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Ach, mein Gott!! 1-2-1 for the day with 11 winners to choose from. I’d say unbelievable but I’ve done it before. That 6 OT game with Syracuse was incredible! Easily worth UCONN not covering Flynn’s assists. The NHL games were all close with two of them going to a shootout. Utah State had a ridiculous game from behind the arc. They were shooting 80% on threes at one point and finished 13 for 21. NC State was real disappointing to me as I thought they could have played better, but Maryland was more precise, better coached, and played more as a team. Then as I was watching the Lakers game the announcers let us know that Josh Powell played for NC State. Hahah, nice bit of unwanted synchronicity.
Terrific upsets going on with Baylor taking down Kansas, Oklahoma State beating Oklahoma, and West Virginia toppling Pittsburgh (sorry Keller). I probably should have picked against myself with UCONN after seeing how flat the other three double-bye Big East teams performed earlier in the day. And SGMB defeated me, soundly. Well I’m 8 off the monthly leader now so it’s lights out for me barring a few flawless days. Undaunted and on with the picks.
1) Lawrence Westbrook vs. Raymar Morgan – Morgan pts.
2) Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina – 155 points or less
3) Tiger Woods 2nd Round Score: 67 or less vs. 68 or more – 67 or less
4) Ohio State vs. Wisconsin – Wisconsin
5) Georgia Tech vs. Florida State – Georgia Tech
6) Mississippi State vs. South Carolina – Mississippi State
7) Leixoes @ Paços de Ferreira – Paços de Ferreira win
8) Detroit @ Toronto – Detroit
9) Scottie Reynolds vs. Earl Clark – Clark pts.
10) Arizona State vs. Washington – Arizona State
11) West Virginia vs. Syracuse – West Virginia
12) Taj Gibson vs. Josh Shipp – Gibson pts.
Analysis
1) Westbrook averages 12.4 on the season, Morgan averages 11.2. Raymar Morgan had a case of walking pneumonia and it looks like he just got over it at the beginning of this month. His past six games he has scored 3, 3, 4, 14, 14, and 7 points. Westbrook had four games in February in which he scored 4 points for no injury or health reason I can see. Morgan is a high percentage shooter scoring inside, Westbrook is a much better free throw shooter and from behind the arc. This is a tough prop with both players liable to score in single digits. Westbrook is the second leading scorer for Michigan State behind Kalin Lucas and Westbrook is the leading scorer for Minnesota.
UPDATE: In their previous matchup Westbrook outscored Morgan 11 to 10, but Travis Walton, a solid defensive player, was not in for Michigan State. In the second game Walton played and Westbrook scored 6 points. Raymar Morgan probably won’t have to score much to win here.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Ty Lawson will either not play for North Carolina or will play but be less than 100. Either way one would expect the Tarheel offense to be just a bit slower and a bit less efficient. The last game against Virginia Tech went over by 9 points mainly due to Virginia Tech fouling at the end in an attempt to get back into the game. If North Carolina is ahead by 10 or less than 4 in the final minute VIrginia Tech is doubtful to send them to the line quickly and constantly.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
4) Wisconsin won the lone regular season meeting against Ohio State 55-50. Ohio State shot 55.3 from the field and Wisconsin shot 36.4. Wisconsin was able to overcome that because they had 14 offensive rebounds to 3 for Ohio State and ended up shooting 13 more field goals than the Buckeyes. Ohio State had 19 turnovers to 9 for Wisconsin. I think the turnover margin will be smaller in this game but Wisconsin will probably have a similar advantage in rebounds and second-chance points. If Wisconsin shoots a better percentage, something close to 40, they should win here.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
9) Scottie Reynolds has been averaging 17.7 points in his last 10 games and Earl Clark has been averaging 16.8. Overall the stats look to favor Reynolds who is much more efficient at scoring at 1.43 points per shot compared to 1.16 for Clark. Terrence Williams will probably be looking to be more involved on offense and to score more which might mean fewer points for Clark. Reynolds scores most of his points on three pointers and free throws in many games. Louisville plays tough defense and won’t give up too many threes to Reynolds and I don’t see Reynolds getting to the line over and over again unless it’s that kind of game, in which case Clark could be expected to shoot many free throws as well. In their regular season meeting Clark outscored Reynolds 16 to 11. Reynolds was 0 for 2 from three point range.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
11) Syracuse played in a 70 minute 6-OT game against UCONN last night that ended at 1:22am EDT. West Virginia played a 1-3-1 zone against Pittsburgh and won, and now they’ll probably go back to a man-to-man defense to frustrate Syracuse’s ability to score the three ball and force the Orangemen to score in other ways. In their regular season matchup Syracuse scored almost at will by driving through the lane to score up close. West Virginia’s defense has been playing terrific lately and they will play more physically this time and test Syracuse’s ability to drive for layups. West Virginia did not shoot the ball well in the regular season game and I expect they will perform better this time around.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
12) Taj Gibson scored a meager 2 points in his most recent game against UCLA. Gibson went out at the beginning of the second half with a dislocated pinky in that game. The game was at UCLA and Shipp scored 19 points, 11 on free throws. I think USC will be better prepared for a UCLA pressure defense this time around. In their first game of the season Gibson outscored Shipp 13 to 10 even though he fouled out after 23 minutes of playing time while Shipp played 29 minutes. Shipp generally plays fewer minutes than Gibson (32.6 mins. vs. 36.4 mins. in their past 5 games.) Gibson is averaging 14.2 points in his last 10 games and Shipp is averaging 17.5.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
And So It Goes....
Friday, March 13, 2009
Thursday, March 12, 2009
March 12th, 2009 Picks
Bad day overall, 2-2-0 on my picks and the Jazz finally lost, at Atlanta. They came back from 13 down at the half, but couldn’t pull away when they got the lead. Providence and DePaul shot over 40% on 50 threes and ended up going over by 9. Baylor kicked Nebraska when they were down and won 65-49. Wesley Matthews played good defense on Paris Horne and had 11 points at the half, St. John’s had 10. Matthews and Marquette won, Matthews 20-15. Dwight Thorne II had 15 points and Colorado never let Texas run away with things, losing by 11. Ronaldo scored Manchester United’s second goal and Inter Milan was shut out completely. Barcelona and Lyons had 5 goals in the first half, and Barcelona won 5-2. Cabrera hit a double and Wright batted .000.
Oklahoma State gave Iowa State a quick layup at the end of a blowout, putting the game over at 148 total points. West Virginia played good defense, McAlarney and Ayers got hot in the second half and ended up with 7 threes between them, but the Mountaineers finished the game up by 12. Kobe Bryant scored 37 points behind 60% shooting on 23 attempts. Mount Saint Mary’s had their worst shooting game from behind the arc of the season by far, shooting 8.3% and making one of 12 free throws. Robert Morris had 4 threes. Vancouver rallied to send their game into overtime but Anaheim won in the extra period 4-3. Finally, Oregon and Washington State both went cold down the stretch and ended up scoring 102 points combined. So on to the picks then, eh?
1) Tiger Woods’ 1st Round Score: 68 or under vs. 69 or over – 69 or over
2) Miami(FL) vs. Virginia Tech – Virginia Tech
3) Sharaud Curry vs. Terrence Williams – Williams pts.
4) Shakhtar Donetsk @ CSKA Moscow – CSKA Moscow wins
5) Iowa vs. Michigan – 119 points or less
6) Marquette vs. Villanova – Villanova
7) Indiana vs. Penn State – 123 points or less
8) Fresno State vs. Utah State – Utah State scores more threes
9) Washington Capitals @ Philadelphia Flyers – Philadelphia
10) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Columbus Blue Jackets – Pittsburgh
11) North Carolina State vs. Maryland – North Carolina State
12) Devin Ebanks reb. vs. Pittsburgh win margin – Ebanks reb.
13) Vanderbilt vs. Alabama – Alabama
14) Los Angeles Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs – San Antonio
15) Minnesota Wild @ Colorado Avalanche – Colorado
16) California vs. USC – USC
17) Jonny Flynn ast. vs. Connecticut win margin – Connecticut win margin
18) Cleveland @ Phoenix – Phoenix
A loooot of matchups today, any of us should be able to pick 4 or 5 winners out of this yea? If only it were that easy. I’ve got Terrence Williams in the morning, Sharaud Curry has had two good games from behind the arc in a row and for him to shoot as well for a third straight game would be a first for him. I just hope this Williams having the flu recently rumor ends up not affecting his game. Good luck everybody!
