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Terrible day picking for me at 1-3-0 today. The NBA props killed me with Dirk Nowitzki scoring 3 points and grabbing 1 rebound in the second half. No wonder they are barely making the playoffs if that’s what they get out of their star player. Kobe was terrific, his shots were smooth as buttah no matter where he shot it from. Kobe wins with 28 points and 5 assists to Dirk’s 20 points and 5 rebounds. Stephen Jackson was off something fierce today, taking only four shots by the half. He picked up his second technical midway through the third and Shaq outscored him 26 to 10.
Torino was a big disappointment as well, as they took 10 shots with only two being on target and one rebounding off the post. I underestimated the impact Sergio Floccari would have on the game as he scored both goals for Atalanta. Atalanta returned to winning form and Torino fell into relegation as they lost at home 2-0. The only bright spot came when Duke played terrific, especially Scheyer, Henderson, and Singler who scored 70 of Duke’s 79 points. Duke led by more than 10 for the majority of the game while Tennessee lost to Mississippi State. And so we move on to another day and on to the picks.
1) Mainz @ SV Wehen – Mainz wins
2) James Blake vs. Fernando Gonzalez – Gonzalez
3) Washington Capitals @ Atlanta Thrashers – 5 goals or fewer
4) Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Hornets – New Orleans
5) Venezuela vs. Puerto Rico – Venezuela
6) Nashville Predators @ L.A. Kings – L.A. Kings
7) Cuba vs. Mexico – Cuba
Good luck all y’all!
Analysis
1) SV Wehen will be without defender Kristjan Glibo, and possibly without Dajan Stimic as well. Mainz will be at full strength. The last time these two clubs played Mainz was without starting midfielder Zsolt Löw and Wehen had Glibo missing. The match was at Mainz and the 05ers won 5-0. Of course I have been wrong on every soccer pick for a week now….
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) I’ll have to check and make sure but I think Lehtonen will be in net for Atlanta and Theodore will be in net for Washington. They have yet to face one another this season, with either one yielding no more than three goals to their opponent. I have a hunch one will yield no more than 2 and the other no more than 3.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
4) New Orleans suffered an 18 point loss at Chicago on Saturday on the second night of a back-to-back. Houston also lost Saturday, by 3 points to San Antonio. Both teams will be looking to rebound, but I think home court will be kind to the Hornets, and it will be easier for them to come back from a blowout loss than a close one like Houston did.
UPDATE: Wow, looks like Yao Ming is out for tonight with the flu.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
6) Looks like Ersberg will be the goalie tonight for the L.A. Kings. He has been the goalie for both of their losses to Nashville this year. Pekka Rinne has been stopping pucks like crazy for Nashville so I think they’ll win 2-1 or so, even though they’re on the road.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
And So It Goes....
Monday, March 16, 2009
Sunday, March 15, 2009
March 15th, 2009 Picks
I woke up this morning and saw Liverpool was up 2-1 at the half with two of the goals being scored on penalty kicks. That right there told me this was going to be a chippy one. Liverpool ended up being the more reserved bunch and used that to execute their attacks to near perfection as they won 4-1 at Old Trafford. I had gone with Georgia Tech the other day and lost a close one so today I went with the crowd and took LSU, and we all know how that turned out. I got back into a groove with Chism scoring 27 to 14 for Reed, and Devendorf outscoring Williams 20 to 11.
I also lucked out with switching my pick to USC as they came back and triumphed in the last seconds of regulation. My day was not to end brightly, however, as the sun went down on Pacific in overtime. Pacific was down by 18 early on but fought back to tie the game on multiple occasions. Every time they got the Northridge lead down to 1 or tied it, however, they failed to score or would turn the ball over. All through the second half and overtime this happened and Pacific never led the entire game. So on to the picks.
1) Torino @ Atalanta – Torino win or draw
2) France @ England – France
3) Tottenham Hotspur @ Aston Villa – Aston Villa win
4) Philadelphia Flyers @ New York Rangers – New York Rangers
5) Duke win margin vs. Tennessee win margin – Duke win margin
6) Phil Mickelson vs. Rest of Field – Mickelson wins
7) Boston Bruins @ Pittsburgh Penguins – Pittsburgh
8) Dirk Nowitzki pts. + reb. vs. Kobe Bryant pts. + ast. – Nowitzki pts. + reb.
9) Cuba vs. Japan – Japan
10) Detroit Red Wings @ Columbus Blue Jackets – Columbus
11) Netherlands vs. United States – 9 runs or fewer
12) Shaquille O’Neal pts. vs. Stephen Jackson pts. – Jackson pts.
13) Mexico vs. Korea – Korea
Analysis
1) Atalanta have Pinto, Vieri, and Doni out with various injuries. Cristiano Doni has been called up by the coach to be on the team for today. He may be a substitute for this game and only be brought in if Atalanta are already down and are desperate to score a goal. They are also returning Flocari for this match, their leading goal scorer. Atalanta have been on a losing streak lately, even losing to a visiting Chievo Verona 2-0. The last time they won a game they had Pinto and Doni in the forefield along with Flocari, and without those two should be less effective on the attack. Torino are missing Corini and Rosina, but they played Inter Milan to a 1-1 draw at San Siro without Corini and while Rosina played he did not score their goal. Torino are also playing to avoid relegation, while Atalanta have removed themselves from any chance of a Champions League berth yet are still far enough from relegation to not have to worry about it.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
5) I think Duke is a good defensive team, and clutch as well. Should they take a five point lead into the final two minutes they will win the game by five or more. Both Mississippi State and Tennessee are playing for a spot in the NCAA tournament as LSU will probably take the at-large bid for the SEC. The play of Mississippi State, and Jarvis Vanardo in particular, has me thinking the Bulldogs are not finished winning games.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
6) Mickelson shot his worst round of the tournament yesterday and Watney shot his best round, leaving the two tied going into today and four strokes ahead of the rest of the field. I think the pin and tee placements will give Watney more trouble than Mickelson.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
7) Pittsburgh is 18-12-3 at home and Boston is 21-10-5 on the road. Manny Fernandez is in net for Pittsburgh, and he is a capable enough goalie, but we’ve seen him drop a game to the Islanders before. Fernandez has won in a game at home against the Penguins before, but Mathieu Garon should be in goal for Pittsburgh. Garon has only played a couple of games for the Penguins and does not have very impressive statistics except against the Bruins.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
8) Kobe Bryant averages 32.9 assists and points per game this season and 34.9 in his last 10 games. Dirk Nowitzki averages 34.0 points and rebounds per game and 37.2 in his last 10. Both players have been picking up their game down the stretch, Bryant to help his team to home court for the playoffs while Bynum is out and Nowitzki just to keep his team in the playoffs. Nowitzki should collect at least 6 rebounds, but if the Lakers are not missing many shots he’ll have a hard time grabbing more than 10. If the Lakers are making shots then Bryant will end up with more assists than usual. Nowitzki has better shooting percentages in field goals, free throws, and three pointers and I think he’ll bring his A-game for this one.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
12) Jackson has been scoring more and has been playing over 40 minutes per game since Nelson promised him more. He’s been taking over 9 shots per game more than Shaq as well.
Confidence: W9 streak or less
13) Mexico have been playing terrific aside from a defeat from near-champion Cuba. Korea has been even better, however, splitting a pair of games with defending champion Japan.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
I also lucked out with switching my pick to USC as they came back and triumphed in the last seconds of regulation. My day was not to end brightly, however, as the sun went down on Pacific in overtime. Pacific was down by 18 early on but fought back to tie the game on multiple occasions. Every time they got the Northridge lead down to 1 or tied it, however, they failed to score or would turn the ball over. All through the second half and overtime this happened and Pacific never led the entire game. So on to the picks.
1) Torino @ Atalanta – Torino win or draw
2) France @ England – France
3) Tottenham Hotspur @ Aston Villa – Aston Villa win
4) Philadelphia Flyers @ New York Rangers – New York Rangers
5) Duke win margin vs. Tennessee win margin – Duke win margin
6) Phil Mickelson vs. Rest of Field – Mickelson wins
7) Boston Bruins @ Pittsburgh Penguins – Pittsburgh
8) Dirk Nowitzki pts. + reb. vs. Kobe Bryant pts. + ast. – Nowitzki pts. + reb.
9) Cuba vs. Japan – Japan
10) Detroit Red Wings @ Columbus Blue Jackets – Columbus
11) Netherlands vs. United States – 9 runs or fewer
12) Shaquille O’Neal pts. vs. Stephen Jackson pts. – Jackson pts.
