to home runs having given up 13 in 84 relief innings pitched. The deciding factor for me here is Wandy Rodriguez on the mound for the Astros versus Jo-Jo Reyes for the Braves. Rodriguez has a 1.69 ERA and 1.03 WHIP so far this season, and Atlanta has hit well off of him in the past so I don’t expect him to shut down the Braves by any means. Jo-Jo Reyes has a 4.26 ERA and 1.11 WHIP so far this season with the Astros also hitting well off of him. Last season Reyes’ WHIP was 1.65 so I expect him to give up a few more runs to the Astros.

8) Once again the bulk of my analysis can be found here. Essentially the Spurs gave Dirk a lot of trouble and his playoff production has dropped significantly from what he was doing just in road games during the season. The Nuggets should give him just as much trouble, though it’s worth it to note that Nowitzki’s season high came in a game at Denver. Anthony has had no problems scoring against Dallas during the regular season and his scoring has increased during the playoffs so I have to take Anthony here.

11) John Danks is starting on the mound for the White Sox tonight in his first start since being knocked around for 4 innings against the Seattle Mariners. Danks picked up his first loss, a 9-1 loss for the Sox, giving up 5 earned runs on 8 hits. Even after that performance his ERA for the season is a very respectable 2.74 and his WHIP remains at 1.09. Matt Harrison is treading the opposite path, coming off his best start of the season after a horrendous start. He picked up his first win of the season, a 6-4 win over the Orioles, last Monday. It was a good thing he had the Rangers’ bats behind him as he gave up 4 runs on 7 hits in 7 innings. He struck out 3 batters and walked only 1, making it his first game of the season striking out more batters than he’d walked. Many people consider the White Sox to have one of the better batting orders in MLB, but if the White Sox are good then the Rangers are truly fearsome. They bat .273 on the season and slug an incredible .501 over 23 games. At Rangers Ballpark they are even better, batting .307 and slugging .556. The White Sox have a more solid bullpen when it comes to ERA and home runs given up per inning pitched and they’ll need that advantage against the Rangers tonight. If Danks gets knocked around again, and Harrison continues to find his groove, the White Sox could very well find themselves on the losing end of this series. I’m more inclined to think Harrison gets abused and taken out after 5 innings while Danks dials back in for this game.
UPDATE: The White Sox are missing a number of starters, including Jermaine Dye and Pierzynski. Their lead off man will be Jayson Nix, who is not even fully healthy and has posted poor numbers in the big leagues anyways. Corky Miller is batting .267 in 15 at bats and Wilson Betemit is batting .292 in 24 at bats, and both have shown an ability to rack up the total bases. I would still take the White Sox here.

Dirk vs. 'Melo; Sharp vs. Smooth; Soft vs. Soft

Above are plots identical to those used in the Wade vs. Johnson prop. The Poisson estimations use Nowitzki's road games and Anthony's home games as their basis. The same with the bar graphs. One can see that during the regular season Nowitzki averaged nearly 6 more points on the road than Anthony did at home. One can also see that Nowitzki's production in the playoffs has not even been close to what it was during the regular season. Anthony, on the other hand, has picked up his production in the playoffs. Both players scored over 20 points per game during the season when they met head-to-head. One interesting note is that Nowitzki's season high of 44 came in a game at Denver and that Anthony's season high of 43 came in a game at Dallas. Nowitzki's struggles in the playoffs can be forgiven a bit because Gregg Popovich's Spurs always have good strategies for containing their opponents' stars, but the Nuggets will present just as many, if not more problems, for Nowitzki to contend with.

Dwyane Wade vs. Joe Johnson - What's Wrong With Joe?

The graphs above show two things for both Dwyane Wade and Joe Johnson. The bar charts show how many games Wade scored a certain number of points on the road this season and in the playoffs, and for Johnson the number of points, rebounds, and assists he accumulated in home games during the season. The vertical axis is the number of games. The line graphs show the Poisson distribution of games with a certain number of points over a large number of games. The additional line graph for Joe Johnson shows the Poisson distribution of his points, rebounds, and assists over a large number of games based on his production at home in the playoffs. One can see that Johnson's numbers have dropped considerably from his regular season numbers and that during the regular season he could very well be expected to outscore Wade in this prop. In the playoffs Wade has scored more points in 5 of the 6 games played, and had the same number of points as Johnson's points, rebounds, and assists in the other game. It's possible Johnson might break out of his funk, but it's at least as likely that Wade will take over and dominate in this make or break Game 7.

