March 13th, 2009 Picks

Ach, mein Gott!! 1-2-1 for the day with 11 winners to choose from. I’d say unbelievable but I’ve done it before. That 6 OT game with Syracuse was incredible! Easily worth UCONN not covering Flynn’s assists. The NHL games were all close with two of them going to a shootout. Utah State had a ridiculous game from behind the arc. They were shooting 80% on threes at one point and finished 13 for 21. NC State was real disappointing to me as I thought they could have played better, but Maryland was more precise, better coached, and played more as a team. Then as I was watching the Lakers game the announcers let us know that Josh Powell played for NC State. Hahah, nice bit of unwanted synchronicity.

Terrific upsets going on with Baylor taking down Kansas, Oklahoma State beating Oklahoma, and West Virginia toppling Pittsburgh (sorry Keller). I probably should have picked against myself with UCONN after seeing how flat the other three double-bye Big East teams performed earlier in the day. And SGMB defeated me, soundly. Well I’m 8 off the monthly leader now so it’s lights out for me barring a few flawless days. Undaunted and on with the picks.

1) Lawrence Westbrook vs. Raymar Morgan – Morgan pts.
2) Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina – 155 points or less
3) Tiger Woods 2nd Round Score: 67 or less vs. 68 or more – 67 or less
4) Ohio State vs. Wisconsin – Wisconsin
5) Georgia Tech vs. Florida State – Georgia Tech
6) Mississippi State vs. South Carolina – Mississippi State
7) Leixoes @ Paços de Ferreira – Paços de Ferreira win
8) Detroit @ Toronto – Detroit
9) Scottie Reynolds vs. Earl Clark – Clark pts.
10) Arizona State vs. Washington – Arizona State
11) West Virginia vs. Syracuse – West Virginia
12) Taj Gibson vs. Josh Shipp – Gibson pts.

Analysis
1) Westbrook averages 12.4 on the season, Morgan averages 11.2. Raymar Morgan had a case of walking pneumonia and it looks like he just got over it at the beginning of this month. His past six games he has scored 3, 3, 4, 14, 14, and 7 points. Westbrook had four games in February in which he scored 4 points for no injury or health reason I can see. Morgan is a high percentage shooter scoring inside, Westbrook is a much better free throw shooter and from behind the arc. This is a tough prop with both players liable to score in single digits. Westbrook is the second leading scorer for Michigan State behind Kalin Lucas and Westbrook is the leading scorer for Minnesota.
UPDATE: In their previous matchup Westbrook outscored Morgan 11 to 10, but Travis Walton, a solid defensive player, was not in for Michigan State. In the second game Walton played and Westbrook scored 6 points. Raymar Morgan probably won’t have to score much to win here.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

2) Ty Lawson will either not play for North Carolina or will play but be less than 100. Either way one would expect the Tarheel offense to be just a bit slower and a bit less efficient. The last game against Virginia Tech went over by 9 points mainly due to Virginia Tech fouling at the end in an attempt to get back into the game. If North Carolina is ahead by 10 or less than 4 in the final minute VIrginia Tech is doubtful to send them to the line quickly and constantly.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

4) Wisconsin won the lone regular season meeting against Ohio State 55-50. Ohio State shot 55.3 from the field and Wisconsin shot 36.4. Wisconsin was able to overcome that because they had 14 offensive rebounds to 3 for Ohio State and ended up shooting 13 more field goals than the Buckeyes. Ohio State had 19 turnovers to 9 for Wisconsin. I think the turnover margin will be smaller in this game but Wisconsin will probably have a similar advantage in rebounds and second-chance points. If Wisconsin shoots a better percentage, something close to 40, they should win here.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

9) Scottie Reynolds has been averaging 17.7 points in his last 10 games and Earl Clark has been averaging 16.8. Overall the stats look to favor Reynolds who is much more efficient at scoring at 1.43 points per shot compared to 1.16 for Clark. Terrence Williams will probably be looking to be more involved on offense and to score more which might mean fewer points for Clark. Reynolds scores most of his points on three pointers and free throws in many games. Louisville plays tough defense and won’t give up too many threes to Reynolds and I don’t see Reynolds getting to the line over and over again unless it’s that kind of game, in which case Clark could be expected to shoot many free throws as well. In their regular season meeting Clark outscored Reynolds 16 to 11. Reynolds was 0 for 2 from three point range.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

11) Syracuse played in a 70 minute 6-OT game against UCONN last night that ended at 1:22am EDT. West Virginia played a 1-3-1 zone against Pittsburgh and won, and now they’ll probably go back to a man-to-man defense to frustrate Syracuse’s ability to score the three ball and force the Orangemen to score in other ways. In their regular season matchup Syracuse scored almost at will by driving through the lane to score up close. West Virginia’s defense has been playing terrific lately and they will play more physically this time and test Syracuse’s ability to drive for layups. West Virginia did not shoot the ball well in the regular season game and I expect they will perform better this time around.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

12) Taj Gibson scored a meager 2 points in his most recent game against UCLA. Gibson went out at the beginning of the second half with a dislocated pinky in that game. The game was at UCLA and Shipp scored 19 points, 11 on free throws. I think USC will be better prepared for a UCLA pressure defense this time around. In their first game of the season Gibson outscored Shipp 13 to 10 even though he fouled out after 23 minutes of playing time while Shipp played 29 minutes. Shipp generally plays fewer minutes than Gibson (32.6 mins. vs. 36.4 mins. in their past 5 games.) Gibson is averaging 14.2 points in his last 10 games and Shipp is averaging 17.5.
Confidence: W1 streak or less