March 19th, 2009 Picks

1-2-0 today, started out well when FC Kärnten went up 2-1 at the half and finished the game up 4-2 after hitting a fourth goal in the 89th minute. It was solid soccer, the Austrians played some of the best defense and offense I’ve seen in any league. Then I went with Providence over Miami. I guess Weyinmi Efejuku got smacked in the face early on and had to sit most of the first half. Miami took an 11 point lead and was able to stave off any Providence runs after that behind 7 of 14 three point shooting by Jack McClinton. Then I avoided taking Artest behind reports of Rip Hamilton missing the game along with Rasheed Wallace. I took Drake instead and they were just barely unable to come back and ended up losing 69-67 while Artest outscored Prince 26 to 12. So on to the picks.

1) Ryuji Imada vs. Sean O’Hair – O’Hair cards a lower front nine score
2) Butler vs. LSU – LSU
3) Texas A&M vs. BYU – BYU
4) Maryland vs. California – California
5) New Mexico @ Notre Dame – Notre Dame
6) Villanova win margin vs. Gonzaga win margin – Gonzaga win margin
7) Montreal Canadiens @ Ottawa Senators – Montreal
8) New York Red Bulls @ Seattle FC Sounders – New York
9) Japan @ Korea – Japan
10) UCLA win margin vs. Illinois win margin – UCLA win margin
11) Anaheim Ducks vs. Phoenix Coyotes – Anaheim
12) Stephen Jackson pts. and ast. vs. Kobe Bryant pts. – Jackson pts. and ast.

I’m mostly just going by statistics for the college basketball games with a bit of performance to finish the season. Good luck everybody!

Analysis
1) Sean O’Hair appears to be the better golfer statistically and in terms of money won on the Tour this year. On nine holes, however, either player has a good chance to shoot a lower score. Here’s an article that suggests O’Hair is as good a choice as any to be leading the field after the first round. I’ll go with the player more likely to win this prop.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

3) Texas A&M has a better rebounding margin at +5.3 to +4.2 for BYU. BYU does better at taking care of the ball with a +2.5 turnover margin to -0.3 for the Aggies. The Cougars also shoot better from three, from the line, and from the field in general. ESPN analysts are giving the Texas A&M defense a lot of credit, but overall their opponents shoot fairly high percentages, 43.1% on FG’s and 36.2% on threes. BYU has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.43 on the season compared to 0.95 for the Aggies. If BYU’s shot is falling they should grab a victory from buzzer to buzzer.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

4) California has a lot of advantages offensively. They’re the number one team in the nation in three point shooting percentage. They don’t shoot too many of them, but I doubt Maryland will have an advantage here even with their solid perimeter defense. Maryland may also be better at blocking shots and stealing the ball but I think California will force their share of turnovers as well.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

6) Gonzaga is a #4 seed and Villanova is a #3 seed. Having seen Gonzaga and Villanova play I’d say Gonzaga has a stronger killer instinct and when Pargo, Bouldin, and Heytvelt are in a groove Gonzaga is an offensive juggernaut. Gonzaga has an average non-conference margin of victory of 11.5 with games against Utah, Tennessee (2x), Arizona, Washington State, Maryland, Oklahoma State, UCONN, Memphis and Penn State. Probably the toughest non-conference schedule in the nation. Villanova has an average non-conference margin of victory of 15.0 with games against Texas, Temple, and Niagara. Villanova’s most lopsided win was a 39 point victory over Fordham. For Gonzaga it is a 42 point win over Texas Southern.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

9) Korea has a 2-1 record against Japan in this year’s World Baseball Championship with Jungkeun Bong starting on the mound for Korea in both victories. Japan won 15-2 in their first game where Bong was not pitching. Bong pitched in their win over Japan on March 17th so he will not be pitching in today’s game. Korea is the defending Olympic champions but Japan is the favorite in Vegas.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

11) Jonas Hiller is undefeated against the Phoenix Coyotes this season. Anaheim is on the second night of a back to back while Phoenix is rested. Anaheim is 16-15-3 on the road this season including a win at Phoenix. Phoenix is 18-14-2 at home. Ilya Bryzgalov is in net tonight for Phoenix.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

