March 28th, 2009 Picks

And my slow decline continues from the 5-0-0 day with a 1-3-0 day. I took Mike Weir to start the day off. Weir started out alright until he reached hole #5. He hit out of bounds on his tee shot and then hit far into the rough in the same direction with his drop tee shot. He ended up with a double bogey on the hole and two over on the front nine. Zach Johnson also nearly hit par on the front nine except for a bogey on #8, finishing 1 over par. My next pick was Adam Scott. Things went much the same way with Scott hitting par on the first 12 holes and Cink hitting a double bogey and a birdie to go one over through 12. Adam Scott proceeded to melt down completely hitting seven over par on the last six holes with a triple bogey, a double bogey and two more bogeys. Cink, as might be expected, did better than that and finished the round six strokes ahead of Scott who failed to make the cut.

My third pick was the over in the Arizona/Louisville game. Both teams got off to a fast start and ended up with 77 points by halftime. Their pace only quickened in the second half and they reached 140 points with five minutes remaining. Louisville blew out Arizona by 39 points, winning 103-64.

My last pick of the day was Kansas. It looked good in the first half with Kansas taking a 13 point lead at one point and keeping a 7 point lead at the half. Michigan State came out strong in the second and were down 2 with 17 minutes to go. I’m amazed Kansas actually outrebounded Michigan State, held Kalin Lucas to under 20 points, and still lost. Kansas seemed to be complacent with the lead instead of staying aggressive to extend it. Cole Aldrich wore down in the second half as he tallied 6 rebounds, 5 points and 0 blocks compared to 8 rebounds, 12 points, and 4 blocks in the first half. Kansas could not execute against the Spartan defense in the final three minutes and Michigan State won a terrific game 67-62. So on to the picks, ja?

1) Tom Lehman vs. Bart Bryant – Bryant cards a lower front 9 score
2) Finland vs. Wales – Wales
3) Tiger Woods’ 3rd Round Score: 68 or lower vs. 69 or higher – 69 or higher
4) Scotland @ Netherlands – 2 goals or fewer
5) Missouri vs. UCONN – 150 points or more
6) Ottawa Senators vs. Atlanta Thrashers – Ottawa
7) Villanova vs. Pittsburgh – Pittsburgh
8) Columbus Blue Jackets @ St. Louis Blues – St. Louis

Remember, they’re in twosomes after the cut so the first golf matchup will be over quickly, and good luck!

Analysis
1) Tom Lehman won the first round front 9 by one stroke and Bart Bryant won the second round front 9 by one stroke. Tom Lehman has missed the cut in four of seven tournaments this year while Bryant has made the cut in all seven tournaments he’s played in. Bryant’s putting average is 1.778 in this tournament and Lehman’s is 1.789. Lehman has hit 52.8% greens in regulation and Bryant has hit 50.0%. Bryant has hit 2 birdies and 5 bogeys on the front 9 in the first two rounds. Lehman has hit 1 birdie and 5 bogeys. Bryant has hit 71.4% of his fairways and Lehman has hit 67.9%. I’ll go with Bryant here even though my coin selected Lehman.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

2) Wales is undefeated at home in World Cup Qualifying competition, while Finland has not won on the road. The caveat is that Wales has defeated the bottom side of their group at home while Finland has lost, once, to the upper side. Craig Bellamy injured his knee against West Ham United on March 1st but played for Manchester City as a substitute as recently as March 22nd. He may still be nursing the injury but he is fit to play against Finland as the Welsh coach named him to the squad on March 16th. Wales is favored to win in this match, with a Finnish win getting a 27.9% chance in the European sports books and a Welsh win getting a 43.3% chance.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

4) The current odds are 50.7% for over 2.5 goals and 49.3% for under 2.5. Combined The Netherlands and Scotland have scored 7 goals in six matches and allowed 3 goals. That’s an average score of 1.67 goals. The Netherlands are known for being an up-tempo offensive team but have only scored two goals at most in matches against Iceland, Norway, and Macedonia. This could easily be 2-1 in favor of The Netherlands, but Scotland is a good defensive squad having allowed 1 goal in three matches against the same three squads.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

5) Missouri and Connecticut are both high powered offenses. Missouri played against a strong defensive squad in Memphis and posted 102 points in regulation. Connecticut will prove to be a tougher challenge, but Missouri leads the nation in assists and have a 1.53 assist to turnover ratio so they should be finding easy baskets even against the Huskies. Both teams play at a fast pace and combine for 120 shots, 50 free throw attempts, and 12 three pointers scored. If both teams shoot over 40 percent from the field and hit 65 percent of their free throws it should go over. Based on their adjusted points ratings and the difference between that and actual scores in 47 tournament games this year I would give the over an 80% chance of happening.
Confidence: W7 streak or less

6) Both teams are hot, Ottawa is 8-2-0 in their last 10 and Atlanta is 7-3-0. Atlanta is 4-1-0 in their last 5 home games and Ottawa is 2-3-0 in their last 5 away games. Lehtonen was injured on Thursday night against the Rangers. Dan Hedburg, who has a 3.65 GAA and an 88.1 SV%, will be in net for the Thrashers tonight which gives Ottawa the advantage here.
UPDATE: It’s Johan Hedburg, not Dan.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

8) Both Columbus and St. Louis are doing well recently with Columbus going 7-2-1 in their last 10 and St. Louis going 6-3-1. Both teams have victories against strong competition in that stretch. St. Louis is 4-1-0 at home recently and Columbus is 3-1-1 on the road. Columbus won their last game at home against Calgary 5-0. St. Louis is on a three game winning streak including a 3-2 win at Calgary and a 4-2 win at home against Vancouver. Head to head this season St. Louis is 2-1-0. St. Louis is currently the favorite at -120.
Confidence: W2 streak or less