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Ouch, my first winless day of the month as I went 0-3-0. I need to pick it up to finish over .500 on 600+ picks this round. My first pick was the over on Louisville versus Michigan State. Things started off slow immediately as the two teams combined to score 10 points in the first five minutes of the game. Michigan State played great defense and Terrence Williams disappeared from the game as he went 1 for 7 from the field. Altogether the two teams combined for 99 shots, whereas on the season they averaged 115 shots per game. Michigan State pulled away in the middle of the second half and downed the Cardinals 64-52 to make it to the Final Four in Detroit!
My second pick was the over on the North Carolina versus Oklahoma game. The teams started out flat again scoring 10 points in the first five minutes. The pace was slow again as 105 shots were taken by two teams who had averaged a combined 123 shots per game during the season. Tyler Hansbrough was ineffective for most of the game, but the rest of the Heels did more than enough against the Sooners. Blake Griffin had a slow and steady 23 points and 18 rebounds, but aside from him, Willie Warren, and Juan Pattillo the rest of the Sooners had 10 points total. Final score, North Carolina 72, Oklahoma 60.
My final pick was the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs had a four point lead going into the half, but the Hornets used a 9-0 run at the end of the third to go up by five in the final quarter. Chris Paul made a couple of amazing plays near the end leading to turnovers by San Antonio and even 6 straight points in 8 seconds near the end of the game could not unseat the Hornets. The clincher involved Chris Paul driving down the court, getting fouled, and flinging up a prayer from 40 feet out. The refs determined he intended to shoot the ball and granted the continuation and Chris Paul nailed three free throws to seal it. New Orleans won the game 90-86 and kept up in the race for home court. So on to the fracking picks.
1) Cambridge United @ Woking – Cambridge United win
2) New Jersey Devils @ New York Rangers – New York
3) Orlando Magic @ Miami Heat – Miami
4) David Lee reb. vs. Utah Jazz win margin – Utah win margin
5) UTEP @ Oregon State – Oregon State
Time to have fun tomorrow! Good luck!
Analysis
1) Cambridge United have 7 wins on the road all season. They won two away matches in the first 6 months of the season and have won 5 in the last two months, going 5-1-0 (W-D-L) in their last 6 away matches. Woking have gone 2-2-2 in their last 6 home matches, losing to Kettering Town and Eastbourne Borough, yet drawing against Burton Albion who are tops in the tables. Given that Cambridge United are playing their best on the road right now and they are 52 percent favorites in the European sports books I like their chances here.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) New York is 5-4-1 in their last 10 and New Jersey is also 5-4-1. New York is 4-1-0 in their last five home games. New Jersey is 1-3-1 in their last five away games. New Jersey is 3-2-0 against the Rangers head-to-head this season, with Clemmensen being in net for all three victories and Brodeur and Weekes each picking up a loss. Henrik Lundqvist was in net for New York in all five games. The Rangers are on a two game losing streak and the Devils are on a four game slide. The line for this game has opened with both teams at -110. I like the Rangers but much less so if Clemmensen is in net.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
4) David Lee averages 11.9 rebounds on the season and the Utah Jazz are 11 point favorites in Vegas. David Lee has been averaging 11.9 rebounds per game in his last 10 and 10.8 rebounds in his last 5 away games. Utah is 31-6 at home with their average margin of victory being 13.4 points, while New York has lost 25 games on the road by an average of 10.6 points.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
5) UTEP is a 1 point favorite in Vegas even though they’re on the road. UTEP has a greater rebounding margin on the season, and averaged more blocks and assists than Oregon State did. They have a much higher adjusted points rating, but they do come out with more empty possessions than Oregon State. Oregon State shoots better from the field and makes more three pointers. UTEP is a good free throw shooting team and shoots over three times as many free throws as Oregon State per game. Oregon State plays a zone defense which UTEP has seen in only a few games this season. UTEP won each game against the zone. Oregon State must win this game with the next two games in the CBI championship series being played in El Paso. Stefon Jackson will need to be able to get to the line often to help crack Oregon State’s zone as the Miners are not a great outside shooting team.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
And So It Goes....
Monday, March 30, 2009
Sunday, March 29, 2009
March 29th, 2009 Picks
Mired in the depths of the 1-3-0 day I knew I was lucky just to win one. My first pick was Bart Bryant to have the lower front 9 score, going against my coin which had failed me the two days previous. Bryant started out with two bogeys and was down two strokes going into the third hole. Amazingly Bryant holed out from 140 yards for an eagle while Lehman two putted from three feet for a double bogey putting Bryant up two strokes. Bryant bombed from there hitting into the water on the 6th and double bogeying that double dog leg. The round was tied after that but Lehman birdied the 8th hole and Bryant parred out to lose 38 strokes to 37.
My next pick was the home favorite, Wales. They were dominant in midfield in the first half spending most of their time in the danger zone of the Finns. Their attack was stalled, however, as they failed to take aggressive shots. Most of their attacks ended with pass after pass eventually being stolen by the Finnish defenders. In the 45th minute Hennessey made a huge blunder and left the net to try and reach a ball before Johansson could reach it. He was unable to and Johansson booted a shot which was partially deflected but still had enough juice to reach the net. Finland went into the half up 1-0. In the second half Finland rode that momentum and fairly outplayed the Welshmen. Finland tacked on a second goal in the 90th minute to wrap the game up, winning 2 to nil.
My third pick was the over in the Missouri/UCONN game. The first half went well with UCONN shooting 70% from the field and the teams combining for 82 points. They came out dull in the second half as the defenses began to wear on each other. Both teams shot under 30% for a good portion of the second half and it was just under seven and half minutes remaining before the first three pointer of the half was made. Missouri kept the game close and Matt Lawrence made a three with 45 seconds remaining to encourage the Tigers to keep fouling. Kemba Walker played amazing and made some incredible shots down the stretch for the Huskies. UCONN made their free throws and the two teams ended up scoring 157. Final score: UCONN 82, Missouri 75.
My final pick of the day was Ottawa over Atlanta. I had changed my pick away from Atlanta based on the information that Kari Lehtonen had been injured in their previous game against the New York Rangers on Thursday night. His replacement, Johan Hedberg, had some poor stats in 28 games this season. He gave up three goals and saved only 85% of Ottawa’s shots, but it was more than enough as Atlanta won 6-3. The key for Atlanta was a 2:58 period in the 2nd in which they scored three goals. Down 5-2 Ottawa was unable to mount a comeback and only hurt their chances in the third as they allowed frustration to mount resulting in penalties and power plays for the Thrashers. So on to the slim pickin’s!
1) Tiger Woods’ 4th Round Score: 68 or lower vs. 69 or higher – 69 or higher
2) Michigan State vs. Louisville – 140 points or more
3) Chivas USA vs. FC Dallas – Chivas USA win or draw
4) Oklahoma vs. North Carolina – 164 points or more
5) San Antonio Spurs vs. New Orleans Hornets – San Antonio
I’m really not sure about the OK/UNC o/u but the MSU/L’ville over seems pretty solid, though as we all know a poor shooting night can ruin an over. Good luck tomorrow everybody!!