13) Mexico vs. Korea – Korea
Analysis
1) Atalanta have Pinto, Vieri, and Doni out with various injuries. Cristiano Doni has been called up by the coach to be on the team for today. He may be a substitute for this game and only be brought in if Atalanta are already down and are desperate to score a goal. They are also returning Flocari for this match, their leading goal scorer. Atalanta have been on a losing streak lately, even losing to a visiting Chievo Verona 2-0. The last time they won a game they had Pinto and Doni in the forefield along with Flocari, and without those two should be less effective on the attack. Torino are missing Corini and Rosina, but they played Inter Milan to a 1-1 draw at San Siro without Corini and while Rosina played he did not score their goal. Torino are also playing to avoid relegation, while Atalanta have removed themselves from any chance of a Champions League berth yet are still far enough from relegation to not have to worry about it.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
5) I think Duke is a good defensive team, and clutch as well. Should they take a five point lead into the final two minutes they will win the game by five or more. Both Mississippi State and Tennessee are playing for a spot in the NCAA tournament as LSU will probably take the at-large bid for the SEC. The play of Mississippi State, and Jarvis Vanardo in particular, has me thinking the Bulldogs are not finished winning games.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
6) Mickelson shot his worst round of the tournament yesterday and Watney shot his best round, leaving the two tied going into today and four strokes ahead of the rest of the field. I think the pin and tee placements will give Watney more trouble than Mickelson.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
7) Pittsburgh is 18-12-3 at home and Boston is 21-10-5 on the road. Manny Fernandez is in net for Pittsburgh, and he is a capable enough goalie, but we’ve seen him drop a game to the Islanders before. Fernandez has won in a game at home against the Penguins before, but Mathieu Garon should be in goal for Pittsburgh. Garon has only played a couple of games for the Penguins and does not have very impressive statistics except against the Bruins.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
8) Kobe Bryant averages 32.9 assists and points per game this season and 34.9 in his last 10 games. Dirk Nowitzki averages 34.0 points and rebounds per game and 37.2 in his last 10. Both players have been picking up their game down the stretch, Bryant to help his team to home court for the playoffs while Bynum is out and Nowitzki just to keep his team in the playoffs. Nowitzki should collect at least 6 rebounds, but if the Lakers are not missing many shots he’ll have a hard time grabbing more than 10. If the Lakers are making shots then Bryant will end up with more assists than usual. Nowitzki has better shooting percentages in field goals, free throws, and three pointers and I think he’ll bring his A-game for this one.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
12) Jackson has been scoring more and has been playing over 40 minutes per game since Nelson promised him more. He’s been taking over 9 shots per game more than Shaq as well.
Confidence: W9 streak or less
13) Mexico have been playing terrific aside from a defeat from near-champion Cuba. Korea has been even better, however, splitting a pair of games with defending champion Japan.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
Saturday, March 14, 2009
March 14th, 2009 Picks
2-2-0 for the day with alternating wins and losses. That UNC game was on pace to go well over 155, but the defenses turned it up down the stretch. A.D. Vasallo air balled a three to leave the total points at 155. I quit watching halfway through the second half, extremely lucky win there. Then Georgia Tech gave the ‘Noles a run for their money. GT played great on defense and I’d say the refs tried to give them a shot to win at the end, but they were so inefficient offensively it’s amazing they only lost by 2.
Lousiville’s defense shut down another scoring guard today with Reynolds getting only 2 points! Earl Clark did well, scoring 17. West Virginia’s defense looked really soft and out of sync today. Compared to what I saw against Notre Dame and Pittsburgh it’s hard to believe it was the same players on the court. Syracuse pulls out the overtime win by 5. So on to the picks already.
1) Liverpool @ Manchester United – Manchester United wins
2) Tiger Woods 3rd Round Score: 67 or under vs. 68 or over – 68 or over
3) New Foundland/Labradour vs. Manitoba – Manitoba
4) Utah Jazz @ Miami Heat – Utah
5) Mississippi State vs. LSU – LSU
6) North Carolina win margin vs. Michigan State win margin – Michigan State win margin
7) Phil Mickelson 3rd Round Score: 67 or under vs. 68 or over – 68 or over
8) DeWayne Reed vs. Wayne Chism – Chism pts.
9) Greivis Vasquez vs. Gerald Henderson – Henderson pts.
10) USC vs. Arizona State – USC
11) Temple win margin vs. Missouri win margin – Temple win margin
12) New Jersey Devils @ Montreal Canadiens – Montreal
13) Carlos Beltran vs. Dustin Pedroia – Beltran records more total bases
14) Eric Devendorf vs. Terrence Williams – Devendorf pts.
15) Utah State vs. Nevada – Utah State
16) Nashville Predators @ Phoenix Coyotes – Nashville
17) Pacific vs. Cal State Northridge – Pacific
Now there’s the full slate. =D Good luck to everybody! I’ll be adding further matchup analyses during the Manchester United match.
Analysis
1) Rooney, Ronaldo, Berbatov, Tevez, Vidic, van der Sar. I think the absence of Yossi Benayoun will hurt Liverpool’s chances here at Old Trafford. Manchester United have allowed 5 goals at home all season. Three were to Hull City in a game that embarrassed the Red Devils, one was to Newcastle United in the first match of the season, and one was to Blackburn Rovers with van der Sar resting. Liverpool did win 2-1 at Anfield versus Manchester United, but Benayoun played and one of those goals was an own goal by Wes Brown. Manchester United are in top form right now and I expect them to score before Liverpool and score in response to any Reds goal thereafter.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
4) First off, I’m a huge Jazz fan and would pick them to win in almost any matchup posted here. Second of all, however, with the exception of Wade vs. Ronnie Brewer the Jazz are more talented at every position on the floor. They also have a deeper and more talented bench featuring Andrei Kirilenko, Matt Harpring, Kyle Korver, and Paul Millsap. Hopefully Matt Harpring can play some effective minutes of defense on Wade, slowing him down. The Jazz have yet to play the Heat at full strength this season but they have yet to prove they can consistently win on the road as well.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
5) LSU defeated Mississippi State in Louisiana by 24 points and won in Starkville in double overtime by three points. The difference between those two games was in Mississippi the Bulldogs took 13 more free throws, LSU committed 10 more turnovers, and had only 4 more rebounds. In the first game LSU took 19 free throws to 18 for Mississippi State, they had equal numbers of turnovers, and LSU out rebonded the Bulldogs 40 to 23, 12 to 4 on the offensive glass. If LSU keep Mississippi State off the offensive glass, keep them from shooting well, take care of the ball, and keep from fouling them too often they should win easily. That sounds like a lot of things they’ll have to do right to win this game easily, so a close game seems more likely.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
6) North Carolina and Florida State played a close game in which Ty Lawson made a three pointer with one second left to prevent the game from going into overtime. The teams had similar numbers of field goal attempts, turnovers, and assists. North Carolina had 12 more assists and I wouldn’t be surprised if they enjoyed that advantage again here. Ty Lawson will probably be out and Florida State has been looking forward to this game since before they played Georgia Tech. North Carolina may even lose here without Lawson. Michigan State on the other hand is terrific away from home and have already beaten Ohio State by 11 and 9 points this season. I think Michigan State end up winning by 5 more points than North Carolina.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
7) After the cut pin and tee placements are usually adjusted to make the course more difficult. Plus, Mickelson would be at an unreal 18 under if he hits a 67.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
8) DeWayne Reed has been averaging 11.8 points in his last 10 games and Wayne Chism has been averaging 13.4. Chism is getting 1.34 points per shot over the season and Reed is getting 1.18, but over the last 10 Chism is only averaging 1.16 points per shot and Reed is getting 0.98. In their last game Chism and Reed each scored 11 points. Both players missed free throws and Reed took 6 more field goal attempts. Reed is a 38.6% field goal shooter from the field and Chism is at 47.3. I gotta go with the better field goal shooter and free throw shooter here, especially when they’re taking roughly the same number of shots lately.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
10) Both USC and Arizona State have been playing terrific in the PAC-10 tournament. USC defeated UCLA to whom they had lost twice previously this season and Arizona State took down Washington who they had also lost to twice this season. Arizona State is a slightly better shooting team from the field and from three point range. They also shoot a higher percentage on free throws. I have to go with the team least likely to blow it from the foul line and with the PAC-10 player of the year.
UPDATE: USC may as well be the home team here and Gibson is the defensive player of the year in the PAC-10 so I’ll switch my pick. Just a hunch.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
11) Temple has gone on the road and beaten Duquesne by 5. Missouri runs a bit more than Kansas or Texas so I think Baylor is in danger of being blown out. They are a cinderella team and are playing great basketball at this point, however, so I think they’ll keep the game close before losing. Temple should continue to enjoy great play from Dionte Christmas and I think they’ll end up winning by at least 10 points.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
14) Louisville completely took Scottie Reynolds and Sharaud Curry out of the game during the regular season and during the Big East tournament. Eric Devendorf is a lot bigger and more physical than either of those two guards. Devendorf scored 20 on Louisville during the regular season. In their past 10 games Devendorf is averaging 16.6 points and Terrence Williams is averaging 11.4. Devendorf shoots a higher percentage from the field, on threes, and a much better percentage on free throws (80 to 57). Williams might get hot and score early and often, but he seems to be content with being a defensive distributor. Devendorf is becoming the offensive force behind Syracuse’s success.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
17) Pacific has beaten Cal State Fullerton twice this season and as they say it’s difficult to beat a team three times, just look at Washington and UCLA yesterday. Pacific should be able to pull it off here, however. They are a better three point shooting team (39.5 to 34.9%) and they should enjoy a considerable rebounding margin. Over the season Cal State Fullerton is out rebounded by 4.3 rebounds per game while Pacific gets 2.5 more rebounds than their opponents over the season. Pacific opponents also average a lower field goal percentage than Cal State Fullerton opponents.