March 18th, 2009 Picks

Man, what a bad 1-3-0 day. Institute lost 2-1 with Newry City’s top scorers each tagging one in the net, that’s fine. Then I switched my pick from 3 goals or fewer to 4 goals or more and lost that one with Arsenal barely scoring two to win 2-1 over Hull CIty. Then I had Morehead State locked in and switched it to South Carolina for absolutely no reason. The Gamecocks lost and Morehead State stomped Alabama State with a 47 to 26 rebounding edge. I finally got back on track with UNLV three pointers. They were shooting terribly in the first half and were down 3 to 5 to Kentucky even though they had shot more than twice as many. They eventually found their stroke and put in 7 in the second half to 1 for Kentucky and took the prop 10 to 6. UNLV shot 34 threes for the game! So on to today’s picks and more than a few wins.

1) SK Sturm Graz @ FC Kärnten – FC Kärnten win
2) Chicago Blackhawks @ Columbus Blue Jackets – Columbus
3) Miami @ Providence – Providence
4) Dwyane Wade pts. vs. Paul Pierce pts., reb., and ast. – Wade pts.
5) United States vs. Venezuela – Venezuela
6) Chicago @ Oklahoma City – Oklahoma City
7) Georgetown @ Baylor – Baylor
8) Tayshaun Prince pts. vs. Ron Artest pts. – Artest pts.
9) Nahsville Predators @ Anaheim Ducks – Nashville
10) Drake @ Idaho – Drake

Arrrrr, avast, and taco ye laterrrr!

Analysis
1) SK Sturm Graz defeated FC Kärnten 3-0 at Graz and 2-0 at Kärnten in August and October. The only major change to Graz since then is the replacement of Josef Schiklgruber (0.455 GAA in 11 matches) with Martin Kobras (0.667 GAA in 3 matches). FC Kärnten have lost their top goal scorer, Adi Roche Filho, to Energie Cottbus during the winter break, otherwise they are much the same team as well. Since the winter break FC Kärnten have defeated SV Salzburg, who are first in the tables, 2-0 at home. SK Sturm Graz have yet to win a match and lost at home to Kapfenberg SV who are 8th in the tables. FC Kärnten have allowed 9 goals to opponents in home matches, while Sturm Graz have allowed 22 goals in away matches. FC Kärnten have not lost at home this season when leading at the half, and Sturm Graz have not lost on the road this season when leading. Neither side has won matches in which they’ve been down at the half either. SK Sturm Graz have not ended an away match in a draw this season. I think FC Kärnten will be up 1-0 or tied 0-0 at half time and will end the game winning 2-0 or 1-0.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

3) Providence is a 2.5 to 3 point favorite here and are at home where they were 13-4 on the season. Miami has a 5-6 road record. Providence has four players averaging 10 points or more and seven players averaging at least 8 points per game. Miami has two players averaging over 10 points per game and four players at over 8 points per game. Providence doesn’t have the greatest defense so I expect Jack McClinton will have a good game for Miami, but Miami’s defense isn’t good enough to stop all the scoring options for Providence. Miami will probably have a rebounding advantage, but it won’t be anywhere close to the +19 Morehead State had over Alabama State yesterday. Should be a close game, but I like Providence to prevail in the end.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

5) Venezuela lost to USA 15-6 before and then defeated them 5-3. Both teams are in the semi-finals already so this game will primarily determine seeding. The United States are low on relief pitchers tonight and so the advantage would appear to go to Venezuela.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

8) The last time these two teams played it was in Detroit and Artest outscored Prince 24 to 6. Now they’re playing in Houston, Detroit is coming off a loss at Dallas, and Houston’s defense is as good as it’s been all year. Artest is averaging 17.7 points in his last 10 games and Prince is averaging 17.9 points in his last 10. In their recent home/away games Artest is averaging 15.8 points and Prince is averaging 16.0 points. When the stats are this close I’ll go with the home player who won easily in their previous matchup.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

10) Idaho is at home and is a 1 point favorite. Idaho is 12-3 at home this season and Drake is 4-6 on the road this season. Idaho’s losses at home came against Washington State, Utah State, and Nevada. Drake has some fine non-conference wins, defeating Iowa (Big 10), Morehead State (playing Louisville in the first round of the NCAA Tournament), and New Mexico (Mountain West). Idaho has a win at home against Cal State-Northridge who is also in the NCAA Tournament. Statistically the two teams are well matched. So really Idaho at home would seem to be the best choice here but I will go with Drake on the road anyways.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