Analysis
1) When I posted 68 or lower last night the weather report for Bay Hill had the sun coming out and the winds calming down to 10-15mph by the time of Tiger Woods’ round. Now the weather report says “WINDY”. Difficult pin placements on the green for the final round are normal. Tiger has hit a 66 and a 76 the last two years at Bay Hill since it went to a par 70 for the Tour.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) Louisville have Williams, Clark, Sosa, Smith, McGee. Five players who can shoot the three ball competently. I’m a little concerned about how much production Michigan State can expect from Kalin Lucas with Louisville’s defense seeming to specialize in shutting down guards. Raymay Morgan suffered a broken nose in the game against Kansas and will be wearing a non-fitted mask for protection against Kansas. Goran Suton, however, should be able to score 20 again on Samardo Samuels. Michigan State will need players like Draymond Green and Travis Walton to step up here. Based on their combined adjusted points rating I would give this a 70% chance of going over.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
4) Based on the two teams’ adjusted points ratings this one has just under a 55 percent chance of going over. Gonzaga and North Carolina went over 163 easily and I did not see much in Oklahoma’s defense to make me think they would do any better than Gonzaga against North Carolina. Oklahoma’s offense, on the other hand, is terrific with Willie Warren, Austin Johnson, Taylor Griffin, and obviously Blake Griffin.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
5) San Antonio is 22-13 on the road and New Orleans is 26-11 at home. The Hornets are on a two game losing streak and are 3-2 at home recently. The Spurs are on a three game winning streak an dare 3-2 on the road recently. Ginobili is playing again for the Spurs, while Peja Stojakovic is still out for New Orleans. Tyson Chandler (ankle) is also out for the Hornets tonight. James Posey (elbow) will certainly miss the game tonight now as he’s been suspended by the NBA for throwing a ball at a referee on Friday. Hilton Armstrong will start for Chandler even though he also has an ankle injury. The line for this game has moved from “pick ’em” to the Spurs being a 1.5 point favorite.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
My next pick was the home favorite, Wales. They were dominant in midfield in the first half spending most of their time in the danger zone of the Finns. Their attack was stalled, however, as they failed to take aggressive shots. Most of their attacks ended with pass after pass eventually being stolen by the Finnish defenders. In the 45th minute Hennessey made a huge blunder and left the net to try and reach a ball before Johansson could reach it. He was unable to and Johansson booted a shot which was partially deflected but still had enough juice to reach the net. Finland went into the half up 1-0. In the second half Finland rode that momentum and fairly outplayed the Welshmen. Finland tacked on a second goal in the 90th minute to wrap the game up, winning 2 to nil.
My third pick was the over in the Missouri/UCONN game. The first half went well with UCONN shooting 70% from the field and the teams combining for 82 points. They came out dull in the second half as the defenses began to wear on each other. Both teams shot under 30% for a good portion of the second half and it was just under seven and half minutes remaining before the first three pointer of the half was made. Missouri kept the game close and Matt Lawrence made a three with 45 seconds remaining to encourage the Tigers to keep fouling. Kemba Walker played amazing and made some incredible shots down the stretch for the Huskies. UCONN made their free throws and the two teams ended up scoring 157. Final score: UCONN 82, Missouri 75.
My final pick of the day was Ottawa over Atlanta. I had changed my pick away from Atlanta based on the information that Kari Lehtonen had been injured in their previous game against the New York Rangers on Thursday night. His replacement, Johan Hedberg, had some poor stats in 28 games this season. He gave up three goals and saved only 85% of Ottawa’s shots, but it was more than enough as Atlanta won 6-3. The key for Atlanta was a 2:58 period in the 2nd in which they scored three goals. Down 5-2 Ottawa was unable to mount a comeback and only hurt their chances in the third as they allowed frustration to mount resulting in penalties and power plays for the Thrashers. So on to the slim pickin’s!
1) Tiger Woods’ 4th Round Score: 68 or lower vs. 69 or higher – 69 or higher
2) Michigan State vs. Louisville – 140 points or more
3) Chivas USA vs. FC Dallas – Chivas USA win or draw
4) Oklahoma vs. North Carolina – 164 points or more
5) San Antonio Spurs vs. New Orleans Hornets – San Antonio
I’m really not sure about the OK/UNC o/u but the MSU/L’ville over seems pretty solid, though as we all know a poor shooting night can ruin an over. Good luck tomorrow everybody!!
Analysis
1) When I posted 68 or lower last night the weather report for Bay Hill had the sun coming out and the winds calming down to 10-15mph by the time of Tiger Woods’ round. Now the weather report says “WINDY”. Difficult pin placements on the green for the final round are normal. Tiger has hit a 66 and a 76 the last two years at Bay Hill since it went to a par 70 for the Tour.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) Louisville have Williams, Clark, Sosa, Smith, McGee. Five players who can shoot the three ball competently. I’m a little concerned about how much production Michigan State can expect from Kalin Lucas with Louisville’s defense seeming to specialize in shutting down guards. Raymay Morgan suffered a broken nose in the game against Kansas and will be wearing a non-fitted mask for protection against Kansas. Goran Suton, however, should be able to score 20 again on Samardo Samuels. Michigan State will need players like Draymond Green and Travis Walton to step up here. Based on their combined adjusted points rating I would give this a 70% chance of going over.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
4) Based on the two teams’ adjusted points ratings this one has just under a 55 percent chance of going over. Gonzaga and North Carolina went over 163 easily and I did not see much in Oklahoma’s defense to make me think they would do any better than Gonzaga against North Carolina. Oklahoma’s offense, on the other hand, is terrific with Willie Warren, Austin Johnson, Taylor Griffin, and obviously Blake Griffin.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
5) San Antonio is 22-13 on the road and New Orleans is 26-11 at home. The Hornets are on a two game losing streak and are 3-2 at home recently. The Spurs are on a three game winning streak an dare 3-2 on the road recently. Ginobili is playing again for the Spurs, while Peja Stojakovic is still out for New Orleans. Tyson Chandler (ankle) is also out for the Hornets tonight. James Posey (elbow) will certainly miss the game tonight now as he’s been suspended by the NBA for throwing a ball at a referee on Friday. Hilton Armstrong will start for Chandler even though he also has an ankle injury. The line for this game has moved from “pick ’em” to the Spurs being a 1.5 point favorite.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
Saturday, March 28, 2009
March 28th, 2009 Picks
And my slow decline continues from the 5-0-0 day with a 1-3-0 day. I took Mike Weir to start the day off. Weir started out alright until he reached hole #5. He hit out of bounds on his tee shot and then hit far into the rough in the same direction with his drop tee shot. He ended up with a double bogey on the hole and two over on the front nine. Zach Johnson also nearly hit par on the front nine except for a bogey on #8, finishing 1 over par. My next pick was Adam Scott. Things went much the same way with Scott hitting par on the first 12 holes and Cink hitting a double bogey and a birdie to go one over through 12. Adam Scott proceeded to melt down completely hitting seven over par on the last six holes with a triple bogey, a double bogey and two more bogeys. Cink, as might be expected, did better than that and finished the round six strokes ahead of Scott who failed to make the cut.
My third pick was the over in the Arizona/Louisville game. Both teams got off to a fast start and ended up with 77 points by halftime. Their pace only quickened in the second half and they reached 140 points with five minutes remaining. Louisville blew out Arizona by 39 points, winning 103-64.
My last pick of the day was Kansas. It looked good in the first half with Kansas taking a 13 point lead at one point and keeping a 7 point lead at the half. Michigan State came out strong in the second and were down 2 with 17 minutes to go. I’m amazed Kansas actually outrebounded Michigan State, held Kalin Lucas to under 20 points, and still lost. Kansas seemed to be complacent with the lead instead of staying aggressive to extend it. Cole Aldrich wore down in the second half as he tallied 6 rebounds, 5 points and 0 blocks compared to 8 rebounds, 12 points, and 4 blocks in the first half. Kansas could not execute against the Spartan defense in the final three minutes and Michigan State won a terrific game 67-62. So on to the picks, ja?
1) Tom Lehman vs. Bart Bryant – Bryant cards a lower front 9 score
2) Finland vs. Wales – Wales
3) Tiger Woods’ 3rd Round Score: 68 or lower vs. 69 or higher – 69 or higher
4) Scotland @ Netherlands – 2 goals or fewer
5) Missouri vs. UCONN – 150 points or more
6) Ottawa Senators vs. Atlanta Thrashers – Ottawa
7) Villanova vs. Pittsburgh – Pittsburgh
8) Columbus Blue Jackets @ St. Louis Blues – St. Louis
Remember, they’re in twosomes after the cut so the first golf matchup will be over quickly, and good luck!