UPDATE: Yes, Cal State Fullerton is out rebounded constantly by their opponents but Cal State Northridge has a +3.4 rebounding margin, oh well still going with the Tigers here.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
Lousiville’s defense shut down another scoring guard today with Reynolds getting only 2 points! Earl Clark did well, scoring 17. West Virginia’s defense looked really soft and out of sync today. Compared to what I saw against Notre Dame and Pittsburgh it’s hard to believe it was the same players on the court. Syracuse pulls out the overtime win by 5. So on to the picks already.
1) Liverpool @ Manchester United – Manchester United wins
2) Tiger Woods 3rd Round Score: 67 or under vs. 68 or over – 68 or over
3) New Foundland/Labradour vs. Manitoba – Manitoba
4) Utah Jazz @ Miami Heat – Utah
5) Mississippi State vs. LSU – LSU
6) North Carolina win margin vs. Michigan State win margin – Michigan State win margin
7) Phil Mickelson 3rd Round Score: 67 or under vs. 68 or over – 68 or over
8) DeWayne Reed vs. Wayne Chism – Chism pts.
9) Greivis Vasquez vs. Gerald Henderson – Henderson pts.
10) USC vs. Arizona State – USC
11) Temple win margin vs. Missouri win margin – Temple win margin
12) New Jersey Devils @ Montreal Canadiens – Montreal
13) Carlos Beltran vs. Dustin Pedroia – Beltran records more total bases
14) Eric Devendorf vs. Terrence Williams – Devendorf pts.
15) Utah State vs. Nevada – Utah State
16) Nashville Predators @ Phoenix Coyotes – Nashville
17) Pacific vs. Cal State Northridge – Pacific
Now there’s the full slate. =D Good luck to everybody! I’ll be adding further matchup analyses during the Manchester United match.
Analysis
1) Rooney, Ronaldo, Berbatov, Tevez, Vidic, van der Sar. I think the absence of Yossi Benayoun will hurt Liverpool’s chances here at Old Trafford. Manchester United have allowed 5 goals at home all season. Three were to Hull City in a game that embarrassed the Red Devils, one was to Newcastle United in the first match of the season, and one was to Blackburn Rovers with van der Sar resting. Liverpool did win 2-1 at Anfield versus Manchester United, but Benayoun played and one of those goals was an own goal by Wes Brown. Manchester United are in top form right now and I expect them to score before Liverpool and score in response to any Reds goal thereafter.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
4) First off, I’m a huge Jazz fan and would pick them to win in almost any matchup posted here. Second of all, however, with the exception of Wade vs. Ronnie Brewer the Jazz are more talented at every position on the floor. They also have a deeper and more talented bench featuring Andrei Kirilenko, Matt Harpring, Kyle Korver, and Paul Millsap. Hopefully Matt Harpring can play some effective minutes of defense on Wade, slowing him down. The Jazz have yet to play the Heat at full strength this season but they have yet to prove they can consistently win on the road as well.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
5) LSU defeated Mississippi State in Louisiana by 24 points and won in Starkville in double overtime by three points. The difference between those two games was in Mississippi the Bulldogs took 13 more free throws, LSU committed 10 more turnovers, and had only 4 more rebounds. In the first game LSU took 19 free throws to 18 for Mississippi State, they had equal numbers of turnovers, and LSU out rebonded the Bulldogs 40 to 23, 12 to 4 on the offensive glass. If LSU keep Mississippi State off the offensive glass, keep them from shooting well, take care of the ball, and keep from fouling them too often they should win easily. That sounds like a lot of things they’ll have to do right to win this game easily, so a close game seems more likely.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
6) North Carolina and Florida State played a close game in which Ty Lawson made a three pointer with one second left to prevent the game from going into overtime. The teams had similar numbers of field goal attempts, turnovers, and assists. North Carolina had 12 more assists and I wouldn’t be surprised if they enjoyed that advantage again here. Ty Lawson will probably be out and Florida State has been looking forward to this game since before they played Georgia Tech. North Carolina may even lose here without Lawson. Michigan State on the other hand is terrific away from home and have already beaten Ohio State by 11 and 9 points this season. I think Michigan State end up winning by 5 more points than North Carolina.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
7) After the cut pin and tee placements are usually adjusted to make the course more difficult. Plus, Mickelson would be at an unreal 18 under if he hits a 67.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
8) DeWayne Reed has been averaging 11.8 points in his last 10 games and Wayne Chism has been averaging 13.4. Chism is getting 1.34 points per shot over the season and Reed is getting 1.18, but over the last 10 Chism is only averaging 1.16 points per shot and Reed is getting 0.98. In their last game Chism and Reed each scored 11 points. Both players missed free throws and Reed took 6 more field goal attempts. Reed is a 38.6% field goal shooter from the field and Chism is at 47.3. I gotta go with the better field goal shooter and free throw shooter here, especially when they’re taking roughly the same number of shots lately.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
10) Both USC and Arizona State have been playing terrific in the PAC-10 tournament. USC defeated UCLA to whom they had lost twice previously this season and Arizona State took down Washington who they had also lost to twice this season. Arizona State is a slightly better shooting team from the field and from three point range. They also shoot a higher percentage on free throws. I have to go with the team least likely to blow it from the foul line and with the PAC-10 player of the year.
UPDATE: USC may as well be the home team here and Gibson is the defensive player of the year in the PAC-10 so I’ll switch my pick. Just a hunch.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
11) Temple has gone on the road and beaten Duquesne by 5. Missouri runs a bit more than Kansas or Texas so I think Baylor is in danger of being blown out. They are a cinderella team and are playing great basketball at this point, however, so I think they’ll keep the game close before losing. Temple should continue to enjoy great play from Dionte Christmas and I think they’ll end up winning by at least 10 points.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
14) Louisville completely took Scottie Reynolds and Sharaud Curry out of the game during the regular season and during the Big East tournament. Eric Devendorf is a lot bigger and more physical than either of those two guards. Devendorf scored 20 on Louisville during the regular season. In their past 10 games Devendorf is averaging 16.6 points and Terrence Williams is averaging 11.4. Devendorf shoots a higher percentage from the field, on threes, and a much better percentage on free throws (80 to 57). Williams might get hot and score early and often, but he seems to be content with being a defensive distributor. Devendorf is becoming the offensive force behind Syracuse’s success.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
17) Pacific has beaten Cal State Fullerton twice this season and as they say it’s difficult to beat a team three times, just look at Washington and UCLA yesterday. Pacific should be able to pull it off here, however. They are a better three point shooting team (39.5 to 34.9%) and they should enjoy a considerable rebounding margin. Over the season Cal State Fullerton is out rebounded by 4.3 rebounds per game while Pacific gets 2.5 more rebounds than their opponents over the season. Pacific opponents also average a lower field goal percentage than Cal State Fullerton opponents.
UPDATE: Yes, Cal State Fullerton is out rebounded constantly by their opponents but Cal State Northridge has a +3.4 rebounding margin, oh well still going with the Tigers here.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
Friday, March 13, 2009
March 13th, 2009 Picks
Ach, mein Gott!! 1-2-1 for the day with 11 winners to choose from. I’d say unbelievable but I’ve done it before. That 6 OT game with Syracuse was incredible! Easily worth UCONN not covering Flynn’s assists. The NHL games were all close with two of them going to a shootout. Utah State had a ridiculous game from behind the arc. They were shooting 80% on threes at one point and finished 13 for 21. NC State was real disappointing to me as I thought they could have played better, but Maryland was more precise, better coached, and played more as a team. Then as I was watching the Lakers game the announcers let us know that Josh Powell played for NC State. Hahah, nice bit of unwanted synchronicity.
Terrific upsets going on with Baylor taking down Kansas, Oklahoma State beating Oklahoma, and West Virginia toppling Pittsburgh (sorry Keller). I probably should have picked against myself with UCONN after seeing how flat the other three double-bye Big East teams performed earlier in the day. And SGMB defeated me, soundly. Well I’m 8 off the monthly leader now so it’s lights out for me barring a few flawless days. Undaunted and on with the picks.
1) Lawrence Westbrook vs. Raymar Morgan – Morgan pts.
2) Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina – 155 points or less
3) Tiger Woods 2nd Round Score: 67 or less vs. 68 or more – 67 or less
4) Ohio State vs. Wisconsin – Wisconsin
5) Georgia Tech vs. Florida State – Georgia Tech
6) Mississippi State vs. South Carolina – Mississippi State
7) Leixoes @ Paços de Ferreira – Paços de Ferreira win
8) Detroit @ Toronto – Detroit
9) Scottie Reynolds vs. Earl Clark – Clark pts.
10) Arizona State vs. Washington – Arizona State
11) West Virginia vs. Syracuse – West Virginia
12) Taj Gibson vs. Josh Shipp – Gibson pts.
Analysis
1) Westbrook averages 12.4 on the season, Morgan averages 11.2. Raymar Morgan had a case of walking pneumonia and it looks like he just got over it at the beginning of this month. His past six games he has scored 3, 3, 4, 14, 14, and 7 points. Westbrook had four games in February in which he scored 4 points for no injury or health reason I can see. Morgan is a high percentage shooter scoring inside, Westbrook is a much better free throw shooter and from behind the arc. This is a tough prop with both players liable to score in single digits. Westbrook is the second leading scorer for Michigan State behind Kalin Lucas and Westbrook is the leading scorer for Minnesota.
