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Man, another sub-.500 day after going over .500 on my picks in here. 1-3-0. I forgot they play in twosomes after the cut on the PGA Tour so I avoided picking de Jonge needlessly. He was fortunate to win by a stroke as Mediate bogeyed #8 and #9 to give up two strokes. Baylor started the day off right as they just out executed Virginia Tech. The Hokies couldn’t make a shot in the first half and Baylor just rolled. Baylor ended up winning 84-66. Then things started to go wrong. I definitely underestimated Villanova as a Big East school and they decimated UCLA, 89-69. UCLA could not get their offense flowing and were mercilessly outhustled for rebounds. Villanova shot the ball great, finishing with 46% field goal shooting.
Then it was on to Purdue vs. Washington. Washington started off cold and got themselves into a 12 point deficit, 20-8, with 10 minutes to go. Other than that first 10 minutes the Huskies played well and made a strong run. In the end, however, Brockman couldn’t tip in every miss Washington had. Isaiah Thomas led the team with 24 points, but he had to take 20 shots to do it. Washington shot 50% on their last six free throw attempts. Purdue also played a great game and only let Washington back into it after cooling off a few minutes into the second half.
The last game I picked was Gonzaga margin of victory. Texas stuck with Duke for nearly the entire game, but failed to successfully make a single clutch play in the final 90 seconds. They lost by 5. Gonzaga had a 7 point lead with 2 minutes to go but Orlando Mendez-Valdez helped make sure Western Kentucky would stay close. Gonzaga ended up winning by only two on a last second shot. Western Kentucky was more efficient on the offensive end than was Texas and that made all the difference. I hope you excuse this extra long intro, because it’s on to the picks.
1) Ajax Amsterdam @ NAC Breda – Ajax Amsterdam win
2) Siena @ Fiorentina – 2 goals or fewer
3) Arizona State vs. Syracuse – Syracuse
4) Philadelphia Flyers @ Pittsburgh Penguins – Pittsburgh
5) Miami Heat @ Detroit Pistons – Miami
6) South Africa vs. U.S.A., Australia, South Korea – U.S.A., Australia, South Korea
7) Carl Edwards vs. Jeff Gordon – Edwards has a better finsihing position
8) Wisconsin vs. Xavier – Xavier
9) Cleveland State vs. Arizona – Cleveland State
10) Marquette vs. Missouri – Missouri
11) USC vs. Michigan State – Michigan State
12) United States vs. Japan – Japan
13) Colorado Avalanche @ San Jose Sharks – 6 goals or more
22 NCAA/NIT games I’ve looked at and adjusted points has been on the side of 15 winners, 14 have had an advantage in steals, 13 have had the rebounding margin on their side, and 12 have had a better assist/turnover ratio, 3P, turnover margin, and/or fewer empty possessions. Also, I may have just sealed the Spartans’ fate vs. the Trojans. Whenever I’ve put a wickedly high confidence rating on a game that pick has been wrong. Fair warning, and great luck for advancement for streak!
Analysis
1) Ajax Amsterdam and NAC Breda are both dealing with a large number of injuries. Vertonghen is a big part of Ajax Amsterdam along with Gabri in midfield. They have been dealing well without one or the other or both lately. NAC Breda are missing a few more core players with Penders, Elshot, Mtiliga, Tamerus, van der Leegte, de Graaf, and Reuser out. All of these players have started for NAC Breda in midfield or on defense. They played without any of them and picked up a 3-0 victory on the road over Vitesse Arnhem, but lost to Feyenoord Rotterdam at home in the match before that. They’ve been playing well at home, but have yet to win at home with all these injury concerns.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Fiorentina have gone over 6 out of 13 home matches and Siena have gone over 5 of 14 away matches. That means 59.3% of their matches have gone under. The under is favored on most any betting line, though not by much on some. Siena have gone under in 80% of their matches with teams who concede as few goals as Fiorentina. Fiorentina have gone under in 25% of their matches with teams who give up as many goals as Siena. Siena concede 1.36 goals on average in away matches. Fiorentina concede 0.77 goals on average in home matches. That’s 2.13 goals against combined. Their combined goals scored on average is 2.25. Either way it looks like two or less goals, but one never knows if that third will bounce off the post or not.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) This is another potentially close game, along with Cleveland State/Arizona. Arizona State has an advantage in turnover margin and assist to turnover ratio. They’ll need to take care of the ball and force more turnovers than they give up to have a shot at winning. They also have an advantage in three point shooting. Syracuse’s advantages are in fewer empty possessions, adjusted points, steals, and rebounding margin. I think Syracuse will capitalize on rebounding and do well with their big men scoring inside. Their physical presence will have to disrupt Arizona State’s offensive flow to take away their advantages in A/T and turnover margin. I think Syracuse can do these things and the Sun Devils will find themselves making too many mistakes to win.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
5) Wade is ailing a bit for Miami, but he will play. Rasheed Wallace and Allen Iverson will be out for Detroit and there’s a good chance Rip Hamilton will miss the game to rest his groin for a game. Add in that Jermaine O’Neal seems to have rediscovered his offensive game and I think Miami wins here.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
6) This prop is asking what the nationality of the Transitions Open will be. Tom Lehman (U.S.A.) leads Retief Goosen (S.Africa) by one stroke. The next closest competitors are three strokes back and include two Americans, an Australian, and a South African. The next closest South African is Brendan De Jonge, 10 strokes back. So basically it’s Goosen and Immelman vs. Rest of Field. Considering how difficult the course has been it’s really just Lehman vs. Goosen unless they both hit over par. So this is a real tossup and I’ll go with the guy with the one stroke handicap.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) At first I was thinking Cleveland State had outdone themselves in beating Wake Forest and Arizona should take this matchup. Cleveland State has fewer empty possessions, more steals, and a better turnover margin. Arizona has a better adjusted points rating, greater rebounding margin, and three point shooting. I like Cleveland State’s defense, however, and after Washington’s performance I’m not impressed by a PAC-10 team out rebounding their opposition. That means overall I have to give the advantage to the Vikings here.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
11) Michigan State has the number one rebounding margin in the nation, and they did it playing in the Big 10. USC is probably going to get murdered on second chance points in this game. Michigan State also holds advantages in adjusted points, turnover margin, three point shooting, and assist to turnover ratio. USC has been more efficient with fewer empty possessions on average this season.
Confidence: W20 streak or less
12) It’s Japan, the defending World Baseball Classic champions. For some reason the sports books have this game as even or U.S.A. as a slight favorite. I really think Japan controls this game, but I have not the baseball insight to say why.
Confidence: W9 streak or less
And So It Goes....
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Saturday, March 21, 2009
March 21st, 2009 Picks
Man, 1-4-0 today, the beatings continue. Started out with Immelman hitting zero birdies and one bogey, while Watney shot a cooool 2 under for the front nine. Then I went against my initial instinct and switched my pick to Tennessee. I didn’t get to see any of the game but looks like Oklahoma State was in the lead for most of the game. Then I got my single win of the day on the Dayton/West Virginia over/under. Looks like Dayton missed a couple of free throws at the end that could have put it over the top! Thank goodness for 64.6% free throw shooting.
My next pick was Boston College over USC. They took a 4 point lead into the half but USC came out firing strong. The Eagles stuck around for a while but when they went cold USC did not. End result USC 72, Boston College 55. My final game of the night I picked against my blog and went with Florida State. They looked good at the half, up 31-19. Finally, a win I wouldn’t have to sweat out. Well, Wisconsin came out and outscored FSU big time in the second half. In overtime things were close all the way but again the Seminoles couldn’t help themselves from turning the ball over. Toney Douglas had a shot with 12 seconds to go and a one point lead. Instead of getting the ball inside for an easy deuce he settles for a three, misses, and gives Wisconsin the ball. Trevon Hughes drove to the hoop and drew a foul while making an incredible shot on the Badgers’ final possession. Wisconsin won, and my bracket won, 61-59. So on to the picks.