Analysis
1) Tom Lehman won the first round front 9 by one stroke and Bart Bryant won the second round front 9 by one stroke. Tom Lehman has missed the cut in four of seven tournaments this year while Bryant has made the cut in all seven tournaments he’s played in. Bryant’s putting average is 1.778 in this tournament and Lehman’s is 1.789. Lehman has hit 52.8% greens in regulation and Bryant has hit 50.0%. Bryant has hit 2 birdies and 5 bogeys on the front 9 in the first two rounds. Lehman has hit 1 birdie and 5 bogeys. Bryant has hit 71.4% of his fairways and Lehman has hit 67.9%. I’ll go with Bryant here even though my coin selected Lehman.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Wales is undefeated at home in World Cup Qualifying competition, while Finland has not won on the road. The caveat is that Wales has defeated the bottom side of their group at home while Finland has lost, once, to the upper side. Craig Bellamy injured his knee against West Ham United on March 1st but played for Manchester City as a substitute as recently as March 22nd. He may still be nursing the injury but he is fit to play against Finland as the Welsh coach named him to the squad on March 16th. Wales is favored to win in this match, with a Finnish win getting a 27.9% chance in the European sports books and a Welsh win getting a 43.3% chance.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
4) The current odds are 50.7% for over 2.5 goals and 49.3% for under 2.5. Combined The Netherlands and Scotland have scored 7 goals in six matches and allowed 3 goals. That’s an average score of 1.67 goals. The Netherlands are known for being an up-tempo offensive team but have only scored two goals at most in matches against Iceland, Norway, and Macedonia. This could easily be 2-1 in favor of The Netherlands, but Scotland is a good defensive squad having allowed 1 goal in three matches against the same three squads.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
5) Missouri and Connecticut are both high powered offenses. Missouri played against a strong defensive squad in Memphis and posted 102 points in regulation. Connecticut will prove to be a tougher challenge, but Missouri leads the nation in assists and have a 1.53 assist to turnover ratio so they should be finding easy baskets even against the Huskies. Both teams play at a fast pace and combine for 120 shots, 50 free throw attempts, and 12 three pointers scored. If both teams shoot over 40 percent from the field and hit 65 percent of their free throws it should go over. Based on their adjusted points ratings and the difference between that and actual scores in 47 tournament games this year I would give the over an 80% chance of happening.
Confidence: W7 streak or less
6) Both teams are hot, Ottawa is 8-2-0 in their last 10 and Atlanta is 7-3-0. Atlanta is 4-1-0 in their last 5 home games and Ottawa is 2-3-0 in their last 5 away games. Lehtonen was injured on Thursday night against the Rangers. Dan Hedburg, who has a 3.65 GAA and an 88.1 SV%, will be in net for the Thrashers tonight which gives Ottawa the advantage here.
UPDATE: It’s Johan Hedburg, not Dan.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
8) Both Columbus and St. Louis are doing well recently with Columbus going 7-2-1 in their last 10 and St. Louis going 6-3-1. Both teams have victories against strong competition in that stretch. St. Louis is 4-1-0 at home recently and Columbus is 3-1-1 on the road. Columbus won their last game at home against Calgary 5-0. St. Louis is on a three game winning streak including a 3-2 win at Calgary and a 4-2 win at home against Vancouver. Head to head this season St. Louis is 2-1-0. St. Louis is currently the favorite at -120.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
My third pick was the over in the Arizona/Louisville game. Both teams got off to a fast start and ended up with 77 points by halftime. Their pace only quickened in the second half and they reached 140 points with five minutes remaining. Louisville blew out Arizona by 39 points, winning 103-64.
My last pick of the day was Kansas. It looked good in the first half with Kansas taking a 13 point lead at one point and keeping a 7 point lead at the half. Michigan State came out strong in the second and were down 2 with 17 minutes to go. I’m amazed Kansas actually outrebounded Michigan State, held Kalin Lucas to under 20 points, and still lost. Kansas seemed to be complacent with the lead instead of staying aggressive to extend it. Cole Aldrich wore down in the second half as he tallied 6 rebounds, 5 points and 0 blocks compared to 8 rebounds, 12 points, and 4 blocks in the first half. Kansas could not execute against the Spartan defense in the final three minutes and Michigan State won a terrific game 67-62. So on to the picks, ja?
1) Tom Lehman vs. Bart Bryant – Bryant cards a lower front 9 score
2) Finland vs. Wales – Wales
3) Tiger Woods’ 3rd Round Score: 68 or lower vs. 69 or higher – 69 or higher
4) Scotland @ Netherlands – 2 goals or fewer
5) Missouri vs. UCONN – 150 points or more
6) Ottawa Senators vs. Atlanta Thrashers – Ottawa
7) Villanova vs. Pittsburgh – Pittsburgh
8) Columbus Blue Jackets @ St. Louis Blues – St. Louis
Remember, they’re in twosomes after the cut so the first golf matchup will be over quickly, and good luck!
Analysis
1) Tom Lehman won the first round front 9 by one stroke and Bart Bryant won the second round front 9 by one stroke. Tom Lehman has missed the cut in four of seven tournaments this year while Bryant has made the cut in all seven tournaments he’s played in. Bryant’s putting average is 1.778 in this tournament and Lehman’s is 1.789. Lehman has hit 52.8% greens in regulation and Bryant has hit 50.0%. Bryant has hit 2 birdies and 5 bogeys on the front 9 in the first two rounds. Lehman has hit 1 birdie and 5 bogeys. Bryant has hit 71.4% of his fairways and Lehman has hit 67.9%. I’ll go with Bryant here even though my coin selected Lehman.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Wales is undefeated at home in World Cup Qualifying competition, while Finland has not won on the road. The caveat is that Wales has defeated the bottom side of their group at home while Finland has lost, once, to the upper side. Craig Bellamy injured his knee against West Ham United on March 1st but played for Manchester City as a substitute as recently as March 22nd. He may still be nursing the injury but he is fit to play against Finland as the Welsh coach named him to the squad on March 16th. Wales is favored to win in this match, with a Finnish win getting a 27.9% chance in the European sports books and a Welsh win getting a 43.3% chance.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
4) The current odds are 50.7% for over 2.5 goals and 49.3% for under 2.5. Combined The Netherlands and Scotland have scored 7 goals in six matches and allowed 3 goals. That’s an average score of 1.67 goals. The Netherlands are known for being an up-tempo offensive team but have only scored two goals at most in matches against Iceland, Norway, and Macedonia. This could easily be 2-1 in favor of The Netherlands, but Scotland is a good defensive squad having allowed 1 goal in three matches against the same three squads.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
5) Missouri and Connecticut are both high powered offenses. Missouri played against a strong defensive squad in Memphis and posted 102 points in regulation. Connecticut will prove to be a tougher challenge, but Missouri leads the nation in assists and have a 1.53 assist to turnover ratio so they should be finding easy baskets even against the Huskies. Both teams play at a fast pace and combine for 120 shots, 50 free throw attempts, and 12 three pointers scored. If both teams shoot over 40 percent from the field and hit 65 percent of their free throws it should go over. Based on their adjusted points ratings and the difference between that and actual scores in 47 tournament games this year I would give the over an 80% chance of happening.
Confidence: W7 streak or less
6) Both teams are hot, Ottawa is 8-2-0 in their last 10 and Atlanta is 7-3-0. Atlanta is 4-1-0 in their last 5 home games and Ottawa is 2-3-0 in their last 5 away games. Lehtonen was injured on Thursday night against the Rangers. Dan Hedburg, who has a 3.65 GAA and an 88.1 SV%, will be in net for the Thrashers tonight which gives Ottawa the advantage here.
