April 25th, 2009 Picks

Conservative play today paid off as I avoided all 8 losing picks and went 1-0-0 with the San Francisco Giants. Tim Lincecum pitched terrific, giving up 5 hits and 1 earned run while striking out 12 batters and walking only 1. Davis was not as fortunate as he had been last Saturday giving up 9 hits and 5 earned runs in his six innings pitched. Renteria hit a solo home run in his first at bat to put the Giants up 1-0. Neither team was able to score until Beinge Molina lead off home run put the Giants up 2-0 in the 4^th inning. Lincecum gave up an RBI single to Davis in between striking out three batters in the bottom of the 5th but it was the last hit the Diamondbacks would get off of him.

In the 7^th inning Lincecum struck out swinging at a wild pitch that allowed him to reach first base. Lewis singled and a sacrifice by Renteria advanced runners to second and third. Davis was relieved at that point by Gutierrez but he gave up a 2 run RBI double to Molina, the second batter he faced. In the 9^th inning Affeldt came in to close out the Diamondbacks and give Lincecum his first win of the season. So on to the NFL Draft and a new day of picks.

1) #2 Draft Pick: From the Big 12 vs. Any Other Conference – Big 12
2) #4 Draft Pick: Quarterback vs. Any Other Position – Any other position
3) #6 Draft Pick: From the SEC vs. Any Other Conference – SEC
4) #8 Draft Pick: Listed at 240 lbs. or less vs. Listed at over 240 lbs. – Over 240 lbs.
5) #10 Draft Pick: Wide Receiver vs. Any Other Position – Wide Receiver
6) #12 Draft Pick: Defensive Line or Linebacker vs. Any Other Position – DL or LB
7) #14 Draft Pick: Offensive Player vs. Defensive Player – Defensive player
8) #16 Draft Pick: From the Big 10 or SEC vs. Any Other Conference – Any other conference
9) #18 Draft Pick: Offensive Player vs. Defensive Player – Defensive Player
10) #20 Draft Pick: Listed at 240 lbs. or less vs. Listed at over 240 lbs. – Over 240 lbs.
11) #22 Draft Pick: Offensive Player vs. Defensive Player – Offensive Player
12) #24 Draft Pick: Offensive Player vs. Defensive Player – Defensive Player
13) #26 Draft Pick: SEC, Big 10, or PAC-10 vs. Any other conference – SEC, Big 10, PAC-10
14) #28 Draft Pick: Offensive Player vs. Defensive Player – Offensive Player
15) #30 Draft Pick: Listed at 240 lbs. or less vs. Listed at over 240 lbs. – 240 lbs. or less
16) #32 Draft Pick: ACC, Big East, or PAC-10 vs. Any Other Conference – Any other conference
17) #35 Draft Pick: Offensive Player vs. Defensive Player – Defensive player
18) #38 Draft Pick: Listed at 250 lbs. or Less vs. Over 250 lbs. – Over 250 lbs.

Analysis
1-5) Click here for a list 256 mock drafts. These die-hard fans have done most of the work for us already. I’ll post some conditional lists for who a team might pick if player A and player B are gone but player C is available a bit later on.

1) Jason Smith is from Baylor and is the odds on favorite to be selected here. Eugene Monroe from Virginia is his main competition. There are rumors about Monroe having problems with his knees but he is widely regarded as the more NFL ready prospect while Smith is more of a project. Do the Rams go for the ‘higher potential’ pick or the safer pick? Here is a good article from the St. Louis Post Dispatch about which player the various parts of the Rams organization favor.

2) Recent, and I mean very recent as in before yesterday nobody was talking about this, rumors have Mark Sanchez being selected by the Seahawks. The reasoning is that Sanchez could be the next Peyton Manning so a team who will be looking for a QB in a 2-3 years might rue the day they passed up on him. Hasselback has another two years on his contract and Seneca Wallace has done well as backup QB when Hasselback has been injured. So do you think the Seahawks will take the chance that Sanchez turns out to be the all-pro quarterback of the future, or select any other position, most likely an offensive lineman? Here is a link to the Seattle Post-Intelligencer. They appear to like Aaron Curry there and see Sanchez’s potential contract as a problem for the Seahawks in light of Stafford’s recent deal with the Lions. An argument can still be made for the potential reward of taking Mark Sanchez, who has only one year of college starting experience (remember Alex Smith?).