Analysis
3) Sharaud Curry has been playing extremely well lately, averaging 16.2 points in his last 10 games at 1.54 points per shot. Terrence Williams, on the other hand, has only been averaging 12.9 in his last 10 at 1.25 points per shot. That average includes three games where he was recovering from a sore wrist, including one game in which he scored zero points and took zero shots. Discounting those games he has been averaging 17.3 points at 1.40 points per shot. In their regular season meeting Curry scored 15 and Williams scored 17. Curry has not had consecutive 20+ point games this season. Louisville usually plays strong defense and usually score easy points in transition. I think Curry will score around 15 again, but Williams will have an easier time scoring 20.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
5) Iowa and Michigan scored 113 points in their regular season game at Michigan, and 130 points in overtime when they played at Iowa. They had scored 112 points by the end of regulation. Washington State plays at a slow pace, averaging around 50 field goal attempts per game. Iowa is positively lethargic then averaging 46 attempts per game. The two teams combine to average 48 three point attempts per game which would favor the over since they are both moderate three point shooting teams, with Iowa shooting 36.7% and Michigan shooting 32.9. They shot 39 and 52 threes in scoring 113 and 112 points during the regular season. They have shot fewer free throws than average when they’ve played each other.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
6) Marquette lost to Villanova at Villanova by 18, and defeated them by 7 at home. For both of those games Dominic James was playing for the Golden Eagles. Villanova has Dante Cunningham, Dwayne Anderson, Reggie Redding, Scottie Reynolds, and the Coreys to counter Jerel McNeal, Wesley Matthews, Lazar Hayward, and Maurice Acker. If one team has a player with a career game and the other team has all their players just going average the team with the career game will win. Without Dominic James, and with both teams having good games from their players I think Villanova wins.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
8) Fresno State averages 20.6 three point attempts and 7.2 makes per game. Utah State takes 15.9 three pointers per game and makes 6.2 of them. Utah State shoots 39.2 on threes as a team, while Fresno State shoots 34.8. Fresno has 5 players averaging about 1.0 three per game or more, Utah State has only 2. In their first 9 conference games Utah State attempted 20+ threes just once, but have shot over 20 threes 3 times in their last 7 conference games, including their last two games of the season. In their first game of the season Fresno State made 5 threes and Utah State made 7. In their second game Fresno State made 9 and Utah State made 4. I think Utah State will shoot more than average and Fresno State will have a poor % from behind the arc tonight.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) Philadelphia is 2-0-1 against Washington this year, with Nittymaki in net for the two victories and Biron in net for a shootout loss. They have split two games in Washington and the Flyers won 7-1 when they played in Philadelphia. Brent Johnson was in net for that loss, and Jose Theodore was in for the home games they split. Ovechkin played in all three games. Theodore and Biron are expected to be in tonight. Washington is 16-12-4 on the road and Philadelphia is 20-9-4 at home.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
11) In their regular season game North Carolina State was down by two with 6:53 remaining. They lost by 11 due to Greivis Vasquez making a three point shot with two seconds left. Maryland shot 47.6 on three pointers in that game, while the Wolfpack shot 26.3. Overall North Carolina State is ranked 86th in three point defense and Maryland is ranked 237th, so I would expect North Carolina State to shoot the higher percentage this time around. Maryland had 8 turnovers to 16 for the Wolfpack during the regular season. That is 4.5 below Maryland’s season average and 1.5 above North Carolina State’s season average. Landon Milbourne fouled out in 19 minutes against the Wolfpack earlier, so I think he’ll contribute more for Maryland this time. Maryland is a 1.5 point favorite. It should be a close game, but I think North Carolina State ends up winning by 3 or 4.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
15) Colorado is 1-3-0 against Minnesota this season, and 3-7-0 in their last 10 games overall. Minnesota is 4-4-2 in their last 10. Niklas Backstrom has a GAA of 3.50 in his last four starts. Minnesota would certainly be favored to win, but I like Colorado at home.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
17) Jonny Flynn averages 6.4 assists on the season and 7.9 in his last 10 games. Flynn has double digit assists in 4 of his 32 games, 12.5 of them, with those four games being against Georgetown, DePaul, Seton Hall, and Coppin State. Against the top 4 in the Big East Flynn has had 7, 6, 4, and 3 assists. Flynn had 3 assists in Syracuse’s regular season game against Connecticut. Connecticut is a 3.5 point favorite at the start of the day.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
18) Phoenix is on their longest losing streak of the year at five straight losses. Cleveland struggled to beat a the Los Angeles Clippers two nights ago, though in their defense the Clippers were at full strength for the first time this season. Cleveland beat Phoenix by 17 in Cleveland behind a strong night from Mo Williams who scored 44 points and made 7 of 9 three pointers. I don’t think Williams plays that well again. LeBron should have another great game and unless Nash and Shaq play terrific Phoenix can expect another loss.
Confidence: W1 or less
Oklahoma State gave Iowa State a quick layup at the end of a blowout, putting the game over at 148 total points. West Virginia played good defense, McAlarney and Ayers got hot in the second half and ended up with 7 threes between them, but the Mountaineers finished the game up by 12. Kobe Bryant scored 37 points behind 60% shooting on 23 attempts. Mount Saint Mary’s had their worst shooting game from behind the arc of the season by far, shooting 8.3% and making one of 12 free throws. Robert Morris had 4 threes. Vancouver rallied to send their game into overtime but Anaheim won in the extra period 4-3. Finally, Oregon and Washington State both went cold down the stretch and ended up scoring 102 points combined. So on to the picks then, eh?
1) Tiger Woods’ 1st Round Score: 68 or under vs. 69 or over – 69 or over
2) Miami(FL) vs. Virginia Tech – Virginia Tech
3) Sharaud Curry vs. Terrence Williams – Williams pts.
4) Shakhtar Donetsk @ CSKA Moscow – CSKA Moscow wins
5) Iowa vs. Michigan – 119 points or less
6) Marquette vs. Villanova – Villanova
7) Indiana vs. Penn State – 123 points or less
8) Fresno State vs. Utah State – Utah State scores more threes
9) Washington Capitals @ Philadelphia Flyers – Philadelphia
10) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Columbus Blue Jackets – Pittsburgh
11) North Carolina State vs. Maryland – North Carolina State
12) Devin Ebanks reb. vs. Pittsburgh win margin – Ebanks reb.
13) Vanderbilt vs. Alabama – Alabama
14) Los Angeles Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs – San Antonio
15) Minnesota Wild @ Colorado Avalanche – Colorado
16) California vs. USC – USC
17) Jonny Flynn ast. vs. Connecticut win margin – Connecticut win margin
18) Cleveland @ Phoenix – Phoenix
A loooot of matchups today, any of us should be able to pick 4 or 5 winners out of this yea? If only it were that easy. I’ve got Terrence Williams in the morning, Sharaud Curry has had two good games from behind the arc in a row and for him to shoot as well for a third straight game would be a first for him. I just hope this Williams having the flu recently rumor ends up not affecting his game. Good luck everybody!
Analysis
3) Sharaud Curry has been playing extremely well lately, averaging 16.2 points in his last 10 games at 1.54 points per shot. Terrence Williams, on the other hand, has only been averaging 12.9 in his last 10 at 1.25 points per shot. That average includes three games where he was recovering from a sore wrist, including one game in which he scored zero points and took zero shots. Discounting those games he has been averaging 17.3 points at 1.40 points per shot. In their regular season meeting Curry scored 15 and Williams scored 17. Curry has not had consecutive 20+ point games this season. Louisville usually plays strong defense and usually score easy points in transition. I think Curry will score around 15 again, but Williams will have an easier time scoring 20.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
5) Iowa and Michigan scored 113 points in their regular season game at Michigan, and 130 points in overtime when they played at Iowa. They had scored 112 points by the end of regulation. Washington State plays at a slow pace, averaging around 50 field goal attempts per game. Iowa is positively lethargic then averaging 46 attempts per game. The two teams combine to average 48 three point attempts per game which would favor the over since they are both moderate three point shooting teams, with Iowa shooting 36.7% and Michigan shooting 32.9. They shot 39 and 52 threes in scoring 113 and 112 points during the regular season. They have shot fewer free throws than average when they’ve played each other.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
6) Marquette lost to Villanova at Villanova by 18, and defeated them by 7 at home. For both of those games Dominic James was playing for the Golden Eagles. Villanova has Dante Cunningham, Dwayne Anderson, Reggie Redding, Scottie Reynolds, and the Coreys to counter Jerel McNeal, Wesley Matthews, Lazar Hayward, and Maurice Acker. If one team has a player with a career game and the other team has all their players just going average the team with the career game will win. Without Dominic James, and with both teams having good games from their players I think Villanova wins.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
8) Fresno State averages 20.6 three point attempts and 7.2 makes per game. Utah State takes 15.9 three pointers per game and makes 6.2 of them. Utah State shoots 39.2 on threes as a team, while Fresno State shoots 34.8. Fresno has 5 players averaging about 1.0 three per game or more, Utah State has only 2. In their first 9 conference games Utah State attempted 20+ threes just once, but have shot over 20 threes 3 times in their last 7 conference games, including their last two games of the season. In their first game of the season Fresno State made 5 threes and Utah State made 7. In their second game Fresno State made 9 and Utah State made 4. I think Utah State will shoot more than average and Fresno State will have a poor % from behind the arc tonight.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) Philadelphia is 2-0-1 against Washington this year, with Nittymaki in net for the two victories and Biron in net for a shootout loss. They have split two games in Washington and the Flyers won 7-1 when they played in Philadelphia. Brent Johnson was in net for that loss, and Jose Theodore was in for the home games they split. Ovechkin played in all three games. Theodore and Biron are expected to be in tonight. Washington is 16-12-4 on the road and Philadelphia is 20-9-4 at home.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
11) In their regular season game North Carolina State was down by two with 6:53 remaining. They lost by 11 due to Greivis Vasquez making a three point shot with two seconds left. Maryland shot 47.6 on three pointers in that game, while the Wolfpack shot 26.3. Overall North Carolina State is ranked 86th in three point defense and Maryland is ranked 237th, so I would expect North Carolina State to shoot the higher percentage this time around. Maryland had 8 turnovers to 16 for the Wolfpack during the regular season. That is 4.5 below Maryland’s season average and 1.5 above North Carolina State’s season average. Landon Milbourne fouled out in 19 minutes against the Wolfpack earlier, so I think he’ll contribute more for Maryland this time. Maryland is a 1.5 point favorite. It should be a close game, but I think North Carolina State ends up winning by 3 or 4.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
15) Colorado is 1-3-0 against Minnesota this season, and 3-7-0 in their last 10 games overall. Minnesota is 4-4-2 in their last 10. Niklas Backstrom has a GAA of 3.50 in his last four starts. Minnesota would certainly be favored to win, but I like Colorado at home.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
17) Jonny Flynn averages 6.4 assists on the season and 7.9 in his last 10 games. Flynn has double digit assists in 4 of his 32 games, 12.5 of them, with those four games being against Georgetown, DePaul, Seton Hall, and Coppin State. Against the top 4 in the Big East Flynn has had 7, 6, 4, and 3 assists. Flynn had 3 assists in Syracuse’s regular season game against Connecticut. Connecticut is a 3.5 point favorite at the start of the day.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
18) Phoenix is on their longest losing streak of the year at five straight losses. Cleveland struggled to beat a the Los Angeles Clippers two nights ago, though in their defense the Clippers were at full strength for the first time this season. Cleveland beat Phoenix by 17 in Cleveland behind a strong night from Mo Williams who scored 44 points and made 7 of 9 three pointers. I don’t think Williams plays that well again. LeBron should have another great game and unless Nash and Shaq play terrific Phoenix can expect another loss.