UPDATE: It’s Johan Hedburg, not Dan.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
8) Both Columbus and St. Louis are doing well recently with Columbus going 7-2-1 in their last 10 and St. Louis going 6-3-1. Both teams have victories against strong competition in that stretch. St. Louis is 4-1-0 at home recently and Columbus is 3-1-1 on the road. Columbus won their last game at home against Calgary 5-0. St. Louis is on a three game winning streak including a 3-2 win at Calgary and a 4-2 win at home against Vancouver. Head to head this season St. Louis is 2-1-0. St. Louis is currently the favorite at -120.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
Friday, March 27, 2009
March 27th, 2009 Picks
Ach, another 2-2-0 day. It started out rough as I woke up to Charles Howell III being down two strokes to Pat Perez. He had chances to make up ground but missed a number of three foot putts. Fittingly he had a chance to win the back 9 but missed a 3 foot putt by over 9 feet. It was a downhill putt, presumably. My next pick was Tiger Woods scoring 68 or under in the first round. It started out nicely with him chipping in from 33 yards out for birdie. He then hit par until #6 where he hit into the water and ended up with a double bogey. He finished the front nine 1 over. On the back nine he found his stroke as he birdied four consecutive holes to go 3 under overall. He bogeyed the 17th but safely hit par on the final hole to finish with a score of 68 exactly.
I then moved on to Connecticut winning margin. UCONN looked to be the superior team through most of the game, despite the Purdue defense limiting them to 30 first half points. The Huskies showed they have great defense as well with Purdue scoring 25. Purdue made small runs, keyed by Robbie Hummel and JaJuan Johnson, but Connecticut always had an answer. In the end UCONN won by 12, 72-60. Pittsburgh was down by 8 at the half to Xavier and only managed to take the lead for good in the final minute. Final score Pittsburgh 60, Xavier 55. My final pick was Edmonton over Phoenix. It looked bad from the start as Phoenix scored on their first shot of the game and had 3 goals on 15 shots through two periods. Edmonton made a run with two goals within a minute during the third but could not find the net to send the game into overtime. Phoenix denied the Oilers two points, winning 3-2. So on to the dang picks.
1) Mike Weir vs. Zach Johnson – Weir cards a lower front 9 score
2) Stewart Cink vs. Adam Scott – Scott cards a lower 2nd round score
3) Arizona vs. Louisville – 140 points or more
4) Syracuse vs. Oklahoma – Syracuse
5) New Jersey Devils @ Chicago Blackhawks – Chicago
6) Kansas vs. Michigan State – Kansas
7) Gonzaga vs. North Carolina – 163 points or more
8) Memphis Grizzlies @ Sacramento Kings – Sacramento
At this point adjusted points rating and rebounding margin are the only two statistical categories predicting over 60% of the winners in games. Overall, in close games, adjusted points rating is a better predictor than rebounding margin. Adjusted points predicts 29 of 43 winners, and rebounding margin 26 of 43.
Analysis
1) In tournaments this year Mike Weir has tended to hit the same score on the front 9 in the first and second rounds. Johnson has either hit the same score or hit a few strokes better in the second round. They have nearly identical scoring averages, but Johnson tends to hit more greens in regulation. Weir makes up for that with a greater scrambling percentage and a lower number of putts per round than Johnson. That happens when one golfer hits onto the green with a 30’ birdie putt and the other scrambles to get a short chip shot, leaving themselves with a 10’ putt for par. Weir does have a better overall putting average, however, indicating he makes long putts more often than Johnson does. Johnson and Weir have alternated with each other in terms of monetary winnings, and this year it’s Johnson’s turn to win big. So flip a coin, Johnson is a good pick, I’m going with Weir, and have fun!
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Cink is a good golfer and hit two strokes better than Adam Scott in the first round, despite hitting a double bogey on that wicked double dog-leg on #6. Statistically the two are very similar in nearly every category. Adam Scott does have a better putting average. Over the past four years Adam Scott has won 3 tournaments and placed in the top 3 eleven times, whereas Cink has done this eight times. This year Cink has scored better than Scott in the second round in all three tournaments they’ve both participated in. I like Scott’s lower putting average and think he’ll do better on the back 9 this time around.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Arizona has had 14 of 34 games go over 139 points in regulation. Louisville has had 12 of 35 games go over 139 points. In the vast majority of the games that went under it was their opponents who failed to score. Both teams have played UAB this season and both of those games went over. Louisville’s defense is formidable but the quickness of Nic Wise, Jordan Hill, and Chase Budinger should allow Arizona to get easy points around the basket. If the referees allow defenders to make contact beneath the rim, however, it will force the teams to score from the perimeter. Fortunately they each shoot over 45% from the field and over 36% from three point range. Of course, if one or both teams have poor shooting nights the game could go under. Each team has scored over 70 points in their tournament games so far and I think they’ll each score over 70 again tonight.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
6) Michigan State defeated Kansas by 12 points in the regular season. It was a home game for Michigan State. Sherron Collins had 8 turnovers. The Spartans lead the nation in rebounding margin and I expect them to have a sizable advantage on the boards this time around as well. Kansas has a higher adjusted points rating and plays at a faster pace than Michigan state in general. Kansas is a better three point shooting team though Michigan State limits it’s opponents to 31.6% shooting. Kansas averages more blocks and steals than Michigan State. Kansas shoots a higher percentage from the field and from the free throw line. Michigan State averages one more empty possession per game than Kansas. I like Cole Aldrich in the middle and think Sherron Collins will do a better job not turning the ball over. I also think Kansas will limit Kalin Lucas to under 20 points this time around.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
8) Sacramento is 10-24 at home while Memphis is 5-29 on the road. Sacramento has 10 home wins this season mainly due to playing teams like Memphis. Sacramento is 1-4 at home recently with a victory over Denver, but that was with Andres Nocioni in the lineup. Memphis is 1-4 on the road recently with a victory over Detroit, but that was with Rasheed Wallace out of the lineup. Andres Nocioni will be out for tonight’s game. Sacramento is a 2 to 3 point favorite.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
I then moved on to Connecticut winning margin. UCONN looked to be the superior team through most of the game, despite the Purdue defense limiting them to 30 first half points. The Huskies showed they have great defense as well with Purdue scoring 25. Purdue made small runs, keyed by Robbie Hummel and JaJuan Johnson, but Connecticut always had an answer. In the end UCONN won by 12, 72-60. Pittsburgh was down by 8 at the half to Xavier and only managed to take the lead for good in the final minute. Final score Pittsburgh 60, Xavier 55. My final pick was Edmonton over Phoenix. It looked bad from the start as Phoenix scored on their first shot of the game and had 3 goals on 15 shots through two periods. Edmonton made a run with two goals within a minute during the third but could not find the net to send the game into overtime. Phoenix denied the Oilers two points, winning 3-2. So on to the dang picks.
1) Mike Weir vs. Zach Johnson – Weir cards a lower front 9 score
2) Stewart Cink vs. Adam Scott – Scott cards a lower 2nd round score
3) Arizona vs. Louisville – 140 points or more
4) Syracuse vs. Oklahoma – Syracuse
5) New Jersey Devils @ Chicago Blackhawks – Chicago
6) Kansas vs. Michigan State – Kansas
7) Gonzaga vs. North Carolina – 163 points or more
8) Memphis Grizzlies @ Sacramento Kings – Sacramento
At this point adjusted points rating and rebounding margin are the only two statistical categories predicting over 60% of the winners in games. Overall, in close games, adjusted points rating is a better predictor than rebounding margin. Adjusted points predicts 29 of 43 winners, and rebounding margin 26 of 43.
Analysis
1) In tournaments this year Mike Weir has tended to hit the same score on the front 9 in the first and second rounds. Johnson has either hit the same score or hit a few strokes better in the second round. They have nearly identical scoring averages, but Johnson tends to hit more greens in regulation. Weir makes up for that with a greater scrambling percentage and a lower number of putts per round than Johnson. That happens when one golfer hits onto the green with a 30’ birdie putt and the other scrambles to get a short chip shot, leaving themselves with a 10’ putt for par. Weir does have a better overall putting average, however, indicating he makes long putts more often than Johnson does. Johnson and Weir have alternated with each other in terms of monetary winnings, and this year it’s Johnson’s turn to win big. So flip a coin, Johnson is a good pick, I’m going with Weir, and have fun!