March 17th, 2009 Picks

A pretty good day at 2-1-0. Things started off well as Mainz defeated SV Wehen 2-0. Wehen had a penalty kick early on but Dimo Wache blocked it in an exciting moment. Wehen outshot Mainz 18 to 8 but most of theirs went over the goal. Mainz scored in the 1st half as well as in the final seconds of injury time in the 2nd half. Then the New Orleans Hornets put forth a sub-par effort, shooting under 40% as a team for the game. Dikembe Mutumbo filled in well for Yao Ming who was ill with the flu. Artest scored 18 points in the second half, while Tyson Chandler was sat with foul trouble for large portions of the game. James Posey was ineffective in his 30 or so minutes and Chris Pauls 29 point, 11 assist, 6 steal effort was not enough. Then I picked Cuba over Mexico as they were extremely heavy favorites to win the game. They ended up winning the game 7-4. So on to today’s exciting lineup of picks.

1) Institute @ Newry – Institute win
2) Hull City @ Arsenal – 4 goals or more
3) Davidson @ South Carolina – South Carolina
4) Buffalo Sabres @ Ottawa Senators – Ottawa
5) Morehead State vs. Alabama State – Morehead State
6) Washington Capitals @ Florida Panthers – Washington
7) Boston win margin vs. Dallas win margin – Boston win margin
8) UAB @ Notre Dame – 150 points or more
9) UNLV @ Kentucky – UNLV scores more three pointers
10) Philadelphia 76ers @ Los Angeles Lakers – 205 points or more
11) Washington State @ Saint Mary’s College – Washington State

Good luck finding those tacos tomorrow and enjoy your green beer and Irish car bombs =9!

Analysis
2) PaddyPower and other betting sites have a 1-0 Arsenal win as the most likely result at 5/1, followed by 3-0 Arsenal at 13/2, followed by 2-1 Arsenal at 15/2, then 2-0 Arsenal at 9/1, and 3-1 Arsenal at 10/1. I’ll be going with the many 3 or under results favored over 4 goals or more results.
UPDATE: It appears Fabianski, Arsenal’s backup goalie, is starting, as well as Arshavin, Walcott, and van Persie. Hull City is starting Boaz Myhill but he has conceded more goals per game than their backup Matt Duke. So I am going with the over here.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

4) Buffalo is 1-3-1 against Ottawa this season with the one victory coming in Buffalo. Both Lalime and Miller have losing records against Ottawa. The two teams last played on March 7th at Ottawa and the Senators won 6-3. Buffalo is 2-6-2 in their last 10 away games with two shootout losses, and Ottawa is 6-3-1 in their last 10 home games.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

5) Morehead State plays in the Ohio Valley Conference and Alabama State plays in the Southwest Athletic Conference. Morehead State is a team that likes to take the ball to the hoop over shooting jump shots. I have seen teams attempt to use a zone against them before and they were able to cut through it easily. Alabama State has a +1.2 rebounding margin and Morehead State has a +8.0 rebounding margin. I expect Morehead State will be scoring high percentage shots and getting offensive rebounds. Alabama State is a good shooting team at 47.1% on the season, but with fewer second chance points I would give the advantage to Morehead State.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

6) Florida is 2-2-0 against Washington this year, losing the sole home game and going 2-1-0 in Washington. Craig Anderson was in net for the two victories and Tomas Vokoun was in for the two losses. Washington is playing the second night of a back to back and Jose Theodore looks to be the goalie again after giving up four goals to the Thrashers last night. Since Vokoun appears to be in line to start for the Panthers I’ll go with Ovechkin and his crew even on a back-to-backer.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

8) UAB is a fast paced team who average over 56 shots per game. Notre Dame slowed down in Big East play a bit but they have averaged 64 shots per game over the season. Robert Vaden went 0 for 17 the last time UAB was featured on the Streak in a game against Memphis and I doubt that will happen again. On the other side Notre Dame has Luke Harangody and some large centers in Zeller and Hillesland. UAB has only one player weighing over 210 pounds and Harangody still has 15 pounds on him. They’ll have to pick their poison with whether to put a big body on Harangody or Zeller and either way Notre Dame should be able to score inside. Coupled with McAlarney and Ayers able to hit the three shot effectively and I can easily see either team trying to outscore the other. 170 points here wouldn’t surprise me, but if either team has a bad shooting night under 150 could easily occur.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