Confidence: W1 or less
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
March 11th, 2009 Picks
Well 3-1-0 day yesterday, and the Jazz won in Indiana so pretty sweet day overall. Utah plays in Atlanta tonight, and it would be surprising to me if they got their 13th straight win. Anyways, DePaul upset Cincinnati and they stopped fouling and scoring just in the nick of time to go under. Summers had foul trouble early and Horne won by bunches, Real Madrid looked like a team that had been relegated once or twice as Liverpool won the match 4-0, Bayern Munich put down more of the same in winning 7-1 of Sporting Lisbon, and Rutgers and Notre Dame had trouble scoring most of the game with 111 total points.
The Capitals came back to beat Nashville 2-1 in overtime, the Knicks and Larry Hughes especially played well enough to beat Milwaukee, and North Dakota State won by virtue of having the greater three point percentage. St. Louis held a 3 goal lead over Dallas and won 5-2, Butler and Cleveland State turned up the pressure early and scored only 111, and Slaughter scored more regularly throughout the game in a winning effort against South Alabama and Tilford. Hawaii could only play their game for about 25 minutes and used the last 15 minutes to slip and fall with Fresno State winning by four. So on the picks already, naja?
1) DePaul vs. Providence – 147 points or fewer
2) Baylor vs. Nebraska – Nebraska
3) Paris Horne vs. Wesley Matthews – Matthews pts.
4) Dwight Thorne II points vs. Texas winning margin – Thorne II pts.
5) Inter Milan team goals vs. Rooney and Ronaldo goals – Inter Milan team goals
6) Lyon @ Barcelona – 2 goals or fewer
7) Miguel Cabrera vs. David Wright – Cabrera records more total bases
8) Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State – 147 points or more
9) West Virginia win margin vs. Ayers and McAlarney threes – West Virginia win margin
10) Kobe Bryant pts. @ Houston: 29 or less vs. 30 or more – 29 or less
11) Mount St. Mary’s vs. Robert Morris – Mount St. Mary’s scores more threes
12) Vancouver Canucks @ Anaheim Ducks – Vancouver
13) Oregon vs. Washington State – 123 points or more
Analysis
1) Not really going on much here except that Providence and DePaul combined for 116 points the last time they played. DePaul had a pretty bad shooting night in that game, but the Friars shot around 40% on field goals, over 33% on threes and 5 of 10 on free throws. The game went under because of the small number of possessions, however, not because of remarkly abysmal shooting. Unless DePaul gets drawn into playing much faster than they have all season, this should go under, as both teams would have to shoot 55%-60% on an ‘average’ number of possessions to go over.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
3) Matthews wasn’t needed to score much against St. John’s earlier in the season, but now that Dominic James is hurt they’ll need Matthews to score as much as ever. The Marquette defense should do a good job of disrupting Paris Horne who is already a fairly low percentage shooter compared to many scorers. Matthews shoots 12.2 field goals per game lately, Horne shoots 14.3. Matthews averages 1.63 points per shot, and Horne averages 1.18. Horne won this prop in the regular season 23-9, but he shot 60% on threes and over 50% from the field, which he has not been able to do often.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
4) This is a risky pick to take, but Dwight Thorne II, being a 41% three point shooter and 48.6% from the field has the capability to put a lot of points up. He’s been struggling lately, taking no more than 6 shots in his last four games. He will score around ten points most likely, but could score over 25. Texas is favored by 14 points. How many conference tournament games have been blowouts?
Confidence: W1 or less
8) Iowa State and Oklahoma State are fairly fast paced teams for the Big 12, Iowa averaging 54 shots per game and Oklahoma State averaging 59 shots. Combined the two average 45 three point attempts, and 17 three pointers scored and about 28 free throws made. They would have to make 50% of their remaining field goals to go over. In their previous game they scored 153 despite taking fewer field goals. They shot 45 free throws and 44 three pointers, and that is what put them over. In conference Iowa State’s games have gone over 4 of 16 times, and Oklahoma State’s games have gone over 11 of 16 times.
Confidence: W2 or less
9) West Virginia plays a tough man to man defense. That should make it difficult for Notre Dame to find a man open by passing the ball around the top of the key or by driving inside and then kicking the ball back out. In previous Big East games Notre Dame have been reluctant to shoot three pointers when they are covered, McAlarney in particular. I think Notre Dame will need to win the game outright for Ayers and McAlarney to win this prop, and they definitely could, but I think West Virginia will rebound from the loss to Louisville and win fairly easily.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
10) Kobe Bryant can be a deadly shooter and when he gets hot there is nobody in the league that can stop him. Still, after winning so many games with the Lakers by getting his teammates involved in offense, and after losing so badly to Portland after taking 28 shots (and scoring under 30) I can see Kobe limiting his role on offense for this game. The Houston Rockets will have Artest guarding Bryant and are one of the toughest teams on defense in the NBA. Barring an MVP performance from Kobe I think he will score under 30.
UPDATE: OK, my mistake. Shane Battier is the primary defender on Kobe. Battier is no slouch, however, and I would expect Artest to play some help defense on Kobe, or to switch on to him on screens. I still like 29 points or less.
UPDATE2: Odom will be out with suspension but his backup, Josh Powell, has outscored Odom in three of their past five games and in fewer minutes. I think he will more than make up for Odom’s absence.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
11) So Robert Morris has Mount St. Mary’s beat in every category of stat one might look at to choose this kind of prop. They shoot a higher percentage of threes, they take more threes, so not surprisingly they make more threes, and they have more high percentage (over 39%) three point shooters than Mount St. Mary’s does. So it was kind of weird when I saw Robert Morris had lost this prop to them both times they’d played earlier in the year. In a close game that Robert Morris eventually won they took only four threes and made 2 while Mount St. Mary’s made 3 of 10. In the other game Robert Morris also won the game but lost the prop 6 to 3. Robert Morris made 3 of 8 threes when they were losing and 0 of 3 threes after they had the lead. Mount St. Mary’s was shooting threes whether or not they had the lead and ended up shooting 16 threes. Robert Morris has shot many threes against other teams with the lead, maybe Mount St. Mary’s has a difficult time stopping Robert Morris’ interior scoring.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
13) Oregon and Washington State combined for 105 points in their regular season game at Washington State. Oregon had 18 minutes in which they scored zero points. I don’t think Oregon will remain scoreless for nearly a half in this game. In their game at Oregon they combined for 136 points and Oregon only had three completely flat minutes.
Confidence: W4 or less
The Capitals came back to beat Nashville 2-1 in overtime, the Knicks and Larry Hughes especially played well enough to beat Milwaukee, and North Dakota State won by virtue of having the greater three point percentage. St. Louis held a 3 goal lead over Dallas and won 5-2, Butler and Cleveland State turned up the pressure early and scored only 111, and Slaughter scored more regularly throughout the game in a winning effort against South Alabama and Tilford. Hawaii could only play their game for about 25 minutes and used the last 15 minutes to slip and fall with Fresno State winning by four. So on the picks already, naja?
1) DePaul vs. Providence – 147 points or fewer
2) Baylor vs. Nebraska – Nebraska
3) Paris Horne vs. Wesley Matthews – Matthews pts.
4) Dwight Thorne II points vs. Texas winning margin – Thorne II pts.
5) Inter Milan team goals vs. Rooney and Ronaldo goals – Inter Milan team goals
6) Lyon @ Barcelona – 2 goals or fewer
7) Miguel Cabrera vs. David Wright – Cabrera records more total bases
8) Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State – 147 points or more
9) West Virginia win margin vs. Ayers and McAlarney threes – West Virginia win margin
10) Kobe Bryant pts. @ Houston: 29 or less vs. 30 or more – 29 or less
11) Mount St. Mary’s vs. Robert Morris – Mount St. Mary’s scores more threes
12) Vancouver Canucks @ Anaheim Ducks – Vancouver
13) Oregon vs. Washington State – 123 points or more
Analysis
1) Not really going on much here except that Providence and DePaul combined for 116 points the last time they played. DePaul had a pretty bad shooting night in that game, but the Friars shot around 40% on field goals, over 33% on threes and 5 of 10 on free throws. The game went under because of the small number of possessions, however, not because of remarkly abysmal shooting. Unless DePaul gets drawn into playing much faster than they have all season, this should go under, as both teams would have to shoot 55%-60% on an ‘average’ number of possessions to go over.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
3) Matthews wasn’t needed to score much against St. John’s earlier in the season, but now that Dominic James is hurt they’ll need Matthews to score as much as ever. The Marquette defense should do a good job of disrupting Paris Horne who is already a fairly low percentage shooter compared to many scorers. Matthews shoots 12.2 field goals per game lately, Horne shoots 14.3. Matthews averages 1.63 points per shot, and Horne averages 1.18. Horne won this prop in the regular season 23-9, but he shot 60% on threes and over 50% from the field, which he has not been able to do often.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
4) This is a risky pick to take, but Dwight Thorne II, being a 41% three point shooter and 48.6% from the field has the capability to put a lot of points up. He’s been struggling lately, taking no more than 6 shots in his last four games. He will score around ten points most likely, but could score over 25. Texas is favored by 14 points. How many conference tournament games have been blowouts?