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Cink is a good golfer and hit two strokes better than Adam Scott in the first round, despite hitting a double bogey on that wicked double dog-leg on #6. Statistically the two are very similar in nearly every category. Adam Scott does have a better putting average. Over the past four years Adam Scott has won 3 tournaments and placed in the top 3 eleven times, whereas Cink has done this eight times. This year Cink has scored better than Scott in the second round in all three tournaments they’ve both participated in. I like Scott’s lower putting average and think he’ll do better on the back 9 this time around.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Arizona has had 14 of 34 games go over 139 points in regulation. Louisville has had 12 of 35 games go over 139 points. In the vast majority of the games that went under it was their opponents who failed to score. Both teams have played UAB this season and both of those games went over. Louisville’s defense is formidable but the quickness of Nic Wise, Jordan Hill, and Chase Budinger should allow Arizona to get easy points around the basket. If the referees allow defenders to make contact beneath the rim, however, it will force the teams to score from the perimeter. Fortunately they each shoot over 45% from the field and over 36% from three point range. Of course, if one or both teams have poor shooting nights the game could go under. Each team has scored over 70 points in their tournament games so far and I think they’ll each score over 70 again tonight.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
6) Michigan State defeated Kansas by 12 points in the regular season. It was a home game for Michigan State. Sherron Collins had 8 turnovers. The Spartans lead the nation in rebounding margin and I expect them to have a sizable advantage on the boards this time around as well. Kansas has a higher adjusted points rating and plays at a faster pace than Michigan state in general. Kansas is a better three point shooting team though Michigan State limits it’s opponents to 31.6% shooting. Kansas averages more blocks and steals than Michigan State. Kansas shoots a higher percentage from the field and from the free throw line. Michigan State averages one more empty possession per game than Kansas. I like Cole Aldrich in the middle and think Sherron Collins will do a better job not turning the ball over. I also think Kansas will limit Kalin Lucas to under 20 points this time around.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
8) Sacramento is 10-24 at home while Memphis is 5-29 on the road. Sacramento has 10 home wins this season mainly due to playing teams like Memphis. Sacramento is 1-4 at home recently with a victory over Denver, but that was with Andres Nocioni in the lineup. Memphis is 1-4 on the road recently with a victory over Detroit, but that was with Rasheed Wallace out of the lineup. Andres Nocioni will be out for tonight’s game. Sacramento is a 2 to 3 point favorite.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
Thursday, March 26, 2009
March 26th, 2009 Picks
Back to a 1-2-0 day. It started out with CASHPOINT SC Rheindorf Altach managing their first draw of the season on the road against Kapfenberg SV. Kapfenberg scored early in the second half to go up 1-0 but then gave up a goal 16 minutes later. Kapfenberg created more and better scoring opportunities but could not capitalize. SC Rheindorf Altach made a wicked goal from the left side of the box, the guy had his back to the goal but still managed to whip it into the upper right corner. End result, 1-1 draw.
I then took Notre Dame and they did a good job shooting their three pointers. Notre Dame advanced to the NIT semi-finals with a 77-67 victory over Kentucky. Kentucky only had 10 turnovers in the game but Notre Dame improved on their #1 ranking for fewest turnovers per game by having only 6. Jodie Meeks had a nice outing with 21 points on 6 for 10 shooting but Luke Harangody was the difference as he went for 30 points and 11 rebounds. Kentucky never really threatened in the second half with Notre Dame leading by at least 5 after the break.
My last pick was St. Mary’s over SDSU. It was a blowout right from the start as the Aztecs took a 15-0 lead. Patty Mills shot 7 for 24 from the field and made a few huge mistakes at the end that prevented the Gaels from tying SDSU or taking the lead. Billy White had a great game for SDSU scoring 17 points on 8 for 12 shooting. The Aztecs played strong defense, keeping St. Mary’s below 40 percent shooting for the night. St. Mary’s never fully recovered from the first five minutes of the game and San Diego State advances with a 70-66 win. So on to the picks.
1) Charles Howell III vs. Pat Perez – Howell III cards a lower front 9 score
2) Tiger Woods’ First Round Score: 68 or under vs. 69 or over – 68 or under
3) Calgary Flames @ Columbus Blue Jackets – Columbus
4) Connecticut win margin vs. Pittsburgh win margin – Connecticut win margin
5) Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls – Chicago
6) Vancouver Canucks @ St. Louis Blues – St. Louis
7) Villanova vs. Duke – Duke
8) Edmonton Oilers @ Phoenix Coyotes – Edmonton
Analysis
1) Analysis. I’m a bit lax on the use of that word here. I flipped a coin and it ended up heads so I picked Howell III. It’s a mere coincidence that of the five tournaments he and Perez have both played Perez has never shot a lower score on the front 9. Howell has gone lower 3 times and they tied twice.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) It’s a par 70, 2 under isn’t much. Woods shot 1 under, 2 under, 4 under, and 4 under at the Transitions Open last week. He’s slowly getting better and I think there’s a good chance he can continue to progress in this tournament.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) Connecticut handed Texas A&M a 26 point loss, while Pittsburgh only pulled away from Oklahoma State near the end to win by 8. The Aggies and Cowboys were each 9-7 in Big 12 play and split their two games over the regular season. Now Pittsburgh is playing another team who can shoot the three point shot with Xavier going at a 39.9% clip. To top it off Xavier is bigger and more physical than Oklahoma State, with a +8.4 rebounding margin compared to Oklahoma State’s -1.1 margin. Connecticut will have size on Purdue, with advantages in rebounding margin, adjusted points, and three more blocks per game. Purdue shoots and makes more three pointers, but I expect them to be outmatched by Connecticut while Xavier will give Pittsburgh a good game.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
7) Duke and Villanova match up very closely statistically. Villanova’s biggest advantage is in field goal percentage defense where they limit opponents to 40.6% from the field compared to Duke’s opponents who have shot 43.4%. Villanova also has an advantage in rebounding margin. Duke forces more turnovers than Villanova and have a higher adjusted points rating, mainly due to Villanova having nearly two extra empty possessions. Duke will need to force those turnovers to win in a close game and have great shooting nights from Singler, Scheyer, and Henderson. Villanova has a mob of great athletes that gives them the advantage in my opinion, but Duke is a two point favorite in Vegas. That, along with the advantage in blocks, steals, and adjusted points leads me to believe Duke should win a very, very close game.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
8) Edmonton is a -130 favorite on the road and Phoenix is a +110 underdog. Edmonton is 3-0-0 against Phoenix this season. Dwayne Roloson has a 2.75 goals against average with 91.6 SV% for the Oilers. Ilya Bryzgalov has a 2.92 GAA with a 90.9 SV%. The Oilers are 3-1-1 in their last 5 road games and Phoenix is 2-2-1 in their last 5 home games. Phoenix’s two home wins recently were against San Jose and Vancouver so they are dangerous, but the trends and the odds say to go with Edmonton here.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
I then took Notre Dame and they did a good job shooting their three pointers. Notre Dame advanced to the NIT semi-finals with a 77-67 victory over Kentucky. Kentucky only had 10 turnovers in the game but Notre Dame improved on their #1 ranking for fewest turnovers per game by having only 6. Jodie Meeks had a nice outing with 21 points on 6 for 10 shooting but Luke Harangody was the difference as he went for 30 points and 11 rebounds. Kentucky never really threatened in the second half with Notre Dame leading by at least 5 after the break.
My last pick was St. Mary’s over SDSU. It was a blowout right from the start as the Aztecs took a 15-0 lead. Patty Mills shot 7 for 24 from the field and made a few huge mistakes at the end that prevented the Gaels from tying SDSU or taking the lead. Billy White had a great game for SDSU scoring 17 points on 8 for 12 shooting. The Aztecs played strong defense, keeping St. Mary’s below 40 percent shooting for the night. St. Mary’s never fully recovered from the first five minutes of the game and San Diego State advances with a 70-66 win. So on to the picks.