May 2nd, 2009 Picks

2-1-0 day, which is pretty disappointing, considering the many fine picks available. My first pick was Sean O’Hair to card a lower front 9 score. I was asleep for this one, which is really for the best on these golf props. Exploring a suddenly labyrinthine childhood home is a helluva lot more fun than hoping Golfer X misses his 20 foot birdie putt. Sabbatini had a terrible start to his round hitting a double bogey on the 1^st hole and following it with a bogey on the 2^nd. He gained two strokes when O’Hair bogeyed the 4^th and Sabbatini birdied. Things got even more interesting on the par 5 7^th when O’Hair birdied but Sabbatini made a tough shot for eagle to even things up. Fortunately, it was Sabbatini who melted down, missing par putts on the final two holes. O’Hair won the prop 36 strokes to 38.

My second pick was Tiger Woods to card the lower second round score. Yes, I’m kicking myself somewhat for not going with the ‘gimmie’ of the day, but not too badly since Graham Taylor pitched a terrific game and Harden was pretty mundane. Woods came out swinging, and how! He came out swinging as if he’d just gotten off one of those tire swings where you twist the rope and let it spin round and round. He repeated his first round performance by missing most every fairway and his mid-range game was quite a bit worse as he birdied only three holes and those were canceled out with three bogeys. Furyk played a fantastic round, eagling the short par 4 14^th with a nice chip shot. He also birdied 6 other holes and would have been in the lead if not for two other bogeys. To add salt to the wound David Toms managed to stay at 1 under par, also beating Woods’ score. Furyk hit a 66, six strokes better than Tiger.

My final pick of the day was the Chicago White Sox, behind the pitching of Mark Buehrle. Buehrle was pretty damn good, but a solo home run against the first batter he faced, Ian Kinsler, and two more runs in the 3^rd inning put the Sox down 3-0 early. He finished well, allowing only 7 hits in 6 innings and recording an infinite SO:BB ratio with 2 strikeouts and 0 walks. Graham Taylor also did a terrific job, limiting the White Sox to one hit in the first 5 innings, and forcing ground outs on 7 of his first 9 outs. Taylor started out the 6^th inning well, striking out Ramirez and forcing Podsednik to ground out. It got bad after that as Getz and Fields singled, then advanced on a wild pitch before he walked Carlos Quentin to load the bases. Derek Holland came in to relieve him but gave up a grand double to Jim Thome, driving home all three runs and tying the game at 3-3. In the 7^th inning Holland gave up a single to Podsednik and a triple to Getz which gave the White Sox the 4-3 lead. Dotel and Linebrink held on for the Sox in the 7^th and 8^th innings and Bobby Jenks completed the save. So onward, upward, and whirling to the next picks.

1) Roger Federer vs. Novak Djokovic – Djokovic
2) Blackburn Rovers @ Manchester City – Manchester City win
3) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals – Pittsburgh
4) Phil Mickelson vs. Tiger Woods – Mickelson cards a lower 3rd round score
5) Camilo Villegas vs. Jim Furyk – Furyk cards a lower 3rd round score
6) New York Mets @ Philadelphis Phillies – New York
7) Dunkirk vs. Friesan Fire – Friesan Fire has a better finish
8) ‘I Want Revenge’ Final Position: 1st, 2nd, or 3rd vs. 4th or worse – 1st, 2nd, or 3rd
9) Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers – Arizona
10) Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays – Tampa Bay
11) Jeff Gordon vs. Jimmie Johnson – Gordon
12) Derrick Rose vs. Rajon Rondo – Rondo pts.
13) Chicago Blackhawks @ Vancouver Canucks – Vancouver
14) Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners – Seattle
15) Manny Pacquiao vs. Rick Hatton – Pacquiao wins by KO, TKO, or DQ

Analysis
1) Roger Federer is ranked #2 in the world and Novak Djokovic is ranked #3 at the moment. Novak Djokovic defeated Federer in their latest matchup 3-6 6-2 6-3 on hard court at the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Miami. You can look up each players year-to-date statistics and their head-to-head results on atptour.com. For your convenience here’s a link to Roger Federer’s profile and a link to Novak Djokovic’s profile. Djokovic is favored to win the match with 8:11 odds on him while Federer is at 11:10.