Confidence: W1 or less
8) Iowa State and Oklahoma State are fairly fast paced teams for the Big 12, Iowa averaging 54 shots per game and Oklahoma State averaging 59 shots. Combined the two average 45 three point attempts, and 17 three pointers scored and about 28 free throws made. They would have to make 50% of their remaining field goals to go over. In their previous game they scored 153 despite taking fewer field goals. They shot 45 free throws and 44 three pointers, and that is what put them over. In conference Iowa State’s games have gone over 4 of 16 times, and Oklahoma State’s games have gone over 11 of 16 times.
Confidence: W2 or less
9) West Virginia plays a tough man to man defense. That should make it difficult for Notre Dame to find a man open by passing the ball around the top of the key or by driving inside and then kicking the ball back out. In previous Big East games Notre Dame have been reluctant to shoot three pointers when they are covered, McAlarney in particular. I think Notre Dame will need to win the game outright for Ayers and McAlarney to win this prop, and they definitely could, but I think West Virginia will rebound from the loss to Louisville and win fairly easily.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
10) Kobe Bryant can be a deadly shooter and when he gets hot there is nobody in the league that can stop him. Still, after winning so many games with the Lakers by getting his teammates involved in offense, and after losing so badly to Portland after taking 28 shots (and scoring under 30) I can see Kobe limiting his role on offense for this game. The Houston Rockets will have Artest guarding Bryant and are one of the toughest teams on defense in the NBA. Barring an MVP performance from Kobe I think he will score under 30.
UPDATE: OK, my mistake. Shane Battier is the primary defender on Kobe. Battier is no slouch, however, and I would expect Artest to play some help defense on Kobe, or to switch on to him on screens. I still like 29 points or less.
UPDATE2: Odom will be out with suspension but his backup, Josh Powell, has outscored Odom in three of their past five games and in fewer minutes. I think he will more than make up for Odom’s absence.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
11) So Robert Morris has Mount St. Mary’s beat in every category of stat one might look at to choose this kind of prop. They shoot a higher percentage of threes, they take more threes, so not surprisingly they make more threes, and they have more high percentage (over 39%) three point shooters than Mount St. Mary’s does. So it was kind of weird when I saw Robert Morris had lost this prop to them both times they’d played earlier in the year. In a close game that Robert Morris eventually won they took only four threes and made 2 while Mount St. Mary’s made 3 of 10. In the other game Robert Morris also won the game but lost the prop 6 to 3. Robert Morris made 3 of 8 threes when they were losing and 0 of 3 threes after they had the lead. Mount St. Mary’s was shooting threes whether or not they had the lead and ended up shooting 16 threes. Robert Morris has shot many threes against other teams with the lead, maybe Mount St. Mary’s has a difficult time stopping Robert Morris’ interior scoring.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
13) Oregon and Washington State combined for 105 points in their regular season game at Washington State. Oregon had 18 minutes in which they scored zero points. I don’t think Oregon will remain scoreless for nearly a half in this game. In their game at Oregon they combined for 136 points and Oregon only had three completely flat minutes.
Confidence: W4 or less
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
March 10th, 2009 Picks
A much better day overall, 3-1-0. Things started out rough with Vejle going up on AGF Aarhus 1-0 at the half. Aarhus decided to be mean and rub it in by making things close with a late goal while proceeding to miss easy shots on the way. At one point the goalie for Vejle was out of position and Nando Rafael had a shot at an open net from inside the box, but he managed to loft it up and over the goal, d’oh! So I went with women’s college basketball from there. There were 41 turnovers combined after 25 minutes of play so I don’t think I’ll be watching much women’s basketball soon. Oh yea, Charlotte won.
Justin Morneau won easily, I took Carolina over the Rangers, the Hawks, being the more talented team, of course beat New Orleans. Then Charleston gave up 20 straight points to UTC after being tied at the half and lost, the Pistons toughed out a win after Rasheed went out with a calf injury in the 1st, and Niagara couldn’t quite find the energy to come back and beat Siena. St. Mary’s and Gonzaga scored 141, the Trailblazers humiliated the Lakers, I took South Alabama for another win, and the Kings triumphed over Luongo and the ‘Nucks. I guess Vancouver is never a good pick when they’re on a four game winning streak. =D So on to the picks!
1) DePaul vs. Cincinnati – 129 points or fewer
2) DaJuan Summers vs. Paris Horne – Horne pts.
3) Real Madrid @ Liverpool – Real Madrid win or draw
4) Sporting Lisbon @ Bayern Munich – 3 goals or more
5) Notre Dame vs. Rutgers – 142 points or more
6) Washington Capitals @ Nashville Predators – Washington
7) New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks – New York
8) Oakland vs North Dakota State – North Dakota State scores more threes
9) Dallas Stars @ St. Louis Blues – St. Louis
10) Cleveland State vs. Butler – 124 points or fewer
11) Dominic Tilford vs. A.J. Slaughter – Tilford pts.
12) Fresno State vs. Hawaii – Hawaii
I think I may actually go with the first two college bball games and leave soccer alone for once. Definitely avoiding soccer today, for the new ones #5, #8, #11 I’ll have to confirm my choice since I just looked at a couple stats real quickly for those. OK, now it’s mostly just the NDSU game I feel is a tossup. Good luck y’all!
Analysis
1) OK, these teams scored 114 points last time they played. At first I thought maybe one or both of them just had a bad game. Looking at DePaul and Cincinnati’s schedules I noticed something. DePaul, Cincinnati, Georgetown, and Seton Hall all happen to have ‘bad’ games when they play each other. There have been seven Big East regular season games pitting two of these teams against each other. Six of them have been under: 114, 88, 121, 110, 118, and 125 points. In the one game that went over Cincinnati and Seton Hall scored 130 points and that was only because it went into overtime. I don’t claim to know what’s going on, or why these teams have trouble scoring on one another, but I’m going under.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
3) There will be a some non-starters playing for each side and very likely some true reserves, including the goalie for Lisbon. Reserves in this case means youngsters who play for a ‘minor league’ squad as a stepping stone to making the actual team. Sporting Lisbon figures they won’t advance to the next round but they do want to win the match. Both teams have pride on the line so both teams will have more starters than not on the field.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
5) Notre Dame 70, Rutgers 65. That’s 7 points short of the over for today’s current matchup. In the previous game the Fightin’ Irish came out struggling, scoring only 27 points in the first half. They fed the ball to Luke Harangody constantly, who ended up taking just over 40% of all of Notre Dame’s field goal attempts. Ryan Ayers went 0 for 6 from the field, Hillesland didn’t even take a shot. Rutgers played similarly with three players taking almost all their shots. I think Notre Dame spreads the scoring around more evenly and that should open things up for the other scorers. I can still see this going under, however, with the Irish focusing a bit more on defense lately.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
6) It looks like Pekka Rinne has a case of the flu and so Dan Ellis will be starting for the Predators. Even though Ellis is not a bad goalie he has only 11 wins in 33 starts, and a lower save percentage than Rinne. Ovechkin and the Capitals should be able to take advantage, especially on power plays. Ellis is 5-8 at home, so while he may be playing tougher opponents at home the Predators clearly have a better winning percentage win Rinne is the goalie.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
7) Well, I like New York here because Francisco Elson and Charlie Villanueva will have a hard time preventing David Lee from racking up boards and points. Milwaukee has not beaten the Knicks since Redd and Bogut went down. Milwaukee was in better playoff position before Redd and Bogut were injured and as it stands have four teams less than two games behind them, with most of them having more games to play and thus more chances to earn wins. I like Milwaukee because Duhon, Chandler, and Robinson have all been struggling lately. If the Knicks are firing on all cylinders they should crush Milwaukee, but they haven’t. If Charlie Bell, Villanueva, Sessions, and Jefferson all have average games against a struggling Knicks team they should win easily. I’ll go with New York in the end, they’re due for a good showing.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) I think the Streakmaster was looking at Butler vs. Wright State or something when he set the line on this. In his ‘Game Blog’ he states they have scored 120 and 125 points in their last two matchups, but really they’ve scored 114 and 98 points. I expect the point total to change before the matchup locks, but it will have to go way down. Butler plays some seriously aggressive defense.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
10) Hawaii won at home against Fresno State by 26 points and again in Fresno by 4 points. In the home game Hawaii out rebounded the Bulldogs 43 to 20. In Fresno the Warriors out rebounded them 36 to 23. Fresno State will be basically giving Hawaii at least 6 points on tip-in shots. Fresno isn’t an 8 point favorite (some books have Hawaii -1, some Fresno -1 and most have it even). Fresno averages 43.8% on field goals, 67.1% from the line, and 34.4% from three so I don’t see them out-shooting a Hawaii team has taken an average of 8 more field goals than Fresno in each game. Fresno State’s biggest hope is to force more turnovers than they give and shoot well from the field.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
Justin Morneau won easily, I took Carolina over the Rangers, the Hawks, being the more talented team, of course beat New Orleans. Then Charleston gave up 20 straight points to UTC after being tied at the half and lost, the Pistons toughed out a win after Rasheed went out with a calf injury in the 1st, and Niagara couldn’t quite find the energy to come back and beat Siena. St. Mary’s and Gonzaga scored 141, the Trailblazers humiliated the Lakers, I took South Alabama for another win, and the Kings triumphed over Luongo and the ‘Nucks. I guess Vancouver is never a good pick when they’re on a four game winning streak. =D So on to the picks!