UPDATE: In their previous matchup Westbrook outscored Morgan 11 to 10, but Travis Walton, a solid defensive player, was not in for Michigan State. In the second game Walton played and Westbrook scored 6 points. Raymar Morgan probably won’t have to score much to win here.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Ty Lawson will either not play for North Carolina or will play but be less than 100. Either way one would expect the Tarheel offense to be just a bit slower and a bit less efficient. The last game against Virginia Tech went over by 9 points mainly due to Virginia Tech fouling at the end in an attempt to get back into the game. If North Carolina is ahead by 10 or less than 4 in the final minute VIrginia Tech is doubtful to send them to the line quickly and constantly.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
4) Wisconsin won the lone regular season meeting against Ohio State 55-50. Ohio State shot 55.3 from the field and Wisconsin shot 36.4. Wisconsin was able to overcome that because they had 14 offensive rebounds to 3 for Ohio State and ended up shooting 13 more field goals than the Buckeyes. Ohio State had 19 turnovers to 9 for Wisconsin. I think the turnover margin will be smaller in this game but Wisconsin will probably have a similar advantage in rebounds and second-chance points. If Wisconsin shoots a better percentage, something close to 40, they should win here.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
9) Scottie Reynolds has been averaging 17.7 points in his last 10 games and Earl Clark has been averaging 16.8. Overall the stats look to favor Reynolds who is much more efficient at scoring at 1.43 points per shot compared to 1.16 for Clark. Terrence Williams will probably be looking to be more involved on offense and to score more which might mean fewer points for Clark. Reynolds scores most of his points on three pointers and free throws in many games. Louisville plays tough defense and won’t give up too many threes to Reynolds and I don’t see Reynolds getting to the line over and over again unless it’s that kind of game, in which case Clark could be expected to shoot many free throws as well. In their regular season meeting Clark outscored Reynolds 16 to 11. Reynolds was 0 for 2 from three point range.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
11) Syracuse played in a 70 minute 6-OT game against UCONN last night that ended at 1:22am EDT. West Virginia played a 1-3-1 zone against Pittsburgh and won, and now they’ll probably go back to a man-to-man defense to frustrate Syracuse’s ability to score the three ball and force the Orangemen to score in other ways. In their regular season matchup Syracuse scored almost at will by driving through the lane to score up close. West Virginia’s defense has been playing terrific lately and they will play more physically this time and test Syracuse’s ability to drive for layups. West Virginia did not shoot the ball well in the regular season game and I expect they will perform better this time around.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
12) Taj Gibson scored a meager 2 points in his most recent game against UCLA. Gibson went out at the beginning of the second half with a dislocated pinky in that game. The game was at UCLA and Shipp scored 19 points, 11 on free throws. I think USC will be better prepared for a UCLA pressure defense this time around. In their first game of the season Gibson outscored Shipp 13 to 10 even though he fouled out after 23 minutes of playing time while Shipp played 29 minutes. Shipp generally plays fewer minutes than Gibson (32.6 mins. vs. 36.4 mins. in their past 5 games.) Gibson is averaging 14.2 points in his last 10 games and Shipp is averaging 17.5.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
Terrific upsets going on with Baylor taking down Kansas, Oklahoma State beating Oklahoma, and West Virginia toppling Pittsburgh (sorry Keller). I probably should have picked against myself with UCONN after seeing how flat the other three double-bye Big East teams performed earlier in the day. And SGMB defeated me, soundly. Well I’m 8 off the monthly leader now so it’s lights out for me barring a few flawless days. Undaunted and on with the picks.
1) Lawrence Westbrook vs. Raymar Morgan – Morgan pts.
2) Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina – 155 points or less
3) Tiger Woods 2nd Round Score: 67 or less vs. 68 or more – 67 or less
4) Ohio State vs. Wisconsin – Wisconsin
5) Georgia Tech vs. Florida State – Georgia Tech
6) Mississippi State vs. South Carolina – Mississippi State
7) Leixoes @ Paços de Ferreira – Paços de Ferreira win
8) Detroit @ Toronto – Detroit
9) Scottie Reynolds vs. Earl Clark – Clark pts.
10) Arizona State vs. Washington – Arizona State
11) West Virginia vs. Syracuse – West Virginia
12) Taj Gibson vs. Josh Shipp – Gibson pts.
Analysis
1) Westbrook averages 12.4 on the season, Morgan averages 11.2. Raymar Morgan had a case of walking pneumonia and it looks like he just got over it at the beginning of this month. His past six games he has scored 3, 3, 4, 14, 14, and 7 points. Westbrook had four games in February in which he scored 4 points for no injury or health reason I can see. Morgan is a high percentage shooter scoring inside, Westbrook is a much better free throw shooter and from behind the arc. This is a tough prop with both players liable to score in single digits. Westbrook is the second leading scorer for Michigan State behind Kalin Lucas and Westbrook is the leading scorer for Minnesota.
UPDATE: In their previous matchup Westbrook outscored Morgan 11 to 10, but Travis Walton, a solid defensive player, was not in for Michigan State. In the second game Walton played and Westbrook scored 6 points. Raymar Morgan probably won’t have to score much to win here.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Ty Lawson will either not play for North Carolina or will play but be less than 100. Either way one would expect the Tarheel offense to be just a bit slower and a bit less efficient. The last game against Virginia Tech went over by 9 points mainly due to Virginia Tech fouling at the end in an attempt to get back into the game. If North Carolina is ahead by 10 or less than 4 in the final minute VIrginia Tech is doubtful to send them to the line quickly and constantly.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
4) Wisconsin won the lone regular season meeting against Ohio State 55-50. Ohio State shot 55.3 from the field and Wisconsin shot 36.4. Wisconsin was able to overcome that because they had 14 offensive rebounds to 3 for Ohio State and ended up shooting 13 more field goals than the Buckeyes. Ohio State had 19 turnovers to 9 for Wisconsin. I think the turnover margin will be smaller in this game but Wisconsin will probably have a similar advantage in rebounds and second-chance points. If Wisconsin shoots a better percentage, something close to 40, they should win here.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
9) Scottie Reynolds has been averaging 17.7 points in his last 10 games and Earl Clark has been averaging 16.8. Overall the stats look to favor Reynolds who is much more efficient at scoring at 1.43 points per shot compared to 1.16 for Clark. Terrence Williams will probably be looking to be more involved on offense and to score more which might mean fewer points for Clark. Reynolds scores most of his points on three pointers and free throws in many games. Louisville plays tough defense and won’t give up too many threes to Reynolds and I don’t see Reynolds getting to the line over and over again unless it’s that kind of game, in which case Clark could be expected to shoot many free throws as well. In their regular season meeting Clark outscored Reynolds 16 to 11. Reynolds was 0 for 2 from three point range.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
11) Syracuse played in a 70 minute 6-OT game against UCONN last night that ended at 1:22am EDT. West Virginia played a 1-3-1 zone against Pittsburgh and won, and now they’ll probably go back to a man-to-man defense to frustrate Syracuse’s ability to score the three ball and force the Orangemen to score in other ways. In their regular season matchup Syracuse scored almost at will by driving through the lane to score up close. West Virginia’s defense has been playing terrific lately and they will play more physically this time and test Syracuse’s ability to drive for layups. West Virginia did not shoot the ball well in the regular season game and I expect they will perform better this time around.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
12) Taj Gibson scored a meager 2 points in his most recent game against UCLA. Gibson went out at the beginning of the second half with a dislocated pinky in that game. The game was at UCLA and Shipp scored 19 points, 11 on free throws. I think USC will be better prepared for a UCLA pressure defense this time around. In their first game of the season Gibson outscored Shipp 13 to 10 even though he fouled out after 23 minutes of playing time while Shipp played 29 minutes. Shipp generally plays fewer minutes than Gibson (32.6 mins. vs. 36.4 mins. in their past 5 games.) Gibson is averaging 14.2 points in his last 10 games and Shipp is averaging 17.5.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
Thursday, March 12, 2009
March 12th, 2009 Picks
Bad day overall, 2-2-0 on my picks and the Jazz finally lost, at Atlanta. They came back from 13 down at the half, but couldn’t pull away when they got the lead. Providence and DePaul shot over 40% on 50 threes and ended up going over by 9. Baylor kicked Nebraska when they were down and won 65-49. Wesley Matthews played good defense on Paris Horne and had 11 points at the half, St. John’s had 10. Matthews and Marquette won, Matthews 20-15. Dwight Thorne II had 15 points and Colorado never let Texas run away with things, losing by 11. Ronaldo scored Manchester United’s second goal and Inter Milan was shut out completely. Barcelona and Lyons had 5 goals in the first half, and Barcelona won 5-2. Cabrera hit a double and Wright batted .000.