9) UNLV shoots just over 20 three point shots per game while Kentucky shoots just over 16. Both teams shoot threes at about 34.5%. Kentucky has Jodie Meeks taking over half of their three point shots and he is the only player averaging more than 1.0 three pointer made per game, with 3.3 makes. UNLV has four players averaging over 1.0 make per game in Darger, Adams, Willis, and Wallace. UNLV averages about 7.5 three pointers made per game and Kentucky averages 5.6. Of course, you never know if Meeks will make 10 and score 50 again.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

11) I’ve seen Saint Mary’s and Washington State play and I have to give the advantage to Washington State. Saint Mary’s likes to play at a faster pace while Washington State likes to play defense and slow the game down. Washington State nearly always imposes their game on their opponents with only California, Gonzaga, and UCLA able to score 70 points or more. Most of their opponents score under 60 points. I think Washington State will force Saint Mary’s to play their game and that will favor the Cougars’ chances of winning.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

March 16th, 2009 Picks

Terrible day picking for me at 1-3-0 today. The NBA props killed me with Dirk Nowitzki scoring 3 points and grabbing 1 rebound in the second half. No wonder they are barely making the playoffs if that’s what they get out of their star player. Kobe was terrific, his shots were smooth as buttah no matter where he shot it from. Kobe wins with 28 points and 5 assists to Dirk’s 20 points and 5 rebounds. Stephen Jackson was off something fierce today, taking only four shots by the half. He picked up his second technical midway through the third and Shaq outscored him 26 to 10.

Torino was a big disappointment as well, as they took 10 shots with only two being on target and one rebounding off the post. I underestimated the impact Sergio Floccari would have on the game as he scored both goals for Atalanta. Atalanta returned to winning form and Torino fell into relegation as they lost at home 2-0. The only bright spot came when Duke played terrific, especially Scheyer, Henderson, and Singler who scored 70 of Duke’s 79 points. Duke led by more than 10 for the majority of the game while Tennessee lost to Mississippi State. And so we move on to another day and on to the picks.

1) Mainz @ SV Wehen – Mainz wins
2) James Blake vs. Fernando Gonzalez – Gonzalez
3) Washington Capitals @ Atlanta Thrashers – 5 goals or fewer
4) Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Hornets – New Orleans
5) Venezuela vs. Puerto Rico – Venezuela
6) Nashville Predators @ L.A. Kings – L.A. Kings
7) Cuba vs. Mexico – Cuba

Good luck all y’all!

Analysis
1) SV Wehen will be without defender Kristjan Glibo, and possibly without Dajan Stimic as well. Mainz will be at full strength. The last time these two clubs played Mainz was without starting midfielder Zsolt Löw and Wehen had Glibo missing. The match was at Mainz and the 05ers won 5-0. Of course I have been wrong on every soccer pick for a week now….
Confidence: W1 streak or less

3) I’ll have to check and make sure but I think Lehtonen will be in net for Atlanta and Theodore will be in net for Washington. They have yet to face one another this season, with either one yielding no more than three goals to their opponent. I have a hunch one will yield no more than 2 and the other no more than 3.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

4) New Orleans suffered an 18 point loss at Chicago on Saturday on the second night of a back-to-back. Houston also lost Saturday, by 3 points to San Antonio. Both teams will be looking to rebound, but I think home court will be kind to the Hornets, and it will be easier for them to come back from a blowout loss than a close one like Houston did.
UPDATE: Wow, looks like Yao Ming is out for tonight with the flu.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

6) Looks like Ersberg will be the goalie tonight for the L.A. Kings. He has been the goalie for both of their losses to Nashville this year. Pekka Rinne has been stopping pucks like crazy for Nashville so I think they’ll win 2-1 or so, even though they’re on the road.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

March 15th, 2009 Picks

I woke up this morning and saw Liverpool was up 2-1 at the half with two of the goals being scored on penalty kicks. That right there told me this was going to be a chippy one. Liverpool ended up being the more reserved bunch and used that to execute their attacks to near perfection as they won 4-1 at Old Trafford. I had gone with Georgia Tech the other day and lost a close one so today I went with the crowd and took LSU, and we all know how that turned out. I got back into a groove with Chism scoring 27 to 14 for Reed, and Devendorf outscoring Williams 20 to 11.