1) DePaul vs. Cincinnati – 129 points or fewer
2) DaJuan Summers vs. Paris Horne – Horne pts.
3) Real Madrid @ Liverpool – Real Madrid win or draw
4) Sporting Lisbon @ Bayern Munich – 3 goals or more
5) Notre Dame vs. Rutgers – 142 points or more
6) Washington Capitals @ Nashville Predators – Washington
7) New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks – New York
8) Oakland vs North Dakota State – North Dakota State scores more threes
9) Dallas Stars @ St. Louis Blues – St. Louis
10) Cleveland State vs. Butler – 124 points or fewer
11) Dominic Tilford vs. A.J. Slaughter – Tilford pts.
12) Fresno State vs. Hawaii – Hawaii
I think I may actually go with the first two college bball games and leave soccer alone for once. Definitely avoiding soccer today, for the new ones #5, #8, #11 I’ll have to confirm my choice since I just looked at a couple stats real quickly for those. OK, now it’s mostly just the NDSU game I feel is a tossup. Good luck y’all!
Analysis
1) OK, these teams scored 114 points last time they played. At first I thought maybe one or both of them just had a bad game. Looking at DePaul and Cincinnati’s schedules I noticed something. DePaul, Cincinnati, Georgetown, and Seton Hall all happen to have ‘bad’ games when they play each other. There have been seven Big East regular season games pitting two of these teams against each other. Six of them have been under: 114, 88, 121, 110, 118, and 125 points. In the one game that went over Cincinnati and Seton Hall scored 130 points and that was only because it went into overtime. I don’t claim to know what’s going on, or why these teams have trouble scoring on one another, but I’m going under.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
3) There will be a some non-starters playing for each side and very likely some true reserves, including the goalie for Lisbon. Reserves in this case means youngsters who play for a ‘minor league’ squad as a stepping stone to making the actual team. Sporting Lisbon figures they won’t advance to the next round but they do want to win the match. Both teams have pride on the line so both teams will have more starters than not on the field.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
5) Notre Dame 70, Rutgers 65. That’s 7 points short of the over for today’s current matchup. In the previous game the Fightin’ Irish came out struggling, scoring only 27 points in the first half. They fed the ball to Luke Harangody constantly, who ended up taking just over 40% of all of Notre Dame’s field goal attempts. Ryan Ayers went 0 for 6 from the field, Hillesland didn’t even take a shot. Rutgers played similarly with three players taking almost all their shots. I think Notre Dame spreads the scoring around more evenly and that should open things up for the other scorers. I can still see this going under, however, with the Irish focusing a bit more on defense lately.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
6) It looks like Pekka Rinne has a case of the flu and so Dan Ellis will be starting for the Predators. Even though Ellis is not a bad goalie he has only 11 wins in 33 starts, and a lower save percentage than Rinne. Ovechkin and the Capitals should be able to take advantage, especially on power plays. Ellis is 5-8 at home, so while he may be playing tougher opponents at home the Predators clearly have a better winning percentage win Rinne is the goalie.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
7) Well, I like New York here because Francisco Elson and Charlie Villanueva will have a hard time preventing David Lee from racking up boards and points. Milwaukee has not beaten the Knicks since Redd and Bogut went down. Milwaukee was in better playoff position before Redd and Bogut were injured and as it stands have four teams less than two games behind them, with most of them having more games to play and thus more chances to earn wins. I like Milwaukee because Duhon, Chandler, and Robinson have all been struggling lately. If the Knicks are firing on all cylinders they should crush Milwaukee, but they haven’t. If Charlie Bell, Villanueva, Sessions, and Jefferson all have average games against a struggling Knicks team they should win easily. I’ll go with New York in the end, they’re due for a good showing.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) I think the Streakmaster was looking at Butler vs. Wright State or something when he set the line on this. In his ‘Game Blog’ he states they have scored 120 and 125 points in their last two matchups, but really they’ve scored 114 and 98 points. I expect the point total to change before the matchup locks, but it will have to go way down. Butler plays some seriously aggressive defense.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
10) Hawaii won at home against Fresno State by 26 points and again in Fresno by 4 points. In the home game Hawaii out rebounded the Bulldogs 43 to 20. In Fresno the Warriors out rebounded them 36 to 23. Fresno State will be basically giving Hawaii at least 6 points on tip-in shots. Fresno isn’t an 8 point favorite (some books have Hawaii -1, some Fresno -1 and most have it even). Fresno averages 43.8% on field goals, 67.1% from the line, and 34.4% from three so I don’t see them out-shooting a Hawaii team has taken an average of 8 more field goals than Fresno in each game. Fresno State’s biggest hope is to force more turnovers than they give and shoot well from the field.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
Monday, March 9, 2009
March 9th, 2009 Picks
Terrible day, yet I’m in a good mood. I guess the Jazz winning their 11th in a row, and a road game even, could explain it. And Denver losing to Sacramento, leaving Utah in sole possession of the Northwest Division lead and home court in the first round! As you can see from my quote I could tell it was going to be a bad day when AC Milan scored offsides I’ve seen referees whistle offsides when a player had, maybe, part of his foot laying past the last opposing defender. For these goals Inzaghi was completely past the Atalanta defenders when the pass was made to him.
Then I got greedy and went with bowling in an effort to get 5 picks in today, and lost that one instead of winning with the Rangers. The Islanders delivered nicely, but then I convinced myself to take Dallas, rather than Montreal. If you saw the blog when it was first posted I had Montreal as the pick. D’oh! Last but not least, Troy could not pull it off against South Alabama for a third time this season. Ach, mist! (Mist is German for crap.) If you got Orlando or Yang/Overton/Krauf then congratulations! Oh yea, and Hansbrough/Green did well, they just took 10 fewer free throws and 8 fewer shots than the Dukie Duo. So on to the picks!
1) Vejle @ AGF Aarhus – AGF Aarhus win
2) NCAAW: Richmond @ Charlotte – Charlotte
3) Frank Catalanotto vs. Justin Morneau – Morneau records more total bases
4) New Orleans @ Atlanta – Atlanta
5) New York Rangers @ Carolina Hurricanes – Carolina
6) College of Charleston @ Tennessee-Chattanooga – Charleston
7) Orlando Matic @ Detroit Pistons – Detroit
8) Niagara @ Siena – Niagara
9) St. Mary’s @ Gonzaga – 138 points or fewer
10) Los Angeles Lakers @ Portland – Los Angeles Lakers
11) South Alabama @ Arkansas-Little Rock – South Alabama
12) Vancouver Canucks @ Los Angeles Kings – Vancouver
As long as Luongo is in net for Vancouver they look good to go. Good luck!!
Analysis
1) The Danish SAS League has been on hiatus for a couple of months and this will be the second game since restarting play again. Vejle was at home and played FC Nordsjælland to a 1-1 draw and AGF Aarhus lost at home to Randers FC 2-1. Randers FC has scored 16 away goals in 9 matches (1.778 goals per game). Vejle has scored 5 away goals in 9 matches (0.556 goals per game). AGF Aarhus was missing Anders Kure and Frederik Krabbe on defense and they will be back for this match. Dioh Williams and Peter Graulund will not be playing so Nando Rafael will have to score for Aarhus. It would be surprising for Vejle to score at all, but I wouldn’t expect Aarhus to score more than one, so a draw is far too possible for me to be more confident on this pick.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
5) Lundqvist should be in net for the Rangers and Cam Ward should be in net for the Hurricanes. Both teams are playing great hockey recently but Carolina has looked better offensively. New York is playing for the second time in two days. Carolina has defeated their last two opponents, Calgary 6-1 and Tampa Bay 9-3, who both also happened to be playing the second game of a back to back. Ward also has a better record against the Rangers than Lundqvist has against Carolina. The Rangers are 1-7-2 in their past 10 road games with the lone victory coming against the New York Islanders. Carolina is 6-4-0 in their past 10 home games.
UPDATE: Stephen Valiquette will be in net for the Rangers for this one. The Rangers are 5-4-1 with Valiquette playing. He played when they defeated Carolina 3-2 at Madison Square Garden. He was also playing when they lost in Dallas 10-2.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
7) Detroit has been successful this season against Orlando, winning one game with Iverson and without Hamilton and winning the second without Iverson and with Hamilton. Rasheed Wallace has done as well as anybody defending Dwight Howard and Tayshaun Prince will do well slowing down Turkoglu or Lewis, whoever he’s guarding at the moment. Rodney Stuckey will have a tough time with Rafer Alston, but it goes both ways, with Stuckey scoring 22 on Alston in their last meeting. The Pistons had McDyess for only one of the games, but out rebounded the Magic both times. With Orlando on the second game in two nights the advantage goes to the Pistons.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
8) Niagara averages more rebounds than Siena and should out rebound them here, which means more second chance points for Niagara. Both teams will be tired a bit as this will be their third game in three days. Niagara’s stars played nearly 50 minutes in their double overtime win over Rider. Siena’s played under 30 minutes, except for Moore who went for 37 minutes. Still, I think Niagara’s experience in the tournament will have honed their skills, while Siena has had an easy route. Niagara will know what it feels like when the game is close and all the right plays need to be made. Siena may find themselves a bit out of sorts with their backs against a wall. It’s technically a home game for Siena, but there will be more Niagara fans there than usual, a lot more.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
10) With Boston, Orlando, and Cleveland all losing this weekend this is a chance for the Lakers to put some space between themselves and the top Eastern teams for #1 seed and home court throughout the playoffs. The Lakers lost in Portland both times they met last season. Portland has added Rudy Fernandez, Joel Pryzbilla, and Nicolas Batum to their team, but they have also lost Jarrett Jack to the Pacers, depending on Sergio Rodriguez and Jerryd Bayless to back up Steven Blake. Both teams seem improved from last year but the Lakers have more to play for this time.