1) Rocco Mediate vs. Brendan de Jonge – de Jonge cards a lower front 9 score
2) Chelsea @ Tottenham Hotspur – Tottenham Hotspur win or draw
3) Baylor @ Virginia Tech – Baylor
4) UCLA vs. Villanova – UCLA
5) Reading @ Crystal Palace – 2 goals or fewer
6) Ireland @ Wales – Wales win
7) Steve Stricker vs. Nick Watney – Nick Watney cards a lower 3rd round score
8) Clint Bowyer vs. Kevin Harvick – Harvick has a better finishing position
9) Memphis win margin vs. Connecticut win margin – Connecticut win margin
10) Purdue vs. Washington – Washington
11) Columbus Blue Jackets @ Florida Panthers – Florida
12) Duke win margin vs. Gonzaga win margin – Gonzaga win margin
13) Korea vs. Venezuela – Korea
14) Antawn Jamison pts. and reb. vs. Steve Nash pts., ast. and stl. – Jamison pts. and rebs.
With college basketball I’ve been looking at what statistical categories the winning team did better in over the course of the regular season. So far 9 out of 14 winners have had advantages in rebounding margin and adjusted points. 8 of 14 winners were better in steals and assist to turnover ratio. Half of those 14 were better in terms of fewer empty possessions. Most of my college basketball picks today (and yesterday) are (were) based on these assumptions.
Analysis
2) Both soccer clubs are performing well lately. Tottenham Hotspur are 2-4-0 (W-D-L) in their last 6 home matches. Chelsea are 2-2-2 in their last 6 away matches. Fulham and Everton are the only teams to tie a visiting Chelsea and Manchester United and Liverpool the only ones to defeat them this season. Tottenham Hotspur have tied Manchester United and Arsenal in those past six matches. The Spurs have only allowed 0.643 goals per home match this season and only 0.417 goals in their last 12 matches. Chelsea only allow 0.571 goals in away matches this season. Chelsea have only allowed a goal in 4 away matches, with 10 shutouts aside. I like the striking power of Robbie Keane and Darren Bent along with Aaron Lennon. A 0-0 draw seems possible here.
Confidence: W1
3) Baylor has the advantage in steals, adjusted points, empty possessions, and three point shooting. Virginia Tech’s main advantage is in rebounding margin. Baylor is 3-7 on the road this season and Virginia Tech is 10-5 at home. Virginia Tech is a four point home favorite. I still like Bayor’s chances to win here with their three point shooting.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) Villanova is the higher seed and are a 2 to 3 point favorite in Vegas. Villanova also has a slight edge in rebounding margin, +4.1 to +3.8. UCLA has the edge in assist to turnover ratio, adjusted points, empty possessions, and steals. If Washington is the most solid straight up pick then UCLA is the next most solid, but I still have to give Villanova some credit for being a great team.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
9) Memphis and Connecticut should both walk all over their opponents even being as highly regarded as they are. Memphis is a 9 point favorite and Connecticut is a 10 point favorite in Vegas. Connecticut has an advantage in all four of the most predictive categories, rebounding margin, assist to turnover ratio, steals, and adjusted points. Memphis has an advantage in three of these categories, with Maryland having the better overall assist to turnover ratio. Maryland is a stronger defensive team than Texas A&M, at least in terms of turnover margin, FG% defense, 3P% defense, steals, and blocks. Memphis does have a pretty huge advantage in rebounding margin, +6.2 to -1.6, so I may have to switch back to Memphis.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
10) Washington has a +8.3 rebounding margin in their previous 34 games. Purdue has a -0.3 rebounding margin. Washington also averages a possibly insignificant 0.4 more steals per game. Washington has the advantage in adjusted points as well. Teams with advantages in rebounding margin and adjusted points have been 5-1. Dayton is the only team to win without having an advantage in either category, so I won’t say Purdue won’t win, but Washington is the best bet of any of the straight up matchups today.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
12) Western Kentucky actually matched up with Illinois pretty well and had more than a few statistical advantages. Here Gonzaga has the edge in adjusted points, assist to turnover ratio, steals, and empty possessions. Western Kentucky has a +1.6 edge in rebounding margin. Gonzaga is an 11 point favorite. Texas has a +1.7 edge in rebounding margin over Duke, and an edge in empty possessions. Duke has the edge in steals, three pointers scored, and adjusted points. Duke is an 8 point favorite to win.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
14) Antawn Jamison averages 31.0 points and rebounds on the season compared to 25.0 points and assists for Steve Nash. In their last 10 games Jamison has averaged 33.0 points and rebounds per game while Nash has averaged 31.5 points and assists. In their previous meeting at Washington Jamison had 40 points and rebounds while Nash had 29 points and assists.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
My next pick was Boston College over USC. They took a 4 point lead into the half but USC came out firing strong. The Eagles stuck around for a while but when they went cold USC did not. End result USC 72, Boston College 55. My final game of the night I picked against my blog and went with Florida State. They looked good at the half, up 31-19. Finally, a win I wouldn’t have to sweat out. Well, Wisconsin came out and outscored FSU big time in the second half. In overtime things were close all the way but again the Seminoles couldn’t help themselves from turning the ball over. Toney Douglas had a shot with 12 seconds to go and a one point lead. Instead of getting the ball inside for an easy deuce he settles for a three, misses, and gives Wisconsin the ball. Trevon Hughes drove to the hoop and drew a foul while making an incredible shot on the Badgers’ final possession. Wisconsin won, and my bracket won, 61-59. So on to the picks.
1) Rocco Mediate vs. Brendan de Jonge – de Jonge cards a lower front 9 score
2) Chelsea @ Tottenham Hotspur – Tottenham Hotspur win or draw
3) Baylor @ Virginia Tech – Baylor
4) UCLA vs. Villanova – UCLA
5) Reading @ Crystal Palace – 2 goals or fewer
6) Ireland @ Wales – Wales win
7) Steve Stricker vs. Nick Watney – Nick Watney cards a lower 3rd round score
8) Clint Bowyer vs. Kevin Harvick – Harvick has a better finishing position
9) Memphis win margin vs. Connecticut win margin – Connecticut win margin
10) Purdue vs. Washington – Washington
11) Columbus Blue Jackets @ Florida Panthers – Florida
12) Duke win margin vs. Gonzaga win margin – Gonzaga win margin
13) Korea vs. Venezuela – Korea
14) Antawn Jamison pts. and reb. vs. Steve Nash pts., ast. and stl. – Jamison pts. and rebs.
With college basketball I’ve been looking at what statistical categories the winning team did better in over the course of the regular season. So far 9 out of 14 winners have had advantages in rebounding margin and adjusted points. 8 of 14 winners were better in steals and assist to turnover ratio. Half of those 14 were better in terms of fewer empty possessions. Most of my college basketball picks today (and yesterday) are (were) based on these assumptions.
