March 19th, 2009 Picks

1-2-0 today, started out well when FC Kärnten went up 2-1 at the half and finished the game up 4-2 after hitting a fourth goal in the 89th minute. It was solid soccer, the Austrians played some of the best defense and offense I’ve seen in any league. Then I went with Providence over Miami. I guess Weyinmi Efejuku got smacked in the face early on and had to sit most of the first half. Miami took an 11 point lead and was able to stave off any Providence runs after that behind 7 of 14 three point shooting by Jack McClinton. Then I avoided taking Artest behind reports of Rip Hamilton missing the game along with Rasheed Wallace. I took Drake instead and they were just barely unable to come back and ended up losing 69-67 while Artest outscored Prince 26 to 12. So on to the picks.

1) Ryuji Imada vs. Sean O’Hair – O’Hair cards a lower front nine score
2) Butler vs. LSU – LSU
3) Texas A&M vs. BYU – BYU
4) Maryland vs. California – California
5) New Mexico @ Notre Dame – Notre Dame
6) Villanova win margin vs. Gonzaga win margin – Gonzaga win margin
7) Montreal Canadiens @ Ottawa Senators – Montreal
8) New York Red Bulls @ Seattle FC Sounders – New York
9) Japan @ Korea – Japan
10) UCLA win margin vs. Illinois win margin – UCLA win margin
11) Anaheim Ducks vs. Phoenix Coyotes – Anaheim
12) Stephen Jackson pts. and ast. vs. Kobe Bryant pts. – Jackson pts. and ast.

I’m mostly just going by statistics for the college basketball games with a bit of performance to finish the season. Good luck everybody!

Analysis
1) Sean O’Hair appears to be the better golfer statistically and in terms of money won on the Tour this year. On nine holes, however, either player has a good chance to shoot a lower score. Here’s an article that suggests O’Hair is as good a choice as any to be leading the field after the first round. I’ll go with the player more likely to win this prop.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

3) Texas A&M has a better rebounding margin at +5.3 to +4.2 for BYU. BYU does better at taking care of the ball with a +2.5 turnover margin to -0.3 for the Aggies. The Cougars also shoot better from three, from the line, and from the field in general. ESPN analysts are giving the Texas A&M defense a lot of credit, but overall their opponents shoot fairly high percentages, 43.1% on FG’s and 36.2% on threes. BYU has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.43 on the season compared to 0.95 for the Aggies. If BYU’s shot is falling they should grab a victory from buzzer to buzzer.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

4) California has a lot of advantages offensively. They’re the number one team in the nation in three point shooting percentage. They don’t shoot too many of them, but I doubt Maryland will have an advantage here even with their solid perimeter defense. Maryland may also be better at blocking shots and stealing the ball but I think California will force their share of turnovers as well.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

6) Gonzaga is a #4 seed and Villanova is a #3 seed. Having seen Gonzaga and Villanova play I’d say Gonzaga has a stronger killer instinct and when Pargo, Bouldin, and Heytvelt are in a groove Gonzaga is an offensive juggernaut. Gonzaga has an average non-conference margin of victory of 11.5 with games against Utah, Tennessee (2x), Arizona, Washington State, Maryland, Oklahoma State, UCONN, Memphis and Penn State. Probably the toughest non-conference schedule in the nation. Villanova has an average non-conference margin of victory of 15.0 with games against Texas, Temple, and Niagara. Villanova’s most lopsided win was a 39 point victory over Fordham. For Gonzaga it is a 42 point win over Texas Southern.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

9) Korea has a 2-1 record against Japan in this year’s World Baseball Championship with Jungkeun Bong starting on the mound for Korea in both victories. Japan won 15-2 in their first game where Bong was not pitching. Bong pitched in their win over Japan on March 17th so he will not be pitching in today’s game. Korea is the defending Olympic champions but Japan is the favorite in Vegas.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

11) Jonas Hiller is undefeated against the Phoenix Coyotes this season. Anaheim is on the second night of a back to back while Phoenix is rested. Anaheim is 16-15-3 on the road this season including a win at Phoenix. Phoenix is 18-14-2 at home. Ilya Bryzgalov is in net tonight for Phoenix.
Confidence: W2 streak or less