Confidence: W9 streak or less
11) Arkansas-Little Rock, whose nick name also happens to be the Trojans, is the top team in the Sun Belt Conference. They have played South Alabama once before, in Alabama, and won the game by 2. They were out rebounded 40 to 28, however. South Alabama will have an advantage on second chance points. They did well last night in actually having fewer turnovers than Troy. If they can keep hold of the ball again tonight and can avoid foul trouble I think they have a decided advantage over these Trojans. Both teams are not good free throw shooting teams.
UPDATE: The leading scorer for Arkansas-Little Rock, Steven Moore, was kicked off the basketball team on the 23rd of February. Shane Edwards has picked up the slack, but I like South Alabama’s chances even more now.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
Then I got greedy and went with bowling in an effort to get 5 picks in today, and lost that one instead of winning with the Rangers. The Islanders delivered nicely, but then I convinced myself to take Dallas, rather than Montreal. If you saw the blog when it was first posted I had Montreal as the pick. D’oh! Last but not least, Troy could not pull it off against South Alabama for a third time this season. Ach, mist! (Mist is German for crap.) If you got Orlando or Yang/Overton/Krauf then congratulations! Oh yea, and Hansbrough/Green did well, they just took 10 fewer free throws and 8 fewer shots than the Dukie Duo. So on to the picks!
1) Vejle @ AGF Aarhus – AGF Aarhus win
2) NCAAW: Richmond @ Charlotte – Charlotte
3) Frank Catalanotto vs. Justin Morneau – Morneau records more total bases
4) New Orleans @ Atlanta – Atlanta
5) New York Rangers @ Carolina Hurricanes – Carolina
6) College of Charleston @ Tennessee-Chattanooga – Charleston
7) Orlando Matic @ Detroit Pistons – Detroit
8) Niagara @ Siena – Niagara
9) St. Mary’s @ Gonzaga – 138 points or fewer
10) Los Angeles Lakers @ Portland – Los Angeles Lakers
11) South Alabama @ Arkansas-Little Rock – South Alabama
12) Vancouver Canucks @ Los Angeles Kings – Vancouver
As long as Luongo is in net for Vancouver they look good to go. Good luck!!
Analysis
1) The Danish SAS League has been on hiatus for a couple of months and this will be the second game since restarting play again. Vejle was at home and played FC Nordsjælland to a 1-1 draw and AGF Aarhus lost at home to Randers FC 2-1. Randers FC has scored 16 away goals in 9 matches (1.778 goals per game). Vejle has scored 5 away goals in 9 matches (0.556 goals per game). AGF Aarhus was missing Anders Kure and Frederik Krabbe on defense and they will be back for this match. Dioh Williams and Peter Graulund will not be playing so Nando Rafael will have to score for Aarhus. It would be surprising for Vejle to score at all, but I wouldn’t expect Aarhus to score more than one, so a draw is far too possible for me to be more confident on this pick.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
5) Lundqvist should be in net for the Rangers and Cam Ward should be in net for the Hurricanes. Both teams are playing great hockey recently but Carolina has looked better offensively. New York is playing for the second time in two days. Carolina has defeated their last two opponents, Calgary 6-1 and Tampa Bay 9-3, who both also happened to be playing the second game of a back to back. Ward also has a better record against the Rangers than Lundqvist has against Carolina. The Rangers are 1-7-2 in their past 10 road games with the lone victory coming against the New York Islanders. Carolina is 6-4-0 in their past 10 home games.
UPDATE: Stephen Valiquette will be in net for the Rangers for this one. The Rangers are 5-4-1 with Valiquette playing. He played when they defeated Carolina 3-2 at Madison Square Garden. He was also playing when they lost in Dallas 10-2.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
7) Detroit has been successful this season against Orlando, winning one game with Iverson and without Hamilton and winning the second without Iverson and with Hamilton. Rasheed Wallace has done as well as anybody defending Dwight Howard and Tayshaun Prince will do well slowing down Turkoglu or Lewis, whoever he’s guarding at the moment. Rodney Stuckey will have a tough time with Rafer Alston, but it goes both ways, with Stuckey scoring 22 on Alston in their last meeting. The Pistons had McDyess for only one of the games, but out rebounded the Magic both times. With Orlando on the second game in two nights the advantage goes to the Pistons.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
8) Niagara averages more rebounds than Siena and should out rebound them here, which means more second chance points for Niagara. Both teams will be tired a bit as this will be their third game in three days. Niagara’s stars played nearly 50 minutes in their double overtime win over Rider. Siena’s played under 30 minutes, except for Moore who went for 37 minutes. Still, I think Niagara’s experience in the tournament will have honed their skills, while Siena has had an easy route. Niagara will know what it feels like when the game is close and all the right plays need to be made. Siena may find themselves a bit out of sorts with their backs against a wall. It’s technically a home game for Siena, but there will be more Niagara fans there than usual, a lot more.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
10) With Boston, Orlando, and Cleveland all losing this weekend this is a chance for the Lakers to put some space between themselves and the top Eastern teams for #1 seed and home court throughout the playoffs. The Lakers lost in Portland both times they met last season. Portland has added Rudy Fernandez, Joel Pryzbilla, and Nicolas Batum to their team, but they have also lost Jarrett Jack to the Pacers, depending on Sergio Rodriguez and Jerryd Bayless to back up Steven Blake. Both teams seem improved from last year but the Lakers have more to play for this time.
Confidence: W9 streak or less
11) Arkansas-Little Rock, whose nick name also happens to be the Trojans, is the top team in the Sun Belt Conference. They have played South Alabama once before, in Alabama, and won the game by 2. They were out rebounded 40 to 28, however. South Alabama will have an advantage on second chance points. They did well last night in actually having fewer turnovers than Troy. If they can keep hold of the ball again tonight and can avoid foul trouble I think they have a decided advantage over these Trojans. Both teams are not good free throw shooting teams.
UPDATE: The leading scorer for Arkansas-Little Rock, Steven Moore, was kicked off the basketball team on the 23rd of February. Shane Edwards has picked up the slack, but I like South Alabama’s chances even more now.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
Sunday, March 8, 2009
March 8th, 2009 Picks
I’m suspending the results entries, it’s a lot of time and pretty superfluous when one can just check the recaps and match reports. Carwin proved he’s for real with another early knockout. Overton slipped by with a win when Yang duffed a 7-foot putt for birdie. Doni killed AS Roma when he punched away a shot he could have caught, giving Udinese another shot instead of clearing the ball out. Ruoff hurt WVU by airballing a couple of threes at the end of that game. On the bright side Ottawa took out Buffalo on the second night of a back to back for the Sabres. Vancouver continued their hot streak with a win over San Jose. The UW/WSU over/under was close, but a couple of missed free throws ensured it stayed under. Personally, I went 2-3-0 on the day so I’m surprised only one monthly leader gained a game on me. I’ve got to start making up ground, however, so I’ll be gunnin’ for 5-0-0 tomorrow! On to the picks.
1) Atalanta @ AC Milan – 2 goals or fewer
2) Boston Bruins @ New York Rangers – New York Rangers
3) Chris Barnes/Rhino Page vs. Mika Koivuniemi/Mike Scroggins – Koivuniemi/Scroggins
4) Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics – Orlando
5) Yang, Overton, or Klauk vs. Rest of Field – Yang, Overton, or Klauk win
6) Carl Edwards vs. Kyle Busch – Busch has a better final position
7) Phoenix Coyotes @ New York Islanders – New York Islanders
8) Shaquille O’Neal vs. Tim Duncan – Duncan pts.
9) Middle Tennessee State vs. North Texas – Middle Tennessee State
10) Henderson and Singler vs. Hansbrough and Green – Hansbrough and Green pts.
11) Carlos Lee vs. Hanley Ramirez – Ramirez records more total bases
12) Montreal Canadiens @ Dallas Stars – Dallas
13) David Wright vs. Bobby Abreu – Abreu records more total bases
14) South Alabama vs. Troy – Troy
I’ll be taking the under in soccer, Koivuniemi/Scroggins, NY Islanders, Montreal, and Troy… oooorrrrr under in soccer, Rangers, Hansbrough/Green, Troy… OK, after some more thought Carey Price is going to get served by Dallas’ offense, so I’ll go with the Stars.
Analysis
1) First off, Atalanta have scored more than one goal in seven of their 26 games this season. Of those they have accomplished this only once on the road, scoring two goals against Palermo. Floccari and Pinto scored one goal each, and Floccari is out for this game, along with top goal scorers Doni and Vieri. AC Milan are ravaged by injuries, with Borriello and Ronaldinho out in the front, Kaka, Gattuso, and Ambrosini out at midfield, and Nesta, Gattuso, Kaladze, and Favalli out on defense. I think they will score between two and three goals, with the most likely score being Atalanta 1 – 1 AC Milan. So I will take the under here.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
2) The Boston Bruins have never split a back to back in their 12 this season. They’ve won both games nine times and lost both games three times. If Thomas or Rask is in net it would boost my personal confidence in this continuing since Fernandez has lost his last four games. Rask has only played once this year but shut out the Rangers in Boston. They lost their first and only match in Madison Square Garden this year, 3-2 in a shootout and have won once in New York in their last seven games there. If Fernandez is the goalie for Boston I would probably take the Rangers.