Analysis
2) Both soccer clubs are performing well lately. Tottenham Hotspur are 2-4-0 (W-D-L) in their last 6 home matches. Chelsea are 2-2-2 in their last 6 away matches. Fulham and Everton are the only teams to tie a visiting Chelsea and Manchester United and Liverpool the only ones to defeat them this season. Tottenham Hotspur have tied Manchester United and Arsenal in those past six matches. The Spurs have only allowed 0.643 goals per home match this season and only 0.417 goals in their last 12 matches. Chelsea only allow 0.571 goals in away matches this season. Chelsea have only allowed a goal in 4 away matches, with 10 shutouts aside. I like the striking power of Robbie Keane and Darren Bent along with Aaron Lennon. A 0-0 draw seems possible here.
Confidence: W1
3) Baylor has the advantage in steals, adjusted points, empty possessions, and three point shooting. Virginia Tech’s main advantage is in rebounding margin. Baylor is 3-7 on the road this season and Virginia Tech is 10-5 at home. Virginia Tech is a four point home favorite. I still like Bayor’s chances to win here with their three point shooting.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) Villanova is the higher seed and are a 2 to 3 point favorite in Vegas. Villanova also has a slight edge in rebounding margin, +4.1 to +3.8. UCLA has the edge in assist to turnover ratio, adjusted points, empty possessions, and steals. If Washington is the most solid straight up pick then UCLA is the next most solid, but I still have to give Villanova some credit for being a great team.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
9) Memphis and Connecticut should both walk all over their opponents even being as highly regarded as they are. Memphis is a 9 point favorite and Connecticut is a 10 point favorite in Vegas. Connecticut has an advantage in all four of the most predictive categories, rebounding margin, assist to turnover ratio, steals, and adjusted points. Memphis has an advantage in three of these categories, with Maryland having the better overall assist to turnover ratio. Maryland is a stronger defensive team than Texas A&M, at least in terms of turnover margin, FG% defense, 3P% defense, steals, and blocks. Memphis does have a pretty huge advantage in rebounding margin, +6.2 to -1.6, so I may have to switch back to Memphis.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
10) Washington has a +8.3 rebounding margin in their previous 34 games. Purdue has a -0.3 rebounding margin. Washington also averages a possibly insignificant 0.4 more steals per game. Washington has the advantage in adjusted points as well. Teams with advantages in rebounding margin and adjusted points have been 5-1. Dayton is the only team to win without having an advantage in either category, so I won’t say Purdue won’t win, but Washington is the best bet of any of the straight up matchups today.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
12) Western Kentucky actually matched up with Illinois pretty well and had more than a few statistical advantages. Here Gonzaga has the edge in adjusted points, assist to turnover ratio, steals, and empty possessions. Western Kentucky has a +1.6 edge in rebounding margin. Gonzaga is an 11 point favorite. Texas has a +1.7 edge in rebounding margin over Duke, and an edge in empty possessions. Duke has the edge in steals, three pointers scored, and adjusted points. Duke is an 8 point favorite to win.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
14) Antawn Jamison averages 31.0 points and rebounds on the season compared to 25.0 points and assists for Steve Nash. In their last 10 games Jamison has averaged 33.0 points and rebounds per game while Nash has averaged 31.5 points and assists. In their previous meeting at Washington Jamison had 40 points and rebounds while Nash had 29 points and assists.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
Friday, March 20, 2009
March 20th, 2009 Picks
2-3-0…. The front nine for Ryuji Imada and Sean O’Hair, 1st and 2nd place in last years tournament, battled to even par until the 9th hole where Imada got his first birdie of the day to win 35 strokes to 36. LSU got out to an early lead over Butler and were able to hold on for the win. I took BYU, however, and they got stomped. Texas A&M made their first 10 field goals and were 11 for 12 at one point where BYU was shooting 21.4%. BYU got the lead down to 9 and had two opportunities to make threes but couldn’t capitalize on the way to their seventh straight first round exit in the NCAA tournament. Then I took a gamble on California to ‘upset’ the ‘underdogs’, Maryland. It was a hard fought game but California failed to score for a couple of minutes in the second half and that was all it took for Maryland to go ahead by a dozen. Maryland ended up winning 84-71.
Notre Dame took on the visiting Lobos of New Mexico. They took a big lead early on going up 10 at the half. New Mexico played a terrific second half and had a five point lead with two minutes remaining. Notre Dame was able to score just enough points to end up 70-68. UCLA was much to same, going up 10 over VCU at the half and then giving the entire lead back. It all came down to the final possession as Maynor took the ball for VCU, down 1, with 12 seconds to go. He ended up getting a 12 foot jump shot with Darren Collison in his face. He tried to pump fake but Collison didn’t bite, and Maynor’s fall away jumper clanked off the front of the rim. Illinois was down 17 with four minutes remaining and fell just short of Western Kentucky 76-72. So on to the picks.
1) Trevor Immelman vs. Nick Watney – Immelman cards a lower front 9 score
2) Tennessee vs Oklahoma State – Tennessee
3) Syracuse win margin vs. Kansas win margin – Kansas win margin
4) Dayton vs. West Virginia – 129 points or fewer
5) VfL Bochum @ Borussia Monchengladbach – VfL Bochum win or draw
6) Charlotte Bobcats @ Toronto Raptors – Toronto
7) Arizona vs. Utah – Arizona
8) USC vs. Boston College – Boston College
9) Philadelphia Flyers @ Buffalo Sabres – Philadelphia
10) Siena vs. Ohio State – Siena
11) Wisconsin vs. Florida State – Wisconsin
12) Philadelphia 76ers vs. Golden State Warriors – Philadelphia
I’ll probably end up making a couple of changes here and there. Yesterday the guy with the better stats and better performance from last year lost on the front 9 so I literally flipped a coin on this one. Go Immelman! And good luck!
Analysis
2) Tennessee looks to have a major advantage on the boards in their game against Oklahoma State. Tennessee averages 4.6 boards more than their opposition while the Cowboys are out rebounded by 1.1 per game. Oklahoma State shoots a lot of three pointers, about 24 per game, and makes about 9 of them. Both teams force more turnovers than they give up, Oklahoma State has a +2.8 turnover margin and Tennessee is at +1.8. It looks like this will be a close game so with Oklahoma State shooting 74.3 from the line compared to 67.4% for the Volunteers I think the Cowboys have the advantage. Tennessee is a two to three point favorite in the sportsbooks.