I also lucked out with switching my pick to USC as they came back and triumphed in the last seconds of regulation. My day was not to end brightly, however, as the sun went down on Pacific in overtime. Pacific was down by 18 early on but fought back to tie the game on multiple occasions. Every time they got the Northridge lead down to 1 or tied it, however, they failed to score or would turn the ball over. All through the second half and overtime this happened and Pacific never led the entire game. So on to the picks.

1) Torino @ Atalanta – Torino win or draw
2) France @ England – France
3) Tottenham Hotspur @ Aston Villa – Aston Villa win
4) Philadelphia Flyers @ New York Rangers – New York Rangers
5) Duke win margin vs. Tennessee win margin – Duke win margin
6) Phil Mickelson vs. Rest of Field – Mickelson wins
7) Boston Bruins @ Pittsburgh Penguins – Pittsburgh
8) Dirk Nowitzki pts. + reb. vs. Kobe Bryant pts. + ast. – Nowitzki pts. + reb.
9) Cuba vs. Japan – Japan
10) Detroit Red Wings @ Columbus Blue Jackets – Columbus
11) Netherlands vs. United States – 9 runs or fewer
12) Shaquille O’Neal pts. vs. Stephen Jackson pts. – Jackson pts.
13) Mexico vs. Korea – Korea

Analysis
1) Atalanta have Pinto, Vieri, and Doni out with various injuries. Cristiano Doni has been called up by the coach to be on the team for today. He may be a substitute for this game and only be brought in if Atalanta are already down and are desperate to score a goal. They are also returning Flocari for this match, their leading goal scorer. Atalanta have been on a losing streak lately, even losing to a visiting Chievo Verona 2-0. The last time they won a game they had Pinto and Doni in the forefield along with Flocari, and without those two should be less effective on the attack. Torino are missing Corini and Rosina, but they played Inter Milan to a 1-1 draw at San Siro without Corini and while Rosina played he did not score their goal. Torino are also playing to avoid relegation, while Atalanta have removed themselves from any chance of a Champions League berth yet are still far enough from relegation to not have to worry about it.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

5) I think Duke is a good defensive team, and clutch as well. Should they take a five point lead into the final two minutes they will win the game by five or more. Both Mississippi State and Tennessee are playing for a spot in the NCAA tournament as LSU will probably take the at-large bid for the SEC. The play of Mississippi State, and Jarvis Vanardo in particular, has me thinking the Bulldogs are not finished winning games.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

6) Mickelson shot his worst round of the tournament yesterday and Watney shot his best round, leaving the two tied going into today and four strokes ahead of the rest of the field. I think the pin and tee placements will give Watney more trouble than Mickelson.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

7) Pittsburgh is 18-12-3 at home and Boston is 21-10-5 on the road. Manny Fernandez is in net for Pittsburgh, and he is a capable enough goalie, but we’ve seen him drop a game to the Islanders before. Fernandez has won in a game at home against the Penguins before, but Mathieu Garon should be in goal for Pittsburgh. Garon has only played a couple of games for the Penguins and does not have very impressive statistics except against the Bruins.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

8) Kobe Bryant averages 32.9 assists and points per game this season and 34.9 in his last 10 games. Dirk Nowitzki averages 34.0 points and rebounds per game and 37.2 in his last 10. Both players have been picking up their game down the stretch, Bryant to help his team to home court for the playoffs while Bynum is out and Nowitzki just to keep his team in the playoffs. Nowitzki should collect at least 6 rebounds, but if the Lakers are not missing many shots he’ll have a hard time grabbing more than 10. If the Lakers are making shots then Bryant will end up with more assists than usual. Nowitzki has better shooting percentages in field goals, free throws, and three pointers and I think he’ll bring his A-game for this one.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

12) Jackson has been scoring more and has been playing over 40 minutes per game since Nelson promised him more. He’s been taking over 9 shots per game more than Shaq as well.
Confidence: W9 streak or less

13) Mexico have been playing terrific aside from a defeat from near-champion Cuba. Korea has been even better, however, splitting a pair of games with defending champion Japan.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

March 14th, 2009 Picks

2-2-0 for the day with alternating wins and losses. That UNC game was on pace to go well over 155, but the defenses turned it up down the stretch. A.D. Vasallo air balled a three to leave the total points at 155. I quit watching halfway through the second half, extremely lucky win there. Then Georgia Tech gave the ‘Noles a run for their money. GT played great on defense and I’d say the refs tried to give them a shot to win at the end, but they were so inefficient offensively it’s amazing they only lost by 2.