UPDATE: Fernandez is probable for the Bruins
Confidence: W4 streak or less (for Boston if Thomas/Rask in net, for NYR if Fernandez in net).
3) I like Koivuniemi and Scroggins here because they have scored significantly more in the previous rounds of the tournament than Barnes and Rhino. The format will be a three game, single elimination run-off. The lowest scoring player in each game will be eliminated. It should take approximately 1.5 hours for all three games and the matchup could potentially end after 1 hour with one side or the other being eliminated in the first two games.
Confidence: W2 streak or less (i.e. 75% confident)
8) Shaq has been on a scoring run recently, putting up big numbers. Tim Duncan averages more per game at home than Shaquille O’Neal does on the road. Tim Duncan has won this prop in their past three meetings 32-15, 25-23, and 20-13. I would take this matchup except for that Duncan seems to still be battling a minor knee injury which kept him sidelined for a week at the end of February.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
10) Singler and Henderson have been scoring more, recently, but Hansbrough and Green have been scoring more at home. Singler and Henderson outscored the Tarheels duo when they played at Duke earlier in the year. Hansbrough and Green have a 1.495 points per shot average compared to 1.325 for Henderson and Singler. I definitely have to go with the home duo who score more for each shot taken. Of course, there’s always the possibility one or the other side will be sidelined with fouls or by injury.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
14) Troy has beaten Southern Alabama twice this season, once at home and once away. Both schools need to win to have a chance at making the NCAA tournament. Troy won the first game in Alabama by 24 with an 18 point lead at half time. They won the second game at home by five. Both wins were mainly due to shooting a higher percentage across the board than Southern Alabama. Over the course of the season both schools shoot nearly the same average. South Alabama looks like they could be a good upset pick, but I think Troy’s defense is the reason South Alabama has shot poorly against Troy.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
1) Atalanta @ AC Milan – 2 goals or fewer
2) Boston Bruins @ New York Rangers – New York Rangers
3) Chris Barnes/Rhino Page vs. Mika Koivuniemi/Mike Scroggins – Koivuniemi/Scroggins
4) Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics – Orlando
5) Yang, Overton, or Klauk vs. Rest of Field – Yang, Overton, or Klauk win
6) Carl Edwards vs. Kyle Busch – Busch has a better final position
7) Phoenix Coyotes @ New York Islanders – New York Islanders
8) Shaquille O’Neal vs. Tim Duncan – Duncan pts.
9) Middle Tennessee State vs. North Texas – Middle Tennessee State
10) Henderson and Singler vs. Hansbrough and Green – Hansbrough and Green pts.
11) Carlos Lee vs. Hanley Ramirez – Ramirez records more total bases
12) Montreal Canadiens @ Dallas Stars – Dallas
13) David Wright vs. Bobby Abreu – Abreu records more total bases
14) South Alabama vs. Troy – Troy
I’ll be taking the under in soccer, Koivuniemi/Scroggins, NY Islanders, Montreal, and Troy… oooorrrrr under in soccer, Rangers, Hansbrough/Green, Troy… OK, after some more thought Carey Price is going to get served by Dallas’ offense, so I’ll go with the Stars.
Analysis
1) First off, Atalanta have scored more than one goal in seven of their 26 games this season. Of those they have accomplished this only once on the road, scoring two goals against Palermo. Floccari and Pinto scored one goal each, and Floccari is out for this game, along with top goal scorers Doni and Vieri. AC Milan are ravaged by injuries, with Borriello and Ronaldinho out in the front, Kaka, Gattuso, and Ambrosini out at midfield, and Nesta, Gattuso, Kaladze, and Favalli out on defense. I think they will score between two and three goals, with the most likely score being Atalanta 1 – 1 AC Milan. So I will take the under here.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
2) The Boston Bruins have never split a back to back in their 12 this season. They’ve won both games nine times and lost both games three times. If Thomas or Rask is in net it would boost my personal confidence in this continuing since Fernandez has lost his last four games. Rask has only played once this year but shut out the Rangers in Boston. They lost their first and only match in Madison Square Garden this year, 3-2 in a shootout and have won once in New York in their last seven games there. If Fernandez is the goalie for Boston I would probably take the Rangers.
UPDATE: Fernandez is probable for the Bruins
Confidence: W4 streak or less (for Boston if Thomas/Rask in net, for NYR if Fernandez in net).
3) I like Koivuniemi and Scroggins here because they have scored significantly more in the previous rounds of the tournament than Barnes and Rhino. The format will be a three game, single elimination run-off. The lowest scoring player in each game will be eliminated. It should take approximately 1.5 hours for all three games and the matchup could potentially end after 1 hour with one side or the other being eliminated in the first two games.
Confidence: W2 streak or less (i.e. 75% confident)
8) Shaq has been on a scoring run recently, putting up big numbers. Tim Duncan averages more per game at home than Shaquille O’Neal does on the road. Tim Duncan has won this prop in their past three meetings 32-15, 25-23, and 20-13. I would take this matchup except for that Duncan seems to still be battling a minor knee injury which kept him sidelined for a week at the end of February.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
10) Singler and Henderson have been scoring more, recently, but Hansbrough and Green have been scoring more at home. Singler and Henderson outscored the Tarheels duo when they played at Duke earlier in the year. Hansbrough and Green have a 1.495 points per shot average compared to 1.325 for Henderson and Singler. I definitely have to go with the home duo who score more for each shot taken. Of course, there’s always the possibility one or the other side will be sidelined with fouls or by injury.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
14) Troy has beaten Southern Alabama twice this season, once at home and once away. Both schools need to win to have a chance at making the NCAA tournament. Troy won the first game in Alabama by 24 with an 18 point lead at half time. They won the second game at home by five. Both wins were mainly due to shooting a higher percentage across the board than Southern Alabama. Over the course of the season both schools shoot nearly the same average. South Alabama looks like they could be a good upset pick, but I think Troy’s defense is the reason South Alabama has shot poorly against Troy.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
Saturday, March 7, 2009
March 7th, 2009 Picks
Man, what a day, 2-6-2 on my picks overall and 2-2-2 for my SFTC picks. I started the day on the leaderboard, hoping to move up a game on the leaders, but ended up just off of it. The Sparta/Willem match was a real punch in the gut as well. I’ve rarely been as confident on a soccer match as I was for the Sparta victory. Billups played an average game. Coming off a game the night before he’s averaged 12 points in the last six now. Okur was sub-par and had plenty of opportunities, but missed a free throw and some open threes. Calgary got smashed by Carolina. It’s not all Kiprusoff sitting that did them in either; the other five on the ice were thoroughly outplayed. Cleveland played really soft on defense and it cost them the chance to make a game of things. Calderon had such a bad game that Jay Triano was playing Jason Kapono down the stretch instead. Well, tomorrow is another day and I’ll bounce back! So on to the picks.
1) Udinese @ AS Roma – AS Roma wins
2) Manchester United @ Fulham – Manchester United wins
3) Y.E. Yang vs. Jeff Overton – Yang cards a lower front 9 score
4) Justin Morneau vs. Derek Jeter – Morneau records more total bases
5) Missouri @ Texas A&M – Texas A&M
6) Todd Bodine vs. Ron Hornaday Jr. – Hornaday Jr.
7) Maryland @ Virginia – Virginia
8) Minnesota Wild @ Los Angeles Kings – Minnesota
9) LSU @ Auburn – LSU
10) Carlos Lee vs. Alex Rios – Rios records more total bases
11) Washington State @ Washington – 129 points or more
12) Buffalo Sabers @ Ottawa Senators – Ottawa
13) Louisville @ West Virginia – West Virginia
14) San Jose Sharks @ Vancouver Canucks – Vancouver
15) Nevada @ Boise State – Boise State
16) Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Shane Carwin – Gonzaga wins
Analysis
1) AS Roma is at home with a record of 9-2-1 (W-D-L), while Udinese is 2-3-8 away from home. AS Roma is playing for an automatic berth in the Champions League next year and Udinese is just trying to stay abroad of relegation. Udinese defeated visiting AS Roma 3-1 in a match on October 25th. At that point in the season Udinese were tied with Inter for 1st place in Serie A and AS Roma was in the relegation zone. So, was Udinese playing above themselves at the time? Or are AS Roma playing above themselves since then? Two of Udinese’s defenders from that match are missing for today’s. Totti is out, but Menez, Baptista, and Vucinic are all named to the team for today. (http://www.asroma.it/NewsDoc.aspx?Categoria=ITArchivioNews&Documento=10108). AS Roma may rest some starters, especially those who have been ill or are nursing an injury, but they will have many others responsible for their 9 wins at home playing.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
2) Manchester United is the talk of Europe and their potential for winning five European and English tournaments this year. They won the Carling Cup at Old Trafford against Tottenham Hotspur, currently 13th in the Premier League, but it took penalty kicks for it to be decided. They lost 1-0 when visiting a Derby County team which currently sits in 16th place in the 2nd tier English League Championship and had only won 7 of 17 matches at home! In both of these matches O’Shea, Tevez, Rooney, Ronaldo, and others were playing, some as substitutes and some as starters. The common thread is that Edwin van der Sar was not on goal. Van der Sar will be resting for this FA Cup 1st leg against Fulham. Fulham is in the 10th spot in the Premier League and have lost only twice at home. Manchester United have drawn or lost to worse teams than Fulham in their tournament runs, and I think they will draw at best here, knowing they can return to Old Trafford to advance to the next round.