Oklahoma State gave Iowa State a quick layup at the end of a blowout, putting the game over at 148 total points. West Virginia played good defense, McAlarney and Ayers got hot in the second half and ended up with 7 threes between them, but the Mountaineers finished the game up by 12. Kobe Bryant scored 37 points behind 60% shooting on 23 attempts. Mount Saint Mary’s had their worst shooting game from behind the arc of the season by far, shooting 8.3% and making one of 12 free throws. Robert Morris had 4 threes. Vancouver rallied to send their game into overtime but Anaheim won in the extra period 4-3. Finally, Oregon and Washington State both went cold down the stretch and ended up scoring 102 points combined. So on to the picks then, eh?
1) Tiger Woods’ 1st Round Score: 68 or under vs. 69 or over – 69 or over
2) Miami(FL) vs. Virginia Tech – Virginia Tech
3) Sharaud Curry vs. Terrence Williams – Williams pts.
4) Shakhtar Donetsk @ CSKA Moscow – CSKA Moscow wins
5) Iowa vs. Michigan – 119 points or less
6) Marquette vs. Villanova – Villanova
7) Indiana vs. Penn State – 123 points or less
8) Fresno State vs. Utah State – Utah State scores more threes
9) Washington Capitals @ Philadelphia Flyers – Philadelphia
10) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Columbus Blue Jackets – Pittsburgh
11) North Carolina State vs. Maryland – North Carolina State
12) Devin Ebanks reb. vs. Pittsburgh win margin – Ebanks reb.
13) Vanderbilt vs. Alabama – Alabama
14) Los Angeles Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs – San Antonio
15) Minnesota Wild @ Colorado Avalanche – Colorado
16) California vs. USC – USC
17) Jonny Flynn ast. vs. Connecticut win margin – Connecticut win margin
18) Cleveland @ Phoenix – Phoenix
A loooot of matchups today, any of us should be able to pick 4 or 5 winners out of this yea? If only it were that easy. I’ve got Terrence Williams in the morning, Sharaud Curry has had two good games from behind the arc in a row and for him to shoot as well for a third straight game would be a first for him. I just hope this Williams having the flu recently rumor ends up not affecting his game. Good luck everybody!
Analysis
3) Sharaud Curry has been playing extremely well lately, averaging 16.2 points in his last 10 games at 1.54 points per shot. Terrence Williams, on the other hand, has only been averaging 12.9 in his last 10 at 1.25 points per shot. That average includes three games where he was recovering from a sore wrist, including one game in which he scored zero points and took zero shots. Discounting those games he has been averaging 17.3 points at 1.40 points per shot. In their regular season meeting Curry scored 15 and Williams scored 17. Curry has not had consecutive 20+ point games this season. Louisville usually plays strong defense and usually score easy points in transition. I think Curry will score around 15 again, but Williams will have an easier time scoring 20.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
5) Iowa and Michigan scored 113 points in their regular season game at Michigan, and 130 points in overtime when they played at Iowa. They had scored 112 points by the end of regulation. Washington State plays at a slow pace, averaging around 50 field goal attempts per game. Iowa is positively lethargic then averaging 46 attempts per game. The two teams combine to average 48 three point attempts per game which would favor the over since they are both moderate three point shooting teams, with Iowa shooting 36.7% and Michigan shooting 32.9. They shot 39 and 52 threes in scoring 113 and 112 points during the regular season. They have shot fewer free throws than average when they’ve played each other.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
6) Marquette lost to Villanova at Villanova by 18, and defeated them by 7 at home. For both of those games Dominic James was playing for the Golden Eagles. Villanova has Dante Cunningham, Dwayne Anderson, Reggie Redding, Scottie Reynolds, and the Coreys to counter Jerel McNeal, Wesley Matthews, Lazar Hayward, and Maurice Acker. If one team has a player with a career game and the other team has all their players just going average the team with the career game will win. Without Dominic James, and with both teams having good games from their players I think Villanova wins.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
8) Fresno State averages 20.6 three point attempts and 7.2 makes per game. Utah State takes 15.9 three pointers per game and makes 6.2 of them. Utah State shoots 39.2 on threes as a team, while Fresno State shoots 34.8. Fresno has 5 players averaging about 1.0 three per game or more, Utah State has only 2. In their first 9 conference games Utah State attempted 20+ threes just once, but have shot over 20 threes 3 times in their last 7 conference games, including their last two games of the season. In their first game of the season Fresno State made 5 threes and Utah State made 7. In their second game Fresno State made 9 and Utah State made 4. I think Utah State will shoot more than average and Fresno State will have a poor % from behind the arc tonight.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) Philadelphia is 2-0-1 against Washington this year, with Nittymaki in net for the two victories and Biron in net for a shootout loss. They have split two games in Washington and the Flyers won 7-1 when they played in Philadelphia. Brent Johnson was in net for that loss, and Jose Theodore was in for the home games they split. Ovechkin played in all three games. Theodore and Biron are expected to be in tonight. Washington is 16-12-4 on the road and Philadelphia is 20-9-4 at home.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
11) In their regular season game North Carolina State was down by two with 6:53 remaining. They lost by 11 due to Greivis Vasquez making a three point shot with two seconds left. Maryland shot 47.6 on three pointers in that game, while the Wolfpack shot 26.3. Overall North Carolina State is ranked 86th in three point defense and Maryland is ranked 237th, so I would expect North Carolina State to shoot the higher percentage this time around. Maryland had 8 turnovers to 16 for the Wolfpack during the regular season. That is 4.5 below Maryland’s season average and 1.5 above North Carolina State’s season average. Landon Milbourne fouled out in 19 minutes against the Wolfpack earlier, so I think he’ll contribute more for Maryland this time. Maryland is a 1.5 point favorite. It should be a close game, but I think North Carolina State ends up winning by 3 or 4.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
15) Colorado is 1-3-0 against Minnesota this season, and 3-7-0 in their last 10 games overall. Minnesota is 4-4-2 in their last 10. Niklas Backstrom has a GAA of 3.50 in his last four starts. Minnesota would certainly be favored to win, but I like Colorado at home.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
17) Jonny Flynn averages 6.4 assists on the season and 7.9 in his last 10 games. Flynn has double digit assists in 4 of his 32 games, 12.5 of them, with those four games being against Georgetown, DePaul, Seton Hall, and Coppin State. Against the top 4 in the Big East Flynn has had 7, 6, 4, and 3 assists. Flynn had 3 assists in Syracuse’s regular season game against Connecticut. Connecticut is a 3.5 point favorite at the start of the day.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
18) Phoenix is on their longest losing streak of the year at five straight losses. Cleveland struggled to beat a the Los Angeles Clippers two nights ago, though in their defense the Clippers were at full strength for the first time this season. Cleveland beat Phoenix by 17 in Cleveland behind a strong night from Mo Williams who scored 44 points and made 7 of 9 three pointers. I don’t think Williams plays that well again. LeBron should have another great game and unless Nash and Shaq play terrific Phoenix can expect another loss.
Confidence: W1 or less
Oklahoma State gave Iowa State a quick layup at the end of a blowout, putting the game over at 148 total points. West Virginia played good defense, McAlarney and Ayers got hot in the second half and ended up with 7 threes between them, but the Mountaineers finished the game up by 12. Kobe Bryant scored 37 points behind 60% shooting on 23 attempts. Mount Saint Mary’s had their worst shooting game from behind the arc of the season by far, shooting 8.3% and making one of 12 free throws. Robert Morris had 4 threes. Vancouver rallied to send their game into overtime but Anaheim won in the extra period 4-3. Finally, Oregon and Washington State both went cold down the stretch and ended up scoring 102 points combined. So on to the picks then, eh?
1) Tiger Woods’ 1st Round Score: 68 or under vs. 69 or over – 69 or over
2) Miami(FL) vs. Virginia Tech – Virginia Tech
3) Sharaud Curry vs. Terrence Williams – Williams pts.
4) Shakhtar Donetsk @ CSKA Moscow – CSKA Moscow wins
5) Iowa vs. Michigan – 119 points or less
6) Marquette vs. Villanova – Villanova
7) Indiana vs. Penn State – 123 points or less
8) Fresno State vs. Utah State – Utah State scores more threes
9) Washington Capitals @ Philadelphia Flyers – Philadelphia
10) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Columbus Blue Jackets – Pittsburgh
11) North Carolina State vs. Maryland – North Carolina State
12) Devin Ebanks reb. vs. Pittsburgh win margin – Ebanks reb.
13) Vanderbilt vs. Alabama – Alabama
14) Los Angeles Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs – San Antonio
15) Minnesota Wild @ Colorado Avalanche – Colorado
16) California vs. USC – USC
17) Jonny Flynn ast. vs. Connecticut win margin – Connecticut win margin
18) Cleveland @ Phoenix – Phoenix
A loooot of matchups today, any of us should be able to pick 4 or 5 winners out of this yea? If only it were that easy. I’ve got Terrence Williams in the morning, Sharaud Curry has had two good games from behind the arc in a row and for him to shoot as well for a third straight game would be a first for him. I just hope this Williams having the flu recently rumor ends up not affecting his game. Good luck everybody!