UPDATE: On further analysis Oklahoma State has too many empty possessions in comparison to Tennessee. That, plus rebounding margin makes Tennessee the pick for me.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Syracuse is a 12 point favorite over Stephen F. Austin and Kansas is a 10 point favorite over North Dakota State. North Dakota State has one player taller than 6’8", and that’s Lucas Moormann at 6’10" and 240 pounds. He’s the one player the Bison have who can possibly stop Cole Aldrich down low and he’s been known to get into foul trouble early. I expect him to play for more than his usual 21 minutes in this game. Stephen F. Austin’s biggest man is 6’9" 240lbs. Benson Akpan. Ongenaut, Jackson, Harris, and Onuaku should be able to have a field day on Stephen F. Ausin, but I have a feeling the Lumberjacks will surprise Syracuse with their offensive capabilities. In the end I think Kansas’ superior defense will keep North Dakota State from scoring while Syracuse will be forced to keep putting points up to extend their lead.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
5) Borussia Monchengladbach has been playing some terrific soccer lately with a 4-2 road win over FC Cologne and a 4-1 home win over SV Hamburg. VfL Bochum has been dealing with injury issues in their defensive front but have done well enough on the road pulling 1-1 draws at Arminia Bielefeld and Bayer Leverkusen. VfL Bochum will be missing an additional player from those squads, Marc Pfertzel. Borussia Monchengladbach have obviously been playing good football and they are favored to win with a Bochum win or a draw being just slightly favored when taken together. When Monchengladbach have been behind at the half at home they have never won. Bochum have lost four times and taken two draws when trailing at the half in away games. Monchengladbach have won once and lost twice at home when the match has been tied at the half. Bochum have drawn twice and lost once on the road when it has been tied at the half. VfL Bochum have allowed 18 goals in away matches and scored 8. Borussia Monchengladbach have allowed 22 goals at home and scored 19.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
8) Boston College is averaging 21 empty possessions per game compared to 19 empty possessions for Southern California. USC only makes 3.8 three pointers per game on average, and Boston College makes 6.4. USC has an assist to turnover ratio of 0.88. Boston College gets 1.11 assist to every turnover. Boston College plays at a faster pace, finally, so the empty possessions will end up hurting USC more.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
11) Florida State seems like they should be the lock of the day, even to me. Toney Douglas is a terrific ball player and the size of Florida State can give problems to anybody on the inside. Wisconsin out rebounds their opponents by 3.7 on average and Florida State only by 0.7. In the Big 10 where there are a lot of rebounds to grab and big players to grab them that says something. Wisconsin also has a much better assist/turnover ratio at 1.20 compared to 0.78 for Florida. Florida State turns the ball over quite a bit it seems. Wisconsin makes more three point shots per game and shoots a higher percentage than Florida State. The Seminoles should have an advantage when it comes to defense, however. I like Wisconsin having an advantage on rebounding and assist/turnover ratio, however, as five of six victors from yesterday had one or both of these statistical advantages. Florida State is a 2.5 to 3.5 point favorite.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
12) I just like the 76ers with Andre Miller, Samuel Dalembert, Thaddeus Young, Lou Williams, and Andre Iguodala. The Golden State Warriors can be very good at home, but have been only 3-3 at home lately with losses to Utah, Charlotte and Phoenix. Their victories have come against the L.A. Clippers, Dallas, and New Jersey. Philadelphia is 4-2 on the road recently with victories over the N.Y. Knicks, the L.A. Lakers, Memphis, and Washington. Their losses have been to Oklahoma City and Phoenix.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
Notre Dame took on the visiting Lobos of New Mexico. They took a big lead early on going up 10 at the half. New Mexico played a terrific second half and had a five point lead with two minutes remaining. Notre Dame was able to score just enough points to end up 70-68. UCLA was much to same, going up 10 over VCU at the half and then giving the entire lead back. It all came down to the final possession as Maynor took the ball for VCU, down 1, with 12 seconds to go. He ended up getting a 12 foot jump shot with Darren Collison in his face. He tried to pump fake but Collison didn’t bite, and Maynor’s fall away jumper clanked off the front of the rim. Illinois was down 17 with four minutes remaining and fell just short of Western Kentucky 76-72. So on to the picks.
1) Trevor Immelman vs. Nick Watney – Immelman cards a lower front 9 score
2) Tennessee vs Oklahoma State – Tennessee
3) Syracuse win margin vs. Kansas win margin – Kansas win margin
4) Dayton vs. West Virginia – 129 points or fewer
5) VfL Bochum @ Borussia Monchengladbach – VfL Bochum win or draw
6) Charlotte Bobcats @ Toronto Raptors – Toronto
7) Arizona vs. Utah – Arizona
8) USC vs. Boston College – Boston College
9) Philadelphia Flyers @ Buffalo Sabres – Philadelphia
10) Siena vs. Ohio State – Siena
11) Wisconsin vs. Florida State – Wisconsin
12) Philadelphia 76ers vs. Golden State Warriors – Philadelphia
I’ll probably end up making a couple of changes here and there. Yesterday the guy with the better stats and better performance from last year lost on the front 9 so I literally flipped a coin on this one. Go Immelman! And good luck!
Analysis
2) Tennessee looks to have a major advantage on the boards in their game against Oklahoma State. Tennessee averages 4.6 boards more than their opposition while the Cowboys are out rebounded by 1.1 per game. Oklahoma State shoots a lot of three pointers, about 24 per game, and makes about 9 of them. Both teams force more turnovers than they give up, Oklahoma State has a +2.8 turnover margin and Tennessee is at +1.8. It looks like this will be a close game so with Oklahoma State shooting 74.3 from the line compared to 67.4% for the Volunteers I think the Cowboys have the advantage. Tennessee is a two to three point favorite in the sportsbooks.
UPDATE: On further analysis Oklahoma State has too many empty possessions in comparison to Tennessee. That, plus rebounding margin makes Tennessee the pick for me.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Syracuse is a 12 point favorite over Stephen F. Austin and Kansas is a 10 point favorite over North Dakota State. North Dakota State has one player taller than 6’8", and that’s Lucas Moormann at 6’10" and 240 pounds. He’s the one player the Bison have who can possibly stop Cole Aldrich down low and he’s been known to get into foul trouble early. I expect him to play for more than his usual 21 minutes in this game. Stephen F. Austin’s biggest man is 6’9" 240lbs. Benson Akpan. Ongenaut, Jackson, Harris, and Onuaku should be able to have a field day on Stephen F. Ausin, but I have a feeling the Lumberjacks will surprise Syracuse with their offensive capabilities. In the end I think Kansas’ superior defense will keep North Dakota State from scoring while Syracuse will be forced to keep putting points up to extend their lead.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
5) Borussia Monchengladbach has been playing some terrific soccer lately with a 4-2 road win over FC Cologne and a 4-1 home win over SV Hamburg. VfL Bochum has been dealing with injury issues in their defensive front but have done well enough on the road pulling 1-1 draws at Arminia Bielefeld and Bayer Leverkusen. VfL Bochum will be missing an additional player from those squads, Marc Pfertzel. Borussia Monchengladbach have obviously been playing good football and they are favored to win with a Bochum win or a draw being just slightly favored when taken together. When Monchengladbach have been behind at the half at home they have never won. Bochum have lost four times and taken two draws when trailing at the half in away games. Monchengladbach have won once and lost twice at home when the match has been tied at the half. Bochum have drawn twice and lost once on the road when it has been tied at the half. VfL Bochum have allowed 18 goals in away matches and scored 8. Borussia Monchengladbach have allowed 22 goals at home and scored 19.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
8) Boston College is averaging 21 empty possessions per game compared to 19 empty possessions for Southern California. USC only makes 3.8 three pointers per game on average, and Boston College makes 6.4. USC has an assist to turnover ratio of 0.88. Boston College gets 1.11 assist to every turnover. Boston College plays at a faster pace, finally, so the empty possessions will end up hurting USC more.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
11) Florida State seems like they should be the lock of the day, even to me. Toney Douglas is a terrific ball player and the size of Florida State can give problems to anybody on the inside. Wisconsin out rebounds their opponents by 3.7 on average and Florida State only by 0.7. In the Big 10 where there are a lot of rebounds to grab and big players to grab them that says something. Wisconsin also has a much better assist/turnover ratio at 1.20 compared to 0.78 for Florida. Florida State turns the ball over quite a bit it seems. Wisconsin makes more three point shots per game and shoots a higher percentage than Florida State. The Seminoles should have an advantage when it comes to defense, however. I like Wisconsin having an advantage on rebounding and assist/turnover ratio, however, as five of six victors from yesterday had one or both of these statistical advantages. Florida State is a 2.5 to 3.5 point favorite.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
12) I just like the 76ers with Andre Miller, Samuel Dalembert, Thaddeus Young, Lou Williams, and Andre Iguodala. The Golden State Warriors can be very good at home, but have been only 3-3 at home lately with losses to Utah, Charlotte and Phoenix. Their victories have come against the L.A. Clippers, Dallas, and New Jersey. Philadelphia is 4-2 on the road recently with victories over the N.Y. Knicks, the L.A. Lakers, Memphis, and Washington. Their losses have been to Oklahoma City and Phoenix.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
Thursday, March 19, 2009
March 19th, 2009 Picks
1-2-0 today, started out well when FC Kärnten went up 2-1 at the half and finished the game up 4-2 after hitting a fourth goal in the 89th minute. It was solid soccer, the Austrians played some of the best defense and offense I’ve seen in any league. Then I went with Providence over Miami. I guess Weyinmi Efejuku got smacked in the face early on and had to sit most of the first half. Miami took an 11 point lead and was able to stave off any Providence runs after that behind 7 of 14 three point shooting by Jack McClinton. Then I avoided taking Artest behind reports of Rip Hamilton missing the game along with Rasheed Wallace. I took Drake instead and they were just barely unable to come back and ended up losing 69-67 while Artest outscored Prince 26 to 12. So on to the picks.
