March 12th, 2009 Picks

Bad day overall, 2-2-0 on my picks and the Jazz finally lost, at Atlanta. They came back from 13 down at the half, but couldn’t pull away when they got the lead. Providence and DePaul shot over 40% on 50 threes and ended up going over by 9. Baylor kicked Nebraska when they were down and won 65-49. Wesley Matthews played good defense on Paris Horne and had 11 points at the half, St. John’s had 10. Matthews and Marquette won, Matthews 20-15. Dwight Thorne II had 15 points and Colorado never let Texas run away with things, losing by 11. Ronaldo scored Manchester United’s second goal and Inter Milan was shut out completely. Barcelona and Lyons had 5 goals in the first half, and Barcelona won 5-2. Cabrera hit a double and Wright batted .000.

Oklahoma State gave Iowa State a quick layup at the end of a blowout, putting the game over at 148 total points. West Virginia played good defense, McAlarney and Ayers got hot in the second half and ended up with 7 threes between them, but the Mountaineers finished the game up by 12. Kobe Bryant scored 37 points behind 60% shooting on 23 attempts. Mount Saint Mary’s had their worst shooting game from behind the arc of the season by far, shooting 8.3% and making one of 12 free throws. Robert Morris had 4 threes. Vancouver rallied to send their game into overtime but Anaheim won in the extra period 4-3. Finally, Oregon and Washington State both went cold down the stretch and ended up scoring 102 points combined. So on to the picks then, eh?

1) Tiger Woods’ 1st Round Score: 68 or under vs. 69 or over – 69 or over
2) Miami(FL) vs. Virginia Tech – Virginia Tech
3) Sharaud Curry vs. Terrence Williams – Williams pts.
4) Shakhtar Donetsk @ CSKA Moscow – CSKA Moscow wins
5) Iowa vs. Michigan – 119 points or less
6) Marquette vs. Villanova – Villanova
7) Indiana vs. Penn State – 123 points or less
8) Fresno State vs. Utah State – Utah State scores more threes
9) Washington Capitals @ Philadelphia Flyers – Philadelphia
10) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Columbus Blue Jackets – Pittsburgh
11) North Carolina State vs. Maryland – North Carolina State
12) Devin Ebanks reb. vs. Pittsburgh win margin – Ebanks reb.
13) Vanderbilt vs. Alabama – Alabama
14) Los Angeles Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs – San Antonio
15) Minnesota Wild @ Colorado Avalanche – Colorado
16) California vs. USC – USC
17) Jonny Flynn ast. vs. Connecticut win margin – Connecticut win margin
18) Cleveland @ Phoenix – Phoenix

A loooot of matchups today, any of us should be able to pick 4 or 5 winners out of this yea? If only it were that easy. I’ve got Terrence Williams in the morning, Sharaud Curry has had two good games from behind the arc in a row and for him to shoot as well for a third straight game would be a first for him. I just hope this Williams having the flu recently rumor ends up not affecting his game. Good luck everybody!

Analysis
3) Sharaud Curry has been playing extremely well lately, averaging 16.2 points in his last 10 games at 1.54 points per shot. Terrence Williams, on the other hand, has only been averaging 12.9 in his last 10 at 1.25 points per shot. That average includes three games where he was recovering from a sore wrist, including one game in which he scored zero points and took zero shots. Discounting those games he has been averaging 17.3 points at 1.40 points per shot. In their regular season meeting Curry scored 15 and Williams scored 17. Curry has not had consecutive 20+ point games this season. Louisville usually plays strong defense and usually score easy points in transition. I think Curry will score around 15 again, but Williams will have an easier time scoring 20.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

5) Iowa and Michigan scored 113 points in their regular season game at Michigan, and 130 points in overtime when they played at Iowa. They had scored 112 points by the end of regulation. Washington State plays at a slow pace, averaging around 50 field goal attempts per game. Iowa is positively lethargic then averaging 46 attempts per game. The two teams combine to average 48 three point attempts per game which would favor the over since they are both moderate three point shooting teams, with Iowa shooting 36.7% and Michigan shooting 32.9. They shot 39 and 52 threes in scoring 113 and 112 points during the regular season. They have shot fewer free throws than average when they’ve played each other.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

6) Marquette lost to Villanova at Villanova by 18, and defeated them by 7 at home. For both of those games Dominic James was playing for the Golden Eagles. Villanova has Dante Cunningham, Dwayne Anderson, Reggie Redding, Scottie Reynolds, and the Coreys to counter Jerel McNeal, Wesley Matthews, Lazar Hayward, and Maurice Acker. If one team has a player with a career game and the other team has all their players just going average the team with the career game will win. Without Dominic James, and with both teams having good games from their players I think Villanova wins.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

8) Fresno State averages 20.6 three point attempts and 7.2 makes per game. Utah State takes 15.9 three pointers per game and makes 6.2 of them. Utah State shoots 39.2 on threes as a team, while Fresno State shoots 34.8. Fresno has 5 players averaging about 1.0 three per game or more, Utah State has only 2. In their first 9 conference games Utah State attempted 20+ threes just once, but have shot over 20 threes 3 times in their last 7 conference games, including their last two games of the season. In their first game of the season Fresno State made 5 threes and Utah State made 7. In their second game Fresno State made 9 and Utah State made 4. I think Utah State will shoot more than average and Fresno State will have a poor % from behind the arc tonight.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

9) Philadelphia is 2-0-1 against Washington this year, with Nittymaki in net for the two victories and Biron in net for a shootout loss. They have split two games in Washington and the Flyers won 7-1 when they played in Philadelphia. Brent Johnson was in net for that loss, and Jose Theodore was in for the home games they split. Ovechkin played in all three games. Theodore and Biron are expected to be in tonight. Washington is 16-12-4 on the road and Philadelphia is 20-9-4 at home.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

11) In their regular season game North Carolina State was down by two with 6:53 remaining. They lost by 11 due to Greivis Vasquez making a three point shot with two seconds left. Maryland shot 47.6 on three pointers in that game, while the Wolfpack shot 26.3. Overall North Carolina State is ranked 86th in three point defense and Maryland is ranked 237th, so I would expect North Carolina State to shoot the higher percentage this time around. Maryland had 8 turnovers to 16 for the Wolfpack during the regular season. That is 4.5 below Maryland’s season average and 1.5 above North Carolina State’s season average. Landon Milbourne fouled out in 19 minutes against the Wolfpack earlier, so I think he’ll contribute more for Maryland this time. Maryland is a 1.5 point favorite. It should be a close game, but I think North Carolina State ends up winning by 3 or 4.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

15) Colorado is 1-3-0 against Minnesota this season, and 3-7-0 in their last 10 games overall. Minnesota is 4-4-2 in their last 10. Niklas Backstrom has a GAA of 3.50 in his last four starts. Minnesota would certainly be favored to win, but I like Colorado at home.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

17) Jonny Flynn averages 6.4 assists on the season and 7.9 in his last 10 games. Flynn has double digit assists in 4 of his 32 games, 12.5 of them, with those four games being against Georgetown, DePaul, Seton Hall, and Coppin State. Against the top 4 in the Big East Flynn has had 7, 6, 4, and 3 assists. Flynn had 3 assists in Syracuse’s regular season game against Connecticut. Connecticut is a 3.5 point favorite at the start of the day.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

18) Phoenix is on their longest losing streak of the year at five straight losses. Cleveland struggled to beat a the Los Angeles Clippers two nights ago, though in their defense the Clippers were at full strength for the first time this season. Cleveland beat Phoenix by 17 in Cleveland behind a strong night from Mo Williams who scored 44 points and made 7 of 9 three pointers. I don’t think Williams plays that well again. LeBron should have another great game and unless Nash and Shaq play terrific Phoenix can expect another loss.
Confidence: W1 or less