March 14th, 2009 Picks

2-2-0 for the day with alternating wins and losses. That UNC game was on pace to go well over 155, but the defenses turned it up down the stretch. A.D. Vasallo air balled a three to leave the total points at 155. I quit watching halfway through the second half, extremely lucky win there. Then Georgia Tech gave the ‘Noles a run for their money. GT played great on defense and I’d say the refs tried to give them a shot to win at the end, but they were so inefficient offensively it’s amazing they only lost by 2.

Lousiville’s defense shut down another scoring guard today with Reynolds getting only 2 points! Earl Clark did well, scoring 17. West Virginia’s defense looked really soft and out of sync today. Compared to what I saw against Notre Dame and Pittsburgh it’s hard to believe it was the same players on the court. Syracuse pulls out the overtime win by 5. So on to the picks already.

1) Liverpool @ Manchester United – Manchester United wins
2) Tiger Woods 3rd Round Score: 67 or under vs. 68 or over – 68 or over
3) New Foundland/Labradour vs. Manitoba – Manitoba
4) Utah Jazz @ Miami Heat – Utah
5) Mississippi State vs. LSU – LSU
6) North Carolina win margin vs. Michigan State win margin – Michigan State win margin
7) Phil Mickelson 3rd Round Score: 67 or under vs. 68 or over – 68 or over
8) DeWayne Reed vs. Wayne Chism – Chism pts.
9) Greivis Vasquez vs. Gerald Henderson – Henderson pts.
10) USC vs. Arizona State – USC
11) Temple win margin vs. Missouri win margin – Temple win margin
12) New Jersey Devils @ Montreal Canadiens – Montreal
13) Carlos Beltran vs. Dustin Pedroia – Beltran records more total bases
14) Eric Devendorf vs. Terrence Williams – Devendorf pts.
15) Utah State vs. Nevada – Utah State
16) Nashville Predators @ Phoenix Coyotes – Nashville
17) Pacific vs. Cal State Northridge – Pacific

Now there’s the full slate. =D Good luck to everybody! I’ll be adding further matchup analyses during the Manchester United match.

Analysis
1) Rooney, Ronaldo, Berbatov, Tevez, Vidic, van der Sar. I think the absence of Yossi Benayoun will hurt Liverpool’s chances here at Old Trafford. Manchester United have allowed 5 goals at home all season. Three were to Hull City in a game that embarrassed the Red Devils, one was to Newcastle United in the first match of the season, and one was to Blackburn Rovers with van der Sar resting. Liverpool did win 2-1 at Anfield versus Manchester United, but Benayoun played and one of those goals was an own goal by Wes Brown. Manchester United are in top form right now and I expect them to score before Liverpool and score in response to any Reds goal thereafter.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

4) First off, I’m a huge Jazz fan and would pick them to win in almost any matchup posted here. Second of all, however, with the exception of Wade vs. Ronnie Brewer the Jazz are more talented at every position on the floor. They also have a deeper and more talented bench featuring Andrei Kirilenko, Matt Harpring, Kyle Korver, and Paul Millsap. Hopefully Matt Harpring can play some effective minutes of defense on Wade, slowing him down. The Jazz have yet to play the Heat at full strength this season but they have yet to prove they can consistently win on the road as well.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

5) LSU defeated Mississippi State in Louisiana by 24 points and won in Starkville in double overtime by three points. The difference between those two games was in Mississippi the Bulldogs took 13 more free throws, LSU committed 10 more turnovers, and had only 4 more rebounds. In the first game LSU took 19 free throws to 18 for Mississippi State, they had equal numbers of turnovers, and LSU out rebonded the Bulldogs 40 to 23, 12 to 4 on the offensive glass. If LSU keep Mississippi State off the offensive glass, keep them from shooting well, take care of the ball, and keep from fouling them too often they should win easily. That sounds like a lot of things they’ll have to do right to win this game easily, so a close game seems more likely.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

6) North Carolina and Florida State played a close game in which Ty Lawson made a three pointer with one second left to prevent the game from going into overtime. The teams had similar numbers of field goal attempts, turnovers, and assists. North Carolina had 12 more assists and I wouldn’t be surprised if they enjoyed that advantage again here. Ty Lawson will probably be out and Florida State has been looking forward to this game since before they played Georgia Tech. North Carolina may even lose here without Lawson. Michigan State on the other hand is terrific away from home and have already beaten Ohio State by 11 and 9 points this season. I think Michigan State end up winning by 5 more points than North Carolina.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

7) After the cut pin and tee placements are usually adjusted to make the course more difficult. Plus, Mickelson would be at an unreal 18 under if he hits a 67.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

8) DeWayne Reed has been averaging 11.8 points in his last 10 games and Wayne Chism has been averaging 13.4. Chism is getting 1.34 points per shot over the season and Reed is getting 1.18, but over the last 10 Chism is only averaging 1.16 points per shot and Reed is getting 0.98. In their last game Chism and Reed each scored 11 points. Both players missed free throws and Reed took 6 more field goal attempts. Reed is a 38.6% field goal shooter from the field and Chism is at 47.3. I gotta go with the better field goal shooter and free throw shooter here, especially when they’re taking roughly the same number of shots lately.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

10) Both USC and Arizona State have been playing terrific in the PAC-10 tournament. USC defeated UCLA to whom they had lost twice previously this season and Arizona State took down Washington who they had also lost to twice this season. Arizona State is a slightly better shooting team from the field and from three point range. They also shoot a higher percentage on free throws. I have to go with the team least likely to blow it from the foul line and with the PAC-10 player of the year.
UPDATE: USC may as well be the home team here and Gibson is the defensive player of the year in the PAC-10 so I’ll switch my pick. Just a hunch.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

11) Temple has gone on the road and beaten Duquesne by 5. Missouri runs a bit more than Kansas or Texas so I think Baylor is in danger of being blown out. They are a cinderella team and are playing great basketball at this point, however, so I think they’ll keep the game close before losing. Temple should continue to enjoy great play from Dionte Christmas and I think they’ll end up winning by at least 10 points.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

14) Louisville completely took Scottie Reynolds and Sharaud Curry out of the game during the regular season and during the Big East tournament. Eric Devendorf is a lot bigger and more physical than either of those two guards. Devendorf scored 20 on Louisville during the regular season. In their past 10 games Devendorf is averaging 16.6 points and Terrence Williams is averaging 11.4. Devendorf shoots a higher percentage from the field, on threes, and a much better percentage on free throws (80 to 57). Williams might get hot and score early and often, but he seems to be content with being a defensive distributor. Devendorf is becoming the offensive force behind Syracuse’s success.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

17) Pacific has beaten Cal State Fullerton twice this season and as they say it’s difficult to beat a team three times, just look at Washington and UCLA yesterday. Pacific should be able to pull it off here, however. They are a better three point shooting team (39.5 to 34.9%) and they should enjoy a considerable rebounding margin. Over the season Cal State Fullerton is out rebounded by 4.3 rebounds per game while Pacific gets 2.5 more rebounds than their opponents over the season. Pacific opponents also average a lower field goal percentage than Cal State Fullerton opponents.
UPDATE: Yes, Cal State Fullerton is out rebounded constantly by their opponents but Cal State Northridge has a +3.4 rebounding margin, oh well still going with the Tigers here.
Confidence: W1 streak or less