Lousiville’s defense shut down another scoring guard today with Reynolds getting only 2 points! Earl Clark did well, scoring 17. West Virginia’s defense looked really soft and out of sync today. Compared to what I saw against Notre Dame and Pittsburgh it’s hard to believe it was the same players on the court. Syracuse pulls out the overtime win by 5. So on to the picks already.

1) Liverpool @ Manchester United – Manchester United wins
2) Tiger Woods 3rd Round Score: 67 or under vs. 68 or over – 68 or over
3) New Foundland/Labradour vs. Manitoba – Manitoba
4) Utah Jazz @ Miami Heat – Utah
5) Mississippi State vs. LSU – LSU
6) North Carolina win margin vs. Michigan State win margin – Michigan State win margin
7) Phil Mickelson 3rd Round Score: 67 or under vs. 68 or over – 68 or over
8) DeWayne Reed vs. Wayne Chism – Chism pts.
9) Greivis Vasquez vs. Gerald Henderson – Henderson pts.
10) USC vs. Arizona State – USC
11) Temple win margin vs. Missouri win margin – Temple win margin
12) New Jersey Devils @ Montreal Canadiens – Montreal
13) Carlos Beltran vs. Dustin Pedroia – Beltran records more total bases
14) Eric Devendorf vs. Terrence Williams – Devendorf pts.
15) Utah State vs. Nevada – Utah State
16) Nashville Predators @ Phoenix Coyotes – Nashville
17) Pacific vs. Cal State Northridge – Pacific

Now there’s the full slate. =D Good luck to everybody! I’ll be adding further matchup analyses during the Manchester United match.

Analysis
1) Rooney, Ronaldo, Berbatov, Tevez, Vidic, van der Sar. I think the absence of Yossi Benayoun will hurt Liverpool’s chances here at Old Trafford. Manchester United have allowed 5 goals at home all season. Three were to Hull City in a game that embarrassed the Red Devils, one was to Newcastle United in the first match of the season, and one was to Blackburn Rovers with van der Sar resting. Liverpool did win 2-1 at Anfield versus Manchester United, but Benayoun played and one of those goals was an own goal by Wes Brown. Manchester United are in top form right now and I expect them to score before Liverpool and score in response to any Reds goal thereafter.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

4) First off, I’m a huge Jazz fan and would pick them to win in almost any matchup posted here. Second of all, however, with the exception of Wade vs. Ronnie Brewer the Jazz are more talented at every position on the floor. They also have a deeper and more talented bench featuring Andrei Kirilenko, Matt Harpring, Kyle Korver, and Paul Millsap. Hopefully Matt Harpring can play some effective minutes of defense on Wade, slowing him down. The Jazz have yet to play the Heat at full strength this season but they have yet to prove they can consistently win on the road as well.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

5) LSU defeated Mississippi State in Louisiana by 24 points and won in Starkville in double overtime by three points. The difference between those two games was in Mississippi the Bulldogs took 13 more free throws, LSU committed 10 more turnovers, and had only 4 more rebounds. In the first game LSU took 19 free throws to 18 for Mississippi State, they had equal numbers of turnovers, and LSU out rebonded the Bulldogs 40 to 23, 12 to 4 on the offensive glass. If LSU keep Mississippi State off the offensive glass, keep them from shooting well, take care of the ball, and keep from fouling them too often they should win easily. That sounds like a lot of things they’ll have to do right to win this game easily, so a close game seems more likely.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

6) North Carolina and Florida State played a close game in which Ty Lawson made a three pointer with one second left to prevent the game from going into overtime. The teams had similar numbers of field goal attempts, turnovers, and assists. North Carolina had 12 more assists and I wouldn’t be surprised if they enjoyed that advantage again here. Ty Lawson will probably be out and Florida State has been looking forward to this game since before they played Georgia Tech. North Carolina may even lose here without Lawson. Michigan State on the other hand is terrific away from home and have already beaten Ohio State by 11 and 9 points this season. I think Michigan State end up winning by 5 more points than North Carolina.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