1) Charles Howell III vs. Pat Perez – Howell III cards a lower front 9 score
2) Tiger Woods’ First Round Score: 68 or under vs. 69 or over – 68 or under
3) Calgary Flames @ Columbus Blue Jackets – Columbus
4) Connecticut win margin vs. Pittsburgh win margin – Connecticut win margin
5) Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls – Chicago
6) Vancouver Canucks @ St. Louis Blues – St. Louis
7) Villanova vs. Duke – Duke
8) Edmonton Oilers @ Phoenix Coyotes – Edmonton
Analysis
1) Analysis. I’m a bit lax on the use of that word here. I flipped a coin and it ended up heads so I picked Howell III. It’s a mere coincidence that of the five tournaments he and Perez have both played Perez has never shot a lower score on the front 9. Howell has gone lower 3 times and they tied twice.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) It’s a par 70, 2 under isn’t much. Woods shot 1 under, 2 under, 4 under, and 4 under at the Transitions Open last week. He’s slowly getting better and I think there’s a good chance he can continue to progress in this tournament.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) Connecticut handed Texas A&M a 26 point loss, while Pittsburgh only pulled away from Oklahoma State near the end to win by 8. The Aggies and Cowboys were each 9-7 in Big 12 play and split their two games over the regular season. Now Pittsburgh is playing another team who can shoot the three point shot with Xavier going at a 39.9% clip. To top it off Xavier is bigger and more physical than Oklahoma State, with a +8.4 rebounding margin compared to Oklahoma State’s -1.1 margin. Connecticut will have size on Purdue, with advantages in rebounding margin, adjusted points, and three more blocks per game. Purdue shoots and makes more three pointers, but I expect them to be outmatched by Connecticut while Xavier will give Pittsburgh a good game.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
7) Duke and Villanova match up very closely statistically. Villanova’s biggest advantage is in field goal percentage defense where they limit opponents to 40.6% from the field compared to Duke’s opponents who have shot 43.4%. Villanova also has an advantage in rebounding margin. Duke forces more turnovers than Villanova and have a higher adjusted points rating, mainly due to Villanova having nearly two extra empty possessions. Duke will need to force those turnovers to win in a close game and have great shooting nights from Singler, Scheyer, and Henderson. Villanova has a mob of great athletes that gives them the advantage in my opinion, but Duke is a two point favorite in Vegas. That, along with the advantage in blocks, steals, and adjusted points leads me to believe Duke should win a very, very close game.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
8) Edmonton is a -130 favorite on the road and Phoenix is a +110 underdog. Edmonton is 3-0-0 against Phoenix this season. Dwayne Roloson has a 2.75 goals against average with 91.6 SV% for the Oilers. Ilya Bryzgalov has a 2.92 GAA with a 90.9 SV%. The Oilers are 3-1-1 in their last 5 road games and Phoenix is 2-2-1 in their last 5 home games. Phoenix’s two home wins recently were against San Jose and Vancouver so they are dangerous, but the trends and the odds say to go with Edmonton here.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
March 25th, 2009 Picks
2-1-0 day today. It started off shaky with Hereford scoring an early goal on Carlisle before 10 minutes had even gone by. The quickly upped their lead to two twenty minutes later. Carlisle got a goal in first half injury time to give hope to those who had picked them to win but the Hereford United defense remained strong and both sides went scoreless in the second half. Hereford United picked up their third away win in 20 matches. Then I went with Auburn on the three point prop. It was close most of the way through the game with 7 threes apiece down into the final three minutes. Auburn hit a couple of threes to cut into Baylor’s threes and Baylor made sure to take shots from the paint with the dwindling lead. Jerrell, Carter, and Dunn combined for 6 of Baylor’s 7 threes. Reed and Waller hit four threes and Rasheem Barrett stepped up big with 3 of 5 shooting from behind the arc. Baylor held on to win 74-72.
I’d like to apologize for the misinformation about Jonas Hiller playing for Anaheim against Nashville. Giguere played great and the game went to a shootout. The Predators missed their first two attempts before they forced Giguere to make some saves. Eventually Rinne let one through and Anaheim prevailed. My last pick was Williams and Boozer to score more points. The two duos were within three points of one another all the way. Deron hit a jumper with two minutes to go to put the Jazz duo up by 1. 30 seconds later Adelman conceded the game and took Artest and Yao off the court. Williams and Boozer outscored Ming and Artest 32 to 27 and the Jazz won 99-86. So for now we will go onward unto the picks.
1) SC Rheindorf Altach @ Kapfenberg SV – Kapfenberg SV win
2) Kentucky @ Notre Dame – Notre Dame
3) Calgary Flames @ Pittsburgh Penguins – Pittsburgh
4) Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic – Boston
5) San Jose Sharks @ Chicago Blackhawks – San Jose
6) Anaheim Ducks @ Colorado Avalanche – Anaheim
7) St. Mary’s @ San Diego State – St. Mary’s
8) Utah Jazz @ Phoenix Suns – Utah
Analysis
1) SC Rheindorf Altach is 1-11-0 (W-L-D) in away matches this season. Their single victory was against LASK Linz who have a minus 10 goal differential at home this season. Kapfenberg SV have a plus 2 goal differential. They’re not a very good team either, but are 6-5-2 at home. SC Rheindorf Altach have given up 42 goals in 12 away matches, 3.5 per match! They’ve only scored 13 goals in those 12 matches as well. Of course SC Rheindorf Altach could win or draw in this game, but since they never have drawn a match on the road and since they’ve won less than 10% of their matches on the road I’ll go with Kapfenberg SV.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) Notre Dame is at home against Kentucky tonight. The Wildcats should have an advantage on the boards though Zeller and Harangody should do well against a generally undersized Kentucky team. Against Creighton Kentucky had the biggest men on the court, but in this game Notre Dame will have that advantage so look for Meeks to have a bigger role over Patterson tonight. Kentucky is a good defensive team with their opponents shooting only 38.8% from the field compared to Notre Dame’s opponents who shoot 42.7%. Kentucky should also have the advantage in blocks and steals. Notre Dame will have to make their three pointers when Harangody is double teamed to maintain and extend a lead against Kentucky and they should with 39.6% shooting from beyond the arc this season. Kentucky averages an astounding 17.2 turnovers per game. Notre Dame averages 9.7 turnovers per game. So if Kentucky can play good defense, disrupting Notre Dame, and avoid turning the ball over constantly they have a good chance to win this game. If Notre Dame can manage to shoot 40% from the field, prevent Kentucky from scoring too many dunks and layups, and force even 12 turnovers they will almost assuredly win.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
7) Even as a Mountain West fan I, like most of America, have rarely seen San Diego State play. San Diego State is favored by 3.5 at home. St. Mary’s has a pretty sizable advantage in adjusted points and rebounding margin so I expect Samhan and Simpson to do well on the boards for the Gaels. San Diego State has more empty possessions than St. Mary’s and fewer total possessions on average. St. Mary’s gets more blocks, but San Diego State grabs more steals. San Diego State’s opponents shoot a lower percentage from the field and from three point range than St. Mary’s opponents. The Aztecs shoot the three ball at 34.7% compared to 33.6 percent for St. Mary’s. When San Diego State lost by 3 to St. Mary’s on a neutral court they shot 33.3% from the free throw line, yet are a 70% shooting team on the season, ergo St. Mary’s was lucky to have won that game. I have to give St. Mary’s the advantage based on offensive efficiency in the end, but if Kyle Spain is lighting things up San Diego State should win.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
8) Phoenix is on a five game winning streak following a six game losing streak, with two of those wins being against teams with a better than .500 record and all but one game being at home. The Utah Jazz are at full strength and have been playing well since the All-Star break with an NBA best 14-3 record. All three losses came on the road to Atlanta, Miami, and Orlando. Phoenix is without Leandro Barbosa for this game and Stoudemire is out for the season. Phoenix won at home against the Jazz by 2 earlier in the season. Carlos Boozer was out with injury for that game and Phoenix still had Raja Bell, Boris Diaw, Leandro Barbosa, and Amare Stoudemire. Phoenix has added Matt Barnes and Jason Richardson since then, but I don’t see them making up for the loss of Bell, Diaw, Barbosa, and Stoudemire. The Jazz are 14-20 on the road with 13 of those wins coming against sub-.500 teams. Phoenix is a 3 point favorite. I’ll be going with the better team here and give them a shot on the road now that they’re at full-strength.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
I’d like to apologize for the misinformation about Jonas Hiller playing for Anaheim against Nashville. Giguere played great and the game went to a shootout. The Predators missed their first two attempts before they forced Giguere to make some saves. Eventually Rinne let one through and Anaheim prevailed. My last pick was Williams and Boozer to score more points. The two duos were within three points of one another all the way. Deron hit a jumper with two minutes to go to put the Jazz duo up by 1. 30 seconds later Adelman conceded the game and took Artest and Yao off the court. Williams and Boozer outscored Ming and Artest 32 to 27 and the Jazz won 99-86. So for now we will go onward unto the picks.