UPDATE: ManU is playing Edwin van der Sar, and the majority of their starters for this one. They must have caught wind that people were betting against them.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
3) Both Yang and Overton have been playing very well in the first two rounds of The Honda Classic. Yang’s statistics such as % of greens in regulation, and putting average are above his career long averages (plus 7.9% GIR and plus 0.071 putts per GIR). The same statistics for Overton are also inflated from his career averages and to a greater degree (plus 10.7% GIR and plus 0.184 putts per GIR). Yang is expected to do better from these stats and Overton is more likely to see a larger drop in play as they go into the third and fourth rounds.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
5) Missouri is coming off a great home win over the Oklahoma Sooners, a game in which they dominated from beginning to end. Texas A&M is seeking their sixth consecutive conference win on their home court. Young teams can have a tendency to have a drop in play after an impressive win, especially when their next game is away from home.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
9) Auburn will give LSU a run for their money just as they did in their previous game at LSU. The Tigers will be looking to recover from a tough loss against Vanderbilt in their most recent game where they cut an 11 point half time deficit to 1 with 5 minutes to go but were unable to score thereafter. LSU are a good enough team to shake off that loss and give their best against Auburn.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
11) Every one of Washington’s conference home games have gone over 129 points. Five of Washington State’s eight conference away games have gone under. Two of the three that went over were against UCLA and California, two of the top three schools in the PAC-10. The other top three team is Washington who averages more points per game than either UCLA or California. Washington State can play a 65-55 type of game against Arizona State, who average 69.2 points per game, but Washington is exactly the type of team they haven’t been able to hold under 70.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
12) Buffalo has lost 3 of 4 games against Ottawa this season, twice at home and once on the road. Their one victory came at home. Ottawa’s home record is 14-12-6 and Buffalo’s away record is 14-13-5. Mikael Tellqvist may make his first start for the Sabers this season. Brian Elliott is the most likely goalie for Ottawa and is 2-0 against Buffalo this season with a 1.50 GAA and 0.952 save percentage.
UPDATE: Looks like Lalime will start over Tellqvist, but not for certain. It would improve Buffalo’s chances for victory, but not by enough to make me pick them to win.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
13) Remember, this is the West Virginia team which laid Villanova out cold to end their two game streak of scoring over 100 points. They dug themselves into a deep hole in their previous matchup and were down 20 at the half, then fought back to end up losing by six. The Mountaineers shot poorly in that game, only 35.6% on 59 field goals, 21.4% on 14 three pointers. That’s 6% and 11% below their season averages. West Virginia will be prepared for Louisville’s athleticism and will take care of the ball more than they did in the first half of that game. West Virginia is 12-2 at home, losing to Pittsburgh and Connecticut. Louisville is 7-1 on the road losing to Notre Dame. If West Virginia can avoid giving up many easy baskets inside and can take care of the ball for 40 minutes I think they will win.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
16) Shane Carwin has an impressive undefeated record with each one happening in the first round. Carwin’s opponents have been beginners and fighters with losing records for the most part. Gabriel Gonzaga has three losses, but two of those are to Werdum and one a third round TKO at the hands of Randy Couture. Gonzaga knocked out Mirko Cro Cop with a kick in a previous fight. Gonzaga has more experience and toughness as he has gone toe to toe with some of the top fighters out there. Either Carwin will wilt in the face of a challenge or he will prove he really does deserve to be one of the featured fighters in UFC.
Confidence: W2 or less
1) Udinese @ AS Roma – AS Roma wins
2) Manchester United @ Fulham – Manchester United wins
3) Y.E. Yang vs. Jeff Overton – Yang cards a lower front 9 score
4) Justin Morneau vs. Derek Jeter – Morneau records more total bases
5) Missouri @ Texas A&M – Texas A&M
6) Todd Bodine vs. Ron Hornaday Jr. – Hornaday Jr.
7) Maryland @ Virginia – Virginia
8) Minnesota Wild @ Los Angeles Kings – Minnesota
9) LSU @ Auburn – LSU
10) Carlos Lee vs. Alex Rios – Rios records more total bases
11) Washington State @ Washington – 129 points or more
12) Buffalo Sabers @ Ottawa Senators – Ottawa
13) Louisville @ West Virginia – West Virginia
14) San Jose Sharks @ Vancouver Canucks – Vancouver
15) Nevada @ Boise State – Boise State
16) Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Shane Carwin – Gonzaga wins
Analysis
1) AS Roma is at home with a record of 9-2-1 (W-D-L), while Udinese is 2-3-8 away from home. AS Roma is playing for an automatic berth in the Champions League next year and Udinese is just trying to stay abroad of relegation. Udinese defeated visiting AS Roma 3-1 in a match on October 25th. At that point in the season Udinese were tied with Inter for 1st place in Serie A and AS Roma was in the relegation zone. So, was Udinese playing above themselves at the time? Or are AS Roma playing above themselves since then? Two of Udinese’s defenders from that match are missing for today’s. Totti is out, but Menez, Baptista, and Vucinic are all named to the team for today. (http://www.asroma.it/NewsDoc.aspx?Categoria=ITArchivioNews&Documento=10108). AS Roma may rest some starters, especially those who have been ill or are nursing an injury, but they will have many others responsible for their 9 wins at home playing.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
2) Manchester United is the talk of Europe and their potential for winning five European and English tournaments this year. They won the Carling Cup at Old Trafford against Tottenham Hotspur, currently 13th in the Premier League, but it took penalty kicks for it to be decided. They lost 1-0 when visiting a Derby County team which currently sits in 16th place in the 2nd tier English League Championship and had only won 7 of 17 matches at home! In both of these matches O’Shea, Tevez, Rooney, Ronaldo, and others were playing, some as substitutes and some as starters. The common thread is that Edwin van der Sar was not on goal. Van der Sar will be resting for this FA Cup 1st leg against Fulham. Fulham is in the 10th spot in the Premier League and have lost only twice at home. Manchester United have drawn or lost to worse teams than Fulham in their tournament runs, and I think they will draw at best here, knowing they can return to Old Trafford to advance to the next round.
UPDATE: ManU is playing Edwin van der Sar, and the majority of their starters for this one. They must have caught wind that people were betting against them.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
3) Both Yang and Overton have been playing very well in the first two rounds of The Honda Classic. Yang’s statistics such as % of greens in regulation, and putting average are above his career long averages (plus 7.9% GIR and plus 0.071 putts per GIR). The same statistics for Overton are also inflated from his career averages and to a greater degree (plus 10.7% GIR and plus 0.184 putts per GIR). Yang is expected to do better from these stats and Overton is more likely to see a larger drop in play as they go into the third and fourth rounds.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
5) Missouri is coming off a great home win over the Oklahoma Sooners, a game in which they dominated from beginning to end. Texas A&M is seeking their sixth consecutive conference win on their home court. Young teams can have a tendency to have a drop in play after an impressive win, especially when their next game is away from home.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
9) Auburn will give LSU a run for their money just as they did in their previous game at LSU. The Tigers will be looking to recover from a tough loss against Vanderbilt in their most recent game where they cut an 11 point half time deficit to 1 with 5 minutes to go but were unable to score thereafter. LSU are a good enough team to shake off that loss and give their best against Auburn.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
11) Every one of Washington’s conference home games have gone over 129 points. Five of Washington State’s eight conference away games have gone under. Two of the three that went over were against UCLA and California, two of the top three schools in the PAC-10. The other top three team is Washington who averages more points per game than either UCLA or California. Washington State can play a 65-55 type of game against Arizona State, who average 69.2 points per game, but Washington is exactly the type of team they haven’t been able to hold under 70.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
12) Buffalo has lost 3 of 4 games against Ottawa this season, twice at home and once on the road. Their one victory came at home. Ottawa’s home record is 14-12-6 and Buffalo’s away record is 14-13-5. Mikael Tellqvist may make his first start for the Sabers this season. Brian Elliott is the most likely goalie for Ottawa and is 2-0 against Buffalo this season with a 1.50 GAA and 0.952 save percentage.
UPDATE: Looks like Lalime will start over Tellqvist, but not for certain. It would improve Buffalo’s chances for victory, but not by enough to make me pick them to win.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
13) Remember, this is the West Virginia team which laid Villanova out cold to end their two game streak of scoring over 100 points. They dug themselves into a deep hole in their previous matchup and were down 20 at the half, then fought back to end up losing by six. The Mountaineers shot poorly in that game, only 35.6% on 59 field goals, 21.4% on 14 three pointers. That’s 6% and 11% below their season averages. West Virginia will be prepared for Louisville’s athleticism and will take care of the ball more than they did in the first half of that game. West Virginia is 12-2 at home, losing to Pittsburgh and Connecticut. Louisville is 7-1 on the road losing to Notre Dame. If West Virginia can avoid giving up many easy baskets inside and can take care of the ball for 40 minutes I think they will win.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
16) Shane Carwin has an impressive undefeated record with each one happening in the first round. Carwin’s opponents have been beginners and fighters with losing records for the most part. Gabriel Gonzaga has three losses, but two of those are to Werdum and one a third round TKO at the hands of Randy Couture. Gonzaga knocked out Mirko Cro Cop with a kick in a previous fight. Gonzaga has more experience and toughness as he has gone toe to toe with some of the top fighters out there. Either Carwin will wilt in the face of a challenge or he will prove he really does deserve to be one of the featured fighters in UFC.
Confidence: W2 or less
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