2) Manchester City have been playing very well lately, their latest result a 2-1 win away at Everton. Even more uplifting is the fact that Shaun Wright-Phillips and Craig Bellamy missed and Manchester City were still able to be aggressive and fairly dominate the match. Blackburn Rovers have also played well recently, with a 2-1 home win over Wigan Athletic most recently. Their away form has not been on the same level with a 0-1 loss at Stoke City and successive 0-4 losses to Liverpool and Arsenal most recently. Blackburn will be missing a number of players, most notably Jason Roberts and a number of other forwards, forcing defender Christopher Samba to play at that position. Manchester City are 11-0-6 (W-D-L) at home with a +19 goal differential while Blackburn Rovers are 4-4-9 away with a -15 differential. Check out RJtheGator’s blog for another perspective. Manchester City are truly better than their record shows and I think they have too much talent to miss out on three points at home against the Rovers.

3) The Pittsburgh Penguins travel to Washington D.C. to face the Washington Capitals in Game 1 of their second round series. The Capitals were 3-0-1 against the Penguins during the regular season, scoring 4.50 goals per game against Marc-Andre Fleury. The Capitals are starting Simeon Varlamov for this series who has performed remarkably well, allowing 1.40 goals in 6 games against the Rangers along with a .952 SV%. The Penguins defeated the Philadelphia Flyers in 6 games in their first round series, allowing 2.67 goals per game. Fleury recorded a .918 SV% on 194 shots against him. The Penguins scored an average of 3 goals in ithose 6 games and went 2-1-0 on the road in the series. Washington averaged 2.71 goals in their 7 game series and went 2-2-0 at home. If Simeon Varlamov can keep up the good work and Washington can limit Pittsburgh’s offense they should win this game, but I think Varlamov will be around .910 in saves and Pittsburgh wins in overtime.

5) This is the fourth time Jim Furyk has made the cut at Quail Hollow and the third time for Camilo Villegas. Click on the names for Jim Furyk’s and Camilo Villegas’ 2009 stats. Furyk has been more accurate off of the tee and has a slightly better scoring average than Villegas, but they are very well-matched statistically. In the 6 rounds Furyk has played after the cut at Quail Hollow he has carded scores of 71, 72, 68, 71, 69, and 66. In Villegas’ 4 post-cut rounds he has carded scores of 77, 75, 72, 72. You can also check out this hole-by-hole tour of Quail Hollow to see how difficult the course, and the greens especially, can be. I see Villegas as the more likely golfer to be overwhelmed and play a poor round.

6) In the past three years Jamie Moyer is 3-3 in 11 starts against the Mets and Oliver Perez is 1-3 in 9 starts against the Phillies. Perez has had a very poor start to his season with a 9.31 ERA and 1.97 WHIP and I expect him to get back on track in this game. The Mets have been batting .280 and slugging .480 in their last three games and I think they’ll begin to see more reward for their hitting than they have so far. If Perez does not have a good game the Phillies' bats are quite capable of outpacing the Mets'.

9) Dan Haren is starting for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and there is no other pitcher they’d rather have on the mound against a surging Brewers team. In his first 4 starts he’s recorded a 1.54 ERA and a WHIP of 0.74. Last season he had an incredible 5:1 SO:BB ratio and this year it’s even better at nearly 7:1. Braden Looper is starting for Milwaukee and he has been a strong point of their rotation this year. Last season he recorded an ERA of 4.16 and a WHIP of 1.31. Both pitchers have not quite mastered their control to keep their pitches in the lower half of the strike zone as each have gotten more fly outs than ground outs each season of their careers. Both teams are batting well, but not spectacular, with Milwaukee at .240 and Arizona at .234. Neither team’s bullpen is significantly better than the others, so whoever manages to score off of these starting pitchers will have a major advantage.

12) The Bulls’ role players, such as Kirk Hinrich, Brad Miller, and John Salmons, have all been stepping up big time in this series. That means the Celtics will not be able to focus on any one player. The Celtics’ best bet is to let Paul Pierce take on the task of containing Rose. Even if they choose to leave Rondo on Rose I like the Celtics’ physical defense to help in limiting his production. Rajon Rondo is so quick he should be able to get close range shots time and again. The bulk of my analysis can be found in my previous post.

15) Manny Pacquiao is 48-3-2 with 36 of those wins coming by knockout. Ricky Hatton is 45-1-0 with 32 knockouts. Even though Hatton is taller than Pacquiao by an inch Pacquiao has a longer reach, by two inches. You can check out Pacquiao’s stats and Hatton’s stats by clicking on their names. Vegas has Pacquiao as a large favorite at 10/27 and Hatton at 21/10.