1) SC Rheindorf Altach @ Kapfenberg SV – Kapfenberg SV win
2) Kentucky @ Notre Dame – Notre Dame
3) Calgary Flames @ Pittsburgh Penguins – Pittsburgh
4) Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic – Boston
5) San Jose Sharks @ Chicago Blackhawks – San Jose
6) Anaheim Ducks @ Colorado Avalanche – Anaheim
7) St. Mary’s @ San Diego State – St. Mary’s
8) Utah Jazz @ Phoenix Suns – Utah
Analysis
1) SC Rheindorf Altach is 1-11-0 (W-L-D) in away matches this season. Their single victory was against LASK Linz who have a minus 10 goal differential at home this season. Kapfenberg SV have a plus 2 goal differential. They’re not a very good team either, but are 6-5-2 at home. SC Rheindorf Altach have given up 42 goals in 12 away matches, 3.5 per match! They’ve only scored 13 goals in those 12 matches as well. Of course SC Rheindorf Altach could win or draw in this game, but since they never have drawn a match on the road and since they’ve won less than 10% of their matches on the road I’ll go with Kapfenberg SV.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) Notre Dame is at home against Kentucky tonight. The Wildcats should have an advantage on the boards though Zeller and Harangody should do well against a generally undersized Kentucky team. Against Creighton Kentucky had the biggest men on the court, but in this game Notre Dame will have that advantage so look for Meeks to have a bigger role over Patterson tonight. Kentucky is a good defensive team with their opponents shooting only 38.8% from the field compared to Notre Dame’s opponents who shoot 42.7%. Kentucky should also have the advantage in blocks and steals. Notre Dame will have to make their three pointers when Harangody is double teamed to maintain and extend a lead against Kentucky and they should with 39.6% shooting from beyond the arc this season. Kentucky averages an astounding 17.2 turnovers per game. Notre Dame averages 9.7 turnovers per game. So if Kentucky can play good defense, disrupting Notre Dame, and avoid turning the ball over constantly they have a good chance to win this game. If Notre Dame can manage to shoot 40% from the field, prevent Kentucky from scoring too many dunks and layups, and force even 12 turnovers they will almost assuredly win.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
7) Even as a Mountain West fan I, like most of America, have rarely seen San Diego State play. San Diego State is favored by 3.5 at home. St. Mary’s has a pretty sizable advantage in adjusted points and rebounding margin so I expect Samhan and Simpson to do well on the boards for the Gaels. San Diego State has more empty possessions than St. Mary’s and fewer total possessions on average. St. Mary’s gets more blocks, but San Diego State grabs more steals. San Diego State’s opponents shoot a lower percentage from the field and from three point range than St. Mary’s opponents. The Aztecs shoot the three ball at 34.7% compared to 33.6 percent for St. Mary’s. When San Diego State lost by 3 to St. Mary’s on a neutral court they shot 33.3% from the free throw line, yet are a 70% shooting team on the season, ergo St. Mary’s was lucky to have won that game. I have to give St. Mary’s the advantage based on offensive efficiency in the end, but if Kyle Spain is lighting things up San Diego State should win.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
8) Phoenix is on a five game winning streak following a six game losing streak, with two of those wins being against teams with a better than .500 record and all but one game being at home. The Utah Jazz are at full strength and have been playing well since the All-Star break with an NBA best 14-3 record. All three losses came on the road to Atlanta, Miami, and Orlando. Phoenix is without Leandro Barbosa for this game and Stoudemire is out for the season. Phoenix won at home against the Jazz by 2 earlier in the season. Carlos Boozer was out with injury for that game and Phoenix still had Raja Bell, Boris Diaw, Leandro Barbosa, and Amare Stoudemire. Phoenix has added Matt Barnes and Jason Richardson since then, but I don’t see them making up for the loss of Bell, Diaw, Barbosa, and Stoudemire. The Jazz are 14-20 on the road with 13 of those wins coming against sub-.500 teams. Phoenix is a 3 point favorite. I’ll be going with the better team here and give them a shot on the road now that they’re at full-strength.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
March 24th, 2009 Picks
An ugly 2-2-0 day though not bad considering my picks went below .500 for the day. The day started out nicely with FK Tom’ Tomsk scoring a goal in the first minute of their match against CSKA Moscow. They went into lockdown mode after that and managed to keep CSKA from finding the net for the rest of the game. Needless to say CSKA returned the favor and the match ended as a 1-0 win for FK Tom’ Tomsk. I then went with Kidderminster Harriers. The game was a 0-0 draw until the last moments of the game when Kidderminster scored a goal in injury time to seal the win.
I then took Nate Robinson. 6 for 22 shooting for the night. 1 for 7 on threes, including a miss that could have tied the game and sent it into overtime. Nate Robinson was very nearly the worst Knick on offense this night. Dwight Howard had a nice game scoring 13 in the first quarter, 7 in the second, 6 in the third, and 3 in the fourth. Robinson was down 20 to 5 at the half and never seriously threatened. My final pick was St. Mary’s over Davidson. It was a close game for the first half with Davidson making just enough threes and forcing just enough turnovers to keep it close. St. Mary’s then began to gradually draw away in the second half. Patty Mills, Omar Samhan, and Diamon Simpson were terrific. Curry had a good game for Davidson as well but he did not have enough from his supporting cast to lift Davidson to victory. St. Mary’s won the game 80-68. So then, on with the picks.
1) Hereford United @ Carlisle United – Carlisle United win
2) Baylor @ Auburn – Auburn scores more three pointers
3) Washington Capitals @ Toronto Maple Leafs – 7 goals or more
4) Anaheim Ducks @ Nashville Predators – Nashville
5) Detroit Pistons @ Chicago Bulls – Chicago
6) Vancouver Canucks @ Dallas Stars – Dallas
7) Penn State @ Florida – 141 points or fewer
8) Ron Artest and Yao Ming vs. Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams – Ming and Artest pts.