1) Ryuji Imada vs. Sean O’Hair – O’Hair cards a lower front nine score
2) Butler vs. LSU – LSU
3) Texas A&M vs. BYU – BYU
4) Maryland vs. California – California
5) New Mexico @ Notre Dame – Notre Dame
6) Villanova win margin vs. Gonzaga win margin – Gonzaga win margin
7) Montreal Canadiens @ Ottawa Senators – Montreal
8) New York Red Bulls @ Seattle FC Sounders – New York
9) Japan @ Korea – Japan
10) UCLA win margin vs. Illinois win margin – UCLA win margin
11) Anaheim Ducks vs. Phoenix Coyotes – Anaheim
12) Stephen Jackson pts. and ast. vs. Kobe Bryant pts. – Jackson pts. and ast.
I’m mostly just going by statistics for the college basketball games with a bit of performance to finish the season. Good luck everybody!
Analysis
1) Sean O’Hair appears to be the better golfer statistically and in terms of money won on the Tour this year. On nine holes, however, either player has a good chance to shoot a lower score. Here’s an article that suggests O’Hair is as good a choice as any to be leading the field after the first round. I’ll go with the player more likely to win this prop.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Texas A&M has a better rebounding margin at +5.3 to +4.2 for BYU. BYU does better at taking care of the ball with a +2.5 turnover margin to -0.3 for the Aggies. The Cougars also shoot better from three, from the line, and from the field in general. ESPN analysts are giving the Texas A&M defense a lot of credit, but overall their opponents shoot fairly high percentages, 43.1% on FG’s and 36.2% on threes. BYU has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.43 on the season compared to 0.95 for the Aggies. If BYU’s shot is falling they should grab a victory from buzzer to buzzer.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
4) California has a lot of advantages offensively. They’re the number one team in the nation in three point shooting percentage. They don’t shoot too many of them, but I doubt Maryland will have an advantage here even with their solid perimeter defense. Maryland may also be better at blocking shots and stealing the ball but I think California will force their share of turnovers as well.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) Gonzaga is a #4 seed and Villanova is a #3 seed. Having seen Gonzaga and Villanova play I’d say Gonzaga has a stronger killer instinct and when Pargo, Bouldin, and Heytvelt are in a groove Gonzaga is an offensive juggernaut. Gonzaga has an average non-conference margin of victory of 11.5 with games against Utah, Tennessee (2x), Arizona, Washington State, Maryland, Oklahoma State, UCONN, Memphis and Penn State. Probably the toughest non-conference schedule in the nation. Villanova has an average non-conference margin of victory of 15.0 with games against Texas, Temple, and Niagara. Villanova’s most lopsided win was a 39 point victory over Fordham. For Gonzaga it is a 42 point win over Texas Southern.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
9) Korea has a 2-1 record against Japan in this year’s World Baseball Championship with Jungkeun Bong starting on the mound for Korea in both victories. Japan won 15-2 in their first game where Bong was not pitching. Bong pitched in their win over Japan on March 17th so he will not be pitching in today’s game. Korea is the defending Olympic champions but Japan is the favorite in Vegas.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
11) Jonas Hiller is undefeated against the Phoenix Coyotes this season. Anaheim is on the second night of a back to back while Phoenix is rested. Anaheim is 16-15-3 on the road this season including a win at Phoenix. Phoenix is 18-14-2 at home. Ilya Bryzgalov is in net tonight for Phoenix.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
1) Ryuji Imada vs. Sean O’Hair – O’Hair cards a lower front nine score
2) Butler vs. LSU – LSU
3) Texas A&M vs. BYU – BYU
4) Maryland vs. California – California
5) New Mexico @ Notre Dame – Notre Dame
6) Villanova win margin vs. Gonzaga win margin – Gonzaga win margin
7) Montreal Canadiens @ Ottawa Senators – Montreal
8) New York Red Bulls @ Seattle FC Sounders – New York
9) Japan @ Korea – Japan
10) UCLA win margin vs. Illinois win margin – UCLA win margin
11) Anaheim Ducks vs. Phoenix Coyotes – Anaheim
12) Stephen Jackson pts. and ast. vs. Kobe Bryant pts. – Jackson pts. and ast.
I’m mostly just going by statistics for the college basketball games with a bit of performance to finish the season. Good luck everybody!
Analysis
1) Sean O’Hair appears to be the better golfer statistically and in terms of money won on the Tour this year. On nine holes, however, either player has a good chance to shoot a lower score. Here’s an article that suggests O’Hair is as good a choice as any to be leading the field after the first round. I’ll go with the player more likely to win this prop.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Texas A&M has a better rebounding margin at +5.3 to +4.2 for BYU. BYU does better at taking care of the ball with a +2.5 turnover margin to -0.3 for the Aggies. The Cougars also shoot better from three, from the line, and from the field in general. ESPN analysts are giving the Texas A&M defense a lot of credit, but overall their opponents shoot fairly high percentages, 43.1% on FG’s and 36.2% on threes. BYU has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.43 on the season compared to 0.95 for the Aggies. If BYU’s shot is falling they should grab a victory from buzzer to buzzer.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
4) California has a lot of advantages offensively. They’re the number one team in the nation in three point shooting percentage. They don’t shoot too many of them, but I doubt Maryland will have an advantage here even with their solid perimeter defense. Maryland may also be better at blocking shots and stealing the ball but I think California will force their share of turnovers as well.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) Gonzaga is a #4 seed and Villanova is a #3 seed. Having seen Gonzaga and Villanova play I’d say Gonzaga has a stronger killer instinct and when Pargo, Bouldin, and Heytvelt are in a groove Gonzaga is an offensive juggernaut. Gonzaga has an average non-conference margin of victory of 11.5 with games against Utah, Tennessee (2x), Arizona, Washington State, Maryland, Oklahoma State, UCONN, Memphis and Penn State. Probably the toughest non-conference schedule in the nation. Villanova has an average non-conference margin of victory of 15.0 with games against Texas, Temple, and Niagara. Villanova’s most lopsided win was a 39 point victory over Fordham. For Gonzaga it is a 42 point win over Texas Southern.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
9) Korea has a 2-1 record against Japan in this year’s World Baseball Championship with Jungkeun Bong starting on the mound for Korea in both victories. Japan won 15-2 in their first game where Bong was not pitching. Bong pitched in their win over Japan on March 17th so he will not be pitching in today’s game. Korea is the defending Olympic champions but Japan is the favorite in Vegas.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
11) Jonas Hiller is undefeated against the Phoenix Coyotes this season. Anaheim is on the second night of a back to back while Phoenix is rested. Anaheim is 16-15-3 on the road this season including a win at Phoenix. Phoenix is 18-14-2 at home. Ilya Bryzgalov is in net tonight for Phoenix.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
March 18th, 2009 Picks
Man, what a bad 1-3-0 day. Institute lost 2-1 with Newry City’s top scorers each tagging one in the net, that’s fine. Then I switched my pick from 3 goals or fewer to 4 goals or more and lost that one with Arsenal barely scoring two to win 2-1 over Hull CIty. Then I had Morehead State locked in and switched it to South Carolina for absolutely no reason. The Gamecocks lost and Morehead State stomped Alabama State with a 47 to 26 rebounding edge. I finally got back on track with UNLV three pointers. They were shooting terribly in the first half and were down 3 to 5 to Kentucky even though they had shot more than twice as many. They eventually found their stroke and put in 7 in the second half to 1 for Kentucky and took the prop 10 to 6. UNLV shot 34 threes for the game! So on to today’s picks and more than a few wins.