Analysis
3) Sharaud Curry has been playing extremely well lately, averaging 16.2 points in his last 10 games at 1.54 points per shot. Terrence Williams, on the other hand, has only been averaging 12.9 in his last 10 at 1.25 points per shot. That average includes three games where he was recovering from a sore wrist, including one game in which he scored zero points and took zero shots. Discounting those games he has been averaging 17.3 points at 1.40 points per shot. In their regular season meeting Curry scored 15 and Williams scored 17. Curry has not had consecutive 20+ point games this season. Louisville usually plays strong defense and usually score easy points in transition. I think Curry will score around 15 again, but Williams will have an easier time scoring 20.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
5) Iowa and Michigan scored 113 points in their regular season game at Michigan, and 130 points in overtime when they played at Iowa. They had scored 112 points by the end of regulation. Washington State plays at a slow pace, averaging around 50 field goal attempts per game. Iowa is positively lethargic then averaging 46 attempts per game. The two teams combine to average 48 three point attempts per game which would favor the over since they are both moderate three point shooting teams, with Iowa shooting 36.7% and Michigan shooting 32.9. They shot 39 and 52 threes in scoring 113 and 112 points during the regular season. They have shot fewer free throws than average when they’ve played each other.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
6) Marquette lost to Villanova at Villanova by 18, and defeated them by 7 at home. For both of those games Dominic James was playing for the Golden Eagles. Villanova has Dante Cunningham, Dwayne Anderson, Reggie Redding, Scottie Reynolds, and the Coreys to counter Jerel McNeal, Wesley Matthews, Lazar Hayward, and Maurice Acker. If one team has a player with a career game and the other team has all their players just going average the team with the career game will win. Without Dominic James, and with both teams having good games from their players I think Villanova wins.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
8) Fresno State averages 20.6 three point attempts and 7.2 makes per game. Utah State takes 15.9 three pointers per game and makes 6.2 of them. Utah State shoots 39.2 on threes as a team, while Fresno State shoots 34.8. Fresno has 5 players averaging about 1.0 three per game or more, Utah State has only 2. In their first 9 conference games Utah State attempted 20+ threes just once, but have shot over 20 threes 3 times in their last 7 conference games, including their last two games of the season. In their first game of the season Fresno State made 5 threes and Utah State made 7. In their second game Fresno State made 9 and Utah State made 4. I think Utah State will shoot more than average and Fresno State will have a poor % from behind the arc tonight.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) Philadelphia is 2-0-1 against Washington this year, with Nittymaki in net for the two victories and Biron in net for a shootout loss. They have split two games in Washington and the Flyers won 7-1 when they played in Philadelphia. Brent Johnson was in net for that loss, and Jose Theodore was in for the home games they split. Ovechkin played in all three games. Theodore and Biron are expected to be in tonight. Washington is 16-12-4 on the road and Philadelphia is 20-9-4 at home.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
11) In their regular season game North Carolina State was down by two with 6:53 remaining. They lost by 11 due to Greivis Vasquez making a three point shot with two seconds left. Maryland shot 47.6 on three pointers in that game, while the Wolfpack shot 26.3. Overall North Carolina State is ranked 86th in three point defense and Maryland is ranked 237th, so I would expect North Carolina State to shoot the higher percentage this time around. Maryland had 8 turnovers to 16 for the Wolfpack during the regular season. That is 4.5 below Maryland’s season average and 1.5 above North Carolina State’s season average. Landon Milbourne fouled out in 19 minutes against the Wolfpack earlier, so I think he’ll contribute more for Maryland this time. Maryland is a 1.5 point favorite. It should be a close game, but I think North Carolina State ends up winning by 3 or 4.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
15) Colorado is 1-3-0 against Minnesota this season, and 3-7-0 in their last 10 games overall. Minnesota is 4-4-2 in their last 10. Niklas Backstrom has a GAA of 3.50 in his last four starts. Minnesota would certainly be favored to win, but I like Colorado at home.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
17) Jonny Flynn averages 6.4 assists on the season and 7.9 in his last 10 games. Flynn has double digit assists in 4 of his 32 games, 12.5 of them, with those four games being against Georgetown, DePaul, Seton Hall, and Coppin State. Against the top 4 in the Big East Flynn has had 7, 6, 4, and 3 assists. Flynn had 3 assists in Syracuse’s regular season game against Connecticut. Connecticut is a 3.5 point favorite at the start of the day.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
18) Phoenix is on their longest losing streak of the year at five straight losses. Cleveland struggled to beat a the Los Angeles Clippers two nights ago, though in their defense the Clippers were at full strength for the first time this season. Cleveland beat Phoenix by 17 in Cleveland behind a strong night from Mo Williams who scored 44 points and made 7 of 9 three pointers. I don’t think Williams plays that well again. LeBron should have another great game and unless Nash and Shaq play terrific Phoenix can expect another loss.
Confidence: W1 or less
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
March 11th, 2009 Picks
Well 3-1-0 day yesterday, and the Jazz won in Indiana so pretty sweet day overall. Utah plays in Atlanta tonight, and it would be surprising to me if they got their 13th straight win. Anyways, DePaul upset Cincinnati and they stopped fouling and scoring just in the nick of time to go under. Summers had foul trouble early and Horne won by bunches, Real Madrid looked like a team that had been relegated once or twice as Liverpool won the match 4-0, Bayern Munich put down more of the same in winning 7-1 of Sporting Lisbon, and Rutgers and Notre Dame had trouble scoring most of the game with 111 total points.
The Capitals came back to beat Nashville 2-1 in overtime, the Knicks and Larry Hughes especially played well enough to beat Milwaukee, and North Dakota State won by virtue of having the greater three point percentage. St. Louis held a 3 goal lead over Dallas and won 5-2, Butler and Cleveland State turned up the pressure early and scored only 111, and Slaughter scored more regularly throughout the game in a winning effort against South Alabama and Tilford. Hawaii could only play their game for about 25 minutes and used the last 15 minutes to slip and fall with Fresno State winning by four. So on the picks already, naja?
1) DePaul vs. Providence – 147 points or fewer
2) Baylor vs. Nebraska – Nebraska
3) Paris Horne vs. Wesley Matthews – Matthews pts.
4) Dwight Thorne II points vs. Texas winning margin – Thorne II pts.
5) Inter Milan team goals vs. Rooney and Ronaldo goals – Inter Milan team goals
6) Lyon @ Barcelona – 2 goals or fewer
7) Miguel Cabrera vs. David Wright – Cabrera records more total bases
8) Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State – 147 points or more
9) West Virginia win margin vs. Ayers and McAlarney threes – West Virginia win margin
10) Kobe Bryant pts. @ Houston: 29 or less vs. 30 or more – 29 or less
11) Mount St. Mary’s vs. Robert Morris – Mount St. Mary’s scores more threes
12) Vancouver Canucks @ Anaheim Ducks – Vancouver
13) Oregon vs. Washington State – 123 points or more
Analysis
1) Not really going on much here except that Providence and DePaul combined for 116 points the last time they played. DePaul had a pretty bad shooting night in that game, but the Friars shot around 40% on field goals, over 33% on threes and 5 of 10 on free throws. The game went under because of the small number of possessions, however, not because of remarkly abysmal shooting. Unless DePaul gets drawn into playing much faster than they have all season, this should go under, as both teams would have to shoot 55%-60% on an ‘average’ number of possessions to go over.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
3) Matthews wasn’t needed to score much against St. John’s earlier in the season, but now that Dominic James is hurt they’ll need Matthews to score as much as ever. The Marquette defense should do a good job of disrupting Paris Horne who is already a fairly low percentage shooter compared to many scorers. Matthews shoots 12.2 field goals per game lately, Horne shoots 14.3. Matthews averages 1.63 points per shot, and Horne averages 1.18. Horne won this prop in the regular season 23-9, but he shot 60% on threes and over 50% from the field, which he has not been able to do often.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
4) This is a risky pick to take, but Dwight Thorne II, being a 41% three point shooter and 48.6% from the field has the capability to put a lot of points up. He’s been struggling lately, taking no more than 6 shots in his last four games. He will score around ten points most likely, but could score over 25. Texas is favored by 14 points. How many conference tournament games have been blowouts?
Confidence: W1 or less
8) Iowa State and Oklahoma State are fairly fast paced teams for the Big 12, Iowa averaging 54 shots per game and Oklahoma State averaging 59 shots. Combined the two average 45 three point attempts, and 17 three pointers scored and about 28 free throws made. They would have to make 50% of their remaining field goals to go over. In their previous game they scored 153 despite taking fewer field goals. They shot 45 free throws and 44 three pointers, and that is what put them over. In conference Iowa State’s games have gone over 4 of 16 times, and Oklahoma State’s games have gone over 11 of 16 times.
Confidence: W2 or less
9) West Virginia plays a tough man to man defense. That should make it difficult for Notre Dame to find a man open by passing the ball around the top of the key or by driving inside and then kicking the ball back out. In previous Big East games Notre Dame have been reluctant to shoot three pointers when they are covered, McAlarney in particular. I think Notre Dame will need to win the game outright for Ayers and McAlarney to win this prop, and they definitely could, but I think West Virginia will rebound from the loss to Louisville and win fairly easily.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
10) Kobe Bryant can be a deadly shooter and when he gets hot there is nobody in the league that can stop him. Still, after winning so many games with the Lakers by getting his teammates involved in offense, and after losing so badly to Portland after taking 28 shots (and scoring under 30) I can see Kobe limiting his role on offense for this game. The Houston Rockets will have Artest guarding Bryant and are one of the toughest teams on defense in the NBA. Barring an MVP performance from Kobe I think he will score under 30.