Analysis
1) Hereford United is 2-2-15 (W-D-L) on the road this season. Their wins and draws have come against Colchester United, Brighton, Cheltenham Town, and Walsall. So they have defeated or drawn against teams higher in the tables than Carlisle United but half of their wins and draws have come against other relegation squads. Carlisle United are 7-4-7 at home. They lost to Tranmere Rovers at home who are 7th in the tables and have a losing record on the road, 5-4-10. They also lost to Hartlepool United who are 4-3-12 on the road. Their 9 other losses and draws at home have come against squads with more wins/draws than losses. Carlisle United are dealing with a few injuries with Livesey, Bridge-Wilkinson, Horwood, and Murphy out. Thirlwell is likely to play. All of these players missed the match against Hereford United earlier this season which Hereford won 1-0. Injury information for Hereford United is more difficult to come by so for now I’ll assume they are at full strength. The current odds have a Carlisle win favored at 54%.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Baylor makes 8.1 three pointers per game and Auburn makes 7.1 three pointers per game. Neither team is very big so one might expect them to shoot fewer threes and score inside, yet both teams tend to shoot at least nearly 20 threes even if the largest defender on the court is 6’9". Baylor shoots 36.2% on threes, while Auburn shoots 33.4%. Baylor has three deadly shooters in Tweety Carter, Lacedarius Dunn, and Curtis Jerrells. Auburn’s main threats are DeWayne Reed and Tay Waller. Both schools have at least three other players who can and do shoot threes, however. Auburn’s opponents shoot 32.9% on threes and Baylor’s opponents shoot 33.9%. Auburn’s opponents also shoot a lower percentage from the field and Auburn forces more turnovers than Baylor. I like Auburn here to defend the perimeter and frustrate Baylor’s offense. Of course this will come down to which team has the hot hands, but I think Auburn has a better chance of that with their defense.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) Nashville is a pretty big favorite at home (-140) and Pekka Rinne is a terrific goalie. Anaheim will be trying out Jonas Hiller in net against the Predators as GIguere has not done so well against them this year. Nashville is 2-0-1 against the Ducks with an overtime loss in Anaheim just 6 days ago. Nashville is coming off a shootout loss to San Jose and should be looking to return to the form that gave them an 8-0 win over Detroit, the Red Wings’ only scoreless game this season. Anaheim is 4-1-0 in their last 5 games with overtime wins at home over Nashville and Vancouver. This is probably one of the safer picks on the board tonight.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
7) This looks to be another close over/under that comes down to the last few possessions. A number of measures are pointing to 136 to 138 points being scored here. One made three and an extra free throw could put it over, however. Cornley, Penn State’s second leading scorer, is questionable for the game tonight and Talor Battle is probable to play with a minor hip injury that has not affected his scoring too much. Either way Penn State can be expected to score around 60 points, so Florida will need to have an 80 point game to put this one over. They can do it, having scored 80 or more in 19 of their 35 games. If you take this pick, good luck.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
8) Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer outscored Yao Ming and Ron Artest 46 to 44 in the one matchup this season where all four played. Over the past 10 games Ming and Artest have been averaging 38.1 points and Williams and Boozer have been averaging 31.5 points. That total is skewed for the Jazz players by Boozer returning from an injury which kept him out for over 40 games. Williams also had a couple of low scoring games in there. Okur, Collins, Millsap, or Boozer won’t be able to stop Yao from scoring, but he may have a poor shooting night on his own. The best hope for the Jazz men is for Kirilenko and Harpring to slow down Artest. Then they will need Boozer to play up to form and score 20 or more points. In the 11 games since he’s returned Boozer has scored 20 or more three times, with a high of 23 points. On the other hand, Yao Ming has only scored 20 or more four times in the past 11 games. Boozer and Williams could definitely win this but it seems a bit more likely for Artest and Ming to end up on top. Of course, I’ll be picking Williams and Boozer.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
I then took Nate Robinson. 6 for 22 shooting for the night. 1 for 7 on threes, including a miss that could have tied the game and sent it into overtime. Nate Robinson was very nearly the worst Knick on offense this night. Dwight Howard had a nice game scoring 13 in the first quarter, 7 in the second, 6 in the third, and 3 in the fourth. Robinson was down 20 to 5 at the half and never seriously threatened. My final pick was St. Mary’s over Davidson. It was a close game for the first half with Davidson making just enough threes and forcing just enough turnovers to keep it close. St. Mary’s then began to gradually draw away in the second half. Patty Mills, Omar Samhan, and Diamon Simpson were terrific. Curry had a good game for Davidson as well but he did not have enough from his supporting cast to lift Davidson to victory. St. Mary’s won the game 80-68. So then, on with the picks.
1) Hereford United @ Carlisle United – Carlisle United win
2) Baylor @ Auburn – Auburn scores more three pointers
3) Washington Capitals @ Toronto Maple Leafs – 7 goals or more
4) Anaheim Ducks @ Nashville Predators – Nashville
5) Detroit Pistons @ Chicago Bulls – Chicago
6) Vancouver Canucks @ Dallas Stars – Dallas
7) Penn State @ Florida – 141 points or fewer
8) Ron Artest and Yao Ming vs. Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams – Ming and Artest pts.
Analysis
1) Hereford United is 2-2-15 (W-D-L) on the road this season. Their wins and draws have come against Colchester United, Brighton, Cheltenham Town, and Walsall. So they have defeated or drawn against teams higher in the tables than Carlisle United but half of their wins and draws have come against other relegation squads. Carlisle United are 7-4-7 at home. They lost to Tranmere Rovers at home who are 7th in the tables and have a losing record on the road, 5-4-10. They also lost to Hartlepool United who are 4-3-12 on the road. Their 9 other losses and draws at home have come against squads with more wins/draws than losses. Carlisle United are dealing with a few injuries with Livesey, Bridge-Wilkinson, Horwood, and Murphy out. Thirlwell is likely to play. All of these players missed the match against Hereford United earlier this season which Hereford won 1-0. Injury information for Hereford United is more difficult to come by so for now I’ll assume they are at full strength. The current odds have a Carlisle win favored at 54%.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Baylor makes 8.1 three pointers per game and Auburn makes 7.1 three pointers per game. Neither team is very big so one might expect them to shoot fewer threes and score inside, yet both teams tend to shoot at least nearly 20 threes even if the largest defender on the court is 6’9". Baylor shoots 36.2% on threes, while Auburn shoots 33.4%. Baylor has three deadly shooters in Tweety Carter, Lacedarius Dunn, and Curtis Jerrells. Auburn’s main threats are DeWayne Reed and Tay Waller. Both schools have at least three other players who can and do shoot threes, however. Auburn’s opponents shoot 32.9% on threes and Baylor’s opponents shoot 33.9%. Auburn’s opponents also shoot a lower percentage from the field and Auburn forces more turnovers than Baylor. I like Auburn here to defend the perimeter and frustrate Baylor’s offense. Of course this will come down to which team has the hot hands, but I think Auburn has a better chance of that with their defense.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) Nashville is a pretty big favorite at home (-140) and Pekka Rinne is a terrific goalie. Anaheim will be trying out Jonas Hiller in net against the Predators as GIguere has not done so well against them this year. Nashville is 2-0-1 against the Ducks with an overtime loss in Anaheim just 6 days ago. Nashville is coming off a shootout loss to San Jose and should be looking to return to the form that gave them an 8-0 win over Detroit, the Red Wings’ only scoreless game this season. Anaheim is 4-1-0 in their last 5 games with overtime wins at home over Nashville and Vancouver. This is probably one of the safer picks on the board tonight.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
7) This looks to be another close over/under that comes down to the last few possessions. A number of measures are pointing to 136 to 138 points being scored here. One made three and an extra free throw could put it over, however. Cornley, Penn State’s second leading scorer, is questionable for the game tonight and Talor Battle is probable to play with a minor hip injury that has not affected his scoring too much. Either way Penn State can be expected to score around 60 points, so Florida will need to have an 80 point game to put this one over. They can do it, having scored 80 or more in 19 of their 35 games. If you take this pick, good luck.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
8) Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer outscored Yao Ming and Ron Artest 46 to 44 in the one matchup this season where all four played. Over the past 10 games Ming and Artest have been averaging 38.1 points and Williams and Boozer have been averaging 31.5 points. That total is skewed for the Jazz players by Boozer returning from an injury which kept him out for over 40 games. Williams also had a couple of low scoring games in there. Okur, Collins, Millsap, or Boozer won’t be able to stop Yao from scoring, but he may have a poor shooting night on his own. The best hope for the Jazz men is for Kirilenko and Harpring to slow down Artest. Then they will need Boozer to play up to form and score 20 or more points. In the 11 games since he’s returned Boozer has scored 20 or more three times, with a high of 23 points. On the other hand, Yao Ming has only scored 20 or more four times in the past 11 games. Boozer and Williams could definitely win this but it seems a bit more likely for Artest and Ming to end up on top. Of course, I’ll be picking Williams and Boozer.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
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