1) SK Sturm Graz @ FC Kärnten – FC Kärnten win
2) Chicago Blackhawks @ Columbus Blue Jackets – Columbus
3) Miami @ Providence – Providence
4) Dwyane Wade pts. vs. Paul Pierce pts., reb., and ast. – Wade pts.
5) United States vs. Venezuela – Venezuela
6) Chicago @ Oklahoma City – Oklahoma City
7) Georgetown @ Baylor – Baylor
8) Tayshaun Prince pts. vs. Ron Artest pts. – Artest pts.
9) Nahsville Predators @ Anaheim Ducks – Nashville
10) Drake @ Idaho – Drake
Arrrrr, avast, and taco ye laterrrr!
Analysis
1) SK Sturm Graz defeated FC Kärnten 3-0 at Graz and 2-0 at Kärnten in August and October. The only major change to Graz since then is the replacement of Josef Schiklgruber (0.455 GAA in 11 matches) with Martin Kobras (0.667 GAA in 3 matches). FC Kärnten have lost their top goal scorer, Adi Roche Filho, to Energie Cottbus during the winter break, otherwise they are much the same team as well. Since the winter break FC Kärnten have defeated SV Salzburg, who are first in the tables, 2-0 at home. SK Sturm Graz have yet to win a match and lost at home to Kapfenberg SV who are 8th in the tables. FC Kärnten have allowed 9 goals to opponents in home matches, while Sturm Graz have allowed 22 goals in away matches. FC Kärnten have not lost at home this season when leading at the half, and Sturm Graz have not lost on the road this season when leading. Neither side has won matches in which they’ve been down at the half either. SK Sturm Graz have not ended an away match in a draw this season. I think FC Kärnten will be up 1-0 or tied 0-0 at half time and will end the game winning 2-0 or 1-0.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Providence is a 2.5 to 3 point favorite here and are at home where they were 13-4 on the season. Miami has a 5-6 road record. Providence has four players averaging 10 points or more and seven players averaging at least 8 points per game. Miami has two players averaging over 10 points per game and four players at over 8 points per game. Providence doesn’t have the greatest defense so I expect Jack McClinton will have a good game for Miami, but Miami’s defense isn’t good enough to stop all the scoring options for Providence. Miami will probably have a rebounding advantage, but it won’t be anywhere close to the +19 Morehead State had over Alabama State yesterday. Should be a close game, but I like Providence to prevail in the end.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
5) Venezuela lost to USA 15-6 before and then defeated them 5-3. Both teams are in the semi-finals already so this game will primarily determine seeding. The United States are low on relief pitchers tonight and so the advantage would appear to go to Venezuela.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
8) The last time these two teams played it was in Detroit and Artest outscored Prince 24 to 6. Now they’re playing in Houston, Detroit is coming off a loss at Dallas, and Houston’s defense is as good as it’s been all year. Artest is averaging 17.7 points in his last 10 games and Prince is averaging 17.9 points in his last 10. In their recent home/away games Artest is averaging 15.8 points and Prince is averaging 16.0 points. When the stats are this close I’ll go with the home player who won easily in their previous matchup.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
10) Idaho is at home and is a 1 point favorite. Idaho is 12-3 at home this season and Drake is 4-6 on the road this season. Idaho’s losses at home came against Washington State, Utah State, and Nevada. Drake has some fine non-conference wins, defeating Iowa (Big 10), Morehead State (playing Louisville in the first round of the NCAA Tournament), and New Mexico (Mountain West). Idaho has a win at home against Cal State-Northridge who is also in the NCAA Tournament. Statistically the two teams are well matched. So really Idaho at home would seem to be the best choice here but I will go with Drake on the road anyways.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
1) SK Sturm Graz @ FC Kärnten – FC Kärnten win
2) Chicago Blackhawks @ Columbus Blue Jackets – Columbus
3) Miami @ Providence – Providence
4) Dwyane Wade pts. vs. Paul Pierce pts., reb., and ast. – Wade pts.
5) United States vs. Venezuela – Venezuela
6) Chicago @ Oklahoma City – Oklahoma City
7) Georgetown @ Baylor – Baylor
8) Tayshaun Prince pts. vs. Ron Artest pts. – Artest pts.
9) Nahsville Predators @ Anaheim Ducks – Nashville
10) Drake @ Idaho – Drake
Arrrrr, avast, and taco ye laterrrr!
Analysis
1) SK Sturm Graz defeated FC Kärnten 3-0 at Graz and 2-0 at Kärnten in August and October. The only major change to Graz since then is the replacement of Josef Schiklgruber (0.455 GAA in 11 matches) with Martin Kobras (0.667 GAA in 3 matches). FC Kärnten have lost their top goal scorer, Adi Roche Filho, to Energie Cottbus during the winter break, otherwise they are much the same team as well. Since the winter break FC Kärnten have defeated SV Salzburg, who are first in the tables, 2-0 at home. SK Sturm Graz have yet to win a match and lost at home to Kapfenberg SV who are 8th in the tables. FC Kärnten have allowed 9 goals to opponents in home matches, while Sturm Graz have allowed 22 goals in away matches. FC Kärnten have not lost at home this season when leading at the half, and Sturm Graz have not lost on the road this season when leading. Neither side has won matches in which they’ve been down at the half either. SK Sturm Graz have not ended an away match in a draw this season. I think FC Kärnten will be up 1-0 or tied 0-0 at half time and will end the game winning 2-0 or 1-0.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Providence is a 2.5 to 3 point favorite here and are at home where they were 13-4 on the season. Miami has a 5-6 road record. Providence has four players averaging 10 points or more and seven players averaging at least 8 points per game. Miami has two players averaging over 10 points per game and four players at over 8 points per game. Providence doesn’t have the greatest defense so I expect Jack McClinton will have a good game for Miami, but Miami’s defense isn’t good enough to stop all the scoring options for Providence. Miami will probably have a rebounding advantage, but it won’t be anywhere close to the +19 Morehead State had over Alabama State yesterday. Should be a close game, but I like Providence to prevail in the end.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
5) Venezuela lost to USA 15-6 before and then defeated them 5-3. Both teams are in the semi-finals already so this game will primarily determine seeding. The United States are low on relief pitchers tonight and so the advantage would appear to go to Venezuela.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
8) The last time these two teams played it was in Detroit and Artest outscored Prince 24 to 6. Now they’re playing in Houston, Detroit is coming off a loss at Dallas, and Houston’s defense is as good as it’s been all year. Artest is averaging 17.7 points in his last 10 games and Prince is averaging 17.9 points in his last 10. In their recent home/away games Artest is averaging 15.8 points and Prince is averaging 16.0 points. When the stats are this close I’ll go with the home player who won easily in their previous matchup.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
10) Idaho is at home and is a 1 point favorite. Idaho is 12-3 at home this season and Drake is 4-6 on the road this season. Idaho’s losses at home came against Washington State, Utah State, and Nevada. Drake has some fine non-conference wins, defeating Iowa (Big 10), Morehead State (playing Louisville in the first round of the NCAA Tournament), and New Mexico (Mountain West). Idaho has a win at home against Cal State-Northridge who is also in the NCAA Tournament. Statistically the two teams are well matched. So really Idaho at home would seem to be the best choice here but I will go with Drake on the road anyways.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
March 17th, 2009 Picks
A pretty good day at 2-1-0. Things started off well as Mainz defeated SV Wehen 2-0. Wehen had a penalty kick early on but Dimo Wache blocked it in an exciting moment. Wehen outshot Mainz 18 to 8 but most of theirs went over the goal. Mainz scored in the 1st half as well as in the final seconds of injury time in the 2nd half. Then the New Orleans Hornets put forth a sub-par effort, shooting under 40% as a team for the game. Dikembe Mutumbo filled in well for Yao Ming who was ill with the flu. Artest scored 18 points in the second half, while Tyson Chandler was sat with foul trouble for large portions of the game. James Posey was ineffective in his 30 or so minutes and Chris Pauls 29 point, 11 assist, 6 steal effort was not enough. Then I picked Cuba over Mexico as they were extremely heavy favorites to win the game. They ended up winning the game 7-4. So on to today’s exciting lineup of picks.