UPDATE: OK, my mistake. Shane Battier is the primary defender on Kobe. Battier is no slouch, however, and I would expect Artest to play some help defense on Kobe, or to switch on to him on screens. I still like 29 points or less.
UPDATE2: Odom will be out with suspension but his backup, Josh Powell, has outscored Odom in three of their past five games and in fewer minutes. I think he will more than make up for Odom’s absence.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
11) So Robert Morris has Mount St. Mary’s beat in every category of stat one might look at to choose this kind of prop. They shoot a higher percentage of threes, they take more threes, so not surprisingly they make more threes, and they have more high percentage (over 39%) three point shooters than Mount St. Mary’s does. So it was kind of weird when I saw Robert Morris had lost this prop to them both times they’d played earlier in the year. In a close game that Robert Morris eventually won they took only four threes and made 2 while Mount St. Mary’s made 3 of 10. In the other game Robert Morris also won the game but lost the prop 6 to 3. Robert Morris made 3 of 8 threes when they were losing and 0 of 3 threes after they had the lead. Mount St. Mary’s was shooting threes whether or not they had the lead and ended up shooting 16 threes. Robert Morris has shot many threes against other teams with the lead, maybe Mount St. Mary’s has a difficult time stopping Robert Morris’ interior scoring.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
13) Oregon and Washington State combined for 105 points in their regular season game at Washington State. Oregon had 18 minutes in which they scored zero points. I don’t think Oregon will remain scoreless for nearly a half in this game. In their game at Oregon they combined for 136 points and Oregon only had three completely flat minutes.
Confidence: W4 or less
The Capitals came back to beat Nashville 2-1 in overtime, the Knicks and Larry Hughes especially played well enough to beat Milwaukee, and North Dakota State won by virtue of having the greater three point percentage. St. Louis held a 3 goal lead over Dallas and won 5-2, Butler and Cleveland State turned up the pressure early and scored only 111, and Slaughter scored more regularly throughout the game in a winning effort against South Alabama and Tilford. Hawaii could only play their game for about 25 minutes and used the last 15 minutes to slip and fall with Fresno State winning by four. So on the picks already, naja?
1) DePaul vs. Providence – 147 points or fewer
2) Baylor vs. Nebraska – Nebraska
3) Paris Horne vs. Wesley Matthews – Matthews pts.
4) Dwight Thorne II points vs. Texas winning margin – Thorne II pts.
5) Inter Milan team goals vs. Rooney and Ronaldo goals – Inter Milan team goals
6) Lyon @ Barcelona – 2 goals or fewer
7) Miguel Cabrera vs. David Wright – Cabrera records more total bases
8) Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State – 147 points or more
9) West Virginia win margin vs. Ayers and McAlarney threes – West Virginia win margin
10) Kobe Bryant pts. @ Houston: 29 or less vs. 30 or more – 29 or less
11) Mount St. Mary’s vs. Robert Morris – Mount St. Mary’s scores more threes
12) Vancouver Canucks @ Anaheim Ducks – Vancouver
13) Oregon vs. Washington State – 123 points or more
Analysis
1) Not really going on much here except that Providence and DePaul combined for 116 points the last time they played. DePaul had a pretty bad shooting night in that game, but the Friars shot around 40% on field goals, over 33% on threes and 5 of 10 on free throws. The game went under because of the small number of possessions, however, not because of remarkly abysmal shooting. Unless DePaul gets drawn into playing much faster than they have all season, this should go under, as both teams would have to shoot 55%-60% on an ‘average’ number of possessions to go over.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
3) Matthews wasn’t needed to score much against St. John’s earlier in the season, but now that Dominic James is hurt they’ll need Matthews to score as much as ever. The Marquette defense should do a good job of disrupting Paris Horne who is already a fairly low percentage shooter compared to many scorers. Matthews shoots 12.2 field goals per game lately, Horne shoots 14.3. Matthews averages 1.63 points per shot, and Horne averages 1.18. Horne won this prop in the regular season 23-9, but he shot 60% on threes and over 50% from the field, which he has not been able to do often.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
4) This is a risky pick to take, but Dwight Thorne II, being a 41% three point shooter and 48.6% from the field has the capability to put a lot of points up. He’s been struggling lately, taking no more than 6 shots in his last four games. He will score around ten points most likely, but could score over 25. Texas is favored by 14 points. How many conference tournament games have been blowouts?
Confidence: W1 or less
8) Iowa State and Oklahoma State are fairly fast paced teams for the Big 12, Iowa averaging 54 shots per game and Oklahoma State averaging 59 shots. Combined the two average 45 three point attempts, and 17 three pointers scored and about 28 free throws made. They would have to make 50% of their remaining field goals to go over. In their previous game they scored 153 despite taking fewer field goals. They shot 45 free throws and 44 three pointers, and that is what put them over. In conference Iowa State’s games have gone over 4 of 16 times, and Oklahoma State’s games have gone over 11 of 16 times.
Confidence: W2 or less
9) West Virginia plays a tough man to man defense. That should make it difficult for Notre Dame to find a man open by passing the ball around the top of the key or by driving inside and then kicking the ball back out. In previous Big East games Notre Dame have been reluctant to shoot three pointers when they are covered, McAlarney in particular. I think Notre Dame will need to win the game outright for Ayers and McAlarney to win this prop, and they definitely could, but I think West Virginia will rebound from the loss to Louisville and win fairly easily.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
10) Kobe Bryant can be a deadly shooter and when he gets hot there is nobody in the league that can stop him. Still, after winning so many games with the Lakers by getting his teammates involved in offense, and after losing so badly to Portland after taking 28 shots (and scoring under 30) I can see Kobe limiting his role on offense for this game. The Houston Rockets will have Artest guarding Bryant and are one of the toughest teams on defense in the NBA. Barring an MVP performance from Kobe I think he will score under 30.
UPDATE: OK, my mistake. Shane Battier is the primary defender on Kobe. Battier is no slouch, however, and I would expect Artest to play some help defense on Kobe, or to switch on to him on screens. I still like 29 points or less.
UPDATE2: Odom will be out with suspension but his backup, Josh Powell, has outscored Odom in three of their past five games and in fewer minutes. I think he will more than make up for Odom’s absence.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
11) So Robert Morris has Mount St. Mary’s beat in every category of stat one might look at to choose this kind of prop. They shoot a higher percentage of threes, they take more threes, so not surprisingly they make more threes, and they have more high percentage (over 39%) three point shooters than Mount St. Mary’s does. So it was kind of weird when I saw Robert Morris had lost this prop to them both times they’d played earlier in the year. In a close game that Robert Morris eventually won they took only four threes and made 2 while Mount St. Mary’s made 3 of 10. In the other game Robert Morris also won the game but lost the prop 6 to 3. Robert Morris made 3 of 8 threes when they were losing and 0 of 3 threes after they had the lead. Mount St. Mary’s was shooting threes whether or not they had the lead and ended up shooting 16 threes. Robert Morris has shot many threes against other teams with the lead, maybe Mount St. Mary’s has a difficult time stopping Robert Morris’ interior scoring.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
13) Oregon and Washington State combined for 105 points in their regular season game at Washington State. Oregon had 18 minutes in which they scored zero points. I don’t think Oregon will remain scoreless for nearly a half in this game. In their game at Oregon they combined for 136 points and Oregon only had three completely flat minutes.
Confidence: W4 or less
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
March 10th, 2009 Picks
A much better day overall, 3-1-0. Things started out rough with Vejle going up on AGF Aarhus 1-0 at the half. Aarhus decided to be mean and rub it in by making things close with a late goal while proceeding to miss easy shots on the way. At one point the goalie for Vejle was out of position and Nando Rafael had a shot at an open net from inside the box, but he managed to loft it up and over the goal, d’oh! So I went with women’s college basketball from there. There were 41 turnovers combined after 25 minutes of play so I don’t think I’ll be watching much women’s basketball soon. Oh yea, Charlotte won.
Justin Morneau won easily, I took Carolina over the Rangers, the Hawks, being the more talented team, of course beat New Orleans. Then Charleston gave up 20 straight points to UTC after being tied at the half and lost, the Pistons toughed out a win after Rasheed went out with a calf injury in the 1st, and Niagara couldn’t quite find the energy to come back and beat Siena. St. Mary’s and Gonzaga scored 141, the Trailblazers humiliated the Lakers, I took South Alabama for another win, and the Kings triumphed over Luongo and the ‘Nucks. I guess Vancouver is never a good pick when they’re on a four game winning streak. =D So on to the picks!
1) DePaul vs. Cincinnati – 129 points or fewer
2) DaJuan Summers vs. Paris Horne – Horne pts.
3) Real Madrid @ Liverpool – Real Madrid win or draw
4) Sporting Lisbon @ Bayern Munich – 3 goals or more
5) Notre Dame vs. Rutgers – 142 points or more
6) Washington Capitals @ Nashville Predators – Washington
7) New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks – New York
8) Oakland vs North Dakota State – North Dakota State scores more threes
9) Dallas Stars @ St. Louis Blues – St. Louis
10) Cleveland State vs. Butler – 124 points or fewer
11) Dominic Tilford vs. A.J. Slaughter – Tilford pts.
12) Fresno State vs. Hawaii – Hawaii
I think I may actually go with the first two college bball games and leave soccer alone for once. Definitely avoiding soccer today, for the new ones #5, #8, #11 I’ll have to confirm my choice since I just looked at a couple stats real quickly for those. OK, now it’s mostly just the NDSU game I feel is a tossup. Good luck y’all!
Analysis
1) OK, these teams scored 114 points last time they played. At first I thought maybe one or both of them just had a bad game. Looking at DePaul and Cincinnati’s schedules I noticed something. DePaul, Cincinnati, Georgetown, and Seton Hall all happen to have ‘bad’ games when they play each other. There have been seven Big East regular season games pitting two of these teams against each other. Six of them have been under: 114, 88, 121, 110, 118, and 125 points. In the one game that went over Cincinnati and Seton Hall scored 130 points and that was only because it went into overtime. I don’t claim to know what’s going on, or why these teams have trouble scoring on one another, but I’m going under.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
3) There will be a some non-starters playing for each side and very likely some true reserves, including the goalie for Lisbon. Reserves in this case means youngsters who play for a ‘minor league’ squad as a stepping stone to making the actual team. Sporting Lisbon figures they won’t advance to the next round but they do want to win the match. Both teams have pride on the line so both teams will have more starters than not on the field.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
5) Notre Dame 70, Rutgers 65. That’s 7 points short of the over for today’s current matchup. In the previous game the Fightin’ Irish came out struggling, scoring only 27 points in the first half. They fed the ball to Luke Harangody constantly, who ended up taking just over 40% of all of Notre Dame’s field goal attempts. Ryan Ayers went 0 for 6 from the field, Hillesland didn’t even take a shot. Rutgers played similarly with three players taking almost all their shots. I think Notre Dame spreads the scoring around more evenly and that should open things up for the other scorers. I can still see this going under, however, with the Irish focusing a bit more on defense lately.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
6) It looks like Pekka Rinne has a case of the flu and so Dan Ellis will be starting for the Predators. Even though Ellis is not a bad goalie he has only 11 wins in 33 starts, and a lower save percentage than Rinne. Ovechkin and the Capitals should be able to take advantage, especially on power plays. Ellis is 5-8 at home, so while he may be playing tougher opponents at home the Predators clearly have a better winning percentage win Rinne is the goalie.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
7) Well, I like New York here because Francisco Elson and Charlie Villanueva will have a hard time preventing David Lee from racking up boards and points. Milwaukee has not beaten the Knicks since Redd and Bogut went down. Milwaukee was in better playoff position before Redd and Bogut were injured and as it stands have four teams less than two games behind them, with most of them having more games to play and thus more chances to earn wins. I like Milwaukee because Duhon, Chandler, and Robinson have all been struggling lately. If the Knicks are firing on all cylinders they should crush Milwaukee, but they haven’t. If Charlie Bell, Villanueva, Sessions, and Jefferson all have average games against a struggling Knicks team they should win easily. I’ll go with New York in the end, they’re due for a good showing.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) I think the Streakmaster was looking at Butler vs. Wright State or something when he set the line on this. In his ‘Game Blog’ he states they have scored 120 and 125 points in their last two matchups, but really they’ve scored 114 and 98 points. I expect the point total to change before the matchup locks, but it will have to go way down. Butler plays some seriously aggressive defense.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
10) Hawaii won at home against Fresno State by 26 points and again in Fresno by 4 points. In the home game Hawaii out rebounded the Bulldogs 43 to 20. In Fresno the Warriors out rebounded them 36 to 23. Fresno State will be basically giving Hawaii at least 6 points on tip-in shots. Fresno isn’t an 8 point favorite (some books have Hawaii -1, some Fresno -1 and most have it even). Fresno averages 43.8% on field goals, 67.1% from the line, and 34.4% from three so I don’t see them out-shooting a Hawaii team has taken an average of 8 more field goals than Fresno in each game. Fresno State’s biggest hope is to force more turnovers than they give and shoot well from the field.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
Justin Morneau won easily, I took Carolina over the Rangers, the Hawks, being the more talented team, of course beat New Orleans. Then Charleston gave up 20 straight points to UTC after being tied at the half and lost, the Pistons toughed out a win after Rasheed went out with a calf injury in the 1st, and Niagara couldn’t quite find the energy to come back and beat Siena. St. Mary’s and Gonzaga scored 141, the Trailblazers humiliated the Lakers, I took South Alabama for another win, and the Kings triumphed over Luongo and the ‘Nucks. I guess Vancouver is never a good pick when they’re on a four game winning streak. =D So on to the picks!
1) DePaul vs. Cincinnati – 129 points or fewer
2) DaJuan Summers vs. Paris Horne – Horne pts.
3) Real Madrid @ Liverpool – Real Madrid win or draw
4) Sporting Lisbon @ Bayern Munich – 3 goals or more
5) Notre Dame vs. Rutgers – 142 points or more
6) Washington Capitals @ Nashville Predators – Washington
7) New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks – New York
8) Oakland vs North Dakota State – North Dakota State scores more threes
9) Dallas Stars @ St. Louis Blues – St. Louis
10) Cleveland State vs. Butler – 124 points or fewer
11) Dominic Tilford vs. A.J. Slaughter – Tilford pts.
12) Fresno State vs. Hawaii – Hawaii
I think I may actually go with the first two college bball games and leave soccer alone for once. Definitely avoiding soccer today, for the new ones #5, #8, #11 I’ll have to confirm my choice since I just looked at a couple stats real quickly for those. OK, now it’s mostly just the NDSU game I feel is a tossup. Good luck y’all!
Analysis
1) OK, these teams scored 114 points last time they played. At first I thought maybe one or both of them just had a bad game. Looking at DePaul and Cincinnati’s schedules I noticed something. DePaul, Cincinnati, Georgetown, and Seton Hall all happen to have ‘bad’ games when they play each other. There have been seven Big East regular season games pitting two of these teams against each other. Six of them have been under: 114, 88, 121, 110, 118, and 125 points. In the one game that went over Cincinnati and Seton Hall scored 130 points and that was only because it went into overtime. I don’t claim to know what’s going on, or why these teams have trouble scoring on one another, but I’m going under.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
3) There will be a some non-starters playing for each side and very likely some true reserves, including the goalie for Lisbon. Reserves in this case means youngsters who play for a ‘minor league’ squad as a stepping stone to making the actual team. Sporting Lisbon figures they won’t advance to the next round but they do want to win the match. Both teams have pride on the line so both teams will have more starters than not on the field.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
5) Notre Dame 70, Rutgers 65. That’s 7 points short of the over for today’s current matchup. In the previous game the Fightin’ Irish came out struggling, scoring only 27 points in the first half. They fed the ball to Luke Harangody constantly, who ended up taking just over 40% of all of Notre Dame’s field goal attempts. Ryan Ayers went 0 for 6 from the field, Hillesland didn’t even take a shot. Rutgers played similarly with three players taking almost all their shots. I think Notre Dame spreads the scoring around more evenly and that should open things up for the other scorers. I can still see this going under, however, with the Irish focusing a bit more on defense lately.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
6) It looks like Pekka Rinne has a case of the flu and so Dan Ellis will be starting for the Predators. Even though Ellis is not a bad goalie he has only 11 wins in 33 starts, and a lower save percentage than Rinne. Ovechkin and the Capitals should be able to take advantage, especially on power plays. Ellis is 5-8 at home, so while he may be playing tougher opponents at home the Predators clearly have a better winning percentage win Rinne is the goalie.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
7) Well, I like New York here because Francisco Elson and Charlie Villanueva will have a hard time preventing David Lee from racking up boards and points. Milwaukee has not beaten the Knicks since Redd and Bogut went down. Milwaukee was in better playoff position before Redd and Bogut were injured and as it stands have four teams less than two games behind them, with most of them having more games to play and thus more chances to earn wins. I like Milwaukee because Duhon, Chandler, and Robinson have all been struggling lately. If the Knicks are firing on all cylinders they should crush Milwaukee, but they haven’t. If Charlie Bell, Villanueva, Sessions, and Jefferson all have average games against a struggling Knicks team they should win easily. I’ll go with New York in the end, they’re due for a good showing.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) I think the Streakmaster was looking at Butler vs. Wright State or something when he set the line on this. In his ‘Game Blog’ he states they have scored 120 and 125 points in their last two matchups, but really they’ve scored 114 and 98 points. I expect the point total to change before the matchup locks, but it will have to go way down. Butler plays some seriously aggressive defense.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
10) Hawaii won at home against Fresno State by 26 points and again in Fresno by 4 points. In the home game Hawaii out rebounded the Bulldogs 43 to 20. In Fresno the Warriors out rebounded them 36 to 23. Fresno State will be basically giving Hawaii at least 6 points on tip-in shots. Fresno isn’t an 8 point favorite (some books have Hawaii -1, some Fresno -1 and most have it even). Fresno averages 43.8% on field goals, 67.1% from the line, and 34.4% from three so I don’t see them out-shooting a Hawaii team has taken an average of 8 more field goals than Fresno in each game. Fresno State’s biggest hope is to force more turnovers than they give and shoot well from the field.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
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