click it
1-0-1 today so I have a newborn streak alive and well after some time in the ICU. My first pick was the Philadelphia Phillies. Jamie Moyer had another terrific outing as he pitched 6 innings allowing only 1 run and recording a WHIP of 1.33. He struck out 6 batters and walked only 1. Contrasting with this was Graham Taylor in his first major league start. He lasted 32/3 innings and gave up 4 earned runs in that time while walking 6 batters and striking out only 2. The Phillies were up 4-0 in the bottom of the 5th when Hanley Ramirez hit an RBI single to make it 4-1. The 7th and 8th innings were a nightmare for the Marlins’ bullpen as they gave up 9 runs total in the two innings, two of the runs being walked in with the bases loaded. The Phillies' bullpen held on to give Moyer his third win in four starts this season, Philadelphia 13, Florida 2.
My second pick was for Kevin Youkilis to record more runs, hits, and RBIs. Jeter and Youkilis each grounded out in their first at bat. Jeter reached first base on an error in his next at bat and Youkilis struck out swinging to keep their totals each at 0. Jeter singled in the top of the 5th and Youkilis was walked in the bottom of the inning. Youkilis was advanced to third on a ground rule double by Drew, but Bay struck out to end the inning. Jeter struck out in his final at bat and Youkilis hit a lead off single to record his first hit. Youkilis again advanced to third base, this time with zero outs, but Lowell hit a ground ball which was turned into a force out of Youkilis at home. In the end Jeter and Youkilis each had one hit, no runs, and no RBIs to end the prop in a push. The Red Sox won the game 4 to 1. So on to the picks.
1) Pakistan vs. Australia – Pakistan
2) Portsmouth @ Newcastle United – Portsmouth win or draw
3) St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves – Atlanta
4) Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Indians – Cleveland
5) Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Hornets – Denver
6) San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies – San Diego
7) Chicago Blackhawks @ Calgary Flames – Chicago
8) Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants – San Francisco
9) San Jose Sharks @ Anaheim Ducks – San Jose
10) Deron Williams vs. Los Angeles Lakers win margin – L.A. Lakers win margin
Analysis
1) Skybet has Australia favored at 4:6 and Pakistan at 11:10, which is about 57% for Australia and 43% for Pakistan. Australia will be resting three important players in anticipation of The Ashes, a test match between England and Australia. These players rested in the 1st ODI and Pakistan won a very close match. In the 2nd ODI Australia won in an even closer match. This looks like it will be another incredibly close match.
2) Newcastle United currently sit in the penultimate position at the bottom of the table, four points off of avoiding relegation this season. They have a couple of injury doubts with Steven Taylor, Joey Barton, and Jose Enrique who will be late decisions to the squad. Their absence would be a detriment to the defense and midfield for Newcastle United. Portsmouth also face a decision of whether to play David Nugent and Younes Kaboul, which could take away some of their attacking punch. Portsmouth are 6 points clear of relegationa nd relatively safe. Their away record is 2-7-7 (W-D-L) but they have been playing much better since Paul Hart took over as coach. Newcastle United are 4-6-6 at home and have also seen a boost with a new coach, Aaron Shearer. This could easily go Newcastle’s way with their being motivated to clear themselves of relegation, but I will not pick the tough form Paul Hart has installed in Portsmouth to lose here.
3) Joel Pineiro and Jair Jurrjens are the pitchers tonight for the St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves, respectively. Pineiro has had an average start to his recording a 4.12 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP which are not too far off from his numbers last season. Jurrjens has had a terrific start to the season with an ERA of 1.42 and a WHIP of 1.22. Last season he finished with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP so he is due to have a poor game, but not too poor, and not today I feel. Both teams are batting around their season averages recently with the Cardinals batting .278 and slugging .433 while the Braves are batting .252 and slugging .417 in their last three games. The Cardinals have not seen Jurrjens much before, though in one game last season Jurrjens pitched 7 innings, giving up 3 earned runs, walking 3 batters, and allowing 7 hits. Historically the Braves have done well against Pineiro, who recorded an 8.00 ERA and 1.78 WHIP against the Braves last season. The Braves’ current lineup have a combined career batting average of .304 and slugging average of .574. Overall the Cardinals have stronger relief pitching with a combined WHIP of 1.33 this season compared to a WHIP of 1.68 for the Braves. They have given up 11 home runs, however, while the Braves’ bullpen have only conceded 2. As long as Jurrjens does not get bombarded by the Cardinals today and the Braves can take a lead with the starting pitchers on the mound I think they will win this game at home.
6) Jason Hammel is scheduled to pitch for the Colorado Rockies after throwing for their bullpen in his first three games. He is reported to be limited to 70 pitches which would bring in a sub-par Rockies bullpen around the 5th or 6th inning, assuming he can keep his WHIP below 1.50. Chris Young is pitching for the Padres and he has had a fine start to the season with an ERA of 3.42 and a WHIP of 1.18 so far this season. The Rockies have a career batting average of .228 and a slugging average of .378 against Young so they’ll need a solid outing from Hammel to have a chance in this game. Fortunately, the Padres have struggled in their past three games with a batting average of .192 and a slugging average of .364. I expect them to improve those numbers in this game, but not by much. With a 1-4 record, 1.65 WHIP, 5.62 ERA, and only 3 saves on the season the Rockies’ bullpen cannot be expected to hold on to much of a lead and I think the Padres will be able to make up the difference in the final innings.
7) Dion Phaneuf was injured in Game 5 of this series which the Blackhawks won 5-1. That will hurt Calgary as he was one of their top defenders on the ice. Chicago has gone 7-2-0 against the Flames this season and in the playoffs so they have shown already they are capable of winning in Calgary. Mikka Kiprusoff has also been struggling in net for Calgary. He was pulled mid-way through the second period in Game 5 and has a .903 SV% for the series while allowing 16 goals. His backup, Curtis McElhinney did not have a great season, allowing over 3 goals per game and recording a .889 SV%. In the 30-plus minutes he was in during Game 5 he allowed 1 goal and turned away 9 shots. One can only imagine how he would fare against an aggressive Blackhawks attack. Chicago may be at a disadvantage on the road but they have the skill to overcome that and I see them closing out this series tonight unless Kiprusoff can put up the walls 35 to 40 times.
10) Deron Williams has averaged 10.74 assists in all 72 games he’s played this season and in the playoffs. He has averaged 12.0 assists in the 7 games he’s played against the Lakers this year. The Lakers have won by 13, 13, 13, and 10 points in L.A. and are coming off a 14 point win in Utah. Since 7 games is not a very large sample size I used Williams’ overall season average and a discrete Poisson distribution to estimate his chances in this prop. You can see the statistics here. Williams has had 14 or fewer assists in just over 90% of his games this year and can be expected to have 11 or 12 assists. I see Kobe asserting himself early in this game and the Lakers finishing the series on a high night with a 15 point win.
And So It Goes....
Monday, April 27, 2009
Deron Williams Assists Vs. L.A. Lakers Margin Of Victory
Below is a series of graphs, which you may click on to get a closer view, which show the probabilities of Deron Williams getting a certain number of assists. The first graph shows the number of games this season, including the playoffs, in which Williams recorded 'N' number of assists. The second graph shows the probability of Williams recording a certain number of assists and the third graph shows the percentage of games played Williams is expected to record 'N' assists or fewer. These graphs were made using a discrete Poisson distribution and Williams' average number of assists per game over 72 games played.
Williams had 7 of 72 games this year with 15 or more assists, and just over 80% of his games he can be expected to record 13 or fewer assists. Unless the Jazz keep this game close and lose by 10 or less Williams has a poor shot at winning this prop.
Williams had 7 of 72 games this year with 15 or more assists, and just over 80% of his games he can be expected to record 13 or fewer assists. Unless the Jazz keep this game close and lose by 10 or less Williams has a poor shot at winning this prop.
Sunday, April 26, 2009
April 26th, 2009 Picks
Arrr, 12-2-0 in my picks yesterday. I had a 6W streak built up but the Broncos’ selection of Knowshon Moreno destroyed that streak and spurred me on to keep picking. I then selected 9 in a row while skipping two others that turned out well in my blog. The final pick I was nearly certain the Bengals would take an offensive linesman with Robinskie and Nicks being off the board, but their selection of Rey Maualuga, who is listed as high as 260 pounds on a number of sites, but cut weight down to 249 for official purposes of the draft, ended that one as well. So on to the picks!