1) Institute @ Newry – Institute win
2) Hull City @ Arsenal – 4 goals or more
3) Davidson @ South Carolina – South Carolina
4) Buffalo Sabres @ Ottawa Senators – Ottawa
5) Morehead State vs. Alabama State – Morehead State
6) Washington Capitals @ Florida Panthers – Washington
7) Boston win margin vs. Dallas win margin – Boston win margin
8) UAB @ Notre Dame – 150 points or more
9) UNLV @ Kentucky – UNLV scores more three pointers
10) Philadelphia 76ers @ Los Angeles Lakers – 205 points or more
11) Washington State @ Saint Mary’s College – Washington State
Good luck finding those tacos tomorrow and enjoy your green beer and Irish car bombs =9!
Analysis
2) PaddyPower and other betting sites have a 1-0 Arsenal win as the most likely result at 5/1, followed by 3-0 Arsenal at 13/2, followed by 2-1 Arsenal at 15/2, then 2-0 Arsenal at 9/1, and 3-1 Arsenal at 10/1. I’ll be going with the many 3 or under results favored over 4 goals or more results.
UPDATE: It appears Fabianski, Arsenal’s backup goalie, is starting, as well as Arshavin, Walcott, and van Persie. Hull City is starting Boaz Myhill but he has conceded more goals per game than their backup Matt Duke. So I am going with the over here.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) Buffalo is 1-3-1 against Ottawa this season with the one victory coming in Buffalo. Both Lalime and Miller have losing records against Ottawa. The two teams last played on March 7th at Ottawa and the Senators won 6-3. Buffalo is 2-6-2 in their last 10 away games with two shootout losses, and Ottawa is 6-3-1 in their last 10 home games.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
5) Morehead State plays in the Ohio Valley Conference and Alabama State plays in the Southwest Athletic Conference. Morehead State is a team that likes to take the ball to the hoop over shooting jump shots. I have seen teams attempt to use a zone against them before and they were able to cut through it easily. Alabama State has a +1.2 rebounding margin and Morehead State has a +8.0 rebounding margin. I expect Morehead State will be scoring high percentage shots and getting offensive rebounds. Alabama State is a good shooting team at 47.1% on the season, but with fewer second chance points I would give the advantage to Morehead State.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
6) Florida is 2-2-0 against Washington this year, losing the sole home game and going 2-1-0 in Washington. Craig Anderson was in net for the two victories and Tomas Vokoun was in for the two losses. Washington is playing the second night of a back to back and Jose Theodore looks to be the goalie again after giving up four goals to the Thrashers last night. Since Vokoun appears to be in line to start for the Panthers I’ll go with Ovechkin and his crew even on a back-to-backer.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
8) UAB is a fast paced team who average over 56 shots per game. Notre Dame slowed down in Big East play a bit but they have averaged 64 shots per game over the season. Robert Vaden went 0 for 17 the last time UAB was featured on the Streak in a game against Memphis and I doubt that will happen again. On the other side Notre Dame has Luke Harangody and some large centers in Zeller and Hillesland. UAB has only one player weighing over 210 pounds and Harangody still has 15 pounds on him. They’ll have to pick their poison with whether to put a big body on Harangody or Zeller and either way Notre Dame should be able to score inside. Coupled with McAlarney and Ayers able to hit the three shot effectively and I can easily see either team trying to outscore the other. 170 points here wouldn’t surprise me, but if either team has a bad shooting night under 150 could easily occur.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) UNLV shoots just over 20 three point shots per game while Kentucky shoots just over 16. Both teams shoot threes at about 34.5%. Kentucky has Jodie Meeks taking over half of their three point shots and he is the only player averaging more than 1.0 three pointer made per game, with 3.3 makes. UNLV has four players averaging over 1.0 make per game in Darger, Adams, Willis, and Wallace. UNLV averages about 7.5 three pointers made per game and Kentucky averages 5.6. Of course, you never know if Meeks will make 10 and score 50 again.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
11) I’ve seen Saint Mary’s and Washington State play and I have to give the advantage to Washington State. Saint Mary’s likes to play at a faster pace while Washington State likes to play defense and slow the game down. Washington State nearly always imposes their game on their opponents with only California, Gonzaga, and UCLA able to score 70 points or more. Most of their opponents score under 60 points. I think Washington State will force Saint Mary’s to play their game and that will favor the Cougars’ chances of winning.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
1) Institute @ Newry – Institute win
2) Hull City @ Arsenal – 4 goals or more
3) Davidson @ South Carolina – South Carolina
4) Buffalo Sabres @ Ottawa Senators – Ottawa
5) Morehead State vs. Alabama State – Morehead State
6) Washington Capitals @ Florida Panthers – Washington
7) Boston win margin vs. Dallas win margin – Boston win margin
8) UAB @ Notre Dame – 150 points or more
9) UNLV @ Kentucky – UNLV scores more three pointers
10) Philadelphia 76ers @ Los Angeles Lakers – 205 points or more
11) Washington State @ Saint Mary’s College – Washington State
Good luck finding those tacos tomorrow and enjoy your green beer and Irish car bombs =9!
Analysis
2) PaddyPower and other betting sites have a 1-0 Arsenal win as the most likely result at 5/1, followed by 3-0 Arsenal at 13/2, followed by 2-1 Arsenal at 15/2, then 2-0 Arsenal at 9/1, and 3-1 Arsenal at 10/1. I’ll be going with the many 3 or under results favored over 4 goals or more results.