3) Andre Smith from Alabama is a favorite pick here. Tyson Jackson and Peria Jerry, both defensive linesmen, are the only other SEC players projected to possibly go this high. If Eugene Monroe is still available here the Bengals are likely to select the ACC offensive lineman. The staff at the Cincinnati Enquirer like Andre Smith with Monroe and Jason Smith being selected already. The other options are discussed here.

4) Eugene Monroe, Andre Smith, B.J. Raji, Brian Orakpoe, there are a number of linesman over 240 pounds who the Jaguars would like to get but who may not be available with the 8th pick. Watch out for trades involving teams, like the Jets, who may want to grab Sanchez at this spot if he’s available. If Raji, Monroe, and Smith are gone then it is likely an offensive position player will be selected who will be 240 pounds or less. Here’s a link to Jaguars coverage from the Florida Times-Union. And a good breakdown of the options available to the Jaguars. Trading down to allow another team to take Sanchez seems to be a popular theme.
UPDATE: With Raji and Monroe both still available a pick over Crabtree, and over 240 pounds is pretty darn likely here, but with Crabtree still available it’s tough to say for sure.

5) If reciever Michael Crabtree is available here the Niners may take one of them. They may even take Jeremy Maclin (WR) if he’s available. Otherwise they will probably be taking a defensive linesman and a non-WR pick seems most likely here. Here is a link to 49ers coverage from the San Francisco Chronicle. A bit of insight on the Niners’ draft strategy: take the best player available. And some more in-depth analysis from the staff.
UPDATE: Crabtree is going to be available after Green Bay selects Raji. The Packers have plenty of receivers already.

6) Most mock drafters have the Broncos taking someone like B.J. Raji or Everette Brown or Roger Ayers. Here’s a link to the Denver Post. Analysis from their staff indicates they’ll be taking a defensive linseman with their pick.

7) Malcolm Jenkins, at free safety, is a popular pick here. Here’s a link to the Louisiana Times-Picayune. They are hoping Jenkins is still available at #14 also.

8) Here’s a link to the San Diego Union-Tribue. Most mock drafts have the Chargers selecting either of running backs ‘Beanie’ Wells or Knowshon Moreno. Denver already has a huge number of running backs who were injured last year, but running back is not a need for them this year.

9) With Knowshon Moreno being a surprise pick by the Broncos at #12 a defensive player here seems almost assured.

10) A big offensive tackle sure would be a nice pick to complement Stafford.

11) Here’s a link to the Minnesota Star-Tribune. Harvin at wide-receiver is a staff favorite.

12) The Falcons traded during the off-season for Tony Gonzalez at tight end. Now they need to shore up their defense, and they know it. Vontae Davis or Evander Hood

13) Not surprising as we approach the lower end of the draft order the picks become a little more murky. Here’s a link to the Baltimore Sun. They may trade this pick which could make things even more murky, or make this pick a lock.
UPDATE: New England traded down for this pick and Darius Butler is a favorite.

14) Here’s a link to the Buffalo News. A tightend like Brandon Pettigrew, or even an offensive tackle would be good picks for the Bills.
UPDATE: Pettigrew is gone for the Bills, so they may settle for an offensive player in one of the later rounds. Phil Loadholt on offense is more likely to be the pick with Everette Brown on defensive also being likely.

15) Tennessee may go for a secondary player here, or someone like Clay Matthews or a big defensive lineman. I am leaning towards a lighter defensive back.

16) Here’s a link to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. They’re staff see the Steelers looking for a defensive lineman. If available, Evander Hood from Missouri would be a good pick. If Hood is gone then an offensive linesman from the PAC-10 would be their top choice.

18) The Cincinnati Bengals pick here and would like a big offensive linesman like Eric Wood. If he’s gone then a receiver would be the pick.
UPDATE: The Patriots took Wood. Bengals should take Britton or Beatty with Nicks and Robinskie gone.