7) After the cut pin and tee placements are usually adjusted to make the course more difficult. Plus, Mickelson would be at an unreal 18 under if he hits a 67.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

8) DeWayne Reed has been averaging 11.8 points in his last 10 games and Wayne Chism has been averaging 13.4. Chism is getting 1.34 points per shot over the season and Reed is getting 1.18, but over the last 10 Chism is only averaging 1.16 points per shot and Reed is getting 0.98. In their last game Chism and Reed each scored 11 points. Both players missed free throws and Reed took 6 more field goal attempts. Reed is a 38.6% field goal shooter from the field and Chism is at 47.3. I gotta go with the better field goal shooter and free throw shooter here, especially when they’re taking roughly the same number of shots lately.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

10) Both USC and Arizona State have been playing terrific in the PAC-10 tournament. USC defeated UCLA to whom they had lost twice previously this season and Arizona State took down Washington who they had also lost to twice this season. Arizona State is a slightly better shooting team from the field and from three point range. They also shoot a higher percentage on free throws. I have to go with the team least likely to blow it from the foul line and with the PAC-10 player of the year.
UPDATE: USC may as well be the home team here and Gibson is the defensive player of the year in the PAC-10 so I’ll switch my pick. Just a hunch.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

11) Temple has gone on the road and beaten Duquesne by 5. Missouri runs a bit more than Kansas or Texas so I think Baylor is in danger of being blown out. They are a cinderella team and are playing great basketball at this point, however, so I think they’ll keep the game close before losing. Temple should continue to enjoy great play from Dionte Christmas and I think they’ll end up winning by at least 10 points.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

14) Louisville completely took Scottie Reynolds and Sharaud Curry out of the game during the regular season and during the Big East tournament. Eric Devendorf is a lot bigger and more physical than either of those two guards. Devendorf scored 20 on Louisville during the regular season. In their past 10 games Devendorf is averaging 16.6 points and Terrence Williams is averaging 11.4. Devendorf shoots a higher percentage from the field, on threes, and a much better percentage on free throws (80 to 57). Williams might get hot and score early and often, but he seems to be content with being a defensive distributor. Devendorf is becoming the offensive force behind Syracuse’s success.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

17) Pacific has beaten Cal State Fullerton twice this season and as they say it’s difficult to beat a team three times, just look at Washington and UCLA yesterday. Pacific should be able to pull it off here, however. They are a better three point shooting team (39.5 to 34.9%) and they should enjoy a considerable rebounding margin. Over the season Cal State Fullerton is out rebounded by 4.3 rebounds per game while Pacific gets 2.5 more rebounds than their opponents over the season. Pacific opponents also average a lower field goal percentage than Cal State Fullerton opponents.
UPDATE: Yes, Cal State Fullerton is out rebounded constantly by their opponents but Cal State Northridge has a +3.4 rebounding margin, oh well still going with the Tigers here.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

March 13th, 2009 Picks

Ach, mein Gott!! 1-2-1 for the day with 11 winners to choose from. I’d say unbelievable but I’ve done it before. That 6 OT game with Syracuse was incredible! Easily worth UCONN not covering Flynn’s assists. The NHL games were all close with two of them going to a shootout. Utah State had a ridiculous game from behind the arc. They were shooting 80% on threes at one point and finished 13 for 21. NC State was real disappointing to me as I thought they could have played better, but Maryland was more precise, better coached, and played more as a team. Then as I was watching the Lakers game the announcers let us know that Josh Powell played for NC State. Hahah, nice bit of unwanted synchronicity.

Terrific upsets going on with Baylor taking down Kansas, Oklahoma State beating Oklahoma, and West Virginia toppling Pittsburgh (sorry Keller). I probably should have picked against myself with UCONN after seeing how flat the other three double-bye Big East teams performed earlier in the day. And SGMB defeated me, soundly. Well I’m 8 off the monthly leader now so it’s lights out for me barring a few flawless days. Undaunted and on with the picks.

1) Lawrence Westbrook vs. Raymar Morgan – Morgan pts.
2) Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina – 155 points or less
3) Tiger Woods 2nd Round Score: 67 or less vs. 68 or more – 67 or less
4) Ohio State vs. Wisconsin – Wisconsin
5) Georgia Tech vs. Florida State – Georgia Tech
6) Mississippi State vs. South Carolina – Mississippi State
7) Leixoes @ Paços de Ferreira – Paços de Ferreira win
8) Detroit @ Toronto – Detroit
9) Scottie Reynolds vs. Earl Clark – Clark pts.
10) Arizona State vs. Washington – Arizona State
11) West Virginia vs. Syracuse – West Virginia
12) Taj Gibson vs. Josh Shipp – Gibson pts.

Analysis
1) Westbrook averages 12.4 on the season, Morgan averages 11.2. Raymar Morgan had a case of walking pneumonia and it looks like he just got over it at the beginning of this month. His past six games he has scored 3, 3, 4, 14, 14, and 7 points. Westbrook had four games in February in which he scored 4 points for no injury or health reason I can see. Morgan is a high percentage shooter scoring inside, Westbrook is a much better free throw shooter and from behind the arc. This is a tough prop with both players liable to score in single digits. Westbrook is the second leading scorer for Michigan State behind Kalin Lucas and Westbrook is the leading scorer for Minnesota.
UPDATE: In their previous matchup Westbrook outscored Morgan 11 to 10, but Travis Walton, a solid defensive player, was not in for Michigan State. In the second game Walton played and Westbrook scored 6 points. Raymar Morgan probably won’t have to score much to win here.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

2) Ty Lawson will either not play for North Carolina or will play but be less than 100. Either way one would expect the Tarheel offense to be just a bit slower and a bit less efficient. The last game against Virginia Tech went over by 9 points mainly due to Virginia Tech fouling at the end in an attempt to get back into the game. If North Carolina is ahead by 10 or less than 4 in the final minute VIrginia Tech is doubtful to send them to the line quickly and constantly.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

4) Wisconsin won the lone regular season meeting against Ohio State 55-50. Ohio State shot 55.3 from the field and Wisconsin shot 36.4. Wisconsin was able to overcome that because they had 14 offensive rebounds to 3 for Ohio State and ended up shooting 13 more field goals than the Buckeyes. Ohio State had 19 turnovers to 9 for Wisconsin. I think the turnover margin will be smaller in this game but Wisconsin will probably have a similar advantage in rebounds and second-chance points. If Wisconsin shoots a better percentage, something close to 40, they should win here.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

9) Scottie Reynolds has been averaging 17.7 points in his last 10 games and Earl Clark has been averaging 16.8. Overall the stats look to favor Reynolds who is much more efficient at scoring at 1.43 points per shot compared to 1.16 for Clark. Terrence Williams will probably be looking to be more involved on offense and to score more which might mean fewer points for Clark. Reynolds scores most of his points on three pointers and free throws in many games. Louisville plays tough defense and won’t give up too many threes to Reynolds and I don’t see Reynolds getting to the line over and over again unless it’s that kind of game, in which case Clark could be expected to shoot many free throws as well. In their regular season meeting Clark outscored Reynolds 16 to 11. Reynolds was 0 for 2 from three point range.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

11) Syracuse played in a 70 minute 6-OT game against UCONN last night that ended at 1:22am EDT. West Virginia played a 1-3-1 zone against Pittsburgh and won, and now they’ll probably go back to a man-to-man defense to frustrate Syracuse’s ability to score the three ball and force the Orangemen to score in other ways. In their regular season matchup Syracuse scored almost at will by driving through the lane to score up close. West Virginia’s defense has been playing terrific lately and they will play more physically this time and test Syracuse’s ability to drive for layups. West Virginia did not shoot the ball well in the regular season game and I expect they will perform better this time around.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

12) Taj Gibson scored a meager 2 points in his most recent game against UCLA. Gibson went out at the beginning of the second half with a dislocated pinky in that game. The game was at UCLA and Shipp scored 19 points, 11 on free throws. I think USC will be better prepared for a UCLA pressure defense this time around. In their first game of the season Gibson outscored Shipp 13 to 10 even though he fouled out after 23 minutes of playing time while Shipp played 29 minutes. Shipp generally plays fewer minutes than Gibson (32.6 mins. vs. 36.4 mins. in their past 5 games.) Gibson is averaging 14.2 points in his last 10 games and Shipp is averaging 17.5.
Confidence: W1 streak or less