UPDATE: It appears Fabianski, Arsenal’s backup goalie, is starting, as well as Arshavin, Walcott, and van Persie. Hull City is starting Boaz Myhill but he has conceded more goals per game than their backup Matt Duke. So I am going with the over here.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) Buffalo is 1-3-1 against Ottawa this season with the one victory coming in Buffalo. Both Lalime and Miller have losing records against Ottawa. The two teams last played on March 7th at Ottawa and the Senators won 6-3. Buffalo is 2-6-2 in their last 10 away games with two shootout losses, and Ottawa is 6-3-1 in their last 10 home games.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
5) Morehead State plays in the Ohio Valley Conference and Alabama State plays in the Southwest Athletic Conference. Morehead State is a team that likes to take the ball to the hoop over shooting jump shots. I have seen teams attempt to use a zone against them before and they were able to cut through it easily. Alabama State has a +1.2 rebounding margin and Morehead State has a +8.0 rebounding margin. I expect Morehead State will be scoring high percentage shots and getting offensive rebounds. Alabama State is a good shooting team at 47.1% on the season, but with fewer second chance points I would give the advantage to Morehead State.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
6) Florida is 2-2-0 against Washington this year, losing the sole home game and going 2-1-0 in Washington. Craig Anderson was in net for the two victories and Tomas Vokoun was in for the two losses. Washington is playing the second night of a back to back and Jose Theodore looks to be the goalie again after giving up four goals to the Thrashers last night. Since Vokoun appears to be in line to start for the Panthers I’ll go with Ovechkin and his crew even on a back-to-backer.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
8) UAB is a fast paced team who average over 56 shots per game. Notre Dame slowed down in Big East play a bit but they have averaged 64 shots per game over the season. Robert Vaden went 0 for 17 the last time UAB was featured on the Streak in a game against Memphis and I doubt that will happen again. On the other side Notre Dame has Luke Harangody and some large centers in Zeller and Hillesland. UAB has only one player weighing over 210 pounds and Harangody still has 15 pounds on him. They’ll have to pick their poison with whether to put a big body on Harangody or Zeller and either way Notre Dame should be able to score inside. Coupled with McAlarney and Ayers able to hit the three shot effectively and I can easily see either team trying to outscore the other. 170 points here wouldn’t surprise me, but if either team has a bad shooting night under 150 could easily occur.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) UNLV shoots just over 20 three point shots per game while Kentucky shoots just over 16. Both teams shoot threes at about 34.5%. Kentucky has Jodie Meeks taking over half of their three point shots and he is the only player averaging more than 1.0 three pointer made per game, with 3.3 makes. UNLV has four players averaging over 1.0 make per game in Darger, Adams, Willis, and Wallace. UNLV averages about 7.5 three pointers made per game and Kentucky averages 5.6. Of course, you never know if Meeks will make 10 and score 50 again.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
11) I’ve seen Saint Mary’s and Washington State play and I have to give the advantage to Washington State. Saint Mary’s likes to play at a faster pace while Washington State likes to play defense and slow the game down. Washington State nearly always imposes their game on their opponents with only California, Gonzaga, and UCLA able to score 70 points or more. Most of their opponents score under 60 points. I think Washington State will force Saint Mary’s to play their game and that will favor the Cougars’ chances of winning.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
Monday, March 16, 2009
March 16th, 2009 Picks
Terrible day picking for me at 1-3-0 today. The NBA props killed me with Dirk Nowitzki scoring 3 points and grabbing 1 rebound in the second half. No wonder they are barely making the playoffs if that’s what they get out of their star player. Kobe was terrific, his shots were smooth as buttah no matter where he shot it from. Kobe wins with 28 points and 5 assists to Dirk’s 20 points and 5 rebounds. Stephen Jackson was off something fierce today, taking only four shots by the half. He picked up his second technical midway through the third and Shaq outscored him 26 to 10.
Torino was a big disappointment as well, as they took 10 shots with only two being on target and one rebounding off the post. I underestimated the impact Sergio Floccari would have on the game as he scored both goals for Atalanta. Atalanta returned to winning form and Torino fell into relegation as they lost at home 2-0. The only bright spot came when Duke played terrific, especially Scheyer, Henderson, and Singler who scored 70 of Duke’s 79 points. Duke led by more than 10 for the majority of the game while Tennessee lost to Mississippi State. And so we move on to another day and on to the picks.
1) Mainz @ SV Wehen – Mainz wins
2) James Blake vs. Fernando Gonzalez – Gonzalez
3) Washington Capitals @ Atlanta Thrashers – 5 goals or fewer
4) Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Hornets – New Orleans
5) Venezuela vs. Puerto Rico – Venezuela
6) Nashville Predators @ L.A. Kings – L.A. Kings
7) Cuba vs. Mexico – Cuba
Good luck all y’all!
Analysis
1) SV Wehen will be without defender Kristjan Glibo, and possibly without Dajan Stimic as well. Mainz will be at full strength. The last time these two clubs played Mainz was without starting midfielder Zsolt Löw and Wehen had Glibo missing. The match was at Mainz and the 05ers won 5-0. Of course I have been wrong on every soccer pick for a week now….
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) I’ll have to check and make sure but I think Lehtonen will be in net for Atlanta and Theodore will be in net for Washington. They have yet to face one another this season, with either one yielding no more than three goals to their opponent. I have a hunch one will yield no more than 2 and the other no more than 3.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
4) New Orleans suffered an 18 point loss at Chicago on Saturday on the second night of a back-to-back. Houston also lost Saturday, by 3 points to San Antonio. Both teams will be looking to rebound, but I think home court will be kind to the Hornets, and it will be easier for them to come back from a blowout loss than a close one like Houston did.
UPDATE: Wow, looks like Yao Ming is out for tonight with the flu.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
6) Looks like Ersberg will be the goalie tonight for the L.A. Kings. He has been the goalie for both of their losses to Nashville this year. Pekka Rinne has been stopping pucks like crazy for Nashville so I think they’ll win 2-1 or so, even though they’re on the road.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
Torino was a big disappointment as well, as they took 10 shots with only two being on target and one rebounding off the post. I underestimated the impact Sergio Floccari would have on the game as he scored both goals for Atalanta. Atalanta returned to winning form and Torino fell into relegation as they lost at home 2-0. The only bright spot came when Duke played terrific, especially Scheyer, Henderson, and Singler who scored 70 of Duke’s 79 points. Duke led by more than 10 for the majority of the game while Tennessee lost to Mississippi State. And so we move on to another day and on to the picks.
1) Mainz @ SV Wehen – Mainz wins
2) James Blake vs. Fernando Gonzalez – Gonzalez
3) Washington Capitals @ Atlanta Thrashers – 5 goals or fewer
4) Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Hornets – New Orleans
5) Venezuela vs. Puerto Rico – Venezuela
6) Nashville Predators @ L.A. Kings – L.A. Kings
7) Cuba vs. Mexico – Cuba
Good luck all y’all!
Analysis
1) SV Wehen will be without defender Kristjan Glibo, and possibly without Dajan Stimic as well. Mainz will be at full strength. The last time these two clubs played Mainz was without starting midfielder Zsolt Löw and Wehen had Glibo missing. The match was at Mainz and the 05ers won 5-0. Of course I have been wrong on every soccer pick for a week now….
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) I’ll have to check and make sure but I think Lehtonen will be in net for Atlanta and Theodore will be in net for Washington. They have yet to face one another this season, with either one yielding no more than three goals to their opponent. I have a hunch one will yield no more than 2 and the other no more than 3.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
4) New Orleans suffered an 18 point loss at Chicago on Saturday on the second night of a back-to-back. Houston also lost Saturday, by 3 points to San Antonio. Both teams will be looking to rebound, but I think home court will be kind to the Hornets, and it will be easier for them to come back from a blowout loss than a close one like Houston did.
UPDATE: Wow, looks like Yao Ming is out for tonight with the flu.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
6) Looks like Ersberg will be the goalie tonight for the L.A. Kings. He has been the goalie for both of their losses to Nashville this year. Pekka Rinne has been stopping pucks like crazy for Nashville so I think they’ll win 2-1 or so, even though they’re on the road.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
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