1) Philadelphia Phillies @ Florida Marlins – Philadelphia
2) Boston Celtics @ Chicago Bulls – Boston
3) Jerry Kelly or Steve Marino vs. Rest Of Field – Kelly or Marino win the tournament
4) Washington Capitals @ New York Rangers – Washington
5) Clint Bowyer vs. Matt Kenseth – Kenseth has a better final position
6) Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals – St. Louis
7) Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
8) Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers – Orlando
9) New Jersey Devils @ Carolina Hurricanes – Carolina
10) Derek Jeter vs. Kevin Youkilis – Youkilis hits, runs, and RBIs
11) New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox – Boston
Analysis
1) Philadelphia will be starting the elder Jamie Moyer against 25-year old minor leaguer Graham Taylor. Moyer was great last season with a 2.81 ERA and 0.97 WHIP against the Marlins, but so far this season he has recorded a 6.35 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. The Phillies have also been having difficulty htiting the ball lately with a .169 batting average and .309 slugging average in their last three games. It would be surprising to see those batting numbers go anywhere but up after this game, facing Taylor and the Marlins’ bullpen. Florida has not been spectacular in their last three games, batting .257 and slugging .419 and unless Moyer is feeling his age more than he did last year it does not look good for them to increase those numbers. I think Moyer will have a solid game as he did in his first start this season. As long as the game is close the Phillies have shown their superior relief pitching can lead them to wins against the Marlins.
3) At 10-under par Steve Marino leads the rest of the field by oen stroke, and Jerry Kelly leads by 4 strokes at 13-under. The lowest score carded in the first three rounds has been a 6-under par 66. So players currently six strokes back are realistically the only players with even the most remote of chances of catching the leaders. If someone like Charlie Wi or Rory Sabbatini can hit 3-under par for the final round and Marino and Kelly each card their worst round at over par they might end up losing to someone from the rest of the field. It’s not as unlikely as it seems at first glance, but there’s nothing suggesting that it will happen based on the first three rounds, so the best pick would be to pick the current leaders.
6) The Cubs are starting Rich Harden who currently has a 1.27 WHIP and 4.20 ERA. The current Cardinals’ lineup has only had 22 at bats against Harden, but have only managed three hits while being walked three times and struck out five times. Harden is probably due to pitch a solid game but should be tested by a Cardinals team who is batting .366 and slugging .574 while scoring 24 runs in their last 3 games. I am thinking the Cardinals struggle early on and manage only 1 or 2 runs off of Harden. Todd Wellemeyer is starting for the St. Louis Cardinals. He has a 5.29 ERA and 1.94 WHIP thus far this season which are much worse than his numbers from last year. The Cubs have been cold with their bats lately and Wellemeyer is due to have a solid game as well. In 77 at bats against Wellemeyer the Cubs have only hit .286 and slugged .351. Provided both pitchers play well this should be a very close game with few runs. With the Cardinals’ bullpen having a combined WHIP of 1.24 and the Cubs’ bullpen with a combined WHIP of 1.45 and the Cardinals being at home I think they’ll pull out the win at the end.
7) The Seattle Mariners look to sweep the 3 game series with the Angels today. In the three games prior to facing the Angels the Mariners were batting .169 and slugging .303. After two games against them their three game batting average is up to .311 and slugging average at .462. I think those numbers will go back down a bit after today’s game. Jarrod Washburn for the Mariners faces off against Jered Weaver of the Angels for the second time this season. In the first game Washburn shut down the Angels and the Mariners won 11-3 in Seattle. Washburn has a 1.71 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in his first three starts of the season. Weaver has not done so bad himself with a 3.38 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in three starts. Historically the Angels have not been shut down against Washburn, batting .243 and slugging .388 in 276 at bats. Last season Washburn’s ERA against the Angels was 4.42 with a WHIP of 1.58. The Mariners have done very well against Weaver as well, with a career batting average of .312 and slugging average of .462. The Mariners’ bullpen has also done much better than the Angels’ this season. I think Weaver will put in at least 6 solid innings, and keep the bullpen out of the game, while Washburn will have a poor game overall so that the Angels will be the ones defending a lead. With their bats cracking, especially at the end of yesterday’s game, I think they’ll be able to keep that lead and win here, but this is far from a sure thing.
8) Basketball, and especially a 7 game series between two teams, can be one of the most tactical of all sports. The losing team, provided they are not completely overmatched, generally has the advantage after a loss. The winning coach may try to anticipate offensive and defensive changes to be made by the other team but is more likely to continue to emphasize what led to their victory in the game before. The losing coach can run new plays and change defensive strategy to bring the advantage back to their team. Here I think Orlando has the more talent and were on the losing side. Even though they are on the road they also have Hedo Turkoglu approaching full health which is a large factor in their ability to close out teams in the fourth quarter. I think Orlando can make the necessary adjustments to win. Dwight Howard is also young enough that he can put forth an all-star effort night in and night out.
10) A quick look at each players’ numbers will show that Youkilis has been hitting more, scoring more runs, and batting in more runs. Though Jeter is more consistent when it comes to getting at least one hit, run, or RBI Youkilis has a greater likelihood to get more of these in any single game. Masterson and Pettite both had poor games against the opposition last year with Masterson recording a WHIP of 1.93 and Pettite a WHIP of 2.15 so I think each player will record a large number of hits, runs, and RBIs and that favors Youkilis. Pettite is also a left handed pitcher, which favors the right handed Youkilis, while Masterson and Jeter are both right handed. Here is a graph showing the probability distribution and cumulative probability functions for each players’ combined runs, hits, and RBIs based on this seasons’ stats. Youkilis averages about 1 more combined run, hit, and RBI this season (3.59 to 2.65) and I can see him winning this one 5 to 4 today. Keep in mind that each game is not statistically independent and so the functions are based on invalid assumptions, but they do not suggest anything improbable and so have some utility.
1) Philadelphia Phillies @ Florida Marlins – Philadelphia
2) Boston Celtics @ Chicago Bulls – Boston
3) Jerry Kelly or Steve Marino vs. Rest Of Field – Kelly or Marino win the tournament
4) Washington Capitals @ New York Rangers – Washington
5) Clint Bowyer vs. Matt Kenseth – Kenseth has a better final position
6) Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals – St. Louis
7) Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
8) Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers – Orlando
9) New Jersey Devils @ Carolina Hurricanes – Carolina
10) Derek Jeter vs. Kevin Youkilis – Youkilis hits, runs, and RBIs
11) New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox – Boston
Analysis
1) Philadelphia will be starting the elder Jamie Moyer against 25-year old minor leaguer Graham Taylor. Moyer was great last season with a 2.81 ERA and 0.97 WHIP against the Marlins, but so far this season he has recorded a 6.35 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. The Phillies have also been having difficulty htiting the ball lately with a .169 batting average and .309 slugging average in their last three games. It would be surprising to see those batting numbers go anywhere but up after this game, facing Taylor and the Marlins’ bullpen. Florida has not been spectacular in their last three games, batting .257 and slugging .419 and unless Moyer is feeling his age more than he did last year it does not look good for them to increase those numbers. I think Moyer will have a solid game as he did in his first start this season. As long as the game is close the Phillies have shown their superior relief pitching can lead them to wins against the Marlins.
3) At 10-under par Steve Marino leads the rest of the field by oen stroke, and Jerry Kelly leads by 4 strokes at 13-under. The lowest score carded in the first three rounds has been a 6-under par 66. So players currently six strokes back are realistically the only players with even the most remote of chances of catching the leaders. If someone like Charlie Wi or Rory Sabbatini can hit 3-under par for the final round and Marino and Kelly each card their worst round at over par they might end up losing to someone from the rest of the field. It’s not as unlikely as it seems at first glance, but there’s nothing suggesting that it will happen based on the first three rounds, so the best pick would be to pick the current leaders.
6) The Cubs are starting Rich Harden who currently has a 1.27 WHIP and 4.20 ERA. The current Cardinals’ lineup has only had 22 at bats against Harden, but have only managed three hits while being walked three times and struck out five times. Harden is probably due to pitch a solid game but should be tested by a Cardinals team who is batting .366 and slugging .574 while scoring 24 runs in their last 3 games. I am thinking the Cardinals struggle early on and manage only 1 or 2 runs off of Harden. Todd Wellemeyer is starting for the St. Louis Cardinals. He has a 5.29 ERA and 1.94 WHIP thus far this season which are much worse than his numbers from last year. The Cubs have been cold with their bats lately and Wellemeyer is due to have a solid game as well. In 77 at bats against Wellemeyer the Cubs have only hit .286 and slugged .351. Provided both pitchers play well this should be a very close game with few runs. With the Cardinals’ bullpen having a combined WHIP of 1.24 and the Cubs’ bullpen with a combined WHIP of 1.45 and the Cardinals being at home I think they’ll pull out the win at the end.
7) The Seattle Mariners look to sweep the 3 game series with the Angels today. In the three games prior to facing the Angels the Mariners were batting .169 and slugging .303. After two games against them their three game batting average is up to .311 and slugging average at .462. I think those numbers will go back down a bit after today’s game. Jarrod Washburn for the Mariners faces off against Jered Weaver of the Angels for the second time this season. In the first game Washburn shut down the Angels and the Mariners won 11-3 in Seattle. Washburn has a 1.71 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in his first three starts of the season. Weaver has not done so bad himself with a 3.38 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in three starts. Historically the Angels have not been shut down against Washburn, batting .243 and slugging .388 in 276 at bats. Last season Washburn’s ERA against the Angels was 4.42 with a WHIP of 1.58. The Mariners have done very well against Weaver as well, with a career batting average of .312 and slugging average of .462. The Mariners’ bullpen has also done much better than the Angels’ this season. I think Weaver will put in at least 6 solid innings, and keep the bullpen out of the game, while Washburn will have a poor game overall so that the Angels will be the ones defending a lead. With their bats cracking, especially at the end of yesterday’s game, I think they’ll be able to keep that lead and win here, but this is far from a sure thing.
8) Basketball, and especially a 7 game series between two teams, can be one of the most tactical of all sports. The losing team, provided they are not completely overmatched, generally has the advantage after a loss. The winning coach may try to anticipate offensive and defensive changes to be made by the other team but is more likely to continue to emphasize what led to their victory in the game before. The losing coach can run new plays and change defensive strategy to bring the advantage back to their team. Here I think Orlando has the more talent and were on the losing side. Even though they are on the road they also have Hedo Turkoglu approaching full health which is a large factor in their ability to close out teams in the fourth quarter. I think Orlando can make the necessary adjustments to win. Dwight Howard is also young enough that he can put forth an all-star effort night in and night out.
10) A quick look at each players’ numbers will show that Youkilis has been hitting more, scoring more runs, and batting in more runs. Though Jeter is more consistent when it comes to getting at least one hit, run, or RBI Youkilis has a greater likelihood to get more of these in any single game. Masterson and Pettite both had poor games against the opposition last year with Masterson recording a WHIP of 1.93 and Pettite a WHIP of 2.15 so I think each player will record a large number of hits, runs, and RBIs and that favors Youkilis. Pettite is also a left handed pitcher, which favors the right handed Youkilis, while Masterson and Jeter are both right handed. Here is a graph showing the probability distribution and cumulative probability functions for each players’ combined runs, hits, and RBIs based on this seasons’ stats. Youkilis averages about 1 more combined run, hit, and RBI this season (3.59 to 2.65) and I can see him winning this one 5 to 4 today. Keep in mind that each game is not statistically independent and so the functions are based on invalid assumptions, but they do not suggest anything improbable and so have some utility.
Youkilis and Jeter Probabilities From This Season
Above are cumulative probability distribution functions and probability mass distribution functions for Kevin Youkilis' and Derek Jeter's combined runs, hits, and RBIs. The functions were computed using the data available from the 17 games they have played already this season. Click on the image to see a closer view. Essentially Youkilis has recorded more hits, runs, and RBIs is a larger proportion of his games, but if each player records a lower number, such as 2 or fewer, then Jeter has a greater probability of recording the higher number. With Masterson and Pettite recording WHIPS over 1.90 last season against the opposition and the bats hitting heavy lately for both teams the high end numbers favoring Youkilis are more likely.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
April 25th, 2009 Picks
Conservative play today paid off as I avoided all 8 losing picks and went 1-0-0 with the San Francisco Giants. Tim Lincecum pitched terrific, giving up 5 hits and 1 earned run while striking out 12 batters and walking only 1. Davis was not as fortunate as he had been last Saturday giving up 9 hits and 5 earned runs in his six innings pitched. Renteria hit a solo home run in his first at bat to put the Giants up 1-0. Neither team was able to score until Beinge Molina lead off home run put the Giants up 2-0 in the 4th inning. Lincecum gave up an RBI single to Davis in between striking out three batters in the bottom of the 5th but it was the last hit the Diamondbacks would get off of him.
In the 7th inning Lincecum struck out swinging at a wild pitch that allowed him to reach first base. Lewis singled and a sacrifice by Renteria advanced runners to second and third. Davis was relieved at that point by Gutierrez but he gave up a 2 run RBI double to Molina, the second batter he faced. In the 9th inning Affeldt came in to close out the Diamondbacks and give Lincecum his first win of the season. So on to the NFL Draft and a new day of picks.
1) #2 Draft Pick: From the Big 12 vs. Any Other Conference – Big 12
2) #4 Draft Pick: Quarterback vs. Any Other Position – Any other position
3) #6 Draft Pick: From the SEC vs. Any Other Conference – SEC
4) #8 Draft Pick: Listed at 240 lbs. or less vs. Listed at over 240 lbs. – Over 240 lbs.
5) #10 Draft Pick: Wide Receiver vs. Any Other Position – Wide Receiver
6) #12 Draft Pick: Defensive Line or Linebacker vs. Any Other Position – DL or LB
7) #14 Draft Pick: Offensive Player vs. Defensive Player – Defensive player
8) #16 Draft Pick: From the Big 10 or SEC vs. Any Other Conference – Any other conference
9) #18 Draft Pick: Offensive Player vs. Defensive Player – Defensive Player
10) #20 Draft Pick: Listed at 240 lbs. or less vs. Listed at over 240 lbs. – Over 240 lbs.
11) #22 Draft Pick: Offensive Player vs. Defensive Player – Offensive Player
12) #24 Draft Pick: Offensive Player vs. Defensive Player – Defensive Player
13) #26 Draft Pick: SEC, Big 10, or PAC-10 vs. Any other conference – SEC, Big 10, PAC-10
14) #28 Draft Pick: Offensive Player vs. Defensive Player – Offensive Player
15) #30 Draft Pick: Listed at 240 lbs. or less vs. Listed at over 240 lbs. – 240 lbs. or less
16) #32 Draft Pick: ACC, Big East, or PAC-10 vs. Any Other Conference – Any other conference
17) #35 Draft Pick: Offensive Player vs. Defensive Player – Defensive player
18) #38 Draft Pick: Listed at 250 lbs. or Less vs. Over 250 lbs. – Over 250 lbs.
Analysis
1-5) Click here for a list 256 mock drafts. These die-hard fans have done most of the work for us already. I’ll post some conditional lists for who a team might pick if player A and player B are gone but player C is available a bit later on.
1) Jason Smith is from Baylor and is the odds on favorite to be selected here. Eugene Monroe from Virginia is his main competition. There are rumors about Monroe having problems with his knees but he is widely regarded as the more NFL ready prospect while Smith is more of a project. Do the Rams go for the ‘higher potential’ pick or the safer pick? Here is a good article from the St. Louis Post Dispatch about which player the various parts of the Rams organization favor.
2) Recent, and I mean very recent as in before yesterday nobody was talking about this, rumors have Mark Sanchez being selected by the Seahawks. The reasoning is that Sanchez could be the next Peyton Manning so a team who will be looking for a QB in a 2-3 years might rue the day they passed up on him. Hasselback has another two years on his contract and Seneca Wallace has done well as backup QB when Hasselback has been injured. So do you think the Seahawks will take the chance that Sanchez turns out to be the all-pro quarterback of the future, or select any other position, most likely an offensive lineman? Here is a link to the Seattle Post-Intelligencer. They appear to like Aaron Curry there and see Sanchez’s potential contract as a problem for the Seahawks in light of Stafford’s recent deal with the Lions. An argument can still be made for the potential reward of taking Mark Sanchez, who has only one year of college starting experience (remember Alex Smith?).
3) Andre Smith from Alabama is a favorite pick here. Tyson Jackson and Peria Jerry, both defensive linesmen, are the only other SEC players projected to possibly go this high. If Eugene Monroe is still available here the Bengals are likely to select the ACC offensive lineman. The staff at the Cincinnati Enquirer like Andre Smith with Monroe and Jason Smith being selected already. The other options are discussed here.
4) Eugene Monroe, Andre Smith, B.J. Raji, Brian Orakpoe, there are a number of linesman over 240 pounds who the Jaguars would like to get but who may not be available with the 8th pick. Watch out for trades involving teams, like the Jets, who may want to grab Sanchez at this spot if he’s available. If Raji, Monroe, and Smith are gone then it is likely an offensive position player will be selected who will be 240 pounds or less. Here’s a link to Jaguars coverage from the Florida Times-Union. And a good breakdown of the options available to the Jaguars. Trading down to allow another team to take Sanchez seems to be a popular theme.
UPDATE: With Raji and Monroe both still available a pick over Crabtree, and over 240 pounds is pretty darn likely here, but with Crabtree still available it’s tough to say for sure.
5) If reciever Michael Crabtree is available here the Niners may take one of them. They may even take Jeremy Maclin (WR) if he’s available. Otherwise they will probably be taking a defensive linesman and a non-WR pick seems most likely here. Here is a link to 49ers coverage from the San Francisco Chronicle. A bit of insight on the Niners’ draft strategy: take the best player available. And some more in-depth analysis from the staff.
UPDATE: Crabtree is going to be available after Green Bay selects Raji. The Packers have plenty of receivers already.
6) Most mock drafters have the Broncos taking someone like B.J. Raji or Everette Brown or Roger Ayers. Here’s a link to the Denver Post. Analysis from their staff indicates they’ll be taking a defensive linseman with their pick.
7) Malcolm Jenkins, at free safety, is a popular pick here. Here’s a link to the Louisiana Times-Picayune. They are hoping Jenkins is still available at #14 also.
8) Here’s a link to the San Diego Union-Tribue. Most mock drafts have the Chargers selecting either of running backs ‘Beanie’ Wells or Knowshon Moreno. Denver already has a huge number of running backs who were injured last year, but running back is not a need for them this year.
9) With Knowshon Moreno being a surprise pick by the Broncos at #12 a defensive player here seems almost assured.
10) A big offensive tackle sure would be a nice pick to complement Stafford.
11) Here’s a link to the Minnesota Star-Tribune. Harvin at wide-receiver is a staff favorite.
12) The Falcons traded during the off-season for Tony Gonzalez at tight end. Now they need to shore up their defense, and they know it. Vontae Davis or Evander Hood
13) Not surprising as we approach the lower end of the draft order the picks become a little more murky. Here’s a link to the Baltimore Sun. They may trade this pick which could make things even more murky, or make this pick a lock.
UPDATE: New England traded down for this pick and Darius Butler is a favorite.
14) Here’s a link to the Buffalo News. A tightend like Brandon Pettigrew, or even an offensive tackle would be good picks for the Bills.
UPDATE: Pettigrew is gone for the Bills, so they may settle for an offensive player in one of the later rounds. Phil Loadholt on offense is more likely to be the pick with Everette Brown on defensive also being likely.
15) Tennessee may go for a secondary player here, or someone like Clay Matthews or a big defensive lineman. I am leaning towards a lighter defensive back.
16) Here’s a link to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. They’re staff see the Steelers looking for a defensive lineman. If available, Evander Hood from Missouri would be a good pick. If Hood is gone then an offensive linesman from the PAC-10 would be their top choice.
18) The Cincinnati Bengals pick here and would like a big offensive linesman like Eric Wood. If he’s gone then a receiver would be the pick.
UPDATE: The Patriots took Wood. Bengals should take Britton or Beatty with Nicks and Robinskie gone.
In the 7th inning Lincecum struck out swinging at a wild pitch that allowed him to reach first base. Lewis singled and a sacrifice by Renteria advanced runners to second and third. Davis was relieved at that point by Gutierrez but he gave up a 2 run RBI double to Molina, the second batter he faced. In the 9th inning Affeldt came in to close out the Diamondbacks and give Lincecum his first win of the season. So on to the NFL Draft and a new day of picks.
1) #2 Draft Pick: From the Big 12 vs. Any Other Conference – Big 12
2) #4 Draft Pick: Quarterback vs. Any Other Position – Any other position
3) #6 Draft Pick: From the SEC vs. Any Other Conference – SEC
4) #8 Draft Pick: Listed at 240 lbs. or less vs. Listed at over 240 lbs. – Over 240 lbs.
5) #10 Draft Pick: Wide Receiver vs. Any Other Position – Wide Receiver
6) #12 Draft Pick: Defensive Line or Linebacker vs. Any Other Position – DL or LB
7) #14 Draft Pick: Offensive Player vs. Defensive Player – Defensive player
8) #16 Draft Pick: From the Big 10 or SEC vs. Any Other Conference – Any other conference
9) #18 Draft Pick: Offensive Player vs. Defensive Player – Defensive Player
10) #20 Draft Pick: Listed at 240 lbs. or less vs. Listed at over 240 lbs. – Over 240 lbs.
11) #22 Draft Pick: Offensive Player vs. Defensive Player – Offensive Player
12) #24 Draft Pick: Offensive Player vs. Defensive Player – Defensive Player
13) #26 Draft Pick: SEC, Big 10, or PAC-10 vs. Any other conference – SEC, Big 10, PAC-10
14) #28 Draft Pick: Offensive Player vs. Defensive Player – Offensive Player
15) #30 Draft Pick: Listed at 240 lbs. or less vs. Listed at over 240 lbs. – 240 lbs. or less
16) #32 Draft Pick: ACC, Big East, or PAC-10 vs. Any Other Conference – Any other conference
17) #35 Draft Pick: Offensive Player vs. Defensive Player – Defensive player
18) #38 Draft Pick: Listed at 250 lbs. or Less vs. Over 250 lbs. – Over 250 lbs.
Analysis
1-5) Click here for a list 256 mock drafts. These die-hard fans have done most of the work for us already. I’ll post some conditional lists for who a team might pick if player A and player B are gone but player C is available a bit later on.
1) Jason Smith is from Baylor and is the odds on favorite to be selected here. Eugene Monroe from Virginia is his main competition. There are rumors about Monroe having problems with his knees but he is widely regarded as the more NFL ready prospect while Smith is more of a project. Do the Rams go for the ‘higher potential’ pick or the safer pick? Here is a good article from the St. Louis Post Dispatch about which player the various parts of the Rams organization favor.
2) Recent, and I mean very recent as in before yesterday nobody was talking about this, rumors have Mark Sanchez being selected by the Seahawks. The reasoning is that Sanchez could be the next Peyton Manning so a team who will be looking for a QB in a 2-3 years might rue the day they passed up on him. Hasselback has another two years on his contract and Seneca Wallace has done well as backup QB when Hasselback has been injured. So do you think the Seahawks will take the chance that Sanchez turns out to be the all-pro quarterback of the future, or select any other position, most likely an offensive lineman? Here is a link to the Seattle Post-Intelligencer. They appear to like Aaron Curry there and see Sanchez’s potential contract as a problem for the Seahawks in light of Stafford’s recent deal with the Lions. An argument can still be made for the potential reward of taking Mark Sanchez, who has only one year of college starting experience (remember Alex Smith?).
3) Andre Smith from Alabama is a favorite pick here. Tyson Jackson and Peria Jerry, both defensive linesmen, are the only other SEC players projected to possibly go this high. If Eugene Monroe is still available here the Bengals are likely to select the ACC offensive lineman. The staff at the Cincinnati Enquirer like Andre Smith with Monroe and Jason Smith being selected already. The other options are discussed here.
4) Eugene Monroe, Andre Smith, B.J. Raji, Brian Orakpoe, there are a number of linesman over 240 pounds who the Jaguars would like to get but who may not be available with the 8th pick. Watch out for trades involving teams, like the Jets, who may want to grab Sanchez at this spot if he’s available. If Raji, Monroe, and Smith are gone then it is likely an offensive position player will be selected who will be 240 pounds or less. Here’s a link to Jaguars coverage from the Florida Times-Union. And a good breakdown of the options available to the Jaguars. Trading down to allow another team to take Sanchez seems to be a popular theme.
UPDATE: With Raji and Monroe both still available a pick over Crabtree, and over 240 pounds is pretty darn likely here, but with Crabtree still available it’s tough to say for sure.
5) If reciever Michael Crabtree is available here the Niners may take one of them. They may even take Jeremy Maclin (WR) if he’s available. Otherwise they will probably be taking a defensive linesman and a non-WR pick seems most likely here. Here is a link to 49ers coverage from the San Francisco Chronicle. A bit of insight on the Niners’ draft strategy: take the best player available. And some more in-depth analysis from the staff.
UPDATE: Crabtree is going to be available after Green Bay selects Raji. The Packers have plenty of receivers already.
6) Most mock drafters have the Broncos taking someone like B.J. Raji or Everette Brown or Roger Ayers. Here’s a link to the Denver Post. Analysis from their staff indicates they’ll be taking a defensive linseman with their pick.
7) Malcolm Jenkins, at free safety, is a popular pick here. Here’s a link to the Louisiana Times-Picayune. They are hoping Jenkins is still available at #14 also.
8) Here’s a link to the San Diego Union-Tribue. Most mock drafts have the Chargers selecting either of running backs ‘Beanie’ Wells or Knowshon Moreno. Denver already has a huge number of running backs who were injured last year, but running back is not a need for them this year.
9) With Knowshon Moreno being a surprise pick by the Broncos at #12 a defensive player here seems almost assured.
10) A big offensive tackle sure would be a nice pick to complement Stafford.
11) Here’s a link to the Minnesota Star-Tribune. Harvin at wide-receiver is a staff favorite.
12) The Falcons traded during the off-season for Tony Gonzalez at tight end. Now they need to shore up their defense, and they know it. Vontae Davis or Evander Hood
13) Not surprising as we approach the lower end of the draft order the picks become a little more murky. Here’s a link to the Baltimore Sun. They may trade this pick which could make things even more murky, or make this pick a lock.
UPDATE: New England traded down for this pick and Darius Butler is a favorite.
14) Here’s a link to the Buffalo News. A tightend like Brandon Pettigrew, or even an offensive tackle would be good picks for the Bills.
UPDATE: Pettigrew is gone for the Bills, so they may settle for an offensive player in one of the later rounds. Phil Loadholt on offense is more likely to be the pick with Everette Brown on defensive also being likely.
15) Tennessee may go for a secondary player here, or someone like Clay Matthews or a big defensive lineman. I am leaning towards a lighter defensive back.
16) Here’s a link to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. They’re staff see the Steelers looking for a defensive lineman. If available, Evander Hood from Missouri would be a good pick. If Hood is gone then an offensive linesman from the PAC-10 would be their top choice.
18) The Cincinnati Bengals pick here and would like a big offensive linesman like Eric Wood. If he’s gone then a receiver would be the pick.
UPDATE: The Patriots took Wood. Bengals should take Britton or Beatty with Nicks and Robinskie gone.
Friday, April 24, 2009
April 24th, 2009 Picks
Ahh a great day as the Utah Jazz won their first and probably only playoff game this year! My picks went 2-1-0 yesterday as I finished with two wins. My first pick was Steve Marino to card a lower front 9 score. It was all square through four holes as both he and Rich Beem were at one over par. On the fifth hole Beem hit a terrific shot from just outside a fairway bunker to give himself a two foot putt for birdie and a one stroke lead. On the seventh and eighth holes Marino found himself hitting into the sand on every non-chip shot. He was fortunate to come out of the two with a bogey and a birdie to remain one stroke behind Beem. On the final hole, a par-3, Beem missed the green with his tee shot and Marino left himself with an 11 foot putt for birdie. He missed the putt, but Beem chipped to 25 feet away. Marino made par and Beem sank his longest putt of the round to save par as well and stay one stroke ahead of Marino, finishing with a 35 to Marino’s 36.
My second pick was Kenny Perry to card a lower front 9 score. Mike Weir took an early lead with a birdie on #2, but Perry got a stroke up by birdying the 7th and 8th holes. Perry hit three consecutive birdies to start the back 9 and Weir hit birdie on the 11th and 13th to stay two strokes behind. From there Perry finished weakly with two bogeys and the rest pars to finish with a 69 for the round. It was nothing compared to Weir’s meltdown, however, as he hit a double bogey on #15, then two straight bogeys, followed by a triple bogey on the final hole, which included two penalty strokes. Weir finished with a 76, seven strokes behind Perry.
My final pick was the Toronto Blue Jays. Scott Richmond had a great outing, allowing only two runs on 6 hits for the Rangers. He also struck out 8 batters while walking only two. Kevin Millwood didn’t do so bad himself with the Blue Jays only getting 5 hits off of him in 7 innings. Unfortunately three of those hits were home runs that led to four runs. Jason Jennings gave up another run to Toronto in the 8th inning and Scott Downs was able to retire the Rangers to complete the save and the win for Richmond. Toronto won at home 5 to 2. So on to the picks.
1) Andres Romero vs. Scott Verplank – Romero cards a lower front 9 score
2) Bangalore Royal Challengers vs. Kings XI Punjabi – Kings XI Punjabi
3) Rory Sabbatini vs. Charles Howell III – Howell III cards a lower 2nd round score
4) De Graafschap @ Sparta Rotterdam – De Graafschap win or draw
5) LeBron James vs. Will Bynum – Bynum pts.
6) NY Rangers points leader vs. Alex Ovechkin – NY Rangers ponts leader pts.
7) New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox – Boston
8) Dwight Howard vs. Andre Iguodala – Iguodala pts.
9) San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks – San Francisco
10) Portland Trail Blazers @ Houston Rockets – 188 points or more
11) Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
12) Antonio Escalante vs. Gary Stark Jr. – 10 rounds or more
Analysis
1) Andres Romero carded 2 under par in the first round to 1 under par for Verplank. Romero won this tournament last year and this is the first year Verplank has played a Tour event at TPC Louisiana. So far in 2009 Verplank has a scoring average of 70.13 while Romero has a scoring average of 71.92, which is a hugely substantial difference. Romero has made more money on the tour in the same number of events and sure enough he plays lights out some weekends and terribly on others. Yesterday Verplank had trouble finding the fairways and avoiding the bunkers, and did well to save par on more than one hole. I think Verplank will play better and is the safer choice, honestly. Romero has more Tour experience on the course, however, and made longer putts on average in the first round.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Rory Sabbatini finished with a 70, two strokes behind Charles Howell III’s first round 68. Sabbatini hit into the water once to pick up a penalty stroke and hit into the sand three times so it seems he could not do much worse than 70. Howell III only hit into a bunker once in the first round, but looking at his shot selection he should be able to avoid most of the bunkers today. Sabbatini made two 15 to 20 foot putts, a 10 to 15 foot putt and two 5 to 10 foot putts while missing 12 putts over 5 feet and two putts under 1 putt under 5 feet. Howell III made one putt over 20 feet, one from 10 to 15 feet and three from 5 to 10 feet. He also missed 12 putts from over 5 feet and made all 13 of his putts from under 5 feet. Sabbatini may gain a stroke from avoiding the water but he will probably lose it back by not scoring an eagle in this round.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) There are a few injury concerns for Sparta Rotterdam for this match with Ruud Knol out and Donovan Sljingard facing a late fitness test on defense. Forwards Yuri Rose and Rydell Poepon will also be out for this match. The rest of Sparta Rotterdam’s roster has still outscored De Graafschap 24 to 21. De Graafschap have scored 6 goals in 15 away matches, 3 of them in one match, so they average around 0.25 away goals while conceding 2 per match. On loan Chelsea striker Ben Sahar give De Graafschap more of a scoring punch and they’ve scored nearly half of their goals in the 13 matches since acquiring him, though only one of those goals has been away. Both teams are struggling to avoid relegation with Sparta three points clear of relegation and De Graafschap needing 4 points to climb out of the zone. Today’s match represents one of the best chances either have of earning any points for the rest of the season so I think both will put forth a good effort but De Graafschap’s form will prove to be enough to secure a draw.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
7) Joba Chamberlain and Jon Lester are starting for the Yankees and Red Sox, respectively. Both have done well enough to start the season but should display better form as the season goes on. Lester has a 5.50 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP while Chamberlain has a 5.06 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP. The Sox have had difficulty with Chamberlain in the past, as a starter or a relief pitcher, with a .220 batting average and .320 slugging average. The Yankees have a career .276 batting average and .391 slugging average. Last season, however, it was Lester who had the lower ERA in more innings pitched. Lester also has a better than 4:1 SO:BB ratio while Chamberlain is at 2:1. Chamberlain is good for 80 to 100 pitches, so the Yankees may have to rely on their bullpen more. That is good news for the Sox as the Yankees bullpen have two losses to one loss for the Sox bullpen. In their last three games the Yankees are batting .311 and slugging .525 which is tremendous, but overshadowed by the Red Sox batting .351 and slugging .649 in their last three. An off day by either pitcher could hand the game to the other side, but with the Yankees bullpen having a combined WHIP of 1.50 to 1.13 for Boston and with Lester probable to pitch an inning more than Chamberlain I have to give the advantage to the Red Sox at Fenway.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
8) Since the beginning of March Iguodala has scored over 18 points in 20 games and 18 points or fewer in 5 games. During the same time period Howard has scored more than 18 points 12 times and 18 or fewer 12 times.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) Lincecum and Davis have faced off once this season, with each pitcher recording 8 scoreless innings and the Diamondbacks winning 2-0. As the NL Cy Young winner last year, Lincecum obviously had the lower ERA and WHIP of the two. So far this season Lincecum has recorded a 3.86 ERA and 1.53 WHIP compared to Davis’ 2.57 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Of the two Lincecum is more likely to pitch a stronger game assuming both pitchers regress towards their previous season’s numbers. The Giants have only batted .228 in their last 3 games with a slugging average of .315 while the Diamondbacks have batted .270 with a .470 slugging average. It will be up to Lincecum to hold off Arizona and hope the Giants can find some success against Davis who has walked 14 and struck out 22 Giants batters in 185 at bats while allowing .398 of batters to reach a base. Lincecum’s SO:BB ratio against Arizona is nearly 8:1 so he has a good chance of shutting down an Arizona team which has been relatively cracking recently. Whoever can keep their bullpen out of the game the longest increases their odds of winning. San Francisco’s has a 2 losses, 2 saves and a 1.44 WHIP while giving up 3 home runs and Arizona’s has 1 loss, 4 saves and a 1.60 WHIP while giving up 6 home runs.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
12) I know nothing about these fighters other than that they are 122 pounds in weight and have recorded multiple knockouts in their careers. A well placed punch, even from these bantams can knock someone out. Thanks to phillkoo for finding this site. Click here for Escalante’s stats and click here for Stark’s In 43 fights combined each fighter has been knocked out once. I am thinking it’s because they are skilled at avoiding those knockout punches, so I can see this fight going the distance.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
My second pick was Kenny Perry to card a lower front 9 score. Mike Weir took an early lead with a birdie on #2, but Perry got a stroke up by birdying the 7th and 8th holes. Perry hit three consecutive birdies to start the back 9 and Weir hit birdie on the 11th and 13th to stay two strokes behind. From there Perry finished weakly with two bogeys and the rest pars to finish with a 69 for the round. It was nothing compared to Weir’s meltdown, however, as he hit a double bogey on #15, then two straight bogeys, followed by a triple bogey on the final hole, which included two penalty strokes. Weir finished with a 76, seven strokes behind Perry.
My final pick was the Toronto Blue Jays. Scott Richmond had a great outing, allowing only two runs on 6 hits for the Rangers. He also struck out 8 batters while walking only two. Kevin Millwood didn’t do so bad himself with the Blue Jays only getting 5 hits off of him in 7 innings. Unfortunately three of those hits were home runs that led to four runs. Jason Jennings gave up another run to Toronto in the 8th inning and Scott Downs was able to retire the Rangers to complete the save and the win for Richmond. Toronto won at home 5 to 2. So on to the picks.
1) Andres Romero vs. Scott Verplank – Romero cards a lower front 9 score
2) Bangalore Royal Challengers vs. Kings XI Punjabi – Kings XI Punjabi
3) Rory Sabbatini vs. Charles Howell III – Howell III cards a lower 2nd round score
4) De Graafschap @ Sparta Rotterdam – De Graafschap win or draw
5) LeBron James vs. Will Bynum – Bynum pts.
6) NY Rangers points leader vs. Alex Ovechkin – NY Rangers ponts leader pts.
7) New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox – Boston
8) Dwight Howard vs. Andre Iguodala – Iguodala pts.
9) San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks – San Francisco
10) Portland Trail Blazers @ Houston Rockets – 188 points or more
11) Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
12) Antonio Escalante vs. Gary Stark Jr. – 10 rounds or more
Analysis
1) Andres Romero carded 2 under par in the first round to 1 under par for Verplank. Romero won this tournament last year and this is the first year Verplank has played a Tour event at TPC Louisiana. So far in 2009 Verplank has a scoring average of 70.13 while Romero has a scoring average of 71.92, which is a hugely substantial difference. Romero has made more money on the tour in the same number of events and sure enough he plays lights out some weekends and terribly on others. Yesterday Verplank had trouble finding the fairways and avoiding the bunkers, and did well to save par on more than one hole. I think Verplank will play better and is the safer choice, honestly. Romero has more Tour experience on the course, however, and made longer putts on average in the first round.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Rory Sabbatini finished with a 70, two strokes behind Charles Howell III’s first round 68. Sabbatini hit into the water once to pick up a penalty stroke and hit into the sand three times so it seems he could not do much worse than 70. Howell III only hit into a bunker once in the first round, but looking at his shot selection he should be able to avoid most of the bunkers today. Sabbatini made two 15 to 20 foot putts, a 10 to 15 foot putt and two 5 to 10 foot putts while missing 12 putts over 5 feet and two putts under 1 putt under 5 feet. Howell III made one putt over 20 feet, one from 10 to 15 feet and three from 5 to 10 feet. He also missed 12 putts from over 5 feet and made all 13 of his putts from under 5 feet. Sabbatini may gain a stroke from avoiding the water but he will probably lose it back by not scoring an eagle in this round.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) There are a few injury concerns for Sparta Rotterdam for this match with Ruud Knol out and Donovan Sljingard facing a late fitness test on defense. Forwards Yuri Rose and Rydell Poepon will also be out for this match. The rest of Sparta Rotterdam’s roster has still outscored De Graafschap 24 to 21. De Graafschap have scored 6 goals in 15 away matches, 3 of them in one match, so they average around 0.25 away goals while conceding 2 per match. On loan Chelsea striker Ben Sahar give De Graafschap more of a scoring punch and they’ve scored nearly half of their goals in the 13 matches since acquiring him, though only one of those goals has been away. Both teams are struggling to avoid relegation with Sparta three points clear of relegation and De Graafschap needing 4 points to climb out of the zone. Today’s match represents one of the best chances either have of earning any points for the rest of the season so I think both will put forth a good effort but De Graafschap’s form will prove to be enough to secure a draw.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
7) Joba Chamberlain and Jon Lester are starting for the Yankees and Red Sox, respectively. Both have done well enough to start the season but should display better form as the season goes on. Lester has a 5.50 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP while Chamberlain has a 5.06 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP. The Sox have had difficulty with Chamberlain in the past, as a starter or a relief pitcher, with a .220 batting average and .320 slugging average. The Yankees have a career .276 batting average and .391 slugging average. Last season, however, it was Lester who had the lower ERA in more innings pitched. Lester also has a better than 4:1 SO:BB ratio while Chamberlain is at 2:1. Chamberlain is good for 80 to 100 pitches, so the Yankees may have to rely on their bullpen more. That is good news for the Sox as the Yankees bullpen have two losses to one loss for the Sox bullpen. In their last three games the Yankees are batting .311 and slugging .525 which is tremendous, but overshadowed by the Red Sox batting .351 and slugging .649 in their last three. An off day by either pitcher could hand the game to the other side, but with the Yankees bullpen having a combined WHIP of 1.50 to 1.13 for Boston and with Lester probable to pitch an inning more than Chamberlain I have to give the advantage to the Red Sox at Fenway.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
8) Since the beginning of March Iguodala has scored over 18 points in 20 games and 18 points or fewer in 5 games. During the same time period Howard has scored more than 18 points 12 times and 18 or fewer 12 times.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) Lincecum and Davis have faced off once this season, with each pitcher recording 8 scoreless innings and the Diamondbacks winning 2-0. As the NL Cy Young winner last year, Lincecum obviously had the lower ERA and WHIP of the two. So far this season Lincecum has recorded a 3.86 ERA and 1.53 WHIP compared to Davis’ 2.57 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Of the two Lincecum is more likely to pitch a stronger game assuming both pitchers regress towards their previous season’s numbers. The Giants have only batted .228 in their last 3 games with a slugging average of .315 while the Diamondbacks have batted .270 with a .470 slugging average. It will be up to Lincecum to hold off Arizona and hope the Giants can find some success against Davis who has walked 14 and struck out 22 Giants batters in 185 at bats while allowing .398 of batters to reach a base. Lincecum’s SO:BB ratio against Arizona is nearly 8:1 so he has a good chance of shutting down an Arizona team which has been relatively cracking recently. Whoever can keep their bullpen out of the game the longest increases their odds of winning. San Francisco’s has a 2 losses, 2 saves and a 1.44 WHIP while giving up 3 home runs and Arizona’s has 1 loss, 4 saves and a 1.60 WHIP while giving up 6 home runs.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
12) I know nothing about these fighters other than that they are 122 pounds in weight and have recorded multiple knockouts in their careers. A well placed punch, even from these bantams can knock someone out. Thanks to phillkoo for finding this site. Click here for Escalante’s stats and click here for Stark’s In 43 fights combined each fighter has been knocked out once. I am thinking it’s because they are skilled at avoiding those knockout punches, so I can see this fight going the distance.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
Thursday, April 23, 2009
April 23rd, 2009 Picks
An ugly 1-3-0 day, and if I hadn’t gotten all 3 morning picks right I’m sure it would have been 0-4-0. My first pick was the PIttsburgh Pirates. Neither Maholm or Nolasco had spectacular outings with a 6.00 ERA for the former and a 7.50 ERA for the latter in 6 innings pitched each. Pittsburgh took an early 1-0 lead on an Adam LaRouche ground rule double in the 1st. McLouth batted in another run and a sacrifice fly by Andy LaRouche made it 3-0 after three. A Helms double RBI in the fourth got a run back for the Marlins and Nolasco himself hit a single RBI in the 5th to make it 3-2. Andy LaRouche got that run back in the next inning but the Marlins leveled things at 4-4 with RBI’s by Paulino and Ross. Morgan batted in a run at the top of the 6th, and crossed home on a throwing error by Paulino. The bullpens came in to play after that and another run by the Pirates made the final score 7-4. Grabow did a terrific job for the Pirates with a 3 K hold in the 8th.
My second pick of the day was the San Diego Padres. Barry Zito had a terrific outing for the Giants with 5 strikeouts, and zero earned runs in 7 innings. Chris Young also had a nice outing, giving up 2 hits and 0 runs in 7 innings. Howry relieved Zito but was pulled after two batters when Hairston advanced to third on a sacrifice fly. Affeldt caught Giles and Gonzalez looking to retire the inning with 2 strikeouts. The game went into extra innings tied 0-0 and in the bottom of the 10th Moreno gave up a single, and a ground rule double to Molina to earn the loss. The Padres kept Bell out for a potential save, but it never materialized and the Giants won 1-0.
My third pick was the Baltimore Orioles. This was one that was just a bad pick. The White Sox immediately went to work with Quentin, Getz, and Fields batting in three runs in the first two innings. A lead off home run by Thome in the 3rd made it 4-0 White Sox. Guthrie and Danks dueled for a few innings before Scott hit a solo home run to make it 4-1. Guthrie was relieved by Sarfate in the top of the 7th with one man on and Sarfate immediately yielded a two run shot by Fields to put it at 6-2. Danks did a great job retiring batters without throwing too many pitches and did not walk a single batter. In the end it was 8-2 Chicago.
My final pick was the Los Angeles Angels. It was a back and forth battle with Verlander and Saunders giving up hits and runs left and right. Verlander had a 12.40 ERA and 2.20 WHIP in 5 innings pitched while Saunders stood with a 9.00 ERA and 1.8 ERA after 5. It was tied up 4-4 after three innings and the Angels led 8-6 after 6 innings. Scot Shields came in for the Angels in the 7th and immediately gave up two singles and walked a batter to load the bases. He then walked in a run before being relieved by Arredondo. He did not fare well and four singles and an error later the Tigers were up 11-8. The Angels gave up another run in the 9th and a 2 RBI double with 2 outs by Rivera was too little, too late. Detroit won on the road 12-10. So on to the picks…..
1) Rich Beem vs. Steve Marino – Marino cards a lower front 9 score
2) Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians – Cleveland
3) Mike Weir vs. Kenny Perry – Perry cards a lower first round score
4) Sampdoria @ Inter Milan – Inter Milan wins by 1 goal, ties, or loses
5) Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners – Seattle
6) Penguins (v. Flyers) vs. Red Wings (v. Blue Jackets) – Red Wings win margin
7) Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays – Toronto
8) Boston Celtics @ Chicago Bulls – Chicago
9) New York Red Bulls @ Kansas City Wizards – Kansas City win
10) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros – Los Angeles
11) Los Angeles Lakers @ Utah Jazz – Utah
Analysis
1) To start off it might help to view each golfers stats in 2009. Click here for Rich Beem’s stats and click here for Steve Marino’s. In 2008 and 2009 Marino has entered 40 stroke play events, been cut 9 times and finished in the top 10 six times. Beem has entered 35 such events, been cut 14 times and finished in the top 10 twice. The Zurich Open has been played at TPC Louisiana in 2005 and 2007-present. In 2006 and prior to 2005 it was played at the English Turn Golf Club. At the current course Beem has carded four front 9 scores, at +1, +3, -1, and even par. Marino has carded four scores as well, -1, -2, +1, and even par. That makes Beem’s average and median scores just above par and Marino’s a stroke better at just below par. Marino has a worse sand save percentage than Beem and this course is filled with enormous bunkers. On the front 9, however, the bunkers are placed such that that only a poor hook or slice will place a player in the sand. This is in contrast to the back 9 where the bunkers are placed such that an aggressive player trying to give themselves a short approach shot to the green would be penalized. The front 9 should play well to a big driver like Marino and I like his chances to win the front 9. Click here for the group’s shot tracker and click on one of the colored boxes with the players photos inside to get a hole-by-hole view of the course to see what I mean about the placement of the bunkers.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Both starting pitchers have had a good start to their seasons. Gil Meche has a 2.25 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 20 innings of work and Anthony Reyes has a 5.73 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 11 innings. Reyes has had great success against the Royals posting a 2.25 ERA in 8 innings against them last season. The Indians’ batting order has a career batting average of .278 and slugging average of .432 against Meche, so Kansas City’s ace may not be enough for them here tonight. What does favor the Royals is the Indians’ relatively cold bats since their 22 run victory at the new Yankee Stadium. They’ve batted .198 with a .330 slugging average since that game, going 1-2. The Royals have been on the other side of that equation with a .310 batting average and .450 slugging average in their last 3 games. I can see Meche and Reyes each struggling a bit today in a cold early game and can see Cleveland getting back on track with their hitting.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Not much to go on here. Perry has played 8 rounds at TPC Louisiana and carded an average and median score of 71.5 ranging from a 69 to a 74. Weir has played two rounds, a 71 and a 75. You can see how Weir has performed this year compared to Kenny Perry. I think Perry wins with a 71 to a 73 for Weir today.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
5) Felix Hernandez and James Shields are starting for Seattle and Tampa Bay, respectively. Both had terrific seasons last year although Hernandez’ stats suffered a bit through injury. Historically the Mariners have performed better against Shields than the Rays against Hernandez. Last season Shields had a 4.05 ERA against the Mariners and a 1.35 WHIP, while Hernandez had a 1.13 ERA against the Rays and a 0.88 WHIP. The Rays’ lineup has a career batting average of .132 and slugging average of .176 against Hernandez. The Mariners’ lineup has a career batting average of .239 and slugging average of .403 against Shields. In their last 3 games the Rays are batting .243 while the Mariners are batting .219, though they are slugging .354 compared to .320 for the Rays. I think it should be a great pitchers duel, but if Hernandez’ ankle is bothering him at all the Rays will be able to take a lead. Unfortunately I don’t see their bullpen doing well to hold on to that lead.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
7) Kevin Millwood has had a great start to the season with a 1.17 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in three starts. Last season he had a 5.07 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP so it is likely he will be giving up some walks, hits, and runs soon enough. Scott Richmond is a minor league surprise who has done well enough in the majors. In 27 innings last season he had 20 strikeouts and walked two batters. This season his ERA is 3.48 and his WHIP is 1.35 in 101/3 innings. Texas has one of the best batting orders in the league, but have slumped a tiny bit recently. Toronto’s bats are hot and their bullpen has performed much better than Texas’. Texas will need another terrific 6 or 7 innings from Millwood to have a good chance here.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
10) Wandy Rodriguez is an all-star but Chad Billingsley is no slouch. Against Rodriguez the Dodgers have a career batting average of .298 and slugging average of .553. Against Billingsley the Astros have a career batting average of .214 and slugging average of .300. Both teams are hitting great recently and both pitchers are due to give up some runs but the Dodgers’ bullpen has performed a bit better this season with Broxton especially being nearly unhittable.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
11) The Utah Jazz were within three points with three minutes to go and the result was a roaring Staples Center, some clutch play by Kobe Bryant, and some brick wall physical defense by the Lakers to end up with a 10 point victory. Mehmet Okur will be missing again for the Utah Jazz and that’s a big injury since Okur can pull Gasol or Bynum out from the paint with his three point shooting and that opens things up down there offensively for the Jazz who rely quite a bit on open lanes to the basket leading to easy shots. As long as Kobe and Gasol lead the Lakers with a killer instinct they should win this game, but I wouldn’t be too surprised to see them come out a bit lackluster and fold if Utah applies the pressure early and throughout.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
My second pick of the day was the San Diego Padres. Barry Zito had a terrific outing for the Giants with 5 strikeouts, and zero earned runs in 7 innings. Chris Young also had a nice outing, giving up 2 hits and 0 runs in 7 innings. Howry relieved Zito but was pulled after two batters when Hairston advanced to third on a sacrifice fly. Affeldt caught Giles and Gonzalez looking to retire the inning with 2 strikeouts. The game went into extra innings tied 0-0 and in the bottom of the 10th Moreno gave up a single, and a ground rule double to Molina to earn the loss. The Padres kept Bell out for a potential save, but it never materialized and the Giants won 1-0.
My third pick was the Baltimore Orioles. This was one that was just a bad pick. The White Sox immediately went to work with Quentin, Getz, and Fields batting in three runs in the first two innings. A lead off home run by Thome in the 3rd made it 4-0 White Sox. Guthrie and Danks dueled for a few innings before Scott hit a solo home run to make it 4-1. Guthrie was relieved by Sarfate in the top of the 7th with one man on and Sarfate immediately yielded a two run shot by Fields to put it at 6-2. Danks did a great job retiring batters without throwing too many pitches and did not walk a single batter. In the end it was 8-2 Chicago.
My final pick was the Los Angeles Angels. It was a back and forth battle with Verlander and Saunders giving up hits and runs left and right. Verlander had a 12.40 ERA and 2.20 WHIP in 5 innings pitched while Saunders stood with a 9.00 ERA and 1.8 ERA after 5. It was tied up 4-4 after three innings and the Angels led 8-6 after 6 innings. Scot Shields came in for the Angels in the 7th and immediately gave up two singles and walked a batter to load the bases. He then walked in a run before being relieved by Arredondo. He did not fare well and four singles and an error later the Tigers were up 11-8. The Angels gave up another run in the 9th and a 2 RBI double with 2 outs by Rivera was too little, too late. Detroit won on the road 12-10. So on to the picks…..
1) Rich Beem vs. Steve Marino – Marino cards a lower front 9 score
2) Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians – Cleveland
3) Mike Weir vs. Kenny Perry – Perry cards a lower first round score
4) Sampdoria @ Inter Milan – Inter Milan wins by 1 goal, ties, or loses
5) Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners – Seattle
6) Penguins (v. Flyers) vs. Red Wings (v. Blue Jackets) – Red Wings win margin
7) Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays – Toronto
8) Boston Celtics @ Chicago Bulls – Chicago
9) New York Red Bulls @ Kansas City Wizards – Kansas City win
10) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros – Los Angeles
11) Los Angeles Lakers @ Utah Jazz – Utah
Analysis
1) To start off it might help to view each golfers stats in 2009. Click here for Rich Beem’s stats and click here for Steve Marino’s. In 2008 and 2009 Marino has entered 40 stroke play events, been cut 9 times and finished in the top 10 six times. Beem has entered 35 such events, been cut 14 times and finished in the top 10 twice. The Zurich Open has been played at TPC Louisiana in 2005 and 2007-present. In 2006 and prior to 2005 it was played at the English Turn Golf Club. At the current course Beem has carded four front 9 scores, at +1, +3, -1, and even par. Marino has carded four scores as well, -1, -2, +1, and even par. That makes Beem’s average and median scores just above par and Marino’s a stroke better at just below par. Marino has a worse sand save percentage than Beem and this course is filled with enormous bunkers. On the front 9, however, the bunkers are placed such that that only a poor hook or slice will place a player in the sand. This is in contrast to the back 9 where the bunkers are placed such that an aggressive player trying to give themselves a short approach shot to the green would be penalized. The front 9 should play well to a big driver like Marino and I like his chances to win the front 9. Click here for the group’s shot tracker and click on one of the colored boxes with the players photos inside to get a hole-by-hole view of the course to see what I mean about the placement of the bunkers.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Both starting pitchers have had a good start to their seasons. Gil Meche has a 2.25 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 20 innings of work and Anthony Reyes has a 5.73 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 11 innings. Reyes has had great success against the Royals posting a 2.25 ERA in 8 innings against them last season. The Indians’ batting order has a career batting average of .278 and slugging average of .432 against Meche, so Kansas City’s ace may not be enough for them here tonight. What does favor the Royals is the Indians’ relatively cold bats since their 22 run victory at the new Yankee Stadium. They’ve batted .198 with a .330 slugging average since that game, going 1-2. The Royals have been on the other side of that equation with a .310 batting average and .450 slugging average in their last 3 games. I can see Meche and Reyes each struggling a bit today in a cold early game and can see Cleveland getting back on track with their hitting.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Not much to go on here. Perry has played 8 rounds at TPC Louisiana and carded an average and median score of 71.5 ranging from a 69 to a 74. Weir has played two rounds, a 71 and a 75. You can see how Weir has performed this year compared to Kenny Perry. I think Perry wins with a 71 to a 73 for Weir today.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
5) Felix Hernandez and James Shields are starting for Seattle and Tampa Bay, respectively. Both had terrific seasons last year although Hernandez’ stats suffered a bit through injury. Historically the Mariners have performed better against Shields than the Rays against Hernandez. Last season Shields had a 4.05 ERA against the Mariners and a 1.35 WHIP, while Hernandez had a 1.13 ERA against the Rays and a 0.88 WHIP. The Rays’ lineup has a career batting average of .132 and slugging average of .176 against Hernandez. The Mariners’ lineup has a career batting average of .239 and slugging average of .403 against Shields. In their last 3 games the Rays are batting .243 while the Mariners are batting .219, though they are slugging .354 compared to .320 for the Rays. I think it should be a great pitchers duel, but if Hernandez’ ankle is bothering him at all the Rays will be able to take a lead. Unfortunately I don’t see their bullpen doing well to hold on to that lead.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
7) Kevin Millwood has had a great start to the season with a 1.17 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in three starts. Last season he had a 5.07 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP so it is likely he will be giving up some walks, hits, and runs soon enough. Scott Richmond is a minor league surprise who has done well enough in the majors. In 27 innings last season he had 20 strikeouts and walked two batters. This season his ERA is 3.48 and his WHIP is 1.35 in 101/3 innings. Texas has one of the best batting orders in the league, but have slumped a tiny bit recently. Toronto’s bats are hot and their bullpen has performed much better than Texas’. Texas will need another terrific 6 or 7 innings from Millwood to have a good chance here.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
10) Wandy Rodriguez is an all-star but Chad Billingsley is no slouch. Against Rodriguez the Dodgers have a career batting average of .298 and slugging average of .553. Against Billingsley the Astros have a career batting average of .214 and slugging average of .300. Both teams are hitting great recently and both pitchers are due to give up some runs but the Dodgers’ bullpen has performed a bit better this season with Broxton especially being nearly unhittable.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
11) The Utah Jazz were within three points with three minutes to go and the result was a roaring Staples Center, some clutch play by Kobe Bryant, and some brick wall physical defense by the Lakers to end up with a 10 point victory. Mehmet Okur will be missing again for the Utah Jazz and that’s a big injury since Okur can pull Gasol or Bynum out from the paint with his three point shooting and that opens things up down there offensively for the Jazz who rely quite a bit on open lanes to the basket leading to easy shots. As long as Kobe and Gasol lead the Lakers with a killer instinct they should win this game, but I wouldn’t be too surprised to see them come out a bit lackluster and fold if Utah applies the pressure early